ACC Tournament Outlook – 2/23

I spent some time today looking at the ACC standings and thinking about how the tournament might play out. With 2-3 regular season games left for each team, a lot could still happen, but we can start to play out some scenarios. There are natural groupings in the current standings: the Top 6; 7-9; 10; 11-12; and 13-15.

Recall the format of the tournament. Seeds 10-15 have to play the dreaded Tuesday games. At this point, it is certain that Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Louisville will be playing, and all but certain that Virginia Tech and Florida State will be joining them. It’s likely that BC will be the 10 seed, but you cannot rule out them moving up to the 9 if they can win their last two games.

Seeds 5-9 make their first appearances on Wednesday. The current group of 9-8 teams, UNC, Syracuse, and Wake, will be in this group, unless BC bumps one of them. The 5 and 6 teams are NC State and Duke right now, but that could change. The most likely team to fall from the top 4 into this range is Clemson. The Tigers have tough road games left at NC State and at Virginia. If they lose both, they will likely find themselves as a 5 or 6 seed.

The top four seeds get the treasured double bye and don’t have to play until Thursday. It is certain that these teams will come from the current Top 6. The number one seed is very likely to be Miami. Their schedule is favorable to finish 16-4, and they have the tiebreaker over Virginia. Pitt has a chance if they can win out, which would include winning at Miami, which would give them a season sweep of the Hurricanes. There are also scenarios where Clemson winds up as the 1 seed if they win out and get some help. Virginia in general does not win tiebreaker scenarios, so the only way they wind up as the 1 is if they win out and finish first outright.

I don’t think it’s possible for State or Duke to be the 1 seed. Each of them could finish in a first place tie if they win out and Miami loses two games and a bunch of other things happen that aren’t going to happen. But even if they all do happen, State and Duke don’t win the tiebreakers that I can see.

Thinking about what would be the best seed for State, two things come to mind. One, you’d like to avoid Miami and Duke for as long as possible. The most difficult road would be Duke in the 4/5 game in the quarterfinals, then #1 Miami in the semis. And that’s entirely possible. You’d almost rather be the 6 seed, where it’s more likely that you would play Pitt and/or UVa in the quarters and semis. Of course you want to win every game, but Wolfpack fans shouldn’t be too disappointed if NC State beats Clemson, loses to Duke, and winds up as the 6. Although a downside to that is, you might wind up playing Virginia Tech, the scariest of the 10-15 teams, on Wednesday.

The second thing to think about is, State is the odd team out on the last weekend of the regular season. Their last regular season game is actually Tuesday against Duke. So by the time the tournament comes around, they won’t have played for over a week. That’s where I think the double bye could work against them. I’d rather be the 5 or 6 seed and get a Wednesday “warm-up” game than to get the 4 seed, in which case their first game in nine days would be a quarterfinal against a really good team, probably Duke.

What about Carolina? As everyone knows, they need Quad I wins. Who do they need to play to get them? On a neutral court, that’s Miami, Virginia, NC State, and Duke. That’s who they need to beat to improve their tournament resume. They’ll have to win a Wednesday game in order to get the chance, and even then, they could end up matched with Pitt or Clemson in the quarters. Between their remaining regular season games against Virginia and Duke and the tournament, I think they need two Quad I wins to get in.

Miami certainly seems like the favorite, with Duke and NC State being the trendy picks for “teams nobody wants to play right now”. But I don’t know that I can recall a more wide open tournament. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see any of the current top 9 teams win it.

How UNC Can Make the College Football Playoff

The Tar Heels currently sit at number 15 in the CFP rankings. According to fivethirtyeight.com, they have a 6% chance to make the college football playoff. So what has to happen for the Tar Heels to leapfrog 11 teams and get into the top four?

First things first. They have to win out, and that includes the ACC championship over Clemson. Clemson is one of the teams in front of them. So that’s one team passed.

Also, I think just by winning out, the Tar Heels will leapfrog Penn State. I don’t see the committee putting two-loss Penn State in the CFP over one-loss, ACC champion Carolina. That’s two teams passed.

Then there are head-to-head matchups of two teams ahead of UNC where somebody has to lose, and the loser is likely to fall behind the Tar Heels. USC-UCLA, Oregon-Utah, and Alabama-Ole Miss fall into that category. That’s five teams passed. We’ve gotten the Tar Heels up to number 10.

LSU needs to lose a game. If it doesn’t happen against Arkansas or Texas A&M, Georgia will see to it in the SEC championship. That’s six teams passed.

So let’s review where we are. We’ve gotten the Tar Heels up to number 9. The eight teams in front of them are Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, TCU, the Oregon-Utah winner, the USC-UCLA winner, and the Alabama-Ole Miss winner. Who else can the Tar Heels leapfrog?

Let’s start with TCU. The Horned Frogs still have to play at Texas, at Baylor, Iowa State at home, and probably the Big 12 Championship. Fivethirtyeight gives TCU only a 10% chance to win out. Now the question is, is one TCU loss enough for UNC to pass them? It’s hard to say, and I’m not sure what the committee would do in that situation. It might depend on which game they lose. If TCU loses one regular season game but still wins the Big 12 Championship, I think they would still be ahead of the Tar Heels. The only safe bet for UNC is for TCU to lose two games. The good news is, with TCU’s remaining schedule, there’s a pretty good chance of that happening. So count TCU as a team the Tar Heels would have a decent chance of passing.

Then there’s the Pac-12. We’ve already noted that two of the four teams ahead of the Tar Heels are guaranteed to lose due to head-to-head matchups. But there are lots more opportunities for Pac-12 teams to lose. USC still has to play Notre Dame. Oregon, in addition to their game with Utah, still has to play Washington and at Oregon State. And then there’s the Pac-12 championship game. According to fivethirtyeight, Oregon has an 80% chance of losing at least one more game, USC 85%, UCLA 84%, and Utah 73%.

Other than all four Pac-12 teams losing, the best case scenario for the Tar Heels would probably be for Utah to win out and then to beat the USC-UCLA winner in the Pac-12 championship. This would mean at least one more loss for Oregon, USC, and UCLA. It’s not certain that two-loss Utah would remain ahead of one-loss UNC in the CFP standings.

The Pac-12 picture is complex, but suffice it to say that there is a good chance that the Tar Heels could pass all four.

Then there is the Alabama-Ole Miss winner. If it’s Ole Miss, they still have two more tough games remaining, at Arkansas and Mississippi State. The Rebels have only a 10% chance to win out according to fivethirtyeight. The other issue is that it’s unlikely that the Alabama-Ole Miss winner will play in the SEC Championship game. Will the committee put an SEC team that didn’t win its division in the playoff over one-loss ACC Champion Carolina? I don’t think so, although a one-loss Ole Miss team vs. one-loss UNC would be a tough call.

