Roy Face and the 1959 Pirates

Roy Face in 1959 went 18-1 as a reliever – the best single-season W-L% of all time for a pitcher with more than 12 decisions.  Moreover, he did this for a mediocre Pirates team that went 78-76.  How in the world did this happen?

First off, let’s give the man some credit – he pitched well.  He had a 2.70 ERA and a 142 ERA+.  But in 1962, he had a 1.88 ERA and went 8-7.  In 1960 he had a 2.90 ERA and went 10-8.  In 1967 he had a 2.42 ERA and went 7-5.  So obviously the stars aligned somehow in 1959.

For a moment, it’s worth reminding ourselves how relievers get decisions.  A reliever who enters a game with his team ahead or behind usually does not get a decision.  Most of the time, he gets a decision only if the lead changes while he is in the game (or as a result of runners he is responsible for after leaving the game) and that lead is not relinquished.  For a modern closer who enters the game only in a save situation, a decision is possible only if he blows the save.  For a reliever who comes into a game trailing, a decision is possible only if his offense comes back and ties the game, regardless of how well he pitches. 

The situation where a reliever has a good chance of getting a decision is a tie game.  In a tie game, any run makes the current pitchers the pitchers of record.  So the way for a reliever to pile up decisions is to enter lots of tie games.

Now, to come back to Roy Face in 1959.  Looking at his game log, it really comes down to three things:

  1. He entered a lot of tie games and pitched extremely well in those games.
  2. He blew a lot of saves, creating a lot of W/L opportunities for himself.
  3. He was the beneficiary of incredible, dramatic run support from his offense.

Tie Games

Face entered 12 tie games.  In 2 of those games, he inherited runners who later scored, and Face did not get a decision.  In the other 10 games, he entered with nobody on base.  In those games, he went 10-0.  Think about that.  Ten times, Roy Face came into a tie ballgame with nobody on base.  All ten times, Roy Face got the win.  In seven of the ten, he did not give up a run, and just kept pitching until the Pirates scored.  In the other 3 games, Face gave up one run and the lead, and would have gotten a loss had the Pirates not scored.  All 3 times, the Pirates scored 2 runs in the bottom of the inning to walk it off and give Face the win.

Save Situations

Roy Face blew 9 saves in 19 opportunities in 1959 – a terrible percentage. In fact, this is one of only 19 seasons in MLB history in which a reliever has had a save percentage less than 53% with at least 18 opportunities. His ERA in his 19 save opportunities was 5.56.  And somehow, in those 9 blown save games, he escaped with a 4-1 record.  Here’s a rundown:

  • April 24 – entered bottom of 7th with a one-run lead.  Gave up 2 runs in the 8th and was in line for a loss.  Pirates scored 4 in the 9th to win the game.  Face gets the win.
  • May 12 – entered bottom of 8th with a one-run lead.  Allowed an inherited runner to score and tie the game.  No decision.
  • May 14 – entered bottom of 8th with a three run lead and 2 runners on.  Allowed those 2 runs to score, plus one of his own, tie game.  Dick Stuart homered in the 9th to win the game for the Pirates.  Face gets the win.
  • June 11 – entered top of 8th with a two run lead and 2 runners on.  Allowed those 2 runs to score, plus one of his own and was in line for a loss.  Pirates put up 5 in the bottom of the 8th.  Face gets the win.
  • July 12 (game 1) – entered top of 8th with a one run lead and 2 runners on.  Got out of that jam, but allowed the tying run to score in the 9th.  Pirates won in the bottom of the 10th.  Face gets the win.
  • July 12 (game 2) – entered top of 9th with a one run lead and 1 runner on.  Allowed that run to score, plus one of his own, was removed from the game, was in line for a loss.  Pirates tied it in the 9th, taking Face off the hook.  No decision.
  • July 30 – entered bottom of 7th with a one run lead and nobody on.  Gave up the tying run in the 8th.  Pirates eventually won in 12.  No decision.
  • August 1 – entered bottom of 7th with a one run lead and two on.  Allowed both runs to score, plus 3 of his own.  Got a no decision because the inherited runners were the responsibility of the prior reliever.
  • September 11 (game 1) – entered bottom of 8th with a one run lead and one on.  Got out of that, but his luck finally ran out in the bottom of the 9th.  Gave up 2 runs, the Dodgers walked it off, and Face, who had been 17-0, got his first and only L of the season.

Other Wins

Face won 3 games where he came into a game the Pirates were trailing:

  • May 13 – entered bottom of 7th, Pirates down one.  Pirates scored 3 in the 8th to win.
  • August 9 – entered bottom of 8th, Pirates down one.  Gave up an unearned run in the 8th.  Pirates scored 2 in the 9th to tie, and 2 more in the 10th to win.
  • August 23 (game 2) – entered top of 9th, Pirates down one.  Pirates scored one in the 9th to tie, one in the 10th to win.

The only win we haven’t covered is from May 31 (game 2).  Face was awarded the win under rule 9.17(b) – he was the most effective reliever in a game in which the starter did not go 5 innings.

What Does All This Tell Us About The 1959 Pirates?

The 1959 Pirates were an unremarkable team in most respects.  They finished 4th out of 8 NL teams, 10 games behind the pennant-winning Dodgers.  They scored 651 runs and allowed 680 on the season.  They had a poor offense overall; their total of 651 runs was 6th in the NL.  But they were quite possibly the greatest clutch hitting team the game has ever seen.  Here are some of their records:

All-Time Single Season Walk-Off Wins, Team:

  • 1 (tie): 1959 Pirates – 17 (out of 78 total wins)
  • 1 (tie): 1977 Pirates – 17

Keep in mind that the 1977 Pirates played 162 games and they were actually good (96-66).

All-Time Single Season Extra Inning Wins, Team:

  • 1: 1959 Pirates – 19
  • 2(tie): 1988 Expos – 18
  • 2(tie): 1949 Indians – 18

All-Time Single Season Winning Percentage in Extra-Inning Games, Team (min. 16 games):

  1. 1949 Indians, 18-1, .947
  2. 1959 Pirates, 19-2, .905

1959 Pirates Team OPS, by Inning:

  • Innings 1-3: .679
  • Innings 4-6: .659
  • Innings 7-9: .755
  • Extra Innings: 1.008 (The ’59 Pirates and the ’49 Indians are the only 2 teams in history with >1.000 OPS in extra innings, min. 180 PA)

Some Individual Slash Lines for ’59 Pirates in Extra Innings:

  • Mazeroski: .529 BA/.556 OBP/.647 SLG (19 PA)
  • Stuart: .636/.667/1.182 (12 PA)
  • Groat: .625/.647/1.335 (16 PA)
  • Virdon: .556/.667/.667 (16 PA)
  • Clemente: .455/.500/.455 (12 PA)
  • Mejias: .625/.700/1.000 (10 PA)

Best Single Season W-L%, Blown Save Games (min. 5 decisions)

  • 5-1 Record: Dick Radatz 1964, Tyler Thornburg 2016
  • 4-1 Record: Roy Face 1959, Dale Murray 1975, Ron Davis 1979, Jim Mecir 2000, LaTroy Hawkins 2004, Junior Guerra 2019

Conclusion

We all know about the 1960 Pirates. That team was essentially the same as the 1959 team, plus Vinegar Bend Mizell. I wonder if, somehow, their performance in tight games in 1959 was a predictor of clutch performances to come? Or if it in some way sparked that special 1960 season? It seems like there is a good book in there somewhere – or at least some good interviews. It’s still possible; at least 8 guys from the ’59 team are still living:

  • Bill Mazeroski, age 84
  • Dick Schofield, age 85
  • Bennie Daniels, age 88
  • Bob Skinner, age 89
  • Bill Virdon, age 89
  • Dick Groat, age 90
  • Vern Law, age 90
  • Roy Face, age 92

Somebody get their stories before it’s too late.

