The quality of play in college basketball has declined over the past 25 years or so. I think that conclusion is inevitable for anyone who thinks about it for a few minutes. When most of the top 19, 20, and 21 year olds are in the NBA, how could it be otherwise?
But how much has it declined? It’s impossible to answer this precisely, but I thought of one fun way to think about it. What if we had preserved the conditions that obtained until the mid-1970s, which is to say, everyone played in college, and nobody left early. How would that have affected the All-American teams over the years?
So I’ve been digging through the Consensus First and Second Team All-American rosters since about 1975, looking at the best players who were college age but already in the NBA, and trying to figure out who would have made All-American had they still been in college, and which of the guys who made the actual team would have been displaced.
One of the things I hope to gain from this is to get an idea of how much these honors have been cheapened over the years. For example, Jared Sullinger and Danny Manning both made First Team All-American twice. Does that make Sullinger as good as Manning? Manning was competing against the best players of his age group, save two or three. By the time Sullinger came along, there were probably 60 guys who were college age who weren’t there anymore. Would Sullinger still have been an All-American if all those guys had been in college? That’s what I’m trying to determine.
Of course this is a speculative exercise. Nobody really knows how good, say, Moses Malone would have been in college. And since nobody knows, I figure my opinion is as good as anybody else’s. In a few cases, it’s easy. If a guy made First Team as a junior and then turned pro (Shaquille O’Neal), it seems a safe bet that he would have made it as a senior. And then there are the no-brainers. You think LeBron and Kobe would have been All-Americans? Probably a safe bet.
But in a lot of cases, it requires looking at the college and NBA performance of the players in question, and making a judgment call, which I did as best I could. I’ll offer some explanation of my decisions as we go along. Which you probably won’t agree with, and isn’t that the fun of these “what if?” games?
Without further ado, let’s get started.
1974-75
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Adrian Dantley | Adrian Dantley | John Lucas | Moses Malone |
| Scott May | Scott May |
| Dave Meyers | Dave Meyers |
| David Thompson | David Thompson |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Luther Burden | Luther Burden |
| Leon Douglas | Leon Douglas |
| Kevin Grevey | Kevin Grevey |
| Ron Lee | Ron Lee |
| Gus Williams | John Lucas |
Moses Malone got it all started. He was an NBA All-Star as a rookie in 1975, so I’m going to guess he would have been an All-American. John Lucas or Scott May are the most likely to have been pushed down; I’m going with Lucas.
1975-76
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Kent Benson | Kent Benson |
| Adrian Dantley | Adrian Dantley |
| John Lucas | Moses Malone |
| Scott May | Scott May |
| Richard Washington | Richard Washington |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Phil Ford | Phil Ford |
| Bernard King | Bernard King |
| Mitch Kupchak | Mitch Kupchak |
| Phil Sellers | Phil Sellers |
| Earl Tatum | John Lucas |
Sorry John.
1976-77
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Kent Benson | Kent Benson |
| Otis Birdsong | Adrian Dantley |
| Phil Ford | Phil Ford |
| Rickey Green | Rickey Green |
| Marques Johnson | Richard Washington |
| Bernard King | Moses Malone |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Greg Ballard | Otis Birdsong |
| Bill Cartwright | Bill Cartwright |
| Rod Griffin | Marques Johnson |
| Ernie Grunfeld | Ernie Grunfeld |
| Phil Hubbard | Phil Hubbard |
| Butch Lee | Bernard King |
| Mychal Thompson | Mychal Thompson |
Dantley and Washington were first teamers the year before, so they have to be on the list. And Moses is still around. It’s hard to say who would have been displaced, but I’m guessing that if Washington were still around, there wouldn’t have been enough shots for Marques Johnson. Birdsong and Bernard King are the other guys whose spots on First Team seem the most tenuous.
1977-78
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Larry Bird | Larry Bird |
| Phil Ford | Phil Ford |
| David Greenwood | David Greenwood |
| Butch Lee | Butch Lee |
| Mychal Thompson | Bernard King |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Ron Brewer | Ron Brewer |
| Jack Givens | Jack Givens |
| Rod Griffin | Mychal Thompson |
| Rick Robey | Rick Robey |
| Freeman Williams | Freeman Williams |
In this season, we have Bernard King, Darryl Dawkins, and Kenny Carr to worry about. I think Bernard is a safe bet for first team, and Mychal Thompson is the victim. Dawkins was never a great player, and wasn’t at his peak yet in 1978, so I’m leaving him off. Carr very well could have been an All-American had he returned, but I’m giving the other guys the benefit of the doubt.
1978-79
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Larry Bird | Larry Bird |
| Mike Gminski | Mike Gminski |
| David Greenwood | David Greenwood |
| Magic Johnson | Magic Johnson |
| Sidney Moncrief | Sidney Moncrief |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Bill Cartwright | Bill Cartwright |
| Calvin Natt | Calvin Natt |
| Mike O’Koren | Mike O’Koren |
| Jim Paxson | Jim Paxson |
| Jim Spanarkel | Jim Spanarkel |
| Kelly Tripucka | Kelly Tripucka |
| Sly Williams | Sly Williams |
No changes from the actual team.
