Standings Overview
With four weeks left in the college football regular season, some things are starting to come into focus.
Florida State will make the College Football Playoff if they don’t lose a game, and they could make it even if they do.
Florida State is going to be in the ACC championship. They haven’t clinched yet, there are some tiebreaker scenarios where they don’t make it, but it’s a near certainty at this point.
If Louisville beats Virginia Tech this weekend, then the Cardinals have the clear inside track on the second spot. If the Hokies win, that throws things into a bit of chaos and gives all the two-loss teams hope.
After Louisville, there is tremendous parity. The gap between third place Virginia Tech and last place Syracuse is not large.
And almost no one has been eliminated from anything yet. There are too many games left. There are still scenarios where the four-loss teams – Clemson, Wake Forest, and Syracuse – could finish in a tie for second place. I don’t know if they could win the tiebreakers and make the ACC Championship, but it’s not completely off the table. The three- and two-loss teams are still in the hunt for a spot in the championship, but they probably need to win out.
In terms of bowl eligibility, FSU, Louisville, Carolina, and Miami are there. Boston College, Duke, and NC State are almost there. Clemson, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech have a lot of work to do. And Pitt and Virginia are almost done. I’d say the over/under on bowl eligible teams from the ACC right now is 10.
ACC Bowl Prospects
Let’s remind ourselves of the ACC’s bowl tie-ins and how the selections work. It’s quite complex, and there is some conflicting information on the Internet, but here is what I have pieced together.
The best way to think of it is in tiers:
ACC Champion (“Tier 0”): Orange Bowl
Tier 1: Holiday Bowl, Gator Bowl, Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It/Camping World/Russell Athletic/etc.) Bowl
Tier 2: Pinstripe Bowl, Duke’s Mayo Bowl, Fenway Bowl, Military Bowl, Sun Bowl
Tier 3: Gasparilla Bowl, Birmingham Bowl, First Responder Bowl
Think of the tiers as the draft order. The Tier 1 bowls get together and pick their three; then the Tier 2 bowls get together and pick their five from the teams that are left; then the Tier 3 bowls get the leftovers. Last year, the only bowl-eligible team left after Tier 2 was Wake Forest, so they went to the Gasparilla.
Within each tier, the decisions about who goes where are opaque and are presumably made by a cadre of conference and bowl officials, based on fan interest, attractiveness of matchup, and how recently a school has been to that particular bowl.
Now where it gets really complicated is, there are three “wild cards” that can affect the order I just laid out. Two of them take the form of an additional ACC bowl slot that has the effect of pulling everyone up one rung on the ladder. The third has the opposite effect: it essentially steals a bowl from an ACC team and pushes everyone down a rung. Let’s go over these potential wild cards.
Wild Card #1: College Football Playoff
If the ACC Champion finishes in the Top 4 of the CFP rankings, they go to the College Football Playoff. If this happens, the highest-ranked team after the champion goes to the Orange Bowl, and everyone else gets pulled up one rung. This is a strong possibility for Florida State.
Wild Card #2: The ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl
The ReliaQuest Bowl features an SEC team against either a Big Ten team or an ACC team. The choice depends on whether the Orange Bowl chooses an SEC team or a Big Ten team. If they choose the Big Ten, then the ACC gets the Big Ten’s slot in the ReliaQuest Bowl and everyone below gets pulled up one rung. This arrangement has been in place for a few years, but the ACC has never landed in this bowl. This year, it seems like there is a decent chance that a one-loss Big Ten team (Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State) will wind up in the Orange Bowl and the ACC will get the ReliaQuest slot.
Wild Card #3: Notre Dame
Notre Dame can be selected instead of an ACC team for the ACC’s Tier 1 and Tier 2 bowl slots (they are not eligible for the Orange Bowl). The upshot is that if Notre Dame does not make a New Year’s Six bowl, they probably steal a bowl slot from an ACC team and push everyone down one rung. This year, I think the Irish have a great chance to make the New Year’s Six as a two-loss team.
So if you’re a fan of one of the middle of the pack teams, and you’re hoping to get to a Tier 1 bowl, you should be rooting for:
- Florida State to win out and make the CFP
- Notre Dame to win out and make the New Year’s Six
- The Big Ten to make the Orange Bowl instead of the SEC. It’s very complicated to know exactly what to pull for in order for that to come about.
If all of that were to happen, then Florida State would go to the CFP, the next highest team from the ACC (let’s say Louisville) would go to the Orange, the next best team from the ACC (let’s say Carolina) would go to the ReliaQuest, and the next three teams (let’s say Duke, Miami, and NC State) would go to the Gator, Holiday, and Pop Tarts.
On the other extreme, if none of those three things happens, then the ACC Champ (let’s say FSU) would go to the Orange, Notre Dame would steal one of the Tier 1 bowls, and there would be only two Tier 1 slots left for, say, Louisville and Carolina, and everyone else would be relegated to Tier 2/3.
Team By Team
Florida State (8-0, 4-0)
Games Remaining: at Pitt, Miami, North Alabama, at Florida
Possible Records: 12-0 (37%), 11-1 (45%), 10-2 (16%), 9-3 (2%), 8-4 (effectively 0%)
Bowl Possibilities: They’ll be in the playoff if they go undefeated. I think they have a decent chance to make the playoff with one loss.
Louisville (7-1, 4-1)
Games Remaining: Virginia Tech, Virginia, at Miami, Kentucky
Possible Records: 11-1 (23%), 10-2 (42%), 9-3 (27%), 8-4 (7%), 7-5 (1%)
Bowl Possibilities: They have a great shot at the Orange Bowl if Florida State winds up in the CFP. If they beat Virginia Tech on Saturday, that doesn’t quite clinch a spot in the ACC Championship game, but it gets them close.
