Mudville Analytics

Home stretch here. Let’s look at where things stand. Automatic bids in bold.

1. Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2. Houston, UConn, Iowa State, Illinois
3. Michigan State, Purdue, Gonzaga, Nebraska
4. Virginia, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Alabama
5. Tennessee, St. John’s, Texas Tech, Arkansas
6. Wisconsin, Louisville, UNC, BYU
7. Miami FL, St. Mary’s, Clemson, Utah State
8. Kentucky, Georgia, UCLA, Ohio State
9. Villanova, St. Louis, Iowa, Texas A&M
10. TCU, Santa Clara, NC State, VCU
11. Missouri, Miami OH, UCF, SMU, Texas, South Florida
12. Akron, McNeese State, Yale, Northern Iowa
13. High Point, Utah Valley, Hofstra, UC Irvine
14. Sam Houston, North Dakota State, Wright State, Troy
15. Idaho, UMBC, Furman, Siena
16. Queens, Tennessee State, LIU, Howard, Southern, Lehigh

Last Four Byes: Santa Clara, NC State, VCU, Missouri

Last Four In (Dayton-bound): Miami OH, UCF, SMU, Texas

First Three Out: Oklahoma, New Mexico, San Diego State

Not Going to Make It As an At-Large: Everyone else. Sorry Auburn, Indiana, Cincinnati, Stanford, and Virginia Tech.

Bubble Picture

It finally happened. Miami Ohio’s luck ran out. I am inclined to agree with the experts that the committee will put them in the field – but it would not be the shock of my life if they don’t. My guess is they will put them in the First Four in Dayton – sort of an “OK, show us you deserve to be in” thing. That’s what I would do at least.

Here are the things to look for the rest of the weekend:

• Texas is probably cooked. New Mexico and San Diego State play each other tonight. The winner is going to bump Texas out of the field. The only way I see the Longhorns getting in is if VCU loses today and there are no other bids stolen, and even that would be far from a sure thing.
• SMU is hanging by a thread. If Oklahoma beats Arkansas tonight, the Sooners will replace the Mustangs in the field.
• VCU still has the opportunity for a bad loss that would put them in jeopardy. They play Duquesne tonight and then the winner of St. Joe’s-Davidson tomorrow. If they lose either of those, they could be in trouble.
• Other potential bid stealers: Nevada in the Mountain West, Ole Miss in the SEC, Seton Hall and Georgetown in the Big East, anybody other than St. Louis or VCU in the Atlantic 10.

The regular season is done and we can take stock of where things stand.

1. Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2. Houston, UConn, Illinois, Michigan State
3. Nebraska, Iowa State, Purdue, Gonzaga
4. Vanderbilt, Alabama, Virginia, Kansas
5. Texas Tech, St. John’s, Arkansas, Tennessee
6. Wisconsin, Louisville, UNC, St. Mary’s
7. BYU, Georgia, Miami FL, UCLA
8. Utah State, Kentucky, Villanova, Texas A&M
9. Iowa State, Clemson, St. Louis, Ohio State
10. TCU, NC State, Santa Clara, Texas
11. Missouri, UCF, VCU, Indiana, SMU, South Florida
12. Miami OH, McNeese State, Yale, Northern Iowa
13. High Point, Liberty, Utah Valley, Hofstra
14. UC Irvine, North Dakota State, Wright State, Troy
15. Northern Colorado, East Tennessee State, Merrimack, UMBC
16. Queens, Tennessee State, LIU, Howard, Bethune Cookman, Lehigh

Last Four Byes: NC State, Santa Clara, Texas, Missouri

Last Four In: UCF, VCU, Indiana, SMU

First Four Out: New Mexico, Stanford, Auburn, San Diego State

Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Boise State

Bubble Situation

I’m going to put the bubble teams into three groups. Group 1 are teams that are very likely to make it, I would assess their chances as > 90%, but not 100%. Group 2 are teams that are truly on the bubble, and I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Group 3 are teams that are definitely on the outside looking in right now, but could conceivably win their way in through conference tournaments.

