Month: March 2024

ACC Standings Outlook 3/7

Had to make a couple of corrections in this version. This time I really do have the tiebreakers figured out. I think.

For the ACC Tournament, keep in mind that 10 seeds and below play on Tuesday; 5 seeds and below play on Wednesday; 1-4 seeds do not play until Thursday.

North Carolina

  • Current Record: 16-3
  • Remaining Games: at Duke
  • 1 Seed (64% chance) With: A win OR (Pitt win AND Clemson loss)
  • 2 Seed (36% chance) With: A loss AND EITHER Pitt loss OR Clemson win

Duke

  • Current Record: 15-4
  • Remaining Games: vs. UNC
  • 1 Seed (36% chance) With: A win AND EITHER Pitt loss OR Clemson win
  • 2 Seed (64% chance) With: 1) A loss OR 2) a Pitt win AND a Clemson loss

Virginia

  • Current Record: 12-7
  • Remaining Games: vs. Georgia Tech
  • 3 Seed (85.5% chance) With: A win OR a Pitt loss.
  • 4 Seed (14.5% chance) With: A loss AND a Pitt win

Clemson

  • Current Record: 11-8
  • Remaining Games: at Wake
  • 3 Seed (5.5% chance) With: A win AND a Virginia loss AND a Pitt win
  • 4 Seed (51.7% chance) With: 1) A win AND a Virginia win AND a Pitt win or 2) a Pitt loss
  • 5 Seed (42.8% chance) With: A loss AND a Pitt win

Pitt

  • Current Record: 11-8
  • Remaining Games: vs. NC State
  • 3 Seed (9% chance) With: A win AND a Virginia loss AND a Clemson loss
  • 4 Seed (34% chance) With: A win AND a Virginia win AND a Clemson loss
  • 5 Seed (26% chance) With: A win AND a Clemson win
  • 6 Seed (12% chance) With: A loss AND a Clemson win
  • 7 Seed (19% chance) With: A loss AND a Clemson loss

Syracuse

  • Current Record: 11-9
  • Remaining Games: none
  • 5 Seed (12% chance) With: a Pitt loss AND a Clemson win.
  • 6 Seed (45% chance) With: 1) a Pitt win AND a Clemson win OR 2) a Pitt loss AND a Clemson loss.
  • 7 Seed (43% chance) With: a Pitt win AND a Clemson loss.

Wake Forest

  • Current Record: 10-9
  • Remaining Games: vs. Clemson
  • 5 Seed (19% chance) With: A win AND a Pitt loss
  • 6 Seed (43% chance) With: A win AND a Pitt win
  • 7 Seed (2.7% chance) With: A loss AND a Virginia Tech loss AND a Florida State loss
  • 8 Seed (15.6% chance) With: A loss AND a Virginia Tech loss OR a Florida State loss BUT NOT BOTH
  • 9 Seed (19.8% chance) With: A loss AND a Virginia Tech win AND a Florida State win AND

Florida State

  • Current Record: 9-10
  • Remaining Games: vs. Miami
  • 7 Seed (25% chance) With: A win AND a Wake loss
  • 8 Seed (8% chance) With: A win AND a Wake win AND a Virginia Tech loss
  • 9 Seed (56% chance) With: 1) A loss AND an NC State loss OR 2) a win AND a Wake win AND Virginia Tech win.
  • 10 Seed (11% chance) With: A loss AND an NC State win.

NC State

  • Current Record: 9-10
  • Remaining Games: at Pitt
  • 8 Seed (2% chance) With: A win AND a Virginia Tech loss AND a Florida State loss
  • 9 Seed (13% chance) With: A win AND EITHER a Virginia Tech loss OR a Florida State loss BUT NOT BOTH
  • 10 Seed (85% chance) With: 1) A loss OR 2) a Virginia Tech win AND a Florida State win

Virginia Tech

  • Current Record: 9-10
  • Remaining Games: vs. Notre Dame
  • 7 Seed (10.6% chance) With: A win AND a Wake loss AND an FSU loss.
  • 8 Seed (60.5% chance) With: 1) A win AND a Wake win OR 2) A win AND a Wake loss AND an FSU win AND NC State win OR 3) a loss AND an NC State loss AND an FSU loss.
  • 9 Seed (24.8% chance) With: 1) A win AND a Wake loss AND an FSU win AND NC State loss OR 2) A loss AND EITHER an NC State loss OR an FSU loss BUT NOT BOTH
  • 10 Seed (4% chance) With: A loss AND an NC State win AND an FSU win

