——————– SAFELY IN FOR NOW ————————
1) Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights got a huge win on Tuesday against Maryland, solidifying their position. Their ratings are quite good, and they now have four really good wins at home against Seton Hall, Penn State, Wisconsin and Maryland. Should be enough to overcome their 1-10 record away from home. A win at Purdue would end all doubt, but I think they would probably be OK with a loss.
2) St. Mary’s
The Gaels have decent ratings in the 30s, played a decent non-conference schedule including neutral court wins over Wisconsin and Arizona State, and are 10-4 away from home. Their blemishes are only 3 Quadrant I wins and 3 sub-Quadrant I losses, but in this field, I think they’re in. Their regular season is over. Just don’t lose in the first round of the WCC Tourney, and they should be OK.
3) Providence
The Friars have a bit of an odd resume. They have a total of 7 Quadrant 1 wins, including road wins against Villanova, Butler, and Marquette, and home wins against Creighton and Seton Hall. They’ve basically beaten all the best teams in the Big East. What’s wrong, you ask? 4 Quadrant 3/4 losses, including a rare Quadrant 4 loss to Long Beach State, who is one of the worst teams in the country. But there are just too many good wins. They just have to score maybe one more win to make sure their record doesn’t get close to .500.
4) USC
The Trojans have a solid if unspectacular resume, with 4 Quadrant 1 wins and only 2 sub-Quadrant 1 losses. A loss to UCLA on Saturday would not be advisable.
5) Oklahoma
The Sooners didn’t need that loss to Texas. Their resume is quite similar to USC’s. If they avoid upsets (read: TCU on Saturday), I’ll think they’ll get in.
————————— LAST 4 BYES ——————————-
6) Stanford
The Cardinal added a jewel to what had been an unremarkable resume with their win over Colorado. They now have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, a 2-3 Quadrant 2 record, and one bad loss at Cal. They played a weak non-conference schedule overall, but did get a neutral court win against Oklahoma. Win at Oregon State on Thursday, and they should be safely in.
7) Wichita State
The Shockers got a solid road win at SMU on Sunday. Their best wins are at UConn and at Oklahoma State, which aren’t all that impressive. However, they will get credit for playing OSU, West Virginia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and VCU in non-conference, and winning 4 out of those 5 games. That, plus a lack of any truly objectionable losses, keeps them safely in the field. Winning one of their last 2 should be enough.
8) Florida
The Gators don’t have any great wins, but they do have 4 Quadrant I wins overall, and no really bad losses. Their ratings are generally strong. They’re in right now.
9) Indiana
The Hoosiers have played 15 Quadrant 1 games, winning 6, including 2 shiny wins against Michigan State and Florida State. 6-9 doesn’t sound that great, but when it comes to Quadrant 1 games, wins help more than losses hurt. They also don’t have any bad losses. They didn’t do themselves any favors with the loss to Illinois, but I think they’re OK for now. They need to beat Minnesota on Wednesday.
—————————– LAST 4 IN ———————————-
10) Texas Tech
Texas Tech is 20th in the NET, 21st in BPI, and 23rd on KenPom. It goes downhill from there… they do have a really good neutral court win over Louisville, and a home win over West Virginia. They also don’t have any really bad losses. Their last 2 games are against Baylor and Kansas; a win in either would make them a lock. If they lose them both, they’re at 18-13 going into the Big 12 Tournament and likely in need of wins.
11) Texas
Shaka Smart’s Longhorns are coming on strong, and their wins at Oklahoma and at Texas Tech vault them into the field. They have 5 Quadrant 1 wins, including a win at Purdue, and no Quadrant 3 losses. They have 4 Quadrant 2 losses, which is more than you would like. They’ve had too many non-competitive games – losing by 38 to West Virginia, 22 to Providence, 29 to Iowa State – and you wonder how much that will affect them. They need to hold serve against Oklahoma State this weekend.
