Mudville Analytics

Bracketology Update 3/11

Tickets Punched

Morehead State, Ohio Valley champions
Longwood, Big South champions
Drake, Missouri Valley champions
Stetson, Atlantic Sun champions

Top Seeds

Obviously you have Purdue, UConn, and Houston. For the fourth #1, I would rank them Tennessee, Arizona, North Carolina right now, but it’s very close. If one of those three teams wins its conference tournament and the other two do not, that team will get it. If Iowa State were to win the Big 12 tournament and none of the other three teams won their tournament, that would be an interesting decision.

Bubble Watch

I feel reasonably confident that the first three teams I have listed as “Last Four Byes” – Seton Hall, Colorado, Mississippi State – are going to get in.

I feel somewhat confident that the teams I have listed as “Next Four Out” – Ohio State, Memphis, Utah, and Iowa – are not going to get in.

That leaves nine teams – Texas A&M, my “Last Four In” and “First Four Out” – fighting for at most four spots, assuming no bid stealers.

I have Texas A&M at the top of that list due to their win quality. 11 wins against Quad 1 and 2 is just too much to leave out, considering the competition. But 2-4 against Quad 3 gives me pause.

I’m not sure that Indiana State is receiving serious consideration as an at-large candidate, and I understand why, but I think there is precedent for a team like them getting in, for example Drake 2021.

Villanova‘s record is 17-14. They must win a game in the Big East Tournament, or they have no shot. I don’t see the committee putting them in at 17-15.

ACC Watch

Virginia, Pitt, and Wake Forest are extremely close. In the NET, it goes Wake, Pitt, Virginia. In the results-based metrics, it goes Virginia, Pitt, Wake. In the predictive metrics, it goes Wake, Pitt, Virginia. Each team has 2 Quad 1 wins. Virginia’s Quad 2/3 record is similar to Pitt’s, perhaps a shade better, while Wake is only 6-6 against Quad 2.

Pitt and Wake are probably going to play each other in the ACC Tournament. It’s tempting to call that an elimination game, and it may well be. Virginia is probably going to play Clemson. That game could secure the Cavaliers’ spot in the field. If they lose… I don’t know. It will depend on what the other teams do.

Elevator Report

Team	Prior Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Baylor	2	3	L 78-68 at Texas Tech (NET 30, Quad 1-A)
Creighton	3	2	W 69-67 at Villanova (NET 33, Quad 1-A)
Duke	3	4	L 84-79 vs. North Carolina (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky	4	3	W 85-81 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Florida	5	7	L 79-78 at Vanderbilt (NET 203, Quad 3)
Wisconsin	5	6	L 78-70 at Purdue (NET 2, Quad 1-A)
Dayton	6	5	W 91-86 vs. VCU (NET 76, Quad 3)
San Diego State	6	7	L 79-77 vs. Boise State (NET 23, Quad 1-B)
Texas Tech	7	5	W 78-68 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Gonzaga	7	6	Idle
Washington State	7	8	Idle
St. Mary’s	7	8	Idle
Nebraska	8	7	W 85-70 at Michigan (NET 132, Quad 2)
Texas	8	7	W 94-80 vs. Oklahoma (NET 43, Quad 2)
Michigan State	8	9	L 65-64 at Indiana (NET 93, Quad 2)
TCU	9	10	L 79-77 vs UCF (NET 61, Quad 2)
Florida Atlantic	9	8	W 92-84 vs. Memphis (NET 69, Quad 2)
Mississippi State	9	11	L 93-89 vs. South Carolina (NET 49, Quad 2)
Northwestern	10	9	W 90-66 vs. Minnesota (NET 86, Quad 3)
Boise State	10	9	W 79-77 at San Diego State (NET 20, Quad 1-A)
Colorado	11	10	W 73-57 at Oregon State (NET 161, Quad 3)
Villanova	11	Out	L 69-67 vs. Creighton (NET 11, Quad 1-A)
New Mexico	11	Out	L 87-85 at Utah State (NET 32, Quad 1-A)
Texas A&M	Out	11	W 86-60 at Ole Miss (NET 90, Quad 2)
Pitt	Out	12	W 81-73 vs. NC State (NET 81, Quad 3)
High Point	14	Out	Lost in Big South tourney
Morehead State	15	14	Won OVC tourney
Eastern Washington	15	Out	Lost in Big Sky tourney
Quinnipiac	16	15	In MAAC tourney
Weber State	Out	15	In Big Sky tourney
Longwood	Out	16	Won Big South tourney

The Bracket (automatic bids in bold, tickets punched in CAPS)

Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Creighton
Marquette, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
Duke, Auburn, Illinois, Alabama
BYU, Texas Tech, Clemson, Dayton
Nevada, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
Texas, Florida, San Diego State, Nebraska
Utah State, Washington State, St. Mary’s, Florida Atlantic
Boise State, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Northwestern
Colorado State, TCU, Colorado, Seton Hall
Mississippi State, Texas A&M, St. John’s, Virginia, DRAKE, Princeton
Indiana State, Pitt, Grand Canyon, James Madison
McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
College of Charleston, Louisiana Tech, MOREHEAD STATE, Akron
Oakland, Colgate, Weber State, Quinnipiac
South Dakota St., LONGWOOD, STETSON, Norfolk State, Merrimack, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Last Four In: St. John’s, Virginia, Indiana State, Pitt

First Four Out: Wake Forest, New Mexico, Providence, Villanova

Next Four Out: Ohio State, Memphis, Utah, Iowa

Bracketology Update 3/8

Headlines

Nevada and Florida strengthen their positions with Quad 1-A wins
Colorado moves into the field with a Quad 1 win at Oregon
Wake Forest loses a game they couldn’t afford to lose

Top Seeds

Tennessee has it for now, but Arizona is close, and don’t count out North Carolina and even Iowa State. The conference tournaments will tell the tale.

Bubble Watch

Most of the teams listed as 9 or 10 seeds below are near-locks at this point. That includes Oklahoma, TCU, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Boise State, and Colorado State. I suppose if Colorado State lost to Air Force on Saturday and then lost in the first round of the conference tournament, they might be in trouble. So we will stick with the term “near-locks” to refer to this group. They are in unless something really comes apart in these last couple of games.

