Tag: NCAA

Big Winners

• Kentucky blowing out Alabama
• South Carolina getting a much-needed win at Ole Miss
• Wake Forest finally getting that Quad 1 win they needed over Duke

Big Losers

• Michigan State losing at home to Ohio State
• New Mexico with a terrible home loss to Air Force, putting them back on the bubble
• Virginia, Texas A&M, Texas, and Utah with non-competitive losses to Quad 1-A teams
• Grand Canyon losing at home to Abilene Christian and saying goodbye to any hope they had of getting an at-large bid

Top Seeds

Purdue, UConn, and Houston are easy. The battle for the fourth #1 seed continues and Arizona‘s loss to Washington State brings Carolina back into the mix. I am staying with the Wildcats for now, but it’s very close. And don’t count Kansas out.

Bubble Watch

The way I see it, there is a pretty big drop off after the Seton Hall/Gonzaga/Wake Forest/Providence/New Mexico/Virginia group. I feel strongly that all those teams are in right now. After that? Pick two from Utah, Drake, Texas A&M, Villanova, St. John’s, Cincinnati, Colorado, and Ole Miss. I went with Utah and Drake, but I would find it hard to argue with any of those teams.

The Missouri Valley situation is interesting. Is it a two-bid league with Indiana State and Drake? Most of the experts don’t think so. I put Drake in as my last at-large team, not really because I like their chances, but everyone else in that group above is so flawed. Villanova, Texas A&M, and Cincinnati got blown out over the weekend. St. John’s has but two Quad 1 wins (same as Drake) in 11 tries. Colorado has but one. Ole Miss has lost five of six. Does anybody want this last spot?

ACC Watch

• Wake Forest got themselves in for now. They have two Quad 1 games left at Virginia Tech and home against Clemson. One of those should be enough to seal it.
• Virginia hasn’t scored 50 points in any of its last three games. They are still in primarily because of the ineptitude of the teams below them, but they had better beat Boston College on Wednesday.
• Pitt beat Virginia Tech to keep themselves relevant. At Clemson tomorrow night is a must win for them to have a shot at an at-large bid.
• Virginia Tech and Syracuse are probably toast for at-large bids. Even if they win out, I don’t think it will be enough.
• NC State still has a “mathematical possibility” if they win out, simply because of the strength of their remaining schedule. Of course, the probability of them winning out is somewhere around 0.5%. They actually have a better chance to win the tournament.

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona
2. North Carolina, Kansas, Tennessee, Marquette
3. Iowa State, Duke, Alabama, Auburn
4. Creighton, Baylor, Wisconsin, Illinois
5. San Diego State, Kentucky, Dayton, Clemson
6. Florida, Texas Tech, BYU, Washington State
7. St. Mary’s, South Carolina, Mississippi State, TCU
8. Nebraska, Utah State, Oklahoma, Northwestern
9. Michigan State, Nevada, Colorado State, Boise State
10. Florida Atlantic, Texas, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
11. Wake Forest, Providence, New Mexico, Virginia, Indiana State, Princeton
12. Utah, Drake, James Madison, Grand Canyon
13. McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont
14. UNC Wilmington, Akron, Louisiana Tech, High Point
15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
16. Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, Southern, Merrimack, South Dakota St., Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Wake Forest, Providence

Last Four In: New Mexico, Virginia, Utah, Drake

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Villanova, St. John’s, Cincinnati

Next Four Out: Colorado, Ole Miss, Pitt, Virginia Tech

And Then The Next Four After That: Iowa, Oregon, Richmond, Kansas State

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Butler, Memphis, Ohio State, Syracuse

• Creighton, BYU, Utah State, and New Mexico all got Quad 1 wins this week and are moving up as a result
• Kentucky, Michigan State, Virginia, Texas A&M, and Cincinnati all dropped as a result of Quad 2/3 losses

There is some movement around the cut line as I continue to take a closer look at the resumes. I moved Seton Hall into the bracket, not because they did anything this week, but more that after reviewing their resume further, it’s better than I initially thought.

Gonzaga is an interesting case. They have just the one Quad 1 win, but it’s a good one, at Kentucky. Their metrics are outstanding – 22 in the NET, 19 in ESPN BPI, 20 on kenpom. I think they might get credit for attempting to play a rigorous non-conference schedule. They lost to Purdue and UConn, no shame there. They beat Syracuse, UCLA, and USC on neutral courts, but none of those teams happens to be very good this year. That’s not Gonzaga’s fault. They certainly pass the “eye test”. They have two more opportunities for Quad 1s in their last two games at San Francisco and at St. Mary’s. I think winning one of those two will probably be enough.

The Big East situation continues to be confusing. Butler, Xavier, and St. John’s have played themselves out of the mix for now, which leaves Seton Hall, Providence, and Villanova among the teams battling for the last few spots in the tournament. It is very difficult to differentiate them. Seton Hall and Providence appear a hair better than Villanova, so I have them both among the last four teams in.

In the ACC, Virginia Tech helped themselves with their win over Virginia. It was “only” a Quad 2, but the margin of victory helped their NET and their predictive metrics. Their upcoming game against Pitt on Saturday has the feeling of an elimination game.

Wake Forest, same old story. No matter how bad they beat Pitt, they need Quad 1 wins. They have three chances remaining, the next three Saturdays: Duke at home, at Virginia Tech, and Clemson at home. Win two of those three and they’re in. Win zero and they’re out. Win one and… I dunno. My guess is, that won’t be enough, but it may depend on what other teams do.

Pitt had a disastrous game against Wake and probably needs to win out to have a chance at an at-large bid.

NC State got a second Quad 1 win as a result of Wake Forest moving up to #27 in the NET, which makes their home win against Wake a Quad 1. But they’re still woefully short right now. They have three Quad 1s remaining (at UNC, vs. Duke, at Pitt), so there is still an opportunity. If they win out, they would be close.

