Time to dust off the bracketology spreadsheets. I took last year off but I am back and ready for another run. Let’s get right to it.
Through games of Sunday, March 1. Automatic bids in bold:
- Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn
- Florida, Houston, Illinois, Michigan State
- Iowa State, Nebraska, Purdue, Gonzaga
- Alabama, Virginia, Kansas, Texas Tech
- Vanderbilt, Tennessee, St. John’s, UNC
- Arkansas, Louisville, Wisconsin, Utah State
- St. Mary’s, St. Louis, BYU, Kentucky
- Clemson, Iowa, Miami FL, Villanova
- Georgia, NC State, Texas, Texas A&M
- Central Florida, Missouri, UCLA, SMU
- Ohio State, Santa Clara, New Mexico, Auburn, TCU, South Florida
- Belmont, Miami OH, McNeese State, High Point
- Yale, Liberty, Utah Valley, UNCW
- UC Irvine, St. Thomas, Navy, Troy
- Wright State, Austin Peay, East Tennessee State, Montana State
- Merrimack, UMBC, LIU, Howard, Tennessee State, Bethune Cookman
Last Four Byes: Missouri, UCLA, SMU, Ohio State
Last Four In: Santa Clara, New Mexico, Auburn, TCU
First Four Out: Indiana, San Diego State, VCU, Cincinnati
Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Tulsa
League By League
ACC
Locks (7): Duke, Virginia, UNC, Louisville, Clemson, Miami, NC State. I’m calling the Wolfpack a lock, but if they lose their last two games, things will get uncomfortable.
In for Now (1): SMU. The Mustangs need to win at least one of their two remaining games against Miami and FSU. Winning both would probably move them to a lock.
Work to Do (1): Virginia Tech. The Hokies need to beat Virginia in the last game of the season to give themselves a fighting chance at an at-large bid.
Big 10
Locks (7): Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa
In for Now (1): UCLA. I think the Bruins will get in if they beat either Nebraska or USC. If they lose both, they’re in trouble.
Work to Do (3): Ohio State, Indiana, USC. Ohio State and Indiana play each other in the last game of the season. That could be an elimination game. USC is definitely out right now. They have to win their last two games and probably make some noise in the Big 10 Tourney.
Big 12
Locks (6): Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU
In for Now (1): UCF. The Knights should be OK as long as they don’t lose on Tuesday to Oklahoma State.
Work to Do (4): TCU, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Baylor. TCU is really close to the cut line right now. A win at Texas Tech would certainly do it; otherwise they probably have to beat Cincinnati in their last game. The Bearcats have BYU and TCU and probably need a sweep, although even a split would keep them interesting. West Virginia is on the outside looking in right now and must win their last two and make some noise in the Big 12 Tourney. As for Baylor – win at Houston on Wednesday and we’ll talk.
Big East
Locks (3): UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
Work to Do (1): Seton Hall. The Pirates have a tricky Quad 2 game at Xavier, then close with a home tilt against St. John’s. They need to win both.
SEC
Locks (7): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia
In for Now (2): Texas, Texas A&M. Each needs to win one of their last two to feel secure.
Work to Do (2): Missouri, Auburn. Missouri has two Quad 1 games left at Oklahoma and vs. Arkansas. Two wins and they’re in, one win and they’ll be sweating it, two losses and they’re in trouble. Auburn has been taking on serious water. The LSU game on Tuesday is a must win, and they’ll need more than that to feel secure on Selection Sunday.
West Coast
Locks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Work to Do (1): Santa Clara. Herb Sendek’s crew has finished their regular season. They need to beat St. Mary’s in the WCC Tournament to feel secure; otherwise they’ll be sweating on Selection Sunday.
Mountain West
Locks (1): Utah State
Work to Do (2): New Mexico, San Diego State. Both of these teams are very close to the cut line. The Lobos have an opportunity to cement a birth with their finale at Utah State. The Aztecs need a win at Boise on Tuesday to have a chance.
Atlantic 10
Locks (1): St. Louis
Work to Do (1): VCU. If the Rams win their last two regular season games, they will be very close to the cut line. It might be enough.
All other leagues are one-bid leagues.