1979-80
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Mark Aguirre | Mark Aguirre |
| Michael Brooks | Magic Johnson |
| Joe Barry Carroll | Joe Barry Carroll |
| Darrell Griffith | Darrell Griffith |
| Kyle Macy | Kyle Macy |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Mike Gminski | Mike Gminski |
| Albert King | Albert King |
| Mike O’Koren | Mike O’Koren |
| Kelvin Ransey | Michael Brooks |
| Sam Worthen | Sam Worthen |
Gotta make room for Magic Johnson. Sorry, Michael Brooks. Cliff Robinson is also worthy of consideration, but I’m not sure he was All-American caliber at age 19. Wait until next year.
1980-81
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Mark Aguirre | Mark Aguirre |
| Danny Ainge | Danny Ainge |
| Steve Johnson | Magic Johnson |
| Ralph Sampson | Ralph Sampson |
| Isiah Thomas | Isiah Thomas |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Sam Bowie | Sam Bowie |
| Jeff Lamp | Jeff Lamp |
| Rudy Macklin | Rudy Macklin |
| Kelly Tripucka | Kelly Tripucka |
| Danny Vranes | Cliff Robinson |
| Al Wood | Steve Johnson |
Same two guys, Magic and Cliff Robinson. Robinson averaged 19.5 PPG in the NBA, so I’m going to say he would be at least a second teamer. Steve Johnson gets knocked down to Second Team, and Danny Vranes and Al Wood are out.
1981-82
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Terry Cummings | Terry Cummings |
| Quintin Dailey | Quintin Dailey |
| Eric Floyd | Mark Aguirre |
| Ralph Sampson | Ralph Sampson |
| James Worthy | Isiah Thomas |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Dale Ellis | Dale Ellis |
| Kevin Magee | Kevin Magee |
| John Paxson | Eric Floyd |
| Sam Perkins | James Worthy |
| Paul Pressey | Paul Pressey |
Isiah Thomas and Mark Aguirre have to be on the list. It was hard to say who would be displaced, but it wouldn’t be Cummings or Sampson, so I picked Sleepy Floyd and James Worthy. The other player who came out early is Buck Williams. He’s a hard player to rank; he was a very good, but not All-American caliber player at Maryland. However he was outstanding in the NBA from the beginning. Perhaps he would’ve had a great senior season and been an All-American, but again I’m erring on the side of giving the benefit of the doubt to the guys who stayed.
1982-83
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Dale Ellis | Terry Cummings |
| Patrick Ewing | Dominique Wilkins |
| Michael Jordan | Michael Jordan |
| Keith Lee | James Worthy |
| Sam Perkins | Isiah Thomas |
| Ralph Sampson | Ralph Sampson |
| Wayman Tisdale | Quintin Dailey |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Clyde Drexler | Clyde Drexler |
| Sidney Green | Keith Lee |
| John Paxson | John Paxson |
| Steve Stipanovich | Dale Ellis |
| Jon Sundvold | Patrick Ewing |
| Darrell Walker | Sam Perkins |
| Randy Wittman | Wayman Tisdale |
Now it gets interesting. Early departures were Terry Cummings, Dominique Wilkins, James Worthy, Quintin Dailey, Clark Kellogg, LaSalle Thompson, and one more year of Isiah Thomas. Cummings, Worthy, Dailey, and Thomas are no-brainers. Considering how ‘Nique exploded onto the NBA scene, I think it’s fair to assume that he would have made the list. But the guys they are displacing are pretty darn good too. Tisdale and Ewing were sophomores, so they weren’t at their peaks yet. Sam Perkins gets the shaft again. I chose not to put Kellogg or Thompson on the second team, but both were excellent players and could have had an All-American caliber senior season.
1983-84
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Patrick Ewing | Patrick Ewing |
| Michael Jordan | Michael Jordan |
| Akeem Olajuwon | Clyde Drexler |
| Sam Perkins | Sam Perkins |
| Wayman Tisdale | Wayman Tisdale |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Michael Cage | Akeem Olajuwon |
| Devin Durrant | Ennis Whatley |
| Keith Lee | Keith Lee |
| Chris Mullin | Chris Mullin |
| Melvin Turpin | Darrell Walker |
| Leon Wood | Leon Wood |
In 1984 we have Clyde Drexler, Ennis Whatley, and Darrell Walker to deal with. Drexler and Walker made second team the year before, so they belong somewhere. I’m guessing that Clyde the Glide would have edged out his teammate Hakeem, and Darrell Walker bumps Melvin Turpin. Ennis Whatley was very close to making All-American the year before, so I’m going to give him the edge over Devin Durrant.
1984-85
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Johnny Dawkins | Michael Jordan |
| Patrick Ewing | Patrick Ewing |
| Keith Lee | Keith Lee |
| Xavier McDaniel | Akeem Olajuwon |
| Chris Mullin | Chris Mullin |
| Wayman Tisdale | Wayman Tisdale |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Len Bias | Johnny Dawkins |
| Jon Koncak | Alvin Robertson |
| Mark Price | Ennis Whatley |
| Kenny Walker | Charles Barkley |
| Dwayne Washington | Xavier McDaniel |
Jordan and Olajuwon have to be on First Team, obviously. Johnny Dawkins and Xavier McDaniel seem like the most likely candidates to get bumped. On Second Team, I’m going for a clean sweep, making room for Whatley again, Charles Barkley, and Alvin Robertson.