Note: The game of July 9 does not have a complete play-by-play record, so I’m not 100% sure that the game was tied when Face entered in the 8th.  I am assuming that it was and including that game in the 12 tie games.

Jake Arrieta, GOAT

Jake Arrieta appears to be on the downside of his career. While we can’t rule out a resurgence, his ERA last year was 4.64, and he is 34 years old.

If Arrieta’s career is nearing the end, he will be remembered as an accomplished pitcher, but not a great one. From 2014 to 2017, he was excellent, peaking with his Cy Young Award in 2015. Otherwise, his career has been unremarkable. He is probably one of the 500 greatest pitchers of all time; perhaps there is an argument to put him in the top 300. Farther than that, we cannot go.

But for one calendar year – from June 21, 2015 to June 20, 2016 – Jake Arrieta was the greatest pitcher who ever lived.

GW-LIPHRERBBSOHRERABAOBPSLGOPS
3427-224013336325824851.20.159.220.221.441

Let’s analyze this as if it were a single season, and compare it to the greatest pitching seasons of all time.

The W-L record of 27-2 would be the greatest of all time for a starting pitcher. The only starting pitchers in history (not counting Al Spalding in 1875) who won 90% of their decisions were both in 1995 – Greg Maddux (19-2) and Randy Johnson (18-2).

The ERA of 1.20 would be the second lowest in the live ball era, second only to Gibson’s 1.12 in 1968. Arrieta’s is more valuable because he pitched in a much higher run-scoring context.

No pitcher with >100 IP has ever allowed fewer than 5 hits per 9 innings over a full season. Arrieta’s was 4.99.

Only one starting pitcher in the live ball era has had a WHIP (W + H/IP) of less than 0.8 – Pedro Martinez in 2000 with a 0.737. Arrieta’s was 0.796.

Only 6 pitchers since World War II have pitched over 200 innings and allowed 5 or fewer HRs. Arrieta allowed 5.

Arrieta’s OPS allowed of .441 would be by far the lowest all-time for a pitcher with at least 85 innings pitched. There are only 4 starting pitcher seasons (>180 IP) with an OPS allowed of less than .500:

  • Tiant 1968 (.495)
  • Maddux 1995 (.482)
  • Martinez 2000 (.473)
  • Gibson 1968 (.469)

The lowest slugging % allowed in a season with at least 150 IP in the live ball era is Gibson in 1968 with .236. Arrieta’s was .221.

Maybe, just maybe, Pedro in 2000 was better, given that he pitched in a much higher run-scoring context. Otherwise, I submit to you that Arrieta’s “season” is the greatest pitching season of all time.

NCAA All-Americans, Reimagined, Part 4: The 2010s

This is the fourth and final entry in this series, in which I am recreating the All-American teams as they would have been if all (US-based) players went to college for 4 years. Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 focused on the 1970s/1980s, 1990s, and 2000s respectively. In Part 4, we’ll focus on the 2010s. 

As in previous posts, NBA players are in red and National Players of the Year (Naismith) are in bold.

2009-10

First Team

ActualModified
Sherron CollinsKevin Durant
Wesley JohnsonKevin Love
Scottie ReynoldsDerrick Rose
Evan TurnerBrook Lopez
John WallStephen Curry

Second Team

ActualModified
Cole AldrichRussell Westbrook
James AndersonMichael Beasley
DeMarcus CousinsJames Harden
Luke HarangodyDejuan Blair
Jon ScheyerDJ Augustin
Greivis VasquezEvan Turner

It was not a difficult call to push all the First Teamers down in favor of this five. Keep in mind too, Blake Griffin was injured, so I left him off. Player of the Year was a very tough call between “senior” Kevin Durant and “senior” Steph Curry, but I went with Durant. The only Actual player who remains on the team at all is Player of the Year Evan Turner.

2010-11

First Team

ActualModified
Jimmer FredetteRussell Westbrook
JaJuan JohnsonKevin Love
Nolan SmithDerrick Rose
Jared SullingerBlake Griffin
Kemba WalkerJames Harden

Second Team

ActualModified
Kenneth FariedEvan Turner
Jordan HamiltonDejuan Blair
Ben HansbroughMichael Beasley
Kawhi LeonardJimmer Fredette
Marcus MorrisJohn Wall
Jordan TaylorDeMarcus Cousins
Derrick WilliamsJeff Teague

Again, not a difficult call here to push down all five First Teamers. Jimmer Fredette was National POY, and I love Jimmer, but are you keeping him over one of the five I have listed? I know a lot of these teams are great, but this has to be one of the best, with 4 “seniors” (Westbrook, Love, Rose, and Harden) and “junior” Griffin. I went with Harden as National POY, but all of the five have a case. I hated to leave Michael Beasley off First Team, but there just isn’t a spot. Jeff Teague sneaks onto Second Team in his “senior” year. Couldn’t find a spot for DeAndre Jordan or Eric Gordon.

2011-12

First Team

ActualModified
Anthony DavisAnthony Davis
Draymond GreenJohn Wall
Doug McDermottBlake Griffin
Thomas RobinsonThomas Robinson
Jared SullingerDeMarcus Cousins

Second Team

ActualModified
Isaiah CanaanPaul George
Marcus DenmonKyrie Irving
Kevin JonesGreg Monroe
Michael Kidd-GilchristDraymond Green
Tyler ZellerKemba Walker

I didn’t retain many freshman First Teamers, but Davis is an exception. Thomas Robinson wasn’t much of an NBA player, but in 2012 he was right there with Davis. Griffin is an easy choice as player of the year. “Juniors” John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins round out the First Team. Second Team is not bad either with George, Irving, Monroe, and Kemba. Couldn’t find a spot for DeMar Derozan.

2012-13

First Team

ActualModified
Trey BurkeKyrie Irving
Doug McDermottAnthony Davis
Victor OladipoKawhi Leonard
Kelly OlynykJohn Wall
Otto PorterDeMarcus Cousins

Second Team

ActualModified
Ben McLemoreJared Sullinger
Mason PlumleeTrey Burke
Marcus SmartThomas Robinson
Jeff WitheyOtto Porter
Cody ZellerVictor Oladipo

This was a tough call. Burke, Oladipo, and Porter were outstanding, and possibly good enough to stay on First Team. But ultimately I can’t justify putting them ahead of the guys I listed. Davis would have been a sophomore; Kyrie would have been a junior; Leonard, Wall, and Cousins seniors. No idea whom to select as Player of the Year; I’m going with Cousins more or less at random.

