Month: November 2022

How UNC Can Make the College Football Playoff

The Tar Heels currently sit at number 15 in the CFP rankings. According to fivethirtyeight.com, they have a 6% chance to make the college football playoff. So what has to happen for the Tar Heels to leapfrog 11 teams and get into the top four?

First things first. They have to win out, and that includes the ACC championship over Clemson. Clemson is one of the teams in front of them. So that’s one team passed.

Also, I think just by winning out, the Tar Heels will leapfrog Penn State. I don’t see the committee putting two-loss Penn State in the CFP over one-loss, ACC champion Carolina. That’s two teams passed.

Then there are head-to-head matchups of two teams ahead of UNC where somebody has to lose, and the loser is likely to fall behind the Tar Heels. USC-UCLA, Oregon-Utah, and Alabama-Ole Miss fall into that category. That’s five teams passed. We’ve gotten the Tar Heels up to number 10.

LSU needs to lose a game. If it doesn’t happen against Arkansas or Texas A&M, Georgia will see to it in the SEC championship. That’s six teams passed.

So let’s review where we are. We’ve gotten the Tar Heels up to number 9. The eight teams in front of them are Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, TCU, the Oregon-Utah winner, the USC-UCLA winner, and the Alabama-Ole Miss winner. Who else can the Tar Heels leapfrog?

Let’s start with TCU. The Horned Frogs still have to play at Texas, at Baylor, Iowa State at home, and probably the Big 12 Championship. Fivethirtyeight gives TCU only a 10% chance to win out. Now the question is, is one TCU loss enough for UNC to pass them? It’s hard to say, and I’m not sure what the committee would do in that situation. It might depend on which game they lose. If TCU loses one regular season game but still wins the Big 12 Championship, I think they would still be ahead of the Tar Heels. The only safe bet for UNC is for TCU to lose two games. The good news is, with TCU’s remaining schedule, there’s a pretty good chance of that happening. So count TCU as a team the Tar Heels would have a decent chance of passing.

Then there’s the Pac-12. We’ve already noted that two of the four teams ahead of the Tar Heels are guaranteed to lose due to head-to-head matchups. But there are lots more opportunities for Pac-12 teams to lose. USC still has to play Notre Dame. Oregon, in addition to their game with Utah, still has to play Washington and at Oregon State. And then there’s the Pac-12 championship game. According to fivethirtyeight, Oregon has an 80% chance of losing at least one more game, USC 85%, UCLA 84%, and Utah 73%.

Other than all four Pac-12 teams losing, the best case scenario for the Tar Heels would probably be for Utah to win out and then to beat the USC-UCLA winner in the Pac-12 championship. This would mean at least one more loss for Oregon, USC, and UCLA. It’s not certain that two-loss Utah would remain ahead of one-loss UNC in the CFP standings.

The Pac-12 picture is complex, but suffice it to say that there is a good chance that the Tar Heels could pass all four.

Then there is the Alabama-Ole Miss winner. If it’s Ole Miss, they still have two more tough games remaining, at Arkansas and Mississippi State. The Rebels have only a 10% chance to win out according to fivethirtyeight. The other issue is that it’s unlikely that the Alabama-Ole Miss winner will play in the SEC Championship game. Will the committee put an SEC team that didn’t win its division in the playoff over one-loss ACC Champion Carolina? I don’t think so, although a one-loss Ole Miss team vs. one-loss UNC would be a tough call.

So now we’ve come up with plausible scenarios where the Tar Heels leapfrog everyone but Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and Tennessee. Which of those four teams is leap-able?

Georgia… I don’t see that happening. They would have to lose two games, and they aren’t going to.

Tennessee still has a game at South Carolina. I don’t think they’ll lose, but it’s possible.

That brings us to Ohio State and Michigan. Obviously, they still have to play each other. So the first question is, could Carolina jump over the loser of that game? If it’s Ohio State, I say no. If it’s Michigan… I still don’t think so, unless the Buckeyes blow them out. That would be an interesting committee decision, to decide between a one-loss Big 10 team that didn’t win its division and one-loss ACC champion UNC. My guess is the Big 10 team would get the nod.

