Standings Overview
Last week was a busy week in the ACC:
- Florida State clinched a spot in the ACC championship game and took another step towards a spot in the College Football Playoff.
- Louisville put some distance between themselves and the pack, and they are now the big favorite to face FSU in the ACC championship.
- Notre Dame fell out of serious consideration for a New Year’s Six bowl.
- NC State, Duke, and Boston College became bowl-eligible.
- Clemson and Georgia Tech got big wins and are only one win away from bowl eligibility.
- Pitt and Virginia’s chances for bowl eligibility evaporated, confirming their slide into 2023 irrelevance.
Let’s start with the ACC championship. I haven’t seen this confirmed anywhere, but it appears to me that Louisville clinches a spot with a win over Virginia. It would still be possible for them to finish in a tie at 6-2 with one of the current 2-loss teams, but the Cardinals have beaten all of those teams except North Carolina, and it appears to me that they would win a tie with the Tar Heels as well. So I think Louisville has all the tiebreakers.
If Louisville loses to Virginia, then the 2-loss teams (Georgia Tech, Duke, UNC, NC State, BC, Virginia Tech) would still be in the hunt with a win.
We know for sure that teams with 4+ ACC losses are already eliminated from contention for the championship. That includes Clemson, Pitt, Virginia, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.
That leaves Miami as the only 3-loss team. I don’t think they are mathematically eliminated yet, but they will be with a loss or a Louisville win.
In terms of bowl eligibility, FSU, Louisville, UNC, Miami, Boston College, Duke, and NC State are there. Clemson and Georgia Tech need one more win. Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest need two more wins. Pitt and Virginia are eliminated.
Clemson and Georgia Tech play each other this weekend, so the winner will qualify. Georgia Tech still has Syracuse at home, so even if they lose to Clemson they still have a good chance. They had better win one of the next two because they close with Georgia. Virginia Tech is probably 50-50 to get there. Wake and Syracuse still have to play each other, so the winner of that game might make it and the loser probably won’t. I’m holding to my prediction that 10 teams will ultimately become eligible.
ACC Bowl Prospects
In last week’s post, I explained how the ACC’s bowl tie-ins work. I won’t repeat that here. The only update I have is that with their loss to Clemson, Notre Dame is now unlikely to make a New Year’s Six bowl. This means they will steal a slot from an ACC team, and that slot will be one of the Tier 1 bowls or the ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl. Right now I am betting they go to the ReliaQuest.
That ReliaQuest slot could also go to the Big Ten. In that case, Notre Dame will get one of the Tier 1 bowls (probably Holiday or Pop Tarts) and that would leave only two Tier 1 slots for ACC teams. I’m not sure what would make that scenario more likely, but I have a feeling that Penn State beating Michigan might, so maybe pull for Michigan this weekend.
Team By Team
Florida State (9-0, 7-0)
Games Remaining: Miami, North Alabama, at Florida
Possible Records: 12-0 (53% chance), 11-1 (41%), 10-2 (6%), 9-3 (effectively 0%)
Bowl Possibilities: They’ll be in the playoff if they go undefeated with an outside shot to make it with one loss.
Louisville (8-1, 5-1)
Games Remaining: Virginia, at Miami, Kentucky
Possible Records: 11-1 (34% chance), 10-2 (46%), 9-3 (18%), 8-4 (2%)
Bowl Possibilities: Probably going to the Orange Bowl. Where they will probably get their tails kicked. They could make the playoff if they win out.
Georgia Tech (5-4, 4-2)
Games Remaining: at Clemson, Syracuse, Georgia
Possible Records: 8-4 (1%), 7-5 (14%), 6-6 (51%), 5-7 (34%)
Bowl Possibilities: They need “only” one more win, but two of the games are really tough. Most likely scenario is a win against Syracuse and a Tier 2 bowl, probably Military or Pinstripe.
