Tag: ACC

Bubble Watch 3/3

As we head into the final weekend of the regular season, it’s time to survey the bubble.  Who’s in, who’s out, and who has work to do.

I think the most compelling story is how the committee will handle the ACC.  Will the ACC be graded on the curve, or will they be treated like the seventh-best conference in the country, which they are, according to the NET?  Pitt, North Carolina, Clemson, and arguably NC State are bubble teams.  And if you’re looking at blind resumes without regard to the conference or the name on the front of the jersey, which is what the committee claims to do, I would say that only NC State is in, and that not by much.  Pitt and UNC are right around the cut line, and Clemson is out.  But many of the Bracketology talking heads have NC State and Pitt comfortably in, and Clemson knocking at the door.  It seems they are anticipating that the committee will be influenced by the brand and the historical reputation of the ACC.  We’re getting into the realm of psychology, which is dangerous, but the committee are human, and you know that conversation will happen.  “Are we really going to leave out a team that went 14-6 in the ACC?” It’s a test to see how committed they are to their principles.

Now to the detail.  Let’s remind ourselves of how this works.  There are 68 teams in the tournament.  23 of those bids will come from the tournament champions of one-bid leagues.  That leaves 45 bids, 9 automatic bids and 36 at-large bids, for teams from the nine multi-bid leagues: the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, SEC, American, Mountain West, and West Coast.  I’m going to focus on those 45 spots.  I will put them into three categories: Locks, In for Now, and Bubble Teams.  Locks means just that – they are going to make the tournament no matter what happens the rest of the way.  In for Now are teams that would make the tournament if selections were being made today but are not totally secure due to the possibilities of bad losses, bid stealers, and idiosyncratic decisions by the committee.  Bubble Teams are close to the cut line and have a non-trivial chance to earn an at-large bid. Keep in mind that the number of Bubble Teams who actually receive bids depends on the number of bid stealers.  As a reminder, a bid steal happens when a team from one of the nine multi-bid leagues above who would not otherwise have made it as an at-large wins the conference tournament.  This means that a spot must be made for them, and the result is that the last at-large team in the field gets bumped out. Any team not listed has no chance to earn an at-large bid in my estimation.

Locks (35):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (6) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State

SEC (6) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (2) – UCLA, Arizona

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Probably the most controversial team here as a Lock is Memphis.  They have only two Quad 1 wins.  However, their 8-3 Quad 2 record is very good.  Since 2016, only two teams with 8+ Quad 2 wins have been left out of the field: Nevada 2017, who had zero Quad 1 wins, and Butler 2019, who had one.  Their last regular season game is against Houston, so it won’t hurt them much even if they lose.  I guess if they got blown out by Houston and lost to, say, SMU in the quarterfinals of the AAC tourney, they would be nervous.  But they would still make it, I think.

In for Now (7):

West Virginia – West Virginia is a tournament team.  I am tempted to make them a Lock.  They have five Quad 1 wins.  Since 2016, there have been 10 teams with 5+ Quad 1 wins who got left out of the field.  All but one of them had 5+ losses to Quads 2/3/4.  WVU has one.  None of them was ranked higher than 38 in the RPI/NET.  WVU is 24.  The only reason I don’t have them as a lock is their overall record.  They could finish 17-15, considering their last game is against Kansas State with the Big 12 tourney to follow.  Since 2016, only one team that was two games over .500 has made it as an at-large (Maryland 2021).  I think the Mountaineers would be the second, but I can’t be sure.  The committee seems to have a line they don’t like to cross.

Auburn – I think the Tigers will get in, but there is precedent for a team like them getting left out.  NC State 2019 was pretty similar – not many Quad 1 wins but good Quad 2 record, not many bad losses, solid NET.  NC State that year was punished for playing a weak non-conference schedule, and Auburn doesn’t have that problem.  Their last regular season game is at home against Tennessee.  That would be an opportunity for them to eliminate all doubt.  They will probably play Mississippi State, Arkansas, or Florida in the SEC Tourney.  If they lose to Tennessee and then lose that game, they’ll be sweating it.  One more win should do it.

USC – They would definitely get in if the tournament started today, but they can’t afford a slip-up.  Texas A&M last year had a very similar resume, and they got left out.  They play Arizona State at home on Saturday, and then they’ll play somebody like Washington State or Utah in the quarters of the Pac-12 Tournament.  Win both of those games, and they’re a lock.  Lose one, they’ll probably make it but it will be tight.  Lose both and they’re probably sunk.

Nevada – They have four Quad 1 wins and a NET of 32.  Nobody has ever been left out with that profile.  The only reason I don’t call them a lock is, they still have the opportunity for a couple of bad losses.  UNLV at home to close the regular season, then maybe San Jose State in the quarters of the Mountain West tournament.  Lose both of those games and they’re in trouble.

Mississippi State – the Bulldogs have four Quad 1 wins, two of which are outstanding – at Arkansas and on a neutral court against Marquette.  That win quality is probably enough to get them in, but they are only 3-2 against Quad 2, so overall they have a 7-9 record against Quads 1&2.  They have a couple of toss-up type games coming up: at Vanderbilt to close the regular season, and then someone from the middle of the SEC pack in the first round of the SEC tournament.  I think if they win one of those games, they’ll be OK.

Rutgers – Rutgers has been alternating bad losses (vs. Nebraska, at Minnesota) with good wins (at Wisconsin, at Penn State) lately.  Life in the Big 10.  They have five Quad 1 wins and a solid NET of 38, which certainly sounds like a tournament team.  Their Achilles’ heel is four Quad 3 losses.  It’s an unusual resume.  It’s hard to find a good comp for them from the past.  Their remaining schedule is similar to Mississippi State: they have a couple of toss-up games coming up, at home against Northwestern and then the first round of the Big 10 Tournament against somebody like Michigan or Michigan State.  But I think their position is a bit more precarious than Mississippi State.  They really need to win one of those games, and both to be completely safe.

NC State – The Wolfpack seem to be safely in according to most of the Bracketology talking heads, but I’m not sure why.  They have only two Quad 1 wins.  That is the ONLY thing separating their resume from North Carolina’s.  If the Tar Heels beat Duke on Saturday, then they are dead even.  Anyway, back to NC State.  Their first round ACC Tournament game will be against Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, or Syracuse.  They need to win it.  If they do, I think they’re OK. Getting to the semifinals would make them totally safe.

Bubble Teams (10):

There are three spots available for this group.  That number goes down with any bid stealers.  However, it could also go up if any of the In for Nows stumble badly.

Pitt – let’s start with the Panthers.  They are the case study for whether the committee will give the ACC a boost.  They have four Quad 1 wins, but none of those is a so-called Quad 1A win.  Their Quad 2 record is only 3-4, and the have two bad losses.  Their NET is mediocre.  The only reason I can come up with that the talking heads have them in is, they can’t believe the committee will leave out a team that is 14-5 in the ACC.  And maybe they’re right.  The winning record against Quad 1 is a major point in their favor.  They play at Miami this weekend.  A win there would clinch it.  If they lose that game, they really need to win the ACC quarterfinal, and they need that to be a Quad 1 win, which means Duke, NC State, or North Carolina.  Beating Clemson doesn’t help them as much.  Bottom line is, if they don’t get another Quad 1 win, I think they will be left out.

North Carolina – I think the Tar Heels are in a similar boat to Pitt.  They need another Quad 1 win.  It could be against Duke on Saturday, or it could be in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament.  I think their position is slightly weaker than Pitt’s; I’m not convinced that one Quad 1 win is enough, and it may depend on bid stealers and what the other bubble teams do.  They need two more Quad 1 wins to be safe.

Penn State – the Lions got a huge win on Wednesday at Northwestern, their fourth Quad 1.  That is solid, but like Pitt, the rest of their resume is underwhelming.  In fact, their resume is very much like Pitt’s.  They need to beat Maryland at home on Sunday and win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament.  That’s the minimum.  They may need to get to the semis of the tournament.

