I have testicular cancer. More specifically, my cancer is called seminoma, to distinguish it from other testicular cancers that are called non-seminomas. The seminoma has spread to my lymph nodes which makes it metastatic seminoma.
How and when were you diagnosed?
In the fall of 2020, I started feeling something like a very subtle pressure in my left testicle. It wasn’t painful or even uncomfortable, and for a while it came and went, but eventually it became more consistent, and I started to notice a significant difference in size.
On November 2, I went to my primary care doctor. There are a number of reasons why testicular swelling can happen, many of which are not serious. She ordered an ultrasound which was performed that same afternoon. Later that day, she called me and told me that I had a mass in my testicle that was consistent with cancer.
Did they do a biopsyto confirm that it was cancer?
No. The standard treatment for a testicular tumor skips the biopsy and goes straight to removal of the testicle. There are several reasons for this: 1) this is a tricky and risky part of the body to biopsy; 2) testicular masses are usually cancer anyway; 3) removal of a testicle is a relatively safe and simple surgery with little in the way of negative impacts or side effects on the patient.
So I underwent an orchiectomy (the fancy name for the removal surgery) on November 11. The surgery was successful, and while I was really sore for the first few days, after that I bounced back pretty quickly.
About 10 days after the surgery, the surgeon called and confirmed that the tumor was malignant (seminoma).
How did they determine that the cancer had spread?
The next step was to determine whether the cancer had metastasized (spread). In the best-case scenario, there is no metastasis and therefore no need for further treatment. In late November, I went in for a CT scan. The results of the CT scan indicated two enlarged periaortic lymph nodes that were described by the radiologist as indicative of metastasis.
What stage is your cancer?
Testicular cancer has three stages. Stage I is when there is no evidence of metastasis. Stage II is when there is metastasis to the lymph nodes. Stage 3 is when there is metastasis beyond the lymph nodes. Stages II and III are further broken down into substages, which are determined based on size of the tumors, markers that are detectable in the bloodstream, and other factors.
I am Stage IIa. This is the earliest stage of metastatic seminoma.
Did the doctors recommend treatment right away?
No. My oncologist recommended a biopsy of the lymph nodes in order to confirm that the enlargement was due to cancer. He said there was a 20-30% chance that the enlargement could be benign, in which case they would be treating me for nothing.
The challenge with a biopsy is that these particular lymph nodes are difficult to get to with a needle, without hitting something important. Like your kidneys, your aorta… important stuff. Plan A was to do a traditional biopsy with a very long needle, but the radiologist determined that to be too risky. Plan B was to perform the biopsy via an endoscopic ultrasound. This is a procedure where they put an endoscope down your throat and through your esophagus into your stomach and small intestine, using ultrasound technology to look around your abdomen. If they can find the spot, the endoscope has a needle that can collect a biopsy.
This procedure was performed on January 25. A few days later, the doctor called and confirmed that the biopsy showed metastatic seminoma in my lymph nodes.
How is Stage IIa seminoma treated?
Seminomas are among the most treatable and curable cancers. They respond well to both radiation and chemotherapy. Radiation is a localized therapy, meaning it is focused on one particular spot, and is therefore used only in early stage metastasis. Later stages are treated with chemotherapy.
Historically with Stage IIa seminoma, radiation has been used more frequently, but my doctors gave me a choice between radiation and chemotherapy. After much deliberation, I chose chemotherapy.
What is your prognosis?
According to this article at cancer.org, Stage II testicular cancers in general have a 5-year survival rate of 96%. The treatments are highly effective in eliminating the cancer. Like other cancers, seminoma can come back, but many seminoma patients never have a recurrence and go on to live normal lives after their treatment.
What kind of chemotherapy regimen are you doing?
I am doing 3 cycles of BEP (bleomycin/etoposide/cisplatin). Each cycle lasts 3 weeks, so a total of 9 weeks. All the drugs are given via an intravenous infusion.
Bleomycin is given every Tuesday for all 9 weeks. Etoposide and cisplatin are given for 5 consecutive days in the first week of the cycle.
Week
M
Tu
W
Th
F
Sa
Su
Weeks 1/4/7
E,P
B,E,P
E,P
E,P
E,P
Weeks 2/5/8
B
Weeks 3/6/9
B
When do you start your chemo?
On Monday, February 22, 2021.
Are you experiencing any symptoms from the cancer?
No. As of this writing in mid-February 2021, I feel totally normal.
Roy Face in 1959 went 18-1 as a reliever – the best single-season W-L% of all time for a pitcher with more than 12 decisions. Moreover, he did this for a mediocre Pirates team that went 78-76. How in the world did this happen?
First off, let’s give the man some credit – he pitched well. He had a 2.70 ERA and a 142 ERA+. But in 1962, he had a 1.88 ERA and went 8-7. In 1960 he had a 2.90 ERA and went 10-8. In 1967 he had a 2.42 ERA and went 7-5. So obviously the stars aligned somehow in 1959.
For a moment, it’s worth reminding ourselves how relievers get decisions. A reliever who enters a game with his team ahead or behind usually does not get a decision. Most of the time, he gets a decision only if the lead changes while he is in the game (or as a result of runners he is responsible for after leaving the game) and that lead is not relinquished. For a modern closer who enters the game only in a save situation, a decision is possible only if he blows the save. For a reliever who comes into a game trailing, a decision is possible only if his offense comes back and ties the game, regardless of how well he pitches.
The situation where a reliever has a good chance of getting a decision is a tie game. In a tie game, any run makes the current pitchers the pitchers of record. So the way for a reliever to pile up decisions is to enter lots of tie games.
Now, to come back to Roy Face in 1959. Looking at his game log, it really comes down to three things:
He entered a lot of tie games and pitched extremely well in those games.
He blew a lot of saves, creating a lot of W/L opportunities for himself.
He was the beneficiary of incredible, dramatic run support from his offense.
Tie Games
Face entered 12 tie games. In 2 of those games, he inherited runners who later scored, and Face did not get a decision. In the other 10 games, he entered with nobody on base. In those games, he went 10-0. Think about that. Ten times, Roy Face came into a tie ballgame with nobody on base. All ten times, Roy Face got the win. In seven of the ten, he did not give up a run, and just kept pitching until the Pirates scored. In the other 3 games, Face gave up one run and the lead, and would have gotten a loss had the Pirates not scored. All 3 times, the Pirates scored 2 runs in the bottom of the inning to walk it off and give Face the win.
Save Situations
Roy Face blew 9 saves in 19 opportunities in 1959 – a terrible percentage. In fact, this is one of only 19 seasons in MLB history in which a reliever has had a save percentage less than 53% with at least 18 opportunities. His ERA in his 19 save opportunities was 5.56. And somehow, in those 9 blown save games, he escaped with a 4-1 record. Here’s a rundown:
April 24 – entered bottom of 7th with a one-run lead. Gave up 2 runs in the 8th and was in line for a loss. Pirates scored 4 in the 9th to win the game. Face gets the win.
May 12 – entered bottom of 8th with a one-run lead. Allowed an inherited runner to score and tie the game. No decision.
May 14 – entered bottom of 8th with a three run lead and 2 runners on. Allowed those 2 runs to score, plus one of his own, tie game. Dick Stuart homered in the 9th to win the game for the Pirates. Face gets the win.
June 11 – entered top of 8th with a two run lead and 2 runners on. Allowed those 2 runs to score, plus one of his own and was in line for a loss. Pirates put up 5 in the bottom of the 8th. Face gets the win.
