NCAA – Page 4 – Mudville Analytics

Bubble Watch 3/9

Moving off the bubble list yesterday was NC State, who moved to a Lock with their win over Virginia Tech. Although ironically, NC State beat the Hokies so badly that they knocked them out of the top 75 in the NET – which means the Wolfpack’s win in Blacksburg is no longer a Quad 1. But it doesn’t matter. They’re in.

Bubble Team Ranking:

In 6 – Utah State

In 5 – Oklahoma State

In 4 – Nevada

In 3 – Penn State

In 2 – Mississippi State

In 1 – Pitt

Out 1 – Rutgers

Out 2 – Arizona State

Out 3 – North Carolina

Out 4 – Wisconsin

Out 5 – Oregon

Out 6 – Michigan

Out 7 – Clemson

Commentary on today’s games:

Utah State – next game today vs. New Mexico (NET 50)

With a win – this is an interesting one, because right now New Mexico is 50 in the NET, which is the cutoff for a Quad 1 win on a neutral court. But beating them may knock them down in the NET, making it a Quad 2. The vagaries of the NET. I’m not quite ready to call the Aggies a Lock with a win here, but they’re headed in that direction.
With a loss – by the same logic, if New Mexico wins, they probably will move up in the NET and this becomes a Quad 1 loss for Utah State. I think they still have a chance and it will depend on what the other teams do.

Oklahoma State – next game today vs. Texas (NET 9)

With a win – OSU becomes a lock.
With a loss – OSU finishes their regular season at 18-15. Losing to Texas on a neutral court doesn’t really hurt you, but the Cowboys are on thin ice as it is. They will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Nevada – next game today vs. San Jose State (NET 96)

With a win – this is a Quad 2, just barely. It helps marginally, I guess, but it’s really more about avoiding the loss.
With a loss – Nevada is in trouble if they lose this game. They too will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Penn State – next game today vs. Illinois (NET 33)

With a win – this is a solid Quad 1 opponent. I can’t say it makes them a Lock, but they would go to the head of the bubble pack, and the other teams would have to do some extraordinary things to keep the Nittany Lions out.
With a loss – a Quad 1 loss doesn’t really hurt their resume, but they’re on thin ice as it is. Probably no better than 50-50 they get in if they lose today.

Mississippi State – next game today vs. Florida (NET 59)

With a win – Quad 2 opponent. Every little bit helps, but certainly doesn’t make them a Lock.
With a loss – I don’t like their chances. It would depend on what other teams do.

Pitt – next game today vs. Duke (NET 25)

With a win – I’m not sure my model would agree, but my gut says Pitt is a Lock if they win. Duke is really playing well right now. A neutral court win over the Blue Devils is the final validation Pitt needs.
With a loss – I really don’t know. I don’t think they’ll make it, but other Bracketologists have them higher for whatever reason. They certainly look like a tournament team with the “eye test”, but I’m not sure the committee cares.

Rutgers – next game today vs. Michigan (NET 54)

With a win – it’s a Quad 2, but because Michigan is a fellow bubble team, this win has a little more cachet than, say, Nevada beating San Jose State. But it certainly doesn’t make Rutgers a lock.
With a loss – I don’t think they’re going to make it. I can’t rule it out until I see what everyone else does.

Arizona State – next game today vs. USC (NET 48)

With a win – it’s a Quad 1 win for now, but similar to the Utah State comment, the act of beating USC may knock them down enough in the NET so that it’s not a Quad 1 anymore. Beat them, but don’t beat them badly, I guess. Regardless, it’s a really good win and would move Arizona State toward the head of this pack of teams right around the cut line.
With a loss – similar to Rutgers, I don’t think they’ll make it, but with their four Quad 1 wins, it can’t be ruled out.

North Carolina – next game today vs. Virginia (NET 30)

With a win – the Tar Heels move to a 60% chance to make it with a win today.
With a loss – they’re done.

Wisconsin (regular season over)

The Badgers have no games left to improve their standing. Could they possibly make it? I can’t completely remove a team with six Quad 1 wins. But I would rate their chances at 10% or less.

Oregon – next game today vs. Washington State (NET 69)

With a win – a win doesn’t mean much. Oregon has to do a lot more than beat Washington State if they’re going to make it.
With a loss – they’re done.

Michigan – next game today vs. Rutgers (NET 43)

With a win – it’s a solid Quad 1 win and will move the Wolverines up considerably in the pecking order, but their situation would still be precarious.
With a loss – they’re done.

Clemson – next game today vs. NC State (NET 37)

With a win – would be a solid Quad 1 for the Tigers, their third win over NC State, and would help cancel out the Tigers’ bad losses. But it seems unlikely that this win alone will be enough to get the Tigers in.
With a loss – they’re done.

Bubble Action 3/8

Quick update on the six bubble teams in action today.

NC State can move to a Lock on my board with a win over Virginia Tech.

North Carolina and Arizona State are fighting to stay alive. The Tar Heels are definitely done if they lose to BC. Arizona State might still have a faint pulse with a loss to Oregon State, but they would be a long shot.

Oklahoma State and Wisconsin are both in similar positions. They are both around the cut line. You can’t rule them out if they lose today, but you can’t say they’re in if they win either. A loss probably hurts more than a win helps. Both are playing conference rivals who are better than their record would indicate.

Then there’s Pitt. The Panthers play Georgia Tech this afternoon. I say they are out if they lose, but there is a lot of disagreement about Pitt among Bracketologists, and not everyone would agree. But it does seem that the community is coming around a bit to my point of view. Only 73 of the 89 brackets on bracketmatrix.com have them in. Jerry Palm of cbssports.com still has them as a 9 seed, which is a fantasy.

Bubble Update 3/5

It has been a busy weekend in bubble land.

West Virginia, Auburn, and USC moved up to Locks with their wins over Kansas State, Tennessee, and Arizona State respectively
Penn State and Oklahoma State got huge wins to move them up in the bubble pecking order
Nevada had a damaging home loss to UNLV which makes their position precarious
Mississippi State, Arizona State, North Carolina, and Pitt failed to get the wins they needed to solidify their positions
Utah State got their first Quad 1 win against Boise State

As I write this, Wisconsin and Rutgers haven’t played yet. Wisconsin’s game against Minnesota won’t help them if they win, but it will hurt them if they lose. If Rutgers can beat Northwestern, I think it will move them to a Lock.

I need to correct and clarify a couple of things from Friday’s post. One, I was unclear about the status of Florida Atlantic. I do consider them a lock. If someone else wins the Conference USA Tournament, the Owls will get in and that will be a bid steal.

