Bowl Eligibility
In: Florida State, Louisville, Carolina, State, Miami, BC, Duke, Clemson
One more win: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse
Two more wins: Wake Forest
Out: Pitt, Virginia
ACC Championship Outlook
The first slot is easy – Florida State is in.
The second slot is easy in one sense and hard in another. It’s easy in the sense that it’s highly probable that it will be Louisville – even if they lose to Miami. I’m going to talk at length about the scenarios where it isn’t, but keep in mind that it’s probably going to be Louisville and everything I’m about to say will come to nothing.
Obviously if Louisville beats Miami, they’re in. If they lose, it introduces the possibility of a second place tie with one or more of the two-loss teams: Virginia Tech, NC State, and Carolina. There are four possible tie scenarios:
- Louisville – NC State
- Louisville – Virginia Tech
- Louisville – North Carolina
- Louisville – Virginia Tech – North Carolina
Scenarios 1 and 2 are easy. Louisville beat both NC State and Virginia Tech, so they win those scenarios based on head-to-head. NC State has no chance to be in the championship game.
Scenario 3 is trickier, because Louisville and Carolina didn’t play each other. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. Unfortunately, that one doesn’t help either; both teams would be 4-2 against their common opponents (Georgia Tech, NC State, Pitt, Duke, Miami, Virginia). After that, they start looking at common opponents individually, starting at the top of the conference standings and descending until they find a common opponent that one team beat and the other didn’t. In this case, when they do that, the first team they will get to is Georgia Tech, whom Louisville beat and Carolina didn’t. So Louisville wins a two-way tie with Carolina.
Then there is Scenario 4. For three-way ties, here are the tiebreakers in order:
| Tiebreaker | How It Will Apply |
| Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents. | Not applicable, Carolina didn’t play VT or Louisville |
| If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams. | Not applicable, none of the teams beat the other two |
| Win percentage versus all common opponents. | Common opponents to all three teams are Pitt, NC State, and Virginia. In this scenario, UNC and VT would be 3-0 while Louisville would be 2-1. I assume this means Louisville is out. |
| Win percentage versus common opponents based on their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish. | Doesn’t help. UNC and VT both beat all their common opponents. |
| Combined win percentage of conference opponents. | As of this moment: VT 25-27 Louisville 22-27 UNC 19-31 VT or Louisville could still win this, or could finish tied. Carolina will finish below VT and Louisville, no matter what. |
So based on my reading of the tiebreakers, Virginia Tech wins the three-way tie. Which seems odd, considering Louisville beat Virginia Tech head-to-head, but interestingly, that seems to play no role in the three-team tiebreaker. I see no scenario where Carolina makes the ACC championship game, despite what I have been reading on the Internet in various places.
CFP Outlook
CFP Favorites
- The winner of Ohio St – Michigan will be in. Full stop.
- The SEC champion will be in, unless Alabama loses to Auburn and then beats Georgia. That would be a bit of a chaos scenario.
- Florida State and Washington will probably be in if they finish undefeated.
Wildcards and Chaos Scenarios
- If Georgia loses to Alabama, do they make it over FSU or Washington?
- Same question for the loser of Ohio State-Michigan?
- As mentioned above – if Alabama loses to Auburn but beats Georgia, who makes it from the SEC? My guess is, Georgia would make it.
Who is best positioned to benefit if FSU and/or Washington stumble?
- One loss Georgia, although they might make it anyway
- Loser of Ohio State – Michigan, although they might make it anyway
- Oregon, if they win out
- Texas, if they win out
Does anyone outside the current Top 8 in the CFP rankings (Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, FSU, Washington, Oregon, Texas, Alabama) have a chance to make it? What would have to happen?
The only two I can see are Oregon State and Louisville. Oregon State still plays Washington and Oregon, and if they win both of those, they might play Washington again in the Pac-12 championship. If they sweep those three games, that would be a helluva finish. They would still need some help; probably a Texas loss, an Alabama loss, and a Florida State loss. I think that would be enough.
Louisville… well, if they win out, if Texas and Alabama lose, and if Oregon, Washington, and Oregon State all beat up on each other, then maybe they could be the fourth team after Georgia, Ohio State, and Michigan.
ACC Team By Team
Florida State (10-0, 8-0)
Games Remaining: North Alabama, at Florida
Possible Records: 12-0 (63% chance), 11-1 (37%), 10-2 (effectively 0%)
Bowl Possibilities: They’ll be in the playoff if they go undefeated. If they lose to Florida but beat Louisville, they’ll wind up in the Orange Bowl. If they don’t win the ACC championship, they probably still go to a New Year’s Six bowl as an at large.
