Tag: basketball

Bracketology 2/19

Another week of college basketball is in the books. This week the NCAA came out with their top 16 seeds, which is kind of a sanity check for us bracketologists. I was more or less on target with one exception; I had UConn as a 3 seed over Marquette. I can certainly see why the committee would pick Marquette; they are 13-3 in the Big East, while UConn is only 9-7. However, UConn has in incredibly impressive non-conference resume; they beat Alabama, Iowa State, and Oregon on neutral courts, and they won at Florida, and the closest of those four games was 15 points.

But I do think the committee has a recency bias, and you might say that’s appropriate, although in my opinion games in November ought to count the same as games in February.

Here’s an update on ACC teams.

Virginia – headed for a 3 at this point, and more likely to move down than up.

Pitt – I have them as an 11 after the loss to Virginia Tech. That is lower than most prognosticators. Despite their ACC record, their overall resume isn’t that good. They have 6 sub-Quad I losses – the most of any serious tournament contender. They better not stumble down the stretch.

Miami – A solid 5 and more likely to go up than down. Historically, 5s get upset much more than 4s in the tournament. Favorable schedule remaining.

Clemson – I see them as not even close right now. Lunardi’s had them close to the cut line, but I don’t see how. Their NET is 80, they have no Quad I-A wins, and three Quad 4 losses. I’m not aware of any team receiving an at-large bid with three Quad 4 losses. They must win at NC State or at Virginia to even be relevant, and in my opinion they have to win out to get in.

NC State – I have the Wolfpack as a 10 seed, maybe one spot lower than the consensus. They’re not quite a lock, but they would have to fall apart to miss the tournament.

Duke – I have them as an 8. Very close to the 8/9 cut line in my model. They finish with NC State at home and at UNC, so still could move up.

North Carolina – I have the Tar Heels as the first team out, and in a way I think that makes them sound closer than they really are. As the commentators never tire of pointing out, they are 0-9 against Quad I opponents, and they WILL NOT get in without a Quad I win. They have two more chances with home games against Virginia and Duke. If they lose those, forget about it. If they can win one of those, and their two road games against Notre Dame and FSU, then it might come down to the ACC Tournament. My sense is, they won’t get in without two Quad I wins.

Everybody else – not close. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest would have to jump 10-15 teams to get in. Each needs to win out, and then probably do some damage in the ACC Tournament.

And now for the bracket:

  1. Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
  2. Texas, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA
  3. Tennessee, UConn, Gonzaga, Virginia
  4. Marquette, Indiana, Iowa State, Xavier
  5. St. Mary’s, Kansas State, Miami, San Diego State
  6. Creighton, Arkansas, Maryland, Northwestern
  7. TCU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Iowa
  8. Providence, Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke
  9. Illinois, Boise State, Florida Atlantic, Memphis
  10. Nevada, Rutgers, NC State, Oklahoma State
  11. Missouri, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State
  12. College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
  13. Kent State, Liberty, Utah Valley, Southern Miss
  14. Yale, Iona, UC Irvine, Eastern Washington
  15. Youngstown St., Colgate, Vermont, UNC Asheville
  16. Samford, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Morehead State, Howard, Alcorn State, Merrimack

Last Four Byes: NC State, Oklahoma State, Missouri, West Virginia

Last Four In: Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State

First Four Out: UNC, Wisconsin, North Texas, Oregon

Next Four Out: Coll. of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), New Mexico, Penn State, Texas Tech

Officiating in College Basketball

I’m going to engage in a time-honored tradition among college basketball fans: I’m going to complain about the refs.

I take as my illustration the example which is freshest in my mind, last night’s NC State-Syracuse game. But you can start from wherever you are. It really doesn’t matter; the problems are everywhere. I may sound like a whining State fan, and I probably am, but I promise you I could have used just about any other game to illustrate these points.

What I see as the essential problem is this: the officials call too many fouls. Many of the fouls they call are unnecessary. As a result, the officials are too intrusive and have too much influence over the outcome of the game.

How many times do you watch a close college basketball game, and what you remember about it most vividly, and what is talked about after the game, is not the on-court action but the officiating? Doesn’t that indicate that something is wrong? It isn’t supposed to be this way, is it? How often does this happen in baseball, or soccer, or tennis, or golf? That what you remember is a call (or non-call), not a play? Admittedly this does happen quite a bit in football, but I would still say that officiating is more influential in basketball than in any other sport.

Certainly some of the problem is not the fault of the officials or the rules; it’s built into the game of basketball. If you think about it, basketball confines ten people in a very small space. Five of them really want to get somewhere, and the other five really want to keep them from getting there. As a result, there is going to be contact. And that’s a problem, because basketball is supposed to be a “flow” game like soccer or hockey. The ball moves, the players move, the whole game is characterized by free-flowing movement. Excessive contact prevents that, so in order to preserve the integrity of the game, there have to be a lot of restrictions on contact. Certain forms of contact are acceptable, but many are not, and result in a foul. It’s a situation that is naturally set up to result in officials having to make a lot of calls.

The irony of the situation is that the intent of the foul rules is not to interrupt the flow of the game; it is in fact the opposite of that. The foul rules are intended to disincentivize unwanted contact so as to allow the game to flow. In other words, to let basketball be basketball.

These things are destined to always be in tension. On one hand, excessive contact turns the game of basketball into something other than what it was intended to be, and it messes up the balance between offense and defense. On the other hand, the enforcement of the rules around physical contact requires an intrusive officiating presence, with three officials further crowding the already confined space where the players are, watching their every move, and frequently interrupting the game to whistle a violation. The thing that is supposed to preserve the flow of the game has to interrupt the flow of the game to do it.

So my point is, I get it. It’s hard to find the perfect balance between these things, and it always will be. My argument is that college basketball currently leans too heavily towards calling fouls in situations where the contact is insignificant and has little outcome on the play; or where the contact is not an outcome of the natural flow of the game, but is instead a charade.

