Tag: NCAA

As a reminder, here was my final bracket. I have color-coded it to illustrate how I did. Teams in blue were picked and seeded correctly; teams in brown were one seed line off; teams in red were two or more seed lines off, or not picked correctly at all.

1. UConn, Purdue, Houston, Iowa State
2. North Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette
3. Creighton, Baylor, Illinois, Auburn
4. Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Alabama
5. Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, Texas Tech
6. St. Mary’s, San Diego State, South Carolina, Clemson
7. Dayton, Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington State
8. Nebraska, Texas, Utah State, Boise State
9. Texas A&M, Colorado, Mississippi State, TCU
10. New Mexico, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Michigan State
11. Drake, Oregon, NC State, Grand Canyon
12. James Madison, McNeese, Samford, Duquesne
13. Vermont, Yale, College of Charleston, UAB
14. Akron, Oakland, Morehead State, Colgate
15. Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Long Beach State, Longwood
16. St. Peter’s, Stetson, Grambling, Montana State, Howard, Wagner

Adding it all up, I missed one team entirely, Oklahoma; I missed five other teams by 2 or 3 seed lines; 21 teams were off by one seed line; and 41 teams were perfect.

Is that good? One way to compare is at bracketmatrix.com. Their scoring system gives you three points for accurately predicting a team being in the field; two additional points for every team that is seeded correctly; and one additional point for every team that is seeded plus or minus one.

There are 226 brackets total brackets scored. My score was 345, which was tied for 54th. Not too shabby. Here are scores of some of the better known sites and experts:

• This year’s top score: 355
• Warren Nolan: 349
• Washington Post: 347
• The Barking Crow: 347
• FOX Sports: 345
• MUDVILLE ANALYTICS: 345
• SI.com: 344
• Bart Torvik: 344
• The Athletic: 341
• Jeff Borzello: 338
• Sporting News: 337
• Joe Lunardi/ESPN: 336
• USA Today: 332
• On3.com: 325
• Jerry Palm/CBS: 323

I’m happy with that. The only picks I would like to have back are picking Iowa State over Carolina, which I knew was wrong as I was doing it but couldn’t stop myself, and picking Gonzaga as a 7. My model said Gonzaga was a 6, but I was influenced by external forces to knock them down to a 7.

Now for some speculation about some of the other misses. With FAU, sometimes I get the sense that the committee has its mind made up prior to the conference tournament, and then they can’t be bothered to change it based on what actually happens. FAU lost to Temple, which is a really bad loss, and it doesn’t seem to have hurt them. Same thing with Florida and Kentucky, the committee seems to have ignored the SEC Tournament. The Nevada/Boise State situation (both received much worse seeds than expected) seems to be some kind of conspiracy against the Mountain West. There was speculation that the committee felt that the Mountain West was overrated because most of their Quad 1 wins were within the league. If that’s true, that would call into question the validity of the NET rating, but that’s a discussion for another time.

There is more evidence of the committee ignoring the results of conference tournaments. Look at the St. Peter’s/Longwood situation. Longwood has a much better resume than St. Peter’s. Why did they get a lower seed? Well, a good guess is that the team that was supposed to win the MAAC, Fairfield, did have a better resume than Longwood. You can imagine the committee had Fairfield on the 15 line, and when Fairfield was upset in the conference tournament, they just did not do the work to understand how St. Peter’s resume was different and change the seeds accordingly.

Bracketmatrix has been doing this for a long time and you can look at past results on his site. Lunardi is OK, Palm is below average, although both have had some good years and some bad ones. There are just a handful of prognosticators who have been above average for five consecutive years.

Last year was my first year, and I was well below average. I definitely got better this year. We’ll see next year if my improvement is real and sustainable.

This year’s bracket reveal went mostly according to expectations. The biggest surprise was definitely Virginia getting in. I did not see that coming at all, and I am struggling to figure out why they got in.

One interesting data point is from bracketmatrix.com. If you’re not familiar with that site, it’s an compilation of hundreds of bracket predictions. It includes all the well-known ones from Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, SI.com, USA Today, FOX Sports, etc., but it also includes predictions from people like me. Of the 200 bracket predictions on that site, only 20 of them had Virginia in. 135 brackets had Oklahoma in; 74 had St. John’s; 22 had Indiana State. St. John’s and Indiana State were my first two out.

Why did Virginia make it? There are essentially two possible answers: politics or resume. Perhaps they made it because Tony Bennett is well-connected, or perhaps the committee felt sorry for the ACC, or perhaps the Cavaliers enlisted Tom Sheehey to make selection committee chairman Charles McClelland an offer he couldn’t refuse… I don’t have any inside information about whether any of that is true, and I’m not going to speculate on it. For the sake of this post, I’m going to assume that the Cavaliers’ resume had something that the committee liked better than Indiana State, Oklahoma, and St. John’s. What was it?

The only thing that stands out in that regard is that Virginia ranked higher in what they call the Results-Based Metrics. There are five different “computer rankings” (if you’ll excuse the loose use of that term) that the committee looks at. Two of them are results-based, meaning their rankings look backward at what a team has done. You might think of these as the resume metrics. Three of them are predictive, meaning their rankings are forward-looking, i.e. what they expect a team to do in the future.

The predictive metrics are familiar to many fans: kenpom, Jeff Sagarin, and the ESPN BPI. The results-based metrics are not as well known. One of them is called the Kevin Pauga Index (KPI), and the other is called Strength of Record (SOR).

