29. 2018 Virginia

Record: 31-3, 17-1 (1st place)
ACC Tournament: Won
NCAA Tournament: Lost in round of 64
Final AP Ranking: 1
All-ACC Players: Kyle Guy (1st), Devon Hall (2nd), Ty Jerome (3rd)
All-Americans: None

We may as well begin by acknowledging the elephant in the room. There is no consideration of 2018 Virginia that does not begin with their historic loss to UMBC. That is what most people will remember about this team: one game that overshadows everything else they accomplished. There has never been a game like that game, and perhaps there never will be. For a team like UMBC to score 53 points in the second half against the best defensive team in the country, in a game when they had everything to play for… I don’t typically look for psychological explanations for sporting events, but I don’t think this is explainable otherwise.

Even the psychological explanation is problematic. Typically when I think of sports psychology in basketball, I think of shooting under pressure. Perhaps we can all understand a poor shooting performance in a high pressure situation. But how do you explain a complete defensive breakdown in a high pressure situation? And don’t tell me it’s because De’Andre Hunter was out. I know he was an excellent player, and it hurt them, but he played only 20 minutes per game that year. They were still playing great defense when he wasn’t on the floor.

I can’t explain that game. But I do know that before that game, Virginia went 31-2. I know they played 21 games against ACC competition and won 20 of them. That record is simply too good to leave off this list.

There’s been a lot said over the years regarding Virginia’s style of play and whether it hurts them in March. It’s not just Virginia; a team’s style of play and how that affects their postseason prospects is a frequent topic of debate for sports pundits. You’ll notice that no two authorities ever seem to agree in their assessment of what particular style of play leads to postseason success. Defense wins championships, offense wins championships, the Yankees are too reliant on the home run, etc. These debates tend to be long on unsubstantiated assertions and conjecture, and short on facts.

In general, I think this kind of argument is a lot of hooey. The game is the game, and it doesn’t suddenly become a different game after the regular season. There is no particular style of play that works in the postseason.

However, there is some evidence that balanced teams tend to overperform in the postseason, and by extension, unbalanced teams tend to underperform. Balanced in this context means balanced between offense and defense. 2018 Virginia was relatively unbalanced. Kenpom had them ranked #1 in defensive efficiency and #30 in offensive efficiency.

So I don’t buy that Virginia’s style “doesn’t work in the postseason”. They won the national championship the next year with the exact same style. The difference is, the 2019 team was just better offensively and therefore was better balanced. Balanced teams are harder to game plan for, better able to compensate when something isn’t working, and therefore harder to upset.