Automatic Bids (14 of 32 decided):
- Morehead State, Ohio Valley
- Longwood, Big South
- Drake, Missouri Valley
- Stetson, Atlantic Sun
- James Madison, Sun Belt
- Samford, Southern Conference
- Charleston, CAA
- Oakland, Horizon
- Wagner, Northeast
- St. Mary’s, West Coast
- South Dakota State, Summit
- McNeese State, Southland
- Colgate, Patriot
- Montana State, Big Sky
Bubble Team Action Yesterday:
Won and Removed All Doubt:
- Colorado State, W 85-78 vs. Nevada
Lost and Probably Eliminated:
- Memphis, L 71-65 vs. Wichita St.
- Utah, L 72-58 vs. Colorado
- Iowa, L 90-78 vs. Ohio St.
- Kansas State, L 76-57 vs. Iowa St.
- Cincinnati, L 68-56 vs. Baylor
- Wake Forest, L 81-69 vs. Pitt
- Villanova, L 71-65 vs. Marquette
I can’t say with absolute certainty that Wake and Villanova are out, but I’d say < 10% chance.
Another consequential thing that happened yesterday is that Dayton lost. That means that someone else is going to get the Atlantic 10 automatic bid, Dayton will get an at-large bid, and there is therefore one less at-large bid available for everyone else. In my bracket, Indiana State is the victim who drops out.
I would say at this point, the bubble consists of the following teams, which I present in rank order:
- Colorado
- St. John’s
- Seton Hall
- Mississippi State
- Texas A&M
- Virginia
- Pitt
- CUT LINE IS HERE
- Indiana State
- New Mexico
- Providence
- Ohio State
All of these teams are still playing except for Seton Hall and Indiana State.
Today’s Bubble Games
Win and In:
- Colorado vs. Washington State. I think Colorado will make it anyway, but this win would remove all doubt.
- Texas A&M vs. Kentucky. I have them a few spots higher than Lunardi.
- Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
- St. John’s vs. UConn
Win Today, Then Win Again:
- Ohio State vs. Illinois. Probably need to get to the tournament final, but if they were to win today and Providence, Pitt, and New Mexico all lose, then it would get interesting.
Win and Maybe In, Lose and Probably Out:
- Providence vs. Marquette. It would be the Friars’ 7th Quad 1 win. No team with seven Quad 1 wins has ever been left out of the field as far as I can tell.
- Pitt vs. North Carolina. Pitt really looks like a tournament team. I think Lunardi is underselling them. If they lose today, I wouldn’t rule them out, but I’d say their chances are no better than 25%.
- New Mexico vs. Colorado State
And the Rest:
- Virginia vs. NC State. Most of the teams Virginia is competing with have a Quad 1-A type game today. The Cavaliers do not. That makes it hard to pin down their prospects. Even if they win, they could get leapfrogged by Pitt, New Mexico, or Providence if any of them win. On the other hand, even if they lose, they could maintain their position if all the teams below them lose.
- Indiana State. The poor Sycamores can only sit and watch. What they really need is for Providence, Pitt, New Mexico, and Ohio State to all lose today. Which could totally happen.
- Seton Hall. Not a good showing against St. John’s yesterday. I think the Pirates have done enough, but I will have some doubt until I see their name on the board on Sunday.