I don’t have a clear picture on how these metrics are calculated. Strength of Record is described as the probability that an average Top 25 team would have the team’s record or better, given the schedule. OK, I can kind of understand that intuitively, even if I don’t know exactly how it’s calculated. The Kevin Pauga Index is proprietary. According to ncaa.com:

KPI ranks every team’s wins and losses on a positive-to-negative scale, where the worst-possible loss receives a value of roughly around -1.0 and the best-possible win receives a value of roughly 1.0. KPI then averages these scores across a season to give a score to a team’s winning percentage. The formula uses opponent’s winning percentage, opponent’s strength of schedule, scoring margin, pace of game, location, and opponent’s KPI ranking.

Alrighty then… in any case, whatever these metrics are, they favor Virginia. Here is how the bubble teams compare in these metrics:

Team	KPI	SOR	Average
Virginia	38	32	35
Oklahoma	50	28	39
Indiana State	40	40	40
Colorado State	28	56	42
Pitt	55	48	51.5
St. John’s	71	45	58

I don’t pretend to have enough information to know what is going on here, but I will engage in a little speculation. One of the many ways to evaluate a team is, what was their record, and what was their strength of schedule. If Team A and Team B have a similar strength of schedule, and Team A has a better record, then it follows that Team A is more deserving, right?

That reasoning is simplistic, but there is a certain persuasiveness to it. So I decided to look at Virginia compared to other teams with a similar strength of schedule. Of course I don’t know exactly how these ratings calculate strength of schedule, so I will use kenpom’s. Here is a selected group of teams with similar strength of schedule and record to Virginia:

Team	SoS Rank	W-L
Colorado State	65	24-10
Kentucky	66	23-9
Oregon	67	23-11
Nebraska	68	23-10
Duke	75	24-8
Colorado	76	24-10
Virginia	77	23-10
Washington State	84	24-9

Note, every team in this group made the tournament. And Virginia seems to fit right in. They are almost identical to Colorado. They compare reasonably well to Washington State (one game worse record, but tougher schedule).

Again, this is speculation on my part. But best I can tell, these resume metrics, especially Strength of Record, are doing something like this. Virginia did beat Florida and Texas A&M, and they did go 13-7 in the ACC – better than Pitt, Wake, Clemson, or NC State.

That’s the only good thing about Virginia’s resume that I can find. Their Quadrant 1 record was 2-7, so that wasn’t it. They look terrible on the predictive metrics, and that’s because, well, getting blown out is very bad for your predictive metrics. They lost to Wisconsin by 24, Memphis by 23, Notre Dame by 22, NC State by 16, Wake by 19, Virginia Tech by 34, and Duke by 25.

Oklahoma in particular has reason to complain. Do you realize, they did not lose a single game below Quad 1? There were undefeated in Quad 2/3/4 games. They are the only team in recent memory to go undefeated against Quad 2/3/4 and fail to get an at-large bid. Perhaps they were dinged for their non-conference strength of schedule, which was ranked only 262. But that’s deceptive; they actually played Iowa, USC, Providence, Arkansas, and UNC and went 4-1 in those games. It’s not their fault that USC and Arkansas turned out to be bad this year. What really caused that 262 ranking is that they also played four of the worst teams in Division I – Mississippi Valley State, Texas-Rio Grande Valley, Arkansas Pine Bluff, and Central Arkansas. Who cares? They played five major conference teams and a bunch of cupcakes. That’s a completely normal schedule. Should it matter that their cupcakes were even softer than everyone else’s?

Look, I’m not crying for these other teams. Their resumes were deeply flawed as well, and these are fine distinctions that have to be drawn. I personally am an advocate of emphasizing the resume more and the predictive metrics less. But the idea that some guy Kevin Pauga is the reason that Virginia is in and St. John’s is out… can you blame the coaches for being frustrated with that?

Wow. What a day for college basketball and what a day for bracketology. In yesterday’s post, my last four teams in were New Mexico, St. John’s, Seton Hall, and Pitt. Then I talked about three possible bid-stealing scenarios with NC State, Oregon, and Florida Atlantic.

Well, New Mexico took the suspense out of their selection by winning the Mountain West tournament. And then St. John’s, Seton Hall, Indiana State, Virginia, Providence, and anybody else hanging on to hopes of an at-large bid watched in horror as their bids vanished. First Florida Atlantic was upset by Temple in a battle of the Owls, ensuring that a second team from the American would get a bid. Next NC State seized a bid, completing its improbable run through the ACC. And Oregon made it a clean sweep for the bid-stealers by winning the Pac-12 title over Colorado.

As a result, there has never been less suspense about who is going to make the field. It seems like the distance between the last teams in (Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Northwestern, Oklahoma) and the first teams out (St. John’s, Seton Hall, Virginia, Pitt, Indiana State) is vast. Is there room for a surprise?

I don’t see much. The only teams with any hope are probably Indiana State and St. John’s. As for Indiana State, it’s very difficult to compare a really good mid-major with a mediocre major conference team. It becomes a matter of philosophy as much as numbers. It’s possible the committee could choose philosophy over resume and pick the Sycamores. But I doubt it.

I suppose that if the committee shows a bias towards recency and the “eye test”, they could choose to go with St. John’s or even Pitt over Northwestern, Oklahoma, or Michigan State. But I don’t have any reason to believe they will.

At the top of the bracket, the only suspense left is whether Carolina will hang on to the fourth #1 seed. It seems like the consensus is that they will, but I am going to be a contrarian here and say that it’s going to Iowa State. Carolina’s 9-3 Quad 1 record is better then ISU’s 10-6, but ISU went 7-1 against Quad 2 versus Carolina’s 7-4. Then there’s the 28-point beatdown the Cyclones put on arguably the best team in the country yesterday while the Tar Heels were losing to NC State.

