thesnac

ACC Football Update 11/20

As we approach the last weekend of the college football regular season, things are becoming clearer. Louisville’s win over Miami clinched the Cardinals’ spot alongside Florida State in the ACC Championship game. Georgia Tech became the ninth ACC team to become bowl-eligible, joining Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Boston College, and Miami. NC State and Clemson won to solidify their positions in the upper tier of ACC bowl teams as Duke, BC, and Miami all lost. Syracuse and Virginia Tech failed to get that sixth win but each can still qualify for a bowl game with a win this weekend.

College Football Playoff outlook

Not much changed this past weekend. All of the zero and one-loss teams won. The most significant event was probably the injury to Jordan Travis. I don’t think this will impact how the selection committee views the Seminoles – at least it shouldn’t – but it does potentially affect their prospects for winning their last two games, which is a must if they want to make the CFP.

I am reasonably confident in saying that any undefeated team is going to make it. Right now, there are five: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, FSU, and Washington. Ohio State and Michigan play on Saturday, so there will be at most four. Some are arguing that a one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, or Michigan would be more deserving than an undefeated FSU or Washington. While that argument is not without merit, ultimately I don’t see the committee leaving out an undefeated conference champion FSU or Washington.

Here is a team-by-team rundown:

Georgia (11-0). The Bulldogs are in with a win over Alabama. They can still make it with a loss if any of the other undefeated teams loses. A fascinating chaos scenario would be if Alabama loses to Auburn but beats Georgia. In this scenario, it’s possible that the SEC would have no one in the playoff although I suspect Georgia would make it.
Ohio State (11-0). Should be safe with a win over Michigan. Could still get in with one loss if FSU or Washington loses.
Michigan (11-0). Should be safe with a win over Ohio State. Could still get in with one loss if FSU or Washington loses.
FSU (11-0). Should be safe with wins over Florida and Louisville. Highly unlikely to get in with a loss.
Washington (11-0). Should be safe with wins over Washington State and in the Pac-12 championship. Highly unlikely to get in with a loss.
Oregon (10-1). It gets interesting here. Obviously they have to beat Oregon State and win the Pac-12 championship. If that happens, does one-loss Oregon get in over the loser of Ohio State-Michigan? I say yes. Also, Alabama beating Georgia is bad for them.
Texas (10-1). Similar situation to Oregon, but I am less certain that the Longhorns would get in over one loss Ohio State/Michigan. If Washington and Oregon both win this weekend, their path gets harder to see.
Alabama (10-1). If they beat Auburn and Georgia, I predict they’re going to jump over the other one-loss teams and be in the playoff.
Louisville (10-1). First, they have to win out. Then they need losses by Washington, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama.

Maximum Chaos Scenario

For the anarchists out there, maximum chaos would be:

Oregon wins the Pac-12
Texas wins the Big 12
Alabama wins the SEC
Louisville wins the ACC
Iowa beats Ohio St/Michigan winner in the Big Ten championship

In this scenario, all nine teams above would have one loss. None of those individual outcomes is farfetched except for Iowa beating Ohio St/Michigan.

ACC Bowl Game Outlook

What’s interesting here is that the teams have sorted themselves into tiers that align well with the ACC bowl game tiers.

Tier	Teams	Bowls
0	Florida State, Louisville	CFP, Orange
1	NC State, UNC, Clemson, Notre Dame	ReliaQuest (formerly Outback), Gator, Holiday, Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It)
2	Duke, BC, Miami, Georgia Tech, and possibly Virginia Tech and/or Syracuse	Pinstripe, Fenway, Military, Duke’s Mayo, Sun

First I will outline the best guesses for where each team goes within each tier. Then I will describe two scenarios that could result in a team getting bumped down a tier.

Within Tier 1, the ReliaQuest will get the first pick, and it seems likely that they will pick Notre Dame. Clemson seems like a good fit for the Holiday Bowl for several reasons: 1) Carolina went to the Holiday last year; 2) NC State still has a bad taste in its mouth from the 2021 debacle with the cancelled game against UCLA; and 3) a Clemson – Oregon State matchup would have an interesting storyline with DJ Uiagalelei facing his former team. NC State has been to the Gator Bowl fairly recently, so most likely Carolina would go there, which would leave the Pop Tarts Bowl in Orlando for NC State.

Within Tier 2, BC seems like an obvious choice for the Fenway Bowl. The other spots may depend on whether Virginia Tech and Syracuse qualify. Here are my best guesses:

Neither VT nor Syracuse qualifies: Duke goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Ga Tech goes to Military
VT qualifies but Syracuse does not: VT goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Ga Tech goes to Military, Duke goes to Pinstripe
Syracuse qualifies but VT does not: Duke goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Syracuse goes to Military, Ga Tech goes to Pinstripe
Both VT and Syracuse qualify: VT goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Ga Tech goes to Military, Duke goes to Pinstripe, Syracuse goes to some other bowl (Birmingham, or First Responder, or something)

I could be wrong about Virginia Tech grabbing the Duke’s Mayo slot from Duke. It’s a hunch.

Now for the complications. There are two. First, if the ACC champion doesn’t make the CFP, then they wind up in the Orange Bowl. Which means the runner up, unless they are selected as an at-large team for a New Year’s Six Bowl, gets bumped down to Tier 1. The cascading effect of that is that one of the Tier 1 teams would get bumped to Tier 2. Who would it be? I think it depends on the result of this week’s games. If Clemson loses, I think it would be them; if Clemson wins, I think it would be the loser of the State-Carolina game.