Oklahoma State – a slightly worse version of West Virginia.  Five Quad 1 wins, but an awful lot of losses, including their last five, and nothing like West Virginia’s impressive non-conference performance.  Being in the Big 12, they’ll have plenty of opportunities to impress the committee.  Between their last regular season game at Texas Tech and the Big 12 Tournament, they need two wins to be safe.  No team with seven Quad 1 wins has ever been left out.  If they were to beat Texas Tech and lose in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, that would be interesting; they would have six Quad 1 wins, which historically is close to a guarantee, but their overall record would be 17-15.  With the late season slide, I don’t think it would be good enough.

Wisconsin – the Badgers are difficult to get a read on.  They have six Quad 1 wins.  Only three teams with six Q1s have been left out since 2016.  However, for some reason the NET thinks they are terrible at number 77.  The lowest ranked NET team ever to get an at-large was Rutgers last year, and they were, guess what, 77.  It’s hard to know what to do with all of that.  One thing is for sure: they can’t lose to Minnesota on Sunday.  My sense is, if they beat Minnesota and score a Quad 1 win in the Big 10 Tournament, they’ll make it; otherwise, they probably won’t.

Arizona State – similar to Wisconsin.  Poor NET, poor record against Quad 2, relying on their Quad 1 record, which includes four wins overall including a neutral court win over Creighton and a really impressive win at Arizona.  Some bracketologists have them in right now.  I don’t.  Winning at USC on Saturday would help a lot, plus a quarterfinal win in the tournament.  Otherwise they need a run to the Pac-12 final.

Michigan – now we’re getting to the deep cuts.  Michigan is almost certainly not in right now.  What do they have to do to win their way in?  Winning at Indiana on Sunday would be a great start, and might just be enough depending on what else happens.  Most likely, though, they need two more Quad 1 wins.  Either Indiana and the tournament quarterfinal, or getting to the Big 10 Tournament final.

Oregon – the *really* deep cuts.  Oregon, just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final.  Even then, I doubt it, but say they beat Arizona State in the quarters and UCLA in the semis?  I guess that could be enough if things break their way.

Clemson – Clemson’s four bad losses really kill them.  Let’s say they beat Duke or NC State in the quarters and Virginia or Miami in the semis?  Similar to Oregon, that might be enough.  Anything short of that will not be unless the committee has a real soft spot for the ACC.

Texas Tech – why do I have them on here?  Because they play in the Big 12.  Practically every game is a Quad 1.  If they beat Oklahoma State to close the regular season, then beat, say, West Virginia, Kansas, and Texas to reach the Big 12 tournament final?  Yeah, they would make it.  I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance it will happen, but I can’t rule it out.

ACC Tournament Seedings – 3/2

The picture is getting much clearer. Everybody has one game left except NC State, who is done. Here is how things stand.

Miami (14-5; vs. Pitt remaining)

If Miami beats Pitt, they are the 1 seed. If they lose to Pitt, there are a lot of possible ties, including the possibility of a four-way tie for second between Miami, Virginia, Duke, and Clemson. Miami beat Virginia and Clemson this year, so in general they do well in those tiebreakers, but the one tie they could lose is a two way tie with Duke. They split with the Blue Devils, and Duke beat Pitt while Miami did not (if they lose). So if Virginia wins, Duke wins, and Clemson loses, then Virginia is the 2, Duke is the 3, and Miami is the 4.

Pitt (14-5; at Miami remaining)

Pitt’s ACC Tournament seed is the least of their worries right now. They need to beat Miami to solidify an NCAA Tournament berth, which in my opinion is in real jeopardy after their loss to Notre Dame. If they do manage to win, they’re the 1 seed by virtue of their tiebreaker advantage over Virginia. If they lose, they could fall as far as the 5 if Duke and Clemson both win.

Virginia (14-5; vs. Louisville remaining)

Virginia is headed for the 2 seed. I’ll eat my hat if they lose to Louisville at home. But if the unthinkable does happen, they’re still the 3 as they have the tiebreaker over Duke and Clemson.

Clemson (13-6; vs. ND remaining)

If Clemson wins, they’ll be tied with the loser of Pitt-Miami, and possibly Duke, and possibly Virginia. That could turn out in a variety of different ways, as the Tigers beat Pitt and Duke but lost to Miami and Virginia. So it really depends on whom they are tied with. I don’t think it’s possible for them to get the 2, but it’s very hard to tell who wins a 4-way tie between Virginia, Pitt, Clemson, and Duke. I think Virginia does. So the Tigers get the 3 or the 4 if they win. If they lose, they’re the 5 unless Duke also loses, in which case they’re the 4.

Duke (13-6; at UNC remaining)

Like Clemson, Duke gets into lots of 14-6 tiebreaker scenarios if they win. They split with Miami, they beat Pitt, they lost to Clemson and Virginia. Can they get the 2 seed? Let’s see, their best scenario would be a tie for second with Pitt and Virginia (which means Clemson has to lose). That’s a challenging tiebreaker, but I think Pitt would win it. So no, I don’t think Duke can get the 2. But they can get the 3 if they wind up in a 2-way tie for third the Pitt-Miami loser. Which would mean Virginia would have to win and Clemson would have to lose. If the Blue Devils lose, they are the 5.

NC State (12-8; finished)

NC State is the 6 seed unless Carolina beats Duke and Pitt beats Miami, in which case they fall to 7.

UNC (11-8; vs. Duke remaining)

The Tar Heels are the 7 unless they beat Duke and Pitt beats Miami, in which case they are the 6.

Wake (10-9; at Syracuse remaining)

Wake is the 8 if they win. If they lose, they are the 9 if BC loses and the 10 if BC wins.

Syracuse (9-10, vs. Wake remaining)

The Orange are the 8 if they win. If they lose, they’re the 9 if BC loses, the 10 if BC wins.

Boston College (9-10; vs. GT remaining)

BC is the 10 if they lose. If they win, they can be the 9 if Wake loses.

Florida State (7-12; at Va Tech remaining)

The winner of FSU – Va Tech is the 11 and the loser is the 12.

Virginia Tech (7-12; vs. FSU remaining)

The winner of FSU – Va Tech is the 11 and the loser is the 12.

Georgia Tech (5-14; at BC remaining)

The Jackets are the 13. It’s locked.

Notre Dame (3-16; at Clemson remaining)

Notre Dame is the 14. It’s locked.

Louisville (2-17; at Virginia remaining)

Denny Crum must be turning over in his grave.

ACC Tournament Seeding Scenario Update – 2/26

After an eventful Saturday, the tournament picture is becoming clearer. Certainly the shock of the day was Florida State’s incredible comeback win over Miami. Considering the circumstances – down by 25 at halftime, on the road, nothing but pride to play for, home team had a lot to play for, and playing a way better team – that’s got to be right up there with the most unlikely comebacks in college basketball history.

Meanwhile, NC State suffered an absolute beatdown at the hands of Clemson. With that loss, any hopes the Wolfpack had of getting a double bye evaporated. Here is where things stand overall:

Pitt (14-4; at ND, at Miami remaining)

Best possible seed: 1

Worst possible seed: 5

The Panthers are in the driver’s seat. With a win over Notre Dame on Wednesday, they can clinch a tie for first place and no worse than a 3 seed. But they have to beat Miami to get the 1 seed. The worst scenario for the Panthers is a 3-way tie for third at 14-6 with Clemson and Duke. In that case, the Panthers would get the 5.

Miami (14-5; vs. Pitt remaining)

Best possible seed: 1

Worst possible seed: 3

Miami is the only team who has clinched a bye, and the Hurricanes still control their own destiny. Beat Pitt and Miami is #1. Why? It comes down to tiebreakers, and the fact that Miami has a better record against Clemson and Duke than Pitt does. The worst scenario for the Hurricanes is third place at 14-6. They could be tied with the loser of Clemson-Virginia and possibly Duke, but it doesn’t matter as the Hurricanes would win that tiebreaker. They can’t drop any lower than 3.

