I’m not going to post an updated bracket today; nothing happened last night that would materially change it, so I’m sticking with yesterday’s bracket. Instead, I’ll offer some commentary on the #1 seeds and some of the bubble teams.
#1 Seeds
Kansas and Baylor are locks. All 99 brackets on bracketmatrix.com have them on the top line. The other two #1 seeds are much less clear, at least to me. The consensus choices are Gonzaga (90 out of 99) and San Diego St. (73 out of 99). I don’t get it.
First of all, I think Dayton has a stronger resume than either of those teams, and I would express that in a very simple way:
- Dayton has 2 losses against the 28th toughest schedule
- Gonzaga has 2 losses against the 152nd toughest schedule
- San Diego St. has 1 loss against the 108th toughest schedule
Gonzaga does have flashier wins (at Arizona, Oregon on a neutral court), but overall, Dayton has played a much tougher schedule.
This isn’t 2019 Gonzaga, which had a non-conference SOS of 34, or 2017 Gonzaga, which had a non-conference SOS of 22. This Gonzaga has a non-conference SOS of 274. I have to think the committee is going to take notice.
I actually think San Diego St. has a better case than Gonzaga. They played a tougher non-conference schedule, and they were perfect in their three toughest games (at BYU, Iowa neutral, Creighton neutral).
Speaking of Creighton… why do I have them on the top line? The short answer is, that’s what my model says, and I’m sticking to it… the longer answer is,
- they have 9 Quadrant 1 wins
- they have no Quadrant 2/3/4 losses
- they are on fire
- the Big East is the toughest conference in the country
I feel like the Big East this year is like the SEC in football. They beat up on each other all year, but whoever emerges from the group deserves to be a #1. Villanova and Seton Hall have almost equally good cases, but Creighton is best positioned, I think. If any of the 3 Big East heavies can win out, including the tournament, it will be difficult to deny them a #1 seed. Both Creighton and Villanova have games left against Seton Hall, so stay tuned.
Someone will, I’m sure, point out that San Diego St. blew out Creighton on a neutral court earlier in the season. Which is perfectly true, and all credit to them, but I don’t think we can fixate on one game as the litmus test that decides everything.
One other thought about Gonzaga and San Diego St. Their profiles are so similar, it also seems to me that the committee either has to give both of them #1 seeds or neither. Two west coast, mid-major teams who have basically won everything against a relatively weak schedule, but do have a handful of impressive non-conference wins. It will be fascinating to see what happens if Gonzaga, San Diego St., Dayton, and one of the Big East teams (and Florida State, for that matter) all win out.
Bubble Teams
Utah State and Rhode Island are the two teams that my model says are out, but most brackets say are in.
In the case of Utah State, I overruled my model and put them in anyway, but I’m not convinced. The problem is their 4-6 record against Quadrant 1& 2 teams. In the past 4 years, which is as far back as I have the energy to go, I don’t see an at-large team with less than 5.
The one thing they do have going for them, and the reason I put them in the field, is that they played 2 games against solid SEC teams (LSU and Florida) on neutral courts – and won them both. It’s the “they made the most of their opportunities” argument. Ultimately I think that will be enough to get them in – but they should be nervous. They’ll probably get one more shot at San Diego St. in the Mountain West tournament.
Rhode Island is more problematic. I struggle to understand why they are in the field in 90 of 99 brackets:
- They have one Quadrant 1 win, and that was at VCU.
- Their best non-conference wins are at home against Alabama and at home against Providence, both Quadrant 2.
- They played LSU on a neutral court (in the same tournament as Utah State) – and lost by 13.
- Their ratings are not eye-popping (NET – 40, BPI – 55, KenPom – 48, Sagarin – 55).
The only team in the past 2 years who received an at large bid with one Quad 1 win is last year’s Nevada team, who was overseeded at #7 and promptly lost to Florida. But their ratings were all much higher.
Rhode Island has a home game left against Dayton, and then the A10 tournament. Obviously a win over Dayton would solidify their position. In the A10 tournament, they could wind up playing Richmond in the semis, which today would be a Quadrant 2 but could wind up being a Quadrant 1. In any case, they need to do more. If they can’t beat Dayton, I think they’re in trouble.
NC State. It’s the annual “Kevin Keatts NC State Bubble Analysis”. My first observation is that their resume is quite different from last season. Last year, the mostly beat the teams they should have beaten, but they lacked quality wins and played a horrible non-conference schedule. This year, they played a better non-conference schedule and have more quality wins – but they’ve lost a bunch of games (7 to be exact) to sub-Quadrant 1 teams.
Overall, I think this year’s team is in a better position, because quality wins help more than bad losses hurt. But 7 Quadrant 2/3 losses is really a lot.
One thing that might encourage Wolfpack fans is their similarity to a team that made the field last year, St. John’s. St. John’s also had 5 Quadrant 1 wins; they had 6 Quadrant 2/3 losses; and a very low NET ranking (73). Ultimately their 5 Quadrant 1 wins pulled them into the field.
In 2018, there were 3 teams with 7 Quadrant 2/3 losses that received at-large bids: Alabama, Florida, and Arizona State. None of them is a perfect analogue. Alabama and Florida played very difficult schedules and had 8 and 9 Quadrant 1 wins, respectively. If you get that many Quadrant 1 wins, you’re in the tournament, period. Arizona State is more interesting – they were only 3-5 in Quadrant 1 games that year, and they were a very controversial selection. If NC State makes it this year, it will be a similar story.