After an eventful Saturday, the tournament picture is becoming clearer. Certainly the shock of the day was Florida State’s incredible comeback win over Miami. Considering the circumstances – down by 25 at halftime, on the road, nothing but pride to play for, home team had a lot to play for, and playing a way better team – that’s got to be right up there with the most unlikely comebacks in college basketball history.
Meanwhile, NC State suffered an absolute beatdown at the hands of Clemson. With that loss, any hopes the Wolfpack had of getting a double bye evaporated. Here is where things stand overall:
Pitt (14-4; at ND, at Miami remaining)
Best possible seed: 1
Worst possible seed: 5
The Panthers are in the driver’s seat. With a win over Notre Dame on Wednesday, they can clinch a tie for first place and no worse than a 3 seed. But they have to beat Miami to get the 1 seed. The worst scenario for the Panthers is a 3-way tie for third at 14-6 with Clemson and Duke. In that case, the Panthers would get the 5.
Miami (14-5; vs. Pitt remaining)
Best possible seed: 1
Worst possible seed: 3
Miami is the only team who has clinched a bye, and the Hurricanes still control their own destiny. Beat Pitt and Miami is #1. Why? It comes down to tiebreakers, and the fact that Miami has a better record against Clemson and Duke than Pitt does. The worst scenario for the Hurricanes is third place at 14-6. They could be tied with the loser of Clemson-Virginia and possibly Duke, but it doesn’t matter as the Hurricanes would win that tiebreaker. They can’t drop any lower than 3.
Virginia (13-5; vs. Clemson, vs. Louisville remaining)
Best possible seed: 2
Worst possible seed: 5
The best Virginia can do is a first-place tie with the winner of Pitt-Miami, and they would lose that tiebreaker. The worst the Cavaliers could do is a 5th-place tie with either Duke or NC State at 13-7. Either way, UVa would win that tie and be the 5 seed.
Clemson (13-5; at Virginia, vs. ND remaining)
Best possible seed: 1
Worst possible seed: 5
Suddenly Clemson as the 1 seed isn’t all that farfetched if they can win their last two games. They have the tiebreaker over Pitt. What they need is for Pitt to stumble against Notre Dame and then to beat Miami. If Pitt beats Notre Dame but loses to Miami, there could be a 3-way tie for first, which Miami would win, and Clemson would be the 2 seed. The Tigers can do no worse than the 5 seed as they are guaranteed to finish ahead of NC State.
Duke (12-6; vs. NC State, at UNC remaining)
Best possible seed: 3
Worst possible seed: 8
Duke cannot get to first, but if they win their last two games, they could finish in a tie for second with some combination of Pitt or Miami (not both), Clemson, and Virginia. A 4-way tie is possible. They beat Pitt, split with Miami, and lost to both Clemson and Virginia. I cannot find a way for them to get the 2 seed. The problem is, there is no way for them to get into a 2-way tie for second with Miami or Pitt; either Clemson or Virginia is guaranteed to be there as well, and that messes up Duke’s tiebreakers. In a Pitt/Duke/Virginia tie for second, the tiebreakers are very complicated, but I think they favor Pitt. It is possible for the Blue Devils to fall to 8 if they lose their last two games and finish in a 3-way tie with UNC and Wake for 6th place. In that case, head-to-head would be even, and one scenario that would not favor the Blue Devils would be if Clemson got the 1 seed. Wake and Carolina beat Clemson and Duke did not, so Duke would wind up as the 8.
NC State (12-7; at Duke remaining)
Best possible seed: 5
Worst possible seed: 7
The Wolfpack can’t finish ahead of any of the top four teams. They didn’t beat Pitt, Virginia, or Clemson this year and that puts them on the wrong end of any tiebreakers. If they beat Duke, they are the 5. If they lose to Duke, they are the 6, unless UNC wins out AND Clemson wins out AND Pitt beats Miami. In that case the Wolfpack would lose the tiebreaker to UNC and drop to the 7.
UNC (10-8; at FSU, vs. Duke remaining)
Best possible seed: 6
Worst possible seed: 9
If they win out, the Tar Heels could finish tied for 6th with the loser of NC State-Duke. In that scenario, they would have split the regular season with either, so it would come down to who did better against the best team in the standings. They can’t be worse than 9th.
Wake (10-8; vs. BC, at Syracuse remaining)
Best possible seed: 6
Worst possible seed: 9
If Wake could win out and finish tied for 6th with Duke, they could get the 6 if Clemson gets the 1. Like Carolina, they can’t drop past 9.
Syracuse (9-9; vs. GT, vs. Wake remaining)
Best possible seed: 7
Worst possible seed: 10
Syracuse is the 7 if they win their last two and UNC loses their last two. If they lose their last two and BC wins their last two, they’re the 10.
Boston College (8-10; at Wake, vs. GT remaining)
Best possible seed: 9
Worst possible seed: 11
The Eagles can’t finish ahead of UNC or Wake, but they can jump Syracuse if they win their last two and Syracuse loses their last two. They lose all tiebreaker scenarios with UNC, Wake, and Syracuse. If BC loses out, they could finish in a tie for 11th with either FSU or Virginia Tech, both of whom they own the tiebreaker advantage over.
Florida State (7-11; vs. UNC, at Va Tech remaining)
Best possible seed: 10
Worst possible seed: 12
The only team they can jump is BC, and they don’t have the tiebreaker, so they have to pass them outright. They can’t do worse than 12th.
Virginia Tech (6-12; at Louisville, vs. FSU remaining)
Best possible seed: 11
Worst possible seed: 13
The only team they can jump is FSU. They drop to 13 if they lose out and Georgia Tech wins out.
Georgia Tech (4-14; at Syracuse, at BC remaining)
Best possible seed: 12
Worst possible seed: 15
The Jackets will be the 12 if they win out and Virginia Tech loses out. They split with both Notre Dame and Louisville. I think there are some tiebreaker scenarios they would lose.
Notre Dame (2-16; vs. Pitt, at Clemson remaining)
Best possible seed: 13
Worst possible seed: 15
Still could get the 13 if they win out and Georgia Tech loses out. They have the tiebreaker over Louisville.
Louisville (2-16; vs. Va Tech, at Virginia remaining)
Best possible seed: 13
Worst possible seed: 15
I think they can get the 13 if they win out, Georgia Tech loses out, and Virginia finishes in second place behind Miami.