Mudville Analytics

As a way of wrapping up this series, I thought it would be good to make a list of other players who received serious consideration for the Top 100.  If you took my last 25 players and replaced them with some of these guys, you wouldn’t be losing much.  I list them in chronological order.

Joe Belmont, Duke, 1954-1956; Ronnie Mayer, Duke, 1954-1956; Lefty Davis, Wake Forest, 1954-1956

Belmont, Mayer, Davis, and #99 Vic Molodet of NC State formed a quartet of players who all played from 1954-1956 and are very difficult to distinguish.  In terms of career All-ACC balloting, Mayer received 452 points, Molodet 434, Belmont 401, Davis 385. 

Tommy Kearns, UNC, 1956-1958

Kearns and #74 Pete Brennan were the key players supporting #17 Lennie Rosenbluth on the 1957 championship team.  In 1958, without Rosenbluth, Kearns made first team All-ACC, but Brennan was ACC Player of the Year.

Doug Moe, UNC, 1959-1961

I had Moe on my list for a while but eventually took him off.  He was academically ineligible in the fall of 1959 and missed over half the Tar Heels’ games.  That probably kept him from being a three-time first-team All-ACC player and cost him a spot on the list.

Coach Bill Strannigan of Wyoming says he has seen only one basketball player better than North Carolina’s Doug Moe, 6-foot-6 senior.  “He was Wilt Chamberlain when he played for Kansas,” says Strannigan.  – The York Dispatch, York, PA, February 28, 1961

Bob Leonard, Wake Forest, 1964-1966

A prolific scorer who arrived just after the glory years of Chappell and Packer. Two-time first team All-ACC and two-time first team All-Tournament. He is the only player with the particular collection of honors who is not in the Top 100.

Eddie Biedenbach, NC State, 1965-1968

Two-time first team All-ACC player who was recruited by Everett Case, played two years for Press Maravich after Case resigned, missed a year with an injury, then played his last year for Norm Sloan.

Tom Owens, South Carolina, 1969-1971; Randy Denton, Duke, 1969-1971

Owens and Denton are similar players who played at the same time.  They finished first and second in rebounds per game all three seasons.  Owens finished his career with 444 All-ACC points; Denton had 442.  Owens was also an outstanding ACC Tournament performer, making first team All-Tournament twice.

Tate Armstrong, Duke, 1974-1977

A sharpshooting Texan, Armstrong was a tremendous scorer who didn’t have any help for most of his career. Then, once help arrived in the form of Spanarkel and Gminski, he went and broke his wrist and missed the second half of his senior year. He probably would have led the league in scoring and made first team All-ACC for the second time. That 1977 Duke team was sneaky good and a keen observer might have perceived that some magic was in the air in 1978.

Walter Davis, UNC, 1974-1977

“Sweet D” was a tremendous player who played at the same time as Kenny Carr, Skip Brown, and Tree Rollins. Overall he seems just behind them in terms of his accomplishments. He is perhaps another player who was held back a bit by playing for Dean Smith; when he got to the NBA, he was immediately one of the best players in the league.

Buck Williams, Maryland, 1979-1981

Williams was named to the 2003 list of the ACC’s 50 greatest players.  I don’t see how you name someone who never made first team All-ACC to the Top 50, but he was very good.

Othell Wilson, Virginia, 1981-1984

Wilson was the other guy on the #2 Ralph Sampson powerhouse Virginia teams.  His injury in 1982 may have cost the Cavaliers a chance to go to the Final Four that year.  But Wilson was a starter on two other Final Four teams (1981 and 1984).  He was first team All-ACC as a sophomore and barely missed as a junior.

Elden Campbell, Clemson, 1987-1990; Dale Davis, Clemson, 1988-1991

I stared at these two for hours and ultimately gave up.  I couldn’t even decide whether Campbell or Davis was better, much less whether they should be in the Top 100.  Clemson was really, really good in 1990, and it’s too bad they got nipped by the UConn buzzer beater.  But it spared them the pain of getting beaten by Duke in the regional final.

Chris Corchiani, NC State, 1988-1991

Maybe voting with my heart more than my head here, since Corchiani never made first team All-ACC.  But he was a great floor general and was the NCAA all-time assist leader until #35 Bobby Hurley surpassed his total (in ~700 more career minutes).  Second in ACC career assists and third in steals.  Remember that thing he used to do if a defender was pressuring him as he brought it up the court?  He would accelerate to get past the defender, then when the defender started running to catch up, Corchiani would suddenly put on the brakes.  The defender wouldn’t be able to stop quickly enough and would wind up on Corchiani’s back and get called for a foul.  Never seen that move from anyone else.

Travis Best, Georgia Tech, 1992-1995

Travis Best, along with Tree Rollins and Buck Williams, is one of the best players never to make first team All-ACC.  He finished sixth in 1994, three points behind #28 Joe Smith; and he finished sixth again in 1995, this time seven points behind Rasheed Wallace.  He is one of only four players in ACC history with 2000 points and 600 assists (the others are #6 Phil Ford, #61 Greivis Vasquez, and #18 Jason Williams).

Chris Carrawell, Duke, 1997-2000

Carrawell really had just the one year, and even that year I think he was a bit overrated.  It was one of those “best player on the best team” situations.  Except he wasn’t really the best player, #14 Shane Battier was.  But, he did run away with ACC Player of the Year and was first or second-team All-American.  Starter on the awesome 1999 team that lost to UConn in the championship game.  Duke’s five starters all finished in the top 12 in All-ACC balloting.