After that, we get into the real bubble teams. These are the teams that if the Selection Show were today, I would not be shocked if they did not get in. Here is how I currently rank them:

Seton Hall – huge win over Villanova. Their metrics are bad, but I think the win quality is too much to ignore.
Virginia – they helped themselves this week by not playing while others around them lost.
Colorado – their metrics are great, but the committee needed another Quad 1 win to justify putting them in. The Buffaloes delivered at Oregon. Careful with their last game at Oregon State who just beat Utah.
St. John’s – if they beat Georgetown on Saturday, they will have won their last five.
Villanova – monster game against Creighton tomorrow. A win would make them a lock. A loss will drop them to 17-14 overall. Another loss in the Big East tourney would be 15, and that may be just too many losses. Since 2016, only two teams with 15 losses have received at-large bids: Alabama 2018 and Florida 2019. Both of those teams were 19-15.
New Mexico – huge game at Utah State on Saturday. A chance to win their way in. A loss doesn’t mean they’re out, but the odds get longer.
Drake – on to the Missouri Valley tournament. If they meet Indiana State in the final, will the loser get in? That is the question. They may benefit from the teams above them losing (Villanova, New Mexico).
CUT LINE IS HERE
Providence – playing UConn at home tomorrow. In if they win, probably not if they lose.
Pitt – must win game vs. NC State. NC State at home isn’t that great of a win, but the thing is, Villanova, New Mexico, and Providence all have extremely difficult games. If those three lose and the Panthers win, does that move them into the field? I think maybe it will.
Texas A&M – they just won’t die. Six Quad 1 wins is a lot. Then again, four Quad 3 losses is a lot too. If they win at Ole Miss on Saturday, they have a shot.
Utah – withering like cut grass. Tomorrow night’s game at Oregon could be the final nail – or it could be their path to get back in the mix.
Wake Forest – the Georgia Tech loss just about finished them off.
Iowa – no chance to make it unless they beat Illinois on Sunday.

ACC Watch

Wake Forest is dead in my opinion unless they win the ACC Tournament. I don’t think beating Clemson will be enough. I guess a win over Clemson and then a win over Carolina or Duke in the tournament might do it.
Virginia I think is going to squeak in so long as they don’t stumble against Georgia Tech on Saturday. Lunardi has them as the last team in. I think they are a little better than that.
Pitt has a shot. At a minimum, they have to beat NC State on Saturday, and then reach the semis of the ACC Tournament. I’m not saying they’re in if they do that. Probably need to reach the finals of the tournament, and then you may as well just win the darn thing.

Elevator Report

Team	Prior Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Marquette	2	3	L 74-67 vs. UConn (NET 3, Quad 1-A)
Baylor	3	2	W 93-85 vs. Texas (NET 26, Quad 1-B)
BYU	4	5	L 68-63 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky	5	4	W 93-77 vs. Vanderbilt (NET 214, Quad 4)
San Diego State	5	6	L 62-58 at UNLV (NET 75, Quad 1-B)
Florida	6	5	W 105-87 vs. Alabama (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Washington State	6	7	L 74-68 vs. Washington (NET 66, Quad 2)
Texas	7	8	L 93-85 at Baylor (NET 13, Quad 1-A)
Boise State	8	10	L 76-66 vs. Nevada (NET 34, Quad 2)
Nevada	8	6	W 76-66 at Boise State (NET 28, Quad 1-A)
Northwestern	9	10	L 53-49 at Michigan State (NET 23, Quad 1-A)
Michigan State	9	8	W 53-49 vs. Northwestern (NET 52, Quad 2)
TCU	10	9	W 93-81 at West Virginia (NET 147, Quad 3)
FAU	10	9	W 80-76 at North Texas (NET 86, Quad 2)
Villanova	10	11	L 66-56 at Seton Hall (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Seton Hall	11	10	W 66-56 vs. Villanova (NET 31, Quad 2)
Utah	11	Out	L 92-85 at Oregon State (NET 159, Quad 3)
Colorado	Out	11	W 79-75 at Oregon (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Lipscomb	16	Out	Lost in Atlantic Sun tourney
Stetson	Out	16	Advanced to finals of Atlantic Sun tourney

Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
Arizona, Iowa State, North Carolina, Baylor
Kansas, Marquette, Creighton, Duke
Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky, Illinois
BYU, Clemson, Florida, Wisconsin
Dayton, Nevada, San Diego State, South Carolina
Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Washington State, St. Mary’s
Nebraska, Utah State, Michigan State, Texas
Oklahoma, TCU, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State
Northwestern, Boise State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
Virginia, Colorado, St. John’s, Villanova, New Mexico, Drake
Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
College of Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Akron, High Point
Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
Quinnipiac, South Dakota St., Stetson, Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado State, Seton Hall, Virginia, Colorado

Last Four In: St. John’s, Villanova, New Mexico, Drake

First Four Out: Providence, Pitt, Texas A&M, Utah

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Iowa, Richmond, Ohio State

ACC Standings Outlook 3/7

Had to make a couple of corrections in this version. This time I really do have the tiebreakers figured out. I think.

For the ACC Tournament, keep in mind that 10 seeds and below play on Tuesday; 5 seeds and below play on Wednesday; 1-4 seeds do not play until Thursday.

North Carolina

Current Record: 16-3
Remaining Games: at Duke
1 Seed (64% chance) With: A win OR (Pitt win AND Clemson loss)
2 Seed (36% chance) With: A loss AND EITHER Pitt loss OR Clemson win

Duke

Current Record: 15-4
Remaining Games: vs. UNC
1 Seed (36% chance) With: A win AND EITHER Pitt loss OR Clemson win
2 Seed (64% chance) With: 1) A loss OR 2) a Pitt win AND a Clemson loss

Virginia

Current Record: 12-7
Remaining Games: vs. Georgia Tech
3 Seed (85.5% chance) With: A win OR a Pitt loss.
4 Seed (14.5% chance) With: A loss AND a Pitt win

Clemson

Current Record: 11-8
Remaining Games: at Wake
3 Seed (5.5% chance) With: A win AND a Virginia loss AND a Pitt win
4 Seed (51.7% chance) With: 1) A win AND a Virginia win AND a Pitt win or 2) a Pitt loss
5 Seed (42.8% chance) With: A loss AND a Pitt win

Pitt

Current Record: 11-8
Remaining Games: vs. NC State
3 Seed (9% chance) With: A win AND a Virginia loss AND a Clemson loss
4 Seed (34% chance) With: A win AND a Virginia win AND a Clemson loss
5 Seed (26% chance) With: A win AND a Clemson win
6 Seed (12% chance) With: A loss AND a Clemson win
7 Seed (19% chance) With: A loss AND a Clemson loss

Syracuse

Current Record: 11-9
Remaining Games: none
5 Seed (12% chance) With: a Pitt loss AND a Clemson win.
6 Seed (45% chance) With: 1) a Pitt win AND a Clemson win OR 2) a Pitt loss AND a Clemson loss.
7 Seed (43% chance) With: a Pitt win AND a Clemson loss.