The other complication has to do with the ReliaQuest Bowl. It’s complicated, but the ACC gets a spot in the ReliaQuest only if the Big Ten gets a spot in the Orange Bowl opposite the ACC. That Orange Bowl slot can go to an SEC team or a Big Ten team. If the Orange Bowl picks an SEC team, then the Big Ten gets the ReliaQuest slot as a consolation prize. If the Orange Bowl picks a Big Ten team, then the ACC (or Notre Dame) gets the ReliaQuest slot.

Most of the experts are predicting that the Ohio State – Michigan loser will get the Orange Bowl slot, and therefore the ACC will get the ReliaQuest slot. I can think of two things that would mess that up. One, if Alabama beats Georgia, and Georgia doesn’t get into the playoff, then Georgia would probably go to the Orange Bowl. Two, if the Ohio State – Michigan loser gets into the playoff, then they obviously wouldn’t be available for the Orange. In that scenario, the Orange Bowl would likely take Alabama although Penn State and Ole Miss are possibilities as well.

Neither of these complications could happen, or one of them could happen, or both of them could happen. If both happen, then only one of NC State, Carolina, and Clemson would get a Tier 1 bowl slot. My guess is that it would be NC State if they win, Clemson if NC State loses and they win, and Carolina if they win and Clemson loses.

ACC Football Update 11/15

Bowl Eligibility

In: Florida State, Louisville, Carolina, State, Miami, BC, Duke, Clemson

One more win: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse

Two more wins: Wake Forest

Out: Pitt, Virginia

ACC Championship Outlook

The first slot is easy – Florida State is in.

The second slot is easy in one sense and hard in another. It’s easy in the sense that it’s highly probable that it will be Louisville – even if they lose to Miami. I’m going to talk at length about the scenarios where it isn’t, but keep in mind that it’s probably going to be Louisville and everything I’m about to say will come to nothing.

Obviously if Louisville beats Miami, they’re in. If they lose, it introduces the possibility of a second place tie with one or more of the two-loss teams: Virginia Tech, NC State, and Carolina. There are four possible tie scenarios:

Louisville – NC State
Louisville – Virginia Tech
Louisville – North Carolina
Louisville – Virginia Tech – North Carolina

Scenarios 1 and 2 are easy. Louisville beat both NC State and Virginia Tech, so they win those scenarios based on head-to-head. NC State has no chance to be in the championship game.

Scenario 3 is trickier, because Louisville and Carolina didn’t play each other. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. Unfortunately, that one doesn’t help either; both teams would be 4-2 against their common opponents (Georgia Tech, NC State, Pitt, Duke, Miami, Virginia). After that, they start looking at common opponents individually, starting at the top of the conference standings and descending until they find a common opponent that one team beat and the other didn’t. In this case, when they do that, the first team they will get to is Georgia Tech, whom Louisville beat and Carolina didn’t. So Louisville wins a two-way tie with Carolina.

Then there is Scenario 4. For three-way ties, here are the tiebreakers in order:

Tiebreaker	How It Will Apply
Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.	Not applicable, Carolina didn’t play VT or Louisville
If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams.	Not applicable, none of the teams beat the other two
Win percentage versus all common opponents.	Common opponents to all three teams are Pitt, NC State, and Virginia. In this scenario, UNC and VT would be 3-0 while Louisville would be 2-1. I assume this means Louisville is out.
Win percentage versus common opponents based on their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.	Doesn’t help. UNC and VT both beat all their common opponents.
Combined win percentage of conference opponents.	As of this moment: VT 25-27 Louisville 22-27 UNC 19-31 VT or Louisville could still win this, or could finish tied. Carolina will finish below VT and Louisville, no matter what.

So based on my reading of the tiebreakers, Virginia Tech wins the three-way tie. Which seems odd, considering Louisville beat Virginia Tech head-to-head, but interestingly, that seems to play no role in the three-team tiebreaker. I see no scenario where Carolina makes the ACC championship game, despite what I have been reading on the Internet in various places.

CFP Outlook

CFP Favorites

The winner of Ohio St – Michigan will be in. Full stop.
The SEC champion will be in, unless Alabama loses to Auburn and then beats Georgia. That would be a bit of a chaos scenario.
Florida State and Washington will probably be in if they finish undefeated.

Wildcards and Chaos Scenarios

If Georgia loses to Alabama, do they make it over FSU or Washington?
Same question for the loser of Ohio State-Michigan?
As mentioned above – if Alabama loses to Auburn but beats Georgia, who makes it from the SEC? My guess is, Georgia would make it.

Who is best positioned to benefit if FSU and/or Washington stumble?

One loss Georgia, although they might make it anyway
Loser of Ohio State – Michigan, although they might make it anyway
Oregon, if they win out
Texas, if they win out

Does anyone outside the current Top 8 in the CFP rankings (Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, FSU, Washington, Oregon, Texas, Alabama) have a chance to make it? What would have to happen?

The only two I can see are Oregon State and Louisville. Oregon State still plays Washington and Oregon, and if they win both of those, they might play Washington again in the Pac-12 championship. If they sweep those three games, that would be a helluva finish. They would still need some help; probably a Texas loss, an Alabama loss, and a Florida State loss. I think that would be enough.

Louisville… well, if they win out, if Texas and Alabama lose, and if Oregon, Washington, and Oregon State all beat up on each other, then maybe they could be the fourth team after Georgia, Ohio State, and Michigan.

ACC Team By Team

Florida State (10-0, 8-0)

Games Remaining: North Alabama, at Florida

Possible Records: 12-0 (63% chance), 11-1 (37%), 10-2 (effectively 0%)

Bowl Possibilities: They’ll be in the playoff if they go undefeated. If they lose to Florida but beat Louisville, they’ll wind up in the Orange Bowl. If they don’t win the ACC championship, they probably still go to a New Year’s Six bowl as an at large.

