——————– SAFELY IN FOR NOW ————————

1) Wichita St.

The Shockers got a solid road win at SMU on Sunday. Their best wins are at UConn and at Oklahoma State, which aren’t all that impressive. However, they will get credit for playing OSU, West Virginia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and VCU in non-conference, and winning 4 out of those 5 games. That, plus a lack of any truly objectionable losses, keeps them safely in the field. Winning one of their last 2 should be enough.

2) Stanford

The Cardinal added a jewel to what had been an unremarkable resume with their win over Colorado. They now have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, a 2-3 Quadrant 2 record, and one bad loss at Cal. They played a weak non-conference schedule overall, but did get a neutral court win against Oklahoma. Win at Oregon State on Thursday, and they should be safely in.

3) St. Mary’s

The Gaels have decent ratings in the 30s, played a decent non-conference schedule including neutral court wins over Wisconsin and Arizona State, and are 10-4 away from home. Their blemishes are only 3 Quadrant I wins and 3 sub-Quadrant I losses, but in this field, they are close to being a lock.

————————— LAST 4 BYES ——————————-

4) Providence

The Friars have a bit of an odd resume. They have a total of 7 Quadrant 1 wins, including road wins against Villanova, Butler, and Marquette, and home wins against Creighton and Seton Hall. They’ve basically beaten all the best teams in the Big East. What’s wrong, you ask? 4 Quadrant 3/4 losses, including a rare Quadrant 4 loss to Long Beach State, who is one of the worst teams in the country. But there are just too many good wins. They just have to score maybe one more win to make sure their record doesn’t get close to .500.

5) Florida

The Gators don’t have any great wins, but they do have 4 Quadrant I wins overall, and no really bad losses. Their ratings are generally strong. They’re in right now.

6) Rutgers

Interesting team here. Their ratings are quite good. They have three really good wins at home against Seton Hall, Penn State, and Wisconsin. They have 2 Quadrant 2/3 losses, which isn’t too bad. Their Achilles heel, however, is that they are 1-10 away from home. Now, in their defense, 8 of those 11 games were really difficult Quadrant 1 games, and they were competitive in almost every one. But they didn’t do themselves any favors by winning only 1 of the 3 winnable games, losing to Pitt and St. Bonaventure. Ultimately I think the committee will not penalize them too much for losing those really difficult games, but they would do well to win at Purdue and/or win a game or two in the Big Ten Tournament.

7) Indiana

The Hoosiers have played 15 Quadrant 1 games, winning 6, including 2 shiny wins against Michigan State and Florida State. 6-9 doesn’t sound that great, but when it comes to Quadrant 1 games, wins help more than losses hurt. They also don’t have any bad losses. They didn’t do themselves any favors with the loss to Illinois, but I think they’re OK for now. They need to beat Minnesota on Wednesday.

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8) Texas Tech

Texas Tech is 20th in the NET, 21st in BPI, and 23rd on KenPom. It goes downhill from there… they do have a really good neutral court win over Louisville, and a home win over West Virginia. They also don’t have any really bad losses. Their last 2 games are against Baylor and Kansas; a win in either would make them a lock. If they lose them both, they’re at 18-13 going into the Big 12 Tournament and likely in need of wins.

9) Utah State

The Aggies have an odd resume with only 4 Quadrant 1/2 wins. You would think a team like that would have no chance to get an at-large bid, but they have one really good thing going for them. They scheduled LSU and Florida outside the league on neutral courts – and won both games. So they have a really good “made the most of their opportunities” argument. Their regular season is over. Given the weakness of the teams they’re competing with, I think they’re probably in, but a good showing in the Mountain West Tourney would help. No team with 4 Quadrant 1/2 wins can feel safe until they see their name in the bracket.

10) Cincinnati

Well, the good news is the Bearcats are 6-0 in Quadrant 2 games, which is good. The bad news is… well, most everything else. Their best wins are at home against Houston and at Wichita State. They have 4 Quadrant 3 losses, which is really damaging. Their only decent non-conference win is at home against Tennessee. Their last 2 regular season games aren’t going to help them, but will hurt them if they lose. Their best chance is to get a good win the AAC Tourney. They might be able to get in by not screwing up while the teams around them do.