Wake Forest

Current Record: 10-9
Remaining Games: vs. Clemson
5 Seed (19% chance) With: A win AND a Pitt loss
6 Seed (43% chance) With: A win AND a Pitt win
7 Seed (2.7% chance) With: A loss AND a Virginia Tech loss AND a Florida State loss
8 Seed (15.6% chance) With: A loss AND a Virginia Tech loss OR a Florida State loss BUT NOT BOTH
9 Seed (19.8% chance) With: A loss AND a Virginia Tech win AND a Florida State win AND

Florida State

Current Record: 9-10
Remaining Games: vs. Miami
7 Seed (25% chance) With: A win AND a Wake loss
8 Seed (8% chance) With: A win AND a Wake win AND a Virginia Tech loss
9 Seed (56% chance) With: 1) A loss AND an NC State loss OR 2) a win AND a Wake win AND Virginia Tech win.
10 Seed (11% chance) With: A loss AND an NC State win.

NC State

Current Record: 9-10
Remaining Games: at Pitt
8 Seed (2% chance) With: A win AND a Virginia Tech loss AND a Florida State loss
9 Seed (13% chance) With: A win AND EITHER a Virginia Tech loss OR a Florida State loss BUT NOT BOTH
10 Seed (85% chance) With: 1) A loss OR 2) a Virginia Tech win AND a Florida State win

Virginia Tech

Current Record: 9-10
Remaining Games: vs. Notre Dame
7 Seed (10.6% chance) With: A win AND a Wake loss AND an FSU loss.
8 Seed (60.5% chance) With: 1) A win AND a Wake win OR 2) A win AND a Wake loss AND an FSU win AND NC State win OR 3) a loss AND an NC State loss AND an FSU loss.
9 Seed (24.8% chance) With: 1) A win AND a Wake loss AND an FSU win AND NC State loss OR 2) A loss AND EITHER an NC State loss OR an FSU loss BUT NOT BOTH
10 Seed (4% chance) With: A loss AND an NC State win AND an FSU win

Boston College

Current Record: 7-12
Remaining Games: at Louisville
Highest Possible Seed: 11
Lowest Possible Seed: 13
11 Seed (88% chance) With: 1) A win OR 2) a Notre Dame loss AND a Georgia Tech loss
12 Seed (10% chance) With: A loss AND a loss by either Notre Dame OR Georgia Tech BUT NOT BOTH
13 Seed (1% chance) With: A loss AND a Notre Dame win AND a Georgia Tech win

Notre Dame

Current Record: 7-12
Remaining Games: at Virginia Tech
Highest Possible Seed: 11
Lowest Possible Seed: 14
11 Seed (6% chance) With: A win AND a Boston College loss
12 Seed (55% chance) With: 1) A win AND a Boston College win OR 2) A loss AND a Georgia Tech loss AND a Miami loss
13 Seed (33% chance) With: A loss AND a loss by either Georgia Tech or Miami BUT NOT BOTH
14 Seed (6% chance) With: A loss AND a Georgia Tech win AND a Miami win

Georgia Tech

Current Record: 7-12
Remaining Games: at Virginia
Highest Possible Seed: 11
Lowest Possible Seed: 14
11 Seed (5% chance) With: A win AND a Boston College loss AND a Notre Dame loss
12 Seed (13% chance) With: 1) A win AND a loss by either Boston College or Notre Dame BUT NOT BOTH
13 Seed (60% chance) With: 1) A win AND a Notre Dame win AND a Boston College win OR 2) A loss AND EITHER a Notre Dame win OR a Miami loss
14 Seed (22% chance) With: A loss AND a Notre Dame loss AND a Miami win

Miami

Current Record: 6-13
Remaining Games: at FSU
Highest Possible Seed: 12
Lowest Possible Seed: 14
12 Seed (22% chance) With: A win AND a Notre Dame loss AND a Georgia Tech loss
13 Seed (6% chance) With: A win AND a Notre Dame loss AND a Georgia Tech win
14 Seed (72% chance) With: A loss OR a Notre Dame win

Louisville

Current Record: 3-16
Remaining Games: vs. BC
The Cardinals are locked into the 15 seed.

ACC Standings Outlook 3/5

North Carolina

Current Record: 15-3
Remaining Games: vs. Notre Dame, at Duke
Highest Possible ACC Tourney Seed: 1
Lowest Possible ACC Tourney Seed: 2
Bye chances: Clinched the double bye.

If the Tar Heels lose to Notre Dame, then the Duke-Carolina game decides the regular season title. If the Tar Heels beat Notre Dame and lose to Duke, that would create a tie. The tiebreaker would come down to walking down the standings and ultimately would depend on who finishes at the top of the Syracuse/Wake/Pitt/Clemson group.

Duke

Current Record: 15-4
Remaining Games: vs. UNC
Highest Possible Seed: 1
Lowest Possible Seed: 2
Bye chances: Clinched the double bye.

Virginia

Current Record: 12-7
Remaining Games: vs. Georgia Tech
Highest Possible Seed: 3
Lowest Possible Seed: 5
Bye chances: Have not clinched a double bye. If they finish in a 3-way tie with Syracuse and Pitt, the Cavaliers will be the 5 seed.

Syracuse

Current Record: 11-8
Remaining Games: at Clemson
Highest Possible Seed: 3. If Syracuse, Virginia, and Pitt all finish 12-8, the Orange get the 3 seed.
Lowest Possible Seed: 8 (I think – the tiebreakers are complicated)
Bye chances: The Orange have clinched a bye and have a shot at the double bye if they can beat Clemson.

Wake Forest

Current Record: 10-8
Remaining Games: vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Clemson
Highest Possible Seed: 3. I think Wake wins a 2-way tie with Virginia. There may be other tie scenarios where they finish third.
Lowest Possible Seed: 9
Bye chances: I believe Wake clinched a bye when NC State lost to Duke. Now the worst the Deacs could do is a 3-way tie for 8th place with NC State and Virginia Tech, and I think they would get the 9.

Clemson

Current Record: 10-8
Remaining Games: vs. Syracuse, at Wake
Highest Possible Seed: 3. Clemson gets the 3 seed if they, Virginia, and Pitt all finish 12-8.
Lowest Possible Seed: 9. A 2-way tie with Virginia Tech at 10-10. Possibly other tiebreaker scenarios.
Bye chances: I believe Clemson has clinched a bye. At least I am not able to find a tiebreaker scenario where they get the 10 seed.

Pitt

Current Record: 10-8
Remaining Games: vs. FSU, vs. NC State
Highest Possible Seed: 3. Pitt wins a 2-way tie with Virginia at 12-8.
Lowest Possible Seed: 10
Bye chances: I think they could still get the 10 and be playing on Tuesday. For example, if Pitt, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and NC State all finish tied for 7th at 10-10, then I think Pitt is at the bottom of that group on the tiebreakers.

Florida State

Current Record: 9-9
Remaining Games: at Pitt, vs. Miami
Highest Possible Seed: 5. It is possible for them to finish tied for 4th, but I don’t think they can win the tiebreaker. They could get the 5 in a 2-way tie with Clemson, or maybe a 2-way tie with Wake.
Lowest Possible Seed: 10
Bye chances: Cannot get a double bye if I am reading the tiebreakers correctly. And could be playing on Tuesday if they lose their last two games.

