March 2023 – Mudville Analytics

Final Bracket

I’m posting this bracket while the AAC and Big 10 Championship games are still in progress. I wish they would move those earlier in the day. It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Purdue. If Purdue loses, I would move Texas to the top line and drop Purdue to a 2. However, because of the timing of the game, the committee may have to make a final decision before the end of the game. This also impacts Penn State; if they beat Purdue, they deserve to move up to a 9. But again, the committee may not be able to consider that because of timing.

I think Houston is a #1 regardless of the outcome of the AAC game, but if Memphis wins, I would move them up a line and move Miami down.

I’ve spent a lot of time looking at the last few teams and trying to make sense of how the committee might view them. And my final answer is to go with Arizona State as my last team in, for one reason: they have five Quad 1 wins, and not one of them was at home. Their resume has a lot of weaknesses; 5-5 against Quad 2 and a Quad 4 loss is not good, and the computers don’t particularly like them. But when push comes to shove, win quality is more important than any other single factor for the committee, and the Sun Devils have it. I think that will make the difference.

Of course I’m always interested in NC State. Their situation seems to have deteriorated in the past couple of days, probably as the bracketologists reflect on their three losses to Clemson and, consciously or unconsciously, are bothered by the Wolfpack being ahead of the Tigers in the pecking order.

But I still think they’re going to make it. Their 7-4 Quad 2 record is very good, and they have no bad losses. Their wins over Duke, Dayton, Vanderbilt, and Furman have aged well as those teams played well down the stretch.

If you’re watching the Selection Show and you want to know when the moment of truth has arrived, here’s what you do. Get a piece of paper and write down these teams: Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Nevada, Clemson, Pitt. Every time one of them is announced – pay special attention to the 10 and 11 seeds – cross it off. When you’ve crossed off six teams, that’s it. The other three are not going to make it.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue
Texas, UCLA, Arizona, Gonzaga
Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Xavier
Tennessee, Kansas State, Duke, San Diego State
Texas A&M, Virginia, Indiana, St. Mary’s
Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Memphis
Miami, Florida Atlantic, Creighton, West Virginia
Arkansas, Utah State, Michigan State, Missouri
Northwestern, Boise State, Auburn, Maryland
Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, USC
Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State
College of Charleston, VCU, Drake, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, Furman
Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont, Grand Canyon
Colgate, Princeton, Montana State, UNC Asheville
Northern Kentucky, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Howard, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern

Last Four Byes: Iowa, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State

First Four Out: Nevada, Clemson, Pitt, Vanderbilt

Bracket Update 3/11

With one day left until Selection Sunday, most teams’ fate is sealed. I now have 40 locks, five teams that are Probably In, and five teams in competition for the last spot in the field.

I have to admit a couple of mea culpas. One is, I have “de-locked” Providence, which should never happen. Once a team is a lock, they should stay a lock. But Providence has really fallen apart down the stretch and I now think it’s possible, though unlikely, that they could miss the field.

The other is, I’ve added Vanderbilt to the list of bubble teams. When I looked at it last week, I thought they were too far out to possibly get an at-large bid. With their win over Kentucky, that now seems possible.

On to the lists.

Locks (40):

Big 10 (8) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (4) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (3) – San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

Probably In (5):

90% Chance: Rutgers

80% Chance: Mississippi State, NC State

75% Chance: Providence

70% Chance: Oklahoma State

Last Bid:

At this point, there are five teams who could conceivably hear their names called for the last bid: Nevada, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Arizona State, and Pitt. Of the five, only Vanderbilt is still playing. If they win two more games, they are the SEC champions and there is no more debate. Even if they win today against Texas A&M but lose in the final, I think they will get the bid. But let’s assume Vandy loses today. Then I’m going with Clemson, with Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, and Pitt following in that order.

This is a bit of a gut feel pick. My model says that Nevada has the best resume. But they finished the season really poorly and I think the committee will deduct something for that. I also think there has been a groundswell of support for Clemson from various sources in the media, although maybe that’s just my ACC bias, and that may have an impact on the committee. There may also be an element of unconscious sympathy towards the ACC, especially if they are going to leave Pitt out, as I think they will.