Louisville (9-1, 6-1)
Games Remaining: at Miami, Kentucky
Possible Records: 11-1 (37% chance), 10-2 (48%), 9-3 (15%)
Bowl Possibilities: They’re probably headed for the Orange Bowl. A very outside possibility of making the playoff. On the other extreme, if they lose two more games, North Carolina could jump over them for the Orange Bowl slot.
North Carolina (8-2, 4-2)
Games Remaining: at Clemson, at NC State
Possible Records: 10-2 (20%), 9-3 (51%), 8-4 (29%)
Bowl Possibilities: They should get a Tier 1 (Gator, Pop Tarts, or Holiday) if they can get to 9 wins with an outside shot at the ReliaQuest. If they win out and if Louisville loses a game or two, they could make the Orange Bowl. I see a very slim chance, but not zero, that they could make one of the other New Year’s Six bowls as an at large team if they win out, even if they don’t make the Orange Bowl.
NC State (7-3, 4-2)
Games Remaining: at Virginia Tech, UNC
Possible Records: 9-3 (25%), 8-4 (50%), 7-5 (25%)
Bowl Possibilities: I think there is an opening for them to get into the Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It) or the Holiday if they can get to 8 wins. ReliaQuest is an outside possibility if they can get to 9. Watch out for Clemson though – if they win their last two, one of the Tier 1 bowls will grab them and bump someone, possibly NC State, to Tier 2.
Virginia Tech (5-5, 4-2)
Games Remaining: NC State, at Virginia
Possible Records: 7-5 (25%), 6-6 (50%), 5-7 (25%)
Bowl Possibilities: If they get to six wins, they could be a good candidate for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte. If they get to seven, which means finishing 6-2 in the ACC, I’m not sure what happens. Could they sneak into the Gator Bowl?
Georgia Tech (5-5, 4-3)
Games Remaining: Syracuse, Georgia
Possible Records: 7-5 (5%), 6-6 (51%), 5-7 (44%)
Bowl Possibilities: They need to beat Syracuse to get to a Tier 2 bowl, probably Military or Pinstripe.
Duke (6-4, 3-3)
Games Remaining: at Virginia, Pitt
Possible Records: 8-4 (43%), 7-5 (45%), 6-6 (12%)
Bowl Possibilities: If they can get to 8 wins, I think they are the next team up for a Tier 1 bowl, probably Holiday, if Clemson stumbles.
Boston College (6-4, 3-3)
Games Remaining: at Pitt, Miami
Possible Records: 8-4 (12%), 7-5 (45%), 6-6 (43%)
Bowl Possibilities: Fenway Bowl would be the logical choice.
Clemson (6-4, 3-4)
Games Remaining: UNC, at South Carolina
Possible Records: 8-4 (40% chance), 7-5 (47%), 6-6 (13%)
Bowl Possibilities: After Notre Dame, they will be the prize. If they get to 8 wins, Tier 1 is a lock, and I could see them going Tier 1 even with 7. If they don’t go to Tier 1, the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte would love to have them.
Miami (6-4, 2-4)
Games Remaining: Louisville, at BC
Possible Records: 8-4 (27%), 7-5 (53%), 6-6 (20%)
Bowl Possibilities: Need to get to 8 wins to be in the Tier 1 conversation (Pop Tarts, Holiday, or Gator). 6 or 7 wins could be Sun Bowl.
Pitt (2-8, 1-5)
Games Remaining: BC, at Duke
Possible Records: 4-8 (22%), 3-9 (56%), 2-10 (22%)
Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.
Virginia (2-8, 1-5)
Games Remaining: Duke, Virginia Tech
Possible Records: 4-8 (17%), 3-9 (49%), 2-10 (34%)
Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.
Syracuse (5-5, 1-5)
Games Remaining: at Georgia Tech, Wake
Possible Records: 7-5 (26%), 6-6 (50%), 5-7 (24%)
Bowl Possibilities: If Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse all qualify, there will be one too many teams for the Tier 2 bowls, which means someone will drop to Tier 3 (Gasparilla/Birmingham/First Responder). My money is on the Orange.
Wake Forest (4-6, 1-6)
Games Remaining: at Notre Dame, at Syracuse
Possible Records: 6-6 (5%), 5-7 (47%), 4-8 (48%)
Bowl Possibilities: Doesn’t look good.
Notre Dame (7-3)
Games Remaining: Wake, at Stanford
Possible Records: 9-3 (75%), 8-4 (23%), 7-5 (2%)
Bowl Possibilities: With two relatively easy games remaining, they’re a virtual lock to go to a Tier 1 or ReliaQuest Bowl. If they finish 9-3, they’ll be the first pick of that group.