So now we’ve come up with plausible scenarios where the Tar Heels leapfrog everyone but Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and Tennessee. Which of those four teams is leap-able?

Georgia… I don’t see that happening. They would have to lose two games, and they aren’t going to.

Tennessee still has a game at South Carolina. I don’t think they’ll lose, but it’s possible.

That brings us to Ohio State and Michigan. Obviously, they still have to play each other. So the first question is, could Carolina jump over the loser of that game? If it’s Ohio State, I say no. If it’s Michigan… I still don’t think so, unless the Buckeyes blow them out. That would be an interesting committee decision, to decide between a one-loss Big 10 team that didn’t win its division and one-loss ACC champion UNC. My guess is the Big 10 team would get the nod.

So I think the Tar Heels are going to need an upset. They need either Tennessee to lose another game, or for Ohio State or Michigan to lose another game besides their head-to-head matchup. Ohio State has a game at Maryland, Michigan has a game against Illinois, and of course there’s the Big 10 Championship.

How likely is all of this? Well, the good news for Tar Heel fans is that while UNC has but a 6% chance of making the CFP overall, that probability goes up to 51% if they win out. The teams they have to leapfrog have a lot of tough games left and most of them are going to lose one along the way. Based on the scenarios above, I can easily see the Tar Heels getting to number 5 if they win out. But passing one of the current top four is going to require an upset and is a bit of a stretch.

Armando Bacot

Since I recently finished my series on the ACC’s 100 greatest players, I’ve been thinking about Armando Bacot and where he might fit into that group eventually. Bacot has a chance to do some amazing things. Let’s start with this. Last season, Bacot became the first ACC player in 66 years to grab 500 rebounds.

ACC 500 Rebound Seasons:

  • Dickie Hemric, 1955, 515
  • Ronnie Shavlik, 1955, 581
  • Ronnie Shavlik, 1956, 545
  • Armando Bacot, 2022, 511

Bacot needs 498 rebounds this season to become the fifth player in ACC history to have 1500 career rebounds.

ACC Career Rebound Leaders:

  • Hemric, 1802 (partially in Southern Conference)
  • Tim Duncan, 1570
  • Shavlik, 1567 (in 3 years)
  • Ralph Sampson, 1511

Bacot also has a chance to become the ACC’s 43rd 2000 point scorer. He needs 699 points. For reference, he had 635 last year. So it could happen. He needs one more bucket per game than he had last year.

Let’s play out the best-case scenario. Let’s say Bacot is National Player of the Year, ACC Player of the Year, and gets to 2000 career points and 1500 career rebounds – none of which is farfetched. Where would he rank in the Top 100? I think he’d be in the 20s, somewhere around Mark Price and Shavlik, in that range. If the Tar Heels could win the national championship, also not farfetched, maybe he could sneak into the teens, into Mike Gminski territory.

If Bacot is ACC Player of the Year and first team All-America, even if he doesn’t do all those other things, he’s probably a Top 50 player, similar to a Shelden Williams.

It hurts Bacot a bit that he didn’t win ACC Player of the Year last year. With all due respect to Alondes Williams, I think that vote was questionable.

When is the last time that an ACC player as good as Bacot came back for another year? I think you have to go back to Tyler Hansbrough in 2009. Hansbrough’s play slipped a little bit in his senior year, but he still had a great year, and the Tar Heels won the national championship. We’ll see how things play out for Bacot.

ACC Bowl Outlook 11/6

I’ve never done an ACC football post before, but today seems like a good day to do it. With three weeks to go, the ACC’s bowl prospects are starting to become at least a little bit clearer.

It’s not that easy to find concrete information on how bowl teams are selected. Most fans know that you have to win six games against FCS opponents in order to qualify. Except when you don’t; 5-7 teams can qualify if there aren’t enough six-win teams to fill the docket.

Some conferences have a clear pecking order among the bowls, but the ACC does not. There are Tier One bowls and Tier Two bowls, but within those groupings, it seems that specific selections are made in a smoke-filled room.

But one thing is very clear: the ACC champion goes to the Orange Bowl, unless that team makes the CFP, in which case the next highest-ranked team goes to the Orange Bowl. That has come into play in past years with Clemson making the CFP, but it almost certainly will not this year. It is difficult to imagine Clemson or UNC making the CFP this year. So I’m going to simplify things by saying that the ACC champion will be in the Orange Bowl.

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic division and a spot in the ACC championship game. UNC is very close; one more win would clinch the division, and even if UNC were to lose out, they could still make it with some help.

At this point, the ACC has eight bowl-eligible teams (Clemson, NC State, Syracuse, Louisville, FSU, Wake Forest, UNC, and Duke), with Pitt very likely to be a ninth. And there’s a good chance that will be it; I assess Miami’s chances of becoming bowl-eligible at 29%, Georgia Tech’s at 11%, and Virginia’s at 10%.

So most likely, the ACC will have nine bowl eligible teams. Then there’s Notre Dame. As a quasi-independent, Notre Dame’s relationship with the bowls is complicated, but because the Irish have three losses, it’s a little easier this year. Basically, they will take one of the ACC’s Tier One bowl slots. I guess you can’t completely rule out a 9-3 Notre Dame team getting into a New Year’s Six bowl, but that would require them winning at USC, and even then I’m not sure they’d make it.

So let’s summarize. The ACC will probably have nine bowl-eligible teams, plus Notre Dame. There are eight Tier One bowls, plus the Orange Bowl, and three Tier Two bowls. To complicate matters, the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Outback Bowl) is traditionally a Big Ten – SEC matchup, but if the Orange Bowl selects a Big Ten team instead of an SEC team to play against the ACC team, then the ACC gets that slot in the ReliaQuest Bowl, which becomes a ninth Tier One Bowl. Here is the rundown in list form:

ACC Champion goes to the Orange Bowl (if not selected for CFP)

Tier One Bowls:

  • Cheez-It Bowl – Orlando
  • Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Charlotte
  • Fenway Bowl – Fenway Park
  • Military Bowl – Annapolis, MD
  • New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Yankee Stadium
  • ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl (only if Big Ten is selected for Orange Bowl) – Tampa
  • Holiday Bowl – San Diego
  • Gator Bowl – Jacksonville
  • Sun Bowl – El Paso, TX

Tier Two Bowls:

  • Gasparilla Bowl – Tampa
  • Birmingham Bowl – Birmingham
  • First Responder Bowl – Dallas

Right now, it seems unlikely that the ACC will get a team into the ReliaQuest Bowl. That probably comes down to Penn State or Illinois being selected for the Orange Bowl over Alabama or Ole Miss. The only chance I see of that happening is if Alabama and Ole Miss both lose another game. Even then I’m not sure. ACC fans should be pulling for this scenario. Best chance would probably be Ole Miss beating Alabama then losing to Mississippi State.