Ed Cota, UNC, 1997-2000; Lonny Baxter, Maryland, 1999-2002

Ed Cota and Lonny Baxter are similar players, not in their playing styles of course, but in terms of the trajectory of their careers.  Both were very good as freshmen and played key roles for their entire four-year careers; both made All-ACC three times; both players plateaued as very good but not great players; and both players had some NCAA Tournament success.  Cota played on three Final Four teams; Baxter was of course a key contributor to the 2002 national championship team.  Cota was essentially the same player – the same very good player – for his entire career.

Justin Gray, Wake Forest, 2003-2006

One of the outstanding three-point shooters in league history, Gray ranks eighth in career three-point field goals made. He is in the top 60 in career points scored and made first team All-ACC as a sophomore, but as a junior he was overshadowed by teammate Chris Paul and fell to second team. Then as a senior, the Deacons simply fell apart once ACC play started, finishing 3-13 in the league, and despite excellent individual stats, Gray was relegated to second team again.

Jared Dudley, Boston College, 2004-2007

Had his first two years not been in the Big East, Dudley would probably be in the Top 100.  ACC Player of the Year and second team All-American in 2007.  He was first team All-Big East in 2005.

Al Thornton, Florida State, 2004-2007

Thornton was a bit player his first two years, but he emerged as a junior and had a terrific senior year, finishing a close runner-up to Jared Dudley for ACC Player of the Year and making third team All-American.

Sean Singletary, Virginia, 2005-2008; Tyrese Rice, Boston College, 2006-2009; Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech, 2008-2011

Singletary, Rice, and Delaney are similar cases.  They played during more or less the same era; each scored over 2,000 career points; each made All-ACC a lot; each played on mediocre teams; none received serious consideration for ACC Player of the Year or national honors.  Singletary probably has the best case; he did play on a pretty good Virginia team in 2007, and he received 12 votes for ACC Player of the Year that year.  He is the only player to make first team All-ACC three times who isn’t on my list.  If I had it to do over again, I would probably find a spot for him.

Jack McClinton, Miami, 2007-2009

A two-time first team All-ACC performer who is one of the great shooters in league history. Second to JJ Redick in career free-throw percentage; second to Bo Outlaw in career three-point percentage, but at a much higher volume.

Trevor Booker, Clemson, 2007-2010

A personal favorite of mine.  Five ACC players have 1700 points, 1000 rebounds, and 200 blocks: #2 Ralph Sampson, #15 Sam Perkins, #4 Tim Duncan, #40 Shelden Williams – and Booker.  He played on the best stretch of basketball teams in Clemson history, the four-year run from 2008-2011 when the Tigers had winning records in the ACC and made the NCAA Tournament each year.  All three of the Booker teams (2008, 2009, 2010) lost in the first round.

Jerian Grant, Notre Dame, 2012-2015

Similar case to Jared Dudley.  Grant played his first two years in the Big East and was second team All-Big East as a sophomore.  As a senior, lost out on ACC Player of the Year to Jahlil Okafor, but was MOP of the ACC Tournament as the Irish took the title.  Came within a hair’s breadth of beating 37-0 Kentucky in the regional final and making Notre Dame’s first Final Four since 1978.  Missed most of the 2014 season with an injury which may have kept him off the list, as he was playing at a very high level.

Brice Johnson, UNC, 2013-2016

Similar to Carrawell in that Johnson really just had the one year, but it was some year.  He finished runner-up to #52 Malcolm Brogdon for ACC Player of the Year and was a first team All-American.  He was the MOP of the South Region for a UNC team that came tantalizingly close to winning it all.

Kyle Guy, Virginia, 2017-2019

Kyle Guy was #100 when I first published the top 100 list. Since then, I’ve changed my mind and moved him into honorable mention. His main argument is that he was MOP of the ACC Tournament (2018) and the NCAA Tournament (2019).  The only other players to win both those honors are Art Heyman, James Worthy, Christian Laettner, Shane Battier, and Kyle Singler. But honestly, Guy did not have a great NCAA Tournament in 2019. This was not a Sean May 2005, David Thompson 1974, Juan Dixon 2002, Christian Laettner 1991-type performance. He was money in the final which is why he won the award. Guy did make first team All-ACC twice, but both times he was the 5^th-leading vote getter and finished behind a number of other guys who aren’t anywhere close to this list.  It’s not enough.

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

I still think David Thompson is the greatest player ever in college basketball. David was the queen on the chessboard. He could go everywhere: inside, outside, rebounding. His impact was felt all over the floor. He changed the game. Everyone from then on wanted to be a Skywalker. – Len Elmore, quoted in Legends of NC State Basketball by Tim Peeler

David Thompson is the best player in ACC basketball history.  That’s not a controversial conclusion, but is it unassailable?  Who else has an argument? 

I’d say Sampson has an argument, and… that’s it.  Laettner is my number three, and even if you give him every possible advantage, I don’t see a line of reasoning that leads to the conclusion that he was better than David Thompson.  As for Sampson, he was consensus national Player of the Year three times compared to once for Thompson.  So why does Thompson rate ahead?  It comes down to three things.