So I think the Tar Heels are going to need an upset. They need either Tennessee to lose another game, or for Ohio State or Michigan to lose another game besides their head-to-head matchup. Ohio State has a game at Maryland, Michigan has a game against Illinois, and of course there’s the Big 10 Championship.

How likely is all of this? Well, the good news for Tar Heel fans is that while UNC has but a 6% chance of making the CFP overall, that probability goes up to 51% if they win out. The teams they have to leapfrog have a lot of tough games left and most of them are going to lose one along the way. Based on the scenarios above, I can easily see the Tar Heels getting to number 5 if they win out. But passing one of the current top four is going to require an upset and is a bit of a stretch.

Armando Bacot

Since I recently finished my series on the ACC’s 100 greatest players, I’ve been thinking about Armando Bacot and where he might fit into that group eventually. Bacot has a chance to do some amazing things. Let’s start with this. Last season, Bacot became the first ACC player in 66 years to grab 500 rebounds.

ACC 500 Rebound Seasons:

  • Dickie Hemric, 1955, 515
  • Ronnie Shavlik, 1955, 581
  • Ronnie Shavlik, 1956, 545
  • Armando Bacot, 2022, 511

Bacot needs 498 rebounds this season to become the fifth player in ACC history to have 1500 career rebounds.

ACC Career Rebound Leaders:

  • Hemric, 1802 (partially in Southern Conference)
  • Tim Duncan, 1570
  • Shavlik, 1567 (in 3 years)
  • Ralph Sampson, 1511

Bacot also has a chance to become the ACC’s 43rd 2000 point scorer. He needs 699 points. For reference, he had 635 last year. So it could happen. He needs one more bucket per game than he had last year.

Let’s play out the best-case scenario. Let’s say Bacot is National Player of the Year, ACC Player of the Year, and gets to 2000 career points and 1500 career rebounds – none of which is farfetched. Where would he rank in the Top 100? I think he’d be in the 20s, somewhere around Mark Price and Shavlik, in that range. If the Tar Heels could win the national championship, also not farfetched, maybe he could sneak into the teens, into Mike Gminski territory.

If Bacot is ACC Player of the Year and first team All-America, even if he doesn’t do all those other things, he’s probably a Top 50 player, similar to a Shelden Williams.

It hurts Bacot a bit that he didn’t win ACC Player of the Year last year. With all due respect to Alondes Williams, I think that vote was questionable.

When is the last time that an ACC player as good as Bacot came back for another year? I think you have to go back to Tyler Hansbrough in 2009. Hansbrough’s play slipped a little bit in his senior year, but he still had a great year, and the Tar Heels won the national championship. We’ll see how things play out for Bacot.

ACC Bowl Outlook 11/6

I’ve never done an ACC football post before, but today seems like a good day to do it. With three weeks to go, the ACC’s bowl prospects are starting to become at least a little bit clearer.

It’s not that easy to find concrete information on how bowl teams are selected. Most fans know that you have to win six games against FCS opponents in order to qualify. Except when you don’t; 5-7 teams can qualify if there aren’t enough six-win teams to fill the docket.

Some conferences have a clear pecking order among the bowls, but the ACC does not. There are Tier One bowls and Tier Two bowls, but within those groupings, it seems that specific selections are made in a smoke-filled room.

But one thing is very clear: the ACC champion goes to the Orange Bowl, unless that team makes the CFP, in which case the next highest-ranked team goes to the Orange Bowl. That has come into play in past years with Clemson making the CFP, but it almost certainly will not this year. It is difficult to imagine Clemson or UNC making the CFP this year. So I’m going to simplify things by saying that the ACC champion will be in the Orange Bowl.

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic division and a spot in the ACC championship game. UNC is very close; one more win would clinch the division, and even if UNC were to lose out, they could still make it with some help.

At this point, the ACC has eight bowl-eligible teams (Clemson, NC State, Syracuse, Louisville, FSU, Wake Forest, UNC, and Duke), with Pitt very likely to be a ninth. And there’s a good chance that will be it; I assess Miami’s chances of becoming bowl-eligible at 29%, Georgia Tech’s at 11%, and Virginia’s at 10%.

