Moving off the bubble list yesterday was NC State, who moved to a Lock with their win over Virginia Tech. Although ironically, NC State beat the Hokies so badly that they knocked them out of the top 75 in the NET – which means the Wolfpack’s win in Blacksburg is no longer a Quad 1. But it doesn’t matter. They’re in.
Bubble Team Ranking:
In 6 – Utah State
In 5 – Oklahoma State
In 4 – Nevada
In 3 – Penn State
In 2 – Mississippi State
In 1 – Pitt
Out 1 – Rutgers
Out 2 – Arizona State
Out 3 – North Carolina
Out 4 – Wisconsin
Out 5 – Oregon
Out 6 – Michigan
Out 7 – Clemson
Commentary on today’s games:
Utah State – next game today vs. New Mexico (NET 50)
- With a win – this is an interesting one, because right now New Mexico is 50 in the NET, which is the cutoff for a Quad 1 win on a neutral court. But beating them may knock them down in the NET, making it a Quad 2. The vagaries of the NET. I’m not quite ready to call the Aggies a Lock with a win here, but they’re headed in that direction.
- With a loss – by the same logic, if New Mexico wins, they probably will move up in the NET and this becomes a Quad 1 loss for Utah State. I think they still have a chance and it will depend on what the other teams do.
Oklahoma State – next game today vs. Texas (NET 9)
- With a win – OSU becomes a lock.
- With a loss – OSU finishes their regular season at 18-15. Losing to Texas on a neutral court doesn’t really hurt you, but the Cowboys are on thin ice as it is. They will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Nevada – next game today vs. San Jose State (NET 96)
- With a win – this is a Quad 2, just barely. It helps marginally, I guess, but it’s really more about avoiding the loss.
- With a loss – Nevada is in trouble if they lose this game. They too will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Penn State – next game today vs. Illinois (NET 33)
- With a win – this is a solid Quad 1 opponent. I can’t say it makes them a Lock, but they would go to the head of the bubble pack, and the other teams would have to do some extraordinary things to keep the Nittany Lions out.
- With a loss – a Quad 1 loss doesn’t really hurt their resume, but they’re on thin ice as it is. Probably no better than 50-50 they get in if they lose today.
Mississippi State – next game today vs. Florida (NET 59)
- With a win – Quad 2 opponent. Every little bit helps, but certainly doesn’t make them a Lock.
- With a loss – I don’t like their chances. It would depend on what other teams do.
Pitt – next game today vs. Duke (NET 25)
- With a win – I’m not sure my model would agree, but my gut says Pitt is a Lock if they win. Duke is really playing well right now. A neutral court win over the Blue Devils is the final validation Pitt needs.
- With a loss – I really don’t know. I don’t think they’ll make it, but other Bracketologists have them higher for whatever reason. They certainly look like a tournament team with the “eye test”, but I’m not sure the committee cares.
Rutgers – next game today vs. Michigan (NET 54)
- With a win – it’s a Quad 2, but because Michigan is a fellow bubble team, this win has a little more cachet than, say, Nevada beating San Jose State. But it certainly doesn’t make Rutgers a lock.
- With a loss – I don’t think they’re going to make it. I can’t rule it out until I see what everyone else does.
Arizona State – next game today vs. USC (NET 48)
- With a win – it’s a Quad 1 win for now, but similar to the Utah State comment, the act of beating USC may knock them down enough in the NET so that it’s not a Quad 1 anymore. Beat them, but don’t beat them badly, I guess. Regardless, it’s a really good win and would move Arizona State toward the head of this pack of teams right around the cut line.
- With a loss – similar to Rutgers, I don’t think they’ll make it, but with their four Quad 1 wins, it can’t be ruled out.
North Carolina – next game today vs. Virginia (NET 30)
- With a win – the Tar Heels move to a 60% chance to make it with a win today.
- With a loss – they’re done.
Wisconsin (regular season over)
- The Badgers have no games left to improve their standing. Could they possibly make it? I can’t completely remove a team with six Quad 1 wins. But I would rate their chances at 10% or less.
Oregon – next game today vs. Washington State (NET 69)
- With a win – a win doesn’t mean much. Oregon has to do a lot more than beat Washington State if they’re going to make it.
- With a loss – they’re done.
Michigan – next game today vs. Rutgers (NET 43)
- With a win – it’s a solid Quad 1 win and will move the Wolverines up considerably in the pecking order, but their situation would still be precarious.
- With a loss – they’re done.
Clemson – next game today vs. NC State (NET 37)
- With a win – would be a solid Quad 1 for the Tigers, their third win over NC State, and would help cancel out the Tigers’ bad losses. But it seems unlikely that this win alone will be enough to get the Tigers in.
- With a loss – they’re done.