Bracketology 3/12

There were a few games involving bubble teams yesterday, in games they needed to win. Not because it helps their resume, but more because losing hurts it. NC State, Indiana, and Arkansas won; Stanford and Xavier did not. Stanford is now my last team in the field.

SeedTeam 1Team 2Team 3Team 4Team 5Team 6
1KansasBaylorGonzagaDayton
2VillanovaFlorida StateSan Diego St.Maryland
3CreightonKentuckyMichigan St.Duke
4Seton HallOregonAuburnLouisville
5West VirginiaButlerWisconsinOhio St.
6LSUBYUPenn StateVirginia
7IowaHoustonArizonaMarquette
8ColoradoIllinoisMichiganRutgers
9St. Mary’sProvidenceFloridaOklahoma
10Arizona St.USCUtah StateWichita St.
11XavierTexas TechIndianaRichmondUCLAStanford
12North TexasE. Tenn. St.YaleVermont
13AkronNew Mexico St.Stephen F. AustinE. Washington
14BelmontHofstraLibertyBradley
15N. KentuckyUC IrvineN. Dakota St.Little Rock
16Boston U.WinthropSienaRobert MorrisPrairie View A&MNC Central

Checking In: Boston U., Northern Kentucky, Robert Morris

Dropping Out: Colgate, Wright State, St. Francis (PA)

Last 4 Byes: Arizona State, Wichita St., Indiana, Texas Tech

Last 4 In: Xavier, UCLA, Richmond, Stanford

First 4 Out: Texas, NC State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State

Next 4 Out: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Memphis, St. Louis

NC State’s 2020 Tournament Chances

I thought about copying and pasting this article from last year and see if anyone would notice… it does seems to be a rite of spring for Kevin Keatts’ Wolfpack – the Bubble Watch. And this year is no different. The Wolfpack’s profile is quite different from last year, when they played a weak non-conference schedule and lacked marquee wins. This year, they beat Wisconsin and Duke at home and Virginia on the road, so they have enough good wins, but sweeps at the hands of Carolina and Georgia Tech, along with a loss at Boston College, have seemingly cancelled out those good wins. And so the Wolfpack find themselves right around the cut line. Again.

There are lots of ways to look at this, but the one I like is this one. There are 68 teams in the field. 12 teams have already punched their tickets:

  • Atlantic Sun: Liberty
  • Big South: Winthrop
  • Colonial Athletic: Hofstra
  • Horizon League: Northern Kentucky
  • Ivy League: Yale
  • Missouri Valley: Bradley
  • Mountain West: Utah State
  • Northeast: Robert Morris
  • Ohio Valley: Belmont
  • Southern: East Tennessee State
  • Summit League: North Dakota State
  • West Coast: Gonzaga

That leaves 56 bids. Of the 56, 12 more will come from the champions of one-bid leagues:

  • America East
  • Big Sky
  • Big West
  • Conference USA
  • MAAC
  • MAC
  • MEAC
  • Patriot
  • Southland
  • Southwestern Athletic
  • Sun Belt
  • WAC

So that leaves 44 bids, 36 at-large bids and 8 bids for the champions of the multi-bid leagues whose tournaments are not yet decided:

  • ACC
  • American Athletic
  • Atlantic 10
  • Big 10
  • Big 12
  • Big East
  • PAC 12
  • SEC

I am making the call that there are 36 locks for those 44 bids:

Arizona
Auburn
Baylor
Butler
BYU
Colorado
Creighton
Dayton
Duke
Florida
Florida State
Houston
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
LSU
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Penn State
Providence
Rutgers
St. Mary’s
San Diego State
Seton Hall
USC
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin

I feel a little bit nervous calling Rutgers and Oklahoma locks, but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

So we’re down to 8 bids left. And I would say that there are 11 teams in serious contention for those 8 bids:

Arizona State
Cincinnati
Indiana
NC State
Richmond
Stanford
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
Wichita State
Xavier

Now, always keep in mind the possibility of bid stealers. The way to think about bid stealers is this: if any team that is a) from one of the 8 multi-bid leagues above and b) NOT on the “Locks” list above wins a conference tournament – they grab one of the 8 up-for-grabs bids, leaving one less for everyone else.

