With one day left until Selection Sunday, most teams’ fate is sealed. I now have 40 locks, five teams that are Probably In, and five teams in competition for the last spot in the field.
I have to admit a couple of mea culpas. One is, I have “de-locked” Providence, which should never happen. Once a team is a lock, they should stay a lock. But Providence has really fallen apart down the stretch and I now think it’s possible, though unlikely, that they could miss the field.
The other is, I’ve added Vanderbilt to the list of bubble teams. When I looked at it last week, I thought they were too far out to possibly get an at-large bid. With their win over Kentucky, that now seems possible.
On to the lists.
Locks (40):
Big 10 (8) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State
Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia
SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn
Big East (4) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton
ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke
Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC
Mountain West (3) – San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State
West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
American (2) – Houston, Memphis
Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic
Probably In (5):
90% Chance: Rutgers
80% Chance: Mississippi State, NC State
75% Chance: Providence
70% Chance: Oklahoma State
Last Bid:
At this point, there are five teams who could conceivably hear their names called for the last bid: Nevada, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Arizona State, and Pitt. Of the five, only Vanderbilt is still playing. If they win two more games, they are the SEC champions and there is no more debate. Even if they win today against Texas A&M but lose in the final, I think they will get the bid. But let’s assume Vandy loses today. Then I’m going with Clemson, with Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, and Pitt following in that order.
This is a bit of a gut feel pick. My model says that Nevada has the best resume. But they finished the season really poorly and I think the committee will deduct something for that. I also think there has been a groundswell of support for Clemson from various sources in the media, although maybe that’s just my ACC bias, and that may have an impact on the committee. There may also be an element of unconscious sympathy towards the ACC, especially if they are going to leave Pitt out, as I think they will.
Keep in mind that bid stealing is still possible. Vanderbilt could win the SEC tournament, Ohio State is alive in the Big 10 Tournament, and a couple of teams are still alive in the AAC Tournament who could grab that last bid. If there are multiple bid thefts, I think Oklahoma State is the most likely of the Probables to be left out.
Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold, tickets punched underlined):
- Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
- UCLA, Texas, Gonzaga, Arizona
- Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Tennessee
- Xavier, Kansas State, San Diego State, Virginia
- Indiana, St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, Duke
- Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Miami
- Michigan State, Creighton, Northwestern, Florida Atlantic
- Arkansas, West Virginia, Memphis, Boise State
- Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Auburn
- Illinois, Iowa, Penn State, USC
- Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson
- College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
- Kent State, Iona, Yale, Furman
- Louisiana, Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont
- Colgate, UNC Asheville, Southern Utah, Montana State
- Northern Kentucky, Grambling, Norfolk State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson
Last Four Byes: Penn State, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State
Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson
First Four Out: Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, Pitt