As Exhibit A, I’d like to reference back-to-back plays in last night’s NC State-Syracuse game. Take a look at the two plays that start around the 9:58 mark in the condensed game video:

In the first play, NC State’s Ebenezer Duwuona is guarding Syracuse’s Jesse Edwards. Edwards works his way into the painted area, very close to the basket. Duwuona moves with him, keeping his body between Edwards and the basket. Duwuona is clearly trying to stay close to Edwards but remain perfectly vertical so as to avoid fouling. When Edwards elevates for the shot, there is a slight amount of body contact, that if anything was created by Edwards jumping into Duwuona. At no time does Duwuona do anything to initiate contact, other than stay close to Edwards. The contact is minimal and appears not to affect Edwards in any way. But it’s a foul on Duwuona.

Folks, there’s nothing to see here. It’s a no-call. I’m not a basketball rules expert, so I’m not trying to say it’s not the correct application of the rule. But if the rules say that’s a foul, then the rules are bad. That contact is incidental and the offensive player needs to be able to finish through it – which Edwards does.

Then you go down to the other end, and the same situation plays out. This time, Edwards is the defender against DJ Burns. Edwards does move his right arm downward a bit as Burns takes the shot, but is there any contact there? I don’t see it. I suppose it’s possible that Edwards made contact with Burns’ left arm, but I’m not able to see it. In any case, you get the idea. This kind of thing happens all the time in college basketball. A defender is making no attempt to defend the play, other than keeping himself between the shooter and the basket. Contact is either non-existent or, at most, gentle. And yet, fouls are called. Action is disrupted. Players foul out. And games are decided.

The other situation I’d like to highlight occurs just two plays later at the 10:34 mark. Burns catches the ball in good post position. He takes a couple of dribbles and goes up for a shot. The defender – who is 6’11” and weighs 230 pounds – hurls himself backwards and goes supine onto the floor. And he is rewarded for this behavior by getting an offensive foul called on Burns.

I find this entire situation intolerable. Burns has done everything right. He has outworked Edwards for good post position. He has turned and gone up strong for a shot. Edwards has done nothing in particular defensively. He has allowed Burns to get good post position and he hasn’t attempted to make a play on the ball. And he knows it. He knows that Burns is about to score on him. And instead of responding by attempting to block Burns’ shot, or simply letting him have the shot that he has earned and trying to get in rebounding position, he has one more trick up his sleeve. He attempts, in what can only be described as a performative act rather than a basketball play, to make it appear as though Burns has barreled right through an innocent defender. And it works.

It’s not Edwards’ fault. People respond to incentives. So as long as this behavior is rewarded, of course defenders are going to do it, and they should. The problem is the rules, or the interpretation of them, that incentivize these plays. The entire concept is flawed. Think about the very language we use to refer to this play – we call it “drawing” a charge. Why do we use that term “draw”? It’s because we know that this is not an attempt to actually play defense; it’s an attempt to lure the offensive player and the officials into playing their appointed roles in a scripted performance.

We’ve all seen it a million times. The offense has put itself in an advantageous position and is moving toward the basket. The defender resorts to inserting himself into the path of the offensive player who is in the process of leaping or shooting, in hopes that the offensive player will knock him over. Oftentimes the player crosses his arms over his chest in a kind of “brace for impact” position. The whole thing is contrived. It’s not defense, it’s theater; and we fall for it.

There are offensive fouls that occur naturally in the course of play. A dribbler will hook a defender with his arm in an attempt to get by. A screener will move into a defender. A defender who is actually guarding someone by moving his feet in a defensive stance will get knocked over by an overly aggressive driver. I have no problem at all with those calls. What I have a problem with is the non-defensive play where the defender sets himself up like a bowling pin in the lane and then launches himself backward in an attempt to create the appearance of something.

Get in a defensive stance. Make a play on the ball. Get a steal. Block a shot. Contest a shot. Hack him and make him earn it from the line. Or get out of the way and let him score. But this performative nonsense must be stopped. The solution is to just stop calling it. We don’t call it within the restricted area; how about if we increase that area by a few feet? How about if officials exercise some discernment about guys who are seven feet tall being knocked off their feet rather than actually contesting a shot?

To me, the key differentiator should be, what is the defender’s intent? Does the defender get knocked over in the process of actually guarding the offensive player, or is the defender attempting to get knocked over and “draw” a charge? You may say it’s asking too much for the officials to determine intent, but is it? As a fan, can’t you tell the difference between a defender who is trying to guard someone and a defender who is trying to draw a charge? If you can tell, don’t you think the best referees in college basketball should be able to tell too? It would send a clear message to the players: stop messing around and play basketball. Isn’t that what we want?

After the game, Kevin Keatts was uncharacteristically direct about his displeasure with the officiating. He said exactly what I was thinking: “let the players decide the game”. Yes. Of course, the officials would probably say, the players do decide the game – by fouling or not fouling in critical situations. That’s true, in a sense, but the spirit of Keatts’ comment is certainly correct. We should err on the side of letting players play and keeping officials out of the way.

There is much else that could be said about officiating as well. The ego-driven histrionics of the some of the officials; the incessant reviews that bog down the ends of games; and the blatant missed calls such as the one that gave Virginia a win over Duke that they shouldn’t have had. But this is the thing that bothers me most.

Bracketology 2/12

It’s been a busy weekend in college basketball. Here are the Bracketology headlines:

  • Texas moves up to the top line. Their 10-5 Quadrant 1 record, including 6 wins against Quadrant 1A, is too good to ignore. Their blowout of West Virginia drops the Mountaineers to a 9.
  • Tennessee drops down to a 3 after another buzzer-beater loss, this time at the hands of Missouri. The Tigers jump up to a 7.
  • Creighton is on fire and they jump to a 5.
  • Oklahoma State gets a huge win at Iowa State and jumps to a 7.
  • Providence is now firmly in bubble territory after their fourth loss in their last five games.
  • Mississippi State gets a huge win at Arkansas and jumps into the field.
  • Kentucky remains in the bracket after losing at Georgia, but just barely.
  • New Mexico drops out of the field with a bad loss at Air Force.

