baseball – Mudville Analytics

Roy Face and the 1959 Pirates

Roy Face in 1959 went 18-1 as a reliever – the best single-season W-L% of all time for a pitcher with more than 12 decisions. Moreover, he did this for a mediocre Pirates team that went 78-76. How in the world did this happen?

First off, let’s give the man some credit – he pitched well. He had a 2.70 ERA and a 142 ERA+. But in 1962, he had a 1.88 ERA and went 8-7. In 1960 he had a 2.90 ERA and went 10-8. In 1967 he had a 2.42 ERA and went 7-5. So obviously the stars aligned somehow in 1959.

For a moment, it’s worth reminding ourselves how relievers get decisions. A reliever who enters a game with his team ahead or behind usually does not get a decision. Most of the time, he gets a decision only if the lead changes while he is in the game (or as a result of runners he is responsible for after leaving the game) and that lead is not relinquished. For a modern closer who enters the game only in a save situation, a decision is possible only if he blows the save. For a reliever who comes into a game trailing, a decision is possible only if his offense comes back and ties the game, regardless of how well he pitches.

The situation where a reliever has a good chance of getting a decision is a tie game. In a tie game, any run makes the current pitchers the pitchers of record. So the way for a reliever to pile up decisions is to enter lots of tie games.

Now, to come back to Roy Face in 1959. Looking at his game log, it really comes down to three things:

He entered a lot of tie games and pitched extremely well in those games.
He blew a lot of saves, creating a lot of W/L opportunities for himself.
He was the beneficiary of incredible, dramatic run support from his offense.

Tie Games

Face entered 12 tie games. In 2 of those games, he inherited runners who later scored, and Face did not get a decision. In the other 10 games, he entered with nobody on base. In those games, he went 10-0. Think about that. Ten times, Roy Face came into a tie ballgame with nobody on base. All ten times, Roy Face got the win. In seven of the ten, he did not give up a run, and just kept pitching until the Pirates scored. In the other 3 games, Face gave up one run and the lead, and would have gotten a loss had the Pirates not scored. All 3 times, the Pirates scored 2 runs in the bottom of the inning to walk it off and give Face the win.

Save Situations

Roy Face blew 9 saves in 19 opportunities in 1959 – a terrible percentage. In fact, this is one of only 19 seasons in MLB history in which a reliever has had a save percentage less than 53% with at least 18 opportunities. His ERA in his 19 save opportunities was 5.56. And somehow, in those 9 blown save games, he escaped with a 4-1 record. Here’s a rundown:

April 24 – entered bottom of 7^th with a one-run lead. Gave up 2 runs in the 8^th and was in line for a loss. Pirates scored 4 in the 9^th to win the game. Face gets the win.
May 12 – entered bottom of 8^th with a one-run lead. Allowed an inherited runner to score and tie the game. No decision.
May 14 – entered bottom of 8^th with a three run lead and 2 runners on. Allowed those 2 runs to score, plus one of his own, tie game. Dick Stuart homered in the 9^th to win the game for the Pirates. Face gets the win.
June 11 – entered top of 8^th with a two run lead and 2 runners on. Allowed those 2 runs to score, plus one of his own and was in line for a loss. Pirates put up 5 in the bottom of the 8^th. Face gets the win.
July 12 (game 1) – entered top of 8^th with a one run lead and 2 runners on. Got out of that jam, but allowed the tying run to score in the 9^th. Pirates won in the bottom of the 10^th. Face gets the win.
July 12 (game 2) – entered top of 9^th with a one run lead and 1 runner on. Allowed that run to score, plus one of his own, was removed from the game, was in line for a loss. Pirates tied it in the 9^th, taking Face off the hook. No decision.
July 30 – entered bottom of 7^th with a one run lead and nobody on. Gave up the tying run in the 8^th. Pirates eventually won in 12. No decision.
August 1 – entered bottom of 7^th with a one run lead and two on. Allowed both runs to score, plus 3 of his own. Got a no decision because the inherited runners were the responsibility of the prior reliever.
September 11 (game 1) – entered bottom of 8^th with a one run lead and one on. Got out of that, but his luck finally ran out in the bottom of the 9^th. Gave up 2 runs, the Dodgers walked it off, and Face, who had been 17-0, got his first and only L of the season.