Virginia (13-5; vs. Clemson, vs. Louisville remaining)

Best possible seed: 2

Worst possible seed: 5

The best Virginia can do is a first-place tie with the winner of Pitt-Miami, and they would lose that tiebreaker.  The worst the Cavaliers could do is a 5th-place tie with either Duke or NC State at 13-7.  Either way, UVa would win that tie and be the 5 seed.

Clemson (13-5; at Virginia, vs. ND remaining)

Best possible seed: 1

Worst possible seed: 5

Suddenly Clemson as the 1 seed isn’t all that farfetched if they can win their last two games. They have the tiebreaker over Pitt. What they need is for Pitt to stumble against Notre Dame and then to beat Miami. If Pitt beats Notre Dame but loses to Miami, there could be a 3-way tie for first, which Miami would win, and Clemson would be the 2 seed. The Tigers can do no worse than the 5 seed as they are guaranteed to finish ahead of NC State.

Duke (12-6; vs. NC State, at UNC remaining)

Best possible seed: 3

Worst possible seed: 8

Duke cannot get to first, but if they win their last two games, they could finish in a tie for second with some combination of Pitt or Miami (not both), Clemson, and Virginia. A 4-way tie is possible. They beat Pitt, split with Miami, and lost to both Clemson and Virginia. I cannot find a way for them to get the 2 seed. The problem is, there is no way for them to get into a 2-way tie for second with Miami or Pitt; either Clemson or Virginia is guaranteed to be there as well, and that messes up Duke’s tiebreakers. In a Pitt/Duke/Virginia tie for second, the tiebreakers are very complicated, but I think they favor Pitt. It is possible for the Blue Devils to fall to 8 if they lose their last two games and finish in a 3-way tie with UNC and Wake for 6th place. In that case, head-to-head would be even, and one scenario that would not favor the Blue Devils would be if Clemson got the 1 seed. Wake and Carolina beat Clemson and Duke did not, so Duke would wind up as the 8.

NC State (12-7; at Duke remaining)

Best possible seed: 5

Worst possible seed: 7

The Wolfpack can’t finish ahead of any of the top four teams. They didn’t beat Pitt, Virginia, or Clemson this year and that puts them on the wrong end of any tiebreakers.  If they beat Duke, they are the 5. If they lose to Duke, they are the 6, unless UNC wins out AND Clemson wins out AND Pitt beats Miami. In that case the Wolfpack would lose the tiebreaker to UNC and drop to the 7.

UNC (10-8; at FSU, vs. Duke remaining)

Best possible seed: 6

Worst possible seed: 9

If they win out, the Tar Heels could finish tied for 6th with the loser of NC State-Duke.  In that scenario, they would have split the regular season with either, so it would come down to who did better against the best team in the standings. They can’t be worse than 9th.

Wake (10-8; vs. BC, at Syracuse remaining)

Best possible seed: 6

Worst possible seed: 9

If Wake could win out and finish tied for 6th with Duke, they could get the 6 if Clemson gets the 1.  Like Carolina, they can’t drop past 9.

Syracuse (9-9; vs. GT, vs. Wake remaining)

Best possible seed: 7

Worst possible seed: 10

Syracuse is the 7 if they win their last two and UNC loses their last two.  If they lose their last two and BC wins their last two, they’re the 10.

Boston College (8-10; at Wake, vs. GT remaining)

Best possible seed: 9

Worst possible seed: 11

The Eagles can’t finish ahead of UNC or Wake, but they can jump Syracuse if they win their last two and Syracuse loses their last two.  They lose all tiebreaker scenarios with UNC, Wake, and Syracuse.  If BC loses out, they could finish in a tie for 11th with either FSU or Virginia Tech, both of whom they own the tiebreaker advantage over.

Florida State (7-11; vs. UNC, at Va Tech remaining)

Best possible seed: 10

Worst possible seed: 12

The only team they can jump is BC, and they don’t have the tiebreaker, so they have to pass them outright.  They can’t do worse than 12th.

Virginia Tech (6-12; at Louisville, vs. FSU remaining)

Best possible seed: 11

Worst possible seed: 13

The only team they can jump is FSU.  They drop to 13 if they lose out and Georgia Tech wins out.

Georgia Tech (4-14; at Syracuse, at BC remaining)

Best possible seed: 12

Worst possible seed: 15

The Jackets will be the 12 if they win out and Virginia Tech loses out.  They split with both Notre Dame and Louisville. I think there are some tiebreaker scenarios they would lose.

Notre Dame (2-16; vs. Pitt, at Clemson remaining)

Best possible seed: 13

Worst possible seed: 15

Still could get the 13 if they win out and Georgia Tech loses out.  They have the tiebreaker over Louisville.

Louisville (2-16; vs. Va Tech, at Virginia remaining)

Best possible seed: 13

Worst possible seed: 15

I think they can get the 13 if they win out, Georgia Tech loses out, and Virginia finishes in second place behind Miami.

ACC Tournament Seeding Scenarios

Elaborating on my post from yesterday, I thought it might be interesting to take a more in depth look at each team’s best and worst ACC tournament seed scenarios.

Miami (14-4; vs. FSU, vs. Pitt remaining)

Best possible seed: 1

Worst possible seed: 4

Miami controls its own destiny.  If they beat Pitt, they are #1, unless they lose at home to FSU AND Virginia wins out.  Even if they lose to Pitt, they can still be #1 with a little help.  I can find one scenario where they fall to #4, although the tiebreakers are complicated as heck.  But if Miami, Clemson, Pitt, and Duke all finish tied for second at 14-6 behind Virginia, I believe the Hurricanes would get the 4.

Pitt (13-4; vs. Syracuse, at ND, at Miami remaining)

Best possible seed: 1

Worst possible seed: 6

Pitt also controls its destiny.  Win out, and the Panthers are the 1 seed.  The already have a win over Miami and a win over Virginia, so tiebreaker scenarios are kind to them.  But winning out means winning at Miami – a long shot.  Pitt’s low end scenario is a 5th place tie at 13-7 with NC State or Duke.  The Panthers would lose a tie with Duke, so they would wind up as the 6 seed if they lose out, NC State wins out, and Duke beats UNC and Virginia Tech.

Virginia (13-4; at UNC, vs. Clemson, vs. Louisville remaining)

Best possible seed: 1

Worst possible seed: 5

Virginia lost to Miami and Pitt, so in general, they don’t do well in top end tiebreaker scenarios.  The only way they get the 1 seed is to be in first place outright.  Which probably means winning out and having Pitt beat Miami but lose one of their other two games.  The worst the Cavaliers could do is a 5th-place tie with either Duke or NC State at 13-7.  Either way, UVa would win that tie and be the 5 seed.

Clemson (12-5; at NC State, at Virginia, vs. ND remaining)

Best possible seed: 1

Worst possible seed: 8

Clemson has a wide range of possible seeds.  Their 1 seed scenarios involve them winning out and Miami losing out, so I wouldn’t hold my breath.  But the Tigers already have a win over Pitt, and they play Virginia on Tuesday.  If they win that one, then they have some tiebreaker advantages and a 2 seed is very much in play if they can win out.  On the other hand, if the Tigers lose out, it’s possible they could finish in a 3-way tie for 6th at 12-8 with UNC and Wake, both of whom beat them earlier in the season, in which case Clemson would get the 8.

NC State (12-6; vs. Clemson, at Duke remaining)

Best possible seed: 2

Worst possible seed: 8

The Wolfpack don’t fare well in top end tiebreaker scenarios due to their losses to Pitt and Virginia.  They split with Miami and are hoping for a split with Clemson.  The only scenario I can find where they get the 2 seed is if they finish in a second place tie at 14-6 with Clemson, behind Miami.  This would require that both Virginia and Pitt lose out, which isn’t going to happen.  The worst scenario for the Wolfpack is a 3-way tie for 6th at 12-8 with UNC and Syracuse.  If that happens, the Wolfpack will be the 8.