1. The three vs. one thing is an oversimplification.  Sampson did not win all the awards in 1981.  Danny Ainge won the Wooden Award and the NABC Award, and Mark Aguirre won the Sporting News Award.  Even in Sampson’s senior year of 1983, Jordan won the Sporting News award.  So Sampson’s three is really more like 2.5.  Thompson, in addition to his sweep of the 1975 awards, also won the AP award in 1974, while Bill Walton won the others.  So Thompson’s one is really more like 1.5.
2. Competition for the awards.  Sampson was competing with Danny Ainge, Terry Cummings, Mark Aguirre, James Worthy, and sophomore Michael Jordan.  Thompson was competing with Bill Walton, generally considered to be one of the five best college basketball players of all time. 
3. Tournament play.  Thompson had one of the all-time great NCAA Tournament performances in 1974, dethroning UCLA and leading the Wolfpack to a national championship.  Sampson’s tournament history was characterized mostly by frustration and missed opportunity.

I’ve mentioned a couple of times the ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia that I have from 2008.  DT is the top-ranked ACC player in their listing of the 50 greatest college basketball players.  The full list of ACC players is:

#8, David Thompson

#13, Christian Laettner

#16, Ralph Sampson

#17, Michael Jordan

#18, Tim Duncan

#27, Phil Ford

#33, Grant Hill

#45, Art Heyman

#46, Len Bias

#47, John Lucas

All of these are reasonable selections except for Hill and Lucas, who have no business in the Top 50 in my opinion.  But back to Thompson.  The seven players listed in front of him are:

#1, Lew Alcindor/Kareem

#2, Oscar Robertson

#3, Bill Russell

#4, Bill Walton

#5, Pete Maravich

#6, Jerry West

#7, Bill Bradley

I’m not going to tread on sacred ground by arguing that Thompson was better than Alcindor, Robertson, or Russell.  But the comparison with Walton is interesting, because they were contemporaries and collided so memorably in 1974.  Looking at the record, it’s not obvious that Bill Walton was a better player than David Thompson.  Their careers coincided, but not perfectly; Walton played 1972-74, while Thompson was 1973-75.  One way to look at it is this.  Each of them played one year without the other – 1972 for Walton, 1975 for Thompson.  Each ran away with National Player of the Year honors in that year.  If we call that a wash, then it comes down to 1973 and 1974.

In 1973, the edge clearly goes to Walton.  He was national player of the year in a landslide, and he had probably the greatest championship game of all time with 44 points on 21-for-22 shooting against Memphis to cap a 30-0 season.  Thompson was a first team All-American but not a serious challenger for player of the year.  However, I do think there are some mitigating factors.  Walton had been national POY the season before, and he played for a program that had won six straight national championships and went 175-5 over those seasons.  It’s impossible to overstate the amount of momentum there was for Walton to win that award again, assuming the Bruins were successful, which they were.  Thompson was certainly known by reputation, but he had never played a varsity game before that season.  Considering the circumstances, I doubt it was possible for Thompson to have won over Walton.  He averaged 25 points and 8 rebounds on 57% from the floor and 82% from the line and was named ACC Player of the Year for a team that went undefeated.  What else could he have done? If he had averaged 35 instead of 25, would he have beaten Walton?  I doubt it.  So while I do think we have to give Walton an edge, I don’t think it’s as much of an edge as the voting totals would imply.

In 1974, I say the edge goes to Thompson.  It starts with the fact that NC State won on the floor.  NC State slew the dragon and stopped UCLA’s run of seven straight championships. Thompson led the way and was named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player.  The voters for national honors started to recognize Thompson’s greatness.  It’s interesting to contrast the AP and the UPI player of the year balloting.  The UPI was announced in early March, which means the votes were taken before the end of the regular season.  Walton won easily.  But the AP vote was announced on April 2, after the NCAA Tournament.  Thompson won by 43 votes.  So the best vote we have, from the most credible organization, and the one that accounts for the entire season, went to Thompson.  Walton had won national POY in a landslide the previous two years.  He was already considered one of the greatest college players of all time.  Consider how easy it would have been for the voters to simply vote for him again and the excellence required for someone to overcome that.  Only another all-time great could do it.  That’s David Thompson.

The one disappointment of Thompson’s career was how it ended.  NC State, Maryland, and North Carolina were three of the best teams in the country in 1975.  After getting swept by Maryland in the regular season, the Wolfpack snuck by them in the ACC Tournament semifinals.  Thompson scored 30 points in the first 30 minutes but then cramped up and was unable to finish the game. How much the injury carried over to the final is hard to say, but he had a subpar performance as Carolina pulled out a 70-66 win.  This was the first year that the ACC got an at-large team into the NCAA Tournament, but the powers that be selected Maryland instead of the Wolfpack, and Thompson’s career was over.

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

Ralph Sampson arrived in Charlottesville in the fall of 1979.  At that time, Virginia had been in the ACC for 26 years, and what did they have to show for it?  Two winning records in conference play and one NCAA Tournament appearance with zero wins.  Of the 130 first team All-ACC performers between 1954 and 1979, only six were from UVa (Buzz Wilkinson twice, Herb Busch, Chip Conner, Barry Parkhill, Jeff Lamp).  Up to that point, UVa as a program was worse than Clemson, which is saying something.