Group 1: Very Likely In, But Not 100%

1. Ohio State
2. TCU
3. NC State
4. Santa Clara
5. Texas
6. Missouri
7. UCF

Ohio State is 26th in the predictive metrics. That will get them in despite their 3-10 Quad 1 record. TCU has 3 Quad 1-A wins and no major blemishes. NC State certainly has problems with the “eye test”, but their resume is too strong to leave out. Santa Clara could really use a win over St. Mary’s tonight, but I think they will make it even if they lose. Their metrics are good and the committee respects the West Coast Conference. Texas has 6 Quad 1 wins overall and is 37th in the predictive metrics. That will be enough. Missouri has a respectable 5-7 Quad 1 record and no Quad 3/4 losses. UCF is 5-6 against Quad 1, which is a lot better than the teams chasing them. Their 55 ranking in the predictive metrics is cause for concern, but I think they’ve done enough.

Group 2: Could Go Either Way

As of right now, there are 3 bids available for these teams.

1. VCU
2. Indiana
3. SMU
4. New Mexico
5. Stanford

VCU has two Quad 1 wins, decent for a mid-major, and no bad losses. Their name recognition as a program can’t hurt. But they sit at 49 in the predictive rankings which is not great. Their best win is against South Florida on a neutral court, which doesn’t sound that great, but they were very competitive in losses against Utah State on a neutral court and at NC State. They also dominated Virginia Tech on a neutral court. I think they’re the best of this lot. Two wins in the A10 should be enough to secure a bid.

What Indiana has to offer are wins over UCLA on the road, Wisconsin, and Purdue, and a 35 ranking in the predictive metrics. It’s not great, but in this group, it might be enough. They would do well to beat the Northwestern/Penn State winner on Wednesday, and if they really want to feel confident, go ahead and beat Purdue on Thursday.

SMU closed out the regular season with maybe their four worst games of the year and find themselves squarely on the bubble. Their metrics are OK. They have home wins over UNC and Louisville, a win at Wake Forest, and a neutral court win over Texas A&M. They lack bad losses. They desperately need to beat Syracuse on Tuesday and Louisville on Wednesday. If they don’t, it’s going to be a coin flip at best.

New Mexico’s resume is very similar to VCU’s, and what’s fascinating is that the Lobos beat the Rams on the road earlier in the season. You can bet there will be an outcry over that if VCU makes it and New Mexico doesn’t. But I think VCU’s resume is just a hair stronger overall. The Lobos have a couple of Quad 3 losses that they would like to have back. They have a chance to boost their resume with a quarterfinal win over Boise State on Thursday. If they lose that game, they’re probably done. If they beat Boise but lose to San Diego State, it will be really close.

Stanford has 5 Quad 1 wins, which is usually enough, but they are dragged down by their 64 ranking in the predictive metrics and three Quad 3 losses. A lot will come down to how much emphasis the committee puts on the metrics. Going off wins and losses alone, the Cardinal have a good case. If they can beat NC State again on Wednesday, it will be hard to keep them out.

Group 3: Out for Now, Could Win Their Way Into an At-Large Bid

1. Auburn
2. San Diego State
3. Cincinnati
4. Oklahoma
5. Virginia Tech

Auburn’s main problem is their overall 16-15 record. There has never been an at-large team that was one game over .500, and only one that was two games over .500. There has also never been an at-large team with 16 losses. So for the Tigers to get in, the committee will have to break some precedents. But that could happen, as most 16 loss teams don’t sit in the top 40 in the predictive metrics like the Tigers do. I would think they would at least have to beat Tennessee and Vanderbilt and reach the semis to have a shot.

San Diego State is extremely similar to New Mexico. Same conference, nearly identical record, similar metrics, split their regular season matchups. And if they both win on Thursday, they will face each other in the Mountain West semis on Friday. That could very well be a “win and you’re in, lose and you’re out” game.

Cincinnati’s metrics are good, and they have wins over BYU, Iowa State, and Kansas on the road. But they’ve lost an awful lot of games, including an inexplicable home loss to Eastern Michigan. At a minimum, they have to beat UCF on Wednesday, and my guess is they’ll need at least one more.