Also, I neglected to include Utah State in my list of bubble teams. I’m not sure how that happened, but in any case, they are definitely in that group. In fact, with their win over Boise State, I think they would be in if the tournament started today.

With that, let’s run through the updated lists.

Locks (39):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

In for Now (2):

With their losses yesterday, I am moving Nevada and Mississippi State down into the bubble group. I am no longer convinced that they would be in if the tournament started today. The only two teams I am certain would be in today are:

Rutgers – I’m moving them to a lock if they can beat Northwestern today.

NC State – they probably benefited from not playing yesterday while a number of bubble teams around them lost. If they beat Virginia Tech on Wednesday, I’ll move them to a Lock.

Bubble Teams (5 bids available, 12 teams):

At this moment, my five bids would go to Nevada, Utah State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Penn State. Or maybe Wisconsin. With their loss to Oklahoma State yesterday, Texas Tech is off the list. Teams are listed in rank order.

Nevada – killer home loss to UNLV. They cannot afford to lose in the quarters of the Mountain West Tournament. Depending on what else happens, they may need to get to the Mountain West final.

Utah State – yes, they only have one Quad 1 win, but there is precedent for that. 8-1 against Quad 2 is outstanding. They are number 21 in the NET. No team ranked in the top 25 in the NET has ever been left out. They’re probably headed for a MWC Tournament semifinal rubber match with Boise State. A win there should clinch it for Utah State.

Mississippi State – they are hanging by a thread. Unless they make a run in the SEC Tournament, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Oklahoma State – with their win over Texas Tech, I have them in right now, but it’s precarious. They need to beat Oklahoma on Wednesday, and then they’ll get a chance to end all doubt with a quarterfinal against Texas. If they don’t win that, they’ll be sweating it out.

Penn State – the Lions got their second straight big win on Sunday over Maryland. That puts them on the right side of the cut line, but their position is anything but safe. They need to win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament, at a minimum.

Wisconsin – if they can avoid a bad loss against Minnesota today, their 6 Quad 1 wins will be hard to keep out. Their NET is 78, which would be the lowest to ever get an at-large bid.

Pitt – is it possible that the ACC could get only four teams in? Yup. I don’t see why Lunardi and Jerry Palm have Pitt in. What about their resume is better than, say, Wisconsin or Arizona State? Maybe they know something I don’t about the committee, but looking strictly at their resume, it’s not good enough. I say they have to beat Duke on Thursday or they’re not getting in.

North Carolina – they have to beat Boston College and Virginia to get to the semis of the ACC Tournament. Otherwise they are not getting in. Even that would not be a guarantee; it might take a run to the finals.

Michigan – Jerry Palm has them in right now. I don’t see it. Beat Indiana today, and now we’re talking. My guess is, that won’t be quite enough. They’ll need to get to the semis of the Big 10 Tournament.

Arizona State – they needed to beat USC and they didn’t. They’ll probably play Oregon in the Pac-12 quarters. Consider that an elimination game. My guess is that the winner will need to beat UCLA in the semis to get in.

Oregon – just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final.

Clemson – they need to pull for NC State to win on Wednesday, because beating Virginia Tech doesn’t do them any good. They have to beat the Wolfpack or they have no shot. To have a realistic shot, they have to make the ACC Tournament final.

Bracketology 2/19

Another week of college basketball is in the books. This week the NCAA came out with their top 16 seeds, which is kind of a sanity check for us bracketologists. I was more or less on target with one exception; I had UConn as a 3 seed over Marquette. I can certainly see why the committee would pick Marquette; they are 13-3 in the Big East, while UConn is only 9-7. However, UConn has in incredibly impressive non-conference resume; they beat Alabama, Iowa State, and Oregon on neutral courts, and they won at Florida, and the closest of those four games was 15 points.

But I do think the committee has a recency bias, and you might say that’s appropriate, although in my opinion games in November ought to count the same as games in February.

Here’s an update on ACC teams.

Virginia – headed for a 3 at this point, and more likely to move down than up.

Pitt – I have them as an 11 after the loss to Virginia Tech. That is lower than most prognosticators. Despite their ACC record, their overall resume isn’t that good. They have 6 sub-Quad I losses – the most of any serious tournament contender. They better not stumble down the stretch.

Miami – A solid 5 and more likely to go up than down. Historically, 5s get upset much more than 4s in the tournament. Favorable schedule remaining.

Clemson – I see them as not even close right now. Lunardi’s had them close to the cut line, but I don’t see how. Their NET is 80, they have no Quad I-A wins, and three Quad 4 losses. I’m not aware of any team receiving an at-large bid with three Quad 4 losses. They must win at NC State or at Virginia to even be relevant, and in my opinion they have to win out to get in.

NC State – I have the Wolfpack as a 10 seed, maybe one spot lower than the consensus. They’re not quite a lock, but they would have to fall apart to miss the tournament.

Duke – I have them as an 8. Very close to the 8/9 cut line in my model. They finish with NC State at home and at UNC, so still could move up.

North Carolina – I have the Tar Heels as the first team out, and in a way I think that makes them sound closer than they really are. As the commentators never tire of pointing out, they are 0-9 against Quad I opponents, and they WILL NOT get in without a Quad I win. They have two more chances with home games against Virginia and Duke. If they lose those, forget about it. If they can win one of those, and their two road games against Notre Dame and FSU, then it might come down to the ACC Tournament. My sense is, they won’t get in without two Quad I wins.

Everybody else – not close. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest would have to jump 10-15 teams to get in. Each needs to win out, and then probably do some damage in the ACC Tournament.

And now for the bracket:

Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
Texas, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA
Tennessee, UConn, Gonzaga, Virginia
Marquette, Indiana, Iowa State, Xavier
St. Mary’s, Kansas State, Miami, San Diego State
Creighton, Arkansas, Maryland, Northwestern
TCU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Iowa
Providence, Kentucky, Michigan State, Duke
Illinois, Boise State, Florida Atlantic, Memphis
Nevada, Rutgers, NC State, Oklahoma State
Missouri, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State
College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Liberty, Utah Valley, Southern Miss
Yale, Iona, UC Irvine, Eastern Washington
Youngstown St., Colgate, Vermont, UNC Asheville
Samford, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Morehead State, Howard, Alcorn State, Merrimack

Last Four Byes: NC State, Oklahoma State, Missouri, West Virginia

Last Four In: Mississippi State, Pitt, USC, Utah State

First Four Out: UNC, Wisconsin, North Texas, Oregon

Next Four Out: Coll. of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), New Mexico, Penn State, Texas Tech

Officiating in College Basketball

I’m going to engage in a time-honored tradition among college basketball fans: I’m going to complain about the refs.