In the ACC,

  • NC State moved up a line after blowing out Boston College
  • UNC solidified their position a bit by blowing out Clemson
  • Miami and Pitt avoided bad losses with wins over Louisville and FSU
  • Virginia Tech and Wake Forest kept their faint hopes alive with wins over Notre Dame and Georgia Tech

A lot of bracketologists still have Clemson in. I don’t see it. They have two Quad 4 losses. At-large teams with two Quad 4 losses are extremely rare. Since 2016, there have been four: Providence 2017, Providence 2018, Baylor 2019, and Arizona State 2019. The first three of those teams had much stronger Quad 1 wins than the Tigers do. Arizona State 2019, well that was one of the oddest and most controversial selections in recent memory. Clemson is down to 77th in the NET. No team ranked lower than that has been selected as an at-large team since at least 2016, although Rutgers 2022 was exactly 77th. But they had six Quad 1 wins.

We can’t talk about yesterday without talking about Duke-Virginia. It’s odd to be in the position of defending Duke for being on the wrong end of a call, but that was a miscarriage of justice. Considering the circumstances – the importance of the situation, the fact that the replays clearly showed what happened and the officials had all the time they needed to review, and the fact that the correct call was made on the floor but was reversed – I think that’s the worst officiating decision I’ve ever seen.

From the explanations, I gather that the officials reasoned that the foul occurred not on the arm but with the body, and the body contact happened after the buzzer, therefore no foul. There are two things wrong with that. 1) That’s not the rule. 2) Yes, the foul absolutely did take place on the arm.

Let’s not overthink this. It doesn’t require knowledge of arcane rules. A guy went up for a shot and was hacked in the act before the clock ran out. Anyone with eyes could see it. Get the call right, and Duke very likely has a massive road win. With that win, Duke is probably a 7 seed, maybe a 6. As it is, I have them as a 9. That’s lower than Lunardi and most others, but if you forget about the name on the jersey and look at the blind resume, that’s where they belong.

Here’s the current bracket, with automatic bids in bold:

  1. Alabama, Purdue, Kansas, Texas
  2. Houston, Baylor, Arizona, UCLA
  3. Virginia, Tennessee, UConn, Xavier
  4. Gonzaga, Kansas State, Marquette, Indiana
  5. Iowa State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, Creighton
  6. Miami, Illinois, TCU, Arkansas
  7. Florida Atlantic, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Auburn
  8. Maryland, Rutgers, Nevada, Michigan State
  9. West Virginia, NC State, Iowa, Duke
  10. Memphis, Northwestern, Boise State, Providence
  11. Mississippi State, UNC, Pitt, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Oregon
  12. College of Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake, Liberty
  13. Southern Miss, VCU, Sam Houston, Kent St.
  14. Yale, Iona, Furman, UC Santa Barbara
  15. Youngstown St., Eastern Washington, Colgate, Vermont
  16. UNC Asheville, Northwestern St., Alcorn St., Howard, Morehead St., Fairleigh Dickinson

Last Four Byes: Boise State, Providence, Mississippi State, UNC

Last Four In (Play-in games): Pitt, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Oregon

First Four Out: USC, New Mexico, Utah State, Wisconsin

Next Four Out: College of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), North Texas, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall

And Even the Next Four Out After That: Arizona State, Florida, Wake Forest, Clemson

Bracketology 2023 – 2/9 Bracket

The last Bracketology post I made was on the morning of March 12, 2020. That was the day the college basketball world stopped and everything got cancelled.

Thankfully, things have returned to something like normal, and I’m going to give this Bracketology thing another try here in 2023. I’ll do regular bracket updates, the occasional bubble watch, and some targeted commentary for ACC teams.

Here’s my bracket as it stands right now. Automatic bids in bold:

  1. Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Houston
  2. Arizona, Texas, Baylor, Tennessee
  3. UCLA, Virginia, Xavier, UConn
  4. Kansas St., Gonzaga, Iowa St., Marquette
  5. Miami, Indiana, San Diego St., St. Mary’s
  6. Arkansas, TCU, Creighton, Auburn
  7. West Virginia, Rutgers, Illinois, Duke
  8. Florida Atlantic, Michigan St., Nevada, Iowa
  9. Maryland, Providence, Northwestern, Boise St.
  10. Memphis, NC State, Missouri, New Mexico
  11. Oklahoma St., Pitt, Kentucky, USC, UNC, Oregon
  12. College of Charleston, Oral Roberts, Liberty, Southern Miss
  13. VCU, Drake, Sam Houston, Kent St.
  14. Yale, Iona, Furman, UC Santa Barbara
  15. Colgate, E. Washington, Youngstown St., Vermont
  16. UNC Asheville, Northwestern St., Morgan St., Fairleigh Dickinson, Maryland Eastern Shore, Southern

Last Four Byes: Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma St., Pitt

Last Four In (Play-in games): Kentucky, USC, UNC, Oregon

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Utah St., Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: College of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), Florida, Clemson, Wake Forest

Armando Bacot

Since I recently finished my series on the ACC’s 100 greatest players, I’ve been thinking about Armando Bacot and where he might fit into that group eventually. Bacot has a chance to do some amazing things. Let’s start with this. Last season, Bacot became the first ACC player in 66 years to grab 500 rebounds.

ACC 500 Rebound Seasons:

  • Dickie Hemric, 1955, 515
  • Ronnie Shavlik, 1955, 581
  • Ronnie Shavlik, 1956, 545
  • Armando Bacot, 2022, 511

Bacot needs 498 rebounds this season to become the fifth player in ACC history to have 1500 career rebounds.