Boston College

  • Current Record: 7-12
  • Remaining Games: at Louisville
  • Highest Possible Seed: 11
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 13
  • 11 Seed (88% chance) With: 1) A win OR 2) a Notre Dame loss AND a Georgia Tech loss
  • 12 Seed (10% chance) With: A loss AND a loss by either Notre Dame OR Georgia Tech BUT NOT BOTH
  • 13 Seed (1% chance) With: A loss AND a Notre Dame win AND a Georgia Tech win

Notre Dame

  • Current Record: 7-12
  • Remaining Games: at Virginia Tech
  • Highest Possible Seed: 11
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 14
  • 11 Seed (6% chance) With: A win AND a Boston College loss
  • 12 Seed (55% chance) With: 1) A win AND a Boston College win OR 2) A loss AND a Georgia Tech loss AND a Miami loss
  • 13 Seed (33% chance) With: A loss AND a loss by either Georgia Tech or Miami BUT NOT BOTH
  • 14 Seed (6% chance) With: A loss AND a Georgia Tech win AND a Miami win

Georgia Tech

  • Current Record: 7-12
  • Remaining Games: at Virginia
  • Highest Possible Seed: 11
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 14
  • 11 Seed (5% chance) With: A win AND a Boston College loss AND a Notre Dame loss
  • 12 Seed (13% chance) With: 1) A win AND a loss by either Boston College or Notre Dame BUT NOT BOTH
  • 13 Seed (60% chance) With: 1) A win AND a Notre Dame win AND a Boston College win OR 2) A loss AND EITHER a Notre Dame win OR a Miami loss
  • 14 Seed (22% chance) With: A loss AND a Notre Dame loss AND a Miami win

Miami

  • Current Record: 6-13
  • Remaining Games: at FSU
  • Highest Possible Seed: 12
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 14
  • 12 Seed (22% chance) With: A win AND a Notre Dame loss AND a Georgia Tech loss
  • 13 Seed (6% chance) With: A win AND a Notre Dame loss AND a Georgia Tech win
  • 14 Seed (72% chance) With: A loss OR a Notre Dame win

Louisville

  • Current Record: 3-16
  • Remaining Games: vs. BC
  • The Cardinals are locked into the 15 seed.

ACC Standings Outlook 3/5

North Carolina

  • Current Record: 15-3
  • Remaining Games: vs. Notre Dame, at Duke
  • Highest Possible ACC Tourney Seed: 1
  • Lowest Possible ACC Tourney Seed: 2
  • Bye chances: Clinched the double bye.

If the Tar Heels lose to Notre Dame, then the Duke-Carolina game decides the regular season title. If the Tar Heels beat Notre Dame and lose to Duke, that would create a tie. The tiebreaker would come down to walking down the standings and ultimately would depend on who finishes at the top of the Syracuse/Wake/Pitt/Clemson group.

Duke

  • Current Record: 15-4
  • Remaining Games: vs. UNC
  • Highest Possible Seed: 1
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 2
  • Bye chances: Clinched the double bye.

Virginia

  • Current Record: 12-7
  • Remaining Games: vs. Georgia Tech
  • Highest Possible Seed: 3
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 5
  • Bye chances: Have not clinched a double bye. If they finish in a 3-way tie with Syracuse and Pitt, the Cavaliers will be the 5 seed.

Syracuse

  • Current Record: 11-8
  • Remaining Games: at Clemson
  • Highest Possible Seed: 3. If Syracuse, Virginia, and Pitt all finish 12-8, the Orange get the 3 seed.
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 8 (I think – the tiebreakers are complicated)
  • Bye chances: The Orange have clinched a bye and have a shot at the double bye if they can beat Clemson.

Wake Forest

  • Current Record: 10-8
  • Remaining Games: vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Clemson
  • Highest Possible Seed: 3. I think Wake wins a 2-way tie with Virginia. There may be other tie scenarios where they finish third.
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 9
  • Bye chances: I believe Wake clinched a bye when NC State lost to Duke. Now the worst the Deacs could do is a 3-way tie for 8th place with NC State and Virginia Tech, and I think they would get the 9.

