Gainers
- Baylor, Kentucky, BYU, Northwestern, Nevada, Texas, and St. John’s with Quad 1-A wins
Losers
- Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Wake Forest with Quad 2 losses
Top Seeds
Purdue, UConn, and Houston are easy. The battle for the fourth #1 seed is between Arizona, Tennessee, and North Carolina, and it probably won’t be decided until the conference tournaments.
Bubble Watch
Here is how I see it right now. 12 teams competing for 9 bids. I would group them as follows:
90% Confident: Gonzaga, Virginia, Colorado State
I am 90+% confident these teams are in right now. They could still lose their way out, though. Gonzaga is probably going to get two more chances to play St. Mary’s. Winning either of those makes them a lock.
60% Confident: New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova
I have no idea how to order these five, but the main thing I want to say is, I think they are all ahead of the next group. If the tournament started today, I believe all five of these teams would be in. But it also wouldn’t be the shock of my life if one of them were left out in favor of someone from the next group. The teams in this group still have opportunities to either move up to lock status or to move down into the next group.
Problems: Utah, Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado
If there are no bid-stealers, there is room for one team from this group. Utah has some good wins, but they are 2-6 in their last eight games. Drake is, well, Drake. I don’t understand why Lunardi and others are not including them in the at-large conversation; they have three Quad 1 wins, including a good neutral court win against Nevada. But their overall schedule strength is weak and it’s hard to see them making it if they can’t win the MVC Tournament. Wake Forest and Colorado are similar, each has great metrics but only one Quad 1 win. Wake is 1-4 against Quad 1, 5-6 against Quad 2, and 3-10 away from home. That’s a tournament team? Colorado’s best win is… at Washington? Not good enough.
ACC Watch
- Wake Forest is in trouble again with their loss to Notre Dame. They MUST win at least one of their remaining Quad 1 games at Virginia Tech and home against Clemson. They have been terrible away from home this year, so the VT game is really big for them.
- Virginia has at BC, at Duke, and Georgia Tech at home. I think as long as they win two of those three, they will be OK.
- Pitt has a faint pulse for an at-large bid. Maybe, just maybe, if they win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
- Nobody else has a shot.
Elevator Report
| Team | 2/26 Seed | New Seed | Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad) |
| Auburn | 3 | 4 | L 92-84 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A) |
| Baylor | 4 | 3 | W 62-54 at TCU (NET 38, Quad 1-A) |
| Wisconsin | 4 | 5 | L 74-70 at Indiana (NET 105, Quad 2) |
| Kentucky | 5 | 4 | W 91-89 at Mississippi State (NET 31, Quad 1-A) |
| Dayton | 5 | 6 | W 80-66 vs. Davidson (NET 106, Quad 3) |
| BYU | 6 | 5 | W 76-68 at Kansas (NET 17, Quad 1-A) |
| Texas Tech | 6 | 8 | L 81-69 vs. Texas (NET 34, Quad 2) |
| St. Mary’s | 7 | 6 | W 83-57 at Pepperdine (NET 244, Quad 4) |
| Mississippi State | 7 | 8 | L 91-89 vs. Kentucky (NET 19, Quad 1-A) |
| TCU | 7 | 9 | L 62-54 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A) |
| Nebraska | 8 | 7 | L 78-69 at Ohio State (NET 63, Quad 1-B) |
| Northwestern | 8 | 7 | W 68-61 at Maryland (NET 69, Quad 1-B) |
| Oklahoma | 8 | 9 | L 58-45 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A) |
| Nevada | 9 | 7 | W 77-74 at Colorado State (NET 29, Quad 1-A) |
| Colorado State | 9 | 10 | L 77-74 vs. Nevada (NET 37, Quad 1-B) |
| Texas | 10 | 8 | W 81-69 at Texas Tech (NET 42, Quad 1-B) |
| Seton Hall | 10 | 11 | L 85-64 at Creighton (NET 12, Quad 1-A) |
| Virginia | 11 | 10 | W 72-68 at Boston College (NET 92, Quad 2) |
| Wake Forest | 11 | Out | L 70-65 at Notre Dame (NET 135, Quad 2) |
| Drake | 12 | Out | W 107-105 at UIC (NET 179, Quad 3) |
| St. John’s | Out | 11 | W 82-59 at Butler (NET 69, Quad 1-B) |
| Villanova | Out | 11 | W 75-47 vs. Georgetown (NET 207, Quad 4) |
| UC Irvine | 13 | 14 | W 89-64 at Cal State Northridge (NET 221, Quad 3) |
| Louisiana Tech | 14 | 13 | W 90-84 at Western Kentucky (NET 145, Quad 3) |
| UNC Wilmington | 14 | Out | L 69-58 vs. Hofstra (NET 110, Quad 3) |
| College of Charleston | Out | 14 | W 96-73 vs. Campbell (NET 291, Quad 4) |
| Quinnipiac | 16 | Out | L 88-78 at Rider (NET 242, Quad 4) |
| Fairfield | Out | 16 | W 88-64 vs. Siena (NET 353, Quad 4) |
- Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
- Tennessee, North Carolina, Marquette, Kansas
- Iowa State, Alabama, Duke, Baylor
- Creighton, Auburn, Kentucky, Illinois
- BYU, Clemson, Wisconsin, San Diego State
- Dayton, Florida, St. Mary’s, Washington State
- South Carolina, Northwestern, Nebraska, Nevada
- Mississippi State, Texas, Utah State, Texas Tech
- Michigan State, TCU, Oklahoma, Boise State
- Gonzaga, Florida Atlantic, Virginia, Colorado State
- New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah
- Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
- McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Louisiana Tech
- UC Irvine, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
- Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
- Lipscomb, Fairfield, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern
Last Four Byes: Virginia, Colorado State, New Mexico, Seton Hall
Last Four In: Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah
First Four Out: Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado, Pitt
Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Iowa, Cincinnati, Ohio State
And Then The Next Four After That: Richmond, Oregon, Syracuse, Kansas State
And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Xavier