Keep in mind that bid stealing is still possible. Vanderbilt could win the SEC tournament, Ohio State is alive in the Big 10 Tournament, and a couple of teams are still alive in the AAC Tournament who could grab that last bid. If there are multiple bid thefts, I think Oklahoma State is the most likely of the Probables to be left out.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold, tickets punched underlined):

Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
UCLA, Texas, Gonzaga, Arizona
Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Tennessee
Xavier, Kansas State, San Diego State, Virginia
Indiana, St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, Duke
Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Miami
Michigan State, Creighton, Northwestern, Florida Atlantic
Arkansas, West Virginia, Memphis, Boise State
Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Auburn
Illinois, Iowa, Penn State, USC
Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson
College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Iona, Yale, Furman
Louisiana, Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont
Colgate, UNC Asheville, Southern Utah, Montana State
Northern Kentucky, Grambling, Norfolk State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson

Last Four Byes: Penn State, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson

First Four Out: Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, Pitt

Bubble Watch 3/9

Moving off the bubble list yesterday was NC State, who moved to a Lock with their win over Virginia Tech. Although ironically, NC State beat the Hokies so badly that they knocked them out of the top 75 in the NET – which means the Wolfpack’s win in Blacksburg is no longer a Quad 1. But it doesn’t matter. They’re in.

Bubble Team Ranking:

In 6 – Utah State

In 5 – Oklahoma State

In 4 – Nevada

In 3 – Penn State

In 2 – Mississippi State

In 1 – Pitt

Out 1 – Rutgers

Out 2 – Arizona State

Out 3 – North Carolina

Out 4 – Wisconsin

Out 5 – Oregon

Out 6 – Michigan

Out 7 – Clemson

Commentary on today’s games:

Utah State – next game today vs. New Mexico (NET 50)

With a win – this is an interesting one, because right now New Mexico is 50 in the NET, which is the cutoff for a Quad 1 win on a neutral court. But beating them may knock them down in the NET, making it a Quad 2. The vagaries of the NET. I’m not quite ready to call the Aggies a Lock with a win here, but they’re headed in that direction.
With a loss – by the same logic, if New Mexico wins, they probably will move up in the NET and this becomes a Quad 1 loss for Utah State. I think they still have a chance and it will depend on what the other teams do.

Oklahoma State – next game today vs. Texas (NET 9)

With a win – OSU becomes a lock.
With a loss – OSU finishes their regular season at 18-15. Losing to Texas on a neutral court doesn’t really hurt you, but the Cowboys are on thin ice as it is. They will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Nevada – next game today vs. San Jose State (NET 96)

With a win – this is a Quad 2, just barely. It helps marginally, I guess, but it’s really more about avoiding the loss.
With a loss – Nevada is in trouble if they lose this game. They too will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Penn State – next game today vs. Illinois (NET 33)

With a win – this is a solid Quad 1 opponent. I can’t say it makes them a Lock, but they would go to the head of the bubble pack, and the other teams would have to do some extraordinary things to keep the Nittany Lions out.
With a loss – a Quad 1 loss doesn’t really hurt their resume, but they’re on thin ice as it is. Probably no better than 50-50 they get in if they lose today.

Mississippi State – next game today vs. Florida (NET 59)

With a win – Quad 2 opponent. Every little bit helps, but certainly doesn’t make them a Lock.
With a loss – I don’t like their chances. It would depend on what other teams do.

Pitt – next game today vs. Duke (NET 25)

With a win – I’m not sure my model would agree, but my gut says Pitt is a Lock if they win. Duke is really playing well right now. A neutral court win over the Blue Devils is the final validation Pitt needs.
With a loss – I really don’t know. I don’t think they’ll make it, but other Bracketologists have them higher for whatever reason. They certainly look like a tournament team with the “eye test”, but I’m not sure the committee cares.

Rutgers – next game today vs. Michigan (NET 54)

With a win – it’s a Quad 2, but because Michigan is a fellow bubble team, this win has a little more cachet than, say, Nevada beating San Jose State. But it certainly doesn’t make Rutgers a lock.
With a loss – I don’t think they’re going to make it. I can’t rule it out until I see what everyone else does.