Louisville (9-1, 6-1)

Games Remaining: at Miami, Kentucky

Possible Records: 11-1 (37% chance), 10-2 (48%), 9-3 (15%)

Bowl Possibilities: They’re probably headed for the Orange Bowl. A very outside possibility of making the playoff. On the other extreme, if they lose two more games, North Carolina could jump over them for the Orange Bowl slot.

North Carolina (8-2, 4-2)

Games Remaining: at Clemson, at NC State

Possible Records: 10-2 (20%), 9-3 (51%), 8-4 (29%)

Bowl Possibilities: They should get a Tier 1 (Gator, Pop Tarts, or Holiday) if they can get to 9 wins with an outside shot at the ReliaQuest. If they win out and if Louisville loses a game or two, they could make the Orange Bowl. I see a very slim chance, but not zero, that they could make one of the other New Year’s Six bowls as an at large team if they win out, even if they don’t make the Orange Bowl.

NC State (7-3, 4-2)

Games Remaining: at Virginia Tech, UNC

Possible Records: 9-3 (25%), 8-4 (50%), 7-5 (25%)

Bowl Possibilities: I think there is an opening for them to get into the Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It) or the Holiday if they can get to 8 wins. ReliaQuest is an outside possibility if they can get to 9. Watch out for Clemson though – if they win their last two, one of the Tier 1 bowls will grab them and bump someone, possibly NC State, to Tier 2.

Virginia Tech (5-5, 4-2)

Games Remaining: NC State, at Virginia

Possible Records: 7-5 (25%), 6-6 (50%), 5-7 (25%)

Bowl Possibilities: If they get to six wins, they could be a good candidate for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte. If they get to seven, which means finishing 6-2 in the ACC, I’m not sure what happens. Could they sneak into the Gator Bowl?

Georgia Tech (5-5, 4-3)

Games Remaining: Syracuse, Georgia

Possible Records: 7-5 (5%), 6-6 (51%), 5-7 (44%)

Bowl Possibilities: They need to beat Syracuse to get to a Tier 2 bowl, probably Military or Pinstripe.

Duke (6-4, 3-3)

Games Remaining: at Virginia, Pitt

Possible Records: 8-4 (43%), 7-5 (45%), 6-6 (12%)

Bowl Possibilities: If they can get to 8 wins, I think they are the next team up for a Tier 1 bowl, probably Holiday, if Clemson stumbles.

Boston College (6-4, 3-3)

Games Remaining: at Pitt, Miami

Possible Records: 8-4 (12%), 7-5 (45%), 6-6 (43%)

Bowl Possibilities: Fenway Bowl would be the logical choice.

Clemson (6-4, 3-4)

Games Remaining: UNC, at South Carolina

Possible Records: 8-4 (40% chance), 7-5 (47%), 6-6 (13%)

Bowl Possibilities: After Notre Dame, they will be the prize. If they get to 8 wins, Tier 1 is a lock, and I could see them going Tier 1 even with 7. If they don’t go to Tier 1, the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte would love to have them.

Miami (6-4, 2-4)

Games Remaining: Louisville, at BC

Possible Records: 8-4 (27%), 7-5 (53%), 6-6 (20%)

Bowl Possibilities: Need to get to 8 wins to be in the Tier 1 conversation (Pop Tarts, Holiday, or Gator). 6 or 7 wins could be Sun Bowl.

Pitt (2-8, 1-5)

Games Remaining: BC, at Duke

Possible Records: 4-8 (22%), 3-9 (56%), 2-10 (22%)

Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.

Virginia (2-8, 1-5)

Games Remaining: Duke, Virginia Tech

Possible Records: 4-8 (17%), 3-9 (49%), 2-10 (34%)

Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.

Syracuse (5-5, 1-5)

Games Remaining: at Georgia Tech, Wake

Possible Records: 7-5 (26%), 6-6 (50%), 5-7 (24%)

Bowl Possibilities: If Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse all qualify, there will be one too many teams for the Tier 2 bowls, which means someone will drop to Tier 3 (Gasparilla/Birmingham/First Responder). My money is on the Orange.

Wake Forest (4-6, 1-6)

Games Remaining: at Notre Dame, at Syracuse

Possible Records: 6-6 (5%), 5-7 (47%), 4-8 (48%)

Bowl Possibilities: Doesn’t look good.

Notre Dame (7-3)

Games Remaining: Wake, at Stanford

Possible Records: 9-3 (75%), 8-4 (23%), 7-5 (2%)

Bowl Possibilities: With two relatively easy games remaining, they’re a virtual lock to go to a Tier 1 or ReliaQuest Bowl. If they finish 9-3, they’ll be the first pick of that group.

ACC Football Update 11/9

Standings Overview

Last week was a busy week in the ACC:

Florida State clinched a spot in the ACC championship game and took another step towards a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Louisville put some distance between themselves and the pack, and they are now the big favorite to face FSU in the ACC championship.
Notre Dame fell out of serious consideration for a New Year’s Six bowl.
NC State, Duke, and Boston College became bowl-eligible.
Clemson and Georgia Tech got big wins and are only one win away from bowl eligibility.
Pitt and Virginia’s chances for bowl eligibility evaporated, confirming their slide into 2023 irrelevance.

Let’s start with the ACC championship. I haven’t seen this confirmed anywhere, but it appears to me that Louisville clinches a spot with a win over Virginia. It would still be possible for them to finish in a tie at 6-2 with one of the current 2-loss teams, but the Cardinals have beaten all of those teams except North Carolina, and it appears to me that they would win a tie with the Tar Heels as well. So I think Louisville has all the tiebreakers.