Clemson

  • Current Record: 10-8
  • Remaining Games: vs. Syracuse, at Wake
  • Highest Possible Seed: 3. Clemson gets the 3 seed if they, Virginia, and Pitt all finish 12-8.
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 9. A 2-way tie with Virginia Tech at 10-10. Possibly other tiebreaker scenarios.
  • Bye chances: I believe Clemson has clinched a bye. At least I am not able to find a tiebreaker scenario where they get the 10 seed.

Pitt

  • Current Record: 10-8
  • Remaining Games: vs. FSU, vs. NC State
  • Highest Possible Seed: 3. Pitt wins a 2-way tie with Virginia at 12-8.
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 10
  • Bye chances: I think they could still get the 10 and be playing on Tuesday. For example, if Pitt, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and NC State all finish tied for 7th at 10-10, then I think Pitt is at the bottom of that group on the tiebreakers.

Florida State

  • Current Record: 9-9
  • Remaining Games: at Pitt, vs. Miami
  • Highest Possible Seed: 5. It is possible for them to finish tied for 4th, but I don’t think they can win the tiebreaker. They could get the 5 in a 2-way tie with Clemson, or maybe a 2-way tie with Wake.
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 10
  • Bye chances: Cannot get a double bye if I am reading the tiebreakers correctly. And could be playing on Tuesday if they lose their last two games.

NC State

  • Current Record: 9-10
  • Remaining Games: at Pitt
  • Highest Possible Seed: 7. A two-way tie with Clemson at 10-10 is one way this can happen. There may be others.
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 11. Tiebreaker scenarios that involve Virginia Tech and Florida State generally turn out badly for the Wolfpack.
  • Bye chances: They need a) a win and a Virginia Tech loss or b) two VT losses to avoid playing on Tuesday.

Virginia Tech

  • Current Record: 8-10
  • Remaining Games: at Louisville, vs. Notre Dame
  • Highest Possible Seed: 7. They can finish tied for 6th but don’t have the tiebreakers.
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 12, I think. Tiebreakers are complicated.
  • Bye chances: If they win two, they have a good chance to escape playing on Tuesday. If they win one, they need a lot of help.

Notre Dame

  • Current Record: 7-11
  • Remaining Games: at UNC, at Virginia Tech
  • Highest Possible Seed: 9
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 14
  • Bye chances: To avoid playing on Tuesday, they need to win their last 2 games, they need Virginia Tech to beat Louisville, and they need FSU or NC State to finish 9-11. They need Virginia Tech in their tiebreaker because they swept the Hokies (or will have, in this scenario).

Boston College

  • Current Record: 6-12
  • Remaining Games: at Miami, at Louisville
  • Highest Possible Seed: 10. BC wins a 3-way tie at 8-12 with Notre Dame and Virginia Tech.
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 14
  • Bye chances: Playing on Tuesday.

Miami

  • Current Record: 6-12
  • Remaining Games: vs. BC, at FSU
  • Highest Possible Seed: 10. Miami wins a 3-way tie at 8-12 with Notre Dame and Virginia Tech.
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 14
  • Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Georgia Tech

  • Current Record: 6-12
  • Remaining Games: at Wake, at Virginia
  • Highest Possible Seed: 11. Tiebreakers are generally unfavorable for the Jackets.
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 14
  • Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Louisville

  • Current Record: 3-15
  • Remaining Games: vs. Virginia Tech, vs. BC
  • Highest Possible Seed: 15
  • Lowest Possible Seed: 15
  • Bye chances: Will play on Tuesday.

Bracketology 3/4 Update

Headlines

  • Tennessee grabs a #1 seed with a win at Alabama
  • Gonzaga moves into lock status with a win at St. Mary’s
  • Providence drops out of the field after losing at home to Villanova
  • Drake moves into the field – for now

Top Seeds

Tennessee leapfrogs Arizona, for now, with their win at Alabama. The last #1 seed is still between Tennessee, Arizona, and North Carolina and will come down to the conference tournaments.

Bubble Watch

Let me start with this. Gonzaga is in. They are a lock and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

Colorado State is moving towards lock territory. I think they would get in even if they lose their last game – but I wouldn’t advise it.