July 12 (game 1) – entered top of 8th with a one run lead and 2 runners on. Got out of that jam, but allowed the tying run to score in the 9th. Pirates won in the bottom of the 10th. Face gets the win.
July 12 (game 2) – entered top of 9th with a one run lead and 1 runner on. Allowed that run to score, plus one of his own, was removed from the game, was in line for a loss. Pirates tied it in the 9th, taking Face off the hook. No decision.
July 30 – entered bottom of 7th with a one run lead and nobody on. Gave up the tying run in the 8th. Pirates eventually won in 12. No decision.
August 1 – entered bottom of 7th with a one run lead and two on. Allowed both runs to score, plus 3 of his own. Got a no decision because the inherited runners were the responsibility of the prior reliever.
September 11 (game 1) – entered bottom of 8th with a one run lead and one on. Got out of that, but his luck finally ran out in the bottom of the 9th. Gave up 2 runs, the Dodgers walked it off, and Face, who had been 17-0, got his first and only L of the season.
Other Wins
Face won 3 games where he came into a game the Pirates were trailing:
May 13 – entered bottom of 7th, Pirates down one. Pirates scored 3 in the 8th to win.
August 9 – entered bottom of 8th, Pirates down one. Gave up an unearned run in the 8th. Pirates scored 2 in the 9th to tie, and 2 more in the 10th to win.
August 23 (game 2) – entered top of 9th, Pirates down one. Pirates scored one in the 9th to tie, one in the 10th to win.
The only win we haven’t covered is from May 31 (game 2). Face was awarded the win under rule 9.17(b) – he was the most effective reliever in a game in which the starter did not go 5 innings.
What Does All This Tell Us About The 1959 Pirates?
The 1959 Pirates were an unremarkable team in most respects. They finished 4th out of 8 NL teams, 10 games behind the pennant-winning Dodgers. They scored 651 runs and allowed 680 on the season. They had a poor offense overall; their total of 651 runs was 6th in the NL. But they were quite possibly the greatest clutch hitting team the game has ever seen. Here are some of their records:
All-Time Single Season Walk-Off Wins, Team:
1 (tie): 1959 Pirates – 17 (out of 78 total wins)
1 (tie): 1977 Pirates – 17
Keep in mind that the 1977 Pirates played 162 games and they were actually good (96-66).
All-Time Single Season Extra Inning Wins, Team:
1: 1959 Pirates – 19
2(tie): 1988 Expos – 18
2(tie): 1949 Indians – 18
All-Time Single Season Winning Percentage in Extra-Inning Games, Team (min. 16 games):
1949 Indians, 18-1, .947
1959 Pirates, 19-2, .905
1959 Pirates Team OPS, by Inning:
Innings 1-3: .679
Innings 4-6: .659
Innings 7-9: .755
Extra Innings: 1.008 (The ’59 Pirates and the ’49 Indians are the only 2 teams in history with >1.000 OPS in extra innings, min. 180 PA)
Some Individual Slash Lines for ’59 Pirates in Extra Innings:
Mazeroski: .529 BA/.556 OBP/.647 SLG (19 PA)
Stuart: .636/.667/1.182 (12 PA)
Groat: .625/.647/1.335 (16 PA)
Virdon: .556/.667/.667 (16 PA)
Clemente: .455/.500/.455 (12 PA)
Mejias: .625/.700/1.000 (10 PA)
Best Single Season W-L%, Blown Save Games (min. 5 decisions)
5-1 Record: Dick Radatz 1964, Tyler Thornburg 2016
4-1 Record: Roy Face 1959, Dale Murray 1975, Ron Davis 1979, Jim Mecir 2000, LaTroy Hawkins 2004, Junior Guerra 2019
Conclusion
We all know about the 1960 Pirates. That team was essentially the same as the 1959 team, plus Vinegar Bend Mizell. I wonder if, somehow, their performance in tight games in 1959 was a predictor of clutch performances to come? Or if it in some way sparked that special 1960 season? It seems like there is a good book in there somewhere – or at least some good interviews. It’s still possible; at least 8 guys from the ’59 team are still living:
Bill Mazeroski, age 84
Dick Schofield, age 85
Bennie Daniels, age 88
Bob Skinner, age 89
Bill Virdon, age 89
Dick Groat, age 90
Vern Law, age 90
Roy Face, age 92
Somebody get their stories before it’s too late.
Note: The game of July 9 does not have a complete play-by-play record, so I’m not 100% sure that the game was tied when Face entered in the 8th. I am assuming that it was and including that game in the 12 tie games.
Jake Arrieta appears to be on the downside of his career. While we can’t rule out a resurgence, his ERA last year was 4.64, and he is 34 years old.
If Arrieta’s career is nearing the end, he will be remembered as an accomplished pitcher, but not a great one. From 2014 to 2017, he was excellent, peaking with his Cy Young Award in 2015. Otherwise, his career has been unremarkable. He is probably one of the 500 greatest pitchers of all time; perhaps there is an argument to put him in the top 300. Farther than that, we cannot go.
But for one calendar year – from June 21, 2015 to June 20, 2016 – Jake Arrieta was the greatest pitcher who ever lived.
G
W-L
IP
H
R
ER
BB
SO
HR
ERA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
34
27-2
240
133
36
32
58
248
5
1.20
.159
.220
.221
.441
Let’s analyze this as if it were a single season, and compare it to the greatest pitching seasons of all time.
The W-L record of 27-2 would be the greatest of all time for a starting pitcher. The only starting pitchers in history (not counting Al Spalding in 1875) who won 90% of their decisions were both in 1995 – Greg Maddux (19-2) and Randy Johnson (18-2).
The ERA of 1.20 would be the second lowest in the live ball era, second only to Gibson’s 1.12 in 1968. Arrieta’s is more valuable because he pitched in a much higher run-scoring context.
No pitcher with >100 IP has ever allowed fewer than 5 hits per 9 innings over a full season. Arrieta’s was 4.99.
Only one starting pitcher in the live ball era has had a WHIP (W + H/IP) of less than 0.8 – Pedro Martinez in 2000 with a 0.737. Arrieta’s was 0.796.
Only 6 pitchers since World War II have pitched over 200 innings and allowed 5 or fewer HRs. Arrieta allowed 5.
Arrieta’s OPS allowed of .441 would be by far the lowest all-time for a pitcher with at least 85 innings pitched. There are only 4 starting pitcher seasons (>180 IP) with an OPS allowed of less than .500:
Tiant 1968 (.495)
Maddux 1995 (.482)
Martinez 2000 (.473)
Gibson 1968 (.469)
The lowest slugging % allowed in a season with at least 150 IP in the live ball era is Gibson in 1968 with .236. Arrieta’s was .221.
Maybe, just maybe, Pedro in 2000 was better, given that he pitched in a much higher run-scoring context. Otherwise, I submit to you that Arrieta’s “season” is the greatest pitching season of all time.
This is the fourth and final entry in this series, in which I am recreating the All-American teams as they would have been if all (US-based) players went to college for 4 years. Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 focused on the 1970s/1980s, 1990s, and 2000s respectively. In Part 4, we’ll focus on the 2010s.
As in previous posts, NBA players are in red and National Players of the Year (Naismith) are in bold.
