Home stretch here. Let’s look at where things stand. Automatic bids in bold.
- Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
- Houston, UConn, Iowa State, Illinois
- Michigan State, Purdue, Gonzaga, Nebraska
- Virginia, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Alabama
- Tennessee, St. John’s, Texas Tech, Arkansas
- Wisconsin, Louisville, UNC, BYU
- Miami FL, St. Mary’s, Clemson, Utah State
- Kentucky, Georgia, UCLA, Ohio State
- Villanova, St. Louis, Iowa, Texas A&M
- TCU, Santa Clara, NC State, VCU
- Missouri, Miami OH, UCF, SMU, Texas, South Florida
- Akron, McNeese State, Yale, Northern Iowa
- High Point, Utah Valley, Hofstra, UC Irvine
- Sam Houston, North Dakota State, Wright State, Troy
- Idaho, UMBC, Furman, Siena
- Queens, Tennessee State, LIU, Howard, Southern, Lehigh
Last Four Byes: Santa Clara, NC State, VCU, Missouri
Last Four In (Dayton-bound): Miami OH, UCF, SMU, Texas
First Three Out: Oklahoma, New Mexico, San Diego State
Not Going to Make It As an At-Large: Everyone else. Sorry Auburn, Indiana, Cincinnati, Stanford, and Virginia Tech.
Bubble Picture
It finally happened. Miami Ohio’s luck ran out. I am inclined to agree with the experts that the committee will put them in the field – but it would not be the shock of my life if they don’t. My guess is they will put them in the First Four in Dayton – sort of an “OK, show us you deserve to be in” thing. That’s what I would do at least.
Here are the things to look for the rest of the weekend:
- Texas is probably cooked. New Mexico and San Diego State play each other tonight. The winner is going to bump Texas out of the field. The only way I see the Longhorns getting in is if VCU loses today and there are no other bids stolen, and even that would be far from a sure thing.
- SMU is hanging by a thread. If Oklahoma beats Arkansas tonight, the Sooners will replace the Mustangs in the field.
- VCU still has the opportunity for a bad loss that would put them in jeopardy. They play Duquesne tonight and then the winner of St. Joe’s-Davidson tomorrow. If they lose either of those, they could be in trouble.
- Other potential bid stealers: Nevada in the Mountain West, Ole Miss in the SEC, Seton Hall and Georgetown in the Big East, anybody other than St. Louis or VCU in the Atlantic 10.