2013-14

First Team

ActualModified
Nick JohnsonAnthony Davis
Doug McDermottDoug McDermott
Shabazz NapierKyrie Irving
Jabari ParkerAndre Drummond
Russ SmithTrey Burke

Second Team

ActualModified
Cleanthony EarlyVictor Oladipo
C. J. FairBradley Beal
Sean KilpatrickJared Sullinger
Nik StauskasOtto Porter
T. J. WarrenTristan Thompson
Andrew WigginsJabari Parker

As often happens, the guys who got bumped last year (Burke, McDermott, Oladipo) reappear this year, and this time Burke and McDermott get that First Team spot. They are joined by Davis, Irving, and Andre Drummond. Bradley Beal and Tristan Thompson get a spot on Second Team. Player of the Year was between “junior” Davis and “senior” Irving; tough call but I’m going with AD.

2014-15

First Team

ActualModified
Willie Cauley-SteinAndre Drummond
Jerian GrantAnthony Davis
Frank KaminskyFrank Kaminsky
Jahlil OkaforTrey Burke
D’Angelo RussellBradley Beal

Second Team

ActualModified
Malcolm BrogdonOtto Porter
Bobby PortisMichael Kidd-Gilchrist
Karl-Anthony TownsCody Zeller
Seth TuttleJabari Parker
Kyle WiltjerJahlil Okafor
Delon WrightAndrew Wiggins

Davis becomes a two-time National Player of the Year. Drummond and Burke make First Team for the second time, and they are joined by Bradley Beal. Frank Kaminsky deservedly hangs onto a First Team spot. A few guys who made Actual Second Team in previous years (Kidd-Gilchrist, Zeller, Wiggins) get a spot on the hypothetical Second Team this year.

2015-16

First Team

ActualModified
Malcolm BrogdonWillie Cauley-Stein
Buddy HieldBuddy Hield
Brice JohnsonAndrew Wiggins
Ben SimmonsKarl-Anthony Towns
Tyler UlisJabari Parker
Denzel ValentineD’Angelo Russell

Second Team

ActualModified
Kris DunnDenzel Valentine
Perry EllisJahlil Okafor
Georges NiangT. J. Warren
Jakob PöltlMalcolm Brogdon
Jarrod UthoffMarcus Smart

Once again, no idea who would have won Player of the Year from this group. I’m going to give it to Towns, because he was the best of these players in the NBA in 2015-16. But maybe Buddy Hield would have held on. TJ Warren, Denzel Valentine, and Marcus Smart get Second Team spots in their “senior” years.

2016-17

First Team

ActualModified
Lonzo BallAndrew Wiggins
Josh HartKarl-Anthony Towns
Justin JacksonJabari Parker
Frank Mason IIIFrank Mason III
Caleb SwaniganD’Angelo Russell

Second Team

ActualModified
Dillon BrooksJosh Hart
Luke KennardAaron Gordon
Malik MonkDevin Booker
Johnathan MotleyZach LaVine
Nigel Williams-GossMyles Turner

I went with Towns as POY last year, so I have to stick with him. Wiggins, Parker, and Russell are also repeats from last year. Frank Mason hangs onto a First Team spot. Second Team features a bunch of good young NBA players, led by Devin Booker and Myles Turner. Also note that Ben Simmons was injured this year, so I left him out.

Speaking of injuries, I’m not sure what to do with Joel Embiid. He was a freshman in 2013-14; missed 2015 and 2016 with injuries; played 31 games in 2017 and was a stud. Call him an honorable mention.

2017-18

First Team

ActualModified
Deandre AytonD’Angelo Russell
Marvin Bagley IIIKarl-Anthony Towns
Jalen BrunsonBen Simmons
Devonte’ GrahamLonzo Ball
Trae YoungMyles Turner

Second Team

ActualModified
Keita Bates-DiopJayson Tatum
Trevon BluiettDevin Booker
Miles BridgesJalen Brunson
Jevon CarterTrae Young
Keenan EvansJakob Pöltl
Jock LandaleDonovan Mitchell

Karl-Anthony Towns becomes the fourth player to be National Player of the Year three times, along with Bill Walton, David Thompson, and hypothetical LeBron James. Ben Simmons leaps onto First Team. Brunson and Trae Young hang onto Second Team spots.

2018-19

First Team

ActualModified
RJ BarrettBen Simmons
Rui HachimuraLonzo Ball
Ja MorantJayson Tatum
Grant WilliamsTrae Young
Zion WilliamsonZion Williamson

Second Team

ActualModified
Jarrett CulverGrant Williams
Carsen EdwardsDonovan Mitchell
Ethan HappJalen Brunson
Markus HowardBam Adebayo
Cassius WinstonJamal Murray

This is a really interesting team. You have to keep Zion on there. Simmons, Ball, Tatum, and Trae Young round out the First Team. Who is the Player of the Year? Could one of those three have topped Zion? I’m going with Simmons.

I started working on this because I hoped it would shed some light on how to compare college basketball players from different eras. In particular, how should I regard a modern player who makes First Team All-American, compared to a player from the ’60s or ’70s? Are those equivalent accomplishments? I think the clear answer is, they are not. Many, perhaps most, modern All-Americans would not have made the team if they were playing against the best players in their age group.

NCAA All-Americans Reimagined, Part 3: the 2000s

In this series, I am recreating the All-American teams as they would have been if all (US-based) players went to college for 4 years. Part 1 and Part 2 focused on the 1970s/1980s and 1990s respectively. In Part 3, we’ll focus on the 2000s. During this decade, early entry (or skipping college altogether) continued to grow in popularity. While I don’t have a comprehensive list of players who turned pro early or skipped college altogether, one way to see the growth is to look at the number of NBA players under the age of 22, by season:

Season# of NBA Players Under Age 22
1992-933
1993-944
1994-956
1995-9610
1996-9715
1997-9819
1998-9922
1999-0023
2000-0131
2001-0241
2002-0334
2003-0430
2004-0539
2005-0650
2006-0747
2007-0842
2008-0939

The growing number of college age players in the NBA makes the task of reassessing the All-American teams that much harder. Each season, there are tens of players to consider. But I did my best. So here we go. I’m changing my color scheme a bit; in this post, NBA players in are red and Naismith Player of the Year Award winners are in bold.

1999-2000

First Team

ActualModified
Chris CarrawellElton Brand
Marcus FizerKobe Bryant
A. J. GuytonMike Bibby
Kenyon MartinKenyon Martin
Chris MihmSteve Francis
Troy MurphyRichard Hamilton

Second Team

ActualModified
Courtney AlexanderBaron Davis
Shane BattierA.J. Guyton
Mateen CleavesMarcus Fizer
Scoonie PennLamar Odom
Morris PetersonRon Artest
Stromile SwiftTracy McGrady

Kobe, in his “senior” season, is a shoo-in for Player of the Year. Then you have Elton Brand, the year after he actually won National POY; Mike Bibby and Rip Hamilton, who were first teamers the year before; and Steve Francis, who was a second teamer the year before. Kenyon Martin stays on first team, Guyton and Carrawell get bumped to second team, and everybody else is bumped entirely. Second team features 4 twenty-year olds who were already solid NBA players in Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, Ron Artest/Metta World Peace, and Tracy McGrady. I just don’t see Carrawell, Murphy, or Chris Mihm making it over those guys.