Oklahoma has been flying under the bubble radar a bit, but if they could make a mini-run in the SEC Tournament – beating Texas A&M and Arkansas to make the semis, let’s say – I think they could sneak in.

Virginia Tech is a real longshot at this point, but there are plenty of opportunities to bolster their resume in the ACC Tourney. If they beat Wake on Tuesday, Clemson on Wednesday, Carolina on Thursday, and Duke on Friday? Sure, that would probably be enough. Anything short of that, probably not. Beating Carolina on Thursday would at least make them interesting.

Potential Bid-Stealers

Miami OH. Will they make it as an at-large team if they don’t win the MAC Tournament? Their situation is unprecedented and the committee will have their work cut out for them. Their metrics are terrible and they didn’t beat anybody good, literally nobody. There is obviously a lot to be said for going undefeated, but I personally am not confident they will get in.

South Florida has a better resume than Miami in my opinion, but I think they are a little short right now, and unfortunately the American Tourney is not going to give them opportunities to bolster their resume short of winning it. If they lose in the final, it will be close but I think they will fall short.

We are in the home stretch. Most teams have one regular season game remaining followed by their conference tournaments. Time is growing short to impress the committee.

The Bubble Pecking Order

In for Now

1. Central Florida (at West Virginia)
2. Missouri (vs. Arkansas)
3. TCU (vs. Cincinnati)
4. Santa Clara (MWC Tourney)
5. SMU (at FSU)
6. Indiana (at Ohio State)
7. New Mexico (at Utah State)

Out for Now

1. Auburn (at Alabama)
2. Cincinnati (at TCU)
3. VCU (at Dayton)
4. San Diego State (vs. UNLV)
5. South Florida (at Memphis, vs. Charlotte)
6. Seton Hall (vs. St. John’s)
7. Virginia Tech (at Virginia)
8. Oklahoma (at Texas)

Central Florida, Missouri, and TCU are near locks. But a lot of the teams below them have Quad 1 games remaining, so in theory, quite a few teams could leapfrog them. It’s unlikely that enough teams will jump them that they won’t make it, but another win would end all doubt.

Santa Clara is likely headed for a MWC tournament semifinal showdown with St. Mary’s. A win in that game would punch the Broncos’ ticket. If they lose, it is going to depend on what happens with the teams behind them in the pecking order. My guess is that they squeak in.

SMU needs to beat Florida State on Saturday. If they do, they’re probably OK. If they don’t, it will depend on the teams behind them and bid-stealers.

The Indiana / New Mexico / Auburn / Cincinnati group is very close and hard to differentiate. Interestingly, each has a very difficult road game remaining. Auburn is perhaps the easiest to diagnose. If they win at Alabama, they’ll make the field. If they don’t, they’ll be 16-15 and I don’t see the committee putting them in without a deep SEC Tourney run. Indiana and New Mexico will probably be in if they win, and are not necessarily out if they lose. Cincinnati needs a win, and maybe more.

VCU has to beat Dayton to remain in the conversation. Their best chance is to be the last man standing after the teams in front of them lose.

San Diego State‘s game with UNLV won’t help them. Their only hope, really, is that all the teams above them have tough games. It’s entirely possible that the 5 or 6 teams in front of them all lose and they benefit from that. I’m not sure even that will be enough though. Maybe if they also beat New Mexico or Boise State in the MWC Tournament.

South Florida needs to win the American Tourney. I don’t see them making it as an at-large.

Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma are longshots, but they do have tough Quad 1 games left, and the teams in front of them could all lose. So if you squint, you can kind of see it. Most likely they have to win and get another similar quality win in their conference tourney to have a shot.

Other Teams

Cal, USC, Stanford, West Virginia, Tulsa… not going to happen.

Miami Ohio is an interesting case. Will they make it as an at-large if they don’t win the MAC Tournament? I don’t think anybody knows for sure. There is no precedent for an unbeaten team who hasn’t played anybody. It will be up to the committee to make a tough decision. The consensus seems to be that they will put the Red Hawks in. I wouldn’t bet on it.