Duke (11-6; vs. Virginia Tech, vs. NC State, at UNC remaining)

Best possible seed: 2

Worst possible seed: 9

Duke can get the 2 seed if they win out and Miami loses out and Virginia loses out.  And maybe some other stuff.  But it can happen.  Duke drops all the way down to 9 if they lose out and finish tied for 8th with Wake at 11-9 (which implies that UNC and Syracuse both win out), and Clemson finishes ahead of Miami and Pitt.  Just trust me.

UNC (9-8; vs. Virginia, at FSU, vs. Duke remaining)

Best possible seed: 5

Worst possible seed: 11

The Tar Heels get the 5 if they win out, Clemson loses out, and Duke finishes no better than 12-8.  Substitute NC State for Clemson in the previous sentence, and it holds, except that tiebreaker scenario is more complicated and would also require that Clemson finish ahead of Miami.  Again, trust me.  The worst scenario for the Tar Heels would be if they lose out and finish in a tie with either Virginia Tech or FSU for 10th place at 9-11.  The Tar Heels would lose the tiebreaker and get the 11 seed.

Wake (9-8; vs. Notre Dame, vs. BC, at Syracuse remaining)

Best possible seed: 5

Worst possible seed: 10

Really unfortunate news about Damari Monsanto.  Wake does have a favorable schedule remaining though, and if they can win out, they would get the 5 seed if Clemson loses out and Duke is no better than 12-8.  Wake’s worst possible finish is a 10th place tie with either FSU or Virginia Tech at 9-11; the Deacons have the tiebreaker over both, so they can’t be lower than 10th.

Syracuse (9-8; at Pitt, vs. GT, vs. Wake remaining)

Best possible seed: 6

Worst possible seed: 11

If Syracuse can win out, they could get the 6 if either NC State or Duke loses out.  They might need UNC to lose a game too, depending on various tiebreaker scenarios.  They could finish as low as 11 if they lose out and finish tied for 10th at 9-11 with Virginia Tech.  The Orange split their 2 games with the Hokies this year, so that tiebreaker would depend on other things. 

Boston College (8-10; at Wake, vs. GT remaining)

Best possible seed: 8

Worst possible seed: 11

The Eagles’ scenarios are comparatively clear.  They are the 8 seed if they win out, UNC loses out, and either Wake or Syracuse loses out.  They lose all tiebreaker scenarios with UNC, Wake, and Syracuse.  If BC finishes 8-12, they could finish in a tie for 11th with either FSU or Virginia Tech, both of whom they own the tiebreaker advantage over.

Virginia Tech (6-11; at Duke, at Louisville, vs. FSU remaining)

Best possible seed: 8

Worst possible seed: 13

The Hokies hope to get themselves into a 3-way tie for 8th with UNC and Syracuse at 9-11.  In that case, they would get the 8 seed.  They could go as low as 13 if they lose out and Georgia Tech wins out.

Florida State (6-11; at Miami, vs. UNC, at Va Tech remaining)

Best possible seed: 8

Worst possible seed: 12

Like Virginia Tech, FSU’s best scenario is to win out and have UNC and Syracuse lose out.  In that case, FSU would “probably” get the tiebreaker because of their win over Pitt.  The Seminoles can’t fall any farther than where they are right now – 12th.

Georgia Tech (3-14; vs. Louisville, at Syracuse, at BC remaining)

Best possible seed: 12

Worst possible seed: 15

The Jackets will be the 12 if they win out and Virginia Tech loses out.  They’ll be the 15 if they finish below Notre Dame and Louisville.

Notre Dame (2-15; at Wake, vs. Pitt, at Clemson remaining)

Best possible seed: 13

Worst possible seed: 15

The Irish sure look like they’re headed for a 2-18 ACC finish.  If they can jump over Georgia Tech, they’re the 13; if they drop below Louisville, they’re the 15.  They have the tiebreaker over Louisville.  They split with Georgia Tech, so that’s a little dicier.

Louisville (2-15; at GT, vs. Va Tech, at Virginia remaining)

Best possible seed: 13

Worst possible seed: 15

The Cardinals have shown some growth down the stretch here.  Let’s see if they can get out of the cellar.

ACC Tournament Outlook – 2/23

I spent some time today looking at the ACC standings and thinking about how the tournament might play out. With 2-3 regular season games left for each team, a lot could still happen, but we can start to play out some scenarios. There are natural groupings in the current standings: the Top 6; 7-9; 10; 11-12; and 13-15.

Recall the format of the tournament. Seeds 10-15 have to play the dreaded Tuesday games. At this point, it is certain that Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Louisville will be playing, and all but certain that Virginia Tech and Florida State will be joining them. It’s likely that BC will be the 10 seed, but you cannot rule out them moving up to the 9 if they can win their last two games.

Seeds 5-9 make their first appearances on Wednesday. The current group of 9-8 teams, UNC, Syracuse, and Wake, will be in this group, unless BC bumps one of them. The 5 and 6 teams are NC State and Duke right now, but that could change. The most likely team to fall from the top 4 into this range is Clemson. The Tigers have tough road games left at NC State and at Virginia. If they lose both, they will likely find themselves as a 5 or 6 seed.

The top four seeds get the treasured double bye and don’t have to play until Thursday. It is certain that these teams will come from the current Top 6. The number one seed is very likely to be Miami. Their schedule is favorable to finish 16-4, and they have the tiebreaker over Virginia. Pitt has a chance if they can win out, which would include winning at Miami, which would give them a season sweep of the Hurricanes. There are also scenarios where Clemson winds up as the 1 seed if they win out and get some help. Virginia in general does not win tiebreaker scenarios, so the only way they wind up as the 1 is if they win out and finish first outright.

I don’t think it’s possible for State or Duke to be the 1 seed. Each of them could finish in a first place tie if they win out and Miami loses two games and a bunch of other things happen that aren’t going to happen. But even if they all do happen, State and Duke don’t win the tiebreakers that I can see.

Thinking about what would be the best seed for State, two things come to mind. One, you’d like to avoid Miami and Duke for as long as possible. The most difficult road would be Duke in the 4/5 game in the quarterfinals, then #1 Miami in the semis. And that’s entirely possible. You’d almost rather be the 6 seed, where it’s more likely that you would play Pitt and/or UVa in the quarters and semis. Of course you want to win every game, but Wolfpack fans shouldn’t be too disappointed if NC State beats Clemson, loses to Duke, and winds up as the 6. Although a downside to that is, you might wind up playing Virginia Tech, the scariest of the 10-15 teams, on Wednesday.

The second thing to think about is, State is the odd team out on the last weekend of the regular season. Their last regular season game is actually Tuesday against Duke. So by the time the tournament comes around, they won’t have played for over a week. That’s where I think the double bye could work against them. I’d rather be the 5 or 6 seed and get a Wednesday “warm-up” game than to get the 4 seed, in which case their first game in nine days would be a quarterfinal against a really good team, probably Duke.

What about Carolina? As everyone knows, they need Quad I wins. Who do they need to play to get them? On a neutral court, that’s Miami, Virginia, NC State, and Duke. That’s who they need to beat to improve their tournament resume. They’ll have to win a Wednesday game in order to get the chance, and even then, they could end up matched with Pitt or Clemson in the quarters. Between their remaining regular season games against Virginia and Duke and the tournament, I think they need two Quad I wins to get in.

Miami certainly seems like the favorite, with Duke and NC State being the trendy picks for “teams nobody wants to play right now”. But I don’t know that I can recall a more wide open tournament. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see any of the current top 9 teams win it.