But Terry Holland had something brewing.  He coached the Cavaliers to their first ACC Tournament title in 1976 behind Wally Walker.  The next year, the Cavaliers finished last in the regular season, then very nearly pulled off another tournament run before falling to Carolina in the final.  1978 marked the debut of Jeff Lamp, and Virginia started to climb the ACC standings.  So when Sampson arrived, there was already optimism around the program. 

Sampson had a great freshman year, but his impact on the team was not as much as might have been expected. The Cavaliers actually dropped from 8-6 in the league to 7-7.  You can see his impact reflected in their team statistics. Virginia went from a smallish team that played fast and relied on forcing turnovers to a slower-paced team with very good FG% defense and strong rebounding margin, but the turnover margin went in the wrong direction.  It seems that it took a year for them to figure out exactly how to play with Sampson and best utilize his skills.  Sampson averaged 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 4.6 blocks per game.  He easily outpointed Sidney Lowe for ACC Rookie of the Year.  (As an aside, his season total of 157 blocks would be tied for 20^th most all-time in a season in NCAA Division I, but I guess they didn’t officially count blocks until some time later.)

For the next three years, Virginia was one of the best teams in the country, and Sampson was at the center, literally and figuratively.  In 1981, the Cavaliers started 22-0 and were ranked #1.  Sampson was a year older and a year better, Jeff Lamp was still doing his thing, and the addition of Othell Wilson improved the Cavaliers’ ballhandling and defense.  Virginia advanced to the Final Four where they lost to North Carolina behind Al Wood’s incredible 39-point performance.  It was a breakthrough year for the program.  The only blemish was an inexplicable blowout in the ACC Tournament semifinals at the hands of Maryland.  Sampson was named National Player of the Year over DePaul’s Mark Aguirre and BYU’s Danny Ainge by both the AP and UPI in votes that were competitive, but not close.

1982 followed a similar pattern.  Virginia started out 24-1 and was again ranked #1 in the country before losing at Maryland in the last game of the regular season.  North Carolina was neck-and-neck with the Cavaliers all year.  After splitting their regular season matchups, the Tar Heels eked out an ugly 47-45 win in the ACC Tournament final.  Considering the Tar Heels were the best team in the country, this was perhaps excusable, but what wasn’t excusable was the Cavaliers’ Sweet 16 loss to UAB.  However, looking back, there were some mitigating circumstances.  First of all, the game was played in Birmingham on the Blazers’ home court.  Now that’s ridiculous.  There is no way that a #1 seed should be playing a road game in the regionals.  In addition, first team All-ACC performer Othell Wilson was hurt and played just four minutes.  With a healthy Othell Wilson and a reasonable draw, Virginia probably would’ve been in the Final Four again.  But they weren’t.  Coupled with the disappointments from the previous two ACC Tournaments, they started to gain a “can’t win the big one” reputation.  Sampson was again named National Player of the Year over DePaul’s Terry Cummings, and this time the votes were not close.

In 1983, Virginia was preseason #1.  They added Maine transfer Rick Carlisle to their core group.  They went 25-3 in the regular season, with two losses to UNC and the infamous Chaminade loss.  Going into the ACC Tournament they were ranked second behind the Phi Slamma Jamma Houston Cougars.  The Cavaliers demolished their first two opponents by 33 and 29 points and figured to have gotten a break when NC State upset North Carolina in the other semifinal.  But the Wolfpack surprised everyone by upsetting the Cavaliers in the final, flushing Sampson’s last chance to bring home an ACC Tournament title.  Virginia was sent West as the #1 seed in that region.  The main competition was expected to come from PAC-10 champions UCLA, but the Bruins were upset by Utah.  Virginia survived a couple of tight games to advance to the regional final, where much to everyone’s surprise, NC State was waiting for the Cavaliers again.  And we all know what happened; the Wolfpack broke Sampson’s heart one last time with a 63-62 win.  The Cavaliers shot 63% from the field.  How do you shoot 63% and lose?  Answer: -11 in turnover margin and 10-19 from the line.  Time and again during Sampson’s tenure, the Cavaliers were done in by missing clutch free throws.  Sampson received another consolation prize as he was named ACC and National Player of the Year for a third time (although the ACC POY vote was surprisingly close with Michael Jordan).

How, then, do we summarize Sampson’s career?  As a three-time national player of the year, he has to be regarded as one of the greatest players in the history of college basketball.  And yet for many fans, his name is synonymous with unfulfilled promise and missed opportunity. Is it fair? I think we can attribute it to a little bit of bad luck, a little bit of running into the wrong team at the wrong time, and some genuine failure to perform in the biggest moments.  One of the conclusions I have come to in reflecting on 1983 is that NC State was pretty doggone good.  Call them a Cinderella if you want, but look at who they had.  A couple of NBA players in Sidney Lowe and Thurl Bailey, a great shooter in Dereck Whittenburg, a future Top 100 player in Lorenzo Charles. Those upsets over Virginia and everyone else weren’t as surprising as they were portrayed at the time.  In addition, Sampson’s supporting cast wasn’t good enough.  Othell Wilson was a nice player, Rick Carlisle was a nice player, but they did not have a real complement to Sampson after Jeff Lamp graduated.  Opponents in the postseason were able to design defenses around smothering Sampson and making the other players beat them, and they couldn’t do it.

