46. 1981 North Carolina

Record: 29-8, 10-4 (2nd place)
ACC Tournament: Won
NCAA Tournament: Lost in national championship
Final AP Ranking: 6
All-ACC Players: Al Wood (1st), James Worthy (2nd)
All-Americans: Al Wood (2nd)

Trivia Question: who are the only coaches to lose more than two NCAA championship games?

Trivia Answer: Mike Krzyzewski, 4; Dean Smith, 3; Roy Williams, 3

Is this one of the 50 greatest ACC teams? They didn’t look like it in the regular season. They won the Great Alaska Shootout and had a huge early season win over Indiana but also lost to Wake Forest in the Big Four Tournament and lost consecutive non-conference games to Minnesota and Kansas just before ACC play started. They swept a very good Maryland team but lost twice to Virginia, dropped another game to Wake Forest, and lost to Duke on Gene Banks‘ Senior Day in overtime. It added up to a 22-7 record and a #12 ranking going into the ACC Tournament. That’s when magic started happening.

After an easy opening round win over NC State, the Tar Heels faced #11 Wake Forest for the fourth time in the semifinals. With 40 seconds left, the Tar Heels had the ball down by one. The ball was deflected into the backcourt and a scramble ensued in which Jimmy Black did everything but put a full nelson on Mike Helms as they battled for it. No foul was called, the Tar Heels recovered the loose ball, and they were able to get an open look for Mike Pepper who hit the game-winner. That set up another one-point win in the final over Maryland, who had blown out top seed Virginia in their semifinal. With the game tied at 54, Maryland turned it over on three straight possessions and the Tar Heels were able to take advantage and grab a lead that they would not relinquish, though the game was not decided the final seconds.

The Tar Heels were sent out West as the #2 seed. It turned out to be a favorable draw as #1 seed Oregon State lost right away. After the Tar Heels survived a tough Sweet 16 game against a Utah team featuring future NBA players Tom Chambers and Danny Vranes – in Salt Lake City no less – they had no trouble with Rolando Blackman and Kansas State in the regional final.

That set up a showdown with a Virginia team that had started 22-0, lost 3 of 5, then seemingly righted the ship with three easy wins to get to the Final Four. The Cavaliers had swept the regular season matchups, but they say it’s hard to beat a good team three times. Al Wood must have thought so. He exploded for 39 points – still the record for a national semifinal – and led the Tar Heels to 13-point win. A national title was not to be – Bob Knight, Isiah Thomas, and Indiana made sure of that – but it was a stirring run.

It wasn’t a deep team. They basically played six guys. Wood, James Worthy, and Sam Perkins were the stars; Jimmy Black, Mike Pepper, and Matt Doherty were the supporting cast. That’s something you notice about Dean Smith teams. There were certain invariants – they got the ball inside, they rebounded, they played unselfishly, they played defense without fouling – but there were other areas where he adapted to what he had. If he had ten good players, he played ten; if he had six good players, he played six. They got very little scoring from their backcourt. They had no true center. Didn’t matter. Dean figured it out.

47. 1999 Maryland

Record: 28-6, 13-3 (2nd place)
ACC Tournament: Lost in semifinals
NCAA Tournament: Lost in Sweet 16
Final AP Ranking: 5
All-ACC Players: Steve Francis (1st), Terence Morris (1st), Laron Profit (3rd)
All-Americans: Steve Francis (2nd)

One of the great teams that nobody remembers. They had a swarming, smothering defense that could overwhelm opponents, as evidenced by their 67-point win over Western Carolina, their 75-point win over North Texas, their 31-point win at Georgia Tech, and their 46-point win over NC State. (If you’re wondering, the ACC record is 84 points by UNC over Manhattan in 1986).

