I’ve never done an ACC football post before, but today seems like a good day to do it. With three weeks to go, the ACC’s bowl prospects are starting to become at least a little bit clearer.
It’s not that easy to find concrete information on how bowl teams are selected. Most fans know that you have to win six games against FCS opponents in order to qualify. Except when you don’t; 5-7 teams can qualify if there aren’t enough six-win teams to fill the docket.
Some conferences have a clear pecking order among the bowls, but the ACC does not. There are Tier One bowls and Tier Two bowls, but within those groupings, it seems that specific selections are made in a smoke-filled room.
But one thing is very clear: the ACC champion goes to the Orange Bowl, unless that team makes the CFP, in which case the next highest-ranked team goes to the Orange Bowl. That has come into play in past years with Clemson making the CFP, but it almost certainly will not this year. It is difficult to imagine Clemson or UNC making the CFP this year. So I’m going to simplify things by saying that the ACC champion will be in the Orange Bowl.
Clemson has clinched the Atlantic division and a spot in the ACC championship game. UNC is very close; one more win would clinch the division, and even if UNC were to lose out, they could still make it with some help.
At this point, the ACC has eight bowl-eligible teams (Clemson, NC State, Syracuse, Louisville, FSU, Wake Forest, UNC, and Duke), with Pitt very likely to be a ninth. And there’s a good chance that will be it; I assess Miami’s chances of becoming bowl-eligible at 29%, Georgia Tech’s at 11%, and Virginia’s at 10%.
So most likely, the ACC will have nine bowl eligible teams. Then there’s Notre Dame. As a quasi-independent, Notre Dame’s relationship with the bowls is complicated, but because the Irish have three losses, it’s a little easier this year. Basically, they will take one of the ACC’s Tier One bowl slots. I guess you can’t completely rule out a 9-3 Notre Dame team getting into a New Year’s Six bowl, but that would require them winning at USC, and even then I’m not sure they’d make it.
So let’s summarize. The ACC will probably have nine bowl-eligible teams, plus Notre Dame. There are eight Tier One bowls, plus the Orange Bowl, and three Tier Two bowls. To complicate matters, the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Outback Bowl) is traditionally a Big Ten – SEC matchup, but if the Orange Bowl selects a Big Ten team instead of an SEC team to play against the ACC team, then the ACC gets that slot in the ReliaQuest Bowl, which becomes a ninth Tier One Bowl. Here is the rundown in list form:
ACC Champion goes to the Orange Bowl (if not selected for CFP)
Tier One Bowls:
- Cheez-It Bowl – Orlando
- Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Charlotte
- Fenway Bowl – Fenway Park
- Military Bowl – Annapolis, MD
- New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Yankee Stadium
- ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl (only if Big Ten is selected for Orange Bowl) – Tampa
- Holiday Bowl – San Diego
- Gator Bowl – Jacksonville
- Sun Bowl – El Paso, TX
Tier Two Bowls:
- Gasparilla Bowl – Tampa
- Birmingham Bowl – Birmingham
- First Responder Bowl – Dallas
Right now, it seems unlikely that the ACC will get a team into the ReliaQuest Bowl. That probably comes down to Penn State or Illinois being selected for the Orange Bowl over Alabama or Ole Miss. The only chance I see of that happening is if Alabama and Ole Miss both lose another game. Even then I’m not sure. ACC fans should be pulling for this scenario. Best chance would probably be Ole Miss beating Alabama then losing to Mississippi State.
Assuming for the moment that the ACC doesn’t get a spot in the CFP or the ReliaQuest, here’s how I see it playing out, team by team, for the teams that are still relevant.
Clemson
Games Remaining: vs. Louisville, vs. Miami, vs. South Carolina
Possible Records: 11-1 (41% chance), 10-2 (44%), 9-3 (14%), 8-4 (1%)
Bowl Possibilities: As mentioned earlier, it’s hard for me to see Clemson making the CFP, even if they win out. They would need a lot of help. And I give them only about a 25% chance of winning out, including the championship. If the Tigers do win the ACC title, they’ll head to the Orange Bowl. If they lose the title game, it could get interesting. The Cheez-It Bowl would be the obvious choice, but they played there last year. My guess is they would wind up going to the Gator Bowl.
Duke
Games Remaining: vs. Virginia Tech, at Pitt, vs. Wake Forest
Possible Records: 9-3 (8%), 8-4 (34%), 7-5 (43%), 6-6 (15%)
Bowl Possibilities: Duke seems like a good fit for the Pinstripe Bowl (although the Pinstripe may go for Syracuse). The Military and Fenway Bowls are also possibilities. The Blue Devils can still win the Coastal Division if they win out and UNC loses out; I’d give that about a 1% chance of happening.