NC State

Current Record: 9-10
Remaining Games: at Pitt
Highest Possible Seed: 7. A two-way tie with Clemson at 10-10 is one way this can happen. There may be others.
Lowest Possible Seed: 11. Tiebreaker scenarios that involve Virginia Tech and Florida State generally turn out badly for the Wolfpack.
Bye chances: They need a) a win and a Virginia Tech loss or b) two VT losses to avoid playing on Tuesday.

Virginia Tech

Current Record: 8-10
Remaining Games: at Louisville, vs. Notre Dame
Highest Possible Seed: 7. They can finish tied for 6th but don’t have the tiebreakers.
Lowest Possible Seed: 12, I think. Tiebreakers are complicated.
Bye chances: If they win two, they have a good chance to escape playing on Tuesday. If they win one, they need a lot of help.

Notre Dame

Current Record: 7-11
Remaining Games: at UNC, at Virginia Tech
Highest Possible Seed: 9
Lowest Possible Seed: 14
Bye chances: To avoid playing on Tuesday, they need to win their last 2 games, they need Virginia Tech to beat Louisville, and they need FSU or NC State to finish 9-11. They need Virginia Tech in their tiebreaker because they swept the Hokies (or will have, in this scenario).

Boston College

Current Record: 6-12
Remaining Games: at Miami, at Louisville
Highest Possible Seed: 10. BC wins a 3-way tie at 8-12 with Notre Dame and Virginia Tech.
Lowest Possible Seed: 14
Bye chances: Playing on Tuesday.

Miami

Current Record: 6-12
Remaining Games: vs. BC, at FSU
Highest Possible Seed: 10. Miami wins a 3-way tie at 8-12 with Notre Dame and Virginia Tech.
Lowest Possible Seed: 14
Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Georgia Tech

Current Record: 6-12
Remaining Games: at Wake, at Virginia
Highest Possible Seed: 11. Tiebreakers are generally unfavorable for the Jackets.
Lowest Possible Seed: 14
Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Louisville

Current Record: 3-15
Remaining Games: vs. Virginia Tech, vs. BC
Highest Possible Seed: 15
Lowest Possible Seed: 15
Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Bracketology 3/4 Update

Headlines

Tennessee grabs a #1 seed with a win at Alabama
Gonzaga moves into lock status with a win at St. Mary’s
Providence drops out of the field after losing at home to Villanova
Drake moves into the field – for now

Top Seeds

Tennessee leapfrogs Arizona, for now, with their win at Alabama. The last #1 seed is still between Tennessee, Arizona, and North Carolina and will come down to the conference tournaments.

Bubble Watch

Let me start with this. Gonzaga is in. They are a lock and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

Colorado State is moving towards lock territory. I think they would get in even if they lose their last game – but I wouldn’t advise it.

After Colorado State, I rank them:

Villanova – big win at Providence
St. John’s – idle
Virginia – looked terrible against Duke, hanging by a thread
Utah – blowout win over Cal
New Mexico – lost at Boise, not a bad loss per se, but any loss at this point is damaging
Drake – good win vs. Bradley
Seton Hall – blown out at UConn
CUT LINE IS HERE
Providence – damaging home loss to Villanova
Colorado – beat Stanford, who isn’t any good
Wake Forest – yet another road loss at VT
Pitt – blowout road win over BC
Iowa – making a late push after a quality win at Northwestern

ACC Watch

Wake Forest is in big trouble. Their loss to Virginia Tech brings their record away from home to 3-11 on the season, and one of the three wins was against Towson. Beating Georgia Tech and Clemson is a must, and I’m not sure even that will be enough.
Virginia looked terrible, again, against Duke. I still think they will get in if they beat Georgia Tech in their last game, but a quality win in the tournament would help.
Pitt is alive, but I still think they need to win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
Nobody else has a shot.

Elevator Report

Team	Prior Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Arizona	1	2	W 103-83 vs. Oregon (NET 65, Quad 2)
Tennessee	2	1	W 81-74 at Alabama (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Kansas	2	3	L 82-74 at Baylor (NET 13, Quad 1-A)
Iowa St.	3	2	W 60-52 at UCF (NET 66, Quad 1-B)
Alabama	3	4	L 81-74 vs. Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Creighton	4	3	W 89-75 vs. Marquette (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky	4	5	W 111-102 vs. Arkansas (NET 120, Quad 3)
BYU	5	4	W 87-75 vs. TCU (NET 38, Quad 2)
St. Mary’s	6	7	L 70-57 vs. Gonzaga (NET 17, Quad 1-B)
South Carolina	7	6	W 82-76 vs. Florida (NET 33, Quad 2)
Northwestern	7	9	L 87-80 vs. Iowa (NET 57, Quad 2)
Nevada	7	8	W 74-66 vs. Fresno State (NET 213, Quad 4)
Nebraska	7	8	W 67-56 vs. Rutgers (NET 91, Quad 3)
Mississippi St.	8	9	L 78-63 at Auburn (NET 6, Quad 1-A)
Texas	8	7	W 81-65 vs. Oklahoma State (NET 115, Quad 3)
Texas Tech	8	7	W 81-70 at West Virginia (NET 144, Quad 3)
Boise State	9	8	W 89-79 vs. New Mexico (NET 28, Quad 1-B)
TCU	9	10	L 87-75 at BYU (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Gonzaga	10	7	W 70-57 at St. Mary’s (NET 16, Quad 1-A)
Virginia	10	11	L 73-48 at Duke (NET 9, Quad 1-A)
Villanova	11	10	W 71-60 at Providence (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Providence	11	Out	L 71-60 vs. Villanova (NET 26, Quad 1-B)
Drake	Out	11	W 74-66 vs. Bradley (NET 60, Quad 2)

Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette
Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke
Alabama, Illinois, Auburn, BYU
Kentucky, Clemson, San Diego State, Wisconsin
Dayton, South Carolina, Washington State, Florida
Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Texas, St. Mary’s
Nevada, Boise State, Nebraska, Utah State
Northwestern, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
TCU, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Villanova
St. John’s, Virginia, Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall
Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
Louisiana Tech, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
Lipscomb, Quinnipiac, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado State, Villanova, St. John’s, Virginia

Last Four In: Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall

First Four Out: Providence, Colorado, Wake Forest, Pitt

Next Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech

And Then The Next Four After That: Ohio State, Richmond, Ole Miss, Syracuse

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Kansas State, Oregon, Appalachian State

Bracketology 3/1 Update

Gainers

Baylor, Kentucky, BYU, Northwestern, Nevada, Texas, and St. John’s with Quad 1-A wins

Losers

Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Wake Forest with Quad 2 losses

Top Seeds

Purdue, UConn, and Houston are easy. The battle for the fourth #1 seed is between Arizona, Tennessee, and North Carolina, and it probably won’t be decided until the conference tournaments.