With the important caveat that steals and turnovers did not become official stats until the mid-1970s, this Maryland team is the all-time ACC leader in the relevant categories:

ACC Single-Season All-Time Leaders, Total Steals:

  1. Maryland 1999, 431
  2. Duke 2001, 411
  3. Duke 1991, 362
  4. North Carolina 2005, 362
  5. Duke 1986, 360

ACC Single-Season All-Time Leaders, Steals per Game:

  1. Maryland 1999, 12.7
  2. Clemson 2006, 11.0
  3. Maryland 1996, 10.97
  4. Clemson 1977, 10.9
  5. North Carolina 1977, 10.8

ACC Single-Season All-Time Leaders, Turnovers Forced per Game:

  1. Maryland 1999, 21.6
  2. Clemson 1977, 21.4
  3. Wake Forest 1978, 21.0
  4. Maryland 1994, 20.1
  5. Maryland 1996, 20.0

This was Steve Francis’ only year in the ACC after starring in junior college. He was surrounded by a skilled, athletic roster with a good balance of experience and youth and quickness and size. Senior Terrell Stokes was the other guard opposite Francis. He was a pass-and-play D point guard who allowed Francis to play off the ball at times. Senior Laron Profit was an athletic wing who could score and defend. The frontcourt consisted of senior center Obinna Ekezie and talented sophomore Terence Morris, who was the second-leading scorer and made first-team All-ACC. Their bench consisted of a trio of terrific freshmen in Juan Dixon, Dan Miller, and Lonny Baxter.

The Terps had the misfortune of playing in the same conference as one of the greatest teams of all time, 1999 Duke, and they got spanked both times by the Blue Devils. Other than that, their only regular season losses were at Kentucky and at Wake Forest. They swept North Carolina in the regular season and also notched neutral court wins over #10 UCLA and #5 Stanford.

But they caught a bad break when Ekezie ruptured his Achilles in early February. Baxter moved into the starting lineup and played well, but it definitely hurt their rebounding and depth. They responded well by winning their last six games before the ACC Tournament, where they lost to a North Carolina team that was able to take advantage of the Terps’ weakness inside. They were a candidate for a #1 seed, but wound up with a #2 in the South. After cruising through the first two rounds, their season came to a screeching halt in the Sweet 16. Facing a St. John’s team that featured Ron Artest, Bootsy Thornton, and Erick Barkley, the Terps played a rotten game, scoring a season-low 62 points, shooting 35%, and committing 21 turnovers and 27 fouls.

This was a tremendously disappointing loss for Gary Williams. He had shown the ability to consistently reach the NCAA Tournament – this was their sixth consecutive appearance – but they couldn’t seem to get past the Sweet 16. With the Francis addition, Williams thought this was the team to get over that hump. Francis swore he was coming back, and he probably meant it at the time, but it didn’t happen. He entered the draft and was the second overall pick. That 2000 team would have been something else if he had returned, but it wasn’t to be. On the bright side, Francis’ departure gave Dixon a chance to show what he could do and gain experience that would be valuable for the 2001 Final Four and 2002 national championship teams.

48. 1991 North Carolina

Record: 29-6, 10-4 (2nd place)
ACC Tournament: Won
NCAA Tournament: Lost in Final Four
Final AP Ranking: 4
All-ACC Players: Rick Fox (1st), Pete Chilcutt (3rd)
All-Americans: None

This is a fascinating team. The first thing that strikes you about the roster is the lack of a superstar. Rick Fox was the best player, and he was very good, but there’s no Worthy, no Jordan, no Jamison here. Then there’s just the sheer number of players. They returned five key guys from the year before (Fox, Pete Chilcutt, King Rice, Hubert Davis, George Lynch). They had a monster recruiting class – Eric Montross, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese, Clifford Rozier, Kevin Salvadori, and Pat Sullivan – many of whom were ready to play as freshmen. Throw in some decent sophomores (Henrik Rodl, Kenny Harris, Matt Wenstrom), and you had 14 guys who were legitimately competing for playing time.

And Dean kept trying stuff, all year long. Nobody started every game, and 13 different players started at least one game. (Challenge: find another college basketball team, anywhere, ever, where 13 different guys started a game during the season.) Scott Cherry, Kenny Harris, and Pat Sullivan each started a game. Nobody started every game. Ultimately there were 10 guys who averaged 9 minutes a game or more: Fox, Chilcutt, Rice, Davis, Lynch, Montross, Phelps, Reese, Rozier, and Rodl. Dean was still playing around with the lineup in the tournament. Montross started the first round game but was supplanted by Lynch in the remaining games. The one guy who didn’t work out was Rozier. The highly touted recruit fell out of the tournament rotation and transferred to Louisville after the season.