Assuming for the moment that the ACC doesn’t get a spot in the CFP or the ReliaQuest, here’s how I see it playing out, team by team, for the teams that are still relevant.

Clemson

Games Remaining: vs. Louisville, vs. Miami, vs. South Carolina

Possible Records: 11-1 (41% chance), 10-2 (44%), 9-3 (14%), 8-4 (1%)

Bowl Possibilities: As mentioned earlier, it’s hard for me to see Clemson making the CFP, even if they win out. They would need a lot of help. And I give them only about a 25% chance of winning out, including the championship. If the Tigers do win the ACC title, they’ll head to the Orange Bowl. If they lose the title game, it could get interesting. The Cheez-It Bowl would be the obvious choice, but they played there last year. My guess is they would wind up going to the Gator Bowl.

Duke

Games Remaining: vs. Virginia Tech, at Pitt, vs. Wake Forest

Possible Records: 9-3 (8%), 8-4 (34%), 7-5 (43%), 6-6 (15%)

Bowl Possibilities: Duke seems like a good fit for the Pinstripe Bowl (although the Pinstripe may go for Syracuse). The Military and Fenway Bowls are also possibilities. The Blue Devils can still win the Coastal Division if they win out and UNC loses out; I’d give that about a 1% chance of happening.

Florida State

Games Remaining: at Syracuse, Louisiana, Florida

Possible Records: 9-3 (20%), 8-4 (44%), 7-5 (30%), 6-6 (6%)

Bowl Possibilities: Florida State is an attractive team. If they could win out, it’s possible the Gator Bowl would pick them over Notre Dame. Otherwise, they’re probably headed to the Sun Bowl, Holiday Bowl, or Military Bowl. They could be a candidate for Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte if NC State doesn’t go there for whatever reason.

Georgia Tech

Games Remaining: vs. Miami, at UNC, at Georgia

Possible Records: 7-5 (<1%), 6-6 (11%), 5-7 (47%), 4-8 (43%)

Bowl Possibilities: probably not gonna happen. Tier Two bowl if they sneak in.

Louisville

Games Remaining: at Clemson, vs. NC State, at Kentucky

Possible Records: 9-3 (10%), 8-4 (36%), 7-5 (41%), 6-6 (14%)

Bowl Possibilities: The Cardinals have a similar profile to Florida State and will likely be competing with the Seminoles for the same bowls (Sun, Holiday, Military). They have a tough schedule remaining, however, and will be hard-pressed to do better than 7-5. I’d give them a little higher probability than the Seminoles of dropping to the Military Bowl.

Miami

Games Remaining: at Georgia Tech, at Clemson, vs. Pitt

Possible Records: 7-5 (3%), 6-6 (26%), 5-7 (48%), 4-8 (23%)

Bowl Possibilities: I don’t think it’s going to happen because the ‘Canes are terrible. If they do manage to make it to 6-6, they’ll be relegated to one of the Tier 2 bowls, maybe the Gasparilla.

NC State

Games Remaining: vs. Boston College, at Louisville, at UNC

Possible Records: 10-2 (15%), 9-3 (45%), 8-4 (35%), 7-5 (5%)

Bowl Possibilities: If the Wolfpack could win out, they would probably force their way into either the Gator or Cheez-It Bowl, although they’ve been to the Gator Bowl quite a lot recently. Otherwise, they probably wind up in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte. I don’t see them going back to the Holiday Bowl after last year’s fiasco. The Sun Bowl is a possibility.

North Carolina

Games Remaining: at Wake Forest, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. NC State

Possible Records: 11-1 (18%), 10-2 (44%), 9-3 (32%), 8-4 (6%)

Bowl Possibilities: If UNC wins the ACC, they’ll go to the Orange Bowl. If they lose, they’ll probably go to the Cheez-It Bowl. Things would get interesting if UNC finishes 9-4; in that scenario, they could fall farther to a Sun or Holiday.

Notre Dame

Games Remaining: at Navy, vs. Boston College, at USC

Possible Records: 9-3 (43%), 8-4 (47%), 7-5 (9%), 6-6 (<1%)

Bowl Possibilities: 9-3 Notre Dame would be very attractive, and you wonder if they could even squeeze into a New Year’s six bowl, considering that would involve winning at USC in their last game. It stinks for the ACC, but even 8-4 Notre Dame would likely get a Cheez-It or Gator Bowl slot over an ACC team.

Pitt

Games Remaining: at Virginia, vs. Duke, at Miami

Possible Records: 8-4 (27%), 7-5 (44%), 6-6 (25%), 5-7 (4%)

Bowl Possibilities: Pitt has the easiest remaining schedule of any team listed here. But I’m not sure how much it matters for their bowl prospects. They seem likely to go to one of the northern bowls: Military, Fenway, or Pinstripe. Pitt could also fall to the second tier, especially if they don’t win out.

Syracuse

Games Remaining: vs. Florida State, at Wake Forest, at Boston College

Possible Records: 9-3 (14%), 8-4 (41%), 7-5 (36%), 6-6 (8%)

Bowl Possibilities: The Orange are reeling after losing three straight, and it doesn’t get any easier with FSU and Wake the next two weeks. They seem like a good bet for the Fenway or Pinstripe Bowls. They are one of the teams that could fall to the second tier.

Virginia

Games Remaining: vs. Pitt, vs. Coastal Carolina, at Virginia Tech

Possible Records: 6-6 (10%), 5-7 (35%), 4-8 (40%), 3-9 (15%)

Bowl Possibilities: The Cavaliers have a faint pulse. If they can win out, they’ll wind up in a Tier Two bowl.

Wake Forest

Games Remaining: vs. UNC, vs. Syracuse, at Duke

Possible Records: 9-3 (19%), 8-4 (42%), 7-5 (31%), 6-6 (8%)

Bowl Possibilities: Wake could go in a lot of directions. A good case can be made for winning or losing each of their last three games. A 9-3 or 8-4 Wake team probably winds up in the Holiday or Sun Bowl. A 7-5 or 6-6 Wake team, which would mean a losing record in the ACC, is more likely to fall to Military, Fenway, or even a Tier Two.

Honorable Mention

As a way of wrapping up this series, I thought it would be good to make a list of other players who received serious consideration for the Top 100.  If you took my last 25 players and replaced them with some of these guys, you wouldn’t be losing much.  I list them in chronological order.