2009-10
First Team
Actual
Modified
Sherron Collins
Kevin Durant
Wesley Johnson
Kevin Love
Scottie Reynolds
Derrick Rose
Evan Turner
Brook Lopez
John Wall
Stephen Curry
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Cole Aldrich
Russell Westbrook
James Anderson
Michael Beasley
DeMarcus Cousins
James Harden
Luke Harangody
Dejuan Blair
Jon Scheyer
DJ Augustin
Greivis Vasquez
Evan Turner
It was not a difficult call to push all the First Teamers down in favor of this five. Keep in mind too, Blake Griffin was injured, so I left him off. Player of the Year was a very tough call between “senior” Kevin Durant and “senior” Steph Curry, but I went with Durant. The only Actual player who remains on the team at all is Player of the Year Evan Turner.
2010-11
First Team
Actual
Modified
Jimmer Fredette
Russell Westbrook
JaJuan Johnson
Kevin Love
Nolan Smith
Derrick Rose
Jared Sullinger
Blake Griffin
Kemba Walker
James Harden
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Kenneth Faried
Evan Turner
Jordan Hamilton
Dejuan Blair
Ben Hansbrough
Michael Beasley
Kawhi Leonard
Jimmer Fredette
Marcus Morris
John Wall
Jordan Taylor
DeMarcus Cousins
Derrick Williams
Jeff Teague
Again, not a difficult call here to push down all five First Teamers. Jimmer Fredette was National POY, and I love Jimmer, but are you keeping him over one of the five I have listed? I know a lot of these teams are great, but this has to be one of the best, with 4 “seniors” (Westbrook, Love, Rose, and Harden) and “junior” Griffin. I went with Harden as National POY, but all of the five have a case. I hated to leave Michael Beasley off First Team, but there just isn’t a spot. Jeff Teague sneaks onto Second Team in his “senior” year. Couldn’t find a spot for DeAndre Jordan or Eric Gordon.
2011-12
First Team
Actual
Modified
Anthony Davis
Anthony Davis
Draymond Green
John Wall
Doug McDermott
Blake Griffin
Thomas Robinson
Thomas Robinson
Jared Sullinger
DeMarcus Cousins
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Isaiah Canaan
Paul George
Marcus Denmon
Kyrie Irving
Kevin Jones
Greg Monroe
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Draymond Green
Tyler Zeller
Kemba Walker
I didn’t retain many freshman First Teamers, but Davis is an exception. Thomas Robinson wasn’t much of an NBA player, but in 2012 he was right there with Davis. Griffin is an easy choice as player of the year. “Juniors” John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins round out the First Team. Second Team is not bad either with George, Irving, Monroe, and Kemba. Couldn’t find a spot for DeMar Derozan.
2012-13
First Team
Actual
Modified
Trey Burke
Kyrie Irving
Doug McDermott
Anthony Davis
Victor Oladipo
Kawhi Leonard
Kelly Olynyk
John Wall
Otto Porter
DeMarcus Cousins
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Ben McLemore
Jared Sullinger
Mason Plumlee
Trey Burke
Marcus Smart
Thomas Robinson
Jeff Withey
Otto Porter
Cody Zeller
Victor Oladipo
This was a tough call. Burke, Oladipo, and Porter were outstanding, and possibly good enough to stay on First Team. But ultimately I can’t justify putting them ahead of the guys I listed. Davis would have been a sophomore; Kyrie would have been a junior; Leonard, Wall, and Cousins seniors. No idea whom to select as Player of the Year; I’m going with Cousins more or less at random.
2013-14
First Team
Actual
Modified
Nick Johnson
Anthony Davis
Doug McDermott
Doug McDermott
Shabazz Napier
Kyrie Irving
Jabari Parker
Andre Drummond
Russ Smith
Trey Burke
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Cleanthony Early
Victor Oladipo
C. J. Fair
Bradley Beal
Sean Kilpatrick
Jared Sullinger
Nik Stauskas
Otto Porter
T. J. Warren
Tristan Thompson
Andrew Wiggins
Jabari Parker
As often happens, the guys who got bumped last year (Burke, McDermott, Oladipo) reappear this year, and this time Burke and McDermott get that First Team spot. They are joined by Davis, Irving, and Andre Drummond. Bradley Beal and Tristan Thompson get a spot on Second Team. Player of the Year was between “junior” Davis and “senior” Irving; tough call but I’m going with AD.
2014-15
First Team
Actual
Modified
Willie Cauley-Stein
Andre Drummond
Jerian Grant
Anthony Davis
Frank Kaminsky
Frank Kaminsky
Jahlil Okafor
Trey Burke
D’Angelo Russell
Bradley Beal
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Malcolm Brogdon
Otto Porter
Bobby Portis
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Karl-Anthony Towns
Cody Zeller
Seth Tuttle
Jabari Parker
Kyle Wiltjer
Jahlil Okafor
Delon Wright
Andrew Wiggins
Davis becomes a two-time National Player of the Year. Drummond and Burke make First Team for the second time, and they are joined by Bradley Beal. Frank Kaminsky deservedly hangs onto a First Team spot. A few guys who made Actual Second Team in previous years (Kidd-Gilchrist, Zeller, Wiggins) get a spot on the hypothetical Second Team this year.
2015-16
First Team
Actual
Modified
Malcolm Brogdon
Willie Cauley-Stein
Buddy Hield
Buddy Hield
Brice Johnson
Andrew Wiggins
Ben Simmons
Karl-Anthony Towns
Tyler Ulis
Jabari Parker
Denzel Valentine
D’Angelo Russell
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Kris Dunn
Denzel Valentine
Perry Ellis
Jahlil Okafor
Georges Niang
T. J. Warren
Jakob Pöltl
Malcolm Brogdon
Jarrod Uthoff
Marcus Smart
Once again, no idea who would have won Player of the Year from this group. I’m going to give it to Towns, because he was the best of these players in the NBA in 2015-16. But maybe Buddy Hield would have held on. TJ Warren, Denzel Valentine, and Marcus Smart get Second Team spots in their “senior” years.
2016-17
First Team
Actual
Modified
Lonzo Ball
Andrew Wiggins
Josh Hart
Karl-Anthony Towns
Justin Jackson
Jabari Parker
Frank Mason III
Frank Mason III
Caleb Swanigan
D’Angelo Russell
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Dillon Brooks
Josh Hart
Luke Kennard
Aaron Gordon
Malik Monk
Devin Booker
Johnathan Motley
Zach LaVine
Nigel Williams-Goss
Myles Turner
I went with Towns as POY last year, so I have to stick with him. Wiggins, Parker, and Russell are also repeats from last year. Frank Mason hangs onto a First Team spot. Second Team features a bunch of good young NBA players, led by Devin Booker and Myles Turner. Also note that Ben Simmons was injured this year, so I left him out.
Speaking of injuries, I’m not sure what to do with Joel Embiid. He was a freshman in 2013-14; missed 2015 and 2016 with injuries; played 31 games in 2017 and was a stud. Call him an honorable mention.
2017-18
First Team
Actual
Modified
Deandre Ayton
D’Angelo Russell
Marvin Bagley III
Karl-Anthony Towns
Jalen Brunson
Ben Simmons
Devonte’ Graham
Lonzo Ball
Trae Young
Myles Turner
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Keita Bates-Diop
Jayson Tatum
Trevon Bluiett
Devin Booker
Miles Bridges
Jalen Brunson
Jevon Carter
Trae Young
Keenan Evans
Jakob Pöltl
Jock Landale
Donovan Mitchell
Karl-Anthony Towns becomes the fourth player to be National Player of the Year three times, along with Bill Walton, David Thompson, and hypothetical LeBron James. Ben Simmons leaps onto First Team. Brunson and Trae Young hang onto Second Team spots.