How UNC Can Make the College Football Playoff

The Tar Heels currently sit at number 15 in the CFP rankings. According to fivethirtyeight.com, they have a 6% chance to make the college football playoff. So what has to happen for the Tar Heels to leapfrog 11 teams and get into the top four?

First things first. They have to win out, and that includes the ACC championship over Clemson. Clemson is one of the teams in front of them. So that’s one team passed.

Also, I think just by winning out, the Tar Heels will leapfrog Penn State. I don’t see the committee putting two-loss Penn State in the CFP over one-loss, ACC champion Carolina. That’s two teams passed.

Then there are head-to-head matchups of two teams ahead of UNC where somebody has to lose, and the loser is likely to fall behind the Tar Heels. USC-UCLA, Oregon-Utah, and Alabama-Ole Miss fall into that category. That’s five teams passed. We’ve gotten the Tar Heels up to number 10.

LSU needs to lose a game. If it doesn’t happen against Arkansas or Texas A&M, Georgia will see to it in the SEC championship. That’s six teams passed.

So let’s review where we are. We’ve gotten the Tar Heels up to number 9. The eight teams in front of them are Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, TCU, the Oregon-Utah winner, the USC-UCLA winner, and the Alabama-Ole Miss winner. Who else can the Tar Heels leapfrog?

Let’s start with TCU. The Horned Frogs still have to play at Texas, at Baylor, Iowa State at home, and probably the Big 12 Championship. Fivethirtyeight gives TCU only a 10% chance to win out. Now the question is, is one TCU loss enough for UNC to pass them? It’s hard to say, and I’m not sure what the committee would do in that situation. It might depend on which game they lose. If TCU loses one regular season game but still wins the Big 12 Championship, I think they would still be ahead of the Tar Heels. The only safe bet for UNC is for TCU to lose two games. The good news is, with TCU’s remaining schedule, there’s a pretty good chance of that happening. So count TCU as a team the Tar Heels would have a decent chance of passing.

Then there’s the Pac-12. We’ve already noted that two of the four teams ahead of the Tar Heels are guaranteed to lose due to head-to-head matchups. But there are lots more opportunities for Pac-12 teams to lose. USC still has to play Notre Dame. Oregon, in addition to their game with Utah, still has to play Washington and at Oregon State. And then there’s the Pac-12 championship game. According to fivethirtyeight, Oregon has an 80% chance of losing at least one more game, USC 85%, UCLA 84%, and Utah 73%.

Other than all four Pac-12 teams losing, the best case scenario for the Tar Heels would probably be for Utah to win out and then to beat the USC-UCLA winner in the Pac-12 championship. This would mean at least one more loss for Oregon, USC, and UCLA. It’s not certain that two-loss Utah would remain ahead of one-loss UNC in the CFP standings.

The Pac-12 picture is complex, but suffice it to say that there is a good chance that the Tar Heels could pass all four.

Then there is the Alabama-Ole Miss winner. If it’s Ole Miss, they still have two more tough games remaining, at Arkansas and Mississippi State. The Rebels have only a 10% chance to win out according to fivethirtyeight. The other issue is that it’s unlikely that the Alabama-Ole Miss winner will play in the SEC Championship game. Will the committee put an SEC team that didn’t win its division in the playoff over one-loss ACC Champion Carolina? I don’t think so, although a one-loss Ole Miss team vs. one-loss UNC would be a tough call.

So now we’ve come up with plausible scenarios where the Tar Heels leapfrog everyone but Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and Tennessee. Which of those four teams is leap-able?

Georgia… I don’t see that happening. They would have to lose two games, and they aren’t going to.

Tennessee still has a game at South Carolina. I don’t think they’ll lose, but it’s possible.

That brings us to Ohio State and Michigan. Obviously, they still have to play each other. So the first question is, could Carolina jump over the loser of that game? If it’s Ohio State, I say no. If it’s Michigan… I still don’t think so, unless the Buckeyes blow them out. That would be an interesting committee decision, to decide between a one-loss Big 10 team that didn’t win its division and one-loss ACC champion UNC. My guess is the Big 10 team would get the nod.

So I think the Tar Heels are going to need an upset. They need either Tennessee to lose another game, or for Ohio State or Michigan to lose another game besides their head-to-head matchup. Ohio State has a game at Maryland, Michigan has a game against Illinois, and of course there’s the Big 10 Championship.

How likely is all of this? Well, the good news for Tar Heel fans is that while UNC has but a 6% chance of making the CFP overall, that probability goes up to 51% if they win out. The teams they have to leapfrog have a lot of tough games left and most of them are going to lose one along the way. Based on the scenarios above, I can easily see the Tar Heels getting to number 5 if they win out. But passing one of the current top four is going to require an upset and is a bit of a stretch.

Armando Bacot

Since I recently finished my series on the ACC’s 100 greatest players, I’ve been thinking about Armando Bacot and where he might fit into that group eventually. Bacot has a chance to do some amazing things. Let’s start with this. Last season, Bacot became the first ACC player in 66 years to grab 500 rebounds.

ACC 500 Rebound Seasons:

  • Dickie Hemric, 1955, 515
  • Ronnie Shavlik, 1955, 581
  • Ronnie Shavlik, 1956, 545
  • Armando Bacot, 2022, 511

Bacot needs 498 rebounds this season to become the fifth player in ACC history to have 1500 career rebounds.

ACC Career Rebound Leaders:

  • Hemric, 1802 (partially in Southern Conference)
  • Tim Duncan, 1570
  • Shavlik, 1567 (in 3 years)
  • Ralph Sampson, 1511

Bacot also has a chance to become the ACC’s 43rd 2000 point scorer. He needs 699 points. For reference, he had 635 last year. So it could happen. He needs one more bucket per game than he had last year.

Let’s play out the best-case scenario. Let’s say Bacot is National Player of the Year, ACC Player of the Year, and gets to 2000 career points and 1500 career rebounds – none of which is farfetched. Where would he rank in the Top 100? I think he’d be in the 20s, somewhere around Mark Price and Shavlik, in that range. If the Tar Heels could win the national championship, also not farfetched, maybe he could sneak into the teens, into Mike Gminski territory.

If Bacot is ACC Player of the Year and first team All-America, even if he doesn’t do all those other things, he’s probably a Top 50 player, similar to a Shelden Williams.

It hurts Bacot a bit that he didn’t win ACC Player of the Year last year. With all due respect to Alondes Williams, I think that vote was questionable.

When is the last time that an ACC player as good as Bacot came back for another year? I think you have to go back to Tyler Hansbrough in 2009. Hansbrough’s play slipped a little bit in his senior year, but he still had a great year, and the Tar Heels won the national championship. We’ll see how things play out for Bacot.

ACC Bowl Outlook 11/6

I’ve never done an ACC football post before, but today seems like a good day to do it. With three weeks to go, the ACC’s bowl prospects are starting to become at least a little bit clearer.

It’s not that easy to find concrete information on how bowl teams are selected. Most fans know that you have to win six games against FCS opponents in order to qualify. Except when you don’t; 5-7 teams can qualify if there aren’t enough six-win teams to fill the docket.

Some conferences have a clear pecking order among the bowls, but the ACC does not. There are Tier One bowls and Tier Two bowls, but within those groupings, it seems that specific selections are made in a smoke-filled room.

But one thing is very clear: the ACC champion goes to the Orange Bowl, unless that team makes the CFP, in which case the next highest-ranked team goes to the Orange Bowl. That has come into play in past years with Clemson making the CFP, but it almost certainly will not this year. It is difficult to imagine Clemson or UNC making the CFP this year. So I’m going to simplify things by saying that the ACC champion will be in the Orange Bowl.

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic division and a spot in the ACC championship game. UNC is very close; one more win would clinch the division, and even if UNC were to lose out, they could still make it with some help.