11) Texas

Shaka Smart’s Longhorns are coming on strong, and their win at Texas Tech on Sunday vaults them into the field. They have 4 Quadrant 1 wins, including a win at Purdue, and no Quadrant 3 losses. They have 4 Quadrant 2 losses, which is more than you would like. They’ve had too many non-competitive games – losing by 38 to West Virginia, 22 to Providence, 29 to Iowa State – and you wonder how much that will affect them. A win at Oklahoma on Tuesday would come close to cinching it.

CUT LINE ————– (FIRST FOUR OUT) ————–CUT LINE

12) NC State

The Wolfpack have a blowout home win over Duke, and 3 other Quadrant 1 wins. Their win at UNCG just dropped to a Quadrant 2. They have enough good wins to get in, but the problem is, they have 7 Quadrant 2/3 losses, including sweeps by Georgia Tech and UNC, and a loss at Boston College.

Wolfpack fans can perhaps be encouraged that their resume is quite similar to 2019 St. John’s, which was a controversial at-large selection. They can get a lot of mileage out of that Duke win, but all those bad losses seem to have neutralized it. I just don’t know. I think they’re right on the edge.

13) UCLA

The Bruins are plagued with really low rankings – 75 in the NET and 94 (!) in the BPI. That in and of itself isn’t enough to keep them out. They have 6 Quadrant 1 wins, including a sweep of Arizona and a win at Colorado. But when they’ve lost, they’ve lost big, which probably contributes to those low rankings. They have too many bad losses – UNC, Washington State, and home losses to Hofstra and Cal State Fullerton. Still, the Bruins have a case, and I won’t be surprised if they sneak in.

14) Arkansas

Now we’re getting into the seriously flawed teams. The Razorbacks are sitting at 6-10 in the SEC. They did win at Indiana and at Georgia Tech outside the conference. But there is just not a lot to like here. They don’t have any sub-Quadrant 2 losses, so that helps. The Georgia Tech win could become a Quadrant 1 if the Jackets jump up a couple of spots in the NET. They really need to beat LSU on Wednesday; otherwise they’ll go into the SEC Tourney needing wins.

15) Rhode Island

Rhody had a really damaging home loss to St. Louis on Sunday. Their ratings are OK, but they have only 1 Quadrant 1 win, and that was at VCU. Quadrant 2/3/4 look fine, but overall, it isn’t enough.

———————— NEXT FOUR OUT ——————————-

16) Purdue

The Boilers are an interesting case. They’ve played 10 games against the upper tier Quadrant 1 teams – and gone 1-9, the lone win being a home blowout of Michigan State. And all 9 of those losses were away from home. In the rest of their games, they’ve done quite well, notching 3 other Quadrant 1 wins. They are very high in the ratings. All they are lacking is wins. You get the feeling if they could have replaced a couple of those tough games with easy games and their record were 17-11 instead of 15-13, they’d be in. Unfortunately, their last 2 games aren’t easy – at Iowa and Rutgers at home. They probably have to win both, or do something special in the Big 10 Tourney.

17) Mississippi State

The Bulldogs have a good win at Florida, but only 1 other Quadrant 1 win. They have 2 bad losses to Quadrant 3 teams. 2 Quadrant 1 wins and 2 Quadrant 3 losses doesn’t add up to a good enough resume. Winning at South Carolina on Tuesday might not be enough, but it would give them a chance.

18) Richmond

The Spiders have played only 10 Quadrant 1/2 games, winning 4. In that respect, they’re similar to Utah State. However, their wins aren’t quite as good as the Aggies; they have a bad loss at Radford; and their rating aren’t as good. They have to win their last 2 and make the A-10 final to have a shot.

19) Clemson

The Tigers aren’t really a serious contender, with a NET of 73 and 7 Quadrant 2/3 losses – but they do have 3 great wins over Duke, Florida State, and Louisville, which is more than a lot of the teams in front of them can say. They haven’t done much of anything away from Littlejohn Coliseum. If they could win their last 2 games and get their record to something more respectable, and then go, say, 2-1 and the ACC Tournament… aaaah, that’s probably still not enough. But I’m pulling for them.