Bubble Watch

Here is how I see it right now. 12 teams competing for 9 bids. I would group them as follows:

90% Confident: Gonzaga, Virginia, Colorado State

I am 90+% confident these teams are in right now. They could still lose their way out, though. Gonzaga is probably going to get two more chances to play St. Mary’s. Winning either of those makes them a lock.

60% Confident: New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova

I have no idea how to order these five, but the main thing I want to say is, I think they are all ahead of the next group. If the tournament started today, I believe all five of these teams would be in. But it also wouldn’t be the shock of my life if one of them were left out in favor of someone from the next group. The teams in this group still have opportunities to either move up to lock status or to move down into the next group.

Problems: Utah, Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado

If there are no bid-stealers, there is room for one team from this group. Utah has some good wins, but they are 2-6 in their last eight games. Drake is, well, Drake. I don’t understand why Lunardi and others are not including them in the at-large conversation; they have three Quad 1 wins, including a good neutral court win against Nevada. But their overall schedule strength is weak and it’s hard to see them making it if they can’t win the MVC Tournament. Wake Forest and Colorado are similar, each has great metrics but only one Quad 1 win. Wake is 1-4 against Quad 1, 5-6 against Quad 2, and 3-10 away from home. That’s a tournament team? Colorado’s best win is… at Washington? Not good enough.

ACC Watch

Wake Forest is in trouble again with their loss to Notre Dame. They MUST win at least one of their remaining Quad 1 games at Virginia Tech and home against Clemson. They have been terrible away from home this year, so the VT game is really big for them.
Virginia has at BC, at Duke, and Georgia Tech at home. I think as long as they win two of those three, they will be OK.
Pitt has a faint pulse for an at-large bid. Maybe, just maybe, if they win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
Nobody else has a shot.

Elevator Report

Team	2/26 Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Auburn	3	4	L 92-84 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Baylor	4	3	W 62-54 at TCU (NET 38, Quad 1-A)
Wisconsin	4	5	L 74-70 at Indiana (NET 105, Quad 2)
Kentucky	5	4	W 91-89 at Mississippi State (NET 31, Quad 1-A)
Dayton	5	6	W 80-66 vs. Davidson (NET 106, Quad 3)
BYU	6	5	W 76-68 at Kansas (NET 17, Quad 1-A)
Texas Tech	6	8	L 81-69 vs. Texas (NET 34, Quad 2)
St. Mary’s	7	6	W 83-57 at Pepperdine (NET 244, Quad 4)
Mississippi State	7	8	L 91-89 vs. Kentucky (NET 19, Quad 1-A)
TCU	7	9	L 62-54 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Nebraska	8	7	L 78-69 at Ohio State (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Northwestern	8	7	W 68-61 at Maryland (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Oklahoma	8	9	L 58-45 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
Nevada	9	7	W 77-74 at Colorado State (NET 29, Quad 1-A)
Colorado State	9	10	L 77-74 vs. Nevada (NET 37, Quad 1-B)
Texas	10	8	W 81-69 at Texas Tech (NET 42, Quad 1-B)
Seton Hall	10	11	L 85-64 at Creighton (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Virginia	11	10	W 72-68 at Boston College (NET 92, Quad 2)
Wake Forest	11	Out	L 70-65 at Notre Dame (NET 135, Quad 2)
Drake	12	Out	W 107-105 at UIC (NET 179, Quad 3)
St. John’s	Out	11	W 82-59 at Butler (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Villanova	Out	11	W 75-47 vs. Georgetown (NET 207, Quad 4)
UC Irvine	13	14	W 89-64 at Cal State Northridge (NET 221, Quad 3)
Louisiana Tech	14	13	W 90-84 at Western Kentucky (NET 145, Quad 3)
UNC Wilmington	14	Out	L 69-58 vs. Hofstra (NET 110, Quad 3)
College of Charleston	Out	14	W 96-73 vs. Campbell (NET 291, Quad 4)
Quinnipiac	16	Out	L 88-78 at Rider (NET 242, Quad 4)
Fairfield	Out	16	W 88-64 vs. Siena (NET 353, Quad 4)

Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
Tennessee, North Carolina, Marquette, Kansas
Iowa State, Alabama, Duke, Baylor
Creighton, Auburn, Kentucky, Illinois
BYU, Clemson, Wisconsin, San Diego State
Dayton, Florida, St. Mary’s, Washington State
South Carolina, Northwestern, Nebraska, Nevada
Mississippi State, Texas, Utah State, Texas Tech
Michigan State, TCU, Oklahoma, Boise State
Gonzaga, Florida Atlantic, Virginia, Colorado State
New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah
Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Louisiana Tech
UC Irvine, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
Lipscomb, Fairfield, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Virginia, Colorado State, New Mexico, Seton Hall

Last Four In: Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah

First Four Out: Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado, Pitt

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Iowa, Cincinnati, Ohio State

And Then The Next Four After That: Richmond, Oregon, Syracuse, Kansas State

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Xavier

32. 1972 North Carolina

Record: 26-5, 9-3 (1st place)
ACC Tournament: Won
NCAA Tournament: Lost in national semifinal
Final AP Ranking: 2
All-ACC Players: Bob McAdoo (1st), Dennis Wuycik (1st), Bill Chamberlain (2nd), George Karl (2nd)
All-Americans: Bob McAdoo (1st)

Carolina had experienced a slight dip since their incredible three-year run from 1967 to 1969. The 1970 team, led by All-American Charlie Scott, ended up being somewhat disappointing. The 1971 team didn’t have any big stars, but Dean coached ’em up and they wound up having a much better season than expected, winning the regular season and the NIT championship – back when that meant something.

Despite the loss of South Carolina, the league on balance was getting stronger at this time. Maryland was on the rise under Lefty Driesell, Virginia had their best teams ever behind standout Barry Parkhill, NC State was starting to put together that mid-1970s juggernaut, Duke was hanging onto a little bit of post-Vic Bubas strength, and Tates Locke had something going at Clemson.

North Carolina had to replace two key players from the previous year, and the only impact player coming up from the freshman team was Bobby Jones. They needed another piece, and that piece was Bob McAdoo. The Greensboro native had played two years at Vincennes Junior College in Indiana. He was famously the only junior college player Dean Smith ever signed. He fit in perfectly, giving the Tar Heels the interior scoring and rebounding presence they needed.

But it wasn’t all McAdoo. Dennis Wuycik was a tremendous player who earned first team All-ACC honors. Bill Chamberlain and George Karl made it onto the second team. Steve Previs was a pass-first point guard who made things go, and Jones provided great defense, rebounding, and 67% shooting.