Florida State
Games Remaining: at Syracuse, Louisiana, Florida
Possible Records: 9-3 (20%), 8-4 (44%), 7-5 (30%), 6-6 (6%)
Bowl Possibilities: Florida State is an attractive team. If they could win out, it’s possible the Gator Bowl would pick them over Notre Dame. Otherwise, they’re probably headed to the Sun Bowl, Holiday Bowl, or Military Bowl. They could be a candidate for Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte if NC State doesn’t go there for whatever reason.
Georgia Tech
Games Remaining: vs. Miami, at UNC, at Georgia
Possible Records: 7-5 (<1%), 6-6 (11%), 5-7 (47%), 4-8 (43%)
Bowl Possibilities: probably not gonna happen. Tier Two bowl if they sneak in.
Louisville
Games Remaining: at Clemson, vs. NC State, at Kentucky
Possible Records: 9-3 (10%), 8-4 (36%), 7-5 (41%), 6-6 (14%)
Bowl Possibilities: The Cardinals have a similar profile to Florida State and will likely be competing with the Seminoles for the same bowls (Sun, Holiday, Military). They have a tough schedule remaining, however, and will be hard-pressed to do better than 7-5. I’d give them a little higher probability than the Seminoles of dropping to the Military Bowl.
Miami
Games Remaining: at Georgia Tech, at Clemson, vs. Pitt
Possible Records: 7-5 (3%), 6-6 (26%), 5-7 (48%), 4-8 (23%)
Bowl Possibilities: I don’t think it’s going to happen because the ‘Canes are terrible. If they do manage to make it to 6-6, they’ll be relegated to one of the Tier 2 bowls, maybe the Gasparilla.
NC State
Games Remaining: vs. Boston College, at Louisville, at UNC
Possible Records: 10-2 (15%), 9-3 (45%), 8-4 (35%), 7-5 (5%)
Bowl Possibilities: If the Wolfpack could win out, they would probably force their way into either the Gator or Cheez-It Bowl, although they’ve been to the Gator Bowl quite a lot recently. Otherwise, they probably wind up in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte. I don’t see them going back to the Holiday Bowl after last year’s fiasco. The Sun Bowl is a possibility.
North Carolina
Games Remaining: at Wake Forest, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. NC State
Possible Records: 11-1 (18%), 10-2 (44%), 9-3 (32%), 8-4 (6%)
Bowl Possibilities: If UNC wins the ACC, they’ll go to the Orange Bowl. If they lose, they’ll probably go to the Cheez-It Bowl. Things would get interesting if UNC finishes 9-4; in that scenario, they could fall farther to a Sun or Holiday.
Notre Dame
Games Remaining: at Navy, vs. Boston College, at USC
Possible Records: 9-3 (43%), 8-4 (47%), 7-5 (9%), 6-6 (<1%)
Bowl Possibilities: 9-3 Notre Dame would be very attractive, and you wonder if they could even squeeze into a New Year’s six bowl, considering that would involve winning at USC in their last game. It stinks for the ACC, but even 8-4 Notre Dame would likely get a Cheez-It or Gator Bowl slot over an ACC team.
Pitt
Games Remaining: at Virginia, vs. Duke, at Miami
Possible Records: 8-4 (27%), 7-5 (44%), 6-6 (25%), 5-7 (4%)
Bowl Possibilities: Pitt has the easiest remaining schedule of any team listed here. But I’m not sure how much it matters for their bowl prospects. They seem likely to go to one of the northern bowls: Military, Fenway, or Pinstripe. Pitt could also fall to the second tier, especially if they don’t win out.
Syracuse
Games Remaining: vs. Florida State, at Wake Forest, at Boston College
Possible Records: 9-3 (14%), 8-4 (41%), 7-5 (36%), 6-6 (8%)
Bowl Possibilities: The Orange are reeling after losing three straight, and it doesn’t get any easier with FSU and Wake the next two weeks. They seem like a good bet for the Fenway or Pinstripe Bowls. They are one of the teams that could fall to the second tier.
Virginia
Games Remaining: vs. Pitt, vs. Coastal Carolina, at Virginia Tech
Possible Records: 6-6 (10%), 5-7 (35%), 4-8 (40%), 3-9 (15%)
Bowl Possibilities: The Cavaliers have a faint pulse. If they can win out, they’ll wind up in a Tier Two bowl.
Wake Forest
Games Remaining: vs. UNC, vs. Syracuse, at Duke
Possible Records: 9-3 (19%), 8-4 (42%), 7-5 (31%), 6-6 (8%)
Bowl Possibilities: Wake could go in a lot of directions. A good case can be made for winning or losing each of their last three games. A 9-3 or 8-4 Wake team probably winds up in the Holiday or Sun Bowl. A 7-5 or 6-6 Wake team, which would mean a losing record in the ACC, is more likely to fall to Military, Fenway, or even a Tier Two.