ACC Career Rebound Leaders:

  • Hemric, 1802 (partially in Southern Conference)
  • Tim Duncan, 1570
  • Shavlik, 1567 (in 3 years)
  • Ralph Sampson, 1511

Bacot also has a chance to become the ACC’s 43rd 2000 point scorer. He needs 699 points. For reference, he had 635 last year. So it could happen. He needs one more bucket per game than he had last year.

Let’s play out the best-case scenario. Let’s say Bacot is National Player of the Year, ACC Player of the Year, and gets to 2000 career points and 1500 career rebounds – none of which is farfetched. Where would he rank in the Top 100? I think he’d be in the 20s, somewhere around Mark Price and Shavlik, in that range. If the Tar Heels could win the national championship, also not farfetched, maybe he could sneak into the teens, into Mike Gminski territory.

If Bacot is ACC Player of the Year and first team All-America, even if he doesn’t do all those other things, he’s probably a Top 50 player, similar to a Shelden Williams.

It hurts Bacot a bit that he didn’t win ACC Player of the Year last year. With all due respect to Alondes Williams, I think that vote was questionable.

When is the last time that an ACC player as good as Bacot came back for another year? I think you have to go back to Tyler Hansbrough in 2009. Hansbrough’s play slipped a little bit in his senior year, but he still had a great year, and the Tar Heels won the national championship. We’ll see how things play out for Bacot.

Honorable Mention

As a way of wrapping up this series, I thought it would be good to make a list of other players who received serious consideration for the Top 100.  If you took my last 25 players and replaced them with some of these guys, you wouldn’t be losing much.  I list them in chronological order.

Joe Belmont, Duke, 1954-1956; Ronnie Mayer, Duke, 1954-1956; Lefty Davis, Wake Forest, 1954-1956

Belmont, Mayer, Davis, and #99 Vic Molodet of NC State formed a quartet of players who all played from 1954-1956 and are very difficult to distinguish.  In terms of career All-ACC balloting, Mayer received 452 points, Molodet 434, Belmont 401, Davis 385. 

Tommy Kearns, UNC, 1956-1958

Kearns and #74 Pete Brennan were the key players supporting #17 Lennie Rosenbluth on the 1957 championship team.  In 1958, without Rosenbluth, Kearns made first team All-ACC, but Brennan was ACC Player of the Year.

Doug Moe, UNC, 1959-1961

I had Moe on my list for a while but eventually took him off.  He was academically ineligible in the fall of 1959 and missed over half the Tar Heels’ games.  That probably kept him from being a three-time first-team All-ACC player and cost him a spot on the list.

Coach Bill Strannigan of Wyoming says he has seen only one basketball player better than North Carolina’s Doug Moe, 6-foot-6 senior.  “He was Wilt Chamberlain when he played for Kansas,” says Strannigan.  – The York Dispatch, York, PA, February 28, 1961

Bob Leonard, Wake Forest, 1964-1966

A prolific scorer who arrived just after the glory years of Chappell and Packer. Two-time first team All-ACC and two-time first team All-Tournament. He is the only player with the particular collection of honors who is not in the Top 100.

Eddie Biedenbach, NC State, 1965-1968

Two-time first team All-ACC player who was recruited by Everett Case, played two years for Press Maravich after Case resigned, missed a year with an injury, then played his last year for Norm Sloan.

Tom Owens, South Carolina, 1969-1971; Randy Denton, Duke, 1969-1971

Owens and Denton are similar players who played at the same time.  They finished first and second in rebounds per game all three seasons.  Owens finished his career with 444 All-ACC points; Denton had 442.  Owens was also an outstanding ACC Tournament performer, making first team All-Tournament twice.

Tate Armstrong, Duke, 1974-1977

A sharpshooting Texan, Armstrong was a tremendous scorer who didn’t have any help for most of his career. Then, once help arrived in the form of Spanarkel and Gminski, he went and broke his wrist and missed the second half of his senior year. He probably would have led the league in scoring and made first team All-ACC for the second time. That 1977 Duke team was sneaky good and a keen observer might have perceived that some magic was in the air in 1978.

Walter Davis, UNC, 1974-1977

“Sweet D” was a tremendous player who played at the same time as Kenny Carr, Skip Brown, and Tree Rollins. Overall he seems just behind them in terms of his accomplishments. He is perhaps another player who was held back a bit by playing for Dean Smith; when he got to the NBA, he was immediately one of the best players in the league.

Buck Williams, Maryland, 1979-1981

Williams was named to the 2003 list of the ACC’s 50 greatest players.  I don’t see how you name someone who never made first team All-ACC to the Top 50, but he was very good.

Othell Wilson, Virginia, 1981-1984

Wilson was the other guy on the #2 Ralph Sampson powerhouse Virginia teams.  His injury in 1982 may have cost the Cavaliers a chance to go to the Final Four that year.  But Wilson was a starter on two other Final Four teams (1981 and 1984).  He was first team All-ACC as a sophomore and barely missed as a junior.

Elden Campbell, Clemson, 1987-1990; Dale Davis, Clemson, 1988-1991

I stared at these two for hours and ultimately gave up.  I couldn’t even decide whether Campbell or Davis was better, much less whether they should be in the Top 100.  Clemson was really, really good in 1990, and it’s too bad they got nipped by the UConn buzzer beater.  But it spared them the pain of getting beaten by Duke in the regional final.

Chris Corchiani, NC State, 1988-1991

Maybe voting with my heart more than my head here, since Corchiani never made first team All-ACC.  But he was a great floor general and was the NCAA all-time assist leader until #35 Bobby Hurley surpassed his total (in ~700 more career minutes).  Second in ACC career assists and third in steals.  Remember that thing he used to do if a defender was pressuring him as he brought it up the court?  He would accelerate to get past the defender, then when the defender started running to catch up, Corchiani would suddenly put on the brakes.  The defender wouldn’t be able to stop quickly enough and would wind up on Corchiani’s back and get called for a foul.  Never seen that move from anyone else.