Joe Belmont, Duke, 1954-1956; Ronnie Mayer, Duke, 1954-1956; Lefty Davis, Wake Forest, 1954-1956

Belmont, Mayer, Davis, and #99 Vic Molodet of NC State formed a quartet of players who all played from 1954-1956 and are very difficult to distinguish.  In terms of career All-ACC balloting, Mayer received 452 points, Molodet 434, Belmont 401, Davis 385. 

Tommy Kearns, UNC, 1956-1958

Kearns and #74 Pete Brennan were the key players supporting #17 Lennie Rosenbluth on the 1957 championship team.  In 1958, without Rosenbluth, Kearns made first team All-ACC, but Brennan was ACC Player of the Year.

Doug Moe, UNC, 1959-1961

I had Moe on my list for a while but eventually took him off.  He was academically ineligible in the fall of 1959 and missed over half the Tar Heels’ games.  That probably kept him from being a three-time first-team All-ACC player and cost him a spot on the list.

Coach Bill Strannigan of Wyoming says he has seen only one basketball player better than North Carolina’s Doug Moe, 6-foot-6 senior.  “He was Wilt Chamberlain when he played for Kansas,” says Strannigan.  – The York Dispatch, York, PA, February 28, 1961

Bob Leonard, Wake Forest, 1964-1966

A prolific scorer who arrived just after the glory years of Chappell and Packer. Two-time first team All-ACC and two-time first team All-Tournament. He is the only player with the particular collection of honors who is not in the Top 100.

Eddie Biedenbach, NC State, 1965-1968

Two-time first team All-ACC player who was recruited by Everett Case, played two years for Press Maravich after Case resigned, missed a year with an injury, then played his last year for Norm Sloan.

Tom Owens, South Carolina, 1969-1971; Randy Denton, Duke, 1969-1971

Owens and Denton are similar players who played at the same time.  They finished first and second in rebounds per game all three seasons.  Owens finished his career with 444 All-ACC points; Denton had 442.  Owens was also an outstanding ACC Tournament performer, making first team All-Tournament twice.

Tate Armstrong, Duke, 1974-1977

A sharpshooting Texan, Armstrong was a tremendous scorer who didn’t have any help for most of his career. Then, once help arrived in the form of Spanarkel and Gminski, he went and broke his wrist and missed the second half of his senior year. He probably would have led the league in scoring and made first team All-ACC for the second time. That 1977 Duke team was sneaky good and a keen observer might have perceived that some magic was in the air in 1978.

Walter Davis, UNC, 1974-1977

“Sweet D” was a tremendous player who played at the same time as Kenny Carr, Skip Brown, and Tree Rollins. Overall he seems just behind them in terms of his accomplishments. He is perhaps another player who was held back a bit by playing for Dean Smith; when he got to the NBA, he was immediately one of the best players in the league.

Buck Williams, Maryland, 1979-1981

Williams was named to the 2003 list of the ACC’s 50 greatest players.  I don’t see how you name someone who never made first team All-ACC to the Top 50, but he was very good.

Othell Wilson, Virginia, 1981-1984

Wilson was the other guy on the #2 Ralph Sampson powerhouse Virginia teams.  His injury in 1982 may have cost the Cavaliers a chance to go to the Final Four that year.  But Wilson was a starter on two other Final Four teams (1981 and 1984).  He was first team All-ACC as a sophomore and barely missed as a junior.

Elden Campbell, Clemson, 1987-1990; Dale Davis, Clemson, 1988-1991

I stared at these two for hours and ultimately gave up.  I couldn’t even decide whether Campbell or Davis was better, much less whether they should be in the Top 100.  Clemson was really, really good in 1990, and it’s too bad they got nipped by the UConn buzzer beater.  But it spared them the pain of getting beaten by Duke in the regional final.

Chris Corchiani, NC State, 1988-1991

Maybe voting with my heart more than my head here, since Corchiani never made first team All-ACC.  But he was a great floor general and was the NCAA all-time assist leader until #35 Bobby Hurley surpassed his total (in ~700 more career minutes).  Second in ACC career assists and third in steals.  Remember that thing he used to do if a defender was pressuring him as he brought it up the court?  He would accelerate to get past the defender, then when the defender started running to catch up, Corchiani would suddenly put on the brakes.  The defender wouldn’t be able to stop quickly enough and would wind up on Corchiani’s back and get called for a foul.  Never seen that move from anyone else.

Travis Best, Georgia Tech, 1992-1995

Travis Best, along with Tree Rollins and Buck Williams, is one of the best players never to make first team All-ACC.  He finished sixth in 1994, three points behind #28 Joe Smith; and he finished sixth again in 1995, this time seven points behind Rasheed Wallace.  He is one of only four players in ACC history with 2000 points and 600 assists (the others are #6 Phil Ford, #61 Greivis Vasquez, and #18 Jason Williams).

Chris Carrawell, Duke, 1997-2000

Carrawell really had just the one year, and even that year I think he was a bit overrated.  It was one of those “best player on the best team” situations.  Except he wasn’t really the best player, #14 Shane Battier was.  But, he did run away with ACC Player of the Year and was first or second-team All-American.  Starter on the awesome 1999 team that lost to UConn in the championship game.  Duke’s five starters all finished in the top 12 in All-ACC balloting.

Ed Cota, UNC, 1997-2000; Lonny Baxter, Maryland, 1999-2002

Ed Cota and Lonny Baxter are similar players, not in their playing styles of course, but in terms of the trajectory of their careers.  Both were very good as freshmen and played key roles for their entire four-year careers; both made All-ACC three times; both players plateaued as very good but not great players; and both players had some NCAA Tournament success.  Cota played on three Final Four teams; Baxter was of course a key contributor to the 2002 national championship team.  Cota was essentially the same player – the same very good player – for his entire career.

Justin Gray, Wake Forest, 2003-2006

One of the outstanding three-point shooters in league history, Gray ranks eighth in career three-point field goals made. He is in the top 60 in career points scored and made first team All-ACC as a sophomore, but as a junior he was overshadowed by teammate Chris Paul and fell to second team. Then as a senior, the Deacons simply fell apart once ACC play started, finishing 3-13 in the league, and despite excellent individual stats, Gray was relegated to second team again.

Jared Dudley, Boston College, 2004-2007

Had his first two years not been in the Big East, Dudley would probably be in the Top 100.  ACC Player of the Year and second team All-American in 2007.  He was first team All-Big East in 2005.

Al Thornton, Florida State, 2004-2007

Thornton was a bit player his first two years, but he emerged as a junior and had a terrific senior year, finishing a close runner-up to Jared Dudley for ACC Player of the Year and making third team All-American.