Other Wins

Face won 3 games where he came into a game the Pirates were trailing:

May 13 – entered bottom of 7^th, Pirates down one. Pirates scored 3 in the 8^th to win.
August 9 – entered bottom of 8^th, Pirates down one. Gave up an unearned run in the 8^th. Pirates scored 2 in the 9^th to tie, and 2 more in the 10^th to win.
August 23 (game 2) – entered top of 9^th, Pirates down one. Pirates scored one in the 9^th to tie, one in the 10^th to win.

The only win we haven’t covered is from May 31 (game 2). Face was awarded the win under rule 9.17(b) – he was the most effective reliever in a game in which the starter did not go 5 innings.

What Does All This Tell Us About The 1959 Pirates?

The 1959 Pirates were an unremarkable team in most respects. They finished 4^th out of 8 NL teams, 10 games behind the pennant-winning Dodgers. They scored 651 runs and allowed 680 on the season. They had a poor offense overall; their total of 651 runs was 6^th in the NL. But they were quite possibly the greatest clutch hitting team the game has ever seen. Here are some of their records:

All-Time Single Season Walk-Off Wins, Team:

1 (tie): 1959 Pirates – 17 (out of 78 total wins)
1 (tie): 1977 Pirates – 17

Keep in mind that the 1977 Pirates played 162 games and they were actually good (96-66).

All-Time Single Season Extra Inning Wins, Team:

1: 1959 Pirates – 19
2(tie): 1988 Expos – 18
2(tie): 1949 Indians – 18

All-Time Single Season Winning Percentage in Extra-Inning Games, Team (min. 16 games):

1949 Indians, 18-1, .947
1959 Pirates, 19-2, .905

1959 Pirates Team OPS, by Inning:

Innings 1-3: .679
Innings 4-6: .659
Innings 7-9: .755
Extra Innings: 1.008 (The ’59 Pirates and the ’49 Indians are the only 2 teams in history with >1.000 OPS in extra innings, min. 180 PA)

Some Individual Slash Lines for ’59 Pirates in Extra Innings:

Mazeroski: .529 BA/.556 OBP/.647 SLG (19 PA)
Stuart: .636/.667/1.182 (12 PA)
Groat: .625/.647/1.335 (16 PA)
Virdon: .556/.667/.667 (16 PA)
Clemente: .455/.500/.455 (12 PA)
Mejias: .625/.700/1.000 (10 PA)

Best Single Season W-L%, Blown Save Games (min. 5 decisions)

5-1 Record: Dick Radatz 1964, Tyler Thornburg 2016
4-1 Record: Roy Face 1959, Dale Murray 1975, Ron Davis 1979, Jim Mecir 2000, LaTroy Hawkins 2004, Junior Guerra 2019

Conclusion

We all know about the 1960 Pirates. That team was essentially the same as the 1959 team, plus Vinegar Bend Mizell. I wonder if, somehow, their performance in tight games in 1959 was a predictor of clutch performances to come? Or if it in some way sparked that special 1960 season? It seems like there is a good book in there somewhere – or at least some good interviews. It’s still possible; at least 8 guys from the ’59 team are still living:

Bill Mazeroski, age 84
Dick Schofield, age 85
Bennie Daniels, age 88
Bob Skinner, age 89
Bill Virdon, age 89
Dick Groat, age 90
Vern Law, age 90
Roy Face, age 92

Somebody get their stories before it’s too late.

Note: The game of July 9 does not have a complete play-by-play record, so I’m not 100% sure that the game was tied when Face entered in the 8th. I am assuming that it was and including that game in the 12 tie games.

Jake Arrieta, GOAT

Jake Arrieta appears to be on the downside of his career. While we can’t rule out a resurgence, his ERA last year was 4.64, and he is 34 years old.

If Arrieta’s career is nearing the end, he will be remembered as an accomplished pitcher, but not a great one. From 2014 to 2017, he was excellent, peaking with his Cy Young Award in 2015. Otherwise, his career has been unremarkable. He is probably one of the 500 greatest pitchers of all time; perhaps there is an argument to put him in the top 300. Farther than that, we cannot go.

But for one calendar year – from June 21, 2015 to June 20, 2016 – Jake Arrieta was the greatest pitcher who ever lived.

G	W-L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
34	27-2	240	133	36	32	58	248	5	1.20	.159	.220	.221	.441

Let’s analyze this as if it were a single season, and compare it to the greatest pitching seasons of all time.

The W-L record of 27-2 would be the greatest of all time for a starting pitcher. The only starting pitchers in history (not counting Al Spalding in 1875) who won 90% of their decisions were both in 1995 – Greg Maddux (19-2) and Randy Johnson (18-2).