Virginia Tech (4-4, 3-1)
Games Remaining: at Louisville, at BC, NC State, at Virginia
Possible Records: 8-4 (3%), 7-5 (19%), 6-6 (38%), 5-7 (31%), 4-8 (9%)
Bowl Possibilities: Of all the teams on this list, the widest range of possibilities. If they can beat Louisville on Saturday, suddenly they have the inside track to be in the ACC Championship game. On the other hand, they could easily wind up with a losing record. A 6- or 7-win Virginia Tech would be attractive for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte.
North Carolina (6-2, 3-2)
Games Remaining: Campbell, Duke, at Clemson, at NC State
Possible Records: 10-2 (12%), 9-3 (38%), 8-4 (37%), 7-5 (12%), 6-6 (1%)
Bowl Possibilities: I’m guessing Gator or Pop Tarts if they can get to 9 wins. 8 might be enough.
Georgia Tech (4-4, 3-2)
Games Remaining: at Virginia, at Clemson, Syracuse, Georgia
Possible Records: 8-4 (<1%), 7-5 (5%), 6-6 (27%), 5-7 (45%), 4-8 (23%)
Bowl Possibilities: I have them as only a 33% chance to become bowl eligible. If they do make it, they might be a candidate for the Military, or maybe Tier 3.
Duke (5-3, 2-2)
Games Remaining: Wake, at UNC, at Virginia, Pitt
Possible Records: 9-3 (10%), 8-4 (33%), 7-5 (37%), 6-6 (17%), 5-7 (3%)
Bowl Possibilities: A wide range of possibilities. If they can get to 8 wins, I like them in the Holiday Bowl. If not, Sun Bowl perhaps?
Miami (6-2, 2-2)
Games Remaining: at NC State, at FSU, Louisville, at BC
Possible Records: 10-2 (3%), 9-3 (18%), 8-4 (38%), 7-5 (32%), 6-6 (9%)
Bowl Possibilities: A very challenging schedule the rest of the way. Probably not going to win in Tallahassee and the other games are close to toss-ups. 9-3 or even 8-4 Miami would be attractive for one of the Tier 1 bowls (Pop Tarts, Holiday, or Gator). 6 or 7 wins could be Sun Bowl.
NC State (5-3, 2-2)
Games Remaining: Miami, at Wake, at Virginia Tech, UNC
Possible Records: 9-3 (5%), 8-4 (23%), 7-5 (38%), 6-6 (27%), 5-7 (7%)
Bowl Possibilities: Four games left that are close to toss-ups. They could go just about anywhere. If I had to bet right now, I’d bet Military or Pinstripe. Need to get to 8 wins to think about a Tier 1.
Boston College (5-3, 2-2)
Games Remaining: at Syracuse, Virginia Tech, at Pitt, Miami
Possible Records: 9-3 (2%), 8-4 (14%), 7-5 (34%), 6-6 (36%), 5-7 (14%)
Bowl Possibilities: Gotta be the Fenway Bowl, right?
Clemson (4-4, 2-4)
Games Remaining: Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, UNC, at South Carolina
Possible Records: 8-4 (13% chance), 7-5 (38%), 6-6 (35%), 5-7 (13%), 4-8 (1%)
Bowl Possibilities: Their first step is to get bowl-eligible. If they lose to Notre Dame on Saturday, that is in jeopardy. They would be very attractive for the Gator at 7-5 or the Duke’s Mayo or Sun at 6-6.
Pitt (2-6, 1-3)
Games Remaining: FSU, at Syracuse, BC, at Duke
Possible Records: 6-6 (3%), 5-7 (20%), 4-8 (40%), 3-9 (29%), 2-10 (7%)
Bowl Possibilities: Probably will not be bowl-eligible.
Virginia (2-6, 1-3)
Games Remaining: Georgia Tech, at Louisville, Duke, Virginia Tech
Possible Records: 6-6 (2%), 5-7 (15%), 4-8 (37%), 3-9 (35%), 2-10 (11%)
Bowl Possibilities: Probably will not be bowl-eligible.
Wake Forest (4-4, 1-4)
Games Remaining: at Duke, NC State, at Notre Dame, at Syracuse
Possible Records: 8-4 (1%), 7-5 (13%), 6-6 (35%), 5-7 (37%), 4-8 (13%)
Bowl Possibilities: A tough remaining schedule. I don’t like their chances to get to bowl eligibility. If they do, they could go Military or Pinstripe.
Syracuse (4-4, 0-4)
Games Remaining: BC, Pitt, at Georgia Tech, Wake
Possible Records: 8-4 (7%), 7-5 (27%), 6-6 (38%), 5-7 (23%), 4-8 (5%)
Bowl Possibilities: The wheels appear to be coming off, but the remaining schedule is very favorable. BC game seems like their last stand if they are going to salvage anything from this season. They are a natural for the Pinstripe Bowl, but they went there last year. Possibly Military, or could drop to a Tier 3 if there are enough bowl-eligible teams.
Notre Dame (7-2)
Games Remaining: at Clemson, Wake, at Stanford
Possible Records: 10-2 (46%), 9-3 (43%), 8-4 (10%), 7-5 (1%)
Bowl Possibilities: If they can beat Clemson on Saturday, I predict they will wind up in a New Year’s Six bowl as a 2-loss team. If that doesn’t happen, they will take a spot from an ACC team in the Pop Tarts or Holiday Bowl.