North Carolina (7-2, 3-2)
Games Remaining: Duke, at Clemson, at NC State
Possible Records: 10-2 (12%), 9-3 (40%), 8-4 (37%), 7-5 (11%)
Bowl Possibilities: I’m still thinking Gator or Pop Tarts if they can get to 9 wins with an outside shot at the ReliaQuest. 8 wins might be enough for Tier 1, but that would probably depend on other teams like Duke, NC State, and Clemson.
Duke (6-3, 3-2)
Games Remaining: at UNC, at Virginia, Pitt
Possible Records: 9-3 (16%), 8-4 (44%), 7-5 (33%), 6-6 (7%)
Bowl Possibilities: If they can get to 8 wins, I like them for the Holiday Bowl. If not, Sun Bowl perhaps?
NC State (6-3, 3-2)
Games Remaining: at Wake, at Virginia Tech, UNC
Possible Records: 9-3 (11%), 8-4 (37%), 7-5 (39%), 6-6 (13%)
Bowl Possibilities: With the win over Miami, I think there is an opening for them to get into the Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It) if they can get to 8 or 9 wins. Watch out for Clemson though – if they finish strong, one of the Tier 1 bowls will grab them and bump someone, possibly NC State, to Tier 2.
Boston College (6-3, 3-2)
Games Remaining: Virginia Tech, at Pitt, Miami
Possible Records: 9-3 (7%), 8-4 (31%), 7-5 (43%), 6-6 (19%)
Bowl Possibilities: Fenway Bowl would be the logical choice. Probably need to win out to get into the Tier 1 conversation.
Virginia Tech (4-5, 3-2)
Games Remaining: at BC, NC State, at Virginia
Possible Records: 7-5 (12%), 6-6 (36%), 5-7 (39%), 4-8 (13%)
Bowl Possibilities: A lot of work to do. If they do get to six wins, they could be a good candidate for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte – if they can’t get Clemson.
Miami (6-3, 2-3)
Games Remaining: at FSU, Louisville, at BC
Possible Records: 9-3 (4%), 8-4 (27%), 7-5 (48%), 6-6 (21%)
Bowl Possibilities: Need to get to 8 wins to be in the Tier 1 conversation (Pop Tarts, Holiday, or Gator). 6 or 7 wins could be Sun Bowl.
Clemson (5-4, 2-4)
Games Remaining: Georgia Tech, UNC, at South Carolina
Possible Records: 8-4 (34% chance), 7-5 (45%), 6-6 (19%), 5-7 (2%)
Bowl Possibilities: After Notre Dame, they will be the prize. If they get to 8 wins, Tier 1 is a lock, and I could see them going Tier 1 even with 7. If they don’t go to Tier 1, I predict they’ll go to Charlotte and play in Duke’s Mayo.
Pitt (2-7, 1-4)
Games Remaining: at Syracuse, BC, at Duke
Possible Records: 5-7 (13%), 4-8 (41%), 3-9 (36%), 2-10 (10%)
Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.
Virginia (2-7, 1-4)
Games Remaining: at Louisville, Duke, Virginia Tech
Possible Records: 5-7 (2%), 4-8 (21%), 3-9 (47%), 2-10 (30%)
Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.
Wake Forest (4-5, 1-5)
Games Remaining: NC State, at Notre Dame, at Syracuse
Possible Records: 7-5 (4%), 6-6 (31%), 5-7 (46%), 4-8 (19%)
Bowl Possibilities: They need to beat NC State on Saturday or they probably aren’t going anywhere. If they do qualify, Military or Pinstripe seem like the most likely possibilities.
Syracuse (4-5, 0-5)
Games Remaining: Pitt, at Georgia Tech, Wake
Possible Records: 7-5 (9%), 6-6 (34%), 5-7 (41%), 4-8 (16%)
Bowl Possibilities: They look dead, but the schedule keeps them in it. They would seem to be a fit for the Pinstripe if they can get to six.
Notre Dame (7-3)
Games Remaining: bye week, Wake, at Stanford
Possible Records: 9-3 (75%), 8-4 (23%), 7-5 (2%)
Bowl Possibilities: They’re almost a lock to go to a Tier 1 or ReliaQuest Bowl. If they finish 9-3, they’ll be the first pick of that group.