As I write this, I sense that I will probably be wrong, because it always seems like the committee gives comparatively little weight to the conference tournaments. But surely ISU winning the Big 12 in such dominant fashion counts for something. We will find out.

So without further ado… my final bracket:

1. UConn, Purdue, Houston, Iowa State
2. North Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette
3. Creighton, Baylor, Illinois, Auburn
4. Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Alabama
5. Florida, Wisconsin, BYU, Texas Tech
6. St. Mary’s, San Diego State, South Carolina, Clemson
7. Dayton, Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington State
8. Nebraska, Texas, Utah State, Boise State
9. Texas A&M, Colorado, Mississippi State, TCU
10. New Mexico, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Michigan State
11. Drake, Oregon, NC State, Grand Canyon
12. James Madison, McNeese, Samford, Duquesne
13. Vermont, Yale, College of Charleston, UAB
14. Akron, Oakland, Morehead State, Colgate
15. Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Long Beach State, Longwood
16. St. Peter’s, Stetson, Grambling, Montana State, Howard, Wagner

Last Four Byes: Colorado, Mississippi State, TCU, Florida Atlantic

Last Four In: Colorado State, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Michigan State

First Six Out: St. John’s, Seton Hall, Pitt, Indiana State, Virginia, Providence

Automatic Bids (14 of 32 decided)

• Morehead State, Ohio Valley
• Longwood, Big South
• Drake, Missouri Valley
• Stetson, Atlantic Sun
• James Madison, Sun Belt
• Samford, Southern Conference
• Charleston, CAA
• Oakland, Horizon
• Wagner, Northeast
• St. Mary’s, West Coast
• South Dakota State, Summit
• McNeese State, Southland
• Colgate, Patriot
• Montana State, Big Sky

#1 Seeds

Carolina winning along with Tennessee and Arizona losing would seem to lock up the last #1 seed for the Tar Heels. The only scenario I am wondering about is if Carolina loses today and Iowa State wins the Big 12, do the Cyclones have a chance? Based on resume, I would say they do.

Bubble Watch

If you read yesterday’s update, you saw that I had 11 teams on the bubble competing for 7 bids. Of those 11 teams, 3 of them won their way off the bubble yesterday: Colorado, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M. And one team, Ohio State, lost its way off the bubble.

Just to level set us, here are the teams I consider to be locks for an at-large bid at this point:

• Big 12 (9): Houston, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, BYU, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma
• Big 10 (6): Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern
• Big East (3): UConn, Marquette, Creighton
• ACC (3): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
• SEC (8): Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Mississippi State
• Pac-12 (3): Arizona, Washington State, Colorado
• Mountain West (5): San Diego State, Nevada, Utah State, Boise State, Colorado State
• West Coast (1): Gonzaga
• A-10 (1): Dayton
• American (1): Florida Atlantic

That’s a total of 40 bids. For all but the West Coast and A-10, I am assuming that the automatic bid will come from this group. So subtract one automatic bid for the other eight conferences, and that leaves 32 at-large bids locked out of 36. So that leaves four bids remaining.

I have seven teams realistically competing for those last four bids: St. John’s, New Mexico, Pitt, Virginia, Indiana State, Seton Hall, and Providence.

Of those teams, New Mexico helped itself the most yesterday with another Quad 1 win over Colorado State. New Mexico is also the only team on that list who is still playing; they can erase all doubt by beating San Diego State today in the Mountain West final.

St. John’s, Pitt, and Providence had “good losses”, if there is such a thing, each losing to a Top 10 team. St. John’s and Pitt looked really good in losing, Providence less so.

Seton Hall and Indiana State did not play.

And Virginia, of course, lost a heartbreaker to NC State.

Yesterday, I ranked them this way:

1. St. John’s
2. Seton Hall
3. Virginia
4. Pitt
5. CUT LINE
6. Indiana State
7. New Mexico
8. Providence

After yesterday’s games, I’m going with:

1. New Mexico – 90% chance
2. St. John’s – 85% chance
3. Seton Hall – 60% chance
4. Pitt – 55% chance
5. CUT LINE
6. Indiana State – 45% chance
7. Virginia – 40% chance
8. Providence – 25% chance

As with any year, one of the important factors will be how much weight the committee give to the “eye test” vs. the resume. In particular, St. John’s and Pitt are certainly playing like tournament teams, and their predictive metrics are very good. But their resumes, especially St. John’s, are not as impressive as the eye test.

The other wildcard is what the committee does with Indiana State. As we’ve discussed before, comparing a team like the Sycamores with a major conference team is really an impossible task. It comes down to a decision based on philosophy and what the committee wants to reward. If you’re wondering if there is precedent for a team like Indiana State getting an at-large bid, look no further than another Missouri Valley team, Drake, in 2021. They received an at-large bid with a resume that looks very similar to the Sycamores.

The other thing to watch is bid-stealers that can reduce the number of available bids. There are three. NC State in the ACC; Oregon in the Pac-12; and anybody other that Florida Atlantic in the American. If any of those teams gets an automatic bid, somebody gets bumped. My probabilities above are based on the assumption that nobody gets bumped.

The main disagreements I have with Lunardi are with New Mexico and Pitt. Lunardi has New Mexico as the last team in, still below St. John’s and Seton Hall. But with two Quad 1 wins in two days, I think they are a little better than that.

Lunardi has Pitt still behind Virginia and Indiana State. If you want to put them behind Indiana State, fine, but I don’t see putting them behind Virginia. I think their resume is better than Virginia (arguable, but that’s my opinion) and they certainly look better than Virginia right now.

Keep in mind that Lunardi is also assuming that South Florida is getting the automatic bid from the American, so he is assuming one less at-large bid available than I am.