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

Christian Laettner. For me personally, I don’t think there’s any ACC player who conjures up as many powerful memories. His time at Duke corresponded exactly with my high school years, the time when my interest in ACC basketball was at its highest. For me he was a kind of basketball version of Ric Flair – the villain you love to hate. For whatever reason, what sticks out to me most with Laettner, besides the Kentucky shot I guess, is how he suddenly started shooting threes as a senior – and proceeded to knock down 56% of them. That season still ranks 13th all-time in NCAA Division I for three-point shooting percentage. He seems like the kind of guy who could pick up a bowling ball for the first time and roll a 300. He made everything look easy.

Any consideration of Laettner’s greatness has to deal with the question of how much weight to put on his NCAA Tournament performance.  Laettner is right up there with Bill Russell, Oscar Robertson, Lew Alcindor, and Bill Walton as the greatest March Madness performers ever.  He played in four Final Fours and three championship games, winning two.  His overall record in NCAA Tournament play was 21-2.  He is the tournament’s all-time leading scorer.  He was Most Outstanding Player of his region twice, and of the tournament once.  He won two tournament games on buzzer beaters.  He had the famous “perfect game” against Kentucky when he went 10-for-10 from the field and 10-for-10 from the line.  He had an incredible individual performance in 1991, leading the Blue Devils to a Final Four win over UNLV who had manhandled them the year before.  For his career, he shot over 60% from the field and 85% from the line in the NCAA Tournament.  I could go on.

One way I thought of looking at it is this.  Let’s pretend for a moment that Laettner had never played in the NCAA Tournament.  Where would he rank then?  My thinking is, he’d be somewhere in the mid-teens, maybe in the Johnny Dawkins/Danny Ferry range.  He was ACC and national player of the year as a senior, so that obviously counts for a lot.  As a junior, though, he was “only” second team All-America, and he didn’t win ACC POY either as that went to Rodney Monroe.  As a sophomore, he finished seventh in All-ACC voting, landing on second team.  It’s a pretty similar record to a Bias, Ferry, or Dawkins. Of course, one could argue that he was national player of the year precisely because of his NCAA Tournament performance – that his reputation was bolstered so much by his tournament exploits in 1990 and 1991 that it carried over into the voting in 1992.

So how much extra credit does he get for being the greatest NCAA Tournament performer of all time?  Well, a lot.  I started out with him fourth, behind Thompson, Sampson, and Duncan.  I still think in my heart of hearts that Duncan was better, but… there’s just too much there.  I have to put Laettner ahead.  Now I’m asking myself if he should be ahead of Sampson. I guess that’s going too far; Sampson wasn’t bad in the tournament, and he wasn’t playing with Bobby Hurley either.

Here’s a fun stat.  Laettner played in four regional finals.  Those are pretty big games, right?  I mean aside from winning the championship, making the Final Four is the most impactful and meaningful and memorable thing that a college basketball team can accomplish.  Well, in those four games, Laettner averaged 24.3 points on 91% from the field and 92% from the line, and won two of the games with buzzer beaters.  That’s not a typo – 91% from the field in those four games.

Laettner’s NCAA Tournament records of 23 games played and 407 total points seem unbreakable. 23 games is almost literally unbreakable; 24 games is the maximum possible over four years (excepting the dreaded play-in games) unless the tournament expands. And anyone good enough to score 407 points would never stay four years now. So I think Laettner’s record will stand forever.

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

Tim Duncan is probably the greatest defensive player in ACC history.  Him or Ralph Sampson, I guess.  Duncan, Sampson, Tree Rollins, and Shelden Williams, in that order, rank 1-2-3-5 in career blocks and 2-3-4-5 in career rebounds.

We associate Duncan with Randolph Childress, but they overlapped for only two seasons in 1994 and 1995.  1995 was the year for them to do something special if they were going to, and with their ACC Tournament performance, I suppose you could say they did.  I remember their loss to Oklahoma State in the Sweet 16 and how surprised I was.  But looking back, I shouldn’t have been that surprised.  Wake had Childress and Duncan, which is a lot, but not much else.  Tony Rutland, Ricky Peral, Jerry Braswell, Rusty LaRue, and Scooter Banks.  Rutland and Banks were okay I guess, but that’s not a lot of talent.  And they got a bit unlucky in their tournament draw; Oklahoma State was an underseeded #4.  According to the Simple Rating System on sports-reference.com, the Cowboys were the seventh-best team in the country.  I think I was just disappointed when Wake lost because I really enjoyed watching that team play.

What strikes me about Duncan’s record is how good the Deacs were in 1996 and 1997 considering the weak talent surrounding him.  Wake went 11-5 and 12-4 in the ACC and finished 9^th in the AP poll both years.  Without Duncan, that’s a lower division ACC team.  I’m trying to think of another instance where one player elevated a team that much.  Len Bias, as great as he was, wasn’t able to lift his teams to the Top 10.  In 1998, without Duncan, the Deacs dropped from 24-7/11-5 to 16-14/7-9.  I think that’s about right; Duncan was worth 8 extra wins by himself. Duncan was first team All-America and ACC Player of the Year both years, and was consensus National Player of the Year as a senior.

Duncan’s 1997 rebounds per game average of 14.74 had not been equaled since in NCAA Division I – until Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe pulled down 15.2 in 2022.