They had a lot of skilled players. Fox was versatile and skilled and an underrated defender, Davis was a great shooter, Lynch was the leading rebounder and interior defensive anchor, Chilcutt was sneaky good, Rodl was a deft passer, Phelps was a great perimeter defender. Dean figured out how to put them all in positions to be successful.

A few other observations about this team. One, this was the year that State and Carolina played on back-to-back nights in early February. Their first scheduled game in January had been postponed and preempted by President Bush’s address to the nation announcing the opening of the Gulf War. State won the first game 97-91 behind 37 from Rodney Monroe and 28 from Tom Gugliotta. Carolina won the rematch 92-70.

Another observation is that this was Carolina’s first Final Four since 1982. Since then, they’d had a run of great teams that ultimately didn’t get it done in the NCAAs. What changed? Mostly their luck. After several years where they kept running into other great teams in the bracket, in 1991 everything fell their way. The #2, #4, #5, and #7 seeds in Carolina’s region lost in the first round, and there were other upsets later. As a result, the Tar Heels didn’t have to beat higher than a #9 seed to make the Final Four.

The Final Four was full of compelling storylines. UNC and Kansas, two blueblood programs, the Jayhawks just three years removed from a national championship run under Larry Brown, Roy Williams facing Coach Smith and Carolina for the first time, Smith back in the Final Four after coming up short so many times. The other semifinal was the Duke-UNLV rematch with all that entailed. Then, in the unlikely event that Duke beat UNLV, there was the possibility of a Duke-Carolina final. In the end, Kansas and Duke flipped the script. The Tar Heels couldn’t overcome a dismal shooting performance, and their season was over.

I’m not sure how a team whose best players were Rick Fox and Pete Chilcutt managed to be one of the 50 best teams in ACC history, but I think about it this way. Duke won the national championship, and I don’t see that Duke is very far ahead of this team. Duke did sweep them in the regular season, but the Tar Heels crushed them in the ACC Tournament final and wound up ranked higher in the polls. Duke obviously gets lots of credit for winning it all and beating UNLV, but an ACC title, a #1 seed, a #4 national ranking, and a Final Four run are too much to leave out.

49. 1975 Maryland

Record: 24-5, 10-2 (1st place)
ACC Tournament: Lost in semifinal
NCAA Tournament: Lost in regional final
Final AP Ranking: 5
All-ACC Players: John Lucas (1st), Mo Howard (2nd), Owen Brown (2nd), Brad Davis (2nd)
All-Americans: John Lucas (1st)

The ACC of the mid- to late 1970s. Talk about a meat grinder. From 1974 through 1979, I defy you to find a bad team. There were teams that lost games, mind you; that’s going to happen, because even if everybody is good, somebody has to lose. But there is not a truly bad basketball team anywhere in that six-year span.

Nobody got caught in the gears of the meat grinder more than Lefty Driesell and Maryland. It was a unique confluence of circumstances that conspired to keep them always near the top of the mountain but just below the summit. Their very best years – 1973-1975 – happened to coincide with the years that the greatest player in ACC history was king of the court over in Raleigh. But I’ll save a more complete account of that for later. Let’s look at Maryland’s 1975 team.

Maryland was coming off a year in 1974 where their excellence was exceeded only by their frustration. Try as the might, they could not get over the hump with the Wolfpack, despite being obviously one of the five best teams in the country. To add insult to injury, the ACC received only one bid to the NCAA tournament. So when Thompson, Burleson and Co. once again dashed the Terrapins’ dreams in the ACC Tournament final – the “greatest game ever played” – their season was over. Just like that.

