In my post from Monday, I said the following seven teams were near locks, but not quite:
- Ohio State
- TCU
- NC State
- Santa Clara
- Texas
- Missouri
- UCF
Since then, six of those teams have confirmed that status. Santa Clara, NC State, UCF, and Missouri are my last four byes. Texas, however, had a bad loss to Ole Miss and now is in danger of missing the tournament.
The other teams that are still relevant are below. Right now there are four spots for these eight teams.
- VCU
- SMU
- Texas
- New Mexico
- Auburn
- San Diego State
- Indiana
- Oklahoma
VCU is going to be in unless they get upset in the A10 Tournament. Winning one game is probably enough although two wouldn’t hurt.
SMU and Texas have no more games left. All they can do is sit and watch and hope they don’t get passed by teams below them, Auburn and Oklahoma in particular. If Auburn and Oklahoma win today, they will breathe a little easier. But just a little.
New Mexico and San Diego State are likely headed for a semifinal showdown in the Mountain West Tournament. There is a good chance that the winner of that game gets in and the loser does not.
Auburn needs to beat Tennessee today. I think it’s that simple. Win and they’re in, lose and they’re out.
Indiana is on life support with no more games left to improve their position. Their only chance in my estimation is for Auburn, New Mexico, and San Diego State to all stumble.
Oklahoma probably needs two more wins in the SEC Tournament to get in.
Other bubble teams – Cincinnati, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Cal – are out, and with no more games left, have no opportunity to win their way back in.