In the past 35 years, roughly corresponding to the Mike Krzyzewski era at Duke but leaving out his first few years when they weren’t very good, here are the best records I could find against Coach K’s Duke teams:

• Tim Duncan, 8-1 against Duke in his career (1994-1997)
• Randoph Childress, 7-2 against Duke in his career (1991, 1993-1995)
• Jeff McInnis, 6-0 against Duke in his career (1994-1996)
• Tyler Hansbrough/Danny Green, 6-2 against Duke in their career (2006-2009)
• Honorable mention, Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace, 4-0 against Duke in their career (1994-1995)

Duncan, Hansbrough/Green, and McInnis never lost at Cameron.  So far as I can tell, they are the only players of significance in this era who can say that (not counting Stackhouse and Wallace who played only two games).  Notice that most of these good records happened during the mid-1990s lean years, the forgettable era between the Laettner/Hurley/Grant Hill teams and the Battier/Brand teams.  These were the Blue Devils of Chris Collins, Jeff Capel, Greg Newton, Ricky Price, Steve Wojciechowski, and, of course, Pete Gaudet. 

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

Phil Ford was the quintessential Carolina basketball player. It’s hard to put into words what I mean by that, but perhaps those of you who watched him will understand. He was Dean Smith Carolina basketball personified. He knew instinctively what Dean wanted and, because a) he was so good and b) he always had the ball in his hands, he just made it happen. It is difficult to do justice to the skill and even artistry with which he orchestrated the action on the floor. His mastery of the Four Corners and the sense of dread and futility it created among opposing teams is one of the enduring narratives of ACC basketball history, as is his tour de force performance in the 1975 ACC Tournament, in which the Tar Heels finally stopped the irresistible force that was David Thompson. I’ve often thought that if time of possession by a player were a statistic in basketball, then Ford would be the all-time leader. Phil Ford, the point guard par excellence.

But while he is the quintessential Carolina player, is he the best player?  I have no data to support this, but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that he is.  Influencing that opinion is a reaction against the thoughtless invocation of Michael Jordan as the greatest by casual fans who haven’t considered the question carefully and are conflating Jordan’s NBA career with his college career.  The question is further complicated by Tyler Hansbrough and Lennie Rosenbluth who have cases of their own.  But I’ve already staked out my position with regard to Hansbrough and Rosenbluth, and I’m sticking to it.

But as great as Ford was, I think Michael Jordan was better.  It almost seems impossible, but Jordan is now actually underrated as a college player.  The pendulum has swung too far and we have lost sight of how great he actually was in college.

In many ways, this debate comes down to career value vs. peak value.  Had Jordan played a fourth year, it would be easy; Jordan would be regarded as one of the greatest players in the history of college basketball and the debate would be about whether he is #1 on this list or #2.  But he didn’t.  Ford played four years, and Jordan played three.  Ford is on all kinds of all-time leaderboards, and Jordan isn’t.  Ford made All-America three times, Jordan “only” twice. 

But there are two things for me that put Jordan over the top.  One, he had two years that in my opinion were better than Ford’s best year.  Jordan in 1984 was National Player of the Year, and it wasn’t close.  He dominated the voting over some great players – Wayman Tisdale, Patrick Ewing, Chris Mullin, and teammate Sam Perkins.  Ford’s best year was his senior year of 1978.  He won the Wooden Award in a very close vote over Marquette’s Butch Lee, but Lee won the AP and UPI Awards by a healthy margin.  Ford in fact finished third in the UPI balloting behind Lee and Larry Bird.  The data suggest that Ford and Lee were regarded as the two best players in the country in a very close competition, with a slight edge perhaps going to Lee.  So when we compare Jordan 1984 to Ford 1978, advantage Jordan.

But what about Jordan’s 1983?  If you look at the voting totals, it’s clear that Jordan was regarded as the second-best player in the country to Ralph Sampson.  In every award for which we have voting totals – AP Player of the Year, UPI Player of the Year, Wooden Award, UPI All-America – Jordan finished second to Sampson.  Jordan (61 votes) darn near won the ACC Player of the Year over Sampson (75 votes).  Folks, we’re talking Ralph Sampson here.  The senior year of one of the greatest players in the history of college basketball.  In context, I think Jordan’s 1983 year was just as impressive, if not better, than Ford’s best year of 1978.  Finishing second to Ralph Sampson is more impressive than finishing in a tie with Butch Lee.

The second factor in Jordan’s favor is this.  Ford did better nationally than he did with ACC voters, and I can’t shake the sense that there is a little bit of the Bobby Hurley/Kenny Smith effect going on here.  In other words, highly publicized point guards of blue blood programs who are fawned over by national writers, but whom ACC voters see for who they are.  Ford was ACC Player of the Year as a senior, and by a wide margin.  But as a junior, he finished a distant second to Rod Griffin.  So if we match them up, both Jordan and Ford had a year where they ran away with ACC POY.  But in their second-best years, Jordan finished a close second to one of the all-time greats in college basketball; Ford finished a distant second to Rod Griffin. 

Now I do have to point out that Ford was a much better ACC Tournament performer than Jordan.  Jordan was first team All-Tournament only once; Ford made it three times and was Most Outstanding Player as a freshman, when he led the Tar Heels to an electrifying win in the final over David Thompson and NC State.