Coming into 1975, it may have seemed that Lefty’s Terps had shot their bolt. Their dynamic frontcourt duo of Len Elmore and Tom McMillen had moved on to the NBA. But they still had John Lucas, and they still had Lefty. It may have been one of his best coaching jobs. Lucas was an All-American. All the returning players – Owen Brown, Mo Howard, Brad Davis, Steve Sheppard, and Tom Roy – got better. And Brad Davis was one of the nation’s best freshmen. I am not certain of this, but I believe that 1975 Maryland and 1989 UNC are the only teams in ACC history for which six players averaged double figures. For the season, they converted on 54.7% of their field goal attempts, behind only 1986 North Carolina (55.9%) and 1980 Maryland (55.1%) in ACC history. It was a beautiful team to watch.

The only blemishes were an early loss to UCLA and consecutive January losses at Clemson and at North Carolina. Both of those losses were avenged in the rematches at Cole Field House. And, most importantly, Maryland finally vanquished DT and the Wolfpack, winning easily at home and surviving a one-point 98-97 game on the road. The Terps finished the season 10-2 in the league and with a two-game lead over North Carolina, Clemson, and NC State, who all finished 8-4.

With only seven teams in the league at the time, the Terps as the top seed got a bye to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament – where NC State was waiting. This time, the Wolfpack jumped out to the early lead. They pushed the lead to 17 in the second half before Thompson had to leave the game with severe cramping. With Superman out, the Terps launched a furious comeback. They used a 16-0 run to take the lead on two Howard free throws with nine seconds left. But Mo Rivers found freshman Kenny Carr for the game-winning bucket with just one second left.

The disappointment must have been unbearable. But Maryland, in a sense, got the last laugh. In part as a result of the injustice of Maryland’s 1974 team being left out, the NCAA had finally relaxed the rules to allow at-large teams into the Tournament. North Carolina received the ACC’s automatic bid after beating NC State in the ACC Tournament final. Maryland was selected as an at-large team. They survived tight games against Creighton and Notre Dame to reach the regional final where they faced #3 Louisville.

It would have been an amazing redemption story for Maryland to reach the Final Four, but Louisville did not cooperate. The Cardinals ran away with a 96-82 victory.

It wasn’t the last good team Lefty had at Maryland, but it was probably the last great one. He never got another chance to play for a Final Four berth. But despite the sense of missed opportunity, there’s nothing to criticize here. They were a great team and deserve to be recognized as such.

ACC 50 Greatest Teams – Complete List

This will be updated every time I post a new team.

Introduction to the series

ACC Greatest Teams – an Introduction

I’m about 18 months removed from the completion of my ACC 100 Greatest Players series. As I was working on that series, I became interested in the question: what are the greatest teams in ACC history?

This topic doesn’t need much of an introduction, but I do want to say a few things. First, I decided on 50 teams. There’s no magic to that. There have been about 700 teams in league history. 50 teams means we are looking at the top 7% or so. 50 means we have room for all the national championship teams, most of the Final Four teams, most of the 30+ win teams, and a good number of the ACC Tournament champions. The idea is to draw the line such that any team that one might conceive as truly great is included, but a team that was merely good but didn’t do anything genuinely memorable is not. If I erred, it was probably on the side of having too many teams rather than too few.

Secondly, I decided to look at each team-year individually. Sometimes you have great teams – let’s say NC State 1972-73 and 1973-74 – where they have a two- or even a three-year period of excellence that is built around a common core of players. One way to do it would be to consider those groups as one team. Is it possible to draw meaningful distinctions between NC State 1973 and 1974?

Well, as a matter of fact it is, and ultimately I was led to the conclusion that the only fair way to do it is to consider each team-year individually. No team is exactly the same from one year to the next. For example, you know the 1973 and 1974 NC State teams were built around David Thompson, Monte Towe, and Tom Burleson; but the fourth- and fifth-leading scorers on the 1973 team were seniors Rick Holdt and Joe Cafferky. In 1974, Holdt and Cafferky were graduated and replaced by newcomers Phil Spence and Mo Rivers. Not the same team.