If Louisville loses to Virginia, then the 2-loss teams (Georgia Tech, Duke, UNC, NC State, BC, Virginia Tech) would still be in the hunt with a win.

We know for sure that teams with 4+ ACC losses are already eliminated from contention for the championship. That includes Clemson, Pitt, Virginia, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.

That leaves Miami as the only 3-loss team. I don’t think they are mathematically eliminated yet, but they will be with a loss or a Louisville win.

In terms of bowl eligibility, FSU, Louisville, UNC, Miami, Boston College, Duke, and NC State are there. Clemson and Georgia Tech need one more win. Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest need two more wins. Pitt and Virginia are eliminated.

Clemson and Georgia Tech play each other this weekend, so the winner will qualify. Georgia Tech still has Syracuse at home, so even if they lose to Clemson they still have a good chance. They had better win one of the next two because they close with Georgia. Virginia Tech is probably 50-50 to get there. Wake and Syracuse still have to play each other, so the winner of that game might make it and the loser probably won’t. I’m holding to my prediction that 10 teams will ultimately become eligible.

ACC Bowl Prospects

In last week’s post, I explained how the ACC’s bowl tie-ins work. I won’t repeat that here. The only update I have is that with their loss to Clemson, Notre Dame is now unlikely to make a New Year’s Six bowl. This means they will steal a slot from an ACC team, and that slot will be one of the Tier 1 bowls or the ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl. Right now I am betting they go to the ReliaQuest.

That ReliaQuest slot could also go to the Big Ten. In that case, Notre Dame will get one of the Tier 1 bowls (probably Holiday or Pop Tarts) and that would leave only two Tier 1 slots for ACC teams. I’m not sure what would make that scenario more likely, but I have a feeling that Penn State beating Michigan might, so maybe pull for Michigan this weekend.

Team By Team

Florida State (9-0, 7-0)

Games Remaining: Miami, North Alabama, at Florida

Possible Records: 12-0 (53% chance), 11-1 (41%), 10-2 (6%), 9-3 (effectively 0%)

Bowl Possibilities: They’ll be in the playoff if they go undefeated with an outside shot to make it with one loss.

Louisville (8-1, 5-1)

Games Remaining: Virginia, at Miami, Kentucky

Possible Records: 11-1 (34% chance), 10-2 (46%), 9-3 (18%), 8-4 (2%)

Bowl Possibilities: Probably going to the Orange Bowl. Where they will probably get their tails kicked. They could make the playoff if they win out.

Georgia Tech (5-4, 4-2)

Games Remaining: at Clemson, Syracuse, Georgia

Possible Records: 8-4 (1%), 7-5 (14%), 6-6 (51%), 5-7 (34%)

Bowl Possibilities: They need “only” one more win, but two of the games are really tough. Most likely scenario is a win against Syracuse and a Tier 2 bowl, probably Military or Pinstripe.

North Carolina (7-2, 3-2)

Games Remaining: Duke, at Clemson, at NC State

Possible Records: 10-2 (12%), 9-3 (40%), 8-4 (37%), 7-5 (11%)

Bowl Possibilities: I’m still thinking Gator or Pop Tarts if they can get to 9 wins with an outside shot at the ReliaQuest. 8 wins might be enough for Tier 1, but that would probably depend on other teams like Duke, NC State, and Clemson.

Duke (6-3, 3-2)

Games Remaining: at UNC, at Virginia, Pitt

Possible Records: 9-3 (16%), 8-4 (44%), 7-5 (33%), 6-6 (7%)

Bowl Possibilities: If they can get to 8 wins, I like them for the Holiday Bowl. If not, Sun Bowl perhaps?

NC State (6-3, 3-2)

Games Remaining: at Wake, at Virginia Tech, UNC

Possible Records: 9-3 (11%), 8-4 (37%), 7-5 (39%), 6-6 (13%)

Bowl Possibilities: With the win over Miami, I think there is an opening for them to get into the Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It) if they can get to 8 or 9 wins. Watch out for Clemson though – if they finish strong, one of the Tier 1 bowls will grab them and bump someone, possibly NC State, to Tier 2.

Boston College (6-3, 3-2)

Games Remaining: Virginia Tech, at Pitt, Miami

Possible Records: 9-3 (7%), 8-4 (31%), 7-5 (43%), 6-6 (19%)

Bowl Possibilities: Fenway Bowl would be the logical choice. Probably need to win out to get into the Tier 1 conversation.

Virginia Tech (4-5, 3-2)

Games Remaining: at BC, NC State, at Virginia

Possible Records: 7-5 (12%), 6-6 (36%), 5-7 (39%), 4-8 (13%)

Bowl Possibilities: A lot of work to do. If they do get to six wins, they could be a good candidate for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte – if they can’t get Clemson.

Miami (6-3, 2-3)

Games Remaining: at FSU, Louisville, at BC

Possible Records: 9-3 (4%), 8-4 (27%), 7-5 (48%), 6-6 (21%)

Bowl Possibilities: Need to get to 8 wins to be in the Tier 1 conversation (Pop Tarts, Holiday, or Gator). 6 or 7 wins could be Sun Bowl.

Clemson (5-4, 2-4)

Games Remaining: Georgia Tech, UNC, at South Carolina

Possible Records: 8-4 (34% chance), 7-5 (45%), 6-6 (19%), 5-7 (2%)

Bowl Possibilities: After Notre Dame, they will be the prize. If they get to 8 wins, Tier 1 is a lock, and I could see them going Tier 1 even with 7. If they don’t go to Tier 1, I predict they’ll go to Charlotte and play in Duke’s Mayo.

