Tickets Punched
- Morehead State, Ohio Valley champions
- Longwood, Big South champions
- Drake, Missouri Valley champions
- Stetson, Atlantic Sun champions
Top Seeds
Obviously you have Purdue, UConn, and Houston. For the fourth #1, I would rank them Tennessee, Arizona, North Carolina right now, but it’s very close. If one of those three teams wins its conference tournament and the other two do not, that team will get it. If Iowa State were to win the Big 12 tournament and none of the other three teams won their tournament, that would be an interesting decision.
Bubble Watch
I feel reasonably confident that the first three teams I have listed as “Last Four Byes” – Seton Hall, Colorado, Mississippi State – are going to get in.
I feel somewhat confident that the teams I have listed as “Next Four Out” – Ohio State, Memphis, Utah, and Iowa – are not going to get in.
That leaves nine teams – Texas A&M, my “Last Four In” and “First Four Out” – fighting for at most four spots, assuming no bid stealers.
I have Texas A&M at the top of that list due to their win quality. 11 wins against Quad 1 and 2 is just too much to leave out, considering the competition. But 2-4 against Quad 3 gives me pause.
I’m not sure that Indiana State is receiving serious consideration as an at-large candidate, and I understand why, but I think there is precedent for a team like them getting in, for example Drake 2021.
Villanova‘s record is 17-14. They must win a game in the Big East Tournament, or they have no shot. I don’t see the committee putting them in at 17-15.
ACC Watch
Virginia, Pitt, and Wake Forest are extremely close. In the NET, it goes Wake, Pitt, Virginia. In the results-based metrics, it goes Virginia, Pitt, Wake. In the predictive metrics, it goes Wake, Pitt, Virginia. Each team has 2 Quad 1 wins. Virginia’s Quad 2/3 record is similar to Pitt’s, perhaps a shade better, while Wake is only 6-6 against Quad 2.
Pitt and Wake are probably going to play each other in the ACC Tournament. It’s tempting to call that an elimination game, and it may well be. Virginia is probably going to play Clemson. That game could secure the Cavaliers’ spot in the field. If they lose… I don’t know. It will depend on what the other teams do.
Elevator Report
| Team | Prior Seed | New Seed | Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad) |
| Baylor | 2 | 3 | L 78-68 at Texas Tech (NET 30, Quad 1-A) |
| Creighton | 3 | 2 | W 69-67 at Villanova (NET 33, Quad 1-A) |
| Duke | 3 | 4 | L 84-79 vs. North Carolina (NET 7, Quad 1-A) |
| Kentucky | 4 | 3 | W 85-81 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A) |
| Florida | 5 | 7 | L 79-78 at Vanderbilt (NET 203, Quad 3) |
| Wisconsin | 5 | 6 | L 78-70 at Purdue (NET 2, Quad 1-A) |
| Dayton | 6 | 5 | W 91-86 vs. VCU (NET 76, Quad 3) |
| San Diego State | 6 | 7 | L 79-77 vs. Boise State (NET 23, Quad 1-B) |
| Texas Tech | 7 | 5 | W 78-68 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A) |
| Gonzaga | 7 | 6 | Idle |
| Washington State | 7 | 8 | Idle |
| St. Mary’s | 7 | 8 | Idle |
| Nebraska | 8 | 7 | W 85-70 at Michigan (NET 132, Quad 2) |
| Texas | 8 | 7 | W 94-80 vs. Oklahoma (NET 43, Quad 2) |
| Michigan State | 8 | 9 | L 65-64 at Indiana (NET 93, Quad 2) |
| TCU | 9 | 10 | L 79-77 vs UCF (NET 61, Quad 2) |
| Florida Atlantic | 9 | 8 | W 92-84 vs. Memphis (NET 69, Quad 2) |
| Mississippi State | 9 | 11 | L 93-89 vs. South Carolina (NET 49, Quad 2) |
| Northwestern | 10 | 9 | W 90-66 vs. Minnesota (NET 86, Quad 3) |
| Boise State | 10 | 9 | W 79-77 at San Diego State (NET 20, Quad 1-A) |
| Colorado | 11 | 10 | W 73-57 at Oregon State (NET 161, Quad 3) |
| Villanova | 11 | Out | L 69-67 vs. Creighton (NET 11, Quad 1-A) |
| New Mexico | 11 | Out | L 87-85 at Utah State (NET 32, Quad 1-A) |
| Texas A&M | Out | 11 | W 86-60 at Ole Miss (NET 90, Quad 2) |
| Pitt | Out | 12 | W 81-73 vs. NC State (NET 81, Quad 3) |
| High Point | 14 | Out | Lost in Big South tourney |
| Morehead State | 15 | 14 | Won OVC tourney |
| Eastern Washington | 15 | Out | Lost in Big Sky tourney |
| Quinnipiac | 16 | 15 | In MAAC tourney |
| Weber State | Out | 15 | In Big Sky tourney |
| Longwood | Out | 16 | Won Big South tourney |
The Bracket (automatic bids in bold, tickets punched in CAPS)
- Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
- Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Creighton
- Marquette, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
- Duke, Auburn, Illinois, Alabama
- BYU, Texas Tech, Clemson, Dayton
- Nevada, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
- Texas, Florida, San Diego State, Nebraska
- Utah State, Washington State, St. Mary’s, Florida Atlantic
- Boise State, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Northwestern
- Colorado State, TCU, Colorado, Seton Hall
- Mississippi State, Texas A&M, St. John’s, Virginia, DRAKE, Princeton
- Indiana State, Pitt, Grand Canyon, James Madison
- McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
- College of Charleston, Louisiana Tech, MOREHEAD STATE, Akron
- Oakland, Colgate, Weber State, Quinnipiac
- South Dakota St., LONGWOOD, STETSON, Norfolk State, Merrimack, Southern
Last Four Byes: Colorado, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Last Four In: St. John’s, Virginia, Indiana State, Pitt
First Four Out: Wake Forest, New Mexico, Providence, Villanova
Next Four Out: Ohio State, Memphis, Utah, Iowa