At this point, the ACC has eight bowl-eligible teams (Clemson, NC State, Syracuse, Louisville, FSU, Wake Forest, UNC, and Duke), with Pitt very likely to be a ninth. And there’s a good chance that will be it; I assess Miami’s chances of becoming bowl-eligible at 29%, Georgia Tech’s at 11%, and Virginia’s at 10%.

So most likely, the ACC will have nine bowl eligible teams. Then there’s Notre Dame. As a quasi-independent, Notre Dame’s relationship with the bowls is complicated, but because the Irish have three losses, it’s a little easier this year. Basically, they will take one of the ACC’s Tier One bowl slots. I guess you can’t completely rule out a 9-3 Notre Dame team getting into a New Year’s Six bowl, but that would require them winning at USC, and even then I’m not sure they’d make it.

So let’s summarize. The ACC will probably have nine bowl-eligible teams, plus Notre Dame. There are eight Tier One bowls, plus the Orange Bowl, and three Tier Two bowls. To complicate matters, the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Outback Bowl) is traditionally a Big Ten – SEC matchup, but if the Orange Bowl selects a Big Ten team instead of an SEC team to play against the ACC team, then the ACC gets that slot in the ReliaQuest Bowl, which becomes a ninth Tier One Bowl. Here is the rundown in list form:

ACC Champion goes to the Orange Bowl (if not selected for CFP)

Tier One Bowls:

  • Cheez-It Bowl – Orlando
  • Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Charlotte
  • Fenway Bowl – Fenway Park
  • Military Bowl – Annapolis, MD
  • New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Yankee Stadium
  • ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl (only if Big Ten is selected for Orange Bowl) – Tampa
  • Holiday Bowl – San Diego
  • Gator Bowl – Jacksonville
  • Sun Bowl – El Paso, TX

Tier Two Bowls:

  • Gasparilla Bowl – Tampa
  • Birmingham Bowl – Birmingham
  • First Responder Bowl – Dallas

Right now, it seems unlikely that the ACC will get a team into the ReliaQuest Bowl. That probably comes down to Penn State or Illinois being selected for the Orange Bowl over Alabama or Ole Miss. The only chance I see of that happening is if Alabama and Ole Miss both lose another game. Even then I’m not sure. ACC fans should be pulling for this scenario. Best chance would probably be Ole Miss beating Alabama then losing to Mississippi State.

Assuming for the moment that the ACC doesn’t get a spot in the CFP or the ReliaQuest, here’s how I see it playing out, team by team, for the teams that are still relevant.

Clemson

Games Remaining: vs. Louisville, vs. Miami, vs. South Carolina

Possible Records: 11-1 (41% chance), 10-2 (44%), 9-3 (14%), 8-4 (1%)

Bowl Possibilities: As mentioned earlier, it’s hard for me to see Clemson making the CFP, even if they win out. They would need a lot of help. And I give them only about a 25% chance of winning out, including the championship. If the Tigers do win the ACC title, they’ll head to the Orange Bowl. If they lose the title game, it could get interesting. The Cheez-It Bowl would be the obvious choice, but they played there last year. My guess is they would wind up going to the Gator Bowl.

Duke

Games Remaining: vs. Virginia Tech, at Pitt, vs. Wake Forest

Possible Records: 9-3 (8%), 8-4 (34%), 7-5 (43%), 6-6 (15%)

Bowl Possibilities: Duke seems like a good fit for the Pinstripe Bowl (although the Pinstripe may go for Syracuse). The Military and Fenway Bowls are also possibilities. The Blue Devils can still win the Coastal Division if they win out and UNC loses out; I’d give that about a 1% chance of happening.

Florida State

Games Remaining: at Syracuse, Louisiana, Florida

Possible Records: 9-3 (20%), 8-4 (44%), 7-5 (30%), 6-6 (6%)

Bowl Possibilities: Florida State is an attractive team. If they could win out, it’s possible the Gator Bowl would pick them over Notre Dame. Otherwise, they’re probably headed to the Sun Bowl, Holiday Bowl, or Military Bowl. They could be a candidate for Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte if NC State doesn’t go there for whatever reason.

Georgia Tech

Games Remaining: vs. Miami, at UNC, at Georgia

Possible Records: 7-5 (<1%), 6-6 (11%), 5-7 (47%), 4-8 (43%)

Bowl Possibilities: probably not gonna happen. Tier Two bowl if they sneak in.

Louisville

Games Remaining: at Clemson, vs. NC State, at Kentucky

Possible Records: 9-3 (10%), 8-4 (36%), 7-5 (41%), 6-6 (14%)

Bowl Possibilities: The Cardinals have a similar profile to Florida State and will likely be competing with the Seminoles for the same bowls (Sun, Holiday, Military). They have a tough schedule remaining, however, and will be hard-pressed to do better than 7-5. I’d give them a little higher probability than the Seminoles of dropping to the Military Bowl.

Miami

Games Remaining: at Georgia Tech, at Clemson, vs. Pitt

Possible Records: 7-5 (3%), 6-6 (26%), 5-7 (48%), 4-8 (23%)

Bowl Possibilities: I don’t think it’s going to happen because the ‘Canes are terrible. If they do manage to make it to 6-6, they’ll be relegated to one of the Tier 2 bowls, maybe the Gasparilla.

NC State

Games Remaining: vs. Boston College, at Louisville, at UNC

Possible Records: 10-2 (15%), 9-3 (45%), 8-4 (35%), 7-5 (5%)

Bowl Possibilities: If the Wolfpack could win out, they would probably force their way into either the Gator or Cheez-It Bowl, although they’ve been to the Gator Bowl quite a lot recently. Otherwise, they probably wind up in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte. I don’t see them going back to the Holiday Bowl after last year’s fiasco. The Sun Bowl is a possibility.

North Carolina

Games Remaining: at Wake Forest, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. NC State

Possible Records: 11-1 (18%), 10-2 (44%), 9-3 (32%), 8-4 (6%)

Bowl Possibilities: If UNC wins the ACC, they’ll go to the Orange Bowl. If they lose, they’ll probably go to the Cheez-It Bowl. Things would get interesting if UNC finishes 9-4; in that scenario, they could fall farther to a Sun or Holiday.

Notre Dame

Games Remaining: at Navy, vs. Boston College, at USC

Possible Records: 9-3 (43%), 8-4 (47%), 7-5 (9%), 6-6 (<1%)

Bowl Possibilities: 9-3 Notre Dame would be very attractive, and you wonder if they could even squeeze into a New Year’s six bowl, considering that would involve winning at USC in their last game. It stinks for the ACC, but even 8-4 Notre Dame would likely get a Cheez-It or Gator Bowl slot over an ACC team.

Pitt

Games Remaining: at Virginia, vs. Duke, at Miami

Possible Records: 8-4 (27%), 7-5 (44%), 6-6 (25%), 5-7 (4%)

Bowl Possibilities: Pitt has the easiest remaining schedule of any team listed here. But I’m not sure how much it matters for their bowl prospects. They seem likely to go to one of the northern bowls: Military, Fenway, or Pinstripe. Pitt could also fall to the second tier, especially if they don’t win out.

Syracuse

Games Remaining: vs. Florida State, at Wake Forest, at Boston College

Possible Records: 9-3 (14%), 8-4 (41%), 7-5 (36%), 6-6 (8%)

Bowl Possibilities: The Orange are reeling after losing three straight, and it doesn’t get any easier with FSU and Wake the next two weeks. They seem like a good bet for the Fenway or Pinstripe Bowls. They are one of the teams that could fall to the second tier.

Virginia

Games Remaining: vs. Pitt, vs. Coastal Carolina, at Virginia Tech

Possible Records: 6-6 (10%), 5-7 (35%), 4-8 (40%), 3-9 (15%)

Bowl Possibilities: The Cavaliers have a faint pulse. If they can win out, they’ll wind up in a Tier Two bowl.