Pitt (2-7, 1-4)

Games Remaining: at Syracuse, BC, at Duke

Possible Records: 5-7 (13%), 4-8 (41%), 3-9 (36%), 2-10 (10%)

Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.

Virginia (2-7, 1-4)

Games Remaining: at Louisville, Duke, Virginia Tech

Possible Records: 5-7 (2%), 4-8 (21%), 3-9 (47%), 2-10 (30%)

Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.

Wake Forest (4-5, 1-5)

Games Remaining: NC State, at Notre Dame, at Syracuse

Possible Records: 7-5 (4%), 6-6 (31%), 5-7 (46%), 4-8 (19%)

Bowl Possibilities: They need to beat NC State on Saturday or they probably aren’t going anywhere. If they do qualify, Military or Pinstripe seem like the most likely possibilities.

Syracuse (4-5, 0-5)

Games Remaining: Pitt, at Georgia Tech, Wake

Possible Records: 7-5 (9%), 6-6 (34%), 5-7 (41%), 4-8 (16%)

Bowl Possibilities: They look dead, but the schedule keeps them in it. They would seem to be a fit for the Pinstripe if they can get to six.

Notre Dame (7-3)

Games Remaining: bye week, Wake, at Stanford

Possible Records: 9-3 (75%), 8-4 (23%), 7-5 (2%)

Bowl Possibilities: They’re almost a lock to go to a Tier 1 or ReliaQuest Bowl. If they finish 9-3, they’ll be the first pick of that group.

ACC Football Update 11/2

Standings Overview

With four weeks left in the college football regular season, some things are starting to come into focus.

Florida State will make the College Football Playoff if they don’t lose a game, and they could make it even if they do.

Florida State is going to be in the ACC championship. They haven’t clinched yet, there are some tiebreaker scenarios where they don’t make it, but it’s a near certainty at this point.

If Louisville beats Virginia Tech this weekend, then the Cardinals have the clear inside track on the second spot. If the Hokies win, that throws things into a bit of chaos and gives all the two-loss teams hope.

After Louisville, there is tremendous parity. The gap between third place Virginia Tech and last place Syracuse is not large.

And almost no one has been eliminated from anything yet. There are too many games left. There are still scenarios where the four-loss teams – Clemson, Wake Forest, and Syracuse – could finish in a tie for second place. I don’t know if they could win the tiebreakers and make the ACC Championship, but it’s not completely off the table. The three- and two-loss teams are still in the hunt for a spot in the championship, but they probably need to win out.

In terms of bowl eligibility, FSU, Louisville, Carolina, and Miami are there. Boston College, Duke, and NC State are almost there. Clemson, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech have a lot of work to do. And Pitt and Virginia are almost done. I’d say the over/under on bowl eligible teams from the ACC right now is 10.

ACC Bowl Prospects

Let’s remind ourselves of the ACC’s bowl tie-ins and how the selections work. It’s quite complex, and there is some conflicting information on the Internet, but here is what I have pieced together.

The best way to think of it is in tiers:

ACC Champion (“Tier 0”): Orange Bowl

Tier 1: Holiday Bowl, Gator Bowl, Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It/Camping World/Russell Athletic/etc.) Bowl

Tier 2: Pinstripe Bowl, Duke’s Mayo Bowl, Fenway Bowl, Military Bowl, Sun Bowl

Tier 3: Gasparilla Bowl, Birmingham Bowl, First Responder Bowl

Think of the tiers as the draft order. The Tier 1 bowls get together and pick their three; then the Tier 2 bowls get together and pick their five from the teams that are left; then the Tier 3 bowls get the leftovers. Last year, the only bowl-eligible team left after Tier 2 was Wake Forest, so they went to the Gasparilla.

Within each tier, the decisions about who goes where are opaque and are presumably made by a cadre of conference and bowl officials, based on fan interest, attractiveness of matchup, and how recently a school has been to that particular bowl.

Now where it gets really complicated is, there are three “wild cards” that can affect the order I just laid out. Two of them take the form of an additional ACC bowl slot that has the effect of pulling everyone up one rung on the ladder. The third has the opposite effect: it essentially steals a bowl from an ACC team and pushes everyone down a rung. Let’s go over these potential wild cards.

Wild Card #1: College Football Playoff

If the ACC Champion finishes in the Top 4 of the CFP rankings, they go to the College Football Playoff. If this happens, the highest-ranked team after the champion goes to the Orange Bowl, and everyone else gets pulled up one rung. This is a strong possibility for Florida State.

Wild Card #2: The ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl

The ReliaQuest Bowl features an SEC team against either a Big Ten team or an ACC team. The choice depends on whether the Orange Bowl chooses an SEC team or a Big Ten team. If they choose the Big Ten, then the ACC gets the Big Ten’s slot in the ReliaQuest Bowl and everyone below gets pulled up one rung. This arrangement has been in place for a few years, but the ACC has never landed in this bowl. This year, it seems like there is a decent chance that a one-loss Big Ten team (Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State) will wind up in the Orange Bowl and the ACC will get the ReliaQuest slot.

Wild Card #3: Notre Dame

Notre Dame can be selected instead of an ACC team for the ACC’s Tier 1 and Tier 2 bowl slots (they are not eligible for the Orange Bowl). The upshot is that if Notre Dame does not make a New Year’s Six bowl, they probably steal a bowl slot from an ACC team and push everyone down one rung. This year, I think the Irish have a great chance to make the New Year’s Six as a two-loss team.