2000-01

First Team

ActualModified
Shane BattierShane Battier
Joseph ForteElton Brand
Casey JacobsenTracy McGrady
Troy MurphyLamar Odom
Jason WilliamsBaron Davis

Second Team

ActualModified
Troy BellRon Artest
Michael BradleyChris Mihm
Tayshaun PrinceMarcus Fizer
Jason RichardsonJason Williams
Jamaal TinsleyLarry Hughes

The first thing to say here is that if Brand had actually been playing in this his “senior” year, that Duke team would have been the greatest team of all time. Battier won National POY and I kept him on First Team, joined by Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, McGrady, and Brand, all “seniors” except for the junior Odom. TMac gets the nod as POY. Chris Mihm and Marcus Fizer get some love after getting bumped last year, and Larry Hughes sneaks onto Second Team. Joseph Forte, sorry dude, you had a whale of a year but I don’t see you making it as a sophomore over these seniors.

2001-02

First Team

ActualModified
Dan DickauLamar Odom
Juan DixonJuan Dixon
Drew GoodenDrew Gooden
Steve LoganTroy Murphy
Jason WilliamsJason Williams

Second Team

ActualModified
Sam ClancyJoseph Forte
Mike Dunleavy, Jr.Stromile Swift
Casey JacobsenMike Miller
Jared JeffriesJason Richardson
David WestRashard Lewis

2002 and 2003 represent a bit of a lull in the incredible young talent in the NBA. It’s the period between Kobe/TMac and LeBron/Carmelo. So in 2002, I kept three of the first teamers in place. Jason Williams loses his POY to Lamar Odom, and Troy Murphy finally gets a well-deserved spot on First Team. Second Team is a clean sweep of NBA players, including Forte, with some redemption from getting bumped the year before.

2002-03

First Team

ActualModified
Nick CollisonJoseph Forte
T. J. FordGilbert Arenas
Josh HowardJay Williams
Dwayne WadeDrew Gooden
David WestJason Richardson

Second Team

ActualModified
Carmelo AnthonyT.J. Ford
Troy BellDavid West
Jason GardnerJosh Howard
Kyle KorverDwayne Wade
Hollis PriceMike Dunleavy

Jay Williams finally gets that National POY award. He is joined on First Team by four other NBA players. Most of the actual First Teamers get bumped to Second Team.

2003-04

First Team

ActualModified
Andre EmmettCarmelo Anthony
Ryan GomesDwayne Wade
Jameer NelsonJameer Nelson
Emeka OkaforEmeka Okafor
Lawrence RobertsLeBron James

Second Team

ActualModified
Josh ChildressChris Bosh
Devin HarrisChris Kaman
Julius HodgeT.J. Ford
Luke JacksonLawrence Roberts
Blake SteppZach Randolph

LeBron is here. I was tempted to give him National POY four times, but I think senior Dwayne Wade was better than freshman LeBron. Sophomore Carmelo is on First Team as well, along with two college players who stayed in Jameer Nelson and Emeka Okafor.

2004-05

First Team

ActualModified
Andrew BogutAndrew Bogut
Dee BrownCarmelo Anthony
Chris PaulEmeka Okafor
J. J. RedickTyson Chandler
Wayne SimienDwight Howard
Hakim WarrickLeBron James

Second Team

ActualModified
Ike DioguChris Paul
Luther HeadJ. J. Redick
Sean MayWayne Simien
Salim StoudamireLuol Deng
Deron WilliamsT.J. Ford

I think this might be my favorite team. LeBron, Tyson Chandler, Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Carmelo, and Andrew Bogut. It sounds like an NBA All-Star Team. Poor Dee Brown and Hakim Warrick never had a chance.

2005-06

First Team

ActualModified
Randy FoyeCarmelo Anthony
Adam MorrisonLeBron James
J. J. RedickChris Bosh
Brandon RoyDwight Howard
Shelden WilliamsChris Paul

Second Team

Dee BrownAndrew Bogut
Rodney CarneyLuol Deng
Rudy GayJ. J. Redick
Tyler HansbroughAdam Morrison
Leon PoweSean May
Allan RayIke Diogu
P. J. TuckerDeron Williams

No, I take it back, I think THIS is my favorite team. I couldn’t even find a spot for Andrew Bogut.

2006-07

First Team

ActualModified
Arron AfflaloChris Paul
Kevin DurantKevin Durant
Tyler HansbroughLeBron James
Acie Law IVDwight Howard
Alando TuckerAndrew Bogut

Second Team

ActualModified
Jared DudleyAdam Morrison
Nick FazekasLuol Deng
Chris LoftonAl Jefferson
Joakim NoahLaMarcus Aldridge
Greg OdenAlando Tucker

Bosh and Carmelo have finally “graduated” and are replaced by Bogut and Kevin Durant. LeBron wins his third straight National POY Award. Luol Deng, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Al Jefferson round out the Second Team, with Alando Tucker managing to hang on to a spot.

2007-08

First Team

ActualModified
D. J. AugustinLaMarcus Aldridge
Michael BeasleyKevin Durant
Chris Douglas-RobertsDwight Howard
Tyler HansbroughTyler Hansbrough
Kevin LoveChris Paul

Second Team

ActualModified
Stephen CurryMonta Ellis
Shan FosterRudy Gay
Luke HarangodyArron Afflalo
Roy HibbertMichael Beasley
Chris LoftonJoakim Noah
D. J. WhiteAl Jefferson

Player of the Year was a tough call here, but I had to go with Chris Paul as a senior. He was already a stud in the NBA. Also, Tyler Hansbrough stays on First Team; looking at the guys who made Second Team, I don’t see a good reason to rank any of them over Hansbrough. Rudy Gay, Arron Afflalo, and Joakim Noah reappear on Second Team, a year or two after they actually made it.

2008-09

First Team

ActualModified
DeJuan BlairMichael Beasley
Stephen CurryKevin Durant
Blake GriffinBlake Griffin
Tyler HansbroughTyler Hansbrough
James HardenKevin Love

Second Team

ActualModified
Sherron CollinsRudy Gay
Luke HarangodyJames Harden
Ty LawsonStephen Curry
Jodie MeeksBrook Lopez
Jeff TeagueDerrick Rose
Hasheem ThabeetDJ Augustin

I had to go with the “junior” Durant as Player of the Year. Kevin Love edges out James Harden for the last spot on First Team.

NCAA All-Americans Reimagined, Part 2: the 1990s

This is Part 2 of my series in which I’m re-imagining All-American teams for my fantasy world in which all great basketball players play for 4 years in college. In Part 1, we looked at the 1970s and 1980s. In this initial phase, going all the way through 1994, the pattern was quite similar. Each year there were 3-5 players in the NBA who had left college early. While many of these players were great college players, the volume was not enough to really make a mark on the broader landscape of college basketball. It was a blip on the radar. College basketball still had 99.9% of the players of college age, and even 99% of the really good ones. 1995 marks the point at which this began to change. Early departures spiked in 1995 and began the rapid increase which has continued practically to this day, and which has transformed college basketball.

As in Part 1, NBA players are in red and National Players of the Year (Naismith Award) winners are in bold.

1989-90

First Team

ActualModified
Derrick ColemanDerrick Coleman
Chris JacksonChris Jackson
Larry JohnsonLarry Johnson
Gary PaytonGary Payton
Lionel SimmonsLionel Simmons

Second Team

ActualModified
Hank GathersHank Gathers
Kendall GillJR Reid
Bo KimbleBo Kimble
Alonzo MourningNick Anderson
Rumeal RobinsonRumeal Robinson
Dennis ScottDennis Scott
Doug SmithDoug Smith

No changes here to first team. And – spoiler alert – this is the last year for which that will be true. I debated putting Rex Chapman on the second team, but couldn’t decide whom to take off.

