As we approach the last weekend of the college football regular season, things are becoming clearer. Louisville’s win over Miami clinched the Cardinals’ spot alongside Florida State in the ACC Championship game. Georgia Tech became the ninth ACC team to become bowl-eligible, joining Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Boston College, and Miami. NC State and Clemson won to solidify their positions in the upper tier of ACC bowl teams as Duke, BC, and Miami all lost. Syracuse and Virginia Tech failed to get that sixth win but each can still qualify for a bowl game with a win this weekend.
College Football Playoff outlook
Not much changed this past weekend. All of the zero and one-loss teams won. The most significant event was probably the injury to Jordan Travis. I don’t think this will impact how the selection committee views the Seminoles – at least it shouldn’t – but it does potentially affect their prospects for winning their last two games, which is a must if they want to make the CFP.
I am reasonably confident in saying that any undefeated team is going to make it. Right now, there are five: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, FSU, and Washington. Ohio State and Michigan play on Saturday, so there will be at most four. Some are arguing that a one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, or Michigan would be more deserving than an undefeated FSU or Washington. While that argument is not without merit, ultimately I don’t see the committee leaving out an undefeated conference champion FSU or Washington.
Here is a team-by-team rundown:
- Georgia (11-0). The Bulldogs are in with a win over Alabama. They can still make it with a loss if any of the other undefeated teams loses. A fascinating chaos scenario would be if Alabama loses to Auburn but beats Georgia. In this scenario, it’s possible that the SEC would have no one in the playoff although I suspect Georgia would make it.
- Ohio State (11-0). Should be safe with a win over Michigan. Could still get in with one loss if FSU or Washington loses.
- Michigan (11-0). Should be safe with a win over Ohio State. Could still get in with one loss if FSU or Washington loses.
- FSU (11-0). Should be safe with wins over Florida and Louisville. Highly unlikely to get in with a loss.
- Washington (11-0). Should be safe with wins over Washington State and in the Pac-12 championship. Highly unlikely to get in with a loss.
- Oregon (10-1). It gets interesting here. Obviously they have to beat Oregon State and win the Pac-12 championship. If that happens, does one-loss Oregon get in over the loser of Ohio State-Michigan? I say yes. Also, Alabama beating Georgia is bad for them.
- Texas (10-1). Similar situation to Oregon, but I am less certain that the Longhorns would get in over one loss Ohio State/Michigan. If Washington and Oregon both win this weekend, their path gets harder to see.
- Alabama (10-1). If they beat Auburn and Georgia, I predict they’re going to jump over the other one-loss teams and be in the playoff.
- Louisville (10-1). First, they have to win out. Then they need losses by Washington, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama.
Maximum Chaos Scenario
For the anarchists out there, maximum chaos would be:
- Oregon wins the Pac-12
- Texas wins the Big 12
- Alabama wins the SEC
- Louisville wins the ACC
- Iowa beats Ohio St/Michigan winner in the Big Ten championship
In this scenario, all nine teams above would have one loss. None of those individual outcomes is farfetched except for Iowa beating Ohio St/Michigan.
ACC Bowl Game Outlook
What’s interesting here is that the teams have sorted themselves into tiers that align well with the ACC bowl game tiers.
| Tier | Teams | Bowls |
| 0 | Florida State, Louisville | CFP, Orange |
| 1 | NC State, UNC, Clemson, Notre Dame | ReliaQuest (formerly Outback), Gator, Holiday, Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It) |
| 2 | Duke, BC, Miami, Georgia Tech, and possibly Virginia Tech and/or Syracuse | Pinstripe, Fenway, Military, Duke’s Mayo, Sun |
First I will outline the best guesses for where each team goes within each tier. Then I will describe two scenarios that could result in a team getting bumped down a tier.
Within Tier 1, the ReliaQuest will get the first pick, and it seems likely that they will pick Notre Dame. Clemson seems like a good fit for the Holiday Bowl for several reasons: 1) Carolina went to the Holiday last year; 2) NC State still has a bad taste in its mouth from the 2021 debacle with the cancelled game against UCLA; and 3) a Clemson – Oregon State matchup would have an interesting storyline with DJ Uiagalelei facing his former team. NC State has been to the Gator Bowl fairly recently, so most likely Carolina would go there, which would leave the Pop Tarts Bowl in Orlando for NC State.
Within Tier 2, BC seems like an obvious choice for the Fenway Bowl. The other spots may depend on whether Virginia Tech and Syracuse qualify. Here are my best guesses:
- Neither VT nor Syracuse qualifies: Duke goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Ga Tech goes to Military
- VT qualifies but Syracuse does not: VT goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Ga Tech goes to Military, Duke goes to Pinstripe
- Syracuse qualifies but VT does not: Duke goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Syracuse goes to Military, Ga Tech goes to Pinstripe
- Both VT and Syracuse qualify: VT goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Ga Tech goes to Military, Duke goes to Pinstripe, Syracuse goes to some other bowl (Birmingham, or First Responder, or something)
I could be wrong about Virginia Tech grabbing the Duke’s Mayo slot from Duke. It’s a hunch.
Now for the complications. There are two. First, if the ACC champion doesn’t make the CFP, then they wind up in the Orange Bowl. Which means the runner up, unless they are selected as an at-large team for a New Year’s Six Bowl, gets bumped down to Tier 1. The cascading effect of that is that one of the Tier 1 teams would get bumped to Tier 2. Who would it be? I think it depends on the result of this week’s games. If Clemson loses, I think it would be them; if Clemson wins, I think it would be the loser of the State-Carolina game.
The other complication has to do with the ReliaQuest Bowl. It’s complicated, but the ACC gets a spot in the ReliaQuest only if the Big Ten gets a spot in the Orange Bowl opposite the ACC. That Orange Bowl slot can go to an SEC team or a Big Ten team. If the Orange Bowl picks an SEC team, then the Big Ten gets the ReliaQuest slot as a consolation prize. If the Orange Bowl picks a Big Ten team, then the ACC (or Notre Dame) gets the ReliaQuest slot.
Most of the experts are predicting that the Ohio State – Michigan loser will get the Orange Bowl slot, and therefore the ACC will get the ReliaQuest slot. I can think of two things that would mess that up. One, if Alabama beats Georgia, and Georgia doesn’t get into the playoff, then Georgia would probably go to the Orange Bowl. Two, if the Ohio State – Michigan loser gets into the playoff, then they obviously wouldn’t be available for the Orange. In that scenario, the Orange Bowl would likely take Alabama although Penn State and Ole Miss are possibilities as well.
Neither of these complications could happen, or one of them could happen, or both of them could happen. If both happen, then only one of NC State, Carolina, and Clemson would get a Tier 1 bowl slot. My guess is that it would be NC State if they win, Clemson if NC State loses and they win, and Carolina if they win and Clemson loses.