Headlines
- Nevada and Florida strengthen their positions with Quad 1-A wins
- Colorado moves into the field with a Quad 1 win at Oregon
- Wake Forest loses a game they couldn’t afford to lose
Top Seeds
Tennessee has it for now, but Arizona is close, and don’t count out North Carolina and even Iowa State. The conference tournaments will tell the tale.
Bubble Watch
Most of the teams listed as 9 or 10 seeds below are near-locks at this point. That includes Oklahoma, TCU, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Boise State, and Colorado State. I suppose if Colorado State lost to Air Force on Saturday and then lost in the first round of the conference tournament, they might be in trouble. So we will stick with the term “near-locks” to refer to this group. They are in unless something really comes apart in these last couple of games.
After that, we get into the real bubble teams. These are the teams that if the Selection Show were today, I would not be shocked if they did not get in. Here is how I currently rank them:
- Seton Hall – huge win over Villanova. Their metrics are bad, but I think the win quality is too much to ignore.
- Virginia – they helped themselves this week by not playing while others around them lost.
- Colorado – their metrics are great, but the committee needed another Quad 1 win to justify putting them in. The Buffaloes delivered at Oregon. Careful with their last game at Oregon State who just beat Utah.
- St. John’s – if they beat Georgetown on Saturday, they will have won their last five.
- Villanova – monster game against Creighton tomorrow. A win would make them a lock. A loss will drop them to 17-14 overall. Another loss in the Big East tourney would be 15, and that may be just too many losses. Since 2016, only two teams with 15 losses have received at-large bids: Alabama 2018 and Florida 2019. Both of those teams were 19-15.
- New Mexico – huge game at Utah State on Saturday. A chance to win their way in. A loss doesn’t mean they’re out, but the odds get longer.
- Drake – on to the Missouri Valley tournament. If they meet Indiana State in the final, will the loser get in? That is the question. They may benefit from the teams above them losing (Villanova, New Mexico).
- CUT LINE IS HERE
- Providence – playing UConn at home tomorrow. In if they win, probably not if they lose.
- Pitt – must win game vs. NC State. NC State at home isn’t that great of a win, but the thing is, Villanova, New Mexico, and Providence all have extremely difficult games. If those three lose and the Panthers win, does that move them into the field? I think maybe it will.
- Texas A&M – they just won’t die. Six Quad 1 wins is a lot. Then again, four Quad 3 losses is a lot too. If they win at Ole Miss on Saturday, they have a shot.
- Utah – withering like cut grass. Tomorrow night’s game at Oregon could be the final nail – or it could be their path to get back in the mix.
- Wake Forest – the Georgia Tech loss just about finished them off.
- Iowa – no chance to make it unless they beat Illinois on Sunday.
ACC Watch
- Wake Forest is dead in my opinion unless they win the ACC Tournament. I don’t think beating Clemson will be enough. I guess a win over Clemson and then a win over Carolina or Duke in the tournament might do it.
- Virginia I think is going to squeak in so long as they don’t stumble against Georgia Tech on Saturday. Lunardi has them as the last team in. I think they are a little better than that.
- Pitt has a shot. At a minimum, they have to beat NC State on Saturday, and then reach the semis of the ACC Tournament. I’m not saying they’re in if they do that. Probably need to reach the finals of the tournament, and then you may as well just win the darn thing.
Elevator Report
| Team | Prior Seed | New Seed | Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad) |
| Marquette | 2 | 3 | L 74-67 vs. UConn (NET 3, Quad 1-A) |
| Baylor | 3 | 2 | W 93-85 vs. Texas (NET 26, Quad 1-B) |
| BYU | 4 | 5 | L 68-63 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A) |
| Kentucky | 5 | 4 | W 93-77 vs. Vanderbilt (NET 214, Quad 4) |
| San Diego State | 5 | 6 | L 62-58 at UNLV (NET 75, Quad 1-B) |
| Florida | 6 | 5 | W 105-87 vs. Alabama (NET 7, Quad 1-A) |
| Washington State | 6 | 7 | L 74-68 vs. Washington (NET 66, Quad 2) |
| Texas | 7 | 8 | L 93-85 at Baylor (NET 13, Quad 1-A) |
| Boise State | 8 | 10 | L 76-66 vs. Nevada (NET 34, Quad 2) |
| Nevada | 8 | 6 | W 76-66 at Boise State (NET 28, Quad 1-A) |
| Northwestern | 9 | 10 | L 53-49 at Michigan State (NET 23, Quad 1-A) |
| Michigan State | 9 | 8 | W 53-49 vs. Northwestern (NET 52, Quad 2) |
| TCU | 10 | 9 | W 93-81 at West Virginia (NET 147, Quad 3) |
| FAU | 10 | 9 | W 80-76 at North Texas (NET 86, Quad 2) |
| Villanova | 10 | 11 | L 66-56 at Seton Hall (NET 63, Quad 1-B) |
| Seton Hall | 11 | 10 | W 66-56 vs. Villanova (NET 31, Quad 2) |
| Utah | 11 | Out | L 92-85 at Oregon State (NET 159, Quad 3) |
| Colorado | Out | 11 | W 79-75 at Oregon (NET 69, Quad 1-B) |
| Lipscomb | 16 | Out | Lost in Atlantic Sun tourney |
| Stetson | Out | 16 | Advanced to finals of Atlantic Sun tourney |
- Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
- Arizona, Iowa State, North Carolina, Baylor
- Kansas, Marquette, Creighton, Duke
- Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky, Illinois
- BYU, Clemson, Florida, Wisconsin
- Dayton, Nevada, San Diego State, South Carolina
- Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Washington State, St. Mary’s
- Nebraska, Utah State, Michigan State, Texas
- Oklahoma, TCU, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State
- Northwestern, Boise State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
- Virginia, Colorado, St. John’s, Villanova, New Mexico, Drake
- Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
- McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
- College of Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Akron, High Point
- Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
- Quinnipiac, South Dakota St., Stetson, Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern
Last Four Byes: Colorado State, Seton Hall, Virginia, Colorado
Last Four In: St. John’s, Villanova, New Mexico, Drake
First Four Out: Providence, Pitt, Texas A&M, Utah
Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Iowa, Richmond, Ohio State