2018-19
First Team
Actual
Modified
RJ Barrett
Ben Simmons
Rui Hachimura
Lonzo Ball
Ja Morant
Jayson Tatum
Grant Williams
Trae Young
Zion Williamson
Zion Williamson
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Jarrett Culver
Grant Williams
Carsen Edwards
Donovan Mitchell
Ethan Happ
Jalen Brunson
Markus Howard
Bam Adebayo
Cassius Winston
Jamal Murray
This is a really interesting team. You have to keep Zion on there. Simmons, Ball, Tatum, and Trae Young round out the First Team. Who is the Player of the Year? Could one of those three have topped Zion? I’m going with Simmons.
I started working on this because I hoped it would shed some light on how to compare college basketball players from different eras. In particular, how should I regard a modern player who makes First Team All-American, compared to a player from the ’60s or ’70s? Are those equivalent accomplishments? I think the clear answer is, they are not. Many, perhaps most, modern All-Americans would not have made the team if they were playing against the best players in their age group.
In this series, I am recreating the All-American teams as they would have been if all (US-based) players went to college for 4 years. Part 1 and Part 2 focused on the 1970s/1980s and 1990s respectively. In Part 3, we’ll focus on the 2000s. During this decade, early entry (or skipping college altogether) continued to grow in popularity. While I don’t have a comprehensive list of players who turned pro early or skipped college altogether, one way to see the growth is to look at the number of NBA players under the age of 22, by season:
Season
# of NBA Players Under Age 22
1992-93
3
1993-94
4
1994-95
6
1995-96
10
1996-97
15
1997-98
19
1998-99
22
1999-00
23
2000-01
31
2001-02
41
2002-03
34
2003-04
30
2004-05
39
2005-06
50
2006-07
47
2007-08
42
2008-09
39
The growing number of college age players in the NBA makes the task of reassessing the All-American teams that much harder. Each season, there are tens of players to consider. But I did my best. So here we go. I’m changing my color scheme a bit; in this post, NBA players in are red and Naismith Player of the Year Award winners are in bold.
1999-2000
First Team
Actual
Modified
Chris Carrawell
Elton Brand
Marcus Fizer
Kobe Bryant
A. J. Guyton
Mike Bibby
Kenyon Martin
Kenyon Martin
Chris Mihm
Steve Francis
Troy Murphy
Richard Hamilton
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Courtney Alexander
Baron Davis
Shane Battier
A.J. Guyton
Mateen Cleaves
Marcus Fizer
Scoonie Penn
Lamar Odom
Morris Peterson
Ron Artest
Stromile Swift
Tracy McGrady
Kobe, in his “senior” season, is a shoo-in for Player of the Year. Then you have Elton Brand, the year after he actually won National POY; Mike Bibby and Rip Hamilton, who were first teamers the year before; and Steve Francis, who was a second teamer the year before. Kenyon Martin stays on first team, Guyton and Carrawell get bumped to second team, and everybody else is bumped entirely. Second team features 4 twenty-year olds who were already solid NBA players in Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, Ron Artest/Metta World Peace, and Tracy McGrady. I just don’t see Carrawell, Murphy, or Chris Mihm making it over those guys.
2000-01
First Team
Actual
Modified
Shane Battier
Shane Battier
Joseph Forte
Elton Brand
Casey Jacobsen
Tracy McGrady
Troy Murphy
Lamar Odom
Jason Williams
Baron Davis
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Troy Bell
Ron Artest
Michael Bradley
Chris Mihm
Tayshaun Prince
Marcus Fizer
Jason Richardson
Jason Williams
Jamaal Tinsley
Larry Hughes
The first thing to say here is that if Brand had actually been playing in this his “senior” year, that Duke team would have been the greatest team of all time. Battier won National POY and I kept him on First Team, joined by Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, McGrady, and Brand, all “seniors” except for the junior Odom. TMac gets the nod as POY. Chris Mihm and Marcus Fizer get some love after getting bumped last year, and Larry Hughes sneaks onto Second Team. Joseph Forte, sorry dude, you had a whale of a year but I don’t see you making it as a sophomore over these seniors.
2001-02
First Team
Actual
Modified
Dan Dickau
Lamar Odom
Juan Dixon
Juan Dixon
Drew Gooden
Drew Gooden
Steve Logan
Troy Murphy
Jason Williams
Jason Williams
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Sam Clancy
Joseph Forte
Mike Dunleavy, Jr.
Stromile Swift
Casey Jacobsen
Mike Miller
Jared Jeffries
Jason Richardson
David West
Rashard Lewis
2002 and 2003 represent a bit of a lull in the incredible young talent in the NBA. It’s the period between Kobe/TMac and LeBron/Carmelo. So in 2002, I kept three of the first teamers in place. Jason Williams loses his POY to Lamar Odom, and Troy Murphy finally gets a well-deserved spot on First Team. Second Team is a clean sweep of NBA players, including Forte, with some redemption from getting bumped the year before.
2002-03
First Team
Actual
Modified
Nick Collison
Joseph Forte
T. J. Ford
Gilbert Arenas
Josh Howard
Jay Williams
Dwayne Wade
Drew Gooden
David West
Jason Richardson
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Carmelo Anthony
T.J. Ford
Troy Bell
David West
Jason Gardner
Josh Howard
Kyle Korver
Dwayne Wade
Hollis Price
Mike Dunleavy
Jay Williams finally gets that National POY award. He is joined on First Team by four other NBA players. Most of the actual First Teamers get bumped to Second Team.
2003-04
First Team
Actual
Modified
Andre Emmett
Carmelo Anthony
Ryan Gomes
Dwayne Wade
Jameer Nelson
Jameer Nelson
Emeka Okafor
Emeka Okafor
Lawrence Roberts
LeBron James
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Josh Childress
Chris Bosh
Devin Harris
Chris Kaman
Julius Hodge
T.J. Ford
Luke Jackson
Lawrence Roberts
Blake Stepp
Zach Randolph
LeBron is here. I was tempted to give him National POY four times, but I think senior Dwayne Wade was better than freshman LeBron. Sophomore Carmelo is on First Team as well, along with two college players who stayed in Jameer Nelson and Emeka Okafor.
2004-05
First Team
Actual
Modified
Andrew Bogut
Andrew Bogut
Dee Brown
Carmelo Anthony
Chris Paul
Emeka Okafor
J. J. Redick
Tyson Chandler
Wayne Simien
Dwight Howard
Hakim Warrick
LeBron James
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Ike Diogu
Chris Paul
Luther Head
J. J. Redick
Sean May
Wayne Simien
Salim Stoudamire
Luol Deng
Deron Williams
T.J. Ford
I think this might be my favorite team. LeBron, Tyson Chandler, Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Carmelo, and Andrew Bogut. It sounds like an NBA All-Star Team. Poor Dee Brown and Hakim Warrick never had a chance.
2005-06
First Team
Actual
Modified
Randy Foye
Carmelo Anthony
Adam Morrison
LeBron James
J. J. Redick
Chris Bosh
Brandon Roy
Dwight Howard
Shelden Williams
Chris Paul
Second Team
Dee Brown
Andrew Bogut
Rodney Carney
Luol Deng
Rudy Gay
J. J. Redick
Tyler Hansbrough
Adam Morrison
Leon Powe
Sean May
Allan Ray
Ike Diogu
P. J. Tucker
Deron Williams
No, I take it back, I think THIS is my favorite team. I couldn’t even find a spot for Andrew Bogut.