Syracuse doesn’t have the strength of schedule remaining to get there, even if they were to win out.

1. Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona
2. Kansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, Iowa State
3. Marquette, Duke, Alabama, Creighton
4. Baylor, Auburn, Wisconsin, Illinois
5. Dayton, San Diego State, Clemson, BYU
6. Texas Tech, Florida, Washington State, Kentucky
7. St. Mary’s, Utah State, Michigan State, Mississippi State
8. TCU, South Carolina, Nebraska, Oklahoma
9. New Mexico, Florida Atlantic, Texas, Northwestern
10. Colorado State, Nevada, Virginia, Boise State
11. Gonzaga, Drake, Grand Canyon, Utah, Texas A&M, Seton Hall
12. Providence, Ole Miss, Princeton, James Madison
13. McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont
14. UNC Wilmington, Akron, Louisiana Tech, High Point
15. Oakland, Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate
16. Quinnipiac, Lipscomb, Southern, Merrimack, South Dakota St., Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Virginia, Boise State, Gonzaga, Utah

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Providence, Ole Miss

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Villanova, Cincinnati, Indiana State

Next Four Out: Colorado, Virginia Tech, Iowa, Oregon

And Then The Next Four After That: Butler, SMU, Pitt, St. John’s

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Richmond, Xavier, Syracuse, Memphis

Key results from last night:

• Auburn‘s blowout of Alabama swaps their seeds; the Tigers are now a 3 and the Tide a 4.
• Providence‘s win over Creighton moves the Friars into the field with St. John’s becoming the first team out. Creighton drops one line to a 6 with Clemson taking their spot as a 5
• Northwestern‘s win over Nebraska moves them up to a 9 and drops the Huskers to an 11

Looking at the bracket, the Big East situation is interesting. UConn, Marquette, and Creighton are clearly in. Then you have a group of six teams – Seton Hall, Butler, St. John’s, Providence, Villanova, and Xavier – clogging up the middle of the standings. These teams are all around the cut line and are very difficult to distinguish. As you might imagine, these teams have lots of games remaining against each other. Expect to see Big East teams moving in and out of the bracket frequently over the next several weeks.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

1. Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
2. Arizona, North Carolina, Kansas, Marquette
3. Auburn, Baylor, Wisconsin, Iowa State
4. Dayton, Alabama, Illinois, Duke
5. San Diego State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Clemson
6. Florida Atlantic, Creighton, BYU, Kentucky
7. Indiana State, New Mexico, St. Mary’s, Colorado State
8. Utah, TCU, Texas Tech, Florida
9. Utah State, Texas, Virginia, Northwestern
10. Cincinnati, Michigan State, Washington State, Grand Canyon
11. Ole Miss, Boise State, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Colorado
12. Nevada, Providence, Princeton, James Madison
13. Samford, McNeese State, Akron, UC Irvine
14. Vermont, UNC Wilmington, Louisiana Tech, Morehead St.
15. High Point, Eastern Washington, Oakland, Quinnipiac
16. Colgate, Lipscomb, Southern, South Dakota St., Merrimack, Norfolk State

Last Four Byes: Ole Miss, Boise State, Nebraska, Texas A&M

Last Four In: Mississippi State, Colorado, Nevada, Providence

First Four Out: St. John’s, Butler, Wake Forest, Xavier

Next Four Out: Gonzaga, Villanova, Drake, Virginia Tech

And Then The Next Four After That: Seton Hall, Kansas State, Oregon, Memphis

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Richmond, Miami, Iowa, Pitt

February is here, and that means it’s time for Bracketology. So I cranked up the ol’ spreadsheets, and here we go.

There is a long way to go, and lots of time for commentary over the coming weeks, so I will limit my initial comments to the ACC.

• North Carolina is tight with Arizona for the last #1 seed right now. A win over Duke this weekend would solidify it.
• Duke could be a 3, no worse than a 4.
• Clemson is safely in despite their so-so ACC record.
• Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest are on the bubble. I have the Cavaliers in by virtue of their five-game winning streak. Virginia can solidify their position with a win at Clemson tomorrow. Virginia Tech needs to win at Miami.
• Syracuse, Miami, Florida State, Pitt, and NC State are within shouting distance but will have to do something exceptional down the stretch. Syracuse can maybe get themselves onto the bottom of the bubble with a win at Wake Forest this weekend.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

1. Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona
2. North Carolina, Wisconsin, Marquette, Tennessee
3. Kansas, Alabama, Iowa State, Dayton
4. Duke, Illinois, Auburn, Baylor
5. Creighton, Utah State, Texas Tech, BYU
6. Clemson, Kentucky, Oklahoma, TCU
7. Florida Atlantic, South Carolina, San Diego State, Florida
8. New Mexico, Indiana State, Northwestern, Ole Miss
9. Colorado State, Michigan State, Utah, Nebraska
10. Mississippi State, Boise State, St. Mary’s, Texas
11. St. John’s, Colorado, Grand Canyon, Washington State, Virginia, Oregon
12. Texas A&M, Providence, Princeton, McNeese State
13. James Madison, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine
14. UNC Wilmington, Louisiana Tech, Akron, High Point
15. Morehead State, Youngstown State, Eastern Washington, Quinnipiac
16. Colgate, Lipscomb, Norfolk State, Southern, South Dakota St., Merrimack

Last Four Byes: Texas, St. John’s, Colorado, Washington State

Last Four In: Virginia, Oregon, Texas A&M, Providence

First Four Out: Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Drake

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier

And Then The Next Four After That: Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Syracuse

And How About Four More for Good Measure: Kansas State, Memphis, Nevada, Miami FL