Bracketology 3/9

The regular season is done and we can take stock of where things stand.

1. Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2. Houston, UConn, Illinois, Michigan State
3. Nebraska, Iowa State, Purdue, Gonzaga
4. Vanderbilt, Alabama, Virginia, Kansas
5. Texas Tech, St. John’s, Arkansas, Tennessee
6. Wisconsin, Louisville, UNC, St. Mary’s
7. BYU, Georgia, Miami FL, UCLA
8. Utah State, Kentucky, Villanova, Texas A&M
9. Iowa State, Clemson, St. Louis, Ohio State
10. TCU, NC State, Santa Clara, Texas
11. Missouri, UCF, VCU, Indiana, SMU, South Florida
12. Miami OH, McNeese State, Yale, Northern Iowa
13. High Point, Liberty, Utah Valley, Hofstra
14. UC Irvine, North Dakota State, Wright State, Troy
15. Northern Colorado, East Tennessee State, Merrimack, UMBC
16. Queens, Tennessee State, LIU, Howard, Bethune Cookman, Lehigh

Last Four Byes: NC State, Santa Clara, Texas, Missouri

Last Four In: UCF, VCU, Indiana, SMU

First Four Out: New Mexico, Stanford, Auburn, San Diego State

Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Boise State

Bubble Situation

I’m going to put the bubble teams into three groups. Group 1 are teams that are very likely to make it, I would assess their chances as > 90%, but not 100%. Group 2 are teams that are truly on the bubble, and I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Group 3 are teams that are definitely on the outside looking in right now, but could conceivably win their way in through conference tournaments.

Group 1: Very Likely In, But Not 100%

1. Ohio State
2. TCU
3. NC State
4. Santa Clara
5. Texas
6. Missouri
7. UCF

Ohio State is 26th in the predictive metrics. That will get them in despite their 3-10 Quad 1 record. TCU has 3 Quad 1-A wins and no major blemishes. NC State certainly has problems with the “eye test”, but their resume is too strong to leave out. Santa Clara could really use a win over St. Mary’s tonight, but I think they will make it even if they lose. Their metrics are good and the committee respects the West Coast Conference. Texas has 6 Quad 1 wins overall and is 37th in the predictive metrics. That will be enough. Missouri has a respectable 5-7 Quad 1 record and no Quad 3/4 losses. UCF is 5-6 against Quad 1, which is a lot better than the teams chasing them. Their 55 ranking in the predictive metrics is cause for concern, but I think they’ve done enough.

Group 2: Could Go Either Way

As of right now, there are 3 bids available for these teams.

1. VCU
2. Indiana
3. SMU
4. New Mexico
5. Stanford

VCU has two Quad 1 wins, decent for a mid-major, and no bad losses. Their name recognition as a program can’t hurt. But they sit at 49 in the predictive rankings which is not great. Their best win is against South Florida on a neutral court, which doesn’t sound that great, but they were very competitive in losses against Utah State on a neutral court and at NC State. They also dominated Virginia Tech on a neutral court. I think they’re the best of this lot. Two wins in the A10 should be enough to secure a bid.

What Indiana has to offer are wins over UCLA on the road, Wisconsin, and Purdue, and a 35 ranking in the predictive metrics. It’s not great, but in this group, it might be enough. They would do well to beat the Northwestern/Penn State winner on Wednesday, and if they really want to feel confident, go ahead and beat Purdue on Thursday.

SMU closed out the regular season with maybe their four worst games of the year and find themselves squarely on the bubble. Their metrics are OK. They have home wins over UNC and Louisville, a win at Wake Forest, and a neutral court win over Texas A&M. They lack bad losses. They desperately need to beat Syracuse on Tuesday and Louisville on Wednesday. If they don’t, it’s going to be a coin flip at best.

New Mexico’s resume is very similar to VCU’s, and what’s fascinating is that the Lobos beat the Rams on the road earlier in the season. You can bet there will be an outcry over that if VCU makes it and New Mexico doesn’t. But I think VCU’s resume is just a hair stronger overall. The Lobos have a couple of Quad 3 losses that they would like to have back. They have a chance to boost their resume with a quarterfinal win over Boise State on Thursday. If they lose that game, they’re probably done. If they beat Boise but lose to San Diego State, it will be really close.

Stanford has 5 Quad 1 wins, which is usually enough, but they are dragged down by their 64 ranking in the predictive metrics and three Quad 3 losses. A lot will come down to how much emphasis the committee puts on the metrics. Going off wins and losses alone, the Cardinal have a good case. If they can beat NC State again on Wednesday, it will be hard to keep them out.

Group 3: Out for Now, Could Win Their Way Into an At-Large Bid

1. Auburn
2. San Diego State
3. Cincinnati
4. Oklahoma
5. Virginia Tech

Auburn’s main problem is their overall 16-15 record. There has never been an at-large team that was one game over .500, and only one that was two games over .500. There has also never been an at-large team with 16 losses. So for the Tigers to get in, the committee will have to break some precedents. But that could happen, as most 16 loss teams don’t sit in the top 40 in the predictive metrics like the Tigers do. I would think they would at least have to beat Tennessee and Vanderbilt and reach the semis to have a shot.

San Diego State is extremely similar to New Mexico. Same conference, nearly identical record, similar metrics, split their regular season matchups. And if they both win on Thursday, they will face each other in the Mountain West semis on Friday. That could very well be a “win and you’re in, lose and you’re out” game.

Cincinnati’s metrics are good, and they have wins over BYU, Iowa State, and Kansas on the road. But they’ve lost an awful lot of games, including an inexplicable home loss to Eastern Michigan. At a minimum, they have to beat UCF on Wednesday, and my guess is they’ll need at least one more.

Oklahoma has been flying under the bubble radar a bit, but if they could make a mini-run in the SEC Tournament – beating Texas A&M and Arkansas to make the semis, let’s say – I think they could sneak in.

Virginia Tech is a real longshot at this point, but there are plenty of opportunities to bolster their resume in the ACC Tourney. If they beat Wake on Tuesday, Clemson on Wednesday, Carolina on Thursday, and Duke on Friday? Sure, that would probably be enough. Anything short of that, probably not. Beating Carolina on Thursday would at least make them interesting.

Potential Bid-Stealers

Miami OH. Will they make it as an at-large team if they don’t win the MAC Tournament? Their situation is unprecedented and the committee will have their work cut out for them. Their metrics are terrible and they didn’t beat anybody good, literally nobody. There is obviously a lot to be said for going undefeated, but I personally am not confident they will get in.

South Florida has a better resume than Miami in my opinion, but I think they are a little short right now, and unfortunately the American Tourney is not going to give them opportunities to bolster their resume short of winning it. If they lose in the final, it will be close but I think they will fall short.