Summarizing results and changes from Monday & Tuesday games:

• Duke beat NC State 93-64 and remained a 1 seed
• Arizona beat Iowa State 73-57 and remained a 1 seed
• Florida beat Mississippi State 108-74 and remained a 2 seed
• Illinois beat Oregon 80-54 and remained a 2 seed
• Iowa State lost to Arizona 73-57 and remained a 3 seed
• Nebraska lost to UCLA 72-52 and remained a 3 seed
• Virginia beat Wake Forest 75-70 and remained a 4 seed
• Kansas lost to Arizona State 70-60 and remained a 4 seed
• Texas Tech lost to TCU 73-65 and remained a 4 seed
• Alabama lost to Georgia 98-88 and remained a 4 seed
• Vanderbilt beat Ole Miss 89-86 and remained a 5 seed
• Tennessee beat South Carolina 78-59 and remained a 5 seed
• St. John’s beat Georgetown 72-69 and remained a 5 seed
• UNC beat Clemson 67-63 and remained a 5 seed
• Louisville beat Syracuse 77-62 and remained a 6 seed
• Utah State lost to UNLV 92-65 and dropped from a 6 seed to an 8 seed
• BYU lost to Cincinnati 90-68 and remained a 7 seed
• Kentucky lost to Texas A&M 96-85 and remained a 7 seed
• Clemson lost to UNC 67-63 and remained an 8 seed
• Georgia beat Alabama 98-88 and jumped from a 9 seed to a 7 seed
• NC State lost to Duke 93-64 and dropped from a 9 seed to a 10 seed
• Texas A&M beat Kentucky 96-85 and remained a 9 seed
• Central Florida lost to Oklahoma State 111-104 and remained a 10 seed
• Missouri lost to Oklahoma 80-64 and dropped to an 11 seed
• UCLA beat Nebraska 72-52 and jumped from a 10 seed to an 8 seed
• Auburn beat LSU 88-74 and remained an 11 seed
• TCU beat Texas Tech 73-65 and jumped from an 11 seed to a 10 seed
• San Diego State lost to Boise State 86-77 and dropped from the 2nd team out to the 4th team out
• VCU beat George Mason 70-65 and remains the 3rd team out
• Cincinnati beat BYU 90-68 and jumped from the 4th team out to the first team out
• West Virginia lost to Kansas State 65-63 and dropped from the 6th team out to the 13th team out
• Seton Hall beat Xavier 77-68 and jumped from the 7th team out to the 5th
• Oklahoma beat Missouri 80-64 and is now the 7th team out
• Boise State beat San Diego State 86-77 and is now the 8th team out

Full Bracket:

1. Duke, Arizona, Michigan, UConn
2. Florida, Houston, Michigan State, Illinois
3. Purdue, Iowa State, Gonzaga, Nebraska
4. Virginia, Kansas, Texas Tech, Alabama
5. Vanderbilt, Tennessee, St. John’s, UNC
6. Arkansas, Louisville, Wisconsin, St. Mary’s
7. St. Louis, BYU, Kentucky, Georgia
8. Clemson, Iowa, UCLA, Utah State
9. Miami FL, Villanova, Texas A&M, Texas
10. NC State, Central Florida, Missouri, TCU
11. SMU, Ohio State, Santa Clara, New Mexico, Auburn, South Florida
12. Belmont, Miami OH, McNeese State, High Point
13. Yale, Liberty, Utah Valley, UNCW
14. UC Irvine, St. Thomas, Navy, Troy
15. Wright State, Austin Peay, Northern Colorado, East Tennessee State
16. Merrimack, UMBC, LIU, Howard, Tennessee State, Bethune Cookman

Last Four Byes: Central Florida, Missouri, TCU, SMU

Last Four In: Ohio State, Santa Clara, New Mexico, Auburn

First Four Out: Cincinnati, Indiana, VCU, San Diego State

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Boise State

Time to dust off the bracketology spreadsheets. I took last year off but I am back and ready for another run. Let’s get right to it.