So if you’re a fan of one of the middle of the pack teams, and you’re hoping to get to a Tier 1 bowl, you should be rooting for:

Florida State to win out and make the CFP
Notre Dame to win out and make the New Year’s Six
The Big Ten to make the Orange Bowl instead of the SEC. It’s very complicated to know exactly what to pull for in order for that to come about.

If all of that were to happen, then Florida State would go to the CFP, the next highest team from the ACC (let’s say Louisville) would go to the Orange, the next best team from the ACC (let’s say Carolina) would go to the ReliaQuest, and the next three teams (let’s say Duke, Miami, and NC State) would go to the Gator, Holiday, and Pop Tarts.

On the other extreme, if none of those three things happens, then the ACC Champ (let’s say FSU) would go to the Orange, Notre Dame would steal one of the Tier 1 bowls, and there would be only two Tier 1 slots left for, say, Louisville and Carolina, and everyone else would be relegated to Tier 2/3.

Team By Team

Florida State (8-0, 4-0)

Games Remaining: at Pitt, Miami, North Alabama, at Florida

Possible Records: 12-0 (37%), 11-1 (45%), 10-2 (16%), 9-3 (2%), 8-4 (effectively 0%)

Bowl Possibilities: They’ll be in the playoff if they go undefeated. I think they have a decent chance to make the playoff with one loss.

Louisville (7-1, 4-1)

Games Remaining: Virginia Tech, Virginia, at Miami, Kentucky

Possible Records: 11-1 (23%), 10-2 (42%), 9-3 (27%), 8-4 (7%), 7-5 (1%)

Bowl Possibilities: They have a great shot at the Orange Bowl if Florida State winds up in the CFP. If they beat Virginia Tech on Saturday, that doesn’t quite clinch a spot in the ACC Championship game, but it gets them close.

Virginia Tech (4-4, 3-1)

Games Remaining: at Louisville, at BC, NC State, at Virginia

Possible Records: 8-4 (3%), 7-5 (19%), 6-6 (38%), 5-7 (31%), 4-8 (9%)

Bowl Possibilities: Of all the teams on this list, the widest range of possibilities. If they can beat Louisville on Saturday, suddenly they have the inside track to be in the ACC Championship game. On the other hand, they could easily wind up with a losing record. A 6- or 7-win Virginia Tech would be attractive for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte.

North Carolina (6-2, 3-2)

Games Remaining: Campbell, Duke, at Clemson, at NC State

Possible Records: 10-2 (12%), 9-3 (38%), 8-4 (37%), 7-5 (12%), 6-6 (1%)

Bowl Possibilities: I’m guessing Gator or Pop Tarts if they can get to 9 wins. 8 might be enough.

Georgia Tech (4-4, 3-2)

Games Remaining: at Virginia, at Clemson, Syracuse, Georgia

Possible Records: 8-4 (<1%), 7-5 (5%), 6-6 (27%), 5-7 (45%), 4-8 (23%)

Bowl Possibilities: I have them as only a 33% chance to become bowl eligible. If they do make it, they might be a candidate for the Military, or maybe Tier 3.

Duke (5-3, 2-2)

Games Remaining: Wake, at UNC, at Virginia, Pitt

Possible Records: 9-3 (10%), 8-4 (33%), 7-5 (37%), 6-6 (17%), 5-7 (3%)

Bowl Possibilities: A wide range of possibilities. If they can get to 8 wins, I like them in the Holiday Bowl. If not, Sun Bowl perhaps?

Miami (6-2, 2-2)

Games Remaining: at NC State, at FSU, Louisville, at BC

Possible Records: 10-2 (3%), 9-3 (18%), 8-4 (38%), 7-5 (32%), 6-6 (9%)

Bowl Possibilities: A very challenging schedule the rest of the way. Probably not going to win in Tallahassee and the other games are close to toss-ups. 9-3 or even 8-4 Miami would be attractive for one of the Tier 1 bowls (Pop Tarts, Holiday, or Gator). 6 or 7 wins could be Sun Bowl.

NC State (5-3, 2-2)

Games Remaining: Miami, at Wake, at Virginia Tech, UNC

Possible Records: 9-3 (5%), 8-4 (23%), 7-5 (38%), 6-6 (27%), 5-7 (7%)

Bowl Possibilities: Four games left that are close to toss-ups. They could go just about anywhere. If I had to bet right now, I’d bet Military or Pinstripe. Need to get to 8 wins to think about a Tier 1.

Boston College (5-3, 2-2)

Games Remaining: at Syracuse, Virginia Tech, at Pitt, Miami

Possible Records: 9-3 (2%), 8-4 (14%), 7-5 (34%), 6-6 (36%), 5-7 (14%)

Bowl Possibilities: Gotta be the Fenway Bowl, right?

Clemson (4-4, 2-4)

Games Remaining: Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, UNC, at South Carolina

Possible Records: 8-4 (13% chance), 7-5 (38%), 6-6 (35%), 5-7 (13%), 4-8 (1%)

Bowl Possibilities: Their first step is to get bowl-eligible. If they lose to Notre Dame on Saturday, that is in jeopardy. They would be very attractive for the Gator at 7-5 or the Duke’s Mayo or Sun at 6-6.

Pitt (2-6, 1-3)

Games Remaining: FSU, at Syracuse, BC, at Duke

Possible Records: 6-6 (3%), 5-7 (20%), 4-8 (40%), 3-9 (29%), 2-10 (7%)

Bowl Possibilities: Probably will not be bowl-eligible.

