- Creighton, BYU, Utah State, and New Mexico all got Quad 1 wins this week and are moving up as a result
- Kentucky, Michigan State, Virginia, Texas A&M, and Cincinnati all dropped as a result of Quad 2/3 losses
There is some movement around the cut line as I continue to take a closer look at the resumes. I moved Seton Hall into the bracket, not because they did anything this week, but more that after reviewing their resume further, it’s better than I initially thought.
Gonzaga is an interesting case. They have just the one Quad 1 win, but it’s a good one, at Kentucky. Their metrics are outstanding – 22 in the NET, 19 in ESPN BPI, 20 on kenpom. I think they might get credit for attempting to play a rigorous non-conference schedule. They lost to Purdue and UConn, no shame there. They beat Syracuse, UCLA, and USC on neutral courts, but none of those teams happens to be very good this year. That’s not Gonzaga’s fault. They certainly pass the “eye test”. They have two more opportunities for Quad 1s in their last two games at San Francisco and at St. Mary’s. I think winning one of those two will probably be enough.
The Big East situation continues to be confusing. Butler, Xavier, and St. John’s have played themselves out of the mix for now, which leaves Seton Hall, Providence, and Villanova among the teams battling for the last few spots in the tournament. It is very difficult to differentiate them. Seton Hall and Providence appear a hair better than Villanova, so I have them both among the last four teams in.
In the ACC, Virginia Tech helped themselves with their win over Virginia. It was “only” a Quad 2, but the margin of victory helped their NET and their predictive metrics. Their upcoming game against Pitt on Saturday has the feeling of an elimination game.
Wake Forest, same old story. No matter how bad they beat Pitt, they need Quad 1 wins. They have three chances remaining, the next three Saturdays: Duke at home, at Virginia Tech, and Clemson at home. Win two of those three and they’re in. Win zero and they’re out. Win one and… I dunno. My guess is, that won’t be enough, but it may depend on what other teams do.
Pitt had a disastrous game against Wake and probably needs to win out to have a chance at an at-large bid.
NC State got a second Quad 1 win as a result of Wake Forest moving up to #27 in the NET, which makes their home win against Wake a Quad 1. But they’re still woefully short right now. They have three Quad 1s remaining (at UNC, vs. Duke, at Pitt), so there is still an opportunity. If they win out, they would be close.
Syracuse doesn’t have the strength of schedule remaining to get there, even if they were to win out.
| Team | 2/19 Seed | New Seed | Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad) |
| Baylor | 3 | 4 | L 78-71 at BYU (NET 11, Quad 1-A) |
| Creighton | 4 | 3 | W 85-66 vs. UConn (NET 4, Quad 1-A) |
| Dayton | 4 | 5 | L 71-67 at George Mason (NET 79, Quad 2) |
| Wisconsin | 5 | 4 | W 74-70 vs. Maryland (NET 71, Quad 2) |
| Florida | 5 | 6 | L 98-93 at Alabama (NET 5, Quad 1-A) |
| Kentucky | 5 | 6 | L 75-74 at LSU (NET 85, Quad 2) |
| Clemson | 6 | 5 | W 81-57 at Georgia Tech (NET 146, Quad 3) |
| Michigan State | 6 | 7 | L 78-71 vs. Iowa (NET 62, Quad 2) |
| BYU | 7 | 5 | W 78-71 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A) |
| TCU | 7 | 8 | L 82-81 at Texas Tech (NET 28, Quad 1-A) |
| Colorado State | 7 | 10 | L 68-66 at New Mexico (NET 20, Quad 1-A) |
| Oklahoma | 8 | 7 | Idle |
| Virginia | 8 | 10 | L 75-41 at Virginia Tech (NET 52, Quad 1-B) |
| Florida Atlantic | 8 | 9 | W 80-70 vs. SMU (NET 40, Quad 2) |
| Mississippi State | 9 | 7 | W 83-71 vs. Ole Miss (NET 68, Quad 2) |
| Utah State | 9 | 7 | W 68-63 vs. San Diego State (NET 18, Quad 1-B) |
| Nebraska | 10 | 8 | W 85-70 at Indiana (NET 105, Quad 2) |
| New Mexico | 10 | 9 | W 68-66 vs. Colorado State (NET 25, Quad 1-B) |
| Texas A&M | 10 | 11 | L 78-71 vs. Arkansas (NET 120, Quad 3) |
| Nevada | 11 | 10 | W 76-58 vs. Wyoming (NET 160, Quad 3) |
| Cincinnati | 11 | Out | L 80-76 vs. Oklahoma State (NET 114, Quad 3) |
| Mississippi | 11 | 12 | L 83-71 at Mississippi State (NET 36, Quad 1-A) |
| Utah | 12 | 11 | Idle |
| Seton Hall | Out | 11 | Idle |
| Akron | 13 | 14 | L 72-64 at Toledo (NET 129, Quad 2) |
| Vermont | 14 | 13 | W 94-80 at Albany (NET 260, Quad 4) |
- Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona
- Kansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, Iowa State
- Marquette, Duke, Alabama, Creighton
- Baylor, Auburn, Wisconsin, Illinois
- Dayton, San Diego State, Clemson, BYU
- Texas Tech, Florida, Washington State, Kentucky
- St. Mary’s, Utah State, Michigan State, Mississippi State
- TCU, South Carolina, Nebraska, Oklahoma
- New Mexico, Florida Atlantic, Texas, Northwestern
- Colorado State, Nevada, Virginia, Boise State
- Gonzaga, Drake, Grand Canyon, Utah, Texas A&M, Seton Hall
- Providence, Ole Miss, Princeton, James Madison
- McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont
- UNC Wilmington, Akron, Louisiana Tech, High Point
- Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
- Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, Southern, Merrimack, South Dakota St., Norfolk State
Last Four Byes: Virginia, Boise State, Gonzaga, Utah
Last Four In: Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Providence, Ole Miss
First Four Out: Wake Forest, Villanova, Cincinnati, Indiana State
Next Four Out: Colorado, Virginia Tech, Iowa, Oregon
And Then The Next Four After That: Butler, SMU, Pitt, St. John’s
And How About Four More for Good Measure: Richmond, Xavier, Syracuse, Memphis