Through games of Sunday, March 1. Automatic bids in bold:

1. Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn
2. Florida, Houston, Illinois, Michigan State
3. Iowa State, Nebraska, Purdue, Gonzaga
4. Alabama, Virginia, Kansas, Texas Tech
5. Vanderbilt, Tennessee, St. John’s, UNC
6. Arkansas, Louisville, Wisconsin, Utah State
7. St. Mary’s, St. Louis, BYU, Kentucky
8. Clemson, Iowa, Miami FL, Villanova
9. Georgia, NC State, Texas, Texas A&M
10. Central Florida, Missouri, UCLA, SMU
11. Ohio State, Santa Clara, New Mexico, Auburn, TCU, South Florida
12. Belmont, Miami OH, McNeese State, High Point
13. Yale, Liberty, Utah Valley, UNCW
14. UC Irvine, St. Thomas, Navy, Troy
15. Wright State, Austin Peay, East Tennessee State, Montana State
16. Merrimack, UMBC, LIU, Howard, Tennessee State, Bethune Cookman

Last Four Byes: Missouri, UCLA, SMU, Ohio State

Last Four In: Santa Clara, New Mexico, Auburn, TCU

First Four Out: Indiana, San Diego State, VCU, Cincinnati

Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Tulsa

League By League

ACC

Locks (7): Duke, Virginia, UNC, Louisville, Clemson, Miami, NC State. I’m calling the Wolfpack a lock, but if they lose their last two games, things will get uncomfortable.

In for Now (1): SMU. The Mustangs need to win at least one of their two remaining games against Miami and FSU. Winning both would probably move them to a lock.

Work to Do (1): Virginia Tech. The Hokies need to beat Virginia in the last game of the season to give themselves a fighting chance at an at-large bid.

Big 10

Locks (7): Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa

In for Now (1): UCLA. I think the Bruins will get in if they beat either Nebraska or USC. If they lose both, they’re in trouble.

Work to Do (3): Ohio State, Indiana, USC. Ohio State and Indiana play each other in the last game of the season. That could be an elimination game. USC is definitely out right now. They have to win their last two games and probably make some noise in the Big 10 Tourney.

Big 12

Locks (6): Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU

In for Now (1): UCF. The Knights should be OK as long as they don’t lose on Tuesday to Oklahoma State.

Work to Do (4): TCU, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor. TCU is really close to the cut line right now. A win at Texas Tech would certainly do it; otherwise they probably have to beat Cincinnati in their last game. The Bearcats have BYU and TCU and probably need a sweep, although even a split would keep them interesting. West Virginia is on the outside looking in right now and must win their last two and make some noise in the Big 12 Tourney. As for Baylor – win at Houston on Wednesday and we’ll talk.

Big East

Locks (3): UConn, St. John’s, Villanova

Work to Do (1): Seton Hall. The Pirates have a tricky Quad 2 game at Xavier, then close with a home tilt against St. John’s. They need to win both.

SEC

Locks (7): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia

In for Now (2): Texas, Texas A&M. Each needs to win one of their last two to feel secure.

Work to Do (2): Missouri, Auburn. Missouri has two Quad 1 games left at Oklahoma and vs. Arkansas. Two wins and they’re in, one win and they’ll be sweating it, two losses and they’re in trouble. Auburn has been taking on serious water. The LSU game on Tuesday is a must win, and they’ll need more than that to feel secure on Selection Sunday.

West Coast

Locks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

Work to Do (1): Santa Clara. Herb Sendek’s crew has finished their regular season. They need to beat St. Mary’s in the WCC Tournament to feel secure; otherwise they’ll be sweating on Selection Sunday.

Mountain West

Locks (1): Utah State

Work to Do (2): New Mexico, San Diego State. Both of these teams are very close to the cut line. The Lobos have an opportunity to cement a birth with their finale at Utah State. The Aztecs need a win at Boise on Tuesday to have a chance.

Atlantic 10

Locks (1): St. Louis

Work to Do (1): VCU. If the Rams win their last two regular season games, they will be very close to the cut line. It might be enough.

All other leagues are one-bid leagues.