Arizona State – next game today vs. USC (NET 48)

With a win – it’s a Quad 1 win for now, but similar to the Utah State comment, the act of beating USC may knock them down enough in the NET so that it’s not a Quad 1 anymore. Beat them, but don’t beat them badly, I guess. Regardless, it’s a really good win and would move Arizona State toward the head of this pack of teams right around the cut line.
With a loss – similar to Rutgers, I don’t think they’ll make it, but with their four Quad 1 wins, it can’t be ruled out.

North Carolina – next game today vs. Virginia (NET 30)

With a win – the Tar Heels move to a 60% chance to make it with a win today.
With a loss – they’re done.

Wisconsin (regular season over)

The Badgers have no games left to improve their standing. Could they possibly make it? I can’t completely remove a team with six Quad 1 wins. But I would rate their chances at 10% or less.

Oregon – next game today vs. Washington State (NET 69)

With a win – a win doesn’t mean much. Oregon has to do a lot more than beat Washington State if they’re going to make it.
With a loss – they’re done.

Michigan – next game today vs. Rutgers (NET 43)

With a win – it’s a solid Quad 1 win and will move the Wolverines up considerably in the pecking order, but their situation would still be precarious.
With a loss – they’re done.

Clemson – next game today vs. NC State (NET 37)

With a win – would be a solid Quad 1 for the Tigers, their third win over NC State, and would help cancel out the Tigers’ bad losses. But it seems unlikely that this win alone will be enough to get the Tigers in.
With a loss – they’re done.

Bubble Action 3/8

Quick update on the six bubble teams in action today.

NC State can move to a Lock on my board with a win over Virginia Tech.

North Carolina and Arizona State are fighting to stay alive. The Tar Heels are definitely done if they lose to BC. Arizona State might still have a faint pulse with a loss to Oregon State, but they would be a long shot.

Oklahoma State and Wisconsin are both in similar positions. They are both around the cut line. You can’t rule them out if they lose today, but you can’t say they’re in if they win either. A loss probably hurts more than a win helps. Both are playing conference rivals who are better than their record would indicate.

Then there’s Pitt. The Panthers play Georgia Tech this afternoon. I say they are out if they lose, but there is a lot of disagreement about Pitt among Bracketologists, and not everyone would agree. But it does seem that the community is coming around a bit to my point of view. Only 73 of the 89 brackets on bracketmatrix.com have them in. Jerry Palm of cbssports.com still has them as a 9 seed, which is a fantasy.

Bubble Update 3/5

It has been a busy weekend in bubble land.

West Virginia, Auburn, and USC moved up to Locks with their wins over Kansas State, Tennessee, and Arizona State respectively
Penn State and Oklahoma State got huge wins to move them up in the bubble pecking order
Nevada had a damaging home loss to UNLV which makes their position precarious
Mississippi State, Arizona State, North Carolina, and Pitt failed to get the wins they needed to solidify their positions
Utah State got their first Quad 1 win against Boise State

As I write this, Wisconsin and Rutgers haven’t played yet. Wisconsin’s game against Minnesota won’t help them if they win, but it will hurt them if they lose. If Rutgers can beat Northwestern, I think it will move them to a Lock.

I need to correct and clarify a couple of things from Friday’s post. One, I was unclear about the status of Florida Atlantic. I do consider them a lock. If someone else wins the Conference USA Tournament, the Owls will get in and that will be a bid steal.

Also, I neglected to include Utah State in my list of bubble teams. I’m not sure how that happened, but in any case, they are definitely in that group. In fact, with their win over Boise State, I think they would be in if the tournament started today.

With that, let’s run through the updated lists.

Locks (39):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

In for Now (2):

With their losses yesterday, I am moving Nevada and Mississippi State down into the bubble group. I am no longer convinced that they would be in if the tournament started today. The only two teams I am certain would be in today are:

Rutgers – I’m moving them to a lock if they can beat Northwestern today.

NC State – they probably benefited from not playing yesterday while a number of bubble teams around them lost. If they beat Virginia Tech on Wednesday, I’ll move them to a Lock.

Bubble Teams (5 bids available, 12 teams):

At this moment, my five bids would go to Nevada, Utah State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Penn State. Or maybe Wisconsin. With their loss to Oklahoma State yesterday, Texas Tech is off the list. Teams are listed in rank order.