If that doesn’t happen, then 8 of the 11 teams above will get in. There are still a couple of other teams that can’t be ruled out for an at-large if they make a deep run in the conference tourney – Mississippi State, possibly Purdue. But most likely, the 8 bids will come from those 11 teams.

Of those 11 teams, the conventional wisdom, which I agree with, is that 4 of the 11 – Arizona State, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Xavier will probably get in, barring an early conference tournament loss. Now I want to say that this is not a guarantee. None of the 11 teams I listed should be shocked to not hear their name called on Selection Sunday. That’s why I didn’t call them Locks. TCU was in a similar position last year, and they were left out. But I think that unless those teams get upset by a bad team in their tournaments, they will probably make it.

That leaves 4 bids to be split among Cincinnati, NC State, Richmond, Stanford, Texas, UCLA, and Wichita State.

Cincinnati and Wichita State would meet in the semifinals of the AAC Tournament on Saturday if both win on Friday. It’s tempting to call that an “elimination game”. I’m not certain of that, but I think Cincinnati especially would have a real uphill climb if they don’t win that game.

Richmond plays the winner of Davidson-LaSalle on Thursday, then probably Rhode Island in the semis if they win. I think if the Spiders can beat Rhode Island, they’ll probably make it. If not, they’re in trouble.

UCLA and Stanford may also be headed for an elimination game in the quarters of the Pac-12 tomorrow. Stanford first has to beat Cal tonight. UCLA has a very strange resume. They’re really low in the NET (#76) and they have some terrible losses – but they have 6 Quadrant 1 wins and, in my opinion, are in the field right now. I think there is a decent chance that both of these teams make it, but the loser of tomorrow’s game is going to be sweating.

Texas is also a weird team. They’re also low in the NET (#69), but for a different reason – they’ve been blown out a lot. They lost to West Virginia by 38, Providence by 22, Georgetown by 16, Iowa State by 29, and Oklahoma State by 22. BUT, they have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, 4 of which are on the road, and a home win against West Virginia. So good luck figuring them out. And, as luck would have it, they are matched up with… Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament. I’m loving these bubble team elimination games. I am saying that if Texas loses, they are out. Texas Tech I think could still have a chance with a loss.

So there you have it. If you’re a Wolfpack fan, you’re rooting for all of those other 10 teams to lose, and lose early. If they play each other, you’re rooting for the most vulnerable teams – probably Cincinnati and Texas – to lose.

And then of course you’re hoping for a win over Duke on Thursday, which would move the Wolfpack into Lock territory. If they don’t beat Duke, they are going to need a lot of help and a lot of luck, and I wouldn’t put their chances at more than 25%.

Bracketology 3/9

Through games of Sunday:

SeedTeam 1Team 2Team 3Team 4Team 5Team 6
1KansasBaylorGonzagaDayton
2VillanovaFlorida StateSan Diego St.Maryland
3CreightonKentuckyOregonDuke
4Seton HallMichigan St.AuburnLouisville
5West VirginiaButlerWisconsinOhio St.
6ColoradoBYUIowaVirginia
7Penn StateHoustonLSUIllinois
8MarquetteArizonaMichiganUSC
9OklahomaProvidenceFloridaRutgers
10Arizona St.St. Mary’sXavierWichita St.
11StanfordIndianaTexas TechUtah StateUCLARichmond
12North TexasE. Tenn. St.YaleVermont
13AkronBradleyStephen F. AustinHofstra
14BelmontNew Mexico St.LibertyE. Washington
15ColgateUC IrvineN. Dakota St.Little Rock
16Wright St.WinthropSienaSt. Francis (PA)Prairie View A&MNC Central