One other thing to watch is that in past years, it seems the committee pays less attention to what happens in conference tournaments than you might think. It’s as if they have their bracket set by Friday and can’t be bothered to change it based on what happens Saturday and Sunday. I wonder if that is factoring into Lunardi’s thinking in terms of not putting New Mexico higher.

Automatic Bids to be Decided Today:

• America East, Vermont vs. UMass-Lowell, 11 AM
• ACC, UNC vs. NC State, 8:30 PM
• Big East, UConn vs. Marquette, 6:30 PM
• Big 12, Houston vs. Iowa State, 6:00 PM
• Big West, Long Beach State vs. UC-Davis, 9:30 PM
• Conference USA, UTEP vs. Western Kentucky, 8:30 PM
• MAAC, St. Peter’s vs. Fairfield, 7:30 PM
• MAC, Kent State vs. Akron, 7:30 PM
• MEAC, Howard vs. Delaware State, 1:00 PM
• Mountain West, San Diego State vs. New Mexico, 6:00 PM
• Pac-12, Oregon vs. Colorado, 9:00 PM
• SWAC, Grambling vs. Texas Southern, 9:30 PM
• WAC, Grand Canyon vs. Texas-Arlington, 11:30 PM

Automatic Bids (14 of 32 decided):

• Morehead State, Ohio Valley
• Longwood, Big South
• Drake, Missouri Valley
• Stetson, Atlantic Sun
• James Madison, Sun Belt
• Samford, Southern Conference
• Charleston, CAA
• Oakland, Horizon
• Wagner, Northeast
• St. Mary’s, West Coast
• South Dakota State, Summit
• McNeese State, Southland
• Colgate, Patriot
• Montana State, Big Sky

Bubble Team Action Yesterday:

Won and Removed All Doubt:

• Colorado State, W 85-78 vs. Nevada

Lost and Probably Eliminated:

• Memphis, L 71-65 vs. Wichita St.
• Utah, L 72-58 vs. Colorado
• Iowa, L 90-78 vs. Ohio St.
• Kansas State, L 76-57 vs. Iowa St.
• Cincinnati, L 68-56 vs. Baylor
• Wake Forest, L 81-69 vs. Pitt
• Villanova, L 71-65 vs. Marquette

I can’t say with absolute certainty that Wake and Villanova are out, but I’d say < 10% chance.

Another consequential thing that happened yesterday is that Dayton lost. That means that someone else is going to get the Atlantic 10 automatic bid, Dayton will get an at-large bid, and there is therefore one less at-large bid available for everyone else. In my bracket, Indiana State is the victim who drops out.

I would say at this point, the bubble consists of the following teams, which I present in rank order:

1. Colorado
2. St. John’s
3. Seton Hall
4. Mississippi State
5. Texas A&M
6. Virginia
7. Pitt
8. CUT LINE IS HERE
9. Indiana State
10. New Mexico
11. Providence
12. Ohio State

All of these teams are still playing except for Seton Hall and Indiana State.

Today’s Bubble Games

Win and In:

• Colorado vs. Washington State. I think Colorado will make it anyway, but this win would remove all doubt.
• Texas A&M vs. Kentucky. I have them a few spots higher than Lunardi.
• Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
• St. John’s vs. UConn

Win Today, Then Win Again:

• Ohio State vs. Illinois. Probably need to get to the tournament final, but if they were to win today and Providence, Pitt, and New Mexico all lose, then it would get interesting.

Win and Maybe In, Lose and Probably Out:

• Providence vs. Marquette. It would be the Friars’ 7th Quad 1 win. No team with seven Quad 1 wins has ever been left out of the field as far as I can tell.
• Pitt vs. North Carolina. Pitt really looks like a tournament team. I think Lunardi is underselling them. If they lose today, I wouldn’t rule them out, but I’d say their chances are no better than 25%.
• New Mexico vs. Colorado State

And the Rest:

• Virginia vs. NC State. Most of the teams Virginia is competing with have a Quad 1-A type game today. The Cavaliers do not. That makes it hard to pin down their prospects. Even if they win, they could get leapfrogged by Pitt, New Mexico, or Providence if any of them win. On the other hand, even if they lose, they could maintain their position if all the teams below them lose.
• Indiana State. The poor Sycamores can only sit and watch. What they really need is for Providence, Pitt, New Mexico, and Ohio State to all lose today. Which could totally happen.
• Seton Hall. Not a good showing against St. John’s yesterday. I think the Pirates have done enough, but I will have some doubt until I see their name on the board on Sunday.

Automatic Bids (11 of 32 decided):

• Morehead State, Ohio Valley
• Longwood, Big South
• Drake, Missouri Valley
• Stetson, Atlantic Sun
• James Madison, Sun Belt
• Samford, Southern Conference
• Charleston, CAA
• Oakland, Horizon
• Wagner, Northeast
• St. Mary’s, West Coast
• South Dakota State, Summit

Today’s Games of Consequence

Tournament Finals:

• Southland – McNeese St. vs. Nicholls
• Patriot – Colgate vs. Lehigh
• Big Sky – Montana vs. Montana St.