Nevada – killer home loss to UNLV. They cannot afford to lose in the quarters of the Mountain West Tournament. Depending on what else happens, they may need to get to the Mountain West final.

Utah State – yes, they only have one Quad 1 win, but there is precedent for that. 8-1 against Quad 2 is outstanding. They are number 21 in the NET. No team ranked in the top 25 in the NET has ever been left out. They’re probably headed for a MWC Tournament semifinal rubber match with Boise State. A win there should clinch it for Utah State.

Mississippi State – they are hanging by a thread. Unless they make a run in the SEC Tournament, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Oklahoma State – with their win over Texas Tech, I have them in right now, but it’s precarious. They need to beat Oklahoma on Wednesday, and then they’ll get a chance to end all doubt with a quarterfinal against Texas. If they don’t win that, they’ll be sweating it out.

Penn State – the Lions got their second straight big win on Sunday over Maryland. That puts them on the right side of the cut line, but their position is anything but safe. They need to win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament, at a minimum.

Wisconsin – if they can avoid a bad loss against Minnesota today, their 6 Quad 1 wins will be hard to keep out. Their NET is 78, which would be the lowest to ever get an at-large bid.

Pitt – is it possible that the ACC could get only four teams in? Yup. I don’t see why Lunardi and Jerry Palm have Pitt in. What about their resume is better than, say, Wisconsin or Arizona State? Maybe they know something I don’t about the committee, but looking strictly at their resume, it’s not good enough. I say they have to beat Duke on Thursday or they’re not getting in.

North Carolina – they have to beat Boston College and Virginia to get to the semis of the ACC Tournament. Otherwise they are not getting in. Even that would not be a guarantee; it might take a run to the finals.

Michigan – Jerry Palm has them in right now. I don’t see it. Beat Indiana today, and now we’re talking. My guess is, that won’t be quite enough. They’ll need to get to the semis of the Big 10 Tournament.

Arizona State – they needed to beat USC and they didn’t. They’ll probably play Oregon in the Pac-12 quarters. Consider that an elimination game. My guess is that the winner will need to beat UCLA in the semis to get in.

Oregon – just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final.

Clemson – they need to pull for NC State to win on Wednesday, because beating Virginia Tech doesn’t do them any good. They have to beat the Wolfpack or they have no shot. To have a realistic shot, they have to make the ACC Tournament final.

Bubble Watch 3/3

As we head into the final weekend of the regular season, it’s time to survey the bubble. Who’s in, who’s out, and who has work to do.

I think the most compelling story is how the committee will handle the ACC. Will the ACC be graded on the curve, or will they be treated like the seventh-best conference in the country, which they are, according to the NET? Pitt, North Carolina, Clemson, and arguably NC State are bubble teams. And if you’re looking at blind resumes without regard to the conference or the name on the front of the jersey, which is what the committee claims to do, I would say that only NC State is in, and that not by much. Pitt and UNC are right around the cut line, and Clemson is out. But many of the Bracketology talking heads have NC State and Pitt comfortably in, and Clemson knocking at the door. It seems they are anticipating that the committee will be influenced by the brand and the historical reputation of the ACC. We’re getting into the realm of psychology, which is dangerous, but the committee are human, and you know that conversation will happen. “Are we really going to leave out a team that went 14-6 in the ACC?” It’s a test to see how committed they are to their principles.

Now to the detail. Let’s remind ourselves of how this works. There are 68 teams in the tournament. 23 of those bids will come from the tournament champions of one-bid leagues. That leaves 45 bids, 9 automatic bids and 36 at-large bids, for teams from the nine multi-bid leagues: the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, SEC, American, Mountain West, and West Coast. I’m going to focus on those 45 spots. I will put them into three categories: Locks, In for Now, and Bubble Teams. Locks means just that – they are going to make the tournament no matter what happens the rest of the way. In for Now are teams that would make the tournament if selections were being made today but are not totally secure due to the possibilities of bad losses, bid stealers, and idiosyncratic decisions by the committee. Bubble Teams are close to the cut line and have a non-trivial chance to earn an at-large bid. Keep in mind that the number of Bubble Teams who actually receive bids depends on the number of bid stealers. As a reminder, a bid steal happens when a team from one of the nine multi-bid leagues above who would not otherwise have made it as an at-large wins the conference tournament. This means that a spot must be made for them, and the result is that the last at-large team in the field gets bumped out. Any team not listed has no chance to earn an at-large bid in my estimation.