Sean Singletary, Virginia, 2005-2008; Tyrese Rice, Boston College, 2006-2009; Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech, 2008-2011

Singletary, Rice, and Delaney are similar cases.  They played during more or less the same era; each scored over 2,000 career points; each made All-ACC a lot; each played on mediocre teams; none received serious consideration for ACC Player of the Year or national honors.  Singletary probably has the best case; he did play on a pretty good Virginia team in 2007, and he received 12 votes for ACC Player of the Year that year.  He is the only player to make first team All-ACC three times who isn’t on my list.  If I had it to do over again, I would probably find a spot for him.

Jack McClinton, Miami, 2007-2009

A two-time first team All-ACC performer who is one of the great shooters in league history. Second to JJ Redick in career free-throw percentage; second to Bo Outlaw in career three-point percentage, but at a much higher volume.

Trevor Booker, Clemson, 2007-2010

A personal favorite of mine.  Five ACC players have 1700 points, 1000 rebounds, and 200 blocks: #2 Ralph Sampson, #15 Sam Perkins, #4 Tim Duncan, #40 Shelden Williams – and Booker.  He played on the best stretch of basketball teams in Clemson history, the four-year run from 2008-2011 when the Tigers had winning records in the ACC and made the NCAA Tournament each year.  All three of the Booker teams (2008, 2009, 2010) lost in the first round.

Jerian Grant, Notre Dame, 2012-2015

Similar case to Jared Dudley.  Grant played his first two years in the Big East and was second team All-Big East as a sophomore.  As a senior, lost out on ACC Player of the Year to Jahlil Okafor, but was MOP of the ACC Tournament as the Irish took the title.  Came within a hair’s breadth of beating 37-0 Kentucky in the regional final and making Notre Dame’s first Final Four since 1978.  Missed most of the 2014 season with an injury which may have kept him off the list, as he was playing at a very high level.

Brice Johnson, UNC, 2013-2016

Similar to Carrawell in that Johnson really just had the one year, but it was some year.  He finished runner-up to #52 Malcolm Brogdon for ACC Player of the Year and was a first team All-American.  He was the MOP of the South Region for a UNC team that came tantalizingly close to winning it all.

Kyle Guy, Virginia, 2017-2019

Kyle Guy was #100 when I first published the top 100 list. Since then, I’ve changed my mind and moved him into honorable mention. His main argument is that he was MOP of the ACC Tournament (2018) and the NCAA Tournament (2019).  The only other players to win both those honors are Art HeymanJames WorthyChristian LaettnerShane Battier, and Kyle Singler. But honestly, Guy did not have a great NCAA Tournament in 2019. This was not a Sean May 2005, David Thompson 1974, Juan Dixon 2002, Christian Laettner 1991-type performance. He was money in the final which is why he won the award. Guy did make first team All-ACC twice, but both times he was the 5th-leading vote getter and finished behind a number of other guys who aren’t anywhere close to this list.  It’s not enough.

1. David Thompson, NC State, 1973-1975

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

I still think David Thompson is the greatest player ever in college basketball. David was the queen on the chessboard. He could go everywhere: inside, outside, rebounding. His impact was felt all over the floor. He changed the game. Everyone from then on wanted to be a Skywalker. – Len Elmore, quoted in Legends of NC State Basketball by Tim Peeler

David Thompson is the best player in ACC basketball history.  That’s not a controversial conclusion, but is it unassailable?  Who else has an argument? 

I’d say Sampson has an argument, and… that’s it.  Laettner is my number three, and even if you give him every possible advantage, I don’t see a line of reasoning that leads to the conclusion that he was better than David Thompson.  As for Sampson, he was consensus national Player of the Year three times compared to once for Thompson.  So why does Thompson rate ahead?  It comes down to three things.

  1. The three vs. one thing is an oversimplification.  Sampson did not win all the awards in 1981.  Danny Ainge won the Wooden Award and the NABC Award, and Mark Aguirre won the Sporting News Award.  Even in Sampson’s senior year of 1983, Jordan won the Sporting News award.  So Sampson’s three is really more like 2.5.  Thompson, in addition to his sweep of the 1975 awards, also won the AP award in 1974, while Bill Walton won the others.  So Thompson’s one is really more like 1.5.
  2. Competition for the awards.  Sampson was competing with Danny Ainge, Terry Cummings, Mark Aguirre, James Worthy, and sophomore Michael Jordan.  Thompson was competing with Bill Walton, generally considered to be one of the five best college basketball players of all time. 
  3. Tournament play.  Thompson had one of the all-time great NCAA Tournament performances in 1974, dethroning UCLA and leading the Wolfpack to a national championship.  Sampson’s tournament history was characterized mostly by frustration and missed opportunity.

I’ve mentioned a couple of times the ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia that I have from 2008.  DT is the top-ranked ACC player in their listing of the 50 greatest college basketball players.  The full list of ACC players is:

#8, David Thompson

#13, Christian Laettner

#16, Ralph Sampson

#17, Michael Jordan

#18, Tim Duncan

#27, Phil Ford

#33, Grant Hill

#45, Art Heyman

#46, Len Bias

#47, John Lucas

All of these are reasonable selections except for Hill and Lucas, who have no business in the Top 50 in my opinion.  But back to Thompson.  The seven players listed in front of him are:

#1, Lew Alcindor/Kareem

#2, Oscar Robertson

#3, Bill Russell

#4, Bill Walton

#5, Pete Maravich

#6, Jerry West

#7, Bill Bradley

I’m not going to tread on sacred ground by arguing that Thompson was better than Alcindor, Robertson, or Russell.  But the comparison with Walton is interesting, because they were contemporaries and collided so memorably in 1974.  Looking at the record, it’s not obvious that Bill Walton was a better player than David Thompson.  Their careers coincided, but not perfectly; Walton played 1972-74, while Thompson was 1973-75.  One way to look at it is this.  Each of them played one year without the other – 1972 for Walton, 1975 for Thompson.  Each ran away with National Player of the Year honors in that year.  If we call that a wash, then it comes down to 1973 and 1974.

In 1973, the edge clearly goes to Walton.  He was national player of the year in a landslide, and he had probably the greatest championship game of all time with 44 points on 21-for-22 shooting against Memphis to cap a 30-0 season.  Thompson was a first team All-American but not a serious challenger for player of the year.  However, I do think there are some mitigating factors.  Walton had been national POY the season before, and he played for a program that had won six straight national championships and went 175-5 over those seasons.  It’s impossible to overstate the amount of momentum there was for Walton to win that award again, assuming the Bruins were successful, which they were.  Thompson was certainly known by reputation, but he had never played a varsity game before that season.  Considering the circumstances, I doubt it was possible for Thompson to have won over Walton.  He averaged 25 points and 8 rebounds on 57% from the floor and 82% from the line and was named ACC Player of the Year for a team that went undefeated.  What else could he have done? If he had averaged 35 instead of 25, would he have beaten Walton?  I doubt it.  So while I do think we have to give Walton an edge, I don’t think it’s as much of an edge as the voting totals would imply.