12) Utah State
The Aggies have an odd resume with only 4 Quadrant 1/2 wins. You would think a team like that would have no chance to get an at-large bid, but they have one really good thing going for them. They scheduled LSU and Florida outside the league on neutral courts – and won both games. So they have a really good “made the most of their opportunities” argument. Their regular season is over. Given the weakness of the teams they’re competing with, I think they’re probably in, but a good showing in the Mountain West Tourney would help. No team with 4 Quadrant 1/2 wins can feel safe until they see their name in the bracket.
13) UCLA
As I keep looking at UCLA, I’ve decided to put them in the field. The Bruins are plagued with really low rankings – 75 in the NET and 94 (!) in the BPI. That in and of itself isn’t enough to keep them out. They have 6 Quadrant 1 wins, including a sweep of Arizona and a win at Colorado. But when they’ve lost, they’ve lost big, which probably contributes to those low rankings. They have too many bad losses – UNC, Washington State, and home losses to Hofstra and Cal State Fullerton. But somehow I think they sneak in. Big game at USC this weekend.
CUT LINE ————– (FIRST FOUR OUT) ————–CUT LINE
14) NC State
The Wolfpack have a blowout home win over Duke, and 3 other Quadrant 1 wins. Their win at UNCG just dropped to a Quadrant 2. They have enough good wins to get in, but the problem is, they have 7 Quadrant 2/3 losses, including sweeps by Georgia Tech and UNC, and a loss at Boston College.
Wolfpack fans can perhaps be encouraged that their resume is quite similar to 2019 St. John’s, which was a controversial at-large selection. They can get a lot of mileage out of that Duke win, but all those bad losses seem to have neutralized it. I just don’t know. I think they’re right on the edge.
15) Cincinnati
The more I look at the Bearcats resume, the less I like it. The good news is the Bearcats are 6-0 in Quadrant 2 games, which is good. The bad news is… well, most everything else. Their best wins are at home against Houston and at Wichita State. They have 4 Quadrant 3 losses, which is damaging. Their only decent non-conference win is at home against Tennessee. Their last regular season game isn’t going to help them, but will hurt them if they lose. Their best chance is to get a good win the AAC Tourney, but it’s possible they could sneak in by not screwing up while the teams around them do.
16) Purdue
The Boilers really helped themselves with a huge win at Iowa. They’ve played 11 games against the upper tier Quadrant 1 teams – and gone 2-9, the wins being a home blowout of Michigan State and the Iowa win. And all 9 of the losses were away from home. In the rest of their games, they’ve done quite well, notching 3 other Quadrant 1 wins. They are very high in the ratings. All they are lacking is wins. You get the feeling if they could have replaced a couple of those tough games with easy games and their record were 18-12 instead of 16-14, they’d be in. They need to beat Rutgers on Saturday, and then we’ll talk.
17) Richmond
The Spiders got a decent win over Davidson on Tuesday, their 5th Quadrant 1/2 win. They have a shot.
———————— NEXT FOUR OUT ——————————-
18) Rhode Island
Rhody had a really damaging home loss to St. Louis on Sunday. Their ratings are OK, but they have only 1 Quadrant 1 win, and that was at VCU. Quadrant 2/3/4 look fine, but overall, it isn’t enough.
19) Arkansas
Now we’re getting into the seriously flawed teams. The Razorbacks are sitting at 6-10 in the SEC. They did win at Indiana and at Georgia Tech outside the conference. But there is just not a lot to like here. They don’t have any sub-Quadrant 2 losses, so that helps. The Georgia Tech win could become a Quadrant 1 if the Jackets jump up a couple of spots in the NET. They really need to beat LSU on Wednesday; otherwise they’ll go into the SEC Tourney needing wins.
20) Mississippi State
The Bulldogs have a good win at Florida, but only 1 other Quadrant 1 win. They have 2 bad losses to Quadrant 3 teams. 2 Quadrant 1 wins and 2 Quadrant 3 losses doesn’t add up to a good enough resume. The loss to South Carolina pretty much cooked their goose.
21) South Carolina
Not gonna happen.