After an early season loss at Princeton, they turned it on. There were but three more regular season losses, all on the road, by a total of five points. The Tar Heels faced second seed Maryland in the ACC Tournament final. The Terps were a program on the rise, led by sophomore big men Tom McMillen and Len Elmore. But the Tar Heels’ balance was too much.

As luck would have it, Carolina’s first NCAA Tournament game would be in the round of 16 against… South Carolina. These two teams had gone toe-to-toe the previous two seasons in the ACC, and the Tar Heels still had a bitter taste in their mouths about the Gamecocks’ 52-51 ACC Tournament title win the previous season. South Carolina was still formidable, but with John Roche and Tom Owens gone, they were no match for the Tar Heels.

Next up was the Chuck Daly-coached and third-ranked Penn Quakers. With McAdoo, Wuycik, and Karl leading the way, Carolina pulled away in the second half for a 73-59 victory.

The end came in the Final Four against Florida State. It was the Seminoles’ first and still only appearance in the Final Four. McAdoo was terrific, but the rest of the group was a little off, and FSU held on for a 79-75 win. (Fun fact: Florida State was coached by Hugh Durham. Durham made the Final Four one other time in his career with the 1983 Georgia Bulldogs, who defeated the Tar Heels in the regional final before losing to NC State in the Final Four. So both of Durham’s Final Four teams upset a Dean Smith-coached Carolina team, then lost the next game.)

This was a great offensive team. They are one of only 14 teams in ACC history to average 89+ points per game. They set the ACC record for FG% in a season at 52.8% (later broken by 1975 Maryland). And they are one of only two teams since 1970 (1990 Duke is the other) to average more than 30 free throw attempts per game.

At this point in Dean Smith’s career, he had been to four NCAA Tournaments. In each of those tournaments, the Tar Heels as ACC champions received a bye into the round of 16, which meant they had to win two games to win the region and advance to the Final Four. In those first four tournaments, they won all eight of those games and made the Final Four all four times. In the process, here are the teams they beat:

1967: #5 Princeton and #9 Boston College
1968: #3 St. Bonaventure and #8 Davidson
1969: #9 Duquesne and #5 Davidson
1972: #6 South Carolina and #3 Penn

That’s pretty good, huh? Eight NCAA regional games against Top 10 opponents, 8-0 record, four Final Fours?

ACC Tournament Outlook

North Carolina

Current Record: 14-3
Remaining Games: vs. NC State, vs. Notre Dame, at Duke
Highest Possible Finish: 1
Lowest Possible Finish: It is possible for the Tar Heels to finish in a 3-way tie for first with Duke and Virginia, or a two-way tie for second with Virginia. It appears to me that UNC has the tiebreakers, so I don’t think they can be seeded lower than #2.
Bye chances: Clinched the double bye.

Finish Probabilities:

1 (alone) – 59%
1 (tie) – 35%
2 (alone) – 6%
2 (tie) – < 1%

Duke

Current Record: 12-4
Remaining Games: vs. Louisville, vs. Virginia, at NC State, vs. UNC
Highest Possible Finish: 1
Lowest Possible Finish: 4 (tie)
Bye chances: Need one more win to clinch the double bye.

Finish Probabilities:

1 (alone) – 6%
1 (tie) – 35%
2 (alone) – 54%
2 (tie) – 4%
3 (alone) – < 1%
3 (tie) – < 1%
4 (alone) – < 1%
4 (tie) – < 1%

Virginia

Current Record: 11-6
Remaining Games: at BC, at Duke, vs. Georgia Tech
Highest Possible Finish: 1 (tie)
Lowest Possible Finish: 7 (tie)
Bye chances: Clinched a single bye. Work to do to secure a double bye.

Finish Probabilities:

1 (tie) – < 1%
2 (alone) – 1%
2 (tie) – 3%
3 (alone) – < 20%
3 (tie) – < 42%
4 (alone) – < 6%
4 (tie) – < 21%
5 (alone) – <1%
5 (tie) – 5%
6 (alone) – < 1%
6 (tie) – 2%
7 (alone) – < 1%
7 (tie) – < 1%

Wake Forest

Current Record: 10-7
Remaining Games: at Virginia Tech, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Clemson
Highest Possible Finish: 2 (tie)
Lowest Possible Finish: 9 (tie)
Bye chances: I’m not 100% sure, but I think Wake has clinched a single bye. While they can finish tied for 9th, I think they have the tiebreakers. Lots of work to do to secure a double bye.

Finish Probabilities:

2 (tie) – < 1%
3 (alone) – 17%
3 (tie) – 32%
4 (alone) – 5%
4 (tie) – 21%
5 (alone) – 3%
5 (tie) – 12%
6 (alone) – 1%
6 (tie) – 6%
7 (alone or tie) – 1%
8 (alone or tie) – < 1%
9 (alone or tie) – < 1%

Clemson

Current Record: 10-7
Remaining Games: at Notre Dame, vs. Syracuse, at Wake
Highest Possible Finish: 2 (tie)
Lowest Possible Finish: 9 (tie)
Bye chances: Need a win or Virginia Tech loss to clinch single bye. Lots of work to do to secure the double bye.

Finish Probabilities:

2 (tie) – < 1%
3 (alone) – 13%
3 (tie) – 26%
4 (alone) – 4%
4 (tie) – 22%
5 (alone) – 5%
5 (tie) – 14%
6 (alone) – 1%
6 (tie) – 9%
7 (alone or tie) – 4%
8 (alone or tie) – 1%
9 (alone or tie) – < 1%

Syracuse

Current Record: 10-8
Remaining Games: at Louisville, at Clemson
Highest Possible Finish: 3
Lowest Possible Finish: 9 (tie)
Bye chances: I’m not 100% sure, but I think the Orange has clinched a single bye. It appears to me that they have the tiebreakers over the teams they could finish tied for 9th with.

Finish Probabilities:

3 (alone) – < 1%
3 (tie) – 6%
4 (alone) – < 1%
4 (tie) – 8%
5 (alone) – 1%
5 (tie) – 19%
6 (alone) – 3%
6 (tie) – 29%
7 (alone) – 8%
7 (tie) – 17%
8 (alone) – 3%
8 (tie) – 5%
9 (alone or tie) – < 1%

Pitt

Current Record: 9-8
Remaining Games: at BC, vs. FSU, vs. NC State
Highest Possible Finish: 3
Lowest Possible Finish: 11
Bye chances: Anything is possible. Double bye, single bye, no bye at all.

