I thought about copying and pasting this article from last year and see if anyone would notice… it does seems to be a rite of spring for Kevin Keatts’ Wolfpack – the Bubble Watch. And this year is no different. The Wolfpack’s profile is quite different from last year, when they played a weak non-conference schedule and lacked marquee wins. This year, they beat Wisconsin and Duke at home and Virginia on the road, so they have enough good wins, but sweeps at the hands of Carolina and Georgia Tech, along with a loss at Boston College, have seemingly cancelled out those good wins. And so the Wolfpack find themselves right around the cut line. Again.
There are lots of ways to look at this, but the one I like is this one. There are 68 teams in the field. 12 teams have already punched their tickets:
- Atlantic Sun: Liberty
- Big South: Winthrop
- Colonial Athletic: Hofstra
- Horizon League: Northern Kentucky
- Ivy League: Yale
- Missouri Valley: Bradley
- Mountain West: Utah State
- Northeast: Robert Morris
- Ohio Valley: Belmont
- Southern: East Tennessee State
- Summit League: North Dakota State
- West Coast: Gonzaga
That leaves 56 bids. Of the 56, 12 more will come from the champions of one-bid leagues:
- America East
- Big Sky
- Big West
- Conference USA
- MAAC
- MAC
- MEAC
- Patriot
- Southland
- Southwestern Athletic
- Sun Belt
- WAC
So that leaves 44 bids, 36 at-large bids and 8 bids for the champions of the multi-bid leagues whose tournaments are not yet decided:
- ACC
- American Athletic
- Atlantic 10
- Big 10
- Big 12
- Big East
- PAC 12
- SEC
I am making the call that there are 36 locks for those 44 bids:
Arizona
Auburn
Baylor
Butler
BYU
Colorado
Creighton
Dayton
Duke
Florida
Florida State
Houston
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
LSU
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Penn State
Providence
Rutgers
St. Mary’s
San Diego State
Seton Hall
USC
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
I feel a little bit nervous calling Rutgers and Oklahoma locks, but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
So we’re down to 8 bids left. And I would say that there are 11 teams in serious contention for those 8 bids:
Arizona State
Cincinnati
Indiana
NC State
Richmond
Stanford
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
Wichita State
Xavier
Now, always keep in mind the possibility of bid stealers. The way to think about bid stealers is this: if any team that is a) from one of the 8 multi-bid leagues above and b) NOT on the “Locks” list above wins a conference tournament – they grab one of the 8 up-for-grabs bids, leaving one less for everyone else.
If that doesn’t happen, then 8 of the 11 teams above will get in. There are still a couple of other teams that can’t be ruled out for an at-large if they make a deep run in the conference tourney – Mississippi State, possibly Purdue. But most likely, the 8 bids will come from those 11 teams.
Of those 11 teams, the conventional wisdom, which I agree with, is that 4 of the 11 – Arizona State, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Xavier will probably get in, barring an early conference tournament loss. Now I want to say that this is not a guarantee. None of the 11 teams I listed should be shocked to not hear their name called on Selection Sunday. That’s why I didn’t call them Locks. TCU was in a similar position last year, and they were left out. But I think that unless those teams get upset by a bad team in their tournaments, they will probably make it.
That leaves 4 bids to be split among Cincinnati, NC State, Richmond, Stanford, Texas, UCLA, and Wichita State.
Cincinnati and Wichita State would meet in the semifinals of the AAC Tournament on Saturday if both win on Friday. It’s tempting to call that an “elimination game”. I’m not certain of that, but I think Cincinnati especially would have a real uphill climb if they don’t win that game.
Richmond plays the winner of Davidson-LaSalle on Thursday, then probably Rhode Island in the semis if they win. I think if the Spiders can beat Rhode Island, they’ll probably make it. If not, they’re in trouble.
UCLA and Stanford may also be headed for an elimination game in the quarters of the Pac-12 tomorrow. Stanford first has to beat Cal tonight. UCLA has a very strange resume. They’re really low in the NET (#76) and they have some terrible losses – but they have 6 Quadrant 1 wins and, in my opinion, are in the field right now. I think there is a decent chance that both of these teams make it, but the loser of tomorrow’s game is going to be sweating.
Texas is also a weird team. They’re also low in the NET (#69), but for a different reason – they’ve been blown out a lot. They lost to West Virginia by 38, Providence by 22, Georgetown by 16, Iowa State by 29, and Oklahoma State by 22. BUT, they have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, 4 of which are on the road, and a home win against West Virginia. So good luck figuring them out. And, as luck would have it, they are matched up with… Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament. I’m loving these bubble team elimination games. I am saying that if Texas loses, they are out. Texas Tech I think could still have a chance with a loss.
So there you have it. If you’re a Wolfpack fan, you’re rooting for all of those other 10 teams to lose, and lose early. If they play each other, you’re rooting for the most vulnerable teams – probably Cincinnati and Texas – to lose.
And then of course you’re hoping for a win over Duke on Thursday, which would move the Wolfpack into Lock territory. If they don’t beat Duke, they are going to need a lot of help and a lot of luck, and I wouldn’t put their chances at more than 25%.