1985-86
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Steve Alford | Wayman Tisdale |
| Walter Berry | Walter Berry |
| Len Bias | Len Bias |
| Johnny Dawkins | Johnny Dawkins |
| Kenny Walker | Kenny Walker |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Dell Curry | Benoit Benjamin |
| Brad Daugherty | Brad Daugherty |
| Ron Harper | Ron Harper |
| Danny Manning | Danny Manning |
| David Robinson | Steve Alford |
| Scott Skiles | Scott Skiles |
Tisdale and Benoit Benjamin are the guys we have to make room for. I think Alford is the most likely candidate to get bumped. I’m guessing that Benjamin would have edged out Dell Curry.
1986-87
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Steve Alford | Steve Alford |
| Danny Manning | Danny Manning |
| David Robinson | David Robinson |
| Kenny Smith | Dwayne Washington |
| Reggie Williams | William Bedford |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Armon Gilliam | Armon Gilliam |
| Horace Grant | Kenny Smith |
| Dennis Hopson | Dennis Hopson |
| Mark Jackson | Mark Jackson |
| Ken Norman | Reggie Williams |
Early departures this year were Pearl Washington, William Bedford, and John “Hot Plate” Williams. Washington and Bedford were borderline All-American caliber players the year before, so I’m going to guess they would have made it. Hot Plate was good, but wait another year.
1987-88
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Sean Elliott | Sean Elliott |
| Gary Grant | Gary Grant |
| Hersey Hawkins | Hersey Hawkins |
| Danny Manning | Danny Manning |
| J.R. Reid | Derrick McKey |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Danny Ferry | Danny Ferry |
| Jerome Lane | John Williams |
| Mark Macon | Mark Macon |
| Mitch Richmond | J.R. Reid |
| Rony Seikaly | Rony Seikaly |
| Michael Smith | Michael Smith |
It’s only Derrick McKey and Hot Plate this time. McKey was excellent, borderline All-American the year before, so I’m giving him the nod over J.R. Reid. Williams gets the nod over Jerome Lane.
1988-89
First Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Sean Elliott | Sean Elliott |
| Pervis Ellison | Jerome Lane |
| Danny Ferry | Danny Ferry |
| Chris Jackson | Chris Jackson |
| Stacey King | Stacey King |
Second Team
| Actual | Modified |
|---|---|
| Mookie Blaylock | Mookie Blaylock |
| Sherman Douglas | Sherman Douglas |
| Jay Edwards | Jay Edwards |
| Todd Lichti | Rod Strickland |
| Glen Rice | Pervis Ellison |
| Lionel Simmons | Lionel Simmons |
Jerome Lane gets his revenge, sending “Never Nervous” Pervis Ellison down to Second Team. We also have Rod Strickland and Rex Chapman to deal with. Each of them has a case, but I’m going to wait a year on Chapman. Strickland gets the nod over Todd Lichti.
In my next post, I’ll deal with the 1990s.
OK Jake,couple of questions:
1) would you rather I post comments/questions here or just send an email?
2) was the genesis of this project our discussion of Nolan Smith not belonging in our ACC Top 50? Interested to see who is above him on the 2011 team.
3) The name above that jumped out to me is Benoit Benjamin. Is he on your modified 1986 team simply because he was named 3rd team by NABC in 1985? He was passed over that year by AP/UPI/USBWA. David Robinson was better than Benjamin in 1985, even though Robinson didn’t make any all-american teams. Even if Benjamin improved, I don’t think he knocks the Admiral off 2nd team. Alford takes Curry’s spot, leaving Robinson on 2nd team. My 2 cents.
Post them here. The genesis of this project did have to do with our Top 50 ACC players, which I am still working on. But not Nolan Smith specifically; more generally, I am trying to figure out, how much do I credit (or discredit) a modern player who is an All-American when comparing to a 1970s/80s/90s player? What’s the proper standard for an All-American? Do I give Jabari Parker the same amount of credit for making First Team in 2014 with Russ Smith, Nick Johnson, Doug McDermott, and Shabazz Napier as I give Larry Miller in 1968 for making First Team with Pete Maravich, Lew Alcindor, Elvin Hayes, and Wes Unseld? And I thought to myself, here’s a way to think about it. Not the only way, but a useful way. And then I started working on it, and it’s interesting in its own right.
Another thing I should say is that in figuring out how to re-rank players, I’m generally trying to reflect what I think would have happened based on what I can see in the voting record, rather than my personal opinion about what should have happened. You are correct in saying that I put Benjamin on the 1986 team primarily because he got a mention in 1985 and Robinson did not. Sure, he wasn’t better than David Robinson a day in his life; but Robinson didn’t even make 2nd team in 2 out of the 4 polls. My guess is that BB would have nudged him out.