Finish Probabilities:

3 (alone or tie) – 7%
4 (alone or tie) – 14%
5 (alone or tie) – 22%
6 (alone or tie) – 26%
7 (alone or tie) – 12%
8 (alone or tie) – 13%
9 (alone or tie) – 5%
10 (alone or tie) – 2%
11 (alone or tie) – < 1%

NC State

Current Record: 9-8
Remaining Games: at UNC, vs. Duke, at Pitt
Highest Possible Finish: 3
Lowest Possible Finish: 11
Bye chances: Anything is possible. Three wins gives them a slim chance for a double bye; zero wins and they could very well be playing on Tuesday. One win and a Virginia Tech loss should be enough to avoid Tuesday.

Finish Probabilities:

3 (alone or tie) – < 1%
4 (alone or tie) – 1%
5 (alone or tie) – 4%
6 (alone or tie) – 8%
7 (alone or tie) – 13%
8 (alone or tie) – 25%
9 (alone or tie) – 35%
10 (alone or tie) – 12%
11 (alone or tie) – 1%

Florida State

Current Record: 9-8
Remaining Games: at GT, at Pitt, vs. Miami
Highest Possible Finish: 3
Lowest Possible Finish: 11
Bye chances: Anything is possible. Double bye, single bye, no bye at all.

Finish Probabilities:

3 (alone or tie) – 3%
4 (alone or tie) – 7%
5 (alone or tie) – 15%
6 (alone or tie) – 22%
7 (alone or tie) – 18%
8 (alone or tie) – 25%
9 (alone or tie) – 7%
10 (alone or tie) – 2%
11 (alone or tie) – < 1%

Virginia Tech

Current Record: 7-10
Remaining Games: vs. Wake Forest, at Louisville, vs. Notre Dame
Highest Possible Finish: 5 (tie)
Lowest Possible Finish: 13
Bye chances: Double bye is out of reach. Work to do to secure single bye.

Finish Probabilities:

5 (tie) – < 1%
6 (tie) – 1%
7 (alone or tie) – 6%
8 (alone or tie) – 16%
9 (alone or tie) – 30%
10 (alone or tie) – 37%
11 (alone or tie) – 10%
12 (alone or tie) – 1%
13 (alone or tie) – < 1%

Boston College

Current Record: 6-10
Remaining Games: vs. Virginia, vs. Pitt, at Miami, at Louisville
Highest Possible Finish: 5 (tie)
Lowest Possible Finish: 15
Bye chances: Double bye is out of reach. Work to do to secure single bye.

Finish Probabilities:

5 (tie) – < 1%
6 (tie) – < 1%
7 (tie) – 2%
8 (alone or tie) – 5%
9 (alone or tie) – 12%
10 (alone or tie) – 22%
11 (alone or tie) – 46%
12 (alone or tie) – 9%
13 (alone or tie) – 2%
14 (alone or tie) – < 1%
15 (alone) – < 1%

Notre Dame

Current Record: 6-11
Remaining Games: vs. Clemson, at UNC, at Virginia Tech
Highest Possible Finish: 8 (tie)
Lowest Possible Finish: 15
Bye chances: Clinging to a slim chance to get a single bye.

Finish Probabilities:

8 (tie) – < 1%
9 (tie) – < 1%
10 (alone or tie) – 3%
11 (alone or tie) – 11%
12 (alone or tie) – 40%
13 (alone or tie) – 40%
14 (alone or tie) – < 5%
15 (alone) – < 1%

Miami

Current Record: 6-12
Remaining Games: vs. BC, at FSU
Highest Possible Finish: 10
Lowest Possible Finish: 15
Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Finish Probabilities:

10 (alone or tie) – 4%
11 (alone or tie) – 29%
12 (alone or tie) – 50%
13 (alone or tie) – 14%
14 (alone or tie) – 2%
15 (alone) – < 1%

Georgia Tech

Current Record: 5-12
Remaining Games: vs. FSU, at Wake, at Virginia
Highest Possible Finish: 10
Lowest Possible Finish: 15
Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Finish Probabilities:

10 (alone or tie) – < 1%
11 (alone or tie) – 3%
12 (alone or tie) – 16%
13 (alone or tie) – 26%
14 (alone or tie) – 55%
15 (alone) – 1%

Louisville

Current Record: 3-13
Remaining Games: at Duke, vs. Syracuse, vs. Virginia Tech, vs. BC
Highest Possible Finish: 10 (tie)
Lowest Possible Finish: 15
Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Finish Probabilities:

10 (tie) – < 1%
11 (tie) – < 1%
12 (alone or tie) – 1%
13 (alone or tie) – 1%
14 (alone or tie) – 8%
15 (alone) – 90%

33. 1969 North Carolina

Record: 27-5, 12-2 (1st place)
ACC Tournament: Won
NCAA Tournament: Lost in national semifinal
Final AP Ranking: 4
All-ACC Players: Charlie Scott (1st), Bill Bunting (1st), Dick Grubar (2nd)
All-Americans: Charlie Scott (2nd)

This was the third of three straight ACC Championship and Final Four teams at North Carolina. Larry Miller was gone, but the Tar Heels still had Charlie Scott, and they had three outstanding seniors in Rusty Clark, Dick Grubar, and Bill Bunting.

This trio isn’t as well known as they ought to be. They never lost an ACC Tournament game; they won the ACC regular season three times; at no time was any of their teams ranked outside the Top 10; and they reached the Final Four three times. Each of the three made All-ACC once. They were overshadowed to some degree by two all-time greats in Miller and Scott, but they were special players in their own right.

This team rolled along like a machine. They started the year ranked second in the polls and never dropped below fourth. A narrow loss to St. John’s at Madison Square Garden, a two-point game against South Carolina, and a loss to Duke in Vic Bubas’ last home game at Cameron were the only blemishes on a 22-3 regular season.

The ACC Tournament is remembered for Charlie Scott‘s 40-point game in the final against Duke. It was right up there with Randolph Childress 1995 as one of the all-time great performances in a tournament final. The other significant event in the tournament was an injury to Grubar that would keep him out of the NCAA Tournament. This meant more time for Eddie Fogler, Jim Delany (the same Jim Delany who was later commissioner of the Big Ten), and Gerald Tuttle.

On to the East Region in the NCAA Tournament. UNC as the ACC champion received a bye into the regional semifinals and a matchup with #9 Duquesne, where the Tar Heels survived a second-half Dukes comeback to eke out a one-point win. Next up was fifth-ranked Davidson in a rematch of the regional final from the prior year, won narrowly by the Tar Heels. This year’s Wildcats had beaten four ACC teams during the regular season in what turned out to be Lefty Driesell’s last season before taking the Maryland job. It was a thrilling, high scoring, back-and-forth game. In the end, there was a little too much Charlie Scott. The New York junior scored a game-high 32 and sank the decisive jumper with two seconds left. It was an especially bitter pill for Driesell, who had recruited Scott hard and was thought to have the inside track before a late push by Dean Smith convinced Scott to come to Chapel Hill.