You find similar situations with other teams. 1967-1969 North Carolina kind of looks like one team, but when you look at the stars, the ’67 team had Bob Lewis and Larry Miller, the ’68 team had Larry Miller and Charlie Scott, and in ’69 Miller was gone. Not the same team. 1981 Virginia had Jeff Lamp and Lee Raker; 1982 Virginia had Jim Miller and Tim Mullen; 1983 Virginia added Rick Carlisle and subtracted Jeff Jones. Even Duke from 1991 to 1992 – about as close to coming back with the exact same team as I could find – swapped out Greg Koubek for Cherokee Parks.

Unfortunately for me, that approach requires that I draw some very fine distinctions among those team-years. The 1967-1969 North Carolina teams had virtually identical results. How do you distinguish among those teams? I’ve done the best I could.

Finally, a word about how I approached comparing teams from different eras. In short, each team was considered in the context of its own era. In other words, I didn’t try to figure out whether 1957 North Carolina would beat 2015 Duke if they could meet in some basketball fantasy world. My answer is a) no, they wouldn’t and b) who cares? It’s completely irrelevant to how we evaluate 1957 North Carolina. Every team is situated in a particular time and context, and their objective is to beat the teams they are actually playing, not some hypothetical team from 60 years later.

With that, let’s get on to the list.

Final Bracket

I’m posting this bracket while the AAC and Big 10 Championship games are still in progress. I wish they would move those earlier in the day. It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Purdue. If Purdue loses, I would move Texas to the top line and drop Purdue to a 2. However, because of the timing of the game, the committee may have to make a final decision before the end of the game. This also impacts Penn State; if they beat Purdue, they deserve to move up to a 9. But again, the committee may not be able to consider that because of timing.

I think Houston is a #1 regardless of the outcome of the AAC game, but if Memphis wins, I would move them up a line and move Miami down.

I’ve spent a lot of time looking at the last few teams and trying to make sense of how the committee might view them. And my final answer is to go with Arizona State as my last team in, for one reason: they have five Quad 1 wins, and not one of them was at home. Their resume has a lot of weaknesses; 5-5 against Quad 2 and a Quad 4 loss is not good, and the computers don’t particularly like them. But when push comes to shove, win quality is more important than any other single factor for the committee, and the Sun Devils have it. I think that will make the difference.

Of course I’m always interested in NC State. Their situation seems to have deteriorated in the past couple of days, probably as the bracketologists reflect on their three losses to Clemson and, consciously or unconsciously, are bothered by the Wolfpack being ahead of the Tigers in the pecking order.

But I still think they’re going to make it. Their 7-4 Quad 2 record is very good, and they have no bad losses. Their wins over Duke, Dayton, Vanderbilt, and Furman have aged well as those teams played well down the stretch.

If you’re watching the Selection Show and you want to know when the moment of truth has arrived, here’s what you do. Get a piece of paper and write down these teams: Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Nevada, Clemson, Pitt. Every time one of them is announced – pay special attention to the 10 and 11 seeds – cross it off. When you’ve crossed off six teams, that’s it. The other three are not going to make it.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

  1. Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue
  2. Texas, UCLA, Arizona, Gonzaga
  3. Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Xavier
  4. Tennessee, Kansas State, Duke, San Diego State
  5. Texas A&M, Virginia, Indiana, St. Mary’s
  6. Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Memphis
  7. Miami, Florida Atlantic, Creighton, West Virginia
  8. Arkansas, Utah State, Michigan State, Missouri
  9. Northwestern, Boise State, Auburn, Maryland
  10. Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, USC
  11. Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State
  12. College of Charleston, VCU, Drake, Oral Roberts
  13. Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, Furman
  14. Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont, Grand Canyon
  15. Colgate, Princeton, Montana State, UNC Asheville
  16. Northern Kentucky, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Howard, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern

Last Four Byes: Iowa, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State

First Four Out: Nevada, Clemson, Pitt, Vanderbilt

Bracket Update 3/11

With one day left until Selection Sunday, most teams’ fate is sealed. I now have 40 locks, five teams that are Probably In, and five teams in competition for the last spot in the field.

I have to admit a couple of mea culpas. One is, I have “de-locked” Providence, which should never happen. Once a team is a lock, they should stay a lock. But Providence has really fallen apart down the stretch and I now think it’s possible, though unlikely, that they could miss the field.

