ACC Tournament Outlook

North Carolina

• Current Record: 14-3
• Remaining Games: vs. NC State, vs. Notre Dame, at Duke
• Highest Possible Finish: 1
• Lowest Possible Finish: It is possible for the Tar Heels to finish in a 3-way tie for first with Duke and Virginia, or a two-way tie for second with Virginia. It appears to me that UNC has the tiebreakers, so I don’t think they can be seeded lower than #2.
• Bye chances: Clinched the double bye.

Finish Probabilities:

• 1 (alone) – 59%
• 1 (tie) – 35%
• 2 (alone) – 6%
• 2 (tie) – < 1%

Duke

• Current Record: 12-4
• Remaining Games: vs. Louisville, vs. Virginia, at NC State, vs. UNC
• Highest Possible Finish: 1
• Lowest Possible Finish: 4 (tie)
• Bye chances: Need one more win to clinch the double bye.

Finish Probabilities:

• 1 (alone) – 6%
• 1 (tie) – 35%
• 2 (alone) – 54%
• 2 (tie) – 4%
• 3 (alone) – < 1%
• 3 (tie) – < 1%
• 4 (alone) – < 1%
• 4 (tie) – < 1%

Virginia

• Current Record: 11-6
• Remaining Games: at BC, at Duke, vs. Georgia Tech
• Highest Possible Finish: 1 (tie)
• Lowest Possible Finish: 7 (tie)
• Bye chances: Clinched a single bye. Work to do to secure a double bye.

Finish Probabilities:

• 1 (tie) – < 1%
• 2 (alone) – 1%
• 2 (tie) – 3%
• 3 (alone) – < 20%
• 3 (tie) – < 42%
• 4 (alone) – < 6%
• 4 (tie) – < 21%
• 5 (alone) – <1%
• 5 (tie) – 5%
• 6 (alone) – < 1%
• 6 (tie) – 2%
• 7 (alone) – < 1%
• 7 (tie) – < 1%

Wake Forest

• Current Record: 10-7
• Remaining Games: at Virginia Tech, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Clemson
• Highest Possible Finish: 2 (tie)
• Lowest Possible Finish: 9 (tie)
• Bye chances: I’m not 100% sure, but I think Wake has clinched a single bye. While they can finish tied for 9th, I think they have the tiebreakers. Lots of work to do to secure a double bye.

Finish Probabilities:

• 2 (tie) – < 1%
• 3 (alone) – 17%
• 3 (tie) – 32%
• 4 (alone) – 5%
• 4 (tie) – 21%
• 5 (alone) – 3%
• 5 (tie) – 12%
• 6 (alone) – 1%
• 6 (tie) – 6%
• 7 (alone or tie) – 1%
• 8 (alone or tie) – < 1%
• 9 (alone or tie) – < 1%

Clemson

• Current Record: 10-7
• Remaining Games: at Notre Dame, vs. Syracuse, at Wake
• Highest Possible Finish: 2 (tie)
• Lowest Possible Finish: 9 (tie)
• Bye chances: Need a win or Virginia Tech loss to clinch single bye. Lots of work to do to secure the double bye.

Finish Probabilities:

• 2 (tie) – < 1%
• 3 (alone) – 13%
• 3 (tie) – 26%
• 4 (alone) – 4%
• 4 (tie) – 22%
• 5 (alone) – 5%
• 5 (tie) – 14%
• 6 (alone) – 1%
• 6 (tie) – 9%
• 7 (alone or tie) – 4%
• 8 (alone or tie) – 1%
• 9 (alone or tie) – < 1%

Syracuse

• Current Record: 10-8
• Remaining Games: at Louisville, at Clemson
• Highest Possible Finish: 3
• Lowest Possible Finish: 9 (tie)
• Bye chances: I’m not 100% sure, but I think the Orange has clinched a single bye. It appears to me that they have the tiebreakers over the teams they could finish tied for 9th with.

Finish Probabilities:

• 3 (alone) – < 1%
• 3 (tie) – 6%
• 4 (alone) – < 1%
• 4 (tie) – 8%
• 5 (alone) – 1%
• 5 (tie) – 19%
• 6 (alone) – 3%
• 6 (tie) – 29%
• 7 (alone) – 8%
• 7 (tie) – 17%
• 8 (alone) – 3%
• 8 (tie) – 5%
• 9 (alone or tie) – < 1%

Pitt

• Current Record: 9-8
• Remaining Games: at BC, vs. FSU, vs. NC State
• Highest Possible Finish: 3
• Lowest Possible Finish: 11
• Bye chances: Anything is possible. Double bye, single bye, no bye at all.