2006-07
First Team
Actual
Modified
Arron Afflalo
Chris Paul
Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant
Tyler Hansbrough
LeBron James
Acie Law IV
Dwight Howard
Alando Tucker
Andrew Bogut
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Jared Dudley
Adam Morrison
Nick Fazekas
Luol Deng
Chris Lofton
Al Jefferson
Joakim Noah
LaMarcus Aldridge
Greg Oden
Alando Tucker
Bosh and Carmelo have finally “graduated” and are replaced by Bogut and Kevin Durant. LeBron wins his third straight National POY Award. Luol Deng, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Al Jefferson round out the Second Team, with Alando Tucker managing to hang on to a spot.
2007-08
First Team
Actual
Modified
D. J. Augustin
LaMarcus Aldridge
Michael Beasley
Kevin Durant
Chris Douglas-Roberts
Dwight Howard
Tyler Hansbrough
Tyler Hansbrough
Kevin Love
Chris Paul
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Stephen Curry
Monta Ellis
Shan Foster
Rudy Gay
Luke Harangody
Arron Afflalo
Roy Hibbert
Michael Beasley
Chris Lofton
Joakim Noah
D. J. White
Al Jefferson
Player of the Year was a tough call here, but I had to go with Chris Paul as a senior. He was already a stud in the NBA. Also, Tyler Hansbrough stays on First Team; looking at the guys who made Second Team, I don’t see a good reason to rank any of them over Hansbrough. Rudy Gay, Arron Afflalo, and Joakim Noah reappear on Second Team, a year or two after they actually made it.
2008-09
First Team
Actual
Modified
DeJuan Blair
Michael Beasley
Stephen Curry
Kevin Durant
Blake Griffin
Blake Griffin
Tyler Hansbrough
Tyler Hansbrough
James Harden
Kevin Love
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Sherron Collins
Rudy Gay
Luke Harangody
James Harden
Ty Lawson
Stephen Curry
Jodie Meeks
Brook Lopez
Jeff Teague
Derrick Rose
Hasheem Thabeet
DJ Augustin
I had to go with the “junior” Durant as Player of the Year. Kevin Love edges out James Harden for the last spot on First Team.
This is Part 2 of my series in which I’m re-imagining All-American teams for my fantasy world in which all great basketball players play for 4 years in college. In Part 1, we looked at the 1970s and 1980s. In this initial phase, going all the way through 1994, the pattern was quite similar. Each year there were 3-5 players in the NBA who had left college early. While many of these players were great college players, the volume was not enough to really make a mark on the broader landscape of college basketball. It was a blip on the radar. College basketball still had 99.9% of the players of college age, and even 99% of the really good ones. 1995 marks the point at which this began to change. Early departures spiked in 1995 and began the rapid increase which has continued practically to this day, and which has transformed college basketball.
As in Part 1, NBA players are in red and National Players of the Year (Naismith Award) winners are in bold.
1989-90
First Team
Actual
Modified
Derrick Coleman
Derrick Coleman
Chris Jackson
Chris Jackson
Larry Johnson
Larry Johnson
Gary Payton
Gary Payton
Lionel Simmons
Lionel Simmons
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Hank Gathers
Hank Gathers
Kendall Gill
JR Reid
Bo Kimble
Bo Kimble
Alonzo Mourning
Nick Anderson
Rumeal Robinson
Rumeal Robinson
Dennis Scott
Dennis Scott
Doug Smith
Doug Smith
No changes here to first team. And – spoiler alert – this is the last year for which that will be true. I debated putting Rex Chapman on the second team, but couldn’t decide whom to take off.
1990-91
First Team
Actual
Modified
Kenny Anderson
Dennis Scott
Jimmy Jackson
Chris Jackson
Larry Johnson
Larry Johnson
Shaquille O’Neal
Shaquille O’Neal
Billy Owens
Shawn Kemp
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Stacey Augmon
Stacey Augmon
Keith Jennings
Kenny Anderson
Christian Laettner
Christian Laettner
Eric Murdock
Jimmy Jackson
Steve Smith
Billy Owens
Pretty good squad here, don’t you think? Can you imagine Dennis Scott and Chris Jackson/Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf on the same team? Not enough basketballs to go around. And I have to get Shawn Kemp in there.
1991-92
First Team
Actual
Modified
Jimmy Jackson
Jimmy Jackson
Christian Laettner
Christian Laettner
Harold Miner
Kenny Anderson
Alonzo Mourning
Shawn Kemp
Shaquille O’Neal
Shaquille O’Neal
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Byron Houston
Byron Houston
Don MacLean
Harold Miner
Anthony Peeler
Alonzo Mourning
Malik Sealy
Malik Sealy
Walt Williams
Billy Owens
All due respect to Harold Miner aka “Baby Jordan”, but I have to get Kenny Anderson as a senior in there. And Shawn Kemp, who I strongly considered for Player of the Year, but in the end I stuck with Laettner. Alonzo Mourning was a great player, but somebody had to make room for Kemp.
1992-93
First Team
Actual
Modified
Calbert Cheaney
Calbert Cheaney
Penny Hardaway
Harold Miner
Bobby Hurley
Jimmy Jackson
Jamal Mashburn
Jamal Mashburn
Chris Webber
Shaquille O’Neal
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Terry Dehere
Penny Hardaway
Grant Hill
Grant Hill
Billy McCaffrey
Bobby Hurley
Eric Montross
Chris Webber
J. R. Rider
J. R. Rider
Glenn Robinson
Glenn Robinson
Rodney Rogers
Rodney Rogers
An easy player of the year pick with Shaq over Calbert Cheaney. Harold Miner and Jimmy Jackson bump Penny Hardaway and Bobby Hurley to second team.
1993-94
First Team
Actual
Modified
Grant Hill
Penny Hardaway
Jason Kidd
Jason Kidd
Donyell Marshall
Chris Webber
Glenn Robinson
Glenn Robinson
Clifford Rozier
Jamal Mashburn
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Melvin Booker
Rodney Rogers
Eric Montross
Grant Hill
Lamond Murray
Donyell Marshall
Khalid Reeves
Clifford Rozier
Jalen Rose
Jalen Rose
Corliss Williamson
Corliss Williamson
I don’t feel great about bumping Grant Hill to second team, but something has to give. Penny, Webber, and Mashburn have to be there. Player of the Year is a really tough call here, but I’m going with Mashburn.
1994-95
First Team
Actual
Modified
Ed O’Bannon
Chris Webber
Shawn Respert
Donyell Marshall
Joe Smith
Glenn Robinson
Jerry Stackhouse
Jalen Rose
Damon Stoudamire
Jason Kidd
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Randolph Childress
Ed O’Bannon
Kerry Kittles
Shawn Respert
Lou Roe
Joe Smith
Rasheed Wallace
Clifford Rozier
Corliss Williamson
Juwan Howard
This is the year that everything changed. In addition to Webber, who came out the year before, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jason Kidd, Donyell Marshall, Clifford Rozier, Lamond Murray, and the Big Dog all came out early. This included four of the five first-teamers from the previous year. Joe Smith was National Player of the Year, and he was a great, great, player; but in the end, I couldn’t find a spot for him.