After Colorado State, I rank them:

  1. Villanova – big win at Providence
  2. St. John’s – idle
  3. Virginia – looked terrible against Duke, hanging by a thread
  4. Utah – blowout win over Cal
  5. New Mexico – lost at Boise, not a bad loss per se, but any loss at this point is damaging
  6. Drake – good win vs. Bradley
  7. Seton Hall – blown out at UConn
  8. CUT LINE IS HERE
  9. Providence – damaging home loss to Villanova
  10. Colorado – beat Stanford, who isn’t any good
  11. Wake Forest – yet another road loss at VT
  12. Pitt – blowout road win over BC
  13. Iowa – making a late push after a quality win at Northwestern

ACC Watch

  • Wake Forest is in big trouble. Their loss to Virginia Tech brings their record away from home to 3-11 on the season, and one of the three wins was against Towson. Beating Georgia Tech and Clemson is a must, and I’m not sure even that will be enough.
  • Virginia looked terrible, again, against Duke. I still think they will get in if they beat Georgia Tech in their last game, but a quality win in the tournament would help.
  • Pitt is alive, but I still think they need to win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
  • Nobody else has a shot.

Elevator Report

TeamPrior SeedNew SeedRecent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Arizona12W 103-83 vs. Oregon (NET 65, Quad 2)
Tennessee21W 81-74 at Alabama (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Kansas23L 82-74 at Baylor (NET 13, Quad 1-A)
Iowa St.32W 60-52 at UCF (NET 66, Quad 1-B)
Alabama34L 81-74 vs. Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Creighton43W 89-75 vs. Marquette (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky45W 111-102 vs. Arkansas (NET 120, Quad 3)
BYU54W 87-75 vs. TCU (NET 38, Quad 2)
St. Mary’s67L 70-57 vs. Gonzaga (NET 17, Quad 1-B)
South Carolina76W 82-76 vs. Florida (NET 33, Quad 2)
Northwestern79L 87-80 vs. Iowa (NET 57, Quad 2)
Nevada78W 74-66 vs. Fresno State (NET 213, Quad 4)
Nebraska78W 67-56 vs. Rutgers (NET 91, Quad 3)
Mississippi St.89L 78-63 at Auburn (NET 6, Quad 1-A)
Texas87W 81-65 vs. Oklahoma State (NET 115, Quad 3)
Texas Tech87W 81-70 at West Virginia (NET 144, Quad 3)
Boise State98W 89-79 vs. New Mexico (NET 28, Quad 1-B)
TCU910L 87-75 at BYU (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Gonzaga107W 70-57 at St. Mary’s (NET 16, Quad 1-A)
Virginia1011L 73-48 at Duke (NET 9, Quad 1-A)
Villanova1110W 71-60 at Providence (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Providence11OutL 71-60 vs. Villanova (NET 26, Quad 1-B)
DrakeOut11W 74-66 vs. Bradley (NET 60, Quad 2)
  1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
  2. Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette
  3. Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke
  4. Alabama, Illinois, Auburn, BYU
  5. Kentucky, Clemson, San Diego State, Wisconsin
  6. Dayton, South Carolina, Washington State, Florida
  7. Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Texas, St. Mary’s
  8. Nevada, Boise State, Nebraska, Utah State
  9. Northwestern, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
  10. TCU, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Villanova
  11. St. John’s, Virginia, Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall
  12. Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
  13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
  14. Louisiana Tech, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
  15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
  16. Lipscomb, Quinnipiac, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado State, Villanova, St. John’s, Virginia

Last Four In: Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall

First Four Out: Providence, Colorado, Wake Forest, Pitt

Next Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech

And Then The Next Four After That: Ohio State, Richmond, Ole Miss, Syracuse

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Kansas State, Oregon, Appalachian State

Bracketology 3/1 Update

Gainers

  • Baylor, Kentucky, BYU, Northwestern, Nevada, Texas, and St. John’s with Quad 1-A wins

Losers

  • Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Wake Forest with Quad 2 losses

Top Seeds

Purdue, UConn, and Houston are easy. The battle for the fourth #1 seed is between Arizona, Tennessee, and North Carolina, and it probably won’t be decided until the conference tournaments.

Bubble Watch

Here is how I see it right now. 12 teams competing for 9 bids. I would group them as follows:

90% Confident: Gonzaga, Virginia, Colorado State

I am 90+% confident these teams are in right now. They could still lose their way out, though. Gonzaga is probably going to get two more chances to play St. Mary’s. Winning either of those makes them a lock.

60% Confident: New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova

I have no idea how to order these five, but the main thing I want to say is, I think they are all ahead of the next group. If the tournament started today, I believe all five of these teams would be in. But it also wouldn’t be the shock of my life if one of them were left out in favor of someone from the next group. The teams in this group still have opportunities to either move up to lock status or to move down into the next group.