Finish Probabilities:

• 3 (alone or tie) – 7%
• 4 (alone or tie) – 14%
• 5 (alone or tie) – 22%
• 6 (alone or tie) – 26%
• 7 (alone or tie) – 12%
• 8 (alone or tie) – 13%
• 9 (alone or tie) – 5%
• 10 (alone or tie) – 2%
• 11 (alone or tie) – < 1%

NC State

• Current Record: 9-8
• Remaining Games: at UNC, vs. Duke, at Pitt
• Highest Possible Finish: 3
• Lowest Possible Finish: 11
• Bye chances: Anything is possible. Three wins gives them a slim chance for a double bye; zero wins and they could very well be playing on Tuesday. One win and a Virginia Tech loss should be enough to avoid Tuesday.

Finish Probabilities:

• 3 (alone or tie) – < 1%
• 4 (alone or tie) – 1%
• 5 (alone or tie) – 4%
• 6 (alone or tie) – 8%
• 7 (alone or tie) – 13%
• 8 (alone or tie) – 25%
• 9 (alone or tie) – 35%
• 10 (alone or tie) – 12%
• 11 (alone or tie) – 1%

Florida State

• Current Record: 9-8
• Remaining Games: at GT, at Pitt, vs. Miami
• Highest Possible Finish: 3
• Lowest Possible Finish: 11
• Bye chances: Anything is possible. Double bye, single bye, no bye at all.

Finish Probabilities:

• 3 (alone or tie) – 3%
• 4 (alone or tie) – 7%
• 5 (alone or tie) – 15%
• 6 (alone or tie) – 22%
• 7 (alone or tie) – 18%
• 8 (alone or tie) – 25%
• 9 (alone or tie) – 7%
• 10 (alone or tie) – 2%
• 11 (alone or tie) – < 1%

Virginia Tech

• Current Record: 7-10
• Remaining Games: vs. Wake Forest, at Louisville, vs. Notre Dame
• Highest Possible Finish: 5 (tie)
• Lowest Possible Finish: 13
• Bye chances: Double bye is out of reach. Work to do to secure single bye.

Finish Probabilities:

• 5 (tie) – < 1%
• 6 (tie) – 1%
• 7 (alone or tie) – 6%
• 8 (alone or tie) – 16%
• 9 (alone or tie) – 30%
• 10 (alone or tie) – 37%
• 11 (alone or tie) – 10%
• 12 (alone or tie) – 1%
• 13 (alone or tie) – < 1%

Boston College

• Current Record: 6-10
• Remaining Games: vs. Virginia, vs. Pitt, at Miami, at Louisville
• Highest Possible Finish: 5 (tie)
• Lowest Possible Finish: 15
• Bye chances: Double bye is out of reach. Work to do to secure single bye.

Finish Probabilities:

• 5 (tie) – < 1%
• 6 (tie) – < 1%
• 7 (tie) – 2%
• 8 (alone or tie) – 5%
• 9 (alone or tie) – 12%
• 10 (alone or tie) – 22%
• 11 (alone or tie) – 46%
• 12 (alone or tie) – 9%
• 13 (alone or tie) – 2%
• 14 (alone or tie) – < 1%
• 15 (alone) – < 1%

Notre Dame

• Current Record: 6-11
• Remaining Games: vs. Clemson, at UNC, at Virginia Tech
• Highest Possible Finish: 8 (tie)
• Lowest Possible Finish: 15
• Bye chances: Clinging to a slim chance to get a single bye.

Finish Probabilities:

• 8 (tie) – < 1%
• 9 (tie) – < 1%
• 10 (alone or tie) – 3%
• 11 (alone or tie) – 11%
• 12 (alone or tie) – 40%
• 13 (alone or tie) – 40%
• 14 (alone or tie) – < 5%
• 15 (alone) – < 1%

Miami

• Current Record: 6-12
• Remaining Games: vs. BC, at FSU
• Highest Possible Finish: 10
• Lowest Possible Finish: 15
• Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Finish Probabilities:

• 10 (alone or tie) – 4%
• 11 (alone or tie) – 29%
• 12 (alone or tie) – 50%
• 13 (alone or tie) – 14%
• 14 (alone or tie) – 2%
• 15 (alone) – < 1%

Georgia Tech

• Current Record: 5-12
• Remaining Games: vs. FSU, at Wake, at Virginia
• Highest Possible Finish: 10
• Lowest Possible Finish: 15
• Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Finish Probabilities:

• 10 (alone or tie) – < 1%
• 11 (alone or tie) – 3%
• 12 (alone or tie) – 16%
• 13 (alone or tie) – 26%
• 14 (alone or tie) – 55%
• 15 (alone) – 1%

Louisville

• Current Record: 3-13
• Remaining Games: at Duke, vs. Syracuse, vs. Virginia Tech, vs. BC
• Highest Possible Finish: 10 (tie)
• Lowest Possible Finish: 15
• Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Finish Probabilities:

• 10 (tie) – < 1%
• 11 (tie) – < 1%
• 12 (alone or tie) – 1%
• 13 (alone or tie) – 1%
• 14 (alone or tie) – 8%
• 15 (alone) – 90%