In 1974, I say the edge goes to Thompson.  It starts with the fact that NC State won on the floor.  NC State slew the dragon and stopped UCLA’s run of seven straight championships. Thompson led the way and was named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player.  The voters for national honors started to recognize Thompson’s greatness.  It’s interesting to contrast the AP and the UPI player of the year balloting.  The UPI was announced in early March, which means the votes were taken before the end of the regular season.  Walton won easily.  But the AP vote was announced on April 2, after the NCAA Tournament.  Thompson won by 43 votes.  So the best vote we have, from the most credible organization, and the one that accounts for the entire season, went to Thompson.  Walton had won national POY in a landslide the previous two years.  He was already considered one of the greatest college players of all time.  Consider how easy it would have been for the voters to simply vote for him again and the excellence required for someone to overcome that.  Only another all-time great could do it.  That’s David Thompson.

The one disappointment of Thompson’s career was how it ended.  NC State, Maryland, and North Carolina were three of the best teams in the country in 1975.  After getting swept by Maryland in the regular season, the Wolfpack snuck by them in the ACC Tournament semifinals.  Thompson scored 30 points in the first 30 minutes but then cramped up and was unable to finish the game. How much the injury carried over to the final is hard to say, but he had a subpar performance as Carolina pulled out a 70-66 win.  This was the first year that the ACC got an at-large team into the NCAA Tournament, but the powers that be selected Maryland instead of the Wolfpack, and Thompson’s career was over.

2. Ralph Sampson, Virginia, 1980-1983

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

Ralph Sampson arrived in Charlottesville in the fall of 1979.  At that time, Virginia had been in the ACC for 26 years, and what did they have to show for it?  Two winning records in conference play and one NCAA Tournament appearance with zero wins.  Of the 130 first team All-ACC performers between 1954 and 1979, only six were from UVa (Buzz Wilkinson twice, Herb Busch, Chip Conner, Barry Parkhill, Jeff Lamp).  Up to that point, UVa as a program was worse than Clemson, which is saying something.

But Terry Holland had something brewing.  He coached the Cavaliers to their first ACC Tournament title in 1976 behind Wally Walker.  The next year, the Cavaliers finished last in the regular season, then very nearly pulled off another tournament run before falling to Carolina in the final.  1978 marked the debut of Jeff Lamp, and Virginia started to climb the ACC standings.  So when Sampson arrived, there was already optimism around the program. 

Sampson had a great freshman year, but his impact on the team was not as much as might have been expected. The Cavaliers actually dropped from 8-6 in the league to 7-7.  You can see his impact reflected in their team statistics. Virginia went from a smallish team that played fast and relied on forcing turnovers to a slower-paced team with very good FG% defense and strong rebounding margin, but the turnover margin went in the wrong direction.  It seems that it took a year for them to figure out exactly how to play with Sampson and best utilize his skills.  Sampson averaged 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 4.6 blocks per game.  He easily outpointed Sidney Lowe for ACC Rookie of the Year.  (As an aside, his season total of 157 blocks would be tied for 20th most all-time in a season in NCAA Division I, but I guess they didn’t officially count blocks until some time later.)

For the next three years, Virginia was one of the best teams in the country, and Sampson was at the center, literally and figuratively.  In 1981, the Cavaliers started 22-0 and were ranked #1.  Sampson was a year older and a year better, Jeff Lamp was still doing his thing, and the addition of Othell Wilson improved the Cavaliers’ ballhandling and defense.  Virginia advanced to the Final Four where they lost to North Carolina behind Al Wood’s incredible 39-point performance.  It was a breakthrough year for the program.  The only blemish was an inexplicable blowout in the ACC Tournament semifinals at the hands of Maryland.  Sampson was named National Player of the Year over DePaul’s Mark Aguirre and BYU’s Danny Ainge by both the AP and UPI in votes that were competitive, but not close.

1982 followed a similar pattern.  Virginia started out 24-1 and was again ranked #1 in the country before losing at Maryland in the last game of the regular season.  North Carolina was neck-and-neck with the Cavaliers all year.  After splitting their regular season matchups, the Tar Heels eked out an ugly 47-45 win in the ACC Tournament final.  Considering the Tar Heels were the best team in the country, this was perhaps excusable, but what wasn’t excusable was the Cavaliers’ Sweet 16 loss to UAB.  However, looking back, there were some mitigating circumstances.  First of all, the game was played in Birmingham on the Blazers’ home court.  Now that’s ridiculous.  There is no way that a #1 seed should be playing a road game in the regionals.  In addition, first team All-ACC performer Othell Wilson was hurt and played just four minutes.  With a healthy Othell Wilson and a reasonable draw, Virginia probably would’ve been in the Final Four again.  But they weren’t.  Coupled with the disappointments from the previous two ACC Tournaments, they started to gain a “can’t win the big one” reputation.  Sampson was again named National Player of the Year over DePaul’s Terry Cummings, and this time the votes were not close.

In 1983, Virginia was preseason #1.  They added Maine transfer Rick Carlisle to their core group.  They went 25-3 in the regular season, with two losses to UNC and the infamous Chaminade loss.  Going into the ACC Tournament they were ranked second behind the Phi Slamma Jamma Houston Cougars.  The Cavaliers demolished their first two opponents by 33 and 29 points and figured to have gotten a break when NC State upset North Carolina in the other semifinal.  But the Wolfpack surprised everyone by upsetting the Cavaliers in the final, flushing Sampson’s last chance to bring home an ACC Tournament title.  Virginia was sent West as the #1 seed in that region.  The main competition was expected to come from PAC-10 champions UCLA, but the Bruins were upset by Utah.  Virginia survived a couple of tight games to advance to the regional final, where much to everyone’s surprise, NC State was waiting for the Cavaliers again.  And we all know what happened; the Wolfpack broke Sampson’s heart one last time with a 63-62 win.  The Cavaliers shot 63% from the field.  How do you shoot 63% and lose?  Answer: -11 in turnover margin and 10-19 from the line.  Time and again during Sampson’s tenure, the Cavaliers were done in by missing clutch free throws.  Sampson received another consolation prize as he was named ACC and National Player of the Year for a third time (although the ACC POY vote was surprisingly close with Michael Jordan).