1995-96
First Team
Actual
Modified
Ray Allen
Corliss Williamson
Marcus Camby
Marcus Camby
Tony Delk
Jason Kidd
Tim Duncan
Jerry Stackhouse
Allen Iverson
Joe Smith
Kerry Kittles
Rasheed Wallace
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Danny Fortson
Ray Allen
Keith Van Horn
Tim Duncan
Jacque Vaughn
Allen Iverson
John Wallace
Kerry Kittles
Lorenzen Wright
Gary Trent
Some incredible players getting bumped here, including Ray Allen, Tim Duncan, and Allen Iverson. I’m not necessarily convinced that Duncan would have been the fourth-best player in the ACC had Smith, Stackhouse, and Wallace stayed. I’m only sorry that we didn’t get to find out. What a year it would have been in the ACC. Notice too that Gary Trent, the “Shaq of the MAC”, slips onto Second Team.
1996-97
First Team
Actual
Modified
Tim Duncan
Tim Duncan
Danny Fortson
Joe Smith
Raef LaFrentz
Kevin Garnett
Ron Mercer
Marcus Camby
Keith Van Horn
Jerry Stackhouse
Second Team
Actual
Modi
Chauncey Billups
Rasheed Wallace
Bobby Jackson
Antonio McDyess
Antawn Jamison
Allen Iverson
Brevin Knight
Ray Allen
Jacque Vaughn
Keith Van Horn
The only thing better than imagining Duncan, Stackhouse, Wallace, and Smith as junior is imagining them as seniors. And yet, I couldn’t put them all on First Team because of another emerging star – 19-year old Kevin Garnett. This team is so good that Allen Iverson and Ray Allen can’t crack First Team either.
1997-98
First Team
Actual
Modified
Mike Bibby
Allen Iverson
Antawn Jamison
Antawn Jamison
Raef LaFrentz
Raef LaFrentz
Paul Pierce
Kevin Garnett
Miles Simon
Ron Mercer
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Vince Carter
Danny Fortson
Mateen Cleaves
Kobe Bryant
Pat Garrity
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Richard Hamilton
Stephon Marbury
Ansu Sesay
Mike Bibby
Allen Iverson finally makes it to First Team as a senior. Notice a couple of new names making their debuts on Second Team – sophomore Kobe Bryant and junior Paul Pierce. The last spot on Second Team was a tough call between Bibby and Raef LaFrentz.
1998-99
First Team
Actual
Modified
Elton Brand
Paul Pierce
Mateen Cleaves
Kobe Bryant
Richard Hamilton
Ron Mercer
Andre Miller
Kevin Garnett
Jason Terry
Antawn Jamison
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Evan Eschmeyer
Elton Brand
Steve Francis
Andre Miller
Trajan Langdon
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Chris Porter
Stephon Marbury
Wally Szczerbiak
Mike Bibby
Another clean sweep. Elton Brand, you had a really nice year, but who am I leaving off to keep you on First Team? Kobe? Garnett? Paul Pierce? Jamison? I can’t find a spot. I feel bad about leaving Andre Miller off as well, but I don’t see where to put him. Stephon Marbury as a senior, Rip Hamilton and Bibby as juniors, these guys have to be on the list.
The quality of play in college basketball has declined over the past 25 years or so. I think that conclusion is inevitable for anyone who thinks about it for a few minutes. When most of the top 19, 20, and 21 year olds are in the NBA, how could it be otherwise?
But how much has it declined? It’s impossible to answer this precisely, but I thought of one fun way to think about it. What if we had preserved the conditions that obtained until the mid-1970s, which is to say, everyone played in college, and nobody left early. How would that have affected the All-American teams over the years?
So I’ve been digging through the Consensus First and Second Team All-American rosters since about 1975, looking at the best players who were college age but already in the NBA, and trying to figure out who would have made All-American had they still been in college, and which of the guys who made the actual team would have been displaced.
One of the things I hope to gain from this is to get an idea of how much these honors have been cheapened over the years. For example, Jared Sullinger and Danny Manning both made First Team All-American twice. Does that make Sullinger as good as Manning? Manning was competing against the best players of his age group, save two or three. By the time Sullinger came along, there were probably 60 guys who were college age who weren’t there anymore. Would Sullinger still have been an All-American if all those guys had been in college? That’s what I’m trying to determine.
Of course this is a speculative exercise. Nobody really knows how good, say, Moses Malone would have been in college. And since nobody knows, I figure my opinion is as good as anybody else’s. In a few cases, it’s easy. If a guy made First Team as a junior and then turned pro (Shaquille O’Neal), it seems a safe bet that he would have made it as a senior. And then there are the no-brainers. You think LeBron and Kobe would have been All-Americans? Probably a safe bet.
But in a lot of cases, it requires looking at the college and NBA performance of the players in question, and making a judgment call, which I did as best I could. I’ll offer some explanation of my decisions as we go along. Which you probably won’t agree with, and isn’t that the fun of these “what if?” games?
Without further ado, let’s get started.
1974-75
First Team
Actual
Modified
Adrian Dantley
Adrian Dantley
John Lucas
Moses Malone
Scott May
Scott May
Dave Meyers
Dave Meyers
David Thompson
David Thompson
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Luther Burden
Luther Burden
Leon Douglas
Leon Douglas
Kevin Grevey
Kevin Grevey
Ron Lee
Ron Lee
Gus Williams
John Lucas
Moses Malone got it all started. He was an NBA All-Star as a rookie in 1975, so I’m going to guess he would have been an All-American. John Lucas or Scott May are the most likely to have been pushed down; I’m going with Lucas.
1975-76
First Team
Actual
Modified
Kent Benson
Kent Benson
Adrian Dantley
Adrian Dantley
John Lucas
Moses Malone
Scott May
Scott May
Richard Washington
Richard Washington
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Phil Ford
Phil Ford
Bernard King
Bernard King
Mitch Kupchak
Mitch Kupchak
Phil Sellers
Phil Sellers
Earl Tatum
John Lucas
Sorry John.
1976-77
First Team
Actual
Modified
Kent Benson
Kent Benson
Otis Birdsong
Adrian Dantley
Phil Ford
Phil Ford
Rickey Green
Rickey Green
Marques Johnson
Richard Washington
Bernard King
Moses Malone
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Greg Ballard
Otis Birdsong
Bill Cartwright
Bill Cartwright
Rod Griffin
Marques Johnson
Ernie Grunfeld
Ernie Grunfeld
Phil Hubbard
Phil Hubbard
Butch Lee
Bernard King
Mychal Thompson
Mychal Thompson
Dantley and Washington were first teamers the year before, so they have to be on the list. And Moses is still around. It’s hard to say who would have been displaced, but I’m guessing that if Washington were still around, there wouldn’t have been enough shots for Marques Johnson. Birdsong and Bernard King are the other guys whose spots on First Team seem the most tenuous.
1977-78
First Team
Actual
Modified
Larry Bird
Larry Bird
Phil Ford
Phil Ford
David Greenwood
David Greenwood
Butch Lee
Butch Lee
Mychal Thompson
Bernard King
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Ron Brewer
Ron Brewer
Jack Givens
Jack Givens
Rod Griffin
Mychal Thompson
Rick Robey
Rick Robey
Freeman Williams
Freeman Williams
In this season, we have Bernard King, Darryl Dawkins, and Kenny Carr to worry about. I think Bernard is a safe bet for first team, and Mychal Thompson is the victim. Dawkins was never a great player, and wasn’t at his peak yet in 1978, so I’m leaving him off. Carr very well could have been an All-American had he returned, but I’m giving the other guys the benefit of the doubt.
1978-79
First Team
Actual
Modified
Larry Bird
Larry Bird
Mike Gminski
Mike Gminski
David Greenwood
David Greenwood
Magic Johnson
Magic Johnson
Sidney Moncrief
Sidney Moncrief
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Bill Cartwright
Bill Cartwright
Calvin Natt
Calvin Natt
Mike O’Koren
Mike O’Koren
Jim Paxson
Jim Paxson
Jim Spanarkel
Jim Spanarkel
Kelly Tripucka
Kelly Tripucka
Sly Williams
Sly Williams
No changes from the actual team.