Locks (35):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (6) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State

SEC (6) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (2) – UCLA, Arizona

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Probably the most controversial team here as a Lock is Memphis. They have only two Quad 1 wins. However, their 8-3 Quad 2 record is very good. Since 2016, only two teams with 8+ Quad 2 wins have been left out of the field: Nevada 2017, who had zero Quad 1 wins, and Butler 2019, who had one. Their last regular season game is against Houston, so it won’t hurt them much even if they lose. I guess if they got blown out by Houston and lost to, say, SMU in the quarterfinals of the AAC tourney, they would be nervous. But they would still make it, I think.

In for Now (7):

West Virginia – West Virginia is a tournament team. I am tempted to make them a Lock. They have five Quad 1 wins. Since 2016, there have been 10 teams with 5+ Quad 1 wins who got left out of the field. All but one of them had 5+ losses to Quads 2/3/4. WVU has one. None of them was ranked higher than 38 in the RPI/NET. WVU is 24. The only reason I don’t have them as a lock is their overall record. They could finish 17-15, considering their last game is against Kansas State with the Big 12 tourney to follow. Since 2016, only one team that was two games over .500 has made it as an at-large (Maryland 2021). I think the Mountaineers would be the second, but I can’t be sure. The committee seems to have a line they don’t like to cross.

Auburn – I think the Tigers will get in, but there is precedent for a team like them getting left out. NC State 2019 was pretty similar – not many Quad 1 wins but good Quad 2 record, not many bad losses, solid NET. NC State that year was punished for playing a weak non-conference schedule, and Auburn doesn’t have that problem. Their last regular season game is at home against Tennessee. That would be an opportunity for them to eliminate all doubt. They will probably play Mississippi State, Arkansas, or Florida in the SEC Tourney. If they lose to Tennessee and then lose that game, they’ll be sweating it. One more win should do it.

USC – They would definitely get in if the tournament started today, but they can’t afford a slip-up. Texas A&M last year had a very similar resume, and they got left out. They play Arizona State at home on Saturday, and then they’ll play somebody like Washington State or Utah in the quarters of the Pac-12 Tournament. Win both of those games, and they’re a lock. Lose one, they’ll probably make it but it will be tight. Lose both and they’re probably sunk.

Nevada – They have four Quad 1 wins and a NET of 32. Nobody has ever been left out with that profile. The only reason I don’t call them a lock is, they still have the opportunity for a couple of bad losses. UNLV at home to close the regular season, then maybe San Jose State in the quarters of the Mountain West tournament. Lose both of those games and they’re in trouble.

Mississippi State – the Bulldogs have four Quad 1 wins, two of which are outstanding – at Arkansas and on a neutral court against Marquette. That win quality is probably enough to get them in, but they are only 3-2 against Quad 2, so overall they have a 7-9 record against Quads 1&2. They have a couple of toss-up type games coming up: at Vanderbilt to close the regular season, and then someone from the middle of the SEC pack in the first round of the SEC tournament. I think if they win one of those games, they’ll be OK.

Rutgers – Rutgers has been alternating bad losses (vs. Nebraska, at Minnesota) with good wins (at Wisconsin, at Penn State) lately. Life in the Big 10. They have five Quad 1 wins and a solid NET of 38, which certainly sounds like a tournament team. Their Achilles’ heel is four Quad 3 losses. It’s an unusual resume. It’s hard to find a good comp for them from the past. Their remaining schedule is similar to Mississippi State: they have a couple of toss-up games coming up, at home against Northwestern and then the first round of the Big 10 Tournament against somebody like Michigan or Michigan State. But I think their position is a bit more precarious than Mississippi State. They really need to win one of those games, and both to be completely safe.