Virginia (2-6, 1-3)

Games Remaining: Georgia Tech, at Louisville, Duke, Virginia Tech

Possible Records: 6-6 (2%), 5-7 (15%), 4-8 (37%), 3-9 (35%), 2-10 (11%)

Bowl Possibilities: Probably will not be bowl-eligible.

Wake Forest (4-4, 1-4)

Games Remaining: at Duke, NC State, at Notre Dame, at Syracuse

Possible Records: 8-4 (1%), 7-5 (13%), 6-6 (35%), 5-7 (37%), 4-8 (13%)

Bowl Possibilities: A tough remaining schedule. I don’t like their chances to get to bowl eligibility. If they do, they could go Military or Pinstripe.

Syracuse (4-4, 0-4)

Games Remaining: BC, Pitt, at Georgia Tech, Wake

Possible Records: 8-4 (7%), 7-5 (27%), 6-6 (38%), 5-7 (23%), 4-8 (5%)

Bowl Possibilities: The wheels appear to be coming off, but the remaining schedule is very favorable. BC game seems like their last stand if they are going to salvage anything from this season. They are a natural for the Pinstripe Bowl, but they went there last year. Possibly Military, or could drop to a Tier 3 if there are enough bowl-eligible teams.

Notre Dame (7-2)

Games Remaining: at Clemson, Wake, at Stanford

Possible Records: 10-2 (46%), 9-3 (43%), 8-4 (10%), 7-5 (1%)

Bowl Possibilities: If they can beat Clemson on Saturday, I predict they will wind up in a New Year’s Six bowl as a 2-loss team. If that doesn’t happen, they will take a spot from an ACC team in the Pop Tarts or Holiday Bowl.

Final Bracket

I’m posting this bracket while the AAC and Big 10 Championship games are still in progress. I wish they would move those earlier in the day. It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Purdue. If Purdue loses, I would move Texas to the top line and drop Purdue to a 2. However, because of the timing of the game, the committee may have to make a final decision before the end of the game. This also impacts Penn State; if they beat Purdue, they deserve to move up to a 9. But again, the committee may not be able to consider that because of timing.

I think Houston is a #1 regardless of the outcome of the AAC game, but if Memphis wins, I would move them up a line and move Miami down.

I’ve spent a lot of time looking at the last few teams and trying to make sense of how the committee might view them. And my final answer is to go with Arizona State as my last team in, for one reason: they have five Quad 1 wins, and not one of them was at home. Their resume has a lot of weaknesses; 5-5 against Quad 2 and a Quad 4 loss is not good, and the computers don’t particularly like them. But when push comes to shove, win quality is more important than any other single factor for the committee, and the Sun Devils have it. I think that will make the difference.

Of course I’m always interested in NC State. Their situation seems to have deteriorated in the past couple of days, probably as the bracketologists reflect on their three losses to Clemson and, consciously or unconsciously, are bothered by the Wolfpack being ahead of the Tigers in the pecking order.

But I still think they’re going to make it. Their 7-4 Quad 2 record is very good, and they have no bad losses. Their wins over Duke, Dayton, Vanderbilt, and Furman have aged well as those teams played well down the stretch.

If you’re watching the Selection Show and you want to know when the moment of truth has arrived, here’s what you do. Get a piece of paper and write down these teams: Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Nevada, Clemson, Pitt. Every time one of them is announced – pay special attention to the 10 and 11 seeds – cross it off. When you’ve crossed off six teams, that’s it. The other three are not going to make it.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue
Texas, UCLA, Arizona, Gonzaga
Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Xavier
Tennessee, Kansas State, Duke, San Diego State
Texas A&M, Virginia, Indiana, St. Mary’s
Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Memphis
Miami, Florida Atlantic, Creighton, West Virginia
Arkansas, Utah State, Michigan State, Missouri
Northwestern, Boise State, Auburn, Maryland
Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, USC
Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State
College of Charleston, VCU, Drake, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, Furman
Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont, Grand Canyon
Colgate, Princeton, Montana State, UNC Asheville
Northern Kentucky, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Howard, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern

Last Four Byes: Iowa, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State

First Four Out: Nevada, Clemson, Pitt, Vanderbilt

Bracket Update 3/11

With one day left until Selection Sunday, most teams’ fate is sealed. I now have 40 locks, five teams that are Probably In, and five teams in competition for the last spot in the field.

I have to admit a couple of mea culpas. One is, I have “de-locked” Providence, which should never happen. Once a team is a lock, they should stay a lock. But Providence has really fallen apart down the stretch and I now think it’s possible, though unlikely, that they could miss the field.

The other is, I’ve added Vanderbilt to the list of bubble teams. When I looked at it last week, I thought they were too far out to possibly get an at-large bid. With their win over Kentucky, that now seems possible.

On to the lists.

Locks (40):

Big 10 (8) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (4) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (3) – San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

Probably In (5):

90% Chance: Rutgers

80% Chance: Mississippi State, NC State

75% Chance: Providence

70% Chance: Oklahoma State

Last Bid:

At this point, there are five teams who could conceivably hear their names called for the last bid: Nevada, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Arizona State, and Pitt. Of the five, only Vanderbilt is still playing. If they win two more games, they are the SEC champions and there is no more debate. Even if they win today against Texas A&M but lose in the final, I think they will get the bid. But let’s assume Vandy loses today. Then I’m going with Clemson, with Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, and Pitt following in that order.

This is a bit of a gut feel pick. My model says that Nevada has the best resume. But they finished the season really poorly and I think the committee will deduct something for that. I also think there has been a groundswell of support for Clemson from various sources in the media, although maybe that’s just my ACC bias, and that may have an impact on the committee. There may also be an element of unconscious sympathy towards the ACC, especially if they are going to leave Pitt out, as I think they will.