The ERA of 1.20 would be the second lowest in the live ball era, second only to Gibson’s 1.12 in 1968. Arrieta’s is more valuable because he pitched in a much higher run-scoring context.

No pitcher with >100 IP has ever allowed fewer than 5 hits per 9 innings over a full season. Arrieta’s was 4.99.

Only one starting pitcher in the live ball era has had a WHIP (W + H/IP) of less than 0.8 – Pedro Martinez in 2000 with a 0.737. Arrieta’s was 0.796.

Only 6 pitchers since World War II have pitched over 200 innings and allowed 5 or fewer HRs. Arrieta allowed 5.

Arrieta’s OPS allowed of .441 would be by far the lowest all-time for a pitcher with at least 85 innings pitched. There are only 4 starting pitcher seasons (>180 IP) with an OPS allowed of less than .500:

Tiant 1968 (.495)
Maddux 1995 (.482)
Martinez 2000 (.473)
Gibson 1968 (.469)

The lowest slugging % allowed in a season with at least 150 IP in the live ball era is Gibson in 1968 with .236. Arrieta’s was .221.

Maybe, just maybe, Pedro in 2000 was better, given that he pitched in a much higher run-scoring context. Otherwise, I submit to you that Arrieta’s “season” is the greatest pitching season of all time.

The Greatness of Mariano, Part 1

I am an unabashed Mariano Rivera fan. He’s probably my favorite player of all time who isn’t named Mattingly. And I have reflected a lot over the years about his surpassing greatness. Calling him the greatest reliever of all time doesn’t do it justice. With all due respect to Goose Gossage or Trevor Hoffman or Hoyt Wilhelm or whoever else might be second, he is so much better than any other reliever that somehow we need a different lens to view him through.

One way that I have thought about it is to try to conceive of how a reliever could be better than Mariano Rivera. Is that even possible? What would the characteristics of such a player have to be? You could take Mariano’s career stats and then create an imaginary player who improves on all of them by 10%, but somehow that doesn’t really help to answer the question of whether it’s realistic to think there could be such a player. I think a better way to think about it is to try to answer this question: has any reliever ever established a sustained level of performance, over multiple years, that is better than Mariano’s standard level of performance? If so, then at least there is a foundation for how a reliever could be better than Mo, if he could sustain that performance over a longer period of time.

To try to answer that question, I looked for the greatest sustained peak stretches of relief pitching in history, where a sustained peak is defined as of at least 3 consecutive years of pitching that is at least in the neighborhood of Mariano’s average level. I was able to find 19 such stretches:

Goose Gossage 1975, 1977-1985
Trevor Hoffman 1996-2001
Billy Wagner 1999, 2001-2006
Joe Nathan 2004-2009
Francisco Rodriguez 2004-2008
Keith Foulke 1999-2004
Jonathan Papelbon 2006-2009
Dennis Eckersley 1987-1992
Bruce Sutter 1976-1980
John Wetteland 1993-1998
Troy Percival 1995-1997
Craig Kimbrel 2012-2017
Kenley Jansen 2013-2017
Dan Quisenberry 1980-1985
Hoyt Wilhelm 1961-1965
Aroldis Chapman 2012-2016
Eric Gagne 2002-2004
Zach Britton 2014-2016
Joakim Soria 2007-2010

Then I compared those stretches to Mariano’s entire career, excepting 1995, when he was a starter, and 2012, when he was injured.

In a couple of cases, I allowed a skip year. Wagner 2000 and Mariano 2012 were injury years, so I left them out. Gossage 1976 was the year where Paul Richards tried to make him a starter, so I threw that out.

To measure the quality of each reliever, I used the following stats (all data from fangraphs):

Average WAR
Average WPA
Average RE24
Average WPA/LI
ERA-

I then stack ranked each statistic individually 1-20 and added the stack ranks together to create a cumulative score for each reliever. The best possible score would be 5; the worst would be 100.

There is nothing magical about this particular selection of statistics for measuring reliever quality. WPA seems to be a favored statistic for reliever, and I understand why, but I think it’s important to balance that with some non-contextual stats, for one simple reason: a reliever largely does not control his context. For that reason, it doesn’t seem fair to evaluate a reliever completely on context-dependent stats. So I created a blended statistic combining content-dependent and context-independent stats.