The other is, I’ve added Vanderbilt to the list of bubble teams. When I looked at it last week, I thought they were too far out to possibly get an at-large bid. With their win over Kentucky, that now seems possible.

On to the lists.

Locks (40):

Big 10 (8) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (4) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (3) – San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

Probably In (5):

90% Chance: Rutgers

80% Chance: Mississippi State, NC State

75% Chance: Providence

70% Chance: Oklahoma State

Last Bid:

At this point, there are five teams who could conceivably hear their names called for the last bid: Nevada, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Arizona State, and Pitt. Of the five, only Vanderbilt is still playing. If they win two more games, they are the SEC champions and there is no more debate. Even if they win today against Texas A&M but lose in the final, I think they will get the bid. But let’s assume Vandy loses today. Then I’m going with Clemson, with Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, and Pitt following in that order.

This is a bit of a gut feel pick. My model says that Nevada has the best resume. But they finished the season really poorly and I think the committee will deduct something for that. I also think there has been a groundswell of support for Clemson from various sources in the media, although maybe that’s just my ACC bias, and that may have an impact on the committee. There may also be an element of unconscious sympathy towards the ACC, especially if they are going to leave Pitt out, as I think they will.

Keep in mind that bid stealing is still possible. Vanderbilt could win the SEC tournament, Ohio State is alive in the Big 10 Tournament, and a couple of teams are still alive in the AAC Tournament who could grab that last bid. If there are multiple bid thefts, I think Oklahoma State is the most likely of the Probables to be left out.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold, tickets punched underlined):

  1. Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
  2. UCLA, Texas, Gonzaga, Arizona
  3. Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Tennessee
  4. Xavier, Kansas State, San Diego State, Virginia
  5. Indiana, St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, Duke
  6. Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Miami
  7. Michigan State, Creighton, Northwestern, Florida Atlantic
  8. Arkansas, West Virginia, Memphis, Boise State
  9. Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Auburn
  10. Illinois, Iowa, Penn State, USC
  11. Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson
  12. College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
  13. Kent State, Iona, Yale, Furman
  14. Louisiana, Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont
  15. Colgate, UNC Asheville, Southern Utah, Montana State
  16. Northern Kentucky, Grambling, Norfolk State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson

Last Four Byes: Penn State, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson

First Four Out: Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, Pitt

Bubble Watch 3/9

Moving off the bubble list yesterday was NC State, who moved to a Lock with their win over Virginia Tech.  Although ironically, NC State beat the Hokies so badly that they knocked them out of the top 75 in the NET – which means the Wolfpack’s win in Blacksburg is no longer a Quad 1.  But it doesn’t matter.  They’re in.

Bubble Team Ranking:

In 6 – Utah State

In 5 – Oklahoma State

In 4 – Nevada

In 3 – Penn State

In 2 – Mississippi State

In 1 – Pitt

Out 1 – Rutgers

Out 2 – Arizona State

Out 3 – North Carolina

Out 4 – Wisconsin

Out 5 – Oregon

Out 6 – Michigan

Out 7 – Clemson

Commentary on today’s games:

Utah State – next game today vs. New Mexico (NET 50)

  • With a win – this is an interesting one, because right now New Mexico is 50 in the NET, which is the cutoff for a Quad 1 win on a neutral court.  But beating them may knock them down in the NET, making it a Quad 2.  The vagaries of the NET.  I’m not quite ready to call the Aggies a Lock with a win here, but they’re headed in that direction.
  • With a loss – by the same logic, if New Mexico wins, they probably will move up in the NET and this becomes a Quad 1 loss for Utah State.  I think they still have a chance and it will depend on what the other teams do.