Win and In:

• TCU vs. Oklahoma. Both of these teams are probably in anyway, but today’s loser will be nervous on Selection Sunday. Especially if it’s TCU.
• Colorado State vs. San Jose State

Definitely Out Without This Win, Not Necessarily In With It:

• Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame. Probably have to beat Pitt on Thursday as well.
• Providence vs. Georgetown
• New Mexico vs. Air Force
• Villanova vs. DePaul

Win Today, Then Win Again:

• Virginia Tech vs. Florida State. The Hokies have to beat North Carolina on Thursday to get themselves into the mix.
• UCF vs. BYU. I doubt that it’s possible for UCF to get an at-large bid, but the Big 12 Tourney does present an opportunity to rack up several Quad 1 wins.
• Kansas State vs. Texas. See above, the Big 12 tourney is a Quad 1 gold mine.
• Cincinnati vs. Kansas. Ditto.
• Utah vs. Arizona State. I doubt there is a path for the Utes to get an at-large bid, but I can’t completely rule it out.
• Butler vs. Xavier. Same situation, I doubt there is a path for Butler, but if they win today, they get a shot at UConn tomorrow.

Tickets Punched

• Morehead State, Ohio Valley champions
• Longwood, Big South champions
• Drake, Missouri Valley champions
• Stetson, Atlantic Sun champions

Top Seeds

Obviously you have Purdue, UConn, and Houston. For the fourth #1, I would rank them Tennessee, Arizona, North Carolina right now, but it’s very close. If one of those three teams wins its conference tournament and the other two do not, that team will get it. If Iowa State were to win the Big 12 tournament and none of the other three teams won their tournament, that would be an interesting decision.

Bubble Watch

I feel reasonably confident that the first three teams I have listed as “Last Four Byes” – Seton Hall, Colorado, Mississippi State – are going to get in.

I feel somewhat confident that the teams I have listed as “Next Four Out” – Ohio State, Memphis, Utah, and Iowa – are not going to get in.

That leaves nine teams – Texas A&M, my “Last Four In” and “First Four Out” – fighting for at most four spots, assuming no bid stealers.

I have Texas A&M at the top of that list due to their win quality. 11 wins against Quad 1 and 2 is just too much to leave out, considering the competition. But 2-4 against Quad 3 gives me pause.

I’m not sure that Indiana State is receiving serious consideration as an at-large candidate, and I understand why, but I think there is precedent for a team like them getting in, for example Drake 2021.

Villanova‘s record is 17-14. They must win a game in the Big East Tournament, or they have no shot. I don’t see the committee putting them in at 17-15.

ACC Watch

Virginia, Pitt, and Wake Forest are extremely close. In the NET, it goes Wake, Pitt, Virginia. In the results-based metrics, it goes Virginia, Pitt, Wake. In the predictive metrics, it goes Wake, Pitt, Virginia. Each team has 2 Quad 1 wins. Virginia’s Quad 2/3 record is similar to Pitt’s, perhaps a shade better, while Wake is only 6-6 against Quad 2.

Pitt and Wake are probably going to play each other in the ACC Tournament. It’s tempting to call that an elimination game, and it may well be. Virginia is probably going to play Clemson. That game could secure the Cavaliers’ spot in the field. If they lose… I don’t know. It will depend on what the other teams do.

Elevator Report

Team	Prior Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Baylor	2	3	L 78-68 at Texas Tech (NET 30, Quad 1-A)
Creighton	3	2	W 69-67 at Villanova (NET 33, Quad 1-A)
Duke	3	4	L 84-79 vs. North Carolina (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky	4	3	W 85-81 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Florida	5	7	L 79-78 at Vanderbilt (NET 203, Quad 3)
Wisconsin	5	6	L 78-70 at Purdue (NET 2, Quad 1-A)
Dayton	6	5	W 91-86 vs. VCU (NET 76, Quad 3)
San Diego State	6	7	L 79-77 vs. Boise State (NET 23, Quad 1-B)
Texas Tech	7	5	W 78-68 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Gonzaga	7	6	Idle
Washington State	7	8	Idle
St. Mary’s	7	8	Idle
Nebraska	8	7	W 85-70 at Michigan (NET 132, Quad 2)
Texas	8	7	W 94-80 vs. Oklahoma (NET 43, Quad 2)
Michigan State	8	9	L 65-64 at Indiana (NET 93, Quad 2)
TCU	9	10	L 79-77 vs UCF (NET 61, Quad 2)
Florida Atlantic	9	8	W 92-84 vs. Memphis (NET 69, Quad 2)
Mississippi State	9	11	L 93-89 vs. South Carolina (NET 49, Quad 2)
Northwestern	10	9	W 90-66 vs. Minnesota (NET 86, Quad 3)
Boise State	10	9	W 79-77 at San Diego State (NET 20, Quad 1-A)
Colorado	11	10	W 73-57 at Oregon State (NET 161, Quad 3)
Villanova	11	Out	L 69-67 vs. Creighton (NET 11, Quad 1-A)
New Mexico	11	Out	L 87-85 at Utah State (NET 32, Quad 1-A)
Texas A&M	Out	11	W 86-60 at Ole Miss (NET 90, Quad 2)
Pitt	Out	12	W 81-73 vs. NC State (NET 81, Quad 3)
High Point	14	Out	Lost in Big South tourney
Morehead State	15	14	Won OVC tourney
Eastern Washington	15	Out	Lost in Big Sky tourney
Quinnipiac	16	15	In MAAC tourney
Weber State	Out	15	In Big Sky tourney
Longwood	Out	16	Won Big South tourney

The Bracket (automatic bids in bold, tickets punched in CAPS)

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
2. Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Creighton
3. Marquette, Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky
4. Duke, Auburn, Illinois, Alabama
5. BYU, Texas Tech, Clemson, Dayton
6. Nevada, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Gonzaga
7. Texas, Florida, San Diego State, Nebraska
8. Utah State, Washington State, St. Mary’s, Florida Atlantic
9. Boise State, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Northwestern
10. Colorado State, TCU, Colorado, Seton Hall
11. Mississippi State, Texas A&M, St. John’s, Virginia, DRAKE, Princeton
12. Indiana State, Pitt, Grand Canyon, James Madison
13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14. College of Charleston, Louisiana Tech, MOREHEAD STATE, Akron
15. Oakland, Colgate, Weber State, Quinnipiac
16. South Dakota St., LONGWOOD, STETSON, Norfolk State, Merrimack, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Last Four In: St. John’s, Virginia, Indiana State, Pitt