I take as my illustration the example which is freshest in my mind, last night’s NC State-Syracuse game. But you can start from wherever you are. It really doesn’t matter; the problems are everywhere. I may sound like a whining State fan, and I probably am, but I promise you I could have used just about any other game to illustrate these points.

What I see as the essential problem is this: the officials call too many fouls. Many of the fouls they call are unnecessary. As a result, the officials are too intrusive and have too much influence over the outcome of the game.

How many times do you watch a close college basketball game, and what you remember about it most vividly, and what is talked about after the game, is not the on-court action but the officiating? Doesn’t that indicate that something is wrong? It isn’t supposed to be this way, is it? How often does this happen in baseball, or soccer, or tennis, or golf? That what you remember is a call (or non-call), not a play? Admittedly this does happen quite a bit in football, but I would still say that officiating is more influential in basketball than in any other sport.

Certainly some of the problem is not the fault of the officials or the rules; it’s built into the game of basketball. If you think about it, basketball confines ten people in a very small space. Five of them really want to get somewhere, and the other five really want to keep them from getting there. As a result, there is going to be contact. And that’s a problem, because basketball is supposed to be a “flow” game like soccer or hockey. The ball moves, the players move, the whole game is characterized by free-flowing movement. Excessive contact prevents that, so in order to preserve the integrity of the game, there have to be a lot of restrictions on contact. Certain forms of contact are acceptable, but many are not, and result in a foul. It’s a situation that is naturally set up to result in officials having to make a lot of calls.

The irony of the situation is that the intent of the foul rules is not to interrupt the flow of the game; it is in fact the opposite of that. The foul rules are intended to disincentivize unwanted contact so as to allow the game to flow. In other words, to let basketball be basketball.

These things are destined to always be in tension. On one hand, excessive contact turns the game of basketball into something other than what it was intended to be, and it messes up the balance between offense and defense. On the other hand, the enforcement of the rules around physical contact requires an intrusive officiating presence, with three officials further crowding the already confined space where the players are, watching their every move, and frequently interrupting the game to whistle a violation. The thing that is supposed to preserve the flow of the game has to interrupt the flow of the game to do it.

So my point is, I get it. It’s hard to find the perfect balance between these things, and it always will be. My argument is that college basketball currently leans too heavily towards calling fouls in situations where the contact is insignificant and has little outcome on the play; or where the contact is not an outcome of the natural flow of the game, but is instead a charade.

As Exhibit A, I’d like to reference back-to-back plays in last night’s NC State-Syracuse game. Take a look at the two plays that start around the 9:58 mark in the condensed game video:

In the first play, NC State’s Ebenezer Duwuona is guarding Syracuse’s Jesse Edwards. Edwards works his way into the painted area, very close to the basket. Duwuona moves with him, keeping his body between Edwards and the basket. Duwuona is clearly trying to stay close to Edwards but remain perfectly vertical so as to avoid fouling. When Edwards elevates for the shot, there is a slight amount of body contact, that if anything was created by Edwards jumping into Duwuona. At no time does Duwuona do anything to initiate contact, other than stay close to Edwards. The contact is minimal and appears not to affect Edwards in any way. But it’s a foul on Duwuona.

Folks, there’s nothing to see here. It’s a no-call. I’m not a basketball rules expert, so I’m not trying to say it’s not the correct application of the rule. But if the rules say that’s a foul, then the rules are bad. That contact is incidental and the offensive player needs to be able to finish through it – which Edwards does.

Then you go down to the other end, and the same situation plays out. This time, Edwards is the defender against DJ Burns. Edwards does move his right arm downward a bit as Burns takes the shot, but is there any contact there? I don’t see it. I suppose it’s possible that Edwards made contact with Burns’ left arm, but I’m not able to see it. In any case, you get the idea. This kind of thing happens all the time in college basketball. A defender is making no attempt to defend the play, other than keeping himself between the shooter and the basket. Contact is either non-existent or, at most, gentle. And yet, fouls are called. Action is disrupted. Players foul out. And games are decided.

The other situation I’d like to highlight occurs just two plays later at the 10:34 mark. Burns catches the ball in good post position. He takes a couple of dribbles and goes up for a shot. The defender – who is 6’11” and weighs 230 pounds – hurls himself backwards and goes supine onto the floor. And he is rewarded for this behavior by getting an offensive foul called on Burns.

I find this entire situation intolerable. Burns has done everything right. He has outworked Edwards for good post position. He has turned and gone up strong for a shot. Edwards has done nothing in particular defensively. He has allowed Burns to get good post position and he hasn’t attempted to make a play on the ball. And he knows it. He knows that Burns is about to score on him. And instead of responding by attempting to block Burns’ shot, or simply letting him have the shot that he has earned and trying to get in rebounding position, he has one more trick up his sleeve. He attempts, in what can only be described as a performative act rather than a basketball play, to make it appear as though Burns has barreled right through an innocent defender. And it works.

It’s not Edwards’ fault. People respond to incentives. So as long as this behavior is rewarded, of course defenders are going to do it, and they should. The problem is the rules, or the interpretation of them, that incentivize these plays. The entire concept is flawed. Think about the very language we use to refer to this play – we call it “drawing” a charge. Why do we use that term “draw”? It’s because we know that this is not an attempt to actually play defense; it’s an attempt to lure the offensive player and the officials into playing their appointed roles in a scripted performance.

We’ve all seen it a million times. The offense has put itself in an advantageous position and is moving toward the basket. The defender resorts to inserting himself into the path of the offensive player who is in the process of leaping or shooting, in hopes that the offensive player will knock him over. Oftentimes the player crosses his arms over his chest in a kind of “brace for impact” position. The whole thing is contrived. It’s not defense, it’s theater; and we fall for it.

There are offensive fouls that occur naturally in the course of play. A dribbler will hook a defender with his arm in an attempt to get by. A screener will move into a defender. A defender who is actually guarding someone by moving his feet in a defensive stance will get knocked over by an overly aggressive driver. I have no problem at all with those calls. What I have a problem with is the non-defensive play where the defender sets himself up like a bowling pin in the lane and then launches himself backward in an attempt to create the appearance of something.

Get in a defensive stance. Make a play on the ball. Get a steal. Block a shot. Contest a shot. Hack him and make him earn it from the line. Or get out of the way and let him score. But this performative nonsense must be stopped. The solution is to just stop calling it. We don’t call it within the restricted area; how about if we increase that area by a few feet? How about if officials exercise some discernment about guys who are seven feet tall being knocked off their feet rather than actually contesting a shot?