Wake Forest

Games Remaining: vs. UNC, vs. Syracuse, at Duke

Possible Records: 9-3 (19%), 8-4 (42%), 7-5 (31%), 6-6 (8%)

Bowl Possibilities: Wake could go in a lot of directions. A good case can be made for winning or losing each of their last three games. A 9-3 or 8-4 Wake team probably winds up in the Holiday or Sun Bowl. A 7-5 or 6-6 Wake team, which would mean a losing record in the ACC, is more likely to fall to Military, Fenway, or even a Tier Two.

Honorable Mention

As a way of wrapping up this series, I thought it would be good to make a list of other players who received serious consideration for the Top 100.  If you took my last 25 players and replaced them with some of these guys, you wouldn’t be losing much.  I list them in chronological order.

Joe Belmont, Duke, 1954-1956; Ronnie Mayer, Duke, 1954-1956; Lefty Davis, Wake Forest, 1954-1956

Belmont, Mayer, Davis, and #99 Vic Molodet of NC State formed a quartet of players who all played from 1954-1956 and are very difficult to distinguish.  In terms of career All-ACC balloting, Mayer received 452 points, Molodet 434, Belmont 401, Davis 385. 

Tommy Kearns, UNC, 1956-1958

Kearns and #74 Pete Brennan were the key players supporting #17 Lennie Rosenbluth on the 1957 championship team.  In 1958, without Rosenbluth, Kearns made first team All-ACC, but Brennan was ACC Player of the Year.

Doug Moe, UNC, 1959-1961

I had Moe on my list for a while but eventually took him off.  He was academically ineligible in the fall of 1959 and missed over half the Tar Heels’ games.  That probably kept him from being a three-time first-team All-ACC player and cost him a spot on the list.

Coach Bill Strannigan of Wyoming says he has seen only one basketball player better than North Carolina’s Doug Moe, 6-foot-6 senior.  “He was Wilt Chamberlain when he played for Kansas,” says Strannigan.  – The York Dispatch, York, PA, February 28, 1961

Bob Leonard, Wake Forest, 1964-1966

A prolific scorer who arrived just after the glory years of Chappell and Packer. Two-time first team All-ACC and two-time first team All-Tournament. He is the only player with the particular collection of honors who is not in the Top 100.

Eddie Biedenbach, NC State, 1965-1968

Two-time first team All-ACC player who was recruited by Everett Case, played two years for Press Maravich after Case resigned, missed a year with an injury, then played his last year for Norm Sloan.

Tom Owens, South Carolina, 1969-1971; Randy Denton, Duke, 1969-1971

Owens and Denton are similar players who played at the same time.  They finished first and second in rebounds per game all three seasons.  Owens finished his career with 444 All-ACC points; Denton had 442.  Owens was also an outstanding ACC Tournament performer, making first team All-Tournament twice.

Tate Armstrong, Duke, 1974-1977

A sharpshooting Texan, Armstrong was a tremendous scorer who didn’t have any help for most of his career. Then, once help arrived in the form of Spanarkel and Gminski, he went and broke his wrist and missed the second half of his senior year. He probably would have led the league in scoring and made first team All-ACC for the second time. That 1977 Duke team was sneaky good and a keen observer might have perceived that some magic was in the air in 1978.

Walter Davis, UNC, 1974-1977

“Sweet D” was a tremendous player who played at the same time as Kenny Carr, Skip Brown, and Tree Rollins. Overall he seems just behind them in terms of his accomplishments. He is perhaps another player who was held back a bit by playing for Dean Smith; when he got to the NBA, he was immediately one of the best players in the league.

Buck Williams, Maryland, 1979-1981

Williams was named to the 2003 list of the ACC’s 50 greatest players.  I don’t see how you name someone who never made first team All-ACC to the Top 50, but he was very good.

Othell Wilson, Virginia, 1981-1984

Wilson was the other guy on the #2 Ralph Sampson powerhouse Virginia teams.  His injury in 1982 may have cost the Cavaliers a chance to go to the Final Four that year.  But Wilson was a starter on two other Final Four teams (1981 and 1984).  He was first team All-ACC as a sophomore and barely missed as a junior.

Elden Campbell, Clemson, 1987-1990; Dale Davis, Clemson, 1988-1991

I stared at these two for hours and ultimately gave up.  I couldn’t even decide whether Campbell or Davis was better, much less whether they should be in the Top 100.  Clemson was really, really good in 1990, and it’s too bad they got nipped by the UConn buzzer beater.  But it spared them the pain of getting beaten by Duke in the regional final.

Chris Corchiani, NC State, 1988-1991

Maybe voting with my heart more than my head here, since Corchiani never made first team All-ACC.  But he was a great floor general and was the NCAA all-time assist leader until #35 Bobby Hurley surpassed his total (in ~700 more career minutes).  Second in ACC career assists and third in steals.  Remember that thing he used to do if a defender was pressuring him as he brought it up the court?  He would accelerate to get past the defender, then when the defender started running to catch up, Corchiani would suddenly put on the brakes.  The defender wouldn’t be able to stop quickly enough and would wind up on Corchiani’s back and get called for a foul.  Never seen that move from anyone else.

Travis Best, Georgia Tech, 1992-1995

Travis Best, along with Tree Rollins and Buck Williams, is one of the best players never to make first team All-ACC.  He finished sixth in 1994, three points behind #28 Joe Smith; and he finished sixth again in 1995, this time seven points behind Rasheed Wallace.  He is one of only four players in ACC history with 2000 points and 600 assists (the others are #6 Phil Ford, #61 Greivis Vasquez, and #18 Jason Williams).

Chris Carrawell, Duke, 1997-2000

Carrawell really had just the one year, and even that year I think he was a bit overrated.  It was one of those “best player on the best team” situations.  Except he wasn’t really the best player, #14 Shane Battier was.  But, he did run away with ACC Player of the Year and was first or second-team All-American.  Starter on the awesome 1999 team that lost to UConn in the championship game.  Duke’s five starters all finished in the top 12 in All-ACC balloting.

Ed Cota, UNC, 1997-2000; Lonny Baxter, Maryland, 1999-2002

Ed Cota and Lonny Baxter are similar players, not in their playing styles of course, but in terms of the trajectory of their careers.  Both were very good as freshmen and played key roles for their entire four-year careers; both made All-ACC three times; both players plateaued as very good but not great players; and both players had some NCAA Tournament success.  Cota played on three Final Four teams; Baxter was of course a key contributor to the 2002 national championship team.  Cota was essentially the same player – the same very good player – for his entire career.

Justin Gray, Wake Forest, 2003-2006

One of the outstanding three-point shooters in league history, Gray ranks eighth in career three-point field goals made. He is in the top 60 in career points scored and made first team All-ACC as a sophomore, but as a junior he was overshadowed by teammate Chris Paul and fell to second team. Then as a senior, the Deacons simply fell apart once ACC play started, finishing 3-13 in the league, and despite excellent individual stats, Gray was relegated to second team again.

Jared Dudley, Boston College, 2004-2007

Had his first two years not been in the Big East, Dudley would probably be in the Top 100.  ACC Player of the Year and second team All-American in 2007.  He was first team All-Big East in 2005.

Al Thornton, Florida State, 2004-2007

Thornton was a bit player his first two years, but he emerged as a junior and had a terrific senior year, finishing a close runner-up to Jared Dudley for ACC Player of the Year and making third team All-American.

Sean Singletary, Virginia, 2005-2008; Tyrese Rice, Boston College, 2006-2009; Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech, 2008-2011

Singletary, Rice, and Delaney are similar cases.  They played during more or less the same era; each scored over 2,000 career points; each made All-ACC a lot; each played on mediocre teams; none received serious consideration for ACC Player of the Year or national honors.  Singletary probably has the best case; he did play on a pretty good Virginia team in 2007, and he received 12 votes for ACC Player of the Year that year.  He is the only player to make first team All-ACC three times who isn’t on my list.  If I had it to do over again, I would probably find a spot for him.