Checking In: Richmond

Dropping Out: Texas

Last 4 Byes: Xavier, Arizona State, Wichita St., Stanford

Last 4 In: UCLA, Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond

First 4 Out: Texas, NC State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State

Next 4 Out: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Memphis, Northern Iowa

Bracketology 3/7

Key games from yesterday:

  • Northern Iowa got blown out by Drake in the first round of the MVC Tournament. Can they get an at-large bid?
  • NC State beat Wake Forest, in a game that helped them… none.
  • Richmond won at Duquesne, a solid Quad 2 win.
  • Favorites who won included Winthrop, San Diego State, Yale, Belmont, and Utah State.

Here is the current bracket (automatic bids in bold):

SeedTeam 1Team 2Team 3Team 4Team 5Team 6
1KansasBaylorGonzagaSan Diego St.
2VillanovaFlorida StateDaytonMaryland
3CreightonSeton HallLouisvilleDuke
4OregonMichigan St.Ohio St.Kentucky
5AuburnButlerWisconsinBYU
6ColoradoPenn StateIowaWest Virginia
7MarquetteArizonaLSUMichigan
8IllinoisHoustonVirginiaProvidence
9XavierUSCSt. Mary’sRutgers
10Arizona St.FloridaOklahomaIndiana
11StanfordWichita St.Texas TechUtah StateUCLATexas
12North TexasE. Tenn. St.YaleVermont
13AkronBradleyStephen F. AustinHofstra
14BelmontNew Mexico St.LibertyE. Washington
15ColgateUC IrvineN. Dakota St.Little Rock
16Wright St.WinthropSienaSt. Francis (PA)Prairie View A&MNC Central

Checking In: Bradley

Dropping Out: Northern Iowa

Last 4 Byes: Oklahoma, Arizona State, Stanford, Wichita St.

Last 4 In: Texas Tech, Texas, UCLA, Utah State

First 4 Out: Purdue, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Richmond

Next 4 Out: NC State, Northern Iowa, Mississippi State, Tennessee

Bracketology 3/6

Last night’s roundup:

  • Ohio State beat Illinois – I moved the Buckeyes up one line
  • San Diego State beat Air Force
  • Michigan beat Nebraska
  • Houston lost at UConn – I moved them down one line
  • Wichita St. lost at Memphis, moving the Shockers down one line
  • Utah State beat New Mexico
  • Stanford lost at Oregon State, moving the Cardinal down to an 11
  • Arizona State had a pretty bad home loss to Washington, moving them down to a 10
  • Arizona held serve against Washington State at home
  • Oregon blew out Cal
SeedTeam 1Team 2Team 3Team 4Team 5Team 6
1KansasBaylorGonzagaSan Diego St.
2VillanovaFlorida StateDaytonMaryland
3CreightonSeton HallLouisvilleDuke
4OregonMichigan St.Ohio St.Kentucky
5AuburnButlerWisconsinWest Virginia
6ColoradoPenn StateArizonaBYU
7MarquetteIowaLSUMichigan
8IllinoisHoustonVirginiaSt. Mary’s
9XavierUSCProvidenceRutgers
10Arizona St.FloridaOklahomaWichita St.
11StanfordIndianaTexas TechUtah StateUCLATexas
12N. IowaE. Tenn. St.YaleVermont
13AkronNorth TexasStephen F. AustinHofstra
14BelmontNew Mexico St.LibertyE. Washington
15ColgateUC IrvineN. Dakota St.Little Rock
16Wright St.WinthropSienaSt. Francis (PA)Prairie View A&MNC Central

Checking In: NC Central

Dropping Out: NC A&T

Last 4 Byes: Wichita St., Florida, Stanford, Indiana

Last 4 In: Texas Tech, Texas, Utah State, UCLA

First 4 Out: Purdue, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Richmond

Next 4 Out: NC State, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Tennessee

Bracketology 3/5

Games of significance:

  • Xavier lost at Providence. Xavier is still in for now, but if they lose to Butler on Saturday, they should get a bit nervous.
  • Indiana beat Minnesota at home. Every little bit helps.
  • Butler blew out St. John’s at home.
  • Auburn was upset at home by Texas A&M. I still have them as a 5 seed.
  • Arkansas got a badly needed home win against LSU. I moved them into the First 4 Out and moved NC State down to Next 4 Out.
  • Florida won at Georgia, solidfying their position.
  • Kansas beat TCU. They’re still #1.
  • Creighton got back on track with a win over Georgetown.
  • Villanova won at Seton Hall. The Big East teams continue to beat up on each other. Nobody seems to want that #2 seed.
  • Virginia beat Miami 47-45. Seems like they’ve won about 27 games in a row by that score.
  • Florida State had a great comeback to win at Notre Dame.
  • Wisconsin beat Northwestern.
  • Dayton blew out Rhode Island. Rhode Island is done unless they win the A10 tourney.

The bracket:

SeedTeam 1Team 2Team 3Team 4Team 5Team 6
1KansasBaylorGonzagaSan Diego St.
2VillanovaFlorida StateDaytonMaryland
3CreightonSeton HallLouisvilleDuke
4OregonMichigan St.ButlerKentucky
5AuburnOhio St.WisconsinWest Virginia
6ColoradoPenn StateArizonaBYU
7MarquetteIowaHoustonMichigan
8IllinoisLSUVirginiaArizona St.
9Wichita St.St. Mary’sProvidenceRutgers
10USCFloridaStanfordXavier
11OklahomaIndianaTexas TechUtah StateUCLATexas
12N. IowaE. Tenn. St.YaleVermont
13AkronNorth TexasStephen F. AustinHofstra
14BelmontColgateLibertyE. Washington
15New Mexico St.UC IrvineN. Dakota St. Little Rock
16Wright St.WinthropSienaSt. Francis (PA)Prairie View A&MNC A&T

Checking In: No one

Dropping Out: No one

Last 4 Byes: Xavier, Florida, Oklahoma, Indiana

Last 4 In: Texas Tech, Texas, Utah State, UCLA

First 4 Out: Purdue, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Richmond

Next 4 Out: NC State, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Tennessee

Bracketology 3/4

First, a rundown of the games involving relevant teams from the past 2 days:

  • NC State lost at Duke on Monday, which doesn’t hurt the Wolfpack much, but they can’t afford to tread water at this point
  • Texas Tech lost in overtime at Baylor on Monday, in a game that likely would have moved them off the bubble
  • South Carolina beat Mississippi State. Neither team has much of a chance at this point
  • Michigan State won at Penn State. The Spartans are moving into 3-seed territory.
  • Rutgers got a huge win over Maryland which solidifies their position in the field and hurts Maryland’s chances for 2 seed.
  • Cincinnati beat South Florida at home, which doesn’t really help them at all.
  • Richmond beat Davidson at home, a decent Quadrant 2 win that helps them a little.
  • Marquette lost at Depaul. They’re still OK, but dropping into 8-seed territory.
  • Alabama lost to Vanderbilt at home, ending any hopes the Tide may have had for an at-large bid
  • Kentucky lost at home to Tennessee, hurting their chances for a 2 seed.
  • Purdue got a huge win they needed at Iowa. The big question is, can they get in at 2 games over .500?
  • Texas kept their hot streak going with a win at Oklahoma. The Longhorns are now more solidly in the field, while the Sooners are slipping towards the cut line.
  • West Virginia got a road win against Iowa State

Here’s the updated bracket (automatic bids in bold):