Travis Best, Georgia Tech, 1992-1995

Travis Best, along with Tree Rollins and Buck Williams, is one of the best players never to make first team All-ACC.  He finished sixth in 1994, three points behind #28 Joe Smith; and he finished sixth again in 1995, this time seven points behind Rasheed Wallace.  He is one of only four players in ACC history with 2000 points and 600 assists (the others are #6 Phil Ford, #61 Greivis Vasquez, and #18 Jason Williams).

Chris Carrawell, Duke, 1997-2000

Carrawell really had just the one year, and even that year I think he was a bit overrated.  It was one of those “best player on the best team” situations.  Except he wasn’t really the best player, #14 Shane Battier was.  But, he did run away with ACC Player of the Year and was first or second-team All-American.  Starter on the awesome 1999 team that lost to UConn in the championship game.  Duke’s five starters all finished in the top 12 in All-ACC balloting.

Ed Cota, UNC, 1997-2000; Lonny Baxter, Maryland, 1999-2002

Ed Cota and Lonny Baxter are similar players, not in their playing styles of course, but in terms of the trajectory of their careers.  Both were very good as freshmen and played key roles for their entire four-year careers; both made All-ACC three times; both players plateaued as very good but not great players; and both players had some NCAA Tournament success.  Cota played on three Final Four teams; Baxter was of course a key contributor to the 2002 national championship team.  Cota was essentially the same player – the same very good player – for his entire career.

Justin Gray, Wake Forest, 2003-2006

One of the outstanding three-point shooters in league history, Gray ranks eighth in career three-point field goals made. He is in the top 60 in career points scored and made first team All-ACC as a sophomore, but as a junior he was overshadowed by teammate Chris Paul and fell to second team. Then as a senior, the Deacons simply fell apart once ACC play started, finishing 3-13 in the league, and despite excellent individual stats, Gray was relegated to second team again.

Jared Dudley, Boston College, 2004-2007

Had his first two years not been in the Big East, Dudley would probably be in the Top 100.  ACC Player of the Year and second team All-American in 2007.  He was first team All-Big East in 2005.

Al Thornton, Florida State, 2004-2007

Thornton was a bit player his first two years, but he emerged as a junior and had a terrific senior year, finishing a close runner-up to Jared Dudley for ACC Player of the Year and making third team All-American.

Sean Singletary, Virginia, 2005-2008; Tyrese Rice, Boston College, 2006-2009; Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech, 2008-2011

Singletary, Rice, and Delaney are similar cases.  They played during more or less the same era; each scored over 2,000 career points; each made All-ACC a lot; each played on mediocre teams; none received serious consideration for ACC Player of the Year or national honors.  Singletary probably has the best case; he did play on a pretty good Virginia team in 2007, and he received 12 votes for ACC Player of the Year that year.  He is the only player to make first team All-ACC three times who isn’t on my list.  If I had it to do over again, I would probably find a spot for him.

Jack McClinton, Miami, 2007-2009

A two-time first team All-ACC performer who is one of the great shooters in league history. Second to JJ Redick in career free-throw percentage; second to Bo Outlaw in career three-point percentage, but at a much higher volume.

Trevor Booker, Clemson, 2007-2010

A personal favorite of mine.  Five ACC players have 1700 points, 1000 rebounds, and 200 blocks: #2 Ralph Sampson, #15 Sam Perkins, #4 Tim Duncan, #40 Shelden Williams – and Booker.  He played on the best stretch of basketball teams in Clemson history, the four-year run from 2008-2011 when the Tigers had winning records in the ACC and made the NCAA Tournament each year.  All three of the Booker teams (2008, 2009, 2010) lost in the first round.

Jerian Grant, Notre Dame, 2012-2015

Similar case to Jared Dudley.  Grant played his first two years in the Big East and was second team All-Big East as a sophomore.  As a senior, lost out on ACC Player of the Year to Jahlil Okafor, but was MOP of the ACC Tournament as the Irish took the title.  Came within a hair’s breadth of beating 37-0 Kentucky in the regional final and making Notre Dame’s first Final Four since 1978.  Missed most of the 2014 season with an injury which may have kept him off the list, as he was playing at a very high level.

Brice Johnson, UNC, 2013-2016

Similar to Carrawell in that Johnson really just had the one year, but it was some year.  He finished runner-up to #52 Malcolm Brogdon for ACC Player of the Year and was a first team All-American.  He was the MOP of the South Region for a UNC team that came tantalizingly close to winning it all.

Kyle Guy, Virginia, 2017-2019

Kyle Guy was #100 when I first published the top 100 list. Since then, I’ve changed my mind and moved him into honorable mention. His main argument is that he was MOP of the ACC Tournament (2018) and the NCAA Tournament (2019).  The only other players to win both those honors are Art Heyman, James Worthy, Christian Laettner, Shane Battier, and Kyle Singler. But honestly, Guy did not have a great NCAA Tournament in 2019. This was not a Sean May 2005, David Thompson 1974, Juan Dixon 2002, Christian Laettner 1991-type performance. He was money in the final which is why he won the award. Guy did make first team All-ACC twice, but both times he was the 5th-leading vote getter and finished behind a number of other guys who aren’t anywhere close to this list.  It’s not enough.

1. David Thompson, NC State, 1973-1975

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

I still think David Thompson is the greatest player ever in college basketball. David was the queen on the chessboard. He could go everywhere: inside, outside, rebounding. His impact was felt all over the floor. He changed the game. Everyone from then on wanted to be a Skywalker. – Len Elmore, quoted in Legends of NC State Basketball by Tim Peeler

David Thompson is the best player in ACC basketball history.  That’s not a controversial conclusion, but is it unassailable?  Who else has an argument? 