NC State – The Wolfpack seem to be safely in according to most of the Bracketology talking heads, but I’m not sure why. They have only two Quad 1 wins. That is the ONLY thing separating their resume from North Carolina’s. If the Tar Heels beat Duke on Saturday, then they are dead even. Anyway, back to NC State. Their first round ACC Tournament game will be against Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, or Syracuse. They need to win it. If they do, I think they’re OK. Getting to the semifinals would make them totally safe.

Bubble Teams (10):

There are three spots available for this group. That number goes down with any bid stealers. However, it could also go up if any of the In for Nows stumble badly.

Pitt – let’s start with the Panthers. They are the case study for whether the committee will give the ACC a boost. They have four Quad 1 wins, but none of those is a so-called Quad 1A win. Their Quad 2 record is only 3-4, and the have two bad losses. Their NET is mediocre. The only reason I can come up with that the talking heads have them in is, they can’t believe the committee will leave out a team that is 14-5 in the ACC. And maybe they’re right. The winning record against Quad 1 is a major point in their favor. They play at Miami this weekend. A win there would clinch it. If they lose that game, they really need to win the ACC quarterfinal, and they need that to be a Quad 1 win, which means Duke, NC State, or North Carolina. Beating Clemson doesn’t help them as much. Bottom line is, if they don’t get another Quad 1 win, I think they will be left out.

North Carolina – I think the Tar Heels are in a similar boat to Pitt. They need another Quad 1 win. It could be against Duke on Saturday, or it could be in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. I think their position is slightly weaker than Pitt’s; I’m not convinced that one Quad 1 win is enough, and it may depend on bid stealers and what the other bubble teams do. They need two more Quad 1 wins to be safe.

Penn State – the Lions got a huge win on Wednesday at Northwestern, their fourth Quad 1. That is solid, but like Pitt, the rest of their resume is underwhelming. In fact, their resume is very much like Pitt’s. They need to beat Maryland at home on Sunday and win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament. That’s the minimum. They may need to get to the semis of the tournament.

Oklahoma State – a slightly worse version of West Virginia. Five Quad 1 wins, but an awful lot of losses, including their last five, and nothing like West Virginia’s impressive non-conference performance. Being in the Big 12, they’ll have plenty of opportunities to impress the committee. Between their last regular season game at Texas Tech and the Big 12 Tournament, they need two wins to be safe. No team with seven Quad 1 wins has ever been left out. If they were to beat Texas Tech and lose in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, that would be interesting; they would have six Quad 1 wins, which historically is close to a guarantee, but their overall record would be 17-15. With the late season slide, I don’t think it would be good enough.

Wisconsin – the Badgers are difficult to get a read on. They have six Quad 1 wins. Only three teams with six Q1s have been left out since 2016. However, for some reason the NET thinks they are terrible at number 77. The lowest ranked NET team ever to get an at-large was Rutgers last year, and they were, guess what, 77. It’s hard to know what to do with all of that. One thing is for sure: they can’t lose to Minnesota on Sunday. My sense is, if they beat Minnesota and score a Quad 1 win in the Big 10 Tournament, they’ll make it; otherwise, they probably won’t.

Arizona State – similar to Wisconsin. Poor NET, poor record against Quad 2, relying on their Quad 1 record, which includes four wins overall including a neutral court win over Creighton and a really impressive win at Arizona. Some bracketologists have them in right now. I don’t. Winning at USC on Saturday would help a lot, plus a quarterfinal win in the tournament. Otherwise they need a run to the Pac-12 final.

Michigan – now we’re getting to the deep cuts. Michigan is almost certainly not in right now. What do they have to do to win their way in? Winning at Indiana on Sunday would be a great start, and might just be enough depending on what else happens. Most likely, though, they need two more Quad 1 wins. Either Indiana and the tournament quarterfinal, or getting to the Big 10 Tournament final.

Oregon – the *really* deep cuts. Oregon, just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final. Even then, I doubt it, but say they beat Arizona State in the quarters and UCLA in the semis? I guess that could be enough if things break their way.

Clemson – Clemson’s four bad losses really kill them. Let’s say they beat Duke or NC State in the quarters and Virginia or Miami in the semis? Similar to Oregon, that might be enough. Anything short of that will not be unless the committee has a real soft spot for the ACC.

