Final Bracket

I’m posting this bracket while the AAC and Big 10 Championship games are still in progress. I wish they would move those earlier in the day. It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Purdue. If Purdue loses, I would move Texas to the top line and drop Purdue to a 2. However, because of the timing of the game, the committee may have to make a final decision before the end of the game. This also impacts Penn State; if they beat Purdue, they deserve to move up to a 9. But again, the committee may not be able to consider that because of timing.

I think Houston is a #1 regardless of the outcome of the AAC game, but if Memphis wins, I would move them up a line and move Miami down.

I’ve spent a lot of time looking at the last few teams and trying to make sense of how the committee might view them. And my final answer is to go with Arizona State as my last team in, for one reason: they have five Quad 1 wins, and not one of them was at home. Their resume has a lot of weaknesses; 5-5 against Quad 2 and a Quad 4 loss is not good, and the computers don’t particularly like them. But when push comes to shove, win quality is more important than any other single factor for the committee, and the Sun Devils have it. I think that will make the difference.

Of course I’m always interested in NC State. Their situation seems to have deteriorated in the past couple of days, probably as the bracketologists reflect on their three losses to Clemson and, consciously or unconsciously, are bothered by the Wolfpack being ahead of the Tigers in the pecking order.

But I still think they’re going to make it. Their 7-4 Quad 2 record is very good, and they have no bad losses. Their wins over Duke, Dayton, Vanderbilt, and Furman have aged well as those teams played well down the stretch.

If you’re watching the Selection Show and you want to know when the moment of truth has arrived, here’s what you do. Get a piece of paper and write down these teams: Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Nevada, Clemson, Pitt. Every time one of them is announced – pay special attention to the 10 and 11 seeds – cross it off. When you’ve crossed off six teams, that’s it. The other three are not going to make it.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

1. Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue
2. Texas, UCLA, Arizona, Gonzaga
3. Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Xavier
4. Tennessee, Kansas State, Duke, San Diego State
5. Texas A&M, Virginia, Indiana, St. Mary’s
6. Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Memphis
7. Miami, Florida Atlantic, Creighton, West Virginia
8. Arkansas, Utah State, Michigan State, Missouri
9. Northwestern, Boise State, Auburn, Maryland
10. Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, USC
11. Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State
12. College of Charleston, VCU, Drake, Oral Roberts
13. Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, Furman
14. Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont, Grand Canyon
15. Colgate, Princeton, Montana State, UNC Asheville
16. Northern Kentucky, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Howard, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern

Last Four Byes: Iowa, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State

First Four Out: Nevada, Clemson, Pitt, Vanderbilt