Headlines
- Tennessee grabs a #1 seed with a win at Alabama
- Gonzaga moves into lock status with a win at St. Mary’s
- Providence drops out of the field after losing at home to Villanova
- Drake moves into the field – for now
Top Seeds
Tennessee leapfrogs Arizona, for now, with their win at Alabama. The last #1 seed is still between Tennessee, Arizona, and North Carolina and will come down to the conference tournaments.
Bubble Watch
Let me start with this. Gonzaga is in. They are a lock and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
Colorado State is moving towards lock territory. I think they would get in even if they lose their last game – but I wouldn’t advise it.
After Colorado State, I rank them:
- Villanova – big win at Providence
- St. John’s – idle
- Virginia – looked terrible against Duke, hanging by a thread
- Utah – blowout win over Cal
- New Mexico – lost at Boise, not a bad loss per se, but any loss at this point is damaging
- Drake – good win vs. Bradley
- Seton Hall – blown out at UConn
- CUT LINE IS HERE
- Providence – damaging home loss to Villanova
- Colorado – beat Stanford, who isn’t any good
- Wake Forest – yet another road loss at VT
- Pitt – blowout road win over BC
- Iowa – making a late push after a quality win at Northwestern
ACC Watch
- Wake Forest is in big trouble. Their loss to Virginia Tech brings their record away from home to 3-11 on the season, and one of the three wins was against Towson. Beating Georgia Tech and Clemson is a must, and I’m not sure even that will be enough.
- Virginia looked terrible, again, against Duke. I still think they will get in if they beat Georgia Tech in their last game, but a quality win in the tournament would help.
- Pitt is alive, but I still think they need to win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
- Nobody else has a shot.
Elevator Report
| Team | Prior Seed | New Seed | Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad) |
| Arizona | 1 | 2 | W 103-83 vs. Oregon (NET 65, Quad 2) |
| Tennessee | 2 | 1 | W 81-74 at Alabama (NET 7, Quad 1-A) |
| Kansas | 2 | 3 | L 82-74 at Baylor (NET 13, Quad 1-A) |
| Iowa St. | 3 | 2 | W 60-52 at UCF (NET 66, Quad 1-B) |
| Alabama | 3 | 4 | L 81-74 vs. Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A) |
| Creighton | 4 | 3 | W 89-75 vs. Marquette (NET 14, Quad 1-A) |
| Kentucky | 4 | 5 | W 111-102 vs. Arkansas (NET 120, Quad 3) |
| BYU | 5 | 4 | W 87-75 vs. TCU (NET 38, Quad 2) |
| St. Mary’s | 6 | 7 | L 70-57 vs. Gonzaga (NET 17, Quad 1-B) |
| South Carolina | 7 | 6 | W 82-76 vs. Florida (NET 33, Quad 2) |
| Northwestern | 7 | 9 | L 87-80 vs. Iowa (NET 57, Quad 2) |
| Nevada | 7 | 8 | W 74-66 vs. Fresno State (NET 213, Quad 4) |
| Nebraska | 7 | 8 | W 67-56 vs. Rutgers (NET 91, Quad 3) |
| Mississippi St. | 8 | 9 | L 78-63 at Auburn (NET 6, Quad 1-A) |
| Texas | 8 | 7 | W 81-65 vs. Oklahoma State (NET 115, Quad 3) |
| Texas Tech | 8 | 7 | W 81-70 at West Virginia (NET 144, Quad 3) |
| Boise State | 9 | 8 | W 89-79 vs. New Mexico (NET 28, Quad 1-B) |
| TCU | 9 | 10 | L 87-75 at BYU (NET 12, Quad 1-A) |
| Gonzaga | 10 | 7 | W 70-57 at St. Mary’s (NET 16, Quad 1-A) |
| Virginia | 10 | 11 | L 73-48 at Duke (NET 9, Quad 1-A) |
| Villanova | 11 | 10 | W 71-60 at Providence (NET 63, Quad 1-B) |
| Providence | 11 | Out | L 71-60 vs. Villanova (NET 26, Quad 1-B) |
| Drake | Out | 11 | W 74-66 vs. Bradley (NET 60, Quad 2) |
- Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
- Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette
- Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke
- Alabama, Illinois, Auburn, BYU
- Kentucky, Clemson, San Diego State, Wisconsin
- Dayton, South Carolina, Washington State, Florida
- Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Texas, St. Mary’s
- Nevada, Boise State, Nebraska, Utah State
- Northwestern, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
- TCU, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Villanova
- St. John’s, Virginia, Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall
- Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
- McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
- Louisiana Tech, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
- Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
- Lipscomb, Quinnipiac, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern
Last Four Byes: Colorado State, Villanova, St. John’s, Virginia
Last Four In: Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall
First Four Out: Providence, Colorado, Wake Forest, Pitt
Next Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech
And Then The Next Four After That: Ohio State, Richmond, Ole Miss, Syracuse
And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Kansas State, Oregon, Appalachian State
Wondering how you decide on the AQs? Why JMU over App State, for example?
I’ve thought about that some. It seems like the standard practice is to assume that the team that is first in the standings will get the automatic bid, but I don’t love that approach. It leads to things like putting South Florida in the bracket, which means Florida Atlantic is at-large, which means there is one less at-large bid for everyone else. And there’s no good reason to assume that South Florida is going to win that tournament. So I don’t overthink it, I just go with the team that is at the top of my internal Bracketology ranking.