The picture is getting much clearer. Everybody has one game left except NC State, who is done. Here is how things stand.
Miami (14-5; vs. Pitt remaining)
If Miami beats Pitt, they are the 1 seed. If they lose to Pitt, there are a lot of possible ties, including the possibility of a four-way tie for second between Miami, Virginia, Duke, and Clemson. Miami beat Virginia and Clemson this year, so in general they do well in those tiebreakers, but the one tie they could lose is a two way tie with Duke. They split with the Blue Devils, and Duke beat Pitt while Miami did not (if they lose). So if Virginia wins, Duke wins, and Clemson loses, then Virginia is the 2, Duke is the 3, and Miami is the 4.
Pitt (14-5; at Miami remaining)
Pitt’s ACC Tournament seed is the least of their worries right now. They need to beat Miami to solidify an NCAA Tournament berth, which in my opinion is in real jeopardy after their loss to Notre Dame. If they do manage to win, they’re the 1 seed by virtue of their tiebreaker advantage over Virginia. If they lose, they could fall as far as the 5 if Duke and Clemson both win.
Virginia (14-5; vs. Louisville remaining)
Virginia is headed for the 2 seed. I’ll eat my hat if they lose to Louisville at home. But if the unthinkable does happen, they’re still the 3 as they have the tiebreaker over Duke and Clemson.
Clemson (13-6; vs. ND remaining)
If Clemson wins, they’ll be tied with the loser of Pitt-Miami, and possibly Duke, and possibly Virginia. That could turn out in a variety of different ways, as the Tigers beat Pitt and Duke but lost to Miami and Virginia. So it really depends on whom they are tied with. I don’t think it’s possible for them to get the 2, but it’s very hard to tell who wins a 4-way tie between Virginia, Pitt, Clemson, and Duke. I think Virginia does. So the Tigers get the 3 or the 4 if they win. If they lose, they’re the 5 unless Duke also loses, in which case they’re the 4.
Duke (13-6; at UNC remaining)
Like Clemson, Duke gets into lots of 14-6 tiebreaker scenarios if they win. They split with Miami, they beat Pitt, they lost to Clemson and Virginia. Can they get the 2 seed? Let’s see, their best scenario would be a tie for second with Pitt and Virginia (which means Clemson has to lose). That’s a challenging tiebreaker, but I think Pitt would win it. So no, I don’t think Duke can get the 2. But they can get the 3 if they wind up in a 2-way tie for third the Pitt-Miami loser. Which would mean Virginia would have to win and Clemson would have to lose. If the Blue Devils lose, they are the 5.
NC State (12-8; finished)
NC State is the 6 seed unless Carolina beats Duke and Pitt beats Miami, in which case they fall to 7.
UNC (11-8; vs. Duke remaining)
The Tar Heels are the 7 unless they beat Duke and Pitt beats Miami, in which case they are the 6.
Wake (10-9; at Syracuse remaining)
Wake is the 8 if they win. If they lose, they are the 9 if BC loses and the 10 if BC wins.
Syracuse (9-10, vs. Wake remaining)
The Orange are the 8 if they win. If they lose, they’re the 9 if BC loses, the 10 if BC wins.
Boston College (9-10; vs. GT remaining)
BC is the 10 if they lose. If they win, they can be the 9 if Wake loses.
Florida State (7-12; at Va Tech remaining)
The winner of FSU – Va Tech is the 11 and the loser is the 12.
Virginia Tech (7-12; vs. FSU remaining)
The winner of FSU – Va Tech is the 11 and the loser is the 12.
Georgia Tech (5-14; at BC remaining)
The Jackets are the 13. It’s locked.
Notre Dame (3-16; at Clemson remaining)
Notre Dame is the 14. It’s locked.
Louisville (2-17; at Virginia remaining)
Denny Crum must be turning over in his grave.