To me, the key differentiator should be, what is the defender’s intent? Does the defender get knocked over in the process of actually guarding the offensive player, or is the defender attempting to get knocked over and “draw” a charge? You may say it’s asking too much for the officials to determine intent, but is it? As a fan, can’t you tell the difference between a defender who is trying to guard someone and a defender who is trying to draw a charge? If you can tell, don’t you think the best referees in college basketball should be able to tell too? It would send a clear message to the players: stop messing around and play basketball. Isn’t that what we want?

After the game, Kevin Keatts was uncharacteristically direct about his displeasure with the officiating. He said exactly what I was thinking: “let the players decide the game”. Yes. Of course, the officials would probably say, the players do decide the game – by fouling or not fouling in critical situations. That’s true, in a sense, but the spirit of Keatts’ comment is certainly correct. We should err on the side of letting players play and keeping officials out of the way.

There is much else that could be said about officiating as well. The ego-driven histrionics of the some of the officials; the incessant reviews that bog down the ends of games; and the blatant missed calls such as the one that gave Virginia a win over Duke that they shouldn’t have had. But this is the thing that bothers me most.

Bracketology 2/12

It’s been a busy weekend in college basketball. Here are the Bracketology headlines:

Texas moves up to the top line. Their 10-5 Quadrant 1 record, including 6 wins against Quadrant 1A, is too good to ignore. Their blowout of West Virginia drops the Mountaineers to a 9.
Tennessee drops down to a 3 after another buzzer-beater loss, this time at the hands of Missouri. The Tigers jump up to a 7.
Creighton is on fire and they jump to a 5.
Oklahoma State gets a huge win at Iowa State and jumps to a 7.
Providence is now firmly in bubble territory after their fourth loss in their last five games.
Mississippi State gets a huge win at Arkansas and jumps into the field.
Kentucky remains in the bracket after losing at Georgia, but just barely.
New Mexico drops out of the field with a bad loss at Air Force.

In the ACC,

NC State moved up a line after blowing out Boston College
UNC solidified their position a bit by blowing out Clemson
Miami and Pitt avoided bad losses with wins over Louisville and FSU
Virginia Tech and Wake Forest kept their faint hopes alive with wins over Notre Dame and Georgia Tech

A lot of bracketologists still have Clemson in. I don’t see it. They have two Quad 4 losses. At-large teams with two Quad 4 losses are extremely rare. Since 2016, there have been four: Providence 2017, Providence 2018, Baylor 2019, and Arizona State 2019. The first three of those teams had much stronger Quad 1 wins than the Tigers do. Arizona State 2019, well that was one of the oddest and most controversial selections in recent memory. Clemson is down to 77th in the NET. No team ranked lower than that has been selected as an at-large team since at least 2016, although Rutgers 2022 was exactly 77th. But they had six Quad 1 wins.

We can’t talk about yesterday without talking about Duke-Virginia. It’s odd to be in the position of defending Duke for being on the wrong end of a call, but that was a miscarriage of justice. Considering the circumstances – the importance of the situation, the fact that the replays clearly showed what happened and the officials had all the time they needed to review, and the fact that the correct call was made on the floor but was reversed – I think that’s the worst officiating decision I’ve ever seen.

From the explanations, I gather that the officials reasoned that the foul occurred not on the arm but with the body, and the body contact happened after the buzzer, therefore no foul. There are two things wrong with that. 1) That’s not the rule. 2) Yes, the foul absolutely did take place on the arm.

Let’s not overthink this. It doesn’t require knowledge of arcane rules. A guy went up for a shot and was hacked in the act before the clock ran out. Anyone with eyes could see it. Get the call right, and Duke very likely has a massive road win. With that win, Duke is probably a 7 seed, maybe a 6. As it is, I have them as a 9. That’s lower than Lunardi and most others, but if you forget about the name on the jersey and look at the blind resume, that’s where they belong.

Here’s the current bracket, with automatic bids in bold:

Alabama, Purdue, Kansas, Texas
Houston, Baylor, Arizona, UCLA
Virginia, Tennessee, UConn, Xavier
Gonzaga, Kansas State, Marquette, Indiana
Iowa State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, Creighton
Miami, Illinois, TCU, Arkansas
Florida Atlantic, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Auburn
Maryland, Rutgers, Nevada, Michigan State
West Virginia, NC State, Iowa, Duke
Memphis, Northwestern, Boise State, Providence
Mississippi State, UNC, Pitt, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Oregon
College of Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake, Liberty
Southern Miss, VCU, Sam Houston, Kent St.
Yale, Iona, Furman, UC Santa Barbara
Youngstown St., Eastern Washington, Colgate, Vermont
UNC Asheville, Northwestern St., Alcorn St., Howard, Morehead St., Fairleigh Dickinson

Last Four Byes: Boise State, Providence, Mississippi State, UNC

Last Four In (Play-in games): Pitt, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Oregon

First Four Out: USC, New Mexico, Utah State, Wisconsin

Next Four Out: College of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), North Texas, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall

And Even the Next Four Out After That: Arizona State, Florida, Wake Forest, Clemson

Bracketology 2023 – 2/9 Bracket

The last Bracketology post I made was on the morning of March 12, 2020. That was the day the college basketball world stopped and everything got cancelled.

Thankfully, things have returned to something like normal, and I’m going to give this Bracketology thing another try here in 2023. I’ll do regular bracket updates, the occasional bubble watch, and some targeted commentary for ACC teams.

Here’s my bracket as it stands right now. Automatic bids in bold:

Purdue, Alabama, Kansas, Houston
Arizona, Texas, Baylor, Tennessee
UCLA, Virginia, Xavier, UConn
Kansas St., Gonzaga, Iowa St., Marquette
Miami, Indiana, San Diego St., St. Mary’s
Arkansas, TCU, Creighton, Auburn
West Virginia, Rutgers, Illinois, Duke
Florida Atlantic, Michigan St., Nevada, Iowa
Maryland, Providence, Northwestern, Boise St.
Memphis, NC State, Missouri, New Mexico
Oklahoma St., Pitt, Kentucky, USC, UNC, Oregon
College of Charleston, Oral Roberts, Liberty, Southern Miss
VCU, Drake, Sam Houston, Kent St.
Yale, Iona, Furman, UC Santa Barbara
Colgate, E. Washington, Youngstown St., Vermont
UNC Asheville, Northwestern St., Morgan St., Fairleigh Dickinson, Maryland Eastern Shore, Southern

Last Four Byes: Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma St., Pitt

Last Four In (Play-in games): Kentucky, USC, UNC, Oregon

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Utah St., Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: College of Charleston (if they don’t get an automatic bid), Florida, Clemson, Wake Forest

NCAA All-Americans, Reimagined, Part 4: The 2010s

This is the fourth and final entry in this series, in which I am recreating the All-American teams as they would have been if all (US-based) players went to college for 4 years. Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 focused on the 1970s/1980s, 1990s, and 2000s respectively. In Part 4, we’ll focus on the 2010s.