1979-80
First Team
Actual
Modified
Mark Aguirre
Mark Aguirre
Michael Brooks
Magic Johnson
Joe Barry Carroll
Joe Barry Carroll
Darrell Griffith
Darrell Griffith
Kyle Macy
Kyle Macy
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Mike Gminski
Mike Gminski
Albert King
Albert King
Mike O’Koren
Mike O’Koren
Kelvin Ransey
Michael Brooks
Sam Worthen
Sam Worthen
Gotta make room for Magic Johnson. Sorry, Michael Brooks. Cliff Robinson is also worthy of consideration, but I’m not sure he was All-American caliber at age 19. Wait until next year.
1980-81
First Team
Actual
Modified
Mark Aguirre
Mark Aguirre
Danny Ainge
Danny Ainge
Steve Johnson
Magic Johnson
Ralph Sampson
Ralph Sampson
Isiah Thomas
Isiah Thomas
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Sam Bowie
Sam Bowie
Jeff Lamp
Jeff Lamp
Rudy Macklin
Rudy Macklin
Kelly Tripucka
Kelly Tripucka
Danny Vranes
Cliff Robinson
Al Wood
Steve Johnson
Same two guys, Magic and Cliff Robinson. Robinson averaged 19.5 PPG in the NBA, so I’m going to say he would be at least a second teamer. Steve Johnson gets knocked down to Second Team, and Danny Vranes and Al Wood are out.
1981-82
First Team
Actual
Modified
Terry Cummings
Terry Cummings
Quintin Dailey
Quintin Dailey
Eric Floyd
Mark Aguirre
Ralph Sampson
Ralph Sampson
James Worthy
Isiah Thomas
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Dale Ellis
Dale Ellis
Kevin Magee
Kevin Magee
John Paxson
Eric Floyd
Sam Perkins
James Worthy
Paul Pressey
Paul Pressey
Isiah Thomas and Mark Aguirre have to be on the list. It was hard to say who would be displaced, but it wouldn’t be Cummings or Sampson, so I picked Sleepy Floyd and James Worthy. The other player who came out early is Buck Williams. He’s a hard player to rank; he was a very good, but not All-American caliber player at Maryland. However he was outstanding in the NBA from the beginning. Perhaps he would’ve had a great senior season and been an All-American, but again I’m erring on the side of giving the benefit of the doubt to the guys who stayed.
1982-83
First Team
Actual
Modified
Dale Ellis
Terry Cummings
Patrick Ewing
Dominique Wilkins
Michael Jordan
Michael Jordan
Keith Lee
James Worthy
Sam Perkins
Isiah Thomas
Ralph Sampson
Ralph Sampson
Wayman Tisdale
Quintin Dailey
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Clyde Drexler
Clyde Drexler
Sidney Green
Keith Lee
John Paxson
John Paxson
Steve Stipanovich
Dale Ellis
Jon Sundvold
Patrick Ewing
Darrell Walker
Sam Perkins
Randy Wittman
Wayman Tisdale
Now it gets interesting. Early departures were Terry Cummings, Dominique Wilkins, James Worthy, Quintin Dailey, Clark Kellogg, LaSalle Thompson, and one more year of Isiah Thomas. Cummings, Worthy, Dailey, and Thomas are no-brainers. Considering how ‘Nique exploded onto the NBA scene, I think it’s fair to assume that he would have made the list. But the guys they are displacing are pretty darn good too. Tisdale and Ewing were sophomores, so they weren’t at their peaks yet. Sam Perkins gets the shaft again. I chose not to put Kellogg or Thompson on the second team, but both were excellent players and could have had an All-American caliber senior season.
1983-84
First Team
Actual
Modified
Patrick Ewing
Patrick Ewing
Michael Jordan
Michael Jordan
Akeem Olajuwon
Clyde Drexler
Sam Perkins
Sam Perkins
Wayman Tisdale
Wayman Tisdale
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Michael Cage
Akeem Olajuwon
Devin Durrant
Ennis Whatley
Keith Lee
Keith Lee
Chris Mullin
Chris Mullin
Melvin Turpin
Darrell Walker
Leon Wood
Leon Wood
In 1984 we have Clyde Drexler, Ennis Whatley, and Darrell Walker to deal with. Drexler and Walker made second team the year before, so they belong somewhere. I’m guessing that Clyde the Glide would have edged out his teammate Hakeem, and Darrell Walker bumps Melvin Turpin. Ennis Whatley was very close to making All-American the year before, so I’m going to give him the edge over Devin Durrant.
1984-85
First Team
Actual
Modified
Johnny Dawkins
Michael Jordan
Patrick Ewing
Patrick Ewing
Keith Lee
Keith Lee
Xavier McDaniel
Akeem Olajuwon
Chris Mullin
Chris Mullin
Wayman Tisdale
Wayman Tisdale
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Len Bias
Johnny Dawkins
Jon Koncak
Alvin Robertson
Mark Price
Ennis Whatley
Kenny Walker
Charles Barkley
Dwayne Washington
Xavier McDaniel
Jordan and Olajuwon have to be on First Team, obviously. Johnny Dawkins and Xavier McDaniel seem like the most likely candidates to get bumped. On Second Team, I’m going for a clean sweep, making room for Whatley again, Charles Barkley, and Alvin Robertson.
1985-86
First Team
Actual
Modified
Steve Alford
Wayman Tisdale
Walter Berry
Walter Berry
Len Bias
Len Bias
Johnny Dawkins
Johnny Dawkins
Kenny Walker
Kenny Walker
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Dell Curry
Benoit Benjamin
Brad Daugherty
Brad Daugherty
Ron Harper
Ron Harper
Danny Manning
Danny Manning
David Robinson
Steve Alford
Scott Skiles
Scott Skiles
Tisdale and Benoit Benjamin are the guys we have to make room for. I think Alford is the most likely candidate to get bumped. I’m guessing that Benjamin would have edged out Dell Curry.
1986-87
First Team
Actual
Modified
Steve Alford
Steve Alford
Danny Manning
Danny Manning
David Robinson
David Robinson
Kenny Smith
Dwayne Washington
Reggie Williams
William Bedford
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Armon Gilliam
Armon Gilliam
Horace Grant
Kenny Smith
Dennis Hopson
Dennis Hopson
Mark Jackson
Mark Jackson
Ken Norman
Reggie Williams
Early departures this year were Pearl Washington, William Bedford, and John “Hot Plate” Williams. Washington and Bedford were borderline All-American caliber players the year before, so I’m going to guess they would have made it. Hot Plate was good, but wait another year.
1987-88
First Team
Actual
Modified
Sean Elliott
Sean Elliott
Gary Grant
Gary Grant
Hersey Hawkins
Hersey Hawkins
Danny Manning
Danny Manning
J.R. Reid
Derrick McKey
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Danny Ferry
Danny Ferry
Jerome Lane
John Williams
Mark Macon
Mark Macon
Mitch Richmond
J.R. Reid
Rony Seikaly
Rony Seikaly
Michael Smith
Michael Smith
It’s only Derrick McKey and Hot Plate this time. McKey was excellent, borderline All-American the year before, so I’m giving him the nod over J.R. Reid. Williams gets the nod over Jerome Lane.