First Four Out: Wake Forest, New Mexico, Providence, Villanova

Next Four Out: Ohio State, Memphis, Utah, Iowa

Headlines

• Nevada and Florida strengthen their positions with Quad 1-A wins
• Colorado moves into the field with a Quad 1 win at Oregon
• Wake Forest loses a game they couldn’t afford to lose

Top Seeds

Tennessee has it for now, but Arizona is close, and don’t count out North Carolina and even Iowa State. The conference tournaments will tell the tale.

Bubble Watch

Most of the teams listed as 9 or 10 seeds below are near-locks at this point. That includes Oklahoma, TCU, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Boise State, and Colorado State. I suppose if Colorado State lost to Air Force on Saturday and then lost in the first round of the conference tournament, they might be in trouble. So we will stick with the term “near-locks” to refer to this group. They are in unless something really comes apart in these last couple of games.

After that, we get into the real bubble teams. These are the teams that if the Selection Show were today, I would not be shocked if they did not get in. Here is how I currently rank them:

1. Seton Hall – huge win over Villanova. Their metrics are bad, but I think the win quality is too much to ignore.
2. Virginia – they helped themselves this week by not playing while others around them lost.
3. Colorado – their metrics are great, but the committee needed another Quad 1 win to justify putting them in. The Buffaloes delivered at Oregon. Careful with their last game at Oregon State who just beat Utah.
4. St. John’s – if they beat Georgetown on Saturday, they will have won their last five.
5. Villanova – monster game against Creighton tomorrow. A win would make them a lock. A loss will drop them to 17-14 overall. Another loss in the Big East tourney would be 15, and that may be just too many losses. Since 2016, only two teams with 15 losses have received at-large bids: Alabama 2018 and Florida 2019. Both of those teams were 19-15.
6. New Mexico – huge game at Utah State on Saturday. A chance to win their way in. A loss doesn’t mean they’re out, but the odds get longer.
7. Drake – on to the Missouri Valley tournament. If they meet Indiana State in the final, will the loser get in? That is the question. They may benefit from the teams above them losing (Villanova, New Mexico).
8. CUT LINE IS HERE
9. Providence – playing UConn at home tomorrow. In if they win, probably not if they lose.
10. Pitt – must win game vs. NC State. NC State at home isn’t that great of a win, but the thing is, Villanova, New Mexico, and Providence all have extremely difficult games. If those three lose and the Panthers win, does that move them into the field? I think maybe it will.
11. Texas A&M – they just won’t die. Six Quad 1 wins is a lot. Then again, four Quad 3 losses is a lot too. If they win at Ole Miss on Saturday, they have a shot.
12. Utah – withering like cut grass. Tomorrow night’s game at Oregon could be the final nail – or it could be their path to get back in the mix.
13. Wake Forest – the Georgia Tech loss just about finished them off.
14. Iowa – no chance to make it unless they beat Illinois on Sunday.

ACC Watch

• Wake Forest is dead in my opinion unless they win the ACC Tournament. I don’t think beating Clemson will be enough. I guess a win over Clemson and then a win over Carolina or Duke in the tournament might do it.
• Virginia I think is going to squeak in so long as they don’t stumble against Georgia Tech on Saturday. Lunardi has them as the last team in. I think they are a little better than that.
• Pitt has a shot. At a minimum, they have to beat NC State on Saturday, and then reach the semis of the ACC Tournament. I’m not saying they’re in if they do that. Probably need to reach the finals of the tournament, and then you may as well just win the darn thing.

Elevator Report

Team	Prior Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Marquette	2	3	L 74-67 vs. UConn (NET 3, Quad 1-A)
Baylor	3	2	W 93-85 vs. Texas (NET 26, Quad 1-B)
BYU	4	5	L 68-63 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky	5	4	W 93-77 vs. Vanderbilt (NET 214, Quad 4)
San Diego State	5	6	L 62-58 at UNLV (NET 75, Quad 1-B)
Florida	6	5	W 105-87 vs. Alabama (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Washington State	6	7	L 74-68 vs. Washington (NET 66, Quad 2)
Texas	7	8	L 93-85 at Baylor (NET 13, Quad 1-A)
Boise State	8	10	L 76-66 vs. Nevada (NET 34, Quad 2)
Nevada	8	6	W 76-66 at Boise State (NET 28, Quad 1-A)
Northwestern	9	10	L 53-49 at Michigan State (NET 23, Quad 1-A)
Michigan State	9	8	W 53-49 vs. Northwestern (NET 52, Quad 2)
TCU	10	9	W 93-81 at West Virginia (NET 147, Quad 3)
FAU	10	9	W 80-76 at North Texas (NET 86, Quad 2)
Villanova	10	11	L 66-56 at Seton Hall (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Seton Hall	11	10	W 66-56 vs. Villanova (NET 31, Quad 2)
Utah	11	Out	L 92-85 at Oregon State (NET 159, Quad 3)
Colorado	Out	11	W 79-75 at Oregon (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Lipscomb	16	Out	Lost in Atlantic Sun tourney
Stetson	Out	16	Advanced to finals of Atlantic Sun tourney