Problems: Utah, Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado

If there are no bid-stealers, there is room for one team from this group. Utah has some good wins, but they are 2-6 in their last eight games. Drake is, well, Drake. I don’t understand why Lunardi and others are not including them in the at-large conversation; they have three Quad 1 wins, including a good neutral court win against Nevada. But their overall schedule strength is weak and it’s hard to see them making it if they can’t win the MVC Tournament. Wake Forest and Colorado are similar, each has great metrics but only one Quad 1 win. Wake is 1-4 against Quad 1, 5-6 against Quad 2, and 3-10 away from home. That’s a tournament team? Colorado’s best win is… at Washington? Not good enough.

ACC Watch

  • Wake Forest is in trouble again with their loss to Notre Dame. They MUST win at least one of their remaining Quad 1 games at Virginia Tech and home against Clemson. They have been terrible away from home this year, so the VT game is really big for them.
  • Virginia has at BC, at Duke, and Georgia Tech at home. I think as long as they win two of those three, they will be OK.
  • Pitt has a faint pulse for an at-large bid. Maybe, just maybe, if they win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
  • Nobody else has a shot.

Elevator Report

Team2/26 SeedNew SeedRecent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Auburn34L 92-84 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Baylor43W 62-54 at TCU (NET 38, Quad 1-A)
Wisconsin45L 74-70 at Indiana (NET 105, Quad 2)
Kentucky54W 91-89 at Mississippi State (NET 31, Quad 1-A)
Dayton56W 80-66 vs. Davidson (NET 106, Quad 3)
BYU65W 76-68 at Kansas (NET 17, Quad 1-A)
Texas Tech68L 81-69 vs. Texas (NET 34, Quad 2)
St. Mary’s76W 83-57 at Pepperdine (NET 244, Quad 4)
Mississippi State78L 91-89 vs. Kentucky (NET 19, Quad 1-A)
TCU79L 62-54 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Nebraska87L 78-69 at Ohio State (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Northwestern87W 68-61 at Maryland (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Oklahoma89L 58-45 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
Nevada97W 77-74 at Colorado State (NET 29, Quad 1-A)
Colorado State910L 77-74 vs. Nevada (NET 37, Quad 1-B)
Texas108W 81-69 at Texas Tech (NET 42, Quad 1-B)
Seton Hall1011L 85-64 at Creighton (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Virginia1110W 72-68 at Boston College (NET 92, Quad 2)
Wake Forest11OutL 70-65 at Notre Dame (NET 135, Quad 2)
Drake12OutW 107-105 at UIC (NET 179, Quad 3)
St. John’sOut11W 82-59 at Butler (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
VillanovaOut11W 75-47 vs. Georgetown (NET 207, Quad 4)
UC Irvine1314W 89-64 at Cal State Northridge (NET 221, Quad 3)
Louisiana Tech1413W 90-84 at Western Kentucky (NET 145, Quad 3)
UNC Wilmington14OutL 69-58 vs. Hofstra (NET 110, Quad 3)
College of CharlestonOut14W 96-73 vs. Campbell (NET 291, Quad 4)
Quinnipiac16OutL 88-78 at Rider (NET 242, Quad 4)
FairfieldOut16W 88-64 vs. Siena (NET 353, Quad 4)
  1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
  2. Tennessee, North Carolina, Marquette, Kansas
  3. Iowa State, Alabama, Duke, Baylor
  4. Creighton, Auburn, Kentucky, Illinois
  5. BYU, Clemson, Wisconsin, San Diego State
  6. Dayton, Florida, St. Mary’s, Washington State
  7. South Carolina, Northwestern, Nebraska, Nevada
  8. Mississippi State, Texas, Utah State, Texas Tech
  9. Michigan State, TCU, Oklahoma, Boise State
  10. Gonzaga, Florida Atlantic, Virginia, Colorado State
  11. New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah
  12. Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
  13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Louisiana Tech
  14. UC Irvine, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
  15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
  16. Lipscomb, Fairfield, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Virginia, Colorado State, New Mexico, Seton Hall

Last Four In: Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah

First Four Out: Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado, Pitt

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Iowa, Cincinnati, Ohio State

And Then The Next Four After That: Richmond, Oregon, Syracuse, Kansas State

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Xavier