As in previous posts, NBA players are in red and National Players of the Year (Naismith) are in bold.

2009-10

First Team

Actual	Modified
Sherron Collins	Kevin Durant
Wesley Johnson	Kevin Love
Scottie Reynolds	Derrick Rose
Evan Turner	Brook Lopez
John Wall	Stephen Curry

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Cole Aldrich	Russell Westbrook
James Anderson	Michael Beasley
DeMarcus Cousins	James Harden
Luke Harangody	Dejuan Blair
Jon Scheyer	DJ Augustin
Greivis Vasquez	Evan Turner

It was not a difficult call to push all the First Teamers down in favor of this five. Keep in mind too, Blake Griffin was injured, so I left him off. Player of the Year was a very tough call between “senior” Kevin Durant and “senior” Steph Curry, but I went with Durant. The only Actual player who remains on the team at all is Player of the Year Evan Turner.

2010-11

First Team

Actual	Modified
Jimmer Fredette	Russell Westbrook
JaJuan Johnson	Kevin Love
Nolan Smith	Derrick Rose
Jared Sullinger	Blake Griffin
Kemba Walker	James Harden

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Kenneth Faried	Evan Turner
Jordan Hamilton	Dejuan Blair
Ben Hansbrough	Michael Beasley
Kawhi Leonard	Jimmer Fredette
Marcus Morris	John Wall
Jordan Taylor	DeMarcus Cousins
Derrick Williams	Jeff Teague

Again, not a difficult call here to push down all five First Teamers. Jimmer Fredette was National POY, and I love Jimmer, but are you keeping him over one of the five I have listed? I know a lot of these teams are great, but this has to be one of the best, with 4 “seniors” (Westbrook, Love, Rose, and Harden) and “junior” Griffin. I went with Harden as National POY, but all of the five have a case. I hated to leave Michael Beasley off First Team, but there just isn’t a spot. Jeff Teague sneaks onto Second Team in his “senior” year. Couldn’t find a spot for DeAndre Jordan or Eric Gordon.

2011-12

First Team

Actual	Modified
Anthony Davis	Anthony Davis
Draymond Green	John Wall
Doug McDermott	Blake Griffin
Thomas Robinson	Thomas Robinson
Jared Sullinger	DeMarcus Cousins

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Isaiah Canaan	Paul George
Marcus Denmon	Kyrie Irving
Kevin Jones	Greg Monroe
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Draymond Green
Tyler Zeller	Kemba Walker

I didn’t retain many freshman First Teamers, but Davis is an exception. Thomas Robinson wasn’t much of an NBA player, but in 2012 he was right there with Davis. Griffin is an easy choice as player of the year. “Juniors” John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins round out the First Team. Second Team is not bad either with George, Irving, Monroe, and Kemba. Couldn’t find a spot for DeMar Derozan.

2012-13

First Team

Actual	Modified
Trey Burke	Kyrie Irving
Doug McDermott	Anthony Davis
Victor Oladipo	Kawhi Leonard
Kelly Olynyk	John Wall
Otto Porter	DeMarcus Cousins

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Ben McLemore	Jared Sullinger
Mason Plumlee	Trey Burke
Marcus Smart	Thomas Robinson
Jeff Withey	Otto Porter
Cody Zeller	Victor Oladipo

This was a tough call. Burke, Oladipo, and Porter were outstanding, and possibly good enough to stay on First Team. But ultimately I can’t justify putting them ahead of the guys I listed. Davis would have been a sophomore; Kyrie would have been a junior; Leonard, Wall, and Cousins seniors. No idea whom to select as Player of the Year; I’m going with Cousins more or less at random.

2013-14

First Team

Actual	Modified
Nick Johnson	Anthony Davis
Doug McDermott	Doug McDermott
Shabazz Napier	Kyrie Irving
Jabari Parker	Andre Drummond
Russ Smith	Trey Burke

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Cleanthony Early	Victor Oladipo
C. J. Fair	Bradley Beal
Sean Kilpatrick	Jared Sullinger
Nik Stauskas	Otto Porter
T. J. Warren	Tristan Thompson
Andrew Wiggins	Jabari Parker

As often happens, the guys who got bumped last year (Burke, McDermott, Oladipo) reappear this year, and this time Burke and McDermott get that First Team spot. They are joined by Davis, Irving, and Andre Drummond. Bradley Beal and Tristan Thompson get a spot on Second Team. Player of the Year was between “junior” Davis and “senior” Irving; tough call but I’m going with AD.

2014-15

First Team

Actual	Modified
Willie Cauley-Stein	Andre Drummond
Jerian Grant	Anthony Davis
Frank Kaminsky	Frank Kaminsky
Jahlil Okafor	Trey Burke
D’Angelo Russell	Bradley Beal

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Malcolm Brogdon	Otto Porter
Bobby Portis	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Karl-Anthony Towns	Cody Zeller
Seth Tuttle	Jabari Parker
Kyle Wiltjer	Jahlil Okafor
Delon Wright	Andrew Wiggins

Davis becomes a two-time National Player of the Year. Drummond and Burke make First Team for the second time, and they are joined by Bradley Beal. Frank Kaminsky deservedly hangs onto a First Team spot. A few guys who made Actual Second Team in previous years (Kidd-Gilchrist, Zeller, Wiggins) get a spot on the hypothetical Second Team this year.

2015-16

First Team

Actual	Modified
Malcolm Brogdon	Willie Cauley-Stein
Buddy Hield	Buddy Hield
Brice Johnson	Andrew Wiggins
Ben Simmons	Karl-Anthony Towns
Tyler Ulis	Jabari Parker
Denzel Valentine	D’Angelo Russell

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Kris Dunn	Denzel Valentine
Perry Ellis	Jahlil Okafor
Georges Niang	T. J. Warren
Jakob Pöltl	Malcolm Brogdon
Jarrod Uthoff	Marcus Smart

Once again, no idea who would have won Player of the Year from this group. I’m going to give it to Towns, because he was the best of these players in the NBA in 2015-16. But maybe Buddy Hield would have held on. TJ Warren, Denzel Valentine, and Marcus Smart get Second Team spots in their “senior” years.