Anyway, here are the results:

Player	Year	# Seasons	WAR Avg	WPA Avg	RE24 Avg	WPA/LI Avg	ERA- Avg	WAR Rank	WPA Rank	RE24 Rank	WPA/LI Rank	ERA- Rank	Total Score
Eric Gagne	2002-2004	3	3.90	5.78	24.93	2.73	45	1	1	2	1	4	9
Joe Nathan	2004-2009	6	2.37	4.00	23.19	1.97	42	8	4	4	7	3	26
Jonathan Papelbon	2006-2009	4	2.45	3.98	22.96	1.86	38	7	5	5	10	2	29
Zack Britton	2014-2016	3	1.87	4.34	23.24	2.12	34	18	2	3	5	1	29
Keith Foulke	1999-2004	6	2.12	3.33	25.71	2.20	52	14	12	1	2	12	41
Mariano Rivera	1996-2011, 2013	17	2.25	3.29	20.56	1.91	45	9	13	8	8	4	42
Goose Gossage	1975, 1977-1985	10	2.73	3.66	20.30	1.78	54	3	9	9	12	15	48
Dennis Eckersley	1987-1992	6	2.55	3.24	20.26	2.14	53	6	15	10	3	14	48
Dan Quisenberry	1980-1985	6	1.92	3.88	21.75	2.13	61	16	6	7	4	19	52
Billy Wagner	1999, 2001-2006	7	2.16	3.54	19.27	1.88	47	13	11	13	9	8	54
Troy Percival	1995-1997	3	1.93	3.87	22.85	1.67	52	15	7	6	14	12	54
Bruce Sutter	1976-1980	5	3.22	3.25	19.45	1.84	60	2	14	12	11	17	56
Joakim Soria	2007-2010	4	1.75	4.07	18.88	1.52	45	20	3	14	16	4	57
Craig Kimbrel	2012-2017	6	2.23	3.04	16.03	1.52	45	10	16	16	17	4	63
Francisco Rodriguez	2004-2008	5	2.22	3.59	16.61	1.51	50	12	10	15	18	10	65
Trevor Hoffman	1996-2001	6	2.23	3.69	15.51	1.76	60	10	8	18	13	17	66
Aroldis Chapman	2012-2016	5	2.58	2.44	15.76	1.51	47	4	19	17	19	8	67
Kenley Jansen	2013-2017	5	2.56	2.98	14.75	1.57	54	5	17	20	15	15	72
Hoyt Wilhelm	1961-1965	5	1.86	2.32	20.18	2.04	61	19	20	11	6	19	75
John Wetteland	1993-1998	6	1.90	2.63	15.46	1.48	50	17	18	19	20	10	84

I would group these into 3 categories. Keep in mind, we are comparing these relievers’ peaks with Rivera’s average.

1) Definitely better than Mariano – Gagne, Nathan, Papelbon, Britton

2) Similar to Mariano’s level, and would at least have an argument – Foulke, Gossage, Eckersley, Quisenberry, Wagner, Percival, Sutter, Soria

3) Really good, but not at Mariano’s level – Kimbrel, K-Rod, Hoffman, Chapman, Jansen, Wilhelm, Wetteland

From this, I conclude that four relievers have succeeded at establishing a level that was, for a sustained period of time, better than Mariano’s average.

1) Gagne 2002-2004. I don’t think there can be any argument that Gagne’s 2002-2004 level of performance represents the greatest three-year stretch of relief pitching in the history of baseball.

2) Britton 2014-2016. Almost as good as Gagne. Only his WAR is dragging him down, which is probably an anomaly of some kind. WAR for relief pitchers is a bit sketchy anyway.

3) Papelbon 2006-2009. Incredible. He had other good years, but there was clearly a drop-off in performance after 2009 where he went from elite to just good.

4) Nathan 2004-2009. I have to admit that I found this surprising. I knew Nathan was good, but I didn’t know he was this good. It’s worth noting that he got hurt in 2010 and had TJ surgery. After the injury, he worked his way back to one more great season in 2012 at age 38 before finally dropping off the cliff.

So where does that leave us? The longest period where any reliever has been better than Mariano is Joe Nathan from 2004-2009. IF he hadn’t gotten hurt and had maintained the same level of performance through 2012, and IF he had been moved to the bullpen prior to age 28, then maybe, just maybe, you have a reliever who could challenge Mariano.

Of course I am leaving aside the whole subject of postseason performance, which is another massive element of Mariano’s greatness. Even 14 years of Joe Nathan’s best probably isn’t enough to make up for Mariano’s postseason heroics, but it would be a good debate.