1990-91

First Team

ActualModified
Kenny AndersonDennis Scott
Jimmy JacksonChris Jackson
Larry JohnsonLarry Johnson
Shaquille O’NealShaquille O’Neal
Billy OwensShawn Kemp

Second Team

ActualModified
Stacey AugmonStacey Augmon
Keith JenningsKenny Anderson
Christian LaettnerChristian Laettner
Eric MurdockJimmy Jackson
Steve SmithBilly Owens

Pretty good squad here, don’t you think? Can you imagine Dennis Scott and Chris Jackson/Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf on the same team? Not enough basketballs to go around. And I have to get Shawn Kemp in there.

1991-92

First Team

ActualModified
Jimmy JacksonJimmy Jackson
Christian LaettnerChristian Laettner
Harold MinerKenny Anderson
Alonzo MourningShawn Kemp
Shaquille O’NealShaquille O’Neal

Second Team

ActualModified
Byron HoustonByron Houston
Don MacLeanHarold Miner
Anthony PeelerAlonzo Mourning
Malik SealyMalik Sealy
Walt WilliamsBilly Owens

All due respect to Harold Miner aka “Baby Jordan”, but I have to get Kenny Anderson as a senior in there. And Shawn Kemp, who I strongly considered for Player of the Year, but in the end I stuck with Laettner. Alonzo Mourning was a great player, but somebody had to make room for Kemp.

1992-93

First Team

ActualModified
Calbert CheaneyCalbert Cheaney
Penny HardawayHarold Miner
Bobby HurleyJimmy Jackson
Jamal MashburnJamal Mashburn
Chris WebberShaquille O’Neal

Second Team

ActualModified
Terry DeherePenny Hardaway
Grant HillGrant Hill
Billy McCaffreyBobby Hurley
Eric MontrossChris Webber
J. R. RiderJ. R. Rider
Glenn RobinsonGlenn Robinson
Rodney RogersRodney Rogers

An easy player of the year pick with Shaq over Calbert Cheaney. Harold Miner and Jimmy Jackson bump Penny Hardaway and Bobby Hurley to second team.

1993-94

First Team

ActualModified
Grant HillPenny Hardaway
Jason KiddJason Kidd
Donyell MarshallChris Webber
Glenn RobinsonGlenn Robinson
Clifford RozierJamal Mashburn

Second Team

ActualModified
Melvin BookerRodney Rogers
Eric MontrossGrant Hill
Lamond MurrayDonyell Marshall
Khalid ReevesClifford Rozier
Jalen RoseJalen Rose
Corliss WilliamsonCorliss Williamson

I don’t feel great about bumping Grant Hill to second team, but something has to give. Penny, Webber, and Mashburn have to be there. Player of the Year is a really tough call here, but I’m going with Mashburn.

1994-95

First Team

ActualModified
Ed O’BannonChris Webber
Shawn RespertDonyell Marshall
Joe SmithGlenn Robinson
Jerry StackhouseJalen Rose
Damon StoudamireJason Kidd

Second Team

ActualModified
Randolph ChildressEd O’Bannon
Kerry KittlesShawn Respert
Lou RoeJoe Smith
Rasheed WallaceClifford Rozier
Corliss WilliamsonJuwan Howard

This is the year that everything changed. In addition to Webber, who came out the year before, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jason Kidd, Donyell Marshall, Clifford Rozier, Lamond Murray, and the Big Dog all came out early. This included four of the five first-teamers from the previous year. Joe Smith was National Player of the Year, and he was a great, great, player; but in the end, I couldn’t find a spot for him.

1995-96

First Team

ActualModified
Ray AllenCorliss Williamson
Marcus CambyMarcus Camby
Tony DelkJason Kidd
Tim DuncanJerry Stackhouse
Allen IversonJoe Smith
Kerry KittlesRasheed Wallace

Second Team

ActualModified
Danny FortsonRay Allen
Keith Van HornTim Duncan
Jacque VaughnAllen Iverson
John WallaceKerry Kittles
Lorenzen WrightGary Trent

Some incredible players getting bumped here, including Ray Allen, Tim Duncan, and Allen Iverson. I’m not necessarily convinced that Duncan would have been the fourth-best player in the ACC had Smith, Stackhouse, and Wallace stayed. I’m only sorry that we didn’t get to find out. What a year it would have been in the ACC. Notice too that Gary Trent, the “Shaq of the MAC”, slips onto Second Team.

1996-97

First Team

ActualModified
Tim DuncanTim Duncan
Danny FortsonJoe Smith
Raef LaFrentzKevin Garnett
Ron MercerMarcus Camby
Keith Van HornJerry Stackhouse

Second Team

ActualModi
Chauncey BillupsRasheed Wallace
Bobby JacksonAntonio McDyess
Antawn JamisonAllen Iverson
Brevin KnightRay Allen
Jacque VaughnKeith Van Horn

The only thing better than imagining Duncan, Stackhouse, Wallace, and Smith as junior is imagining them as seniors. And yet, I couldn’t put them all on First Team because of another emerging star – 19-year old Kevin Garnett. This team is so good that Allen Iverson and Ray Allen can’t crack First Team either.

1997-98

First Team

ActualModified
Mike BibbyAllen Iverson
Antawn JamisonAntawn Jamison
Raef LaFrentzRaef LaFrentz
Paul PierceKevin Garnett
Miles SimonRon Mercer

Second Team

ActualModified
Vince CarterDanny Fortson
Mateen CleavesKobe Bryant
Pat GarrityShareef Abdur-Rahim
Richard HamiltonStephon Marbury
Ansu SesayMike Bibby

Allen Iverson finally makes it to First Team as a senior. Notice a couple of new names making their debuts on Second Team – sophomore Kobe Bryant and junior Paul Pierce. The last spot on Second Team was a tough call between Bibby and Raef LaFrentz.

1998-99

First Team

ActualModified
Elton BrandPaul Pierce
Mateen CleavesKobe Bryant
Richard HamiltonRon Mercer
Andre MillerKevin Garnett
Jason TerryAntawn Jamison

Second Team

ActualModified
Evan EschmeyerElton Brand
Steve FrancisAndre Miller
Trajan LangdonShareef Abdur-Rahim
Chris PorterStephon Marbury
Wally SzczerbiakMike Bibby

Another clean sweep. Elton Brand, you had a really nice year, but who am I leaving off to keep you on First Team? Kobe? Garnett? Paul Pierce? Jamison? I can’t find a spot. I feel bad about leaving Andre Miller off as well, but I don’t see where to put him. Stephon Marbury as a senior, Rip Hamilton and Bibby as juniors, these guys have to be on the list.

That’s it for the 90s. Next up will be the 00s.

NCAA All-Americans Reimagined, Part 1: The 1970s and 1980s

The quality of play in college basketball has declined over the past 25 years or so. I think that conclusion is inevitable for anyone who thinks about it for a few minutes. When most of the top 19, 20, and 21 year olds are in the NBA, how could it be otherwise?

But how much has it declined? It’s impossible to answer this precisely, but I thought of one fun way to think about it. What if we had preserved the conditions that obtained until the mid-1970s, which is to say, everyone played in college, and nobody left early. How would that have affected the All-American teams over the years?