2016-17

First Team

Actual	Modified
Lonzo Ball	Andrew Wiggins
Josh Hart	Karl-Anthony Towns
Justin Jackson	Jabari Parker
Frank Mason III	Frank Mason III
Caleb Swanigan	D’Angelo Russell

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Dillon Brooks	Josh Hart
Luke Kennard	Aaron Gordon
Malik Monk	Devin Booker
Johnathan Motley	Zach LaVine
Nigel Williams-Goss	Myles Turner

I went with Towns as POY last year, so I have to stick with him. Wiggins, Parker, and Russell are also repeats from last year. Frank Mason hangs onto a First Team spot. Second Team features a bunch of good young NBA players, led by Devin Booker and Myles Turner. Also note that Ben Simmons was injured this year, so I left him out.

Speaking of injuries, I’m not sure what to do with Joel Embiid. He was a freshman in 2013-14; missed 2015 and 2016 with injuries; played 31 games in 2017 and was a stud. Call him an honorable mention.

2017-18

First Team

Actual	Modified
Deandre Ayton	D’Angelo Russell
Marvin Bagley III	Karl-Anthony Towns
Jalen Brunson	Ben Simmons
Devonte’ Graham	Lonzo Ball
Trae Young	Myles Turner

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Keita Bates-Diop	Jayson Tatum
Trevon Bluiett	Devin Booker
Miles Bridges	Jalen Brunson
Jevon Carter	Trae Young
Keenan Evans	Jakob Pöltl
Jock Landale	Donovan Mitchell

Karl-Anthony Towns becomes the fourth player to be National Player of the Year three times, along with Bill Walton, David Thompson, and hypothetical LeBron James. Ben Simmons leaps onto First Team. Brunson and Trae Young hang onto Second Team spots.

2018-19

First Team

Actual	Modified
RJ Barrett	Ben Simmons
Rui Hachimura	Lonzo Ball
Ja Morant	Jayson Tatum
Grant Williams	Trae Young
Zion Williamson	Zion Williamson

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Jarrett Culver	Grant Williams
Carsen Edwards	Donovan Mitchell
Ethan Happ	Jalen Brunson
Markus Howard	Bam Adebayo
Cassius Winston	Jamal Murray

This is a really interesting team. You have to keep Zion on there. Simmons, Ball, Tatum, and Trae Young round out the First Team. Who is the Player of the Year? Could one of those three have topped Zion? I’m going with Simmons.

I started working on this because I hoped it would shed some light on how to compare college basketball players from different eras. In particular, how should I regard a modern player who makes First Team All-American, compared to a player from the ’60s or ’70s? Are those equivalent accomplishments? I think the clear answer is, they are not. Many, perhaps most, modern All-Americans would not have made the team if they were playing against the best players in their age group.

NCAA All-Americans Reimagined, Part 3: the 2000s

In this series, I am recreating the All-American teams as they would have been if all (US-based) players went to college for 4 years. Part 1 and Part 2 focused on the 1970s/1980s and 1990s respectively. In Part 3, we’ll focus on the 2000s. During this decade, early entry (or skipping college altogether) continued to grow in popularity. While I don’t have a comprehensive list of players who turned pro early or skipped college altogether, one way to see the growth is to look at the number of NBA players under the age of 22, by season:

Season	# of NBA Players Under Age 22
1992-93	3
1993-94	4
1994-95	6
1995-96	10
1996-97	15
1997-98	19
1998-99	22
1999-00	23
2000-01	31
2001-02	41
2002-03	34
2003-04	30
2004-05	39
2005-06	50
2006-07	47
2007-08	42
2008-09	39

The growing number of college age players in the NBA makes the task of reassessing the All-American teams that much harder. Each season, there are tens of players to consider. But I did my best. So here we go. I’m changing my color scheme a bit; in this post, NBA players in are red and Naismith Player of the Year Award winners are in bold.

1999-2000

First Team

Actual	Modified
Chris Carrawell	Elton Brand
Marcus Fizer	Kobe Bryant
A. J. Guyton	Mike Bibby
Kenyon Martin	Kenyon Martin
Chris Mihm	Steve Francis
Troy Murphy	Richard Hamilton

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Courtney Alexander	Baron Davis
Shane Battier	A.J. Guyton
Mateen Cleaves	Marcus Fizer
Scoonie Penn	Lamar Odom
Morris Peterson	Ron Artest
Stromile Swift	Tracy McGrady

Kobe, in his “senior” season, is a shoo-in for Player of the Year. Then you have Elton Brand, the year after he actually won National POY; Mike Bibby and Rip Hamilton, who were first teamers the year before; and Steve Francis, who was a second teamer the year before. Kenyon Martin stays on first team, Guyton and Carrawell get bumped to second team, and everybody else is bumped entirely. Second team features 4 twenty-year olds who were already solid NBA players in Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, Ron Artest/Metta World Peace, and Tracy McGrady. I just don’t see Carrawell, Murphy, or Chris Mihm making it over those guys.

2000-01

First Team

Actual	Modified
Shane Battier	Shane Battier
Joseph Forte	Elton Brand
Casey Jacobsen	Tracy McGrady
Troy Murphy	Lamar Odom
Jason Williams	Baron Davis

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Troy Bell	Ron Artest
Michael Bradley	Chris Mihm
Tayshaun Prince	Marcus Fizer
Jason Richardson	Jason Williams
Jamaal Tinsley	Larry Hughes

The first thing to say here is that if Brand had actually been playing in this his “senior” year, that Duke team would have been the greatest team of all time. Battier won National POY and I kept him on First Team, joined by Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, McGrady, and Brand, all “seniors” except for the junior Odom. TMac gets the nod as POY. Chris Mihm and Marcus Fizer get some love after getting bumped last year, and Larry Hughes sneaks onto Second Team. Joseph Forte, sorry dude, you had a whale of a year but I don’t see you making it as a sophomore over these seniors.

2001-02

First Team

Actual	Modified
Dan Dickau	Lamar Odom
Juan Dixon	Juan Dixon
Drew Gooden	Drew Gooden
Steve Logan	Troy Murphy
Jason Williams	Jason Williams

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Sam Clancy	Joseph Forte
Mike Dunleavy, Jr.	Stromile Swift
Casey Jacobsen	Mike Miller
Jared Jeffries	Jason Richardson
David West	Rashard Lewis

2002 and 2003 represent a bit of a lull in the incredible young talent in the NBA. It’s the period between Kobe/TMac and LeBron/Carmelo. So in 2002, I kept three of the first teamers in place. Jason Williams loses his POY to Lamar Odom, and Troy Murphy finally gets a well-deserved spot on First Team. Second Team is a clean sweep of NBA players, including Forte, with some redemption from getting bumped the year before.