Texas Tech – why do I have them on here? Because they play in the Big 12. Practically every game is a Quad 1. If they beat Oklahoma State to close the regular season, then beat, say, West Virginia, Kansas, and Texas to reach the Big 12 tournament final? Yeah, they would make it. I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance it will happen, but I can’t rule it out.

ACC Tournament Seedings – 3/2

The picture is getting much clearer. Everybody has one game left except NC State, who is done. Here is how things stand.

Miami (14-5; vs. Pitt remaining)

If Miami beats Pitt, they are the 1 seed. If they lose to Pitt, there are a lot of possible ties, including the possibility of a four-way tie for second between Miami, Virginia, Duke, and Clemson. Miami beat Virginia and Clemson this year, so in general they do well in those tiebreakers, but the one tie they could lose is a two way tie with Duke. They split with the Blue Devils, and Duke beat Pitt while Miami did not (if they lose). So if Virginia wins, Duke wins, and Clemson loses, then Virginia is the 2, Duke is the 3, and Miami is the 4.

Pitt (14-5; at Miami remaining)

Pitt’s ACC Tournament seed is the least of their worries right now. They need to beat Miami to solidify an NCAA Tournament berth, which in my opinion is in real jeopardy after their loss to Notre Dame. If they do manage to win, they’re the 1 seed by virtue of their tiebreaker advantage over Virginia. If they lose, they could fall as far as the 5 if Duke and Clemson both win.

Virginia (14-5; vs. Louisville remaining)

Virginia is headed for the 2 seed. I’ll eat my hat if they lose to Louisville at home. But if the unthinkable does happen, they’re still the 3 as they have the tiebreaker over Duke and Clemson.

Clemson (13-6; vs. ND remaining)

If Clemson wins, they’ll be tied with the loser of Pitt-Miami, and possibly Duke, and possibly Virginia. That could turn out in a variety of different ways, as the Tigers beat Pitt and Duke but lost to Miami and Virginia. So it really depends on whom they are tied with. I don’t think it’s possible for them to get the 2, but it’s very hard to tell who wins a 4-way tie between Virginia, Pitt, Clemson, and Duke. I think Virginia does. So the Tigers get the 3 or the 4 if they win. If they lose, they’re the 5 unless Duke also loses, in which case they’re the 4.

Duke (13-6; at UNC remaining)

Like Clemson, Duke gets into lots of 14-6 tiebreaker scenarios if they win. They split with Miami, they beat Pitt, they lost to Clemson and Virginia. Can they get the 2 seed? Let’s see, their best scenario would be a tie for second with Pitt and Virginia (which means Clemson has to lose). That’s a challenging tiebreaker, but I think Pitt would win it. So no, I don’t think Duke can get the 2. But they can get the 3 if they wind up in a 2-way tie for third the Pitt-Miami loser. Which would mean Virginia would have to win and Clemson would have to lose. If the Blue Devils lose, they are the 5.

NC State (12-8; finished)

NC State is the 6 seed unless Carolina beats Duke and Pitt beats Miami, in which case they fall to 7.

UNC (11-8; vs. Duke remaining)

The Tar Heels are the 7 unless they beat Duke and Pitt beats Miami, in which case they are the 6.

Wake (10-9; at Syracuse remaining)

Wake is the 8 if they win. If they lose, they are the 9 if BC loses and the 10 if BC wins.

Syracuse (9-10, vs. Wake remaining)

The Orange are the 8 if they win. If they lose, they’re the 9 if BC loses, the 10 if BC wins.

Boston College (9-10; vs. GT remaining)

BC is the 10 if they lose. If they win, they can be the 9 if Wake loses.

Florida State (7-12; at Va Tech remaining)

The winner of FSU – Va Tech is the 11 and the loser is the 12.

Virginia Tech (7-12; vs. FSU remaining)

The winner of FSU – Va Tech is the 11 and the loser is the 12.

Georgia Tech (5-14; at BC remaining)

The Jackets are the 13. It’s locked.

Notre Dame (3-16; at Clemson remaining)

Notre Dame is the 14. It’s locked.

Louisville (2-17; at Virginia remaining)

Denny Crum must be turning over in his grave.