So I’ve been digging through the Consensus First and Second Team All-American rosters since about 1975, looking at the best players who were college age but already in the NBA, and trying to figure out who would have made All-American had they still been in college, and which of the guys who made the actual team would have been displaced.

One of the things I hope to gain from this is to get an idea of how much these honors have been cheapened over the years. For example, Jared Sullinger and Danny Manning both made First Team All-American twice. Does that make Sullinger as good as Manning? Manning was competing against the best players of his age group, save two or three. By the time Sullinger came along, there were probably 60 guys who were college age who weren’t there anymore. Would Sullinger still have been an All-American if all those guys had been in college? That’s what I’m trying to determine.

Of course this is a speculative exercise. Nobody really knows how good, say, Moses Malone would have been in college. And since nobody knows, I figure my opinion is as good as anybody else’s. In a few cases, it’s easy. If a guy made First Team as a junior and then turned pro (Shaquille O’Neal), it seems a safe bet that he would have made it as a senior. And then there are the no-brainers. You think LeBron and Kobe would have been All-Americans? Probably a safe bet.

But in a lot of cases, it requires looking at the college and NBA performance of the players in question, and making a judgment call, which I did as best I could. I’ll offer some explanation of my decisions as we go along. Which you probably won’t agree with, and isn’t that the fun of these “what if?” games?

Without further ado, let’s get started.

1974-75

First Team

ActualModified
Adrian DantleyAdrian Dantley
John LucasMoses Malone
Scott MayScott May
Dave MeyersDave Meyers
David ThompsonDavid Thompson

Second Team

ActualModified
Luther BurdenLuther Burden
Leon DouglasLeon Douglas
Kevin GreveyKevin Grevey
Ron LeeRon Lee
Gus WilliamsJohn Lucas

Moses Malone got it all started. He was an NBA All-Star as a rookie in 1975, so I’m going to guess he would have been an All-American. John Lucas or Scott May are the most likely to have been pushed down; I’m going with Lucas.

1975-76

First Team

ActualModified
Kent BensonKent Benson
Adrian DantleyAdrian Dantley
John LucasMoses Malone
Scott MayScott May
Richard WashingtonRichard Washington

Second Team

ActualModified
Phil FordPhil Ford
Bernard KingBernard King
Mitch KupchakMitch Kupchak
Phil SellersPhil Sellers
Earl TatumJohn Lucas

Sorry John.

1976-77

First Team

ActualModified
Kent BensonKent Benson
Otis BirdsongAdrian Dantley
Phil FordPhil Ford
Rickey GreenRickey Green
Marques JohnsonRichard Washington
Bernard KingMoses Malone

Second Team

ActualModified
Greg BallardOtis Birdsong
Bill CartwrightBill Cartwright
Rod GriffinMarques Johnson
Ernie GrunfeldErnie Grunfeld
Phil HubbardPhil Hubbard
Butch LeeBernard King
Mychal ThompsonMychal Thompson

Dantley and Washington were first teamers the year before, so they have to be on the list. And Moses is still around. It’s hard to say who would have been displaced, but I’m guessing that if Washington were still around, there wouldn’t have been enough shots for Marques Johnson. Birdsong and Bernard King are the other guys whose spots on First Team seem the most tenuous.

1977-78

First Team

ActualModified
Larry BirdLarry Bird
Phil FordPhil Ford
David GreenwoodDavid Greenwood
Butch LeeButch Lee
Mychal ThompsonBernard King

Second Team

ActualModified
Ron BrewerRon Brewer
Jack GivensJack Givens
Rod GriffinMychal Thompson
Rick RobeyRick Robey
Freeman WilliamsFreeman Williams

In this season, we have Bernard King, Darryl Dawkins, and Kenny Carr to worry about. I think Bernard is a safe bet for first team, and Mychal Thompson is the victim. Dawkins was never a great player, and wasn’t at his peak yet in 1978, so I’m leaving him off. Carr very well could have been an All-American had he returned, but I’m giving the other guys the benefit of the doubt.

1978-79

First Team

ActualModified
Larry BirdLarry Bird
Mike GminskiMike Gminski
David GreenwoodDavid Greenwood
Magic JohnsonMagic Johnson
Sidney MoncriefSidney Moncrief

Second Team

ActualModified
Bill CartwrightBill Cartwright
Calvin NattCalvin Natt
Mike O’KorenMike O’Koren
Jim PaxsonJim Paxson
Jim SpanarkelJim Spanarkel
Kelly TripuckaKelly Tripucka
Sly WilliamsSly Williams

No changes from the actual team.

1979-80

First Team

ActualModified
Mark AguirreMark Aguirre
Michael BrooksMagic Johnson
Joe Barry CarrollJoe Barry Carroll
Darrell GriffithDarrell Griffith
Kyle MacyKyle Macy

Second Team

ActualModified
Mike GminskiMike Gminski
Albert KingAlbert King
Mike O’KorenMike O’Koren
Kelvin RanseyMichael Brooks
Sam WorthenSam Worthen

Gotta make room for Magic Johnson. Sorry, Michael Brooks. Cliff Robinson is also worthy of consideration, but I’m not sure he was All-American caliber at age 19. Wait until next year.

1980-81

First Team

ActualModified
Mark AguirreMark Aguirre
Danny AingeDanny Ainge
Steve JohnsonMagic Johnson
Ralph SampsonRalph Sampson
Isiah ThomasIsiah Thomas

Second Team

ActualModified
Sam BowieSam Bowie
Jeff LampJeff Lamp
Rudy MacklinRudy Macklin
Kelly TripuckaKelly Tripucka
Danny VranesCliff Robinson
Al WoodSteve Johnson

Same two guys, Magic and Cliff Robinson. Robinson averaged 19.5 PPG in the NBA, so I’m going to say he would be at least a second teamer. Steve Johnson gets knocked down to Second Team, and Danny Vranes and Al Wood are out.

1981-82

First Team

ActualModified
Terry CummingsTerry Cummings
Quintin DaileyQuintin Dailey
Eric FloydMark Aguirre
Ralph SampsonRalph Sampson
James WorthyIsiah Thomas

Second Team

ActualModified
Dale EllisDale Ellis
Kevin MageeKevin Magee
John PaxsonEric Floyd
Sam PerkinsJames Worthy
Paul PresseyPaul Pressey

Isiah Thomas and Mark Aguirre have to be on the list. It was hard to say who would be displaced, but it wouldn’t be Cummings or Sampson, so I picked Sleepy Floyd and James Worthy. The other player who came out early is Buck Williams. He’s a hard player to rank; he was a very good, but not All-American caliber player at Maryland. However he was outstanding in the NBA from the beginning. Perhaps he would’ve had a great senior season and been an All-American, but again I’m erring on the side of giving the benefit of the doubt to the guys who stayed.

1982-83

First Team

ActualModified
Dale EllisTerry Cummings
Patrick EwingDominique Wilkins
Michael JordanMichael Jordan
Keith LeeJames Worthy
Sam PerkinsIsiah Thomas
Ralph SampsonRalph Sampson
Wayman TisdaleQuintin Dailey

Second Team

ActualModified
Clyde DrexlerClyde Drexler
Sidney GreenKeith Lee
John PaxsonJohn Paxson
Steve StipanovichDale Ellis
Jon SundvoldPatrick Ewing
Darrell WalkerSam Perkins
Randy WittmanWayman Tisdale

Now it gets interesting. Early departures were Terry Cummings, Dominique Wilkins, James Worthy, Quintin Dailey, Clark Kellogg, LaSalle Thompson, and one more year of Isiah Thomas. Cummings, Worthy, Dailey, and Thomas are no-brainers. Considering how ‘Nique exploded onto the NBA scene, I think it’s fair to assume that he would have made the list. But the guys they are displacing are pretty darn good too. Tisdale and Ewing were sophomores, so they weren’t at their peaks yet. Sam Perkins gets the shaft again. I chose not to put Kellogg or Thompson on the second team, but both were excellent players and could have had an All-American caliber senior season.