2002-03

First Team

Actual	Modified
Nick Collison	Joseph Forte
T. J. Ford	Gilbert Arenas
Josh Howard	Jay Williams
Dwayne Wade	Drew Gooden
David West	Jason Richardson

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Carmelo Anthony	T.J. Ford
Troy Bell	David West
Jason Gardner	Josh Howard
Kyle Korver	Dwayne Wade
Hollis Price	Mike Dunleavy

Jay Williams finally gets that National POY award. He is joined on First Team by four other NBA players. Most of the actual First Teamers get bumped to Second Team.

2003-04

First Team

Actual	Modified
Andre Emmett	Carmelo Anthony
Ryan Gomes	Dwayne Wade
Jameer Nelson	Jameer Nelson
Emeka Okafor	Emeka Okafor
Lawrence Roberts	LeBron James

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Josh Childress	Chris Bosh
Devin Harris	Chris Kaman
Julius Hodge	T.J. Ford
Luke Jackson	Lawrence Roberts
Blake Stepp	Zach Randolph

LeBron is here. I was tempted to give him National POY four times, but I think senior Dwayne Wade was better than freshman LeBron. Sophomore Carmelo is on First Team as well, along with two college players who stayed in Jameer Nelson and Emeka Okafor.

2004-05

First Team

Actual	Modified
Andrew Bogut	Andrew Bogut
Dee Brown	Carmelo Anthony
Chris Paul	Emeka Okafor
J. J. Redick	Tyson Chandler
Wayne Simien	Dwight Howard
Hakim Warrick	LeBron James

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Ike Diogu	Chris Paul
Luther Head	J. J. Redick
Sean May	Wayne Simien
Salim Stoudamire	Luol Deng
Deron Williams	T.J. Ford

I think this might be my favorite team. LeBron, Tyson Chandler, Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Carmelo, and Andrew Bogut. It sounds like an NBA All-Star Team. Poor Dee Brown and Hakim Warrick never had a chance.

2005-06

First Team

Actual	Modified
Randy Foye	Carmelo Anthony
Adam Morrison	LeBron James
J. J. Redick	Chris Bosh
Brandon Roy	Dwight Howard
Shelden Williams	Chris Paul

Second Team


Dee Brown	Andrew Bogut
Rodney Carney	Luol Deng
Rudy Gay	J. J. Redick
Tyler Hansbrough	Adam Morrison
Leon Powe	Sean May
Allan Ray	Ike Diogu
P. J. Tucker	Deron Williams

No, I take it back, I think THIS is my favorite team. I couldn’t even find a spot for Andrew Bogut.

2006-07

First Team

Actual	Modified
Arron Afflalo	Chris Paul
Kevin Durant	Kevin Durant
Tyler Hansbrough	LeBron James
Acie Law IV	Dwight Howard
Alando Tucker	Andrew Bogut

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Jared Dudley	Adam Morrison
Nick Fazekas	Luol Deng
Chris Lofton	Al Jefferson
Joakim Noah	LaMarcus Aldridge
Greg Oden	Alando Tucker

Bosh and Carmelo have finally “graduated” and are replaced by Bogut and Kevin Durant. LeBron wins his third straight National POY Award. Luol Deng, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Al Jefferson round out the Second Team, with Alando Tucker managing to hang on to a spot.

2007-08

First Team

Actual	Modified
D. J. Augustin	LaMarcus Aldridge
Michael Beasley	Kevin Durant
Chris Douglas-Roberts	Dwight Howard
Tyler Hansbrough	Tyler Hansbrough
Kevin Love	Chris Paul

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Stephen Curry	Monta Ellis
Shan Foster	Rudy Gay
Luke Harangody	Arron Afflalo
Roy Hibbert	Michael Beasley
Chris Lofton	Joakim Noah
D. J. White	Al Jefferson

Player of the Year was a tough call here, but I had to go with Chris Paul as a senior. He was already a stud in the NBA. Also, Tyler Hansbrough stays on First Team; looking at the guys who made Second Team, I don’t see a good reason to rank any of them over Hansbrough. Rudy Gay, Arron Afflalo, and Joakim Noah reappear on Second Team, a year or two after they actually made it.

2008-09

First Team

Actual	Modified
DeJuan Blair	Michael Beasley
Stephen Curry	Kevin Durant
Blake Griffin	Blake Griffin
Tyler Hansbrough	Tyler Hansbrough
James Harden	Kevin Love

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Sherron Collins	Rudy Gay
Luke Harangody	James Harden
Ty Lawson	Stephen Curry
Jodie Meeks	Brook Lopez
Jeff Teague	Derrick Rose
Hasheem Thabeet	DJ Augustin

I had to go with the “junior” Durant as Player of the Year. Kevin Love edges out James Harden for the last spot on First Team.

NCAA All-Americans Reimagined, Part 2: the 1990s

This is Part 2 of my series in which I’m re-imagining All-American teams for my fantasy world in which all great basketball players play for 4 years in college. In Part 1, we looked at the 1970s and 1980s. In this initial phase, going all the way through 1994, the pattern was quite similar. Each year there were 3-5 players in the NBA who had left college early. While many of these players were great college players, the volume was not enough to really make a mark on the broader landscape of college basketball. It was a blip on the radar. College basketball still had 99.9% of the players of college age, and even 99% of the really good ones. 1995 marks the point at which this began to change. Early departures spiked in 1995 and began the rapid increase which has continued practically to this day, and which has transformed college basketball.

As in Part 1, NBA players are in red and National Players of the Year (Naismith Award) winners are in bold.

1989-90

First Team

Actual	Modified
Derrick Coleman	Derrick Coleman
Chris Jackson	Chris Jackson
Larry Johnson	Larry Johnson
Gary Payton	Gary Payton
Lionel Simmons	Lionel Simmons

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Hank Gathers	Hank Gathers
Kendall Gill	JR Reid
Bo Kimble	Bo Kimble
Alonzo Mourning	Nick Anderson
Rumeal Robinson	Rumeal Robinson
Dennis Scott	Dennis Scott
Doug Smith	Doug Smith

No changes here to first team. And – spoiler alert – this is the last year for which that will be true. I debated putting Rex Chapman on the second team, but couldn’t decide whom to take off.