NCAA Tournament performance?  I’d call it a wash.  I think you’d have to say that both players, on the whole, were a little bit disappointing in that regard, in spite of Jordan’s iconic moment in 1982.  Ford’s 1977 team made a run to the national final. He had a mix of good and bad games.  The other teams he played on did nothing in the tournament.  Jordan’s last two teams both disappointed in the tournament.  The 1984 loss to Indiana in the Sweet 16 ranks as one of the all-time disappointing endings for any team, anywhere.  Jordan famously fouled out of that game and finished his college career sitting on the bench.

It really comes down to the fact that I think Jordan’s best was better than Ford’s best, and I don’t think Ford’s extra year and ACC Tournament performance is enough to make up for that.  I can’t quite get past Ford’s performance in ACC POY voting.  If you’re one of the five best players in ACC history, you should not be losing 89-31 to Rod Griffin, with all due respect to Griffin, whom I recognize as a historically underrated player.

Few players have fallen as far, as fast, as Ford.  He was NBA Rookie of the Year and second-team All-NBA in 1979.  Ford and Otis Birdsong appeared to give the Kansas City Kings a young backcourt they could build around.  Ford continued to play at a very high level in his second and third years.  In his last 24 games in 1981, Ford averaged 24 points and 9 assists on 53% from the field and 85% from the line.  He was at the height of his powers.  Then, on February 22, 1981, he was inadvertently poked in the eye by World B. Free.  Expected to return quickly, Ford was unable to shake the double vision that he was experiencing, and he missed the rest of the season – a season that saw the Kings, without Ford, make an unexpected run to the Western Conference finals.

And, in short, Ford was never a good player again.  He returned to the Kings the next season, but he wasn’t the same player.  Alcoholism certainly played a role, and maybe that was the sole cause; I haven’t been able to find a detailed account of what happened.  In any case, within a few years, he was out of the league.

2003 Top 50 List: Not eligible

Dan Collins List: Yes

There is a credible argument that Tyler Hansbrough is the greatest player in ACC history.  Let’s see… the only player in ACC history to make first team All-ACC four times; the ACC’s all-time leading scorer; one of only two players (the other is Mike Gminski) in the Top 10 in ACC career scoring and rebounding; three-time Consensus first team All-American; only player in ACC history to make first or second team All-American four times; ACC Player of the Year; ACC Tournament Most Outstanding Player; two-time ACC Tournament champion; 2009 national champion; 124-22 record.  I guess it’s obvious that I don’t think Hansbrough is actually the best player in ACC history, but I’m saying you can argue that and you would have a case.

I’ve been reflecting on what made Hansbrough so good.  He wasn’t an incredible athlete; he didn’t have great post moves.  He wasn’t an unskilled player – he did have a good shooting touch for a big man – but he wasn’t Nikola Jokic or Draymond Green out there either.  My first observation about the secret to Hansbrough’s success is that he turned drawing fouls into a huge competitive advantage – probably better than anyone else in the history of college basketball. 

I knew he got to the line a lot, but when you look at the numbers, it’s really amazing.  He is the all-time NCAA leader in free throws made.  By a lot.  The Top 10:

• Hansbrough, 982
• Dickie Hemric, Wake Forest, 905
• Pete Maravich, LSU, 893
• Oscar Robertson, Cincinnati, 869
• Caleb Green, Oral Roberts, 852
• Don Schlundt, Indiana, 826
• Troy Bell, Boston College, 810
• Bill Bradley, Princeton, 791
• Alonzo Mourning, Georgetown, 771
• Derrick Chievous, Missouri, 764

The value to his team from him getting to the line can hardly be overstated.  Let’s try to quantify it.  In 2008, Hansbrough averaged 9.7 free throw attempts per game.  Let’s round it to 10 per game to simplify the calculations.  And then let’s assume that they were all two-shot fouls, again to simplify the calculations.  That means that five possessions per game for the Tar Heels were ending with Hansbrough going to the line for two shots.

He shot 80.6% from the line.  So that means that, on average, he would score 2 * .806 = 1.612 points per possession on a 2-shot foul.  How good is that?  Well, the best offense in the country is typically around 1.2 points per possession.  So for each of those five possessions, the Tar Heels were 0.4 points better than the best offense in the country.  That comes out to +2 points per game better than the best offense in the country – just because of Hansbrough’s trips to the line.

In reflecting on Hansbrough’s success more generally, I think he has a lot to teach us about excellence in college basketball, and how it can be achieved.  In particular, I assert that Hansbrough achieved greatness by taking his biggest strength and hyper-developing it, beyond any reasonable expectation of success.  In other words, he kept doubling down on what he was already good at, rather than focusing on expanding his game.

That’s not to say that he didn’t expand his game at all. He did.  But the cornerstone of his success was his ability to use his size and strength around the basket, and what he did was to get more out of that than seemed possible.  I’m sure Hansbrough had people along the way tell him, son, you can only take that bull-in-a-china-shop thing so far.  You need to expand your game, improve your perimeter shot, work on your handle, become a better passer, etc.  But he didn’t take that approach.  Instead, he said hey, I’m already really good at what I do, but I’m going to keep getting better at it.  I’m good at putting my head down and getting to the line, but what if I get to the line more than anyone else in the history of college basketball?  I’m strong, but I’ll get stronger. I’m a good free throw shooter, but I’ll become a great one.  I’m a good offensive rebounder, but I’ll become a great one.

