My Final 2024 Bracket

Wow. What a day for college basketball and what a day for bracketology. In yesterday’s post, my last four teams in were New Mexico, St. John’s, Seton Hall, and Pitt. Then I talked about three possible bid-stealing scenarios with NC State, Oregon, and Florida Atlantic.

Well, New Mexico took the suspense out of their selection by winning the Mountain West tournament. And then St. John’s, Seton Hall, Indiana State, Virginia, Providence, and anybody else hanging on to hopes of an at-large bid watched in horror as their bids vanished. First Florida Atlantic was upset by Temple in a battle of the Owls, ensuring that a second team from the American would get a bid. Next NC State seized a bid, completing its improbable run through the ACC. And Oregon made it a clean sweep for the bid-stealers by winning the Pac-12 title over Colorado.

As a result, there has never been less suspense about who is going to make the field. It seems like the distance between the last teams in (Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Northwestern, Oklahoma) and the first teams out (St. John’s, Seton Hall, Virginia, Pitt, Indiana State) is vast. Is there room for a surprise?

I don’t see much. The only teams with any hope are probably Indiana State and St. John’s. As for Indiana State, it’s very difficult to compare a really good mid-major with a mediocre major conference team. It becomes a matter of philosophy as much as numbers. It’s possible the committee could choose philosophy over resume and pick the Sycamores. But I doubt it.

I suppose that if the committee shows a bias towards recency and the “eye test”, they could choose to go with St. John’s or even Pitt over Northwestern, Oklahoma, or Michigan State. But I don’t have any reason to believe they will.

At the top of the bracket, the only suspense left is whether Carolina will hang on to the fourth #1 seed. It seems like the consensus is that they will, but I am going to be a contrarian here and say that it’s going to Iowa State. Carolina’s 9-3 Quad 1 record is better then ISU’s 10-6, but ISU went 7-1 against Quad 2 versus Carolina’s 7-4. Then there’s the 28-point beatdown the Cyclones put on arguably the best team in the country yesterday while the Tar Heels were losing to NC State.

As I write this, I sense that I will probably be wrong, because it always seems like the committee gives comparatively little weight to the conference tournaments. But surely ISU winning the Big 12 in such dominant fashion counts for something. We will find out.

So without further ado… my final bracket:

1. UConn, Purdue, Houston, Iowa State
2. North Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette
3. Creighton, Baylor, Illinois, Auburn
4. Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Alabama
5. Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, Texas Tech
6. St. Mary’s, San Diego State, South Carolina, Clemson
7. Dayton, Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington State
8. Nebraska, Texas, Utah State, Boise State
9. Texas A&M, Colorado, Mississippi State, TCU
10. New Mexico, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Michigan State
11. Drake, Oregon, NC State, Grand Canyon
12. James Madison, McNeese, Samford, Duquesne
13. Vermont, Yale, College of Charleston, UAB
14. Akron, Oakland, Morehead State, Colgate
15. Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Long Beach State, Longwood
16. St. Peter’s, Stetson, Grambling, Montana State, Howard, Wagner

Last Four Byes: Colorado, Mississippi State, TCU, Florida Atlantic

Last Four In: Colorado State, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Michigan State

First Six Out: St. John’s, Seton Hall, Pitt, Indiana State, Virginia, Providence