Another week of college basketball is in the books. This week the NCAA came out with their top 16 seeds, which is kind of a sanity check for us bracketologists. I was more or less on target with one exception; I had UConn as a 3 seed over Marquette. I can certainly see why the committee would pick Marquette; they are 13-3 in the Big East, while UConn is only 9-7. However, UConn has in incredibly impressive non-conference resume; they beat Alabama, Iowa State, and Oregon on neutral courts, and they won at Florida, and the closest of those four games was 15 points.
But I do think the committee has a recency bias, and you might say that’s appropriate, although in my opinion games in November ought to count the same as games in February.
Here’s an update on ACC teams.
Virginia – headed for a 3 at this point, and more likely to move down than up.
Pitt – I have them as an 11 after the loss to Virginia Tech. That is lower than most prognosticators. Despite their ACC record, their overall resume isn’t that good. They have 6 sub-Quad I losses – the most of any serious tournament contender. They better not stumble down the stretch.
Miami – A solid 5 and more likely to go up than down. Historically, 5s get upset much more than 4s in the tournament. Favorable schedule remaining.
Clemson – I see them as not even close right now. Lunardi’s had them close to the cut line, but I don’t see how. Their NET is 80, they have no Quad I-A wins, and three Quad 4 losses. I’m not aware of any team receiving an at-large bid with three Quad 4 losses. They must win at NC State or at Virginia to even be relevant, and in my opinion they have to win out to get in.
NC State – I have the Wolfpack as a 10 seed, maybe one spot lower than the consensus. They’re not quite a lock, but they would have to fall apart to miss the tournament.
Duke – I have them as an 8. Very close to the 8/9 cut line in my model. They finish with NC State at home and at UNC, so still could move up.
North Carolina – I have the Tar Heels as the first team out, and in a way I think that makes them sound closer than they really are. As the commentators never tire of pointing out, they are 0-9 against Quad I opponents, and they WILL NOT get in without a Quad I win. They have two more chances with home games against Virginia and Duke. If they lose those, forget about it. If they can win one of those, and their two road games against Notre Dame and FSU, then it might come down to the ACC Tournament. My sense is, they won’t get in without two Quad I wins.
Everybody else – not close. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest would have to jump 10-15 teams to get in. Each needs to win out, and then probably do some damage in the ACC Tournament.
And now for the bracket:
- Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
- Texas, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA
- Tennessee, UConn, Gonzaga, Virginia
- Marquette, Indiana, Iowa State, Xavier
- St. Mary’s, Kansas State, Miami, San Diego State
- Creighton, Arkansas, Maryland, Northwestern
- TCU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Iowa
- Providence, Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke
- Illinois, Boise State, Florida Atlantic, Memphis
- Nevada, Rutgers, NC State, Oklahoma State
- Missouri, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State
- College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
- Kent State, Liberty, Utah Valley, Southern Miss
- Yale, Iona, UC Irvine, Eastern Washington
- Youngstown St., Colgate, Vermont, UNC Asheville
- Samford, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Morehead State, Howard, Alcorn State, Merrimack
Last Four Byes: NC State, Oklahoma State, Missouri, West Virginia
Last Four In: Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State
First Four Out: UNC, Wisconsin, North Texas, Oregon
Next Four Out: Coll. of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), New Mexico, Penn State, Texas Tech