Oklahoma State – next game today vs. Texas (NET 9)

  • With a win – OSU becomes a lock.
  • With a loss – OSU finishes their regular season at 18-15.  Losing to Texas on a neutral court doesn’t really hurt you, but the Cowboys are on thin ice as it is.  They will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Nevada – next game today vs. San Jose State (NET 96)

  • With a win – this is a Quad 2, just barely.  It helps marginally, I guess, but it’s really more about avoiding the loss.
  • With a loss – Nevada is in trouble if they lose this game.  They too will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Penn State – next game today vs. Illinois (NET 33)

  • With a win – this is a solid Quad 1 opponent.  I can’t say it makes them a Lock, but they would go to the head of the bubble pack, and the other teams would have to do some extraordinary things to keep the Nittany Lions out.
  • With a loss – a Quad 1 loss doesn’t really hurt their resume, but they’re on thin ice as it is.  Probably no better than 50-50 they get in if they lose today.

Mississippi State – next game today vs. Florida (NET 59)

  • With a win – Quad 2 opponent.  Every little bit helps, but certainly doesn’t make them a Lock.
  • With a loss – I don’t like their chances.  It would depend on what other teams do.

Pitt – next game today vs. Duke (NET 25)

  • With a win – I’m not sure my model would agree, but my gut says Pitt is a Lock if they win.  Duke is really playing well right now.  A neutral court win over the Blue Devils is the final validation Pitt needs.
  • With a loss – I really don’t know.  I don’t think they’ll make it, but other Bracketologists have them higher for whatever reason.  They certainly look like a tournament team with the “eye test”, but I’m not sure the committee cares.

Rutgers – next game today vs. Michigan (NET 54)

  • With a win – it’s a Quad 2, but because Michigan is a fellow bubble team, this win has a little more cachet than, say, Nevada beating San Jose State.  But it certainly doesn’t make Rutgers a lock.
  • With a loss – I don’t think they’re going to make it.  I can’t rule it out until I see what everyone else does.

Arizona State – next game today vs. USC (NET 48)

  • With a win – it’s a Quad 1 win for now, but similar to the Utah State comment, the act of beating USC may knock them down enough in the NET so that it’s not a Quad 1 anymore.  Beat them, but don’t beat them badly, I guess.  Regardless, it’s a really good win and would move Arizona State toward the head of this pack of teams right around the cut line.
  • With a loss – similar to Rutgers, I don’t think they’ll make it, but with their four Quad 1 wins, it can’t be ruled out.

North Carolina – next game today vs. Virginia (NET 30)

  • With a win – the Tar Heels move to a 60% chance to make it with a win today.
  • With a loss – they’re done.

Wisconsin (regular season over)

  • The Badgers have no games left to improve their standing.  Could they possibly make it?  I can’t completely remove a team with six Quad 1 wins.  But I would rate their chances at 10% or less.

Oregon – next game today vs. Washington State (NET 69)

  • With a win – a win doesn’t mean much.  Oregon has to do a lot more than beat Washington State if they’re going to make it.
  • With a loss – they’re done.

Michigan – next game today vs. Rutgers (NET 43)

  • With a win – it’s a solid Quad 1 win and will move the Wolverines up considerably in the pecking order, but their situation would still be precarious.
  • With a loss – they’re done.

Clemson – next game today vs. NC State (NET 37)

  • With a win – would be a solid Quad 1 for the Tigers, their third win over NC State, and would help cancel out the Tigers’ bad losses.  But it seems unlikely that this win alone will be enough to get the Tigers in.
  • With a loss – they’re done.

Bubble Action 3/8

Quick update on the six bubble teams in action today.

NC State can move to a Lock on my board with a win over Virginia Tech.

North Carolina and Arizona State are fighting to stay alive. The Tar Heels are definitely done if they lose to BC. Arizona State might still have a faint pulse with a loss to Oregon State, but they would be a long shot.

Oklahoma State and Wisconsin are both in similar positions. They are both around the cut line. You can’t rule them out if they lose today, but you can’t say they’re in if they win either. A loss probably hurts more than a win helps. Both are playing conference rivals who are better than their record would indicate.

Then there’s Pitt. The Panthers play Georgia Tech this afternoon. I say they are out if they lose, but there is a lot of disagreement about Pitt among Bracketologists, and not everyone would agree. But it does seem that the community is coming around a bit to my point of view. Only 73 of the 89 brackets on bracketmatrix.com have them in. Jerry Palm of cbssports.com still has them as a 9 seed, which is a fantasy.