SeedTeam 1Team 2Team 3Team 4Team 5Team 6
1KansasBaylorGonzagaSan Diego St.
2Seton HallFlorida StateDaytonMaryland
3CreightonVillanovaLouisvilleDuke
4OregonMichigan St.ButlerKentucky
5AuburnOhio St.WisconsinWest Virginia
6ColoradoPenn StateIowaBYU
7MarquetteArizonaHoustonMichigan
8IllinoisLSUVirginiaXavier
9Arizona St.St. Mary’sProvidenceRutgers
10USCOklahomaStanfordWichita St.
11FloridaIndianaTexas TechUtah StateUCLATexas
12N. IowaE. Tenn. St.YaleVermont
13AkronNorth TexasStephen F. AustinBelmont
14HofstraColgateLibertyE. Washington
15New Mexico St.UC IrvineWright StateColgate
16N. Dakota St.WinthropSienaSt. Francis (PA)Prairie View A&MNC A&T

Checking In: UCLA

Dropping Out: Cincinnati

Last 4 Byes: Stanford, Wichita St., Florida, Indiana

Last 4 In: Texas Tech, Texas, Utah State, UCLA

First 4 Out: NC State, Cincinnati, Purdue, Richmond

Next 4 Out: Rhode Island, Arkansas, Mississippi State, South Carolina

Bubble Watch 3/4

——————– SAFELY IN FOR NOW ————————

1) Rutgers

The Scarlet Knights got a huge win on Tuesday against Maryland, solidifying their position. Their ratings are quite good, and they now have four really good wins at home against Seton Hall, Penn State, Wisconsin and Maryland. Should be enough to overcome their 1-10 record away from home. A win at Purdue would end all doubt, but I think they would probably be OK with a loss.

2) St. Mary’s

The Gaels have decent ratings in the 30s, played a decent non-conference schedule including neutral court wins over Wisconsin and Arizona State, and are 10-4 away from home. Their blemishes are only 3 Quadrant I wins and 3 sub-Quadrant I losses, but in this field, I think they’re in. Their regular season is over. Just don’t lose in the first round of the WCC Tourney, and they should be OK.

3) Providence

The Friars have a bit of an odd resume. They have a total of 7 Quadrant 1 wins, including road wins against Villanova, Butler, and Marquette, and home wins against Creighton and Seton Hall. They’ve basically beaten all the best teams in the Big East. What’s wrong, you ask? 4 Quadrant 3/4 losses, including a rare Quadrant 4 loss to Long Beach State, who is one of the worst teams in the country. But there are just too many good wins. They just have to score maybe one more win to make sure their record doesn’t get close to .500.

4) USC

The Trojans have a solid if unspectacular resume, with 4 Quadrant 1 wins and only 2 sub-Quadrant 1 losses. A loss to UCLA on Saturday would not be advisable.

5) Oklahoma

The Sooners didn’t need that loss to Texas. Their resume is quite similar to USC’s. If they avoid upsets (read: TCU on Saturday), I’ll think they’ll get in.

————————— LAST 4 BYES ——————————-

6) Stanford

The Cardinal added a jewel to what had been an unremarkable resume with their win over Colorado. They now have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, a 2-3 Quadrant 2 record, and one bad loss at Cal. They played a weak non-conference schedule overall, but did get a neutral court win against Oklahoma. Win at Oregon State on Thursday, and they should be safely in.

7) Wichita State

The Shockers got a solid road win at SMU on Sunday. Their best wins are at UConn and at Oklahoma State, which aren’t all that impressive. However, they will get credit for playing OSU, West Virginia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and VCU in non-conference, and winning 4 out of those 5 games. That, plus a lack of any truly objectionable losses, keeps them safely in the field. Winning one of their last 2 should be enough.

8) Florida

The Gators don’t have any great wins, but they do have 4 Quadrant I wins overall, and no really bad losses. Their ratings are generally strong. They’re in right now.

9) Indiana

The Hoosiers have played 15 Quadrant 1 games, winning 6, including 2 shiny wins against Michigan State and Florida State. 6-9 doesn’t sound that great, but when it comes to Quadrant 1 games, wins help more than losses hurt. They also don’t have any bad losses. They didn’t do themselves any favors with the loss to Illinois, but I think they’re OK for now. They need to beat Minnesota on Wednesday.