How, then, do we summarize Sampson’s career?  As a three-time national player of the year, he has to be regarded as one of the greatest players in the history of college basketball.  And yet for many fans, his name is synonymous with unfulfilled promise and missed opportunity. Is it fair? I think we can attribute it to a little bit of bad luck, a little bit of running into the wrong team at the wrong time, and some genuine failure to perform in the biggest moments.  One of the conclusions I have come to in reflecting on 1983 is that NC State was pretty doggone good.  Call them a Cinderella if you want, but look at who they had.  A couple of NBA players in Sidney Lowe and Thurl Bailey, a great shooter in Dereck Whittenburg, a future Top 100 player in Lorenzo Charles. Those upsets over Virginia and everyone else weren’t as surprising as they were portrayed at the time.  In addition, Sampson’s supporting cast wasn’t good enough.  Othell Wilson was a nice player, Rick Carlisle was a nice player, but they did not have a real complement to Sampson after Jeff Lamp graduated.  Opponents in the postseason were able to design defenses around smothering Sampson and making the other players beat them, and they couldn’t do it.

3. Christian Laettner, Duke, 1989-1992

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

Christian Laettner. For me personally, I don’t think there’s any ACC player who conjures up as many powerful memories. His time at Duke corresponded exactly with my high school years, the time when my interest in ACC basketball was at its highest. For me he was a kind of basketball version of Ric Flair – the villain you love to hate. For whatever reason, what sticks out to me most with Laettner, besides the Kentucky shot I guess, is how he suddenly started shooting threes as a senior – and proceeded to knock down 56% of them. That season still ranks 13th all-time in NCAA Division I for three-point shooting percentage. He seems like the kind of guy who could pick up a bowling ball for the first time and roll a 300. He made everything look easy.

Any consideration of Laettner’s greatness has to deal with the question of how much weight to put on his NCAA Tournament performance.  Laettner is right up there with Bill Russell, Oscar Robertson, Lew Alcindor, and Bill Walton as the greatest March Madness performers ever.  He played in four Final Fours and three championship games, winning two.  His overall record in NCAA Tournament play was 21-2.  He is the tournament’s all-time leading scorer.  He was Most Outstanding Player of his region twice, and of the tournament once.  He won two tournament games on buzzer beaters.  He had the famous “perfect game” against Kentucky when he went 10-for-10 from the field and 10-for-10 from the line.  He had an incredible individual performance in 1991, leading the Blue Devils to a Final Four win over UNLV who had manhandled them the year before.  For his career, he shot over 60% from the field and 85% from the line in the NCAA Tournament.  I could go on.

One way I thought of looking at it is this.  Let’s pretend for a moment that Laettner had never played in the NCAA Tournament.  Where would he rank then?  My thinking is, he’d be somewhere in the mid-teens, maybe in the Johnny Dawkins/Danny Ferry range.  He was ACC and national player of the year as a senior, so that obviously counts for a lot.  As a junior, though, he was “only” second team All-America, and he didn’t win ACC POY either as that went to Rodney Monroe.  As a sophomore, he finished seventh in All-ACC voting, landing on second team.  It’s a pretty similar record to a Bias, Ferry, or Dawkins. Of course, one could argue that he was national player of the year precisely because of his NCAA Tournament performance – that his reputation was bolstered so much by his tournament exploits in 1990 and 1991 that it carried over into the voting in 1992.

So how much extra credit does he get for being the greatest NCAA Tournament performer of all time?  Well, a lot.  I started out with him fourth, behind Thompson, Sampson, and Duncan.  I still think in my heart of hearts that Duncan was better, but… there’s just too much there.  I have to put Laettner ahead.  Now I’m asking myself if he should be ahead of Sampson. I guess that’s going too far; Sampson wasn’t bad in the tournament, and he wasn’t playing with Bobby Hurley either.

Here’s a fun stat.  Laettner played in four regional finals.  Those are pretty big games, right?  I mean aside from winning the championship, making the Final Four is the most impactful and meaningful and memorable thing that a college basketball team can accomplish.  Well, in those four games, Laettner averaged 24.3 points on 91% from the field and 92% from the line, and won two of the games with buzzer beaters.  That’s not a typo – 91% from the field in those four games.

Laettner’s NCAA Tournament records of 23 games played and 407 total points seem unbreakable. 23 games is almost literally unbreakable; 24 games is the maximum possible over four years (excepting the dreaded play-in games) unless the tournament expands. And anyone good enough to score 407 points would never stay four years now. So I think Laettner’s record will stand forever.

4. Tim Duncan, Wake Forest, 1994-1997

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

Tim Duncan is probably the greatest defensive player in ACC history.  Him or Ralph Sampson, I guess.  Duncan, Sampson, Tree Rollins, and Shelden Williams, in that order, rank 1-2-3-5 in career blocks and 2-3-4-5 in career rebounds.

We associate Duncan with Randolph Childress, but they overlapped for only two seasons in 1994 and 1995.  1995 was the year for them to do something special if they were going to, and with their ACC Tournament performance, I suppose you could say they did.  I remember their loss to Oklahoma State in the Sweet 16 and how surprised I was.  But looking back, I shouldn’t have been that surprised.  Wake had Childress and Duncan, which is a lot, but not much else.  Tony Rutland, Ricky Peral, Jerry Braswell, Rusty LaRue, and Scooter Banks.  Rutland and Banks were okay I guess, but that’s not a lot of talent.  And they got a bit unlucky in their tournament draw; Oklahoma State was an underseeded #4.  According to the Simple Rating System on sports-reference.com, the Cowboys were the seventh-best team in the country.  I think I was just disappointed when Wake lost because I really enjoyed watching that team play.

What strikes me about Duncan’s record is how good the Deacs were in 1996 and 1997 considering the weak talent surrounding him.  Wake went 11-5 and 12-4 in the ACC and finished 9th in the AP poll both years.  Without Duncan, that’s a lower division ACC team.  I’m trying to think of another instance where one player elevated a team that much.  Len Bias, as great as he was, wasn’t able to lift his teams to the Top 10.  In 1998, without Duncan, the Deacs dropped from 24-7/11-5 to 16-14/7-9.  I think that’s about right; Duncan was worth 8 extra wins by himself. Duncan was first team All-America and ACC Player of the Year both years, and was consensus National Player of the Year as a senior.

Duncan’s 1997 rebounds per game average of 14.74 had not been equaled since in NCAA Division I – until Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe pulled down 15.2 in 2022.

