It has been a busy weekend in bubble land.
- West Virginia, Auburn, and USC moved up to Locks with their wins over Kansas State, Tennessee, and Arizona State respectively
- Penn State and Oklahoma State got huge wins to move them up in the bubble pecking order
- Nevada had a damaging home loss to UNLV which makes their position precarious
- Mississippi State, Arizona State, North Carolina, and Pitt failed to get the wins they needed to solidify their positions
- Utah State got their first Quad 1 win against Boise State
As I write this, Wisconsin and Rutgers haven’t played yet. Wisconsin’s game against Minnesota won’t help them if they win, but it will hurt them if they lose. If Rutgers can beat Northwestern, I think it will move them to a Lock.
I need to correct and clarify a couple of things from Friday’s post. One, I was unclear about the status of Florida Atlantic. I do consider them a lock. If someone else wins the Conference USA Tournament, the Owls will get in and that will be a bid steal.
Also, I neglected to include Utah State in my list of bubble teams. I’m not sure how that happened, but in any case, they are definitely in that group. In fact, with their win over Boise State, I think they would be in if the tournament started today.
With that, let’s run through the updated lists.
Locks (39):
Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois
Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia
SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn
Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence
ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke
Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC
Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State
West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
American (2) – Houston, Memphis
Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic
In for Now (2):
With their losses yesterday, I am moving Nevada and Mississippi State down into the bubble group. I am no longer convinced that they would be in if the tournament started today. The only two teams I am certain would be in today are:
Rutgers – I’m moving them to a lock if they can beat Northwestern today.
NC State – they probably benefited from not playing yesterday while a number of bubble teams around them lost. If they beat Virginia Tech on Wednesday, I’ll move them to a Lock.
Bubble Teams (5 bids available, 12 teams):
At this moment, my five bids would go to Nevada, Utah State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Penn State. Or maybe Wisconsin. With their loss to Oklahoma State yesterday, Texas Tech is off the list. Teams are listed in rank order.
Nevada – killer home loss to UNLV. They cannot afford to lose in the quarters of the Mountain West Tournament. Depending on what else happens, they may need to get to the Mountain West final.
Utah State – yes, they only have one Quad 1 win, but there is precedent for that. 8-1 against Quad 2 is outstanding. They are number 21 in the NET. No team ranked in the top 25 in the NET has ever been left out. They’re probably headed for a MWC Tournament semifinal rubber match with Boise State. A win there should clinch it for Utah State.
Mississippi State – they are hanging by a thread. Unless they make a run in the SEC Tournament, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Oklahoma State – with their win over Texas Tech, I have them in right now, but it’s precarious. They need to beat Oklahoma on Wednesday, and then they’ll get a chance to end all doubt with a quarterfinal against Texas. If they don’t win that, they’ll be sweating it out.
Penn State – the Lions got their second straight big win on Sunday over Maryland. That puts them on the right side of the cut line, but their position is anything but safe. They need to win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament, at a minimum.
Wisconsin – if they can avoid a bad loss against Minnesota today, their 6 Quad 1 wins will be hard to keep out. Their NET is 78, which would be the lowest to ever get an at-large bid.
Pitt – is it possible that the ACC could get only four teams in? Yup. I don’t see why Lunardi and Jerry Palm have Pitt in. What about their resume is better than, say, Wisconsin or Arizona State? Maybe they know something I don’t about the committee, but looking strictly at their resume, it’s not good enough. I say they have to beat Duke on Thursday or they’re not getting in.
North Carolina – they have to beat Boston College and Virginia to get to the semis of the ACC Tournament. Otherwise they are not getting in. Even that would not be a guarantee; it might take a run to the finals.
Michigan – Jerry Palm has them in right now. I don’t see it. Beat Indiana today, and now we’re talking. My guess is, that won’t be quite enough. They’ll need to get to the semis of the Big 10 Tournament.
Arizona State – they needed to beat USC and they didn’t. They’ll probably play Oregon in the Pac-12 quarters. Consider that an elimination game. My guess is that the winner will need to beat UCLA in the semis to get in.
Oregon – just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final.
Clemson – they need to pull for NC State to win on Wednesday, because beating Virginia Tech doesn’t do them any good. They have to beat the Wolfpack or they have no shot. To have a realistic shot, they have to make the ACC Tournament final.