Elaborating on my post from yesterday, I thought it might be interesting to take a more in depth look at each team’s best and worst ACC tournament seed scenarios.
Miami (14-4; vs. FSU, vs. Pitt remaining)
Best possible seed: 1
Worst possible seed: 4
Miami controls its own destiny. If they beat Pitt, they are #1, unless they lose at home to FSU AND Virginia wins out. Even if they lose to Pitt, they can still be #1 with a little help. I can find one scenario where they fall to #4, although the tiebreakers are complicated as heck. But if Miami, Clemson, Pitt, and Duke all finish tied for second at 14-6 behind Virginia, I believe the Hurricanes would get the 4.
Pitt (13-4; vs. Syracuse, at ND, at Miami remaining)
Best possible seed: 1
Worst possible seed: 6
Pitt also controls its destiny. Win out, and the Panthers are the 1 seed. The already have a win over Miami and a win over Virginia, so tiebreaker scenarios are kind to them. But winning out means winning at Miami – a long shot. Pitt’s low end scenario is a 5th place tie at 13-7 with NC State or Duke. The Panthers would lose a tie with Duke, so they would wind up as the 6 seed if they lose out, NC State wins out, and Duke beats UNC and Virginia Tech.
Virginia (13-4; at UNC, vs. Clemson, vs. Louisville remaining)
Best possible seed: 1
Worst possible seed: 5
Virginia lost to Miami and Pitt, so in general, they don’t do well in top end tiebreaker scenarios. The only way they get the 1 seed is to be in first place outright. Which probably means winning out and having Pitt beat Miami but lose one of their other two games. The worst the Cavaliers could do is a 5th-place tie with either Duke or NC State at 13-7. Either way, UVa would win that tie and be the 5 seed.
Clemson (12-5; at NC State, at Virginia, vs. ND remaining)
Best possible seed: 1
Worst possible seed: 8
Clemson has a wide range of possible seeds. Their 1 seed scenarios involve them winning out and Miami losing out, so I wouldn’t hold my breath. But the Tigers already have a win over Pitt, and they play Virginia on Tuesday. If they win that one, then they have some tiebreaker advantages and a 2 seed is very much in play if they can win out. On the other hand, if the Tigers lose out, it’s possible they could finish in a 3-way tie for 6th at 12-8 with UNC and Wake, both of whom beat them earlier in the season, in which case Clemson would get the 8.
NC State (12-6; vs. Clemson, at Duke remaining)
Best possible seed: 2
Worst possible seed: 8
The Wolfpack don’t fare well in top end tiebreaker scenarios due to their losses to Pitt and Virginia. They split with Miami and are hoping for a split with Clemson. The only scenario I can find where they get the 2 seed is if they finish in a second place tie at 14-6 with Clemson, behind Miami. This would require that both Virginia and Pitt lose out, which isn’t going to happen. The worst scenario for the Wolfpack is a 3-way tie for 6th at 12-8 with UNC and Syracuse. If that happens, the Wolfpack will be the 8.
Duke (11-6; vs. Virginia Tech, vs. NC State, at UNC remaining)
Best possible seed: 2
Worst possible seed: 9
Duke can get the 2 seed if they win out and Miami loses out and Virginia loses out. And maybe some other stuff. But it can happen. Duke drops all the way down to 9 if they lose out and finish tied for 8th with Wake at 11-9 (which implies that UNC and Syracuse both win out), and Clemson finishes ahead of Miami and Pitt. Just trust me.
UNC (9-8; vs. Virginia, at FSU, vs. Duke remaining)
Best possible seed: 5
Worst possible seed: 11
The Tar Heels get the 5 if they win out, Clemson loses out, and Duke finishes no better than 12-8. Substitute NC State for Clemson in the previous sentence, and it holds, except that tiebreaker scenario is more complicated and would also require that Clemson finish ahead of Miami. Again, trust me. The worst scenario for the Tar Heels would be if they lose out and finish in a tie with either Virginia Tech or FSU for 10th place at 9-11. The Tar Heels would lose the tiebreaker and get the 11 seed.
Wake (9-8; vs. Notre Dame, vs. BC, at Syracuse remaining)
Best possible seed: 5
Worst possible seed: 10
Really unfortunate news about Damari Monsanto. Wake does have a favorable schedule remaining though, and if they can win out, they would get the 5 seed if Clemson loses out and Duke is no better than 12-8. Wake’s worst possible finish is a 10th place tie with either FSU or Virginia Tech at 9-11; the Deacons have the tiebreaker over both, so they can’t be lower than 10th.
Syracuse (9-8; at Pitt, vs. GT, vs. Wake remaining)
Best possible seed: 6
Worst possible seed: 11
If Syracuse can win out, they could get the 6 if either NC State or Duke loses out. They might need UNC to lose a game too, depending on various tiebreaker scenarios. They could finish as low as 11 if they lose out and finish tied for 10th at 9-11 with Virginia Tech. The Orange split their 2 games with the Hokies this year, so that tiebreaker would depend on other things.
Boston College (8-10; at Wake, vs. GT remaining)
Best possible seed: 8
Worst possible seed: 11
The Eagles’ scenarios are comparatively clear. They are the 8 seed if they win out, UNC loses out, and either Wake or Syracuse loses out. They lose all tiebreaker scenarios with UNC, Wake, and Syracuse. If BC finishes 8-12, they could finish in a tie for 11th with either FSU or Virginia Tech, both of whom they own the tiebreaker advantage over.
Virginia Tech (6-11; at Duke, at Louisville, vs. FSU remaining)
Best possible seed: 8
Worst possible seed: 13
The Hokies hope to get themselves into a 3-way tie for 8th with UNC and Syracuse at 9-11. In that case, they would get the 8 seed. They could go as low as 13 if they lose out and Georgia Tech wins out.
Florida State (6-11; at Miami, vs. UNC, at Va Tech remaining)
Best possible seed: 8
Worst possible seed: 12
Like Virginia Tech, FSU’s best scenario is to win out and have UNC and Syracuse lose out. In that case, FSU would “probably” get the tiebreaker because of their win over Pitt. The Seminoles can’t fall any farther than where they are right now – 12th.
Georgia Tech (3-14; vs. Louisville, at Syracuse, at BC remaining)
Best possible seed: 12
Worst possible seed: 15
The Jackets will be the 12 if they win out and Virginia Tech loses out. They’ll be the 15 if they finish below Notre Dame and Louisville.
Notre Dame (2-15; at Wake, vs. Pitt, at Clemson remaining)
Best possible seed: 13
Worst possible seed: 15
The Irish sure look like they’re headed for a 2-18 ACC finish. If they can jump over Georgia Tech, they’re the 13; if they drop below Louisville, they’re the 15. They have the tiebreaker over Louisville. They split with Georgia Tech, so that’s a little dicier.
Louisville (2-15; at GT, vs. Va Tech, at Virginia remaining)
Best possible seed: 13
Worst possible seed: 15
The Cardinals have shown some growth down the stretch here. Let’s see if they can get out of the cellar.