—————————– LAST 4 IN ———————————-

10) Texas Tech

Texas Tech is 20th in the NET, 21st in BPI, and 23rd on KenPom. It goes downhill from there… they do have a really good neutral court win over Louisville, and a home win over West Virginia. They also don’t have any really bad losses. Their last 2 games are against Baylor and Kansas; a win in either would make them a lock. If they lose them both, they’re at 18-13 going into the Big 12 Tournament and likely in need of wins.

11) Texas

Shaka Smart’s Longhorns are coming on strong, and their wins at Oklahoma and at Texas Tech vault them into the field. They have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, including a win at Purdue, and no Quadrant 3 losses. They have 4 Quadrant 2 losses, which is more than you would like. They’ve had too many non-competitive games – losing by 38 to West Virginia, 22 to Providence, 29 to Iowa State – and you wonder how much that will affect them. They need to hold serve against Oklahoma State this weekend.

12) Utah State

The Aggies have an odd resume with only 4 Quadrant 1/2 wins. You would think a team like that would have no chance to get an at-large bid, but they have one really good thing going for them. They scheduled LSU and Florida outside the league on neutral courts – and won both games. So they have a really good “made the most of their opportunities” argument. Their regular season is over. Given the weakness of the teams they’re competing with, I think they’re probably in, but a good showing in the Mountain West Tourney would help. No team with 4 Quadrant 1/2 wins can feel safe until they see their name in the bracket.

13) UCLA

As I keep looking at UCLA, I’ve decided to put them in the field. The Bruins are plagued with really low rankings – 75 in the NET and 94 (!) in the BPI. That in and of itself isn’t enough to keep them out. They have 6 Quadrant 1 wins, including a sweep of Arizona and a win at Colorado. But when they’ve lost, they’ve lost big, which probably contributes to those low rankings. They have too many bad losses – UNC, Washington State, and home losses to Hofstra and Cal State Fullerton. But somehow I think they sneak in. Big game at USC this weekend.

CUT LINE ————– (FIRST FOUR OUT) ————–CUT LINE

14) NC State

The Wolfpack have a blowout home win over Duke, and 3 other Quadrant 1 wins. Their win at UNCG just dropped to a Quadrant 2. They have enough good wins to get in, but the problem is, they have 7 Quadrant 2/3 losses, including sweeps by Georgia Tech and UNC, and a loss at Boston College.

Wolfpack fans can perhaps be encouraged that their resume is quite similar to 2019 St. John’s, which was a controversial at-large selection. They can get a lot of mileage out of that Duke win, but all those bad losses seem to have neutralized it. I just don’t know. I think they’re right on the edge.

15) Cincinnati

The more I look at the Bearcats resume, the less I like it. The good news is the Bearcats are 6-0 in Quadrant 2 games, which is good. The bad news is… well, most everything else. Their best wins are at home against Houston and at Wichita State. They have 4 Quadrant 3 losses, which is damaging. Their only decent non-conference win is at home against Tennessee. Their last regular season game isn’t going to help them, but will hurt them if they lose. Their best chance is to get a good win the AAC Tourney, but it’s possible they could sneak in by not screwing up while the teams around them do.

16) Purdue

The Boilers really helped themselves with a huge win at Iowa. They’ve played 11 games against the upper tier Quadrant 1 teams – and gone 2-9, the wins being a home blowout of Michigan State and the Iowa win. And all 9 of the losses were away from home. In the rest of their games, they’ve done quite well, notching 3 other Quadrant 1 wins. They are very high in the ratings. All they are lacking is wins. You get the feeling if they could have replaced a couple of those tough games with easy games and their record were 18-12 instead of 16-14, they’d be in. They need to beat Rutgers on Saturday, and then we’ll talk.

17) Richmond

The Spiders got a decent win over Davidson on Tuesday, their 5th Quadrant 1/2 win. They have a shot.