1983-84

First Team

ActualModified
Patrick EwingPatrick Ewing
Michael JordanMichael Jordan
Akeem OlajuwonClyde Drexler
Sam PerkinsSam Perkins
Wayman TisdaleWayman Tisdale

Second Team

ActualModified
Michael CageAkeem Olajuwon
Devin DurrantEnnis Whatley
Keith LeeKeith Lee
Chris MullinChris Mullin
Melvin TurpinDarrell Walker
Leon WoodLeon Wood

In 1984 we have Clyde Drexler, Ennis Whatley, and Darrell Walker to deal with. Drexler and Walker made second team the year before, so they belong somewhere. I’m guessing that Clyde the Glide would have edged out his teammate Hakeem, and Darrell Walker bumps Melvin Turpin. Ennis Whatley was very close to making All-American the year before, so I’m going to give him the edge over Devin Durrant.

1984-85

First Team

ActualModified
Johnny DawkinsMichael Jordan
Patrick EwingPatrick Ewing
Keith LeeKeith Lee
Xavier McDanielAkeem Olajuwon
Chris MullinChris Mullin
Wayman TisdaleWayman Tisdale

Second Team

ActualModified
Len BiasJohnny Dawkins
Jon KoncakAlvin Robertson
Mark PriceEnnis Whatley
Kenny WalkerCharles Barkley
Dwayne WashingtonXavier McDaniel

Jordan and Olajuwon have to be on First Team, obviously. Johnny Dawkins and Xavier McDaniel seem like the most likely candidates to get bumped. On Second Team, I’m going for a clean sweep, making room for Whatley again, Charles Barkley, and Alvin Robertson.

1985-86

First Team

ActualModified
Steve AlfordWayman Tisdale
Walter BerryWalter Berry
Len BiasLen Bias
Johnny DawkinsJohnny Dawkins
Kenny WalkerKenny Walker

Second Team

ActualModified
Dell CurryBenoit Benjamin
Brad DaughertyBrad Daugherty
Ron HarperRon Harper
Danny ManningDanny Manning
David RobinsonSteve Alford
Scott SkilesScott Skiles

Tisdale and Benoit Benjamin are the guys we have to make room for. I think Alford is the most likely candidate to get bumped. I’m guessing that Benjamin would have edged out Dell Curry.

1986-87

First Team

ActualModified
Steve AlfordSteve Alford
Danny ManningDanny Manning
David RobinsonDavid Robinson
Kenny SmithDwayne Washington
Reggie WilliamsWilliam Bedford

Second Team

ActualModified
Armon GilliamArmon Gilliam
Horace GrantKenny Smith
Dennis HopsonDennis Hopson
Mark JacksonMark Jackson
Ken NormanReggie Williams

Early departures this year were Pearl Washington, William Bedford, and John “Hot Plate” Williams. Washington and Bedford were borderline All-American caliber players the year before, so I’m going to guess they would have made it. Hot Plate was good, but wait another year.

1987-88

First Team

ActualModified
Sean ElliottSean Elliott
Gary GrantGary Grant
Hersey HawkinsHersey Hawkins
Danny ManningDanny Manning
J.R. ReidDerrick McKey

Second Team

ActualModified
Danny FerryDanny Ferry
Jerome LaneJohn Williams
Mark MaconMark Macon
Mitch RichmondJ.R. Reid
Rony SeikalyRony Seikaly
Michael SmithMichael Smith

It’s only Derrick McKey and Hot Plate this time. McKey was excellent, borderline All-American the year before, so I’m giving him the nod over J.R. Reid. Williams gets the nod over Jerome Lane.

1988-89

First Team

ActualModified
Sean ElliottSean Elliott
Pervis EllisonJerome Lane
Danny FerryDanny Ferry
Chris JacksonChris Jackson
Stacey KingStacey King

Second Team

ActualModified
Mookie BlaylockMookie Blaylock
Sherman DouglasSherman Douglas
Jay EdwardsJay Edwards
Todd LichtiRod Strickland
Glen RicePervis Ellison
Lionel SimmonsLionel Simmons

Jerome Lane gets his revenge, sending “Never Nervous” Pervis Ellison down to Second Team. We also have Rod Strickland and Rex Chapman to deal with. Each of them has a case, but I’m going to wait a year on Chapman. Strickland gets the nod over Todd Lichti.

In my next post, I’ll deal with the 1990s.

Bracketology 3/12

There were a few games involving bubble teams yesterday, in games they needed to win. Not because it helps their resume, but more because losing hurts it. NC State, Indiana, and Arkansas won; Stanford and Xavier did not. Stanford is now my last team in the field.

SeedTeam 1Team 2Team 3Team 4Team 5Team 6
1KansasBaylorGonzagaDayton
2VillanovaFlorida StateSan Diego St.Maryland
3CreightonKentuckyMichigan St.Duke
4Seton HallOregonAuburnLouisville
5West VirginiaButlerWisconsinOhio St.
6LSUBYUPenn StateVirginia
7IowaHoustonArizonaMarquette
8ColoradoIllinoisMichiganRutgers
9St. Mary’sProvidenceFloridaOklahoma
10Arizona St.USCUtah StateWichita St.
11XavierTexas TechIndianaRichmondUCLAStanford
12North TexasE. Tenn. St.YaleVermont
13AkronNew Mexico St.Stephen F. AustinE. Washington
14BelmontHofstraLibertyBradley
15N. KentuckyUC IrvineN. Dakota St.Little Rock
16Boston U.WinthropSienaRobert MorrisPrairie View A&MNC Central

Checking In: Boston U., Northern Kentucky, Robert Morris

Dropping Out: Colgate, Wright State, St. Francis (PA)

Last 4 Byes: Arizona State, Wichita St., Indiana, Texas Tech

Last 4 In: Xavier, UCLA, Richmond, Stanford

First 4 Out: Texas, NC State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State

Next 4 Out: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Memphis, St. Louis

NC State’s 2020 Tournament Chances

I thought about copying and pasting this article from last year and see if anyone would notice… it does seems to be a rite of spring for Kevin Keatts’ Wolfpack – the Bubble Watch. And this year is no different. The Wolfpack’s profile is quite different from last year, when they played a weak non-conference schedule and lacked marquee wins. This year, they beat Wisconsin and Duke at home and Virginia on the road, so they have enough good wins, but sweeps at the hands of Carolina and Georgia Tech, along with a loss at Boston College, have seemingly cancelled out those good wins. And so the Wolfpack find themselves right around the cut line. Again.