I’d say Sampson has an argument, and… that’s it.  Laettner is my number three, and even if you give him every possible advantage, I don’t see a line of reasoning that leads to the conclusion that he was better than David Thompson.  As for Sampson, he was consensus national Player of the Year three times compared to once for Thompson.  So why does Thompson rate ahead?  It comes down to three things.

  1. The three vs. one thing is an oversimplification.  Sampson did not win all the awards in 1981.  Danny Ainge won the Wooden Award and the NABC Award, and Mark Aguirre won the Sporting News Award.  Even in Sampson’s senior year of 1983, Jordan won the Sporting News award.  So Sampson’s three is really more like 2.5.  Thompson, in addition to his sweep of the 1975 awards, also won the AP award in 1974, while Bill Walton won the others.  So Thompson’s one is really more like 1.5.
  2. Competition for the awards.  Sampson was competing with Danny Ainge, Terry Cummings, Mark Aguirre, James Worthy, and sophomore Michael Jordan.  Thompson was competing with Bill Walton, generally considered to be one of the five best college basketball players of all time. 
  3. Tournament play.  Thompson had one of the all-time great NCAA Tournament performances in 1974, dethroning UCLA and leading the Wolfpack to a national championship.  Sampson’s tournament history was characterized mostly by frustration and missed opportunity.

I’ve mentioned a couple of times the ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia that I have from 2008.  DT is the top-ranked ACC player in their listing of the 50 greatest college basketball players.  The full list of ACC players is:

#8, David Thompson

#13, Christian Laettner

#16, Ralph Sampson

#17, Michael Jordan

#18, Tim Duncan

#27, Phil Ford

#33, Grant Hill

#45, Art Heyman

#46, Len Bias

#47, John Lucas

All of these are reasonable selections except for Hill and Lucas, who have no business in the Top 50 in my opinion.  But back to Thompson.  The seven players listed in front of him are:

#1, Lew Alcindor/Kareem

#2, Oscar Robertson

#3, Bill Russell

#4, Bill Walton

#5, Pete Maravich

#6, Jerry West

#7, Bill Bradley

I’m not going to tread on sacred ground by arguing that Thompson was better than Alcindor, Robertson, or Russell.  But the comparison with Walton is interesting, because they were contemporaries and collided so memorably in 1974.  Looking at the record, it’s not obvious that Bill Walton was a better player than David Thompson.  Their careers coincided, but not perfectly; Walton played 1972-74, while Thompson was 1973-75.  One way to look at it is this.  Each of them played one year without the other – 1972 for Walton, 1975 for Thompson.  Each ran away with National Player of the Year honors in that year.  If we call that a wash, then it comes down to 1973 and 1974.

In 1973, the edge clearly goes to Walton.  He was national player of the year in a landslide, and he had probably the greatest championship game of all time with 44 points on 21-for-22 shooting against Memphis to cap a 30-0 season.  Thompson was a first team All-American but not a serious challenger for player of the year.  However, I do think there are some mitigating factors.  Walton had been national POY the season before, and he played for a program that had won six straight national championships and went 175-5 over those seasons.  It’s impossible to overstate the amount of momentum there was for Walton to win that award again, assuming the Bruins were successful, which they were.  Thompson was certainly known by reputation, but he had never played a varsity game before that season.  Considering the circumstances, I doubt it was possible for Thompson to have won over Walton.  He averaged 25 points and 8 rebounds on 57% from the floor and 82% from the line and was named ACC Player of the Year for a team that went undefeated.  What else could he have done? If he had averaged 35 instead of 25, would he have beaten Walton?  I doubt it.  So while I do think we have to give Walton an edge, I don’t think it’s as much of an edge as the voting totals would imply.

In 1974, I say the edge goes to Thompson.  It starts with the fact that NC State won on the floor.  NC State slew the dragon and stopped UCLA’s run of seven straight championships. Thompson led the way and was named the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player.  The voters for national honors started to recognize Thompson’s greatness.  It’s interesting to contrast the AP and the UPI player of the year balloting.  The UPI was announced in early March, which means the votes were taken before the end of the regular season.  Walton won easily.  But the AP vote was announced on April 2, after the NCAA Tournament.  Thompson won by 43 votes.  So the best vote we have, from the most credible organization, and the one that accounts for the entire season, went to Thompson.  Walton had won national POY in a landslide the previous two years.  He was already considered one of the greatest college players of all time.  Consider how easy it would have been for the voters to simply vote for him again and the excellence required for someone to overcome that.  Only another all-time great could do it.  That’s David Thompson.

The one disappointment of Thompson’s career was how it ended.  NC State, Maryland, and North Carolina were three of the best teams in the country in 1975.  After getting swept by Maryland in the regular season, the Wolfpack snuck by them in the ACC Tournament semifinals.  Thompson scored 30 points in the first 30 minutes but then cramped up and was unable to finish the game. How much the injury carried over to the final is hard to say, but he had a subpar performance as Carolina pulled out a 70-66 win.  This was the first year that the ACC got an at-large team into the NCAA Tournament, but the powers that be selected Maryland instead of the Wolfpack, and Thompson’s career was over.

2. Ralph Sampson, Virginia, 1980-1983

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

Ralph Sampson arrived in Charlottesville in the fall of 1979.  At that time, Virginia had been in the ACC for 26 years, and what did they have to show for it?  Two winning records in conference play and one NCAA Tournament appearance with zero wins.  Of the 130 first team All-ACC performers between 1954 and 1979, only six were from UVa (Buzz Wilkinson twice, Herb Busch, Chip Conner, Barry Parkhill, Jeff Lamp).  Up to that point, UVa as a program was worse than Clemson, which is saying something.