In the Final Four, Carolina faced sixth-ranked Purdue, led by first team All-American Rick Mount. This is where Grubar’s absence finally caught up with the Tar Heels. Purdue’s backcourt of Mount and Bill Keller dominated Fogler and Tuttle, outscoring them 56-6 and forcing them into 12 turnovers. The Boilermakers pulled away in the second half to a 92-65 victory.

This team played fast. Their average of 89 points per game still ranks in the top 20 all-time in the ACC. They set league records for total field goals made (later broken by 1973 UNC) and field goals per game (later broken by 1973 NC State).

With Grubar injured, there was a built-in excuse to fail to make it to another Final Four. But they found a way, capping off an unmatched three-year run. No other ACC program has ever had a three-year stretch of winning the regular season, winning the tournament, and making the Final Four.

Bracketology: 2/26 Update & Weekend Roundup

Big Winners

Kentucky blowing out Alabama
South Carolina getting a much-needed win at Ole Miss
Wake Forest finally getting that Quad 1 win they needed over Duke

Big Losers

Michigan State losing at home to Ohio State
New Mexico with a terrible home loss to Air Force, putting them back on the bubble
Virginia, Texas A&M, Texas, and Utah with non-competitive losses to Quad 1-A teams
Grand Canyon losing at home to Abilene Christian and saying goodbye to any hope they had of getting an at-large bid

Top Seeds

Purdue, UConn, and Houston are easy. The battle for the fourth #1 seed continues and Arizona‘s loss to Washington State brings Carolina back into the mix. I am staying with the Wildcats for now, but it’s very close. And don’t count Kansas out.

Bubble Watch

The way I see it, there is a pretty big drop off after the Seton Hall/Gonzaga/Wake Forest/Providence/New Mexico/Virginia group. I feel strongly that all those teams are in right now. After that? Pick two from Utah, Drake, Texas A&M, Villanova, St. John’s, Cincinnati, Colorado, and Ole Miss. I went with Utah and Drake, but I would find it hard to argue with any of those teams.

The Missouri Valley situation is interesting. Is it a two-bid league with Indiana State and Drake? Most of the experts don’t think so. I put Drake in as my last at-large team, not really because I like their chances, but everyone else in that group above is so flawed. Villanova, Texas A&M, and Cincinnati got blown out over the weekend. St. John’s has but two Quad 1 wins (same as Drake) in 11 tries. Colorado has but one. Ole Miss has lost five of six. Does anybody want this last spot?

ACC Watch

Wake Forest got themselves in for now. They have two Quad 1 games left at Virginia Tech and home against Clemson. One of those should be enough to seal it.
Virginia hasn’t scored 50 points in any of its last three games. They are still in primarily because of the ineptitude of the teams below them, but they had better beat Boston College on Wednesday.
Pitt beat Virginia Tech to keep themselves relevant. At Clemson tomorrow night is a must win for them to have a shot at an at-large bid.
Virginia Tech and Syracuse are probably toast for at-large bids. Even if they win out, I don’t think it will be enough.
NC State still has a “mathematical possibility” if they win out, simply because of the strength of their remaining schedule. Of course, the probability of them winning out is somewhere around 0.5%. They actually have a better chance to win the tournament.

Team	2/23 Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Iowa State	2	3	W 71-64 vs. West Virginia (NET 148, Quad 3)
Marquette	3	2	W 88-64 vs. Xavier (NET 64, Quad 2)
Creighton	3	4	L 80-66 at St. John’s (NET 44, Quad 1-B)
Auburn	4	3	W 97-76 at Georgia (NET 97, Quad 2)
BYU	5	6	L 84-74 at Kansas State (NET 73, Quad 1-B)
Kentucky	6	5	W 117-95 vs. Alabama (NET 6, Quad 1-A)
Utah State	7	8	Idle
Michigan State	7	9	L 60-57 vs. Ohio State (NET 66, Quad 2)
TCU	8	7	W 75-57 vs. Cincinnati (NET 45, Quad 2)
South Carolina	8	7	W 72-59 at Ole Miss (NET 75, Quad 1-B)
New Mexico	9	11	L 78-77 vs. Air Force (NET 265, Quad 4)
Florida Atlantic	9	10	L 78-74 at Memphis (NET 79, Quad 2)
Texas	9	10	L 86-67 at Kansas (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Northwestern	9	8	W 76-62 vs. Michigan (NET 120, Quad 3)
Colorado State	10	9	L 66-60 at UNLV (NET 81, Quad 2)
Nevada	10	9	W 84-63 at San Jose State (NET 250, Quad 4)
Virginia	10	11	L 54-44 vs. North Carolina (NET 9, Quad 1-A)
Boise State	10	9	W 92-72 at Wyoming (NET 169, Quad 3)
Texas A&M	11	Out	L 86-51 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Grand Canyon	11	12	L 79-73 at Abilene Christian (NET 254, Quad 4)
Utah	11	12	L 89-65 at Colorado (NET 34, Quad 1-A)
Drake	11	12	L 91-77 at Northern Iowa (NET 119, Quad 2)
Providence	12	11	Idle
Ole Miss	12	Out	L 72-59 vs. South Carolina (NET 48, Quad 2)
Wake Forest	Out	11	W 83-79 vs. Duke (NET 10, Quad 1-A)
Indiana State	Out	12	W 88-73 vs. UIC (NET 179, Quad 4)
UC Irvine	13	14	L 92-88 at UC San Diego (NET 110, Quad 2)
Akron	14	13	W 83-70 vs. Kent State (NET 171, Quad 4)
Quinnipiac	16	Out	L 85-81 vs. Fairfield (NET 158, Quad 3)
Fairfield	Out	16	W 85-81 at Quinnipiac (NET 171, Quad 3)

Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
North Carolina, Kansas, Tennessee, Marquette
Iowa State, Duke, Alabama, Auburn
Creighton, Baylor, Wisconsin, Illinois
San Diego State, Kentucky, Dayton, Clemson
Florida, Texas Tech, BYU, Washington State
St. Mary’s, South Carolina, Mississippi State, TCU
Nebraska, Utah State, Oklahoma, Northwestern
Michigan State, Nevada, Colorado State, Boise State
Florida Atlantic, Texas, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
Wake Forest, Providence, New Mexico, Virginia, Indiana State, Princeton
Utah, Drake, James Madison, Grand Canyon
McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont
UNC Wilmington, Akron, Louisiana Tech, High Point
Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, Southern, Merrimack, South Dakota St., Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Wake Forest, Providence

Last Four In: New Mexico, Virginia, Utah, Drake

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Villanova, St. John’s, Cincinnati

Next Four Out: Colorado, Ole Miss, Pitt, Virginia Tech

And Then The Next Four After That: Iowa, Oregon, Richmond, Kansas State

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Butler, Memphis, Ohio State, Syracuse