1990-91

First Team

Actual	Modified
Kenny Anderson	Dennis Scott
Jimmy Jackson	Chris Jackson
Larry Johnson	Larry Johnson
Shaquille O’Neal	Shaquille O’Neal
Billy Owens	Shawn Kemp

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Stacey Augmon	Stacey Augmon
Keith Jennings	Kenny Anderson
Christian Laettner	Christian Laettner
Eric Murdock	Jimmy Jackson
Steve Smith	Billy Owens

Pretty good squad here, don’t you think? Can you imagine Dennis Scott and Chris Jackson/Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf on the same team? Not enough basketballs to go around. And I have to get Shawn Kemp in there.

1991-92

First Team

Actual	Modified
Jimmy Jackson	Jimmy Jackson
Christian Laettner	Christian Laettner
Harold Miner	Kenny Anderson
Alonzo Mourning	Shawn Kemp
Shaquille O’Neal	Shaquille O’Neal

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Byron Houston	Byron Houston
Don MacLean	Harold Miner
Anthony Peeler	Alonzo Mourning
Malik Sealy	Malik Sealy
Walt Williams	Billy Owens

All due respect to Harold Miner aka “Baby Jordan”, but I have to get Kenny Anderson as a senior in there. And Shawn Kemp, who I strongly considered for Player of the Year, but in the end I stuck with Laettner. Alonzo Mourning was a great player, but somebody had to make room for Kemp.

1992-93

First Team

Actual	Modified
Calbert Cheaney	Calbert Cheaney
Penny Hardaway	Harold Miner
Bobby Hurley	Jimmy Jackson
Jamal Mashburn	Jamal Mashburn
Chris Webber	Shaquille O’Neal

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Terry Dehere	Penny Hardaway
Grant Hill	Grant Hill
Billy McCaffrey	Bobby Hurley
Eric Montross	Chris Webber
J. R. Rider	J. R. Rider
Glenn Robinson	Glenn Robinson
Rodney Rogers	Rodney Rogers

An easy player of the year pick with Shaq over Calbert Cheaney. Harold Miner and Jimmy Jackson bump Penny Hardaway and Bobby Hurley to second team.

1993-94

First Team

Actual	Modified
Grant Hill	Penny Hardaway
Jason Kidd	Jason Kidd
Donyell Marshall	Chris Webber
Glenn Robinson	Glenn Robinson
Clifford Rozier	Jamal Mashburn

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Melvin Booker	Rodney Rogers
Eric Montross	Grant Hill
Lamond Murray	Donyell Marshall
Khalid Reeves	Clifford Rozier
Jalen Rose	Jalen Rose
Corliss Williamson	Corliss Williamson

I don’t feel great about bumping Grant Hill to second team, but something has to give. Penny, Webber, and Mashburn have to be there. Player of the Year is a really tough call here, but I’m going with Mashburn.

1994-95

First Team

Actual	Modified
Ed O’Bannon	Chris Webber
Shawn Respert	Donyell Marshall
Joe Smith	Glenn Robinson
Jerry Stackhouse	Jalen Rose
Damon Stoudamire	Jason Kidd

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Randolph Childress	Ed O’Bannon
Kerry Kittles	Shawn Respert
Lou Roe	Joe Smith
Rasheed Wallace	Clifford Rozier
Corliss Williamson	Juwan Howard

This is the year that everything changed. In addition to Webber, who came out the year before, Jalen Rose, Juwan Howard, Jason Kidd, Donyell Marshall, Clifford Rozier, Lamond Murray, and the Big Dog all came out early. This included four of the five first-teamers from the previous year. Joe Smith was National Player of the Year, and he was a great, great, player; but in the end, I couldn’t find a spot for him.

1995-96

First Team

Actual	Modified
Ray Allen	Corliss Williamson
Marcus Camby	Marcus Camby
Tony Delk	Jason Kidd
Tim Duncan	Jerry Stackhouse
Allen Iverson	Joe Smith
Kerry Kittles	Rasheed Wallace

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Danny Fortson	Ray Allen
Keith Van Horn	Tim Duncan
Jacque Vaughn	Allen Iverson
John Wallace	Kerry Kittles
Lorenzen Wright	Gary Trent

Some incredible players getting bumped here, including Ray Allen, Tim Duncan, and Allen Iverson. I’m not necessarily convinced that Duncan would have been the fourth-best player in the ACC had Smith, Stackhouse, and Wallace stayed. I’m only sorry that we didn’t get to find out. What a year it would have been in the ACC. Notice too that Gary Trent, the “Shaq of the MAC”, slips onto Second Team.

1996-97

First Team

Actual	Modified
Tim Duncan	Tim Duncan
Danny Fortson	Joe Smith
Raef LaFrentz	Kevin Garnett
Ron Mercer	Marcus Camby
Keith Van Horn	Jerry Stackhouse

Second Team

Actual	Modi
Chauncey Billups	Rasheed Wallace
Bobby Jackson	Antonio McDyess
Antawn Jamison	Allen Iverson
Brevin Knight	Ray Allen
Jacque Vaughn	Keith Van Horn

The only thing better than imagining Duncan, Stackhouse, Wallace, and Smith as junior is imagining them as seniors. And yet, I couldn’t put them all on First Team because of another emerging star – 19-year old Kevin Garnett. This team is so good that Allen Iverson and Ray Allen can’t crack First Team either.

1997-98

First Team

Actual	Modified
Mike Bibby	Allen Iverson
Antawn Jamison	Antawn Jamison
Raef LaFrentz	Raef LaFrentz
Paul Pierce	Kevin Garnett
Miles Simon	Ron Mercer

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Vince Carter	Danny Fortson
Mateen Cleaves	Kobe Bryant
Pat Garrity	Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Richard Hamilton	Stephon Marbury
Ansu Sesay	Mike Bibby

Allen Iverson finally makes it to First Team as a senior. Notice a couple of new names making their debuts on Second Team – sophomore Kobe Bryant and junior Paul Pierce. The last spot on Second Team was a tough call between Bibby and Raef LaFrentz.

1998-99

First Team

Actual	Modified
Elton Brand	Paul Pierce
Mateen Cleaves	Kobe Bryant
Richard Hamilton	Ron Mercer
Andre Miller	Kevin Garnett
Jason Terry	Antawn Jamison

Second Team

Actual	Modified
Evan Eschmeyer	Elton Brand
Steve Francis	Andre Miller
Trajan Langdon	Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Chris Porter	Stephon Marbury
Wally Szczerbiak	Mike Bibby

Another clean sweep. Elton Brand, you had a really nice year, but who am I leaving off to keep you on First Team? Kobe? Garnett? Paul Pierce? Jamison? I can’t find a spot. I feel bad about leaving Andre Miller off as well, but I don’t see where to put him. Stephon Marbury as a senior, Rip Hamilton and Bibby as juniors, these guys have to be on the list.

That’s it for the 90s. Next up will be the 00s.