In the past 35 years, roughly corresponding to the Mike Krzyzewski era at Duke but leaving out his first few years when they weren’t very good, here are the best records I could find against Coach K’s Duke teams:

  • Tim Duncan, 8-1 against Duke in his career (1994-1997)
  • Randoph Childress, 7-2 against Duke in his career (1991, 1993-1995)
  • Jeff McInnis, 6-0 against Duke in his career (1994-1996)
  • Tyler Hansbrough/Danny Green, 6-2 against Duke in their career (2006-2009)
  • Honorable mention, Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace, 4-0 against Duke in their career (1994-1995)

Duncan, Hansbrough/Green, and McInnis never lost at Cameron.  So far as I can tell, they are the only players of significance in this era who can say that (not counting Stackhouse and Wallace who played only two games).  Notice that most of these good records happened during the mid-1990s lean years, the forgettable era between the Laettner/Hurley/Grant Hill teams and the Battier/Brand teams.  These were the Blue Devils of Chris Collins, Jeff Capel, Greg Newton, Ricky Price, Steve Wojciechowski, and, of course, Pete Gaudet

6. Phil Ford, UNC, 1975-1978

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

Phil Ford was the quintessential Carolina basketball player. It’s hard to put into words what I mean by that, but perhaps those of you who watched him will understand. He was Dean Smith Carolina basketball personified. He knew instinctively what Dean wanted and, because a) he was so good and b) he always had the ball in his hands, he just made it happen. It is difficult to do justice to the skill and even artistry with which he orchestrated the action on the floor. His mastery of the Four Corners and the sense of dread and futility it created among opposing teams is one of the enduring narratives of ACC basketball history, as is his tour de force performance in the 1975 ACC Tournament, in which the Tar Heels finally stopped the irresistible force that was David Thompson. I’ve often thought that if time of possession by a player were a statistic in basketball, then Ford would be the all-time leader. Phil Ford, the point guard par excellence.

But while he is the quintessential Carolina player, is he the best player?  I have no data to support this, but it seems like the prevailing opinion is that he is.  Influencing that opinion is a reaction against the thoughtless invocation of Michael Jordan as the greatest by casual fans who haven’t considered the question carefully and are conflating Jordan’s NBA career with his college career.  The question is further complicated by Tyler Hansbrough and Lennie Rosenbluth who have cases of their own.  But I’ve already staked out my position with regard to Hansbrough and Rosenbluth, and I’m sticking to it.

But as great as Ford was, I think Michael Jordan was better.  It almost seems impossible, but Jordan is now actually underrated as a college player.  The pendulum has swung too far and we have lost sight of how great he actually was in college.

In many ways, this debate comes down to career value vs. peak value.  Had Jordan played a fourth year, it would be easy; Jordan would be regarded as one of the greatest players in the history of college basketball and the debate would be about whether he is #1 on this list or #2.  But he didn’t.  Ford played four years, and Jordan played three.  Ford is on all kinds of all-time leaderboards, and Jordan isn’t.  Ford made All-America three times, Jordan “only” twice. 

But there are two things for me that put Jordan over the top.  One, he had two years that in my opinion were better than Ford’s best year.  Jordan in 1984 was National Player of the Year, and it wasn’t close.  He dominated the voting over some great players – Wayman Tisdale, Patrick Ewing, Chris Mullin, and teammate Sam Perkins.  Ford’s best year was his senior year of 1978.  He won the Wooden Award in a very close vote over Marquette’s Butch Lee, but Lee won the AP and UPI Awards by a healthy margin.  Ford in fact finished third in the UPI balloting behind Lee and Larry Bird.  The data suggest that Ford and Lee were regarded as the two best players in the country in a very close competition, with a slight edge perhaps going to Lee.  So when we compare Jordan 1984 to Ford 1978, advantage Jordan.

But what about Jordan’s 1983?  If you look at the voting totals, it’s clear that Jordan was regarded as the second-best player in the country to Ralph Sampson.  In every award for which we have voting totals – AP Player of the Year, UPI Player of the Year, Wooden Award, UPI All-America – Jordan finished second to Sampson.  Jordan (61 votes) darn near won the ACC Player of the Year over Sampson (75 votes).  Folks, we’re talking Ralph Sampson here.  The senior year of one of the greatest players in the history of college basketball.  In context, I think Jordan’s 1983 year was just as impressive, if not better, than Ford’s best year of 1978.  Finishing second to Ralph Sampson is more impressive than finishing in a tie with Butch Lee.

The second factor in Jordan’s favor is this.  Ford did better nationally than he did with ACC voters, and I can’t shake the sense that there is a little bit of the Bobby Hurley/Kenny Smith effect going on here.  In other words, highly publicized point guards of blue blood programs who are fawned over by national writers, but whom ACC voters see for who they are.  Ford was ACC Player of the Year as a senior, and by a wide margin.  But as a junior, he finished a distant second to Rod Griffin.  So if we match them up, both Jordan and Ford had a year where they ran away with ACC POY.  But in their second-best years, Jordan finished a close second to one of the all-time greats in college basketball; Ford finished a distant second to Rod Griffin. 

Now I do have to point out that Ford was a much better ACC Tournament performer than Jordan.  Jordan was first team All-Tournament only once; Ford made it three times and was Most Outstanding Player as a freshman, when he led the Tar Heels to an electrifying win in the final over David Thompson and NC State.

NCAA Tournament performance?  I’d call it a wash.  I think you’d have to say that both players, on the whole, were a little bit disappointing in that regard, in spite of Jordan’s iconic moment in 1982.  Ford’s 1977 team made a run to the national final. He had a mix of good and bad games.  The other teams he played on did nothing in the tournament.  Jordan’s last two teams both disappointed in the tournament.  The 1984 loss to Indiana in the Sweet 16 ranks as one of the all-time disappointing endings for any team, anywhere.  Jordan famously fouled out of that game and finished his college career sitting on the bench.

It really comes down to the fact that I think Jordan’s best was better than Ford’s best, and I don’t think Ford’s extra year and ACC Tournament performance is enough to make up for that.  I can’t quite get past Ford’s performance in ACC POY voting.  If you’re one of the five best players in ACC history, you should not be losing 89-31 to Rod Griffin, with all due respect to Griffin, whom I recognize as a historically underrated player.

Few players have fallen as far, as fast, as Ford.  He was NBA Rookie of the Year and second-team All-NBA in 1979.  Ford and Otis Birdsong appeared to give the Kansas City Kings a young backcourt they could build around.  Ford continued to play at a very high level in his second and third years.  In his last 24 games in 1981, Ford averaged 24 points and 9 assists on 53% from the field and 85% from the line.  He was at the height of his powers.  Then, on February 22, 1981, he was inadvertently poked in the eye by World B. Free.  Expected to return quickly, Ford was unable to shake the double vision that he was experiencing, and he missed the rest of the season – a season that saw the Kings, without Ford, make an unexpected run to the Western Conference finals.

And, in short, Ford was never a good player again.  He returned to the Kings the next season, but he wasn’t the same player.  Alcoholism certainly played a role, and maybe that was the sole cause; I haven’t been able to find a detailed account of what happened.  In any case, within a few years, he was out of the league.