But Terry Holland had something brewing.  He coached the Cavaliers to their first ACC Tournament title in 1976 behind Wally Walker.  The next year, the Cavaliers finished last in the regular season, then very nearly pulled off another tournament run before falling to Carolina in the final.  1978 marked the debut of Jeff Lamp, and Virginia started to climb the ACC standings.  So when Sampson arrived, there was already optimism around the program. 

Sampson had a great freshman year, but his impact on the team was not as much as might have been expected. The Cavaliers actually dropped from 8-6 in the league to 7-7.  You can see his impact reflected in their team statistics. Virginia went from a smallish team that played fast and relied on forcing turnovers to a slower-paced team with very good FG% defense and strong rebounding margin, but the turnover margin went in the wrong direction.  It seems that it took a year for them to figure out exactly how to play with Sampson and best utilize his skills.  Sampson averaged 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 4.6 blocks per game.  He easily outpointed Sidney Lowe for ACC Rookie of the Year.  (As an aside, his season total of 157 blocks would be tied for 20th most all-time in a season in NCAA Division I, but I guess they didn’t officially count blocks until some time later.)

For the next three years, Virginia was one of the best teams in the country, and Sampson was at the center, literally and figuratively.  In 1981, the Cavaliers started 22-0 and were ranked #1.  Sampson was a year older and a year better, Jeff Lamp was still doing his thing, and the addition of Othell Wilson improved the Cavaliers’ ballhandling and defense.  Virginia advanced to the Final Four where they lost to North Carolina behind Al Wood’s incredible 39-point performance.  It was a breakthrough year for the program.  The only blemish was an inexplicable blowout in the ACC Tournament semifinals at the hands of Maryland.  Sampson was named National Player of the Year over DePaul’s Mark Aguirre and BYU’s Danny Ainge by both the AP and UPI in votes that were competitive, but not close.

1982 followed a similar pattern.  Virginia started out 24-1 and was again ranked #1 in the country before losing at Maryland in the last game of the regular season.  North Carolina was neck-and-neck with the Cavaliers all year.  After splitting their regular season matchups, the Tar Heels eked out an ugly 47-45 win in the ACC Tournament final.  Considering the Tar Heels were the best team in the country, this was perhaps excusable, but what wasn’t excusable was the Cavaliers’ Sweet 16 loss to UAB.  However, looking back, there were some mitigating circumstances.  First of all, the game was played in Birmingham on the Blazers’ home court.  Now that’s ridiculous.  There is no way that a #1 seed should be playing a road game in the regionals.  In addition, first team All-ACC performer Othell Wilson was hurt and played just four minutes.  With a healthy Othell Wilson and a reasonable draw, Virginia probably would’ve been in the Final Four again.  But they weren’t.  Coupled with the disappointments from the previous two ACC Tournaments, they started to gain a “can’t win the big one” reputation.  Sampson was again named National Player of the Year over DePaul’s Terry Cummings, and this time the votes were not close.

In 1983, Virginia was preseason #1.  They added Maine transfer Rick Carlisle to their core group.  They went 25-3 in the regular season, with two losses to UNC and the infamous Chaminade loss.  Going into the ACC Tournament they were ranked second behind the Phi Slamma Jamma Houston Cougars.  The Cavaliers demolished their first two opponents by 33 and 29 points and figured to have gotten a break when NC State upset North Carolina in the other semifinal.  But the Wolfpack surprised everyone by upsetting the Cavaliers in the final, flushing Sampson’s last chance to bring home an ACC Tournament title.  Virginia was sent West as the #1 seed in that region.  The main competition was expected to come from PAC-10 champions UCLA, but the Bruins were upset by Utah.  Virginia survived a couple of tight games to advance to the regional final, where much to everyone’s surprise, NC State was waiting for the Cavaliers again.  And we all know what happened; the Wolfpack broke Sampson’s heart one last time with a 63-62 win.  The Cavaliers shot 63% from the field.  How do you shoot 63% and lose?  Answer: -11 in turnover margin and 10-19 from the line.  Time and again during Sampson’s tenure, the Cavaliers were done in by missing clutch free throws.  Sampson received another consolation prize as he was named ACC and National Player of the Year for a third time (although the ACC POY vote was surprisingly close with Michael Jordan).

How, then, do we summarize Sampson’s career?  As a three-time national player of the year, he has to be regarded as one of the greatest players in the history of college basketball.  And yet for many fans, his name is synonymous with unfulfilled promise and missed opportunity. Is it fair? I think we can attribute it to a little bit of bad luck, a little bit of running into the wrong team at the wrong time, and some genuine failure to perform in the biggest moments.  One of the conclusions I have come to in reflecting on 1983 is that NC State was pretty doggone good.  Call them a Cinderella if you want, but look at who they had.  A couple of NBA players in Sidney Lowe and Thurl Bailey, a great shooter in Dereck Whittenburg, a future Top 100 player in Lorenzo Charles. Those upsets over Virginia and everyone else weren’t as surprising as they were portrayed at the time.  In addition, Sampson’s supporting cast wasn’t good enough.  Othell Wilson was a nice player, Rick Carlisle was a nice player, but they did not have a real complement to Sampson after Jeff Lamp graduated.  Opponents in the postseason were able to design defenses around smothering Sampson and making the other players beat them, and they couldn’t do it.

3. Christian Laettner, Duke, 1989-1992

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

Christian Laettner. For me personally, I don’t think there’s any ACC player who conjures up as many powerful memories. His time at Duke corresponded exactly with my high school years, the time when my interest in ACC basketball was at its highest. For me he was a kind of basketball version of Ric Flair – the villain you love to hate. For whatever reason, what sticks out to me most with Laettner, besides the Kentucky shot I guess, is how he suddenly started shooting threes as a senior – and proceeded to knock down 56% of them. That season still ranks 13th all-time in NCAA Division I for three-point shooting percentage. He seems like the kind of guy who could pick up a bowling ball for the first time and roll a 300. He made everything look easy.