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
2. Arizona, Iowa State, North Carolina, Baylor
3. Kansas, Marquette, Creighton, Duke
4. Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky, Illinois
5. BYU, Clemson, Florida, Wisconsin
6. Dayton, Nevada, San Diego State, South Carolina
7. Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Washington State, St. Mary’s
8. Nebraska, Utah State, Michigan State, Texas
9. Oklahoma, TCU, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi State
10. Northwestern, Boise State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
11. Virginia, Colorado, St. John’s, Villanova, New Mexico, Drake
12. Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14. College of Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Akron, High Point
15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
16. Quinnipiac, South Dakota St., Stetson, Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado State, Seton Hall, Virginia, Colorado

Last Four In: St. John’s, Villanova, New Mexico, Drake

First Four Out: Providence, Pitt, Texas A&M, Utah

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Iowa, Richmond, Ohio State

Headlines

• Tennessee grabs a #1 seed with a win at Alabama
• Gonzaga moves into lock status with a win at St. Mary’s
• Providence drops out of the field after losing at home to Villanova
• Drake moves into the field – for now

Top Seeds

Tennessee leapfrogs Arizona, for now, with their win at Alabama. The last #1 seed is still between Tennessee, Arizona, and North Carolina and will come down to the conference tournaments.

Bubble Watch

Let me start with this. Gonzaga is in. They are a lock and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

Colorado State is moving towards lock territory. I think they would get in even if they lose their last game – but I wouldn’t advise it.

After Colorado State, I rank them:

1. Villanova – big win at Providence
2. St. John’s – idle
3. Virginia – looked terrible against Duke, hanging by a thread
4. Utah – blowout win over Cal
5. New Mexico – lost at Boise, not a bad loss per se, but any loss at this point is damaging
6. Drake – good win vs. Bradley
7. Seton Hall – blown out at UConn
8. CUT LINE IS HERE
9. Providence – damaging home loss to Villanova
10. Colorado – beat Stanford, who isn’t any good
11. Wake Forest – yet another road loss at VT
12. Pitt – blowout road win over BC
13. Iowa – making a late push after a quality win at Northwestern

ACC Watch

• Wake Forest is in big trouble. Their loss to Virginia Tech brings their record away from home to 3-11 on the season, and one of the three wins was against Towson. Beating Georgia Tech and Clemson is a must, and I’m not sure even that will be enough.
• Virginia looked terrible, again, against Duke. I still think they will get in if they beat Georgia Tech in their last game, but a quality win in the tournament would help.
• Pitt is alive, but I still think they need to win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
• Nobody else has a shot.

Elevator Report

Team	Prior Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Arizona	1	2	W 103-83 vs. Oregon (NET 65, Quad 2)
Tennessee	2	1	W 81-74 at Alabama (NET 7, Quad 1-A)
Kansas	2	3	L 82-74 at Baylor (NET 13, Quad 1-A)
Iowa St.	3	2	W 60-52 at UCF (NET 66, Quad 1-B)
Alabama	3	4	L 81-74 vs. Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Creighton	4	3	W 89-75 vs. Marquette (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Kentucky	4	5	W 111-102 vs. Arkansas (NET 120, Quad 3)
BYU	5	4	W 87-75 vs. TCU (NET 38, Quad 2)
St. Mary’s	6	7	L 70-57 vs. Gonzaga (NET 17, Quad 1-B)
South Carolina	7	6	W 82-76 vs. Florida (NET 33, Quad 2)
Northwestern	7	9	L 87-80 vs. Iowa (NET 57, Quad 2)
Nevada	7	8	W 74-66 vs. Fresno State (NET 213, Quad 4)
Nebraska	7	8	W 67-56 vs. Rutgers (NET 91, Quad 3)
Mississippi St.	8	9	L 78-63 at Auburn (NET 6, Quad 1-A)
Texas	8	7	W 81-65 vs. Oklahoma State (NET 115, Quad 3)
Texas Tech	8	7	W 81-70 at West Virginia (NET 144, Quad 3)
Boise State	9	8	W 89-79 vs. New Mexico (NET 28, Quad 1-B)
TCU	9	10	L 87-75 at BYU (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Gonzaga	10	7	W 70-57 at St. Mary’s (NET 16, Quad 1-A)
Virginia	10	11	L 73-48 at Duke (NET 9, Quad 1-A)
Villanova	11	10	W 71-60 at Providence (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Providence	11	Out	L 71-60 vs. Villanova (NET 26, Quad 1-B)
Drake	Out	11	W 74-66 vs. Bradley (NET 60, Quad 2)

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
2. Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette
3. Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke
4. Alabama, Illinois, Auburn, BYU
5. Kentucky, Clemson, San Diego State, Wisconsin
6. Dayton, South Carolina, Washington State, Florida
7. Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Texas, St. Mary’s
8. Nevada, Boise State, Nebraska, Utah State
9. Northwestern, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
10. TCU, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Villanova
11. St. John’s, Virginia, Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall
12. Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14. Louisiana Tech, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
16. Lipscomb, Quinnipiac, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Colorado State, Villanova, St. John’s, Virginia

Last Four In: Utah, New Mexico, Drake, Seton Hall

First Four Out: Providence, Colorado, Wake Forest, Pitt

Next Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech

And Then The Next Four After That: Ohio State, Richmond, Ole Miss, Syracuse

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Kansas State, Oregon, Appalachian State

Gainers

• Baylor, Kentucky, BYU, Northwestern, Nevada, Texas, and St. John’s with Quad 1-A wins

Losers

• Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Wake Forest with Quad 2 losses

Top Seeds

Purdue, UConn, and Houston are easy. The battle for the fourth #1 seed is between Arizona, Tennessee, and North Carolina, and it probably won’t be decided until the conference tournaments.