This, then, is the basketball genius of Tyler Hansbrough: his committed, confident, focused single-mindedness.  He knew exactly who he was as a player.  He kept the game simple.  He never tried to be what he wasn’t.  He didn’t fret about his weaknesses; he consolidated his strengths.  Basketball is a sport that rewards that.  If you want to be a great basketball player, develop one thing that nobody can stop, and keep developing it.  It might take you all the way to the top.

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

When you first get to school, you’d end up in Rat League [pickup games]. It was make it, take it. You played to 10 baskets. It was kind of routine that if you got up against Heyman’s team, you’d go 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 and then you’d sit down. Heyman was the best player ever at Duke… there was no more dominant force than Heyman. – Jack Marin in Game of My Life by Alwyn Featherston

Art Heyman was the best of the early generation of Yankees who came down south to play in the ACC.  Heyman was the center of a fierce recruiting battle between North Carolina’s Frank McGuire and new Duke head coach Vic Bubas.  Bubas’ landing of Heyman (who had previously committed to North Carolina) catapulted the Blue Devils into national prominence and ignited their run of excellence in the 1960s.  In Heyman’s senior season, the Blue Devils reached the Final Four and a #2 national ranking.  He was ACC Player of the Year, Consensus National Player of the Year, ACC Tournament Most Outstanding Player, and NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player.  He made first team All-ACC three times.

Heyman’s jersey wasn’t retired at Duke until 1990. This was ridiculous, and Heyman, a brash, fiery, competitive player, resented it. There were numerous fights and confrontations during his career, including a well-known fight with North Carolina players during a game in 1961.  But through it all, he managed to stay eligible and on the court, and continued to dominate.  He was one year behind Len Chappell, and the two of them had some tremendous battles.  Here are the results of their five head-to-head matchups:

And how’s this for a Senior Day?  Heyman had 40 points and 24 rebounds to lead Duke to a 106-91 trouncing of North Carolina, completing a perfect ACC regular season for the Blue Devils.

Heyman was named Most Outstanding Player of the NCAA Tournament in 1963 despite the fact that the Blue Devils lost in the semifinal.  This was fairly common at the time.  A player from a non-winning team received the award in 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, and 1971.  Since 1971, the only non-winning player to be MOP is Akeem Olajuwon in 1983.  It’s hard to say exactly why this changed, although dropping the third-place game in the Final Four probably has something to do with it.  Of course, it’s perfectly sensible that the best player in the tournament might not have been on the winning team, and the voters in the 1950s and 1960s clearly had no compunction about saying that, but at some point it became accepted practice to pick a player from the winning team.  It would be interesting to look back at the tournaments since 1971 and figure out who the real MOP was.  But that’s a project for another day.

2003 Top 50 List: Not eligible

Dan Collins List: Yes

I hated him too, but he was damn good.  Two-time ACC Player of the Year.  Two-time ACC Tournament Most Outstanding Player.  National Player of the Year as a senior, runner-up as a junior.  Second-leading scorer all time (to Tyler Hansbrough) in the ACC.  All-time leader in three-pointers made, both single-season and career.  Career free throw percentage leader.  That’s a Top 10 player.

His senior year was flat out one of the greatest seasons in ACC history.  He averaged 27 points with the True Shooting Percentage of 63%.  He averaged 29.4 in ACC games.  There is a strong case for that as the greatest offensive season in ACC history.  Remember how he did it?  After three years of bombing threes with incredible proficiency, he suddenly added a floor game and starting driving.  He shot nearly as many twos as threes, and he got to the line, and he made them all, or at least it seemed that way.

What I remember most are the daggers.  More than any player I can remember, he hit daggers.  You were hanging around, keeping it close, trying to make a run late in the game, and then Boom.  Boom.  Boom.  You’re done.  Good night.

If there’s anything you can hold against Redick, it’s that he laid some eggs in the NCAA Tournament.  In both 2005 and 2006, Duke was a #1 seed after winning the ACC Tournament.  In both years, they were upset in the Sweet 16, and Redick shot 4-for-14 and 3-for-18 respectively in those games.  For his career, he played in six games in the Sweet 16 or later, and he shot 28% in those six games.  He did not have a signature performance in a big NCAA Tournament game.

But he sure had some in the ACC Tournament.  He is, in fact, the tournament’s all-time leading scorer.  As a freshman in 2003, Redick scored 23 points in the last 10 minutes to lead the Blue Devils to a comeback win in the final against NC State.  And that’s not one of the two years that he was Most Outstanding Player.  If one were making an All-Time All-ACC Tournament team, Redick would be on it. It’s an interesting fact (courtesy of the Greenville (SC) News of March 17, 2003) that in that 2003 tournament, the votes for Tournament MOP had to be submitted with four minutes left in the final. Redick scored 13 points in those last four minutes. Had the votes been submitted after the game, Redick would probably be the only three-time ACC Tournament MOP.

I think Redick, as good as he was, was underestimated.  He kept surprising you by getting better when you figured he had peaked.  He was more athletic than you think, but he didn’t overwhelm anyone with his size or quickness.  So there was a tendency to think, how much better can a one-dimensional, not-all-that-athletic shooter get?  The same thing happened in the NBA.  It took him several years to really get his career going, and a lot of people wrote him off as someone who would never be more than a bit player.  But he figured things out.  He knew what he was good at, he understood how the games were called, he made moving without the ball a science, and he worked hard to develop his game to maximize what he did well.