There are lots of ways to look at this, but the one I like is this one. There are 68 teams in the field. 12 teams have already punched their tickets:

  • Atlantic Sun: Liberty
  • Big South: Winthrop
  • Colonial Athletic: Hofstra
  • Horizon League: Northern Kentucky
  • Ivy League: Yale
  • Missouri Valley: Bradley
  • Mountain West: Utah State
  • Northeast: Robert Morris
  • Ohio Valley: Belmont
  • Southern: East Tennessee State
  • Summit League: North Dakota State
  • West Coast: Gonzaga

That leaves 56 bids. Of the 56, 12 more will come from the champions of one-bid leagues:

  • America East
  • Big Sky
  • Big West
  • Conference USA
  • MAAC
  • MAC
  • MEAC
  • Patriot
  • Southland
  • Southwestern Athletic
  • Sun Belt
  • WAC

So that leaves 44 bids, 36 at-large bids and 8 bids for the champions of the multi-bid leagues whose tournaments are not yet decided:

  • ACC
  • American Athletic
  • Atlantic 10
  • Big 10
  • Big 12
  • Big East
  • PAC 12
  • SEC

I am making the call that there are 36 locks for those 44 bids:

Arizona
Auburn
Baylor
Butler
BYU
Colorado
Creighton
Dayton
Duke
Florida
Florida State
Houston
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
LSU
Marquette
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oregon
Penn State
Providence
Rutgers
St. Mary’s
San Diego State
Seton Hall
USC
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin

I feel a little bit nervous calling Rutgers and Oklahoma locks, but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

So we’re down to 8 bids left. And I would say that there are 11 teams in serious contention for those 8 bids:

Arizona State
Cincinnati
Indiana
NC State
Richmond
Stanford
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
Wichita State
Xavier

Now, always keep in mind the possibility of bid stealers. The way to think about bid stealers is this: if any team that is a) from one of the 8 multi-bid leagues above and b) NOT on the “Locks” list above wins a conference tournament – they grab one of the 8 up-for-grabs bids, leaving one less for everyone else.

If that doesn’t happen, then 8 of the 11 teams above will get in. There are still a couple of other teams that can’t be ruled out for an at-large if they make a deep run in the conference tourney – Mississippi State, possibly Purdue. But most likely, the 8 bids will come from those 11 teams.

Of those 11 teams, the conventional wisdom, which I agree with, is that 4 of the 11 – Arizona State, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Xavier will probably get in, barring an early conference tournament loss. Now I want to say that this is not a guarantee. None of the 11 teams I listed should be shocked to not hear their name called on Selection Sunday. That’s why I didn’t call them Locks. TCU was in a similar position last year, and they were left out. But I think that unless those teams get upset by a bad team in their tournaments, they will probably make it.

That leaves 4 bids to be split among Cincinnati, NC State, Richmond, Stanford, Texas, UCLA, and Wichita State.

Cincinnati and Wichita State would meet in the semifinals of the AAC Tournament on Saturday if both win on Friday. It’s tempting to call that an “elimination game”. I’m not certain of that, but I think Cincinnati especially would have a real uphill climb if they don’t win that game.

Richmond plays the winner of Davidson-LaSalle on Thursday, then probably Rhode Island in the semis if they win. I think if the Spiders can beat Rhode Island, they’ll probably make it. If not, they’re in trouble.

UCLA and Stanford may also be headed for an elimination game in the quarters of the Pac-12 tomorrow. Stanford first has to beat Cal tonight. UCLA has a very strange resume. They’re really low in the NET (#76) and they have some terrible losses – but they have 6 Quadrant 1 wins and, in my opinion, are in the field right now. I think there is a decent chance that both of these teams make it, but the loser of tomorrow’s game is going to be sweating.

Texas is also a weird team. They’re also low in the NET (#69), but for a different reason – they’ve been blown out a lot. They lost to West Virginia by 38, Providence by 22, Georgetown by 16, Iowa State by 29, and Oklahoma State by 22. BUT, they have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, 4 of which are on the road, and a home win against West Virginia. So good luck figuring them out. And, as luck would have it, they are matched up with… Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament. I’m loving these bubble team elimination games. I am saying that if Texas loses, they are out. Texas Tech I think could still have a chance with a loss.

So there you have it. If you’re a Wolfpack fan, you’re rooting for all of those other 10 teams to lose, and lose early. If they play each other, you’re rooting for the most vulnerable teams – probably Cincinnati and Texas – to lose.

And then of course you’re hoping for a win over Duke on Thursday, which would move the Wolfpack into Lock territory. If they don’t beat Duke, they are going to need a lot of help and a lot of luck, and I wouldn’t put their chances at more than 25%.

Bracketology 3/9

Through games of Sunday:

SeedTeam 1Team 2Team 3Team 4Team 5Team 6
1KansasBaylorGonzagaDayton
2VillanovaFlorida StateSan Diego St.Maryland
3CreightonKentuckyOregonDuke
4Seton HallMichigan St.AuburnLouisville
5West VirginiaButlerWisconsinOhio St.
6ColoradoBYUIowaVirginia
7Penn StateHoustonLSUIllinois
8MarquetteArizonaMichiganUSC
9OklahomaProvidenceFloridaRutgers
10Arizona St.St. Mary’sXavierWichita St.
11StanfordIndianaTexas TechUtah StateUCLARichmond
12North TexasE. Tenn. St.YaleVermont
13AkronBradleyStephen F. AustinHofstra
14BelmontNew Mexico St.LibertyE. Washington
15ColgateUC IrvineN. Dakota St.Little Rock
16Wright St.WinthropSienaSt. Francis (PA)Prairie View A&MNC Central

Checking In: Richmond

Dropping Out: Texas

Last 4 Byes: Xavier, Arizona State, Wichita St., Stanford

Last 4 In: UCLA, Texas Tech, Indiana, Richmond

First 4 Out: Texas, NC State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State

Next 4 Out: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Memphis, Northern Iowa

Bracketology 3/7

Key games from yesterday:

  • Northern Iowa got blown out by Drake in the first round of the MVC Tournament. Can they get an at-large bid?
  • NC State beat Wake Forest, in a game that helped them… none.
  • Richmond won at Duquesne, a solid Quad 2 win.
  • Favorites who won included Winthrop, San Diego State, Yale, Belmont, and Utah State.

Here is the current bracket (automatic bids in bold):

SeedTeam 1Team 2Team 3Team 4Team 5Team 6
1KansasBaylorGonzagaSan Diego St.
2VillanovaFlorida StateDaytonMaryland
3CreightonSeton HallLouisvilleDuke
4OregonMichigan St.Ohio St.Kentucky
5AuburnButlerWisconsinBYU
6ColoradoPenn StateIowaWest Virginia
7MarquetteArizonaLSUMichigan
8IllinoisHoustonVirginiaProvidence
9XavierUSCSt. Mary’sRutgers
10Arizona St.FloridaOklahomaIndiana
11StanfordWichita St.Texas TechUtah StateUCLATexas
12North TexasE. Tenn. St.YaleVermont
13AkronBradleyStephen F. AustinHofstra
14BelmontNew Mexico St.LibertyE. Washington
15ColgateUC IrvineN. Dakota St.Little Rock
16Wright St.WinthropSienaSt. Francis (PA)Prairie View A&MNC Central

Checking In: Bradley

Dropping Out: Northern Iowa

Last 4 Byes: Oklahoma, Arizona State, Stanford, Wichita St.

Last 4 In: Texas Tech, Texas, UCLA, Utah State

First 4 Out: Purdue, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Richmond

Next 4 Out: NC State, Northern Iowa, Mississippi State, Tennessee