1988-89
First Team
Actual
Modified
Sean Elliott
Sean Elliott
Pervis Ellison
Jerome Lane
Danny Ferry
Danny Ferry
Chris Jackson
Chris Jackson
Stacey King
Stacey King
Second Team
Actual
Modified
Mookie Blaylock
Mookie Blaylock
Sherman Douglas
Sherman Douglas
Jay Edwards
Jay Edwards
Todd Lichti
Rod Strickland
Glen Rice
Pervis Ellison
Lionel Simmons
Lionel Simmons
Jerome Lane gets his revenge, sending “Never Nervous” Pervis Ellison down to Second Team. We also have Rod Strickland and Rex Chapman to deal with. Each of them has a case, but I’m going to wait a year on Chapman. Strickland gets the nod over Todd Lichti.
There were a few games involving bubble teams yesterday, in games they needed to win. Not because it helps their resume, but more because losing hurts it. NC State, Indiana, and Arkansas won; Stanford and Xavier did not. Stanford is now my last team in the field.
Seed
Team 1
Team 2
Team 3
Team 4
Team 5
Team 6
1
Kansas
Baylor
Gonzaga
Dayton
2
Villanova
Florida State
San Diego St.
Maryland
3
Creighton
Kentucky
Michigan St.
Duke
4
Seton Hall
Oregon
Auburn
Louisville
5
West Virginia
Butler
Wisconsin
Ohio St.
6
LSU
BYU
Penn State
Virginia
7
Iowa
Houston
Arizona
Marquette
8
Colorado
Illinois
Michigan
Rutgers
9
St. Mary’s
Providence
Florida
Oklahoma
10
Arizona St.
USC
Utah State
Wichita St.
11
Xavier
Texas Tech
Indiana
Richmond
UCLA
Stanford
12
North Texas
E. Tenn. St.
Yale
Vermont
13
Akron
New Mexico St.
Stephen F. Austin
E. Washington
14
Belmont
Hofstra
Liberty
Bradley
15
N. Kentucky
UC Irvine
N. Dakota St.
Little Rock
16
Boston U.
Winthrop
Siena
Robert Morris
Prairie View A&M
NC Central
Checking In: Boston U., Northern Kentucky, Robert Morris
Dropping Out: Colgate, Wright State, St. Francis (PA)
Last 4 Byes: Arizona State, Wichita St., Indiana, Texas Tech
Last 4 In: Xavier, UCLA, Richmond, Stanford
First 4 Out: Texas, NC State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State
Next 4 Out: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Memphis, St. Louis
I thought about copying and pasting this article from last year and see if anyone would notice… it does seems to be a rite of spring for Kevin Keatts’ Wolfpack – the Bubble Watch. And this year is no different. The Wolfpack’s profile is quite different from last year, when they played a weak non-conference schedule and lacked marquee wins. This year, they beat Wisconsin and Duke at home and Virginia on the road, so they have enough good wins, but sweeps at the hands of Carolina and Georgia Tech, along with a loss at Boston College, have seemingly cancelled out those good wins. And so the Wolfpack find themselves right around the cut line. Again.
There are lots of ways to look at this, but the one I like is this one. There are 68 teams in the field. 12 teams have already punched their tickets:
Atlantic Sun: Liberty
Big South: Winthrop
Colonial Athletic: Hofstra
Horizon League: Northern Kentucky
Ivy League: Yale
Missouri Valley: Bradley
Mountain West: Utah State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Southern: East Tennessee State
Summit League: North Dakota State
West Coast: Gonzaga
That leaves 56 bids. Of the 56, 12 more will come from the champions of one-bid leagues:
America East
Big Sky
Big West
Conference USA
MAAC
MAC
MEAC
Patriot
Southland
Southwestern Athletic
Sun Belt
WAC
So that leaves 44 bids, 36 at-large bids and 8 bids for the champions of the multi-bid leagues whose tournaments are not yet decided:
ACC
American Athletic
Atlantic 10
Big 10
Big 12
Big East
PAC 12
SEC
I am making the call that there are 36 locks for those 44 bids:
Arizona Auburn Baylor Butler BYU Colorado Creighton Dayton Duke Florida Florida State Houston Illinois Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisville LSU Marquette Maryland Michigan Michigan State Ohio State Oklahoma Oregon Penn State Providence Rutgers St. Mary’s San Diego State Seton Hall USC Villanova Virginia West Virginia Wisconsin
I feel a little bit nervous calling Rutgers and Oklahoma locks, but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
So we’re down to 8 bids left. And I would say that there are 11 teams in serious contention for those 8 bids:
Arizona State Cincinnati Indiana NC State Richmond Stanford Texas Texas Tech UCLA Wichita State Xavier
Now, always keep in mind the possibility of bid stealers. The way to think about bid stealers is this: if any team that is a) from one of the 8 multi-bid leagues above and b) NOT on the “Locks” list above wins a conference tournament – they grab one of the 8 up-for-grabs bids, leaving one less for everyone else.
If that doesn’t happen, then 8 of the 11 teams above will get in. There are still a couple of other teams that can’t be ruled out for an at-large if they make a deep run in the conference tourney – Mississippi State, possibly Purdue. But most likely, the 8 bids will come from those 11 teams.
Of those 11 teams, the conventional wisdom, which I agree with, is that 4 of the 11 – Arizona State, Indiana, Texas Tech, and Xavier will probably get in, barring an early conference tournament loss. Now I want to say that this is not a guarantee. None of the 11 teams I listed should be shocked to not hear their name called on Selection Sunday. That’s why I didn’t call them Locks. TCU was in a similar position last year, and they were left out. But I think that unless those teams get upset by a bad team in their tournaments, they will probably make it.
That leaves 4 bids to be split among Cincinnati, NC State, Richmond, Stanford, Texas, UCLA, and Wichita State.
Cincinnati and Wichita State would meet in the semifinals of the AAC Tournament on Saturday if both win on Friday. It’s tempting to call that an “elimination game”. I’m not certain of that, but I think Cincinnati especially would have a real uphill climb if they don’t win that game.
Richmond plays the winner of Davidson-LaSalle on Thursday, then probably Rhode Island in the semis if they win. I think if the Spiders can beat Rhode Island, they’ll probably make it. If not, they’re in trouble.
UCLA and Stanford may also be headed for an elimination game in the quarters of the Pac-12 tomorrow. Stanford first has to beat Cal tonight. UCLA has a very strange resume. They’re really low in the NET (#76) and they have some terrible losses – but they have 6 Quadrant 1 wins and, in my opinion, are in the field right now. I think there is a decent chance that both of these teams make it, but the loser of tomorrow’s game is going to be sweating.
Texas is also a weird team. They’re also low in the NET (#69), but for a different reason – they’ve been blown out a lot. They lost to West Virginia by 38, Providence by 22, Georgetown by 16, Iowa State by 29, and Oklahoma State by 22. BUT, they have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, 4 of which are on the road, and a home win against West Virginia. So good luck figuring them out. And, as luck would have it, they are matched up with… Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament. I’m loving these bubble team elimination games. I am saying that if Texas loses, they are out. Texas Tech I think could still have a chance with a loss.
So there you have it. If you’re a Wolfpack fan, you’re rooting for all of those other 10 teams to lose, and lose early. If they play each other, you’re rooting for the most vulnerable teams – probably Cincinnati and Texas – to lose.
And then of course you’re hoping for a win over Duke on Thursday, which would move the Wolfpack into Lock territory. If they don’t beat Duke, they are going to need a lot of help and a lot of luck, and I wouldn’t put their chances at more than 25%.