———————— NEXT FOUR OUT ——————————-

18) Rhode Island

Rhody had a really damaging home loss to St. Louis on Sunday. Their ratings are OK, but they have only 1 Quadrant 1 win, and that was at VCU. Quadrant 2/3/4 look fine, but overall, it isn’t enough.

19) Arkansas

Now we’re getting into the seriously flawed teams. The Razorbacks are sitting at 6-10 in the SEC. They did win at Indiana and at Georgia Tech outside the conference. But there is just not a lot to like here. They don’t have any sub-Quadrant 2 losses, so that helps. The Georgia Tech win could become a Quadrant 1 if the Jackets jump up a couple of spots in the NET. They really need to beat LSU on Wednesday; otherwise they’ll go into the SEC Tourney needing wins.

20) Mississippi State

The Bulldogs have a good win at Florida, but only 1 other Quadrant 1 win. They have 2 bad losses to Quadrant 3 teams. 2 Quadrant 1 wins and 2 Quadrant 3 losses doesn’t add up to a good enough resume. The loss to South Carolina pretty much cooked their goose.

21) South Carolina

Not gonna happen.

Bracketology 3/2

3/2 Bracket (automatic bids in bold):

SeedTeam 1Team 2Team 3Team 4Team 5Team 6
1KansasBaylorGonzagaSan Diego St.
2Seton HallMarylandDaytonCreighton
3Florida StateVillanovaAuburnOregon
4DukeMichigan St.LouisvilleKentucky
5ButlerOhio St.WisconsinPenn St.
6ColoradoWest VirginiaIowaBYU
7MarquetteArizonaLSUMichigan
8IllinoisArizona StateHoustonXavier
9VirginiaUSCWichita St.Oklahoma
10StanfordFloridaSt. Mary’sProvidence
11RutgersIndianaTexas TechUtah StateCincinnatiTexas
12N. IowaE. Tenn. St.YaleVermont
13AkronNorth TexasStephen F. AustinHofstra
14BelmontLittle RockUC IrvineE. Washington
15New Mexico St.LibertyN. Dakota St.Colgate
16Wright StateWinthropSienaSt. Francis (PA)Prairie View A&MNC A&T

Checking In: Texas

Dropping Out: Arkansas

Last 4 Byes: Providence, Florida, Rutgers, Indiana

Last 4 In: Texas Tech, Utah State, Cincinnati, Texas

First 4 Out: NC State, UCLA, Arkansas, Rhode Island

Next 4 Out: Purdue, Mississippi State, Richmond, Clemson

Bracketology 3/1

3/1 Bracket (automatic bids in bold):

SeedTeam 1Team 2Team 3Team 4Team 5Team 6
1KansasBaylor Gonzaga San Diego St.
2Seton HallFlorida St.DaytonCreighton
3MarylandVillanovaDukeOregon
4AuburnMichigan St.LouisvilleKentucky
5ButlerColoradoWisconsinPenn St.
6Ohio St.West VirginiaIowaBYU
7MarquetteArizonaIllinoisMichigan
8LSUVirginiaHoustonXavier
9ArizonaSt. Mary’sWichita St.Oklahoma
10IndianaFloridaTexas TechRutgers
11USCStanfordProvidenceArkansasCincinnatiUtah State
12N. IowaE. Tenn. St.North TexasYale
13AkronVermontStephen F. AustinBelmont
14Hofstra New Mexico St.UC IrvineE. Washington
15Wright St.LibertyLittle RockColgate
16N. Dakota St.WinthropSienaSt. Francis (PA)Prairie View A&MNC A&T

Checking In: North Dakota St., Winthrop

Dropping Out: South Dakota St., Radford

Last 4 Byes: Texas Tech, Rutgers, USC, Stanford

Last 4 In: Providence, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Utah St.

First 4 Out: NC State, Rhode Island, UCLA, Purdue

Next 4 Out: Texas, Richmond, Georgetown, Mississippi St.