Any consideration of Laettner’s greatness has to deal with the question of how much weight to put on his NCAA Tournament performance.  Laettner is right up there with Bill Russell, Oscar Robertson, Lew Alcindor, and Bill Walton as the greatest March Madness performers ever.  He played in four Final Fours and three championship games, winning two.  His overall record in NCAA Tournament play was 21-2.  He is the tournament’s all-time leading scorer.  He was Most Outstanding Player of his region twice, and of the tournament once.  He won two tournament games on buzzer beaters.  He had the famous “perfect game” against Kentucky when he went 10-for-10 from the field and 10-for-10 from the line.  He had an incredible individual performance in 1991, leading the Blue Devils to a Final Four win over UNLV who had manhandled them the year before.  For his career, he shot over 60% from the field and 85% from the line in the NCAA Tournament.  I could go on.

One way I thought of looking at it is this.  Let’s pretend for a moment that Laettner had never played in the NCAA Tournament.  Where would he rank then?  My thinking is, he’d be somewhere in the mid-teens, maybe in the Johnny Dawkins/Danny Ferry range.  He was ACC and national player of the year as a senior, so that obviously counts for a lot.  As a junior, though, he was “only” second team All-America, and he didn’t win ACC POY either as that went to Rodney Monroe.  As a sophomore, he finished seventh in All-ACC voting, landing on second team.  It’s a pretty similar record to a Bias, Ferry, or Dawkins. Of course, one could argue that he was national player of the year precisely because of his NCAA Tournament performance – that his reputation was bolstered so much by his tournament exploits in 1990 and 1991 that it carried over into the voting in 1992.

So how much extra credit does he get for being the greatest NCAA Tournament performer of all time?  Well, a lot.  I started out with him fourth, behind Thompson, Sampson, and Duncan.  I still think in my heart of hearts that Duncan was better, but… there’s just too much there.  I have to put Laettner ahead.  Now I’m asking myself if he should be ahead of Sampson. I guess that’s going too far; Sampson wasn’t bad in the tournament, and he wasn’t playing with Bobby Hurley either.

Here’s a fun stat.  Laettner played in four regional finals.  Those are pretty big games, right?  I mean aside from winning the championship, making the Final Four is the most impactful and meaningful and memorable thing that a college basketball team can accomplish.  Well, in those four games, Laettner averaged 24.3 points on 91% from the field and 92% from the line, and won two of the games with buzzer beaters.  That’s not a typo – 91% from the field in those four games.

Laettner’s NCAA Tournament records of 23 games played and 407 total points seem unbreakable. 23 games is almost literally unbreakable; 24 games is the maximum possible over four years (excepting the dreaded play-in games) unless the tournament expands. And anyone good enough to score 407 points would never stay four years now. So I think Laettner’s record will stand forever.

4. Tim Duncan, Wake Forest, 1994-1997

2003 Top 50 List: Yes

Dan Collins List: Yes

Tim Duncan is probably the greatest defensive player in ACC history.  Him or Ralph Sampson, I guess.  Duncan, Sampson, Tree Rollins, and Shelden Williams, in that order, rank 1-2-3-5 in career blocks and 2-3-4-5 in career rebounds.

We associate Duncan with Randolph Childress, but they overlapped for only two seasons in 1994 and 1995.  1995 was the year for them to do something special if they were going to, and with their ACC Tournament performance, I suppose you could say they did.  I remember their loss to Oklahoma State in the Sweet 16 and how surprised I was.  But looking back, I shouldn’t have been that surprised.  Wake had Childress and Duncan, which is a lot, but not much else.  Tony Rutland, Ricky Peral, Jerry Braswell, Rusty LaRue, and Scooter Banks.  Rutland and Banks were okay I guess, but that’s not a lot of talent.  And they got a bit unlucky in their tournament draw; Oklahoma State was an underseeded #4.  According to the Simple Rating System on sports-reference.com, the Cowboys were the seventh-best team in the country.  I think I was just disappointed when Wake lost because I really enjoyed watching that team play.

What strikes me about Duncan’s record is how good the Deacs were in 1996 and 1997 considering the weak talent surrounding him.  Wake went 11-5 and 12-4 in the ACC and finished 9th in the AP poll both years.  Without Duncan, that’s a lower division ACC team.  I’m trying to think of another instance where one player elevated a team that much.  Len Bias, as great as he was, wasn’t able to lift his teams to the Top 10.  In 1998, without Duncan, the Deacs dropped from 24-7/11-5 to 16-14/7-9.  I think that’s about right; Duncan was worth 8 extra wins by himself. Duncan was first team All-America and ACC Player of the Year both years, and was consensus National Player of the Year as a senior.

Duncan’s 1997 rebounds per game average of 14.74 had not been equaled since in NCAA Division I – until Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe pulled down 15.2 in 2022.

In the past 35 years, roughly corresponding to the Mike Krzyzewski era at Duke but leaving out his first few years when they weren’t very good, here are the best records I could find against Coach K’s Duke teams:

  • Tim Duncan, 8-1 against Duke in his career (1994-1997)
  • Randoph Childress, 7-2 against Duke in his career (1991, 1993-1995)
  • Jeff McInnis, 6-0 against Duke in his career (1994-1996)
  • Tyler Hansbrough/Danny Green, 6-2 against Duke in their career (2006-2009)
  • Honorable mention, Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace, 4-0 against Duke in their career (1994-1995)

Duncan, Hansbrough/Green, and McInnis never lost at Cameron.  So far as I can tell, they are the only players of significance in this era who can say that (not counting Stackhouse and Wallace who played only two games).  Notice that most of these good records happened during the mid-1990s lean years, the forgettable era between the Laettner/Hurley/Grant Hill teams and the Battier/Brand teams.  These were the Blue Devils of Chris Collins, Jeff Capel, Greg Newton, Ricky Price, Steve Wojciechowski, and, of course, Pete Gaudet.