Bubble Watch

Here is how I see it right now. 12 teams competing for 9 bids. I would group them as follows:

90% Confident: Gonzaga, Virginia, Colorado State

I am 90+% confident these teams are in right now. They could still lose their way out, though. Gonzaga is probably going to get two more chances to play St. Mary’s. Winning either of those makes them a lock.

60% Confident: New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova

I have no idea how to order these five, but the main thing I want to say is, I think they are all ahead of the next group. If the tournament started today, I believe all five of these teams would be in. But it also wouldn’t be the shock of my life if one of them were left out in favor of someone from the next group. The teams in this group still have opportunities to either move up to lock status or to move down into the next group.

Problems: Utah, Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado

If there are no bid-stealers, there is room for one team from this group. Utah has some good wins, but they are 2-6 in their last eight games. Drake is, well, Drake. I don’t understand why Lunardi and others are not including them in the at-large conversation; they have three Quad 1 wins, including a good neutral court win against Nevada. But their overall schedule strength is weak and it’s hard to see them making it if they can’t win the MVC Tournament. Wake Forest and Colorado are similar, each has great metrics but only one Quad 1 win. Wake is 1-4 against Quad 1, 5-6 against Quad 2, and 3-10 away from home. That’s a tournament team? Colorado’s best win is… at Washington? Not good enough.

ACC Watch

• Wake Forest is in trouble again with their loss to Notre Dame. They MUST win at least one of their remaining Quad 1 games at Virginia Tech and home against Clemson. They have been terrible away from home this year, so the VT game is really big for them.
• Virginia has at BC, at Duke, and Georgia Tech at home. I think as long as they win two of those three, they will be OK.
• Pitt has a faint pulse for an at-large bid. Maybe, just maybe, if they win out AND get a flashy win in the tournament.
• Nobody else has a shot.

Elevator Report

Team	2/26 Seed	New Seed	Recent Result (Opponents NET, Quad)
Auburn	3	4	L 92-84 at Tennessee (NET 5, Quad 1-A)
Baylor	4	3	W 62-54 at TCU (NET 38, Quad 1-A)
Wisconsin	4	5	L 74-70 at Indiana (NET 105, Quad 2)
Kentucky	5	4	W 91-89 at Mississippi State (NET 31, Quad 1-A)
Dayton	5	6	W 80-66 vs. Davidson (NET 106, Quad 3)
BYU	6	5	W 76-68 at Kansas (NET 17, Quad 1-A)
Texas Tech	6	8	L 81-69 vs. Texas (NET 34, Quad 2)
St. Mary’s	7	6	W 83-57 at Pepperdine (NET 244, Quad 4)
Mississippi State	7	8	L 91-89 vs. Kentucky (NET 19, Quad 1-A)
TCU	7	9	L 62-54 vs. Baylor (NET 14, Quad 1-A)
Nebraska	8	7	L 78-69 at Ohio State (NET 63, Quad 1-B)
Northwestern	8	7	W 68-61 at Maryland (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Oklahoma	8	9	L 58-45 at Iowa State (NET 8, Quad 1-A)
Nevada	9	7	W 77-74 at Colorado State (NET 29, Quad 1-A)
Colorado State	9	10	L 77-74 vs. Nevada (NET 37, Quad 1-B)
Texas	10	8	W 81-69 at Texas Tech (NET 42, Quad 1-B)
Seton Hall	10	11	L 85-64 at Creighton (NET 12, Quad 1-A)
Virginia	11	10	W 72-68 at Boston College (NET 92, Quad 2)
Wake Forest	11	Out	L 70-65 at Notre Dame (NET 135, Quad 2)
Drake	12	Out	W 107-105 at UIC (NET 179, Quad 3)
St. John’s	Out	11	W 82-59 at Butler (NET 69, Quad 1-B)
Villanova	Out	11	W 75-47 vs. Georgetown (NET 207, Quad 4)
UC Irvine	13	14	W 89-64 at Cal State Northridge (NET 221, Quad 3)
Louisiana Tech	14	13	W 90-84 at Western Kentucky (NET 145, Quad 3)
UNC Wilmington	14	Out	L 69-58 vs. Hofstra (NET 110, Quad 3)
College of Charleston	Out	14	W 96-73 vs. Campbell (NET 291, Quad 4)
Quinnipiac	16	Out	L 88-78 at Rider (NET 242, Quad 4)
Fairfield	Out	16	W 88-64 vs. Siena (NET 353, Quad 4)

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
2. Tennessee, North Carolina, Marquette, Kansas
3. Iowa State, Alabama, Duke, Baylor
4. Creighton, Auburn, Kentucky, Illinois
5. BYU, Clemson, Wisconsin, San Diego State
6. Dayton, Florida, St. Mary’s, Washington State
7. South Carolina, Northwestern, Nebraska, Nevada
8. Mississippi State, Texas, Utah State, Texas Tech
9. Michigan State, TCU, Oklahoma, Boise State
10. Gonzaga, Florida Atlantic, Virginia, Colorado State
11. New Mexico, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah
12. Indiana State, Princeton, James Madison, Grand Canyon
13. McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Louisiana Tech
14. UC Irvine, College of Charleston, Akron, High Point
15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
16. Lipscomb, Fairfield, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State, Southern

Last Four Byes: Virginia, Colorado State, New Mexico, Seton Hall

Last Four In: Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Utah

First Four Out: Drake, Wake Forest, Colorado, Pitt

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Iowa, Cincinnati, Ohio State

And Then The Next Four After That: Richmond, Oregon, Syracuse, Kansas State

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Memphis, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Xavier