So most likely, the ACC will have nine bowl eligible teams. Then there’s Notre Dame. As a quasi-independent, Notre Dame’s relationship with the bowls is complicated, but because the Irish have three losses, it’s a little easier this year. Basically, they will take one of the ACC’s Tier One bowl slots. I guess you can’t completely rule out a 9-3 Notre Dame team getting into a New Year’s Six bowl, but that would require them winning at USC, and even then I’m not sure they’d make it.

So let’s summarize. The ACC will probably have nine bowl-eligible teams, plus Notre Dame. There are eight Tier One bowls, plus the Orange Bowl, and three Tier Two bowls. To complicate matters, the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Outback Bowl) is traditionally a Big Ten – SEC matchup, but if the Orange Bowl selects a Big Ten team instead of an SEC team to play against the ACC team, then the ACC gets that slot in the ReliaQuest Bowl, which becomes a ninth Tier One Bowl. Here is the rundown in list form:

ACC Champion goes to the Orange Bowl (if not selected for CFP)

Tier One Bowls:

  • Cheez-It Bowl – Orlando
  • Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Charlotte
  • Fenway Bowl – Fenway Park
  • Military Bowl – Annapolis, MD
  • New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Yankee Stadium
  • ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl (only if Big Ten is selected for Orange Bowl) – Tampa
  • Holiday Bowl – San Diego
  • Gator Bowl – Jacksonville
  • Sun Bowl – El Paso, TX

Tier Two Bowls:

  • Gasparilla Bowl – Tampa
  • Birmingham Bowl – Birmingham
  • First Responder Bowl – Dallas

Right now, it seems unlikely that the ACC will get a team into the ReliaQuest Bowl. That probably comes down to Penn State or Illinois being selected for the Orange Bowl over Alabama or Ole Miss. The only chance I see of that happening is if Alabama and Ole Miss both lose another game. Even then I’m not sure. ACC fans should be pulling for this scenario. Best chance would probably be Ole Miss beating Alabama then losing to Mississippi State.

Assuming for the moment that the ACC doesn’t get a spot in the CFP or the ReliaQuest, here’s how I see it playing out, team by team, for the teams that are still relevant.

Clemson

Games Remaining: vs. Louisville, vs. Miami, vs. South Carolina

Possible Records: 11-1 (41% chance), 10-2 (44%), 9-3 (14%), 8-4 (1%)

Bowl Possibilities: As mentioned earlier, it’s hard for me to see Clemson making the CFP, even if they win out. They would need a lot of help. And I give them only about a 25% chance of winning out, including the championship. If the Tigers do win the ACC title, they’ll head to the Orange Bowl. If they lose the title game, it could get interesting. The Cheez-It Bowl would be the obvious choice, but they played there last year. My guess is they would wind up going to the Gator Bowl.

Duke

Games Remaining: vs. Virginia Tech, at Pitt, vs. Wake Forest

Possible Records: 9-3 (8%), 8-4 (34%), 7-5 (43%), 6-6 (15%)

Bowl Possibilities: Duke seems like a good fit for the Pinstripe Bowl (although the Pinstripe may go for Syracuse). The Military and Fenway Bowls are also possibilities. The Blue Devils can still win the Coastal Division if they win out and UNC loses out; I’d give that about a 1% chance of happening.

Florida State

Games Remaining: at Syracuse, Louisiana, Florida

Possible Records: 9-3 (20%), 8-4 (44%), 7-5 (30%), 6-6 (6%)

Bowl Possibilities: Florida State is an attractive team. If they could win out, it’s possible the Gator Bowl would pick them over Notre Dame. Otherwise, they’re probably headed to the Sun Bowl, Holiday Bowl, or Military Bowl. They could be a candidate for Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte if NC State doesn’t go there for whatever reason.

Georgia Tech

Games Remaining: vs. Miami, at UNC, at Georgia

Possible Records: 7-5 (<1%), 6-6 (11%), 5-7 (47%), 4-8 (43%)

Bowl Possibilities: probably not gonna happen. Tier Two bowl if they sneak in.