Jack McClinton, Miami, 2007-2009

A two-time first team All-ACC performer who is one of the great shooters in league history. Second to JJ Redick in career free-throw percentage; second to Bo Outlaw in career three-point percentage, but at a much higher volume.

Trevor Booker, Clemson, 2007-2010

A personal favorite of mine.  Five ACC players have 1700 points, 1000 rebounds, and 200 blocks: #2 Ralph Sampson, #15 Sam Perkins, #4 Tim Duncan, #40 Shelden Williams – and Booker.  He played on the best stretch of basketball teams in Clemson history, the four-year run from 2008-2011 when the Tigers had winning records in the ACC and made the NCAA Tournament each year.  All three of the Booker teams (2008, 2009, 2010) lost in the first round.

Jerian Grant, Notre Dame, 2012-2015

Similar case to Jared Dudley.  Grant played his first two years in the Big East and was second team All-Big East as a sophomore.  As a senior, lost out on ACC Player of the Year to Jahlil Okafor, but was MOP of the ACC Tournament as the Irish took the title.  Came within a hair’s breadth of beating 37-0 Kentucky in the regional final and making Notre Dame’s first Final Four since 1978.  Missed most of the 2014 season with an injury which may have kept him off the list, as he was playing at a very high level.

Brice Johnson, UNC, 2013-2016

Similar to Carrawell in that Johnson really just had the one year, but it was some year.  He finished runner-up to #52 Malcolm Brogdon for ACC Player of the Year and was a first team All-American.  He was the MOP of the South Region for a UNC team that came tantalizingly close to winning it all.

Kyle Guy, Virginia, 2017-2019

Kyle Guy was #100 when I first published the top 100 list. Since then, I’ve changed my mind and moved him into honorable mention. His main argument is that he was MOP of the ACC Tournament (2018) and the NCAA Tournament (2019).  The only other players to win both those honors are Art Heyman, James Worthy, Christian Laettner, Shane Battier, and Kyle Singler. But honestly, Guy did not have a great NCAA Tournament in 2019. This was not a Sean May 2005, David Thompson 1974, Juan Dixon 2002, Christian Laettner 1991-type performance. He was money in the final which is why he won the award. Guy did make first team All-ACC twice, but both times he was the 5th-leading vote getter and finished behind a number of other guys who aren’t anywhere close to this list.  It’s not enough.

1. David Thompson, NC State, 1973-1975

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

I still think David Thompson is the greatest player ever in college basketball. David was the queen on the chessboard. He could go everywhere: inside, outside, rebounding. His impact was felt all over the floor. He changed the game. Everyone from then on wanted to be a Skywalker. – Len Elmore, quoted in Legends of NC State Basketball by Tim Peeler

David Thompson is the best player in ACC basketball history.  That’s not a controversial conclusion, but is it unassailable?  Who else has an argument? 

I’d say Sampson has an argument, and… that’s it.  Laettner is my number three, and even if you give him every possible advantage, I don’t see a line of reasoning that leads to the conclusion that he was better than David Thompson.  As for Sampson, he was consensus national Player of the Year three times compared to once for Thompson.  So why does Thompson rate ahead?  It comes down to three things.

  1. The three vs. one thing is an oversimplification.  Sampson did not win all the awards in 1981.  Danny Ainge won the Wooden Award and the NABC Award, and Mark Aguirre won the Sporting News Award.  Even in Sampson’s senior year of 1983, Jordan won the Sporting News award.  So Sampson’s three is really more like 2.5.  Thompson, in addition to his sweep of the 1975 awards, also won the AP award in 1974, while Bill Walton won the others.  So Thompson’s one is really more like 1.5.
  2. Competition for the awards.  Sampson was competing with Danny Ainge, Terry Cummings, Mark Aguirre, James Worthy, and sophomore Michael Jordan.  Thompson was competing with Bill Walton, generally considered to be one of the five best college basketball players of all time. 
  3. Tournament play.  Thompson had one of the all-time great NCAA Tournament performances in 1974, dethroning UCLA and leading the Wolfpack to a national championship.  Sampson’s tournament history was characterized mostly by frustration and missed opportunity.

I’ve mentioned a couple of times the ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia that I have from 2008.  DT is the top-ranked ACC player in their listing of the 50 greatest college basketball players.  The full list of ACC players is:

#8, David Thompson

#13, Christian Laettner

#16, Ralph Sampson

#17, Michael Jordan

#18, Tim Duncan

#27, Phil Ford

#33, Grant Hill

#45, Art Heyman

#46, Len Bias

#47, John Lucas

All of these are reasonable selections except for Hill and Lucas, who have no business in the Top 50 in my opinion.  But back to Thompson.  The seven players listed in front of him are:

#1, Lew Alcindor/Kareem

#2, Oscar Robertson

#3, Bill Russell

#4, Bill Walton

#5, Pete Maravich

#6, Jerry West

#7, Bill Bradley

I’m not going to tread on sacred ground by arguing that Thompson was better than Alcindor, Robertson, or Russell.  But the comparison with Walton is interesting, because they were contemporaries and collided so memorably in 1974.  Looking at the record, it’s not obvious that Bill Walton was a better player than David Thompson.  Their careers coincided, but not perfectly; Walton played 1972-74, while Thompson was 1973-75.  One way to look at it is this.  Each of them played one year without the other – 1972 for Walton, 1975 for Thompson.  Each ran away with National Player of the Year honors in that year.  If we call that a wash, then it comes down to 1973 and 1974.

In 1973, the edge clearly goes to Walton.  He was national player of the year in a landslide, and he had probably the greatest championship game of all time with 44 points on 21-for-22 shooting against Memphis to cap a 30-0 season.  Thompson was a first team All-American but not a serious challenger for player of the year.  However, I do think there are some mitigating factors.  Walton had been national POY the season before, and he played for a program that had won six straight national championships and went 175-5 over those seasons.  It’s impossible to overstate the amount of momentum there was for Walton to win that award again, assuming the Bruins were successful, which they were.  Thompson was certainly known by reputation, but he had never played a varsity game before that season.  Considering the circumstances, I doubt it was possible for Thompson to have won over Walton.  He averaged 25 points and 8 rebounds on 57% from the floor and 82% from the line and was named ACC Player of the Year for a team that went undefeated.  What else could he have done? If he had averaged 35 instead of 25, would he have beaten Walton?  I doubt it.  So while I do think we have to give Walton an edge, I don’t think it’s as much of an edge as the voting totals would imply.

In 1974, I say the edge goes to Thompson.  It starts with the fact that NC State won on the floor.  NC State slew the dragon and stopped UCLA’s run of seven straight championships. Thompson led the way and was named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player.  The voters for national honors started to recognize Thompson’s greatness.  It’s interesting to contrast the AP and the UPI player of the year balloting.  The UPI was announced in early March, which means the votes were taken before the end of the regular season.  Walton won easily.  But the AP vote was announced on April 2, after the NCAA Tournament.  Thompson won by 43 votes.  So the best vote we have, from the most credible organization, and the one that accounts for the entire season, went to Thompson.  Walton had won national POY in a landslide the previous two years.  He was already considered one of the greatest college players of all time.  Consider how easy it would have been for the voters to simply vote for him again and the excellence required for someone to overcome that.  Only another all-time great could do it.  That’s David Thompson.

The one disappointment of Thompson’s career was how it ended.  NC State, Maryland, and North Carolina were three of the best teams in the country in 1975.  After getting swept by Maryland in the regular season, the Wolfpack snuck by them in the ACC Tournament semifinals.  Thompson scored 30 points in the first 30 minutes but then cramped up and was unable to finish the game. How much the injury carried over to the final is hard to say, but he had a subpar performance as Carolina pulled out a 70-66 win.  This was the first year that the ACC got an at-large team into the NCAA Tournament, but the powers that be selected Maryland instead of the Wolfpack, and Thompson’s career was over.