Louisville

Games Remaining: at Clemson, vs. NC State, at Kentucky

Possible Records: 9-3 (10%), 8-4 (36%), 7-5 (41%), 6-6 (14%)

Bowl Possibilities: The Cardinals have a similar profile to Florida State and will likely be competing with the Seminoles for the same bowls (Sun, Holiday, Military). They have a tough schedule remaining, however, and will be hard-pressed to do better than 7-5. I’d give them a little higher probability than the Seminoles of dropping to the Military Bowl.

Miami

Games Remaining: at Georgia Tech, at Clemson, vs. Pitt

Possible Records: 7-5 (3%), 6-6 (26%), 5-7 (48%), 4-8 (23%)

Bowl Possibilities: I don’t think it’s going to happen because the ‘Canes are terrible. If they do manage to make it to 6-6, they’ll be relegated to one of the Tier 2 bowls, maybe the Gasparilla.

NC State

Games Remaining: vs. Boston College, at Louisville, at UNC

Possible Records: 10-2 (15%), 9-3 (45%), 8-4 (35%), 7-5 (5%)

Bowl Possibilities: If the Wolfpack could win out, they would probably force their way into either the Gator or Cheez-It Bowl, although they’ve been to the Gator Bowl quite a lot recently. Otherwise, they probably wind up in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte. I don’t see them going back to the Holiday Bowl after last year’s fiasco. The Sun Bowl is a possibility.

North Carolina

Games Remaining: at Wake Forest, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. NC State

Possible Records: 11-1 (18%), 10-2 (44%), 9-3 (32%), 8-4 (6%)

Bowl Possibilities: If UNC wins the ACC, they’ll go to the Orange Bowl. If they lose, they’ll probably go to the Cheez-It Bowl. Things would get interesting if UNC finishes 9-4; in that scenario, they could fall farther to a Sun or Holiday.

Notre Dame

Games Remaining: at Navy, vs. Boston College, at USC

Possible Records: 9-3 (43%), 8-4 (47%), 7-5 (9%), 6-6 (<1%)

Bowl Possibilities: 9-3 Notre Dame would be very attractive, and you wonder if they could even squeeze into a New Year’s six bowl, considering that would involve winning at USC in their last game. It stinks for the ACC, but even 8-4 Notre Dame would likely get a Cheez-It or Gator Bowl slot over an ACC team.

Pitt

Games Remaining: at Virginia, vs. Duke, at Miami

Possible Records: 8-4 (27%), 7-5 (44%), 6-6 (25%), 5-7 (4%)

Bowl Possibilities: Pitt has the easiest remaining schedule of any team listed here. But I’m not sure how much it matters for their bowl prospects. They seem likely to go to one of the northern bowls: Military, Fenway, or Pinstripe. Pitt could also fall to the second tier, especially if they don’t win out.

Syracuse

Games Remaining: vs. Florida State, at Wake Forest, at Boston College

Possible Records: 9-3 (14%), 8-4 (41%), 7-5 (36%), 6-6 (8%)

Bowl Possibilities: The Orange are reeling after losing three straight, and it doesn’t get any easier with FSU and Wake the next two weeks. They seem like a good bet for the Fenway or Pinstripe Bowls. They are one of the teams that could fall to the second tier.

Virginia

Games Remaining: vs. Pitt, vs. Coastal Carolina, at Virginia Tech

Possible Records: 6-6 (10%), 5-7 (35%), 4-8 (40%), 3-9 (15%)

Bowl Possibilities: The Cavaliers have a faint pulse. If they can win out, they’ll wind up in a Tier Two bowl.

Wake Forest

Games Remaining: vs. UNC, vs. Syracuse, at Duke

Possible Records: 9-3 (19%), 8-4 (42%), 7-5 (31%), 6-6 (8%)

Bowl Possibilities: Wake could go in a lot of directions. A good case can be made for winning or losing each of their last three games. A 9-3 or 8-4 Wake team probably winds up in the Holiday or Sun Bowl. A 7-5 or 6-6 Wake team, which would mean a losing record in the ACC, is more likely to fall to Military, Fenway, or even a Tier Two.