Keep in mind that bid stealing is still possible. Vanderbilt could win the SEC tournament, Ohio State is alive in the Big 10 Tournament, and a couple of teams are still alive in the AAC Tournament who could grab that last bid. If there are multiple bid thefts, I think Oklahoma State is the most likely of the Probables to be left out.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold, tickets punched underlined):

Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
UCLA, Texas, Gonzaga, Arizona
Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Tennessee
Xavier, Kansas State, San Diego State, Virginia
Indiana, St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, Duke
Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Miami
Michigan State, Creighton, Northwestern, Florida Atlantic
Arkansas, West Virginia, Memphis, Boise State
Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Auburn
Illinois, Iowa, Penn State, USC
Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson
College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Iona, Yale, Furman
Louisiana, Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont
Colgate, UNC Asheville, Southern Utah, Montana State
Northern Kentucky, Grambling, Norfolk State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson

Last Four Byes: Penn State, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson

First Four Out: Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, Pitt

Bubble Watch 3/9

Moving off the bubble list yesterday was NC State, who moved to a Lock with their win over Virginia Tech. Although ironically, NC State beat the Hokies so badly that they knocked them out of the top 75 in the NET – which means the Wolfpack’s win in Blacksburg is no longer a Quad 1. But it doesn’t matter. They’re in.

Bubble Team Ranking:

In 6 – Utah State

In 5 – Oklahoma State

In 4 – Nevada

In 3 – Penn State

In 2 – Mississippi State

In 1 – Pitt

Out 1 – Rutgers

Out 2 – Arizona State

Out 3 – North Carolina

Out 4 – Wisconsin

Out 5 – Oregon

Out 6 – Michigan

Out 7 – Clemson

Commentary on today’s games:

Utah State – next game today vs. New Mexico (NET 50)

With a win – this is an interesting one, because right now New Mexico is 50 in the NET, which is the cutoff for a Quad 1 win on a neutral court. But beating them may knock them down in the NET, making it a Quad 2. The vagaries of the NET. I’m not quite ready to call the Aggies a Lock with a win here, but they’re headed in that direction.
With a loss – by the same logic, if New Mexico wins, they probably will move up in the NET and this becomes a Quad 1 loss for Utah State. I think they still have a chance and it will depend on what the other teams do.

Oklahoma State – next game today vs. Texas (NET 9)

With a win – OSU becomes a lock.
With a loss – OSU finishes their regular season at 18-15. Losing to Texas on a neutral court doesn’t really hurt you, but the Cowboys are on thin ice as it is. They will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Nevada – next game today vs. San Jose State (NET 96)

With a win – this is a Quad 2, just barely. It helps marginally, I guess, but it’s really more about avoiding the loss.
With a loss – Nevada is in trouble if they lose this game. They too will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Penn State – next game today vs. Illinois (NET 33)

With a win – this is a solid Quad 1 opponent. I can’t say it makes them a Lock, but they would go to the head of the bubble pack, and the other teams would have to do some extraordinary things to keep the Nittany Lions out.
With a loss – a Quad 1 loss doesn’t really hurt their resume, but they’re on thin ice as it is. Probably no better than 50-50 they get in if they lose today.

Mississippi State – next game today vs. Florida (NET 59)

With a win – Quad 2 opponent. Every little bit helps, but certainly doesn’t make them a Lock.
With a loss – I don’t like their chances. It would depend on what other teams do.

Pitt – next game today vs. Duke (NET 25)

With a win – I’m not sure my model would agree, but my gut says Pitt is a Lock if they win. Duke is really playing well right now. A neutral court win over the Blue Devils is the final validation Pitt needs.
With a loss – I really don’t know. I don’t think they’ll make it, but other Bracketologists have them higher for whatever reason. They certainly look like a tournament team with the “eye test”, but I’m not sure the committee cares.

Rutgers – next game today vs. Michigan (NET 54)

With a win – it’s a Quad 2, but because Michigan is a fellow bubble team, this win has a little more cachet than, say, Nevada beating San Jose State. But it certainly doesn’t make Rutgers a lock.
With a loss – I don’t think they’re going to make it. I can’t rule it out until I see what everyone else does.

Arizona State – next game today vs. USC (NET 48)

With a win – it’s a Quad 1 win for now, but similar to the Utah State comment, the act of beating USC may knock them down enough in the NET so that it’s not a Quad 1 anymore. Beat them, but don’t beat them badly, I guess. Regardless, it’s a really good win and would move Arizona State toward the head of this pack of teams right around the cut line.
With a loss – similar to Rutgers, I don’t think they’ll make it, but with their four Quad 1 wins, it can’t be ruled out.

North Carolina – next game today vs. Virginia (NET 30)

With a win – the Tar Heels move to a 60% chance to make it with a win today.
With a loss – they’re done.

Wisconsin (regular season over)

The Badgers have no games left to improve their standing. Could they possibly make it? I can’t completely remove a team with six Quad 1 wins. But I would rate their chances at 10% or less.

Oregon – next game today vs. Washington State (NET 69)

With a win – a win doesn’t mean much. Oregon has to do a lot more than beat Washington State if they’re going to make it.
With a loss – they’re done.

Michigan – next game today vs. Rutgers (NET 43)

With a win – it’s a solid Quad 1 win and will move the Wolverines up considerably in the pecking order, but their situation would still be precarious.
With a loss – they’re done.

Clemson – next game today vs. NC State (NET 37)

With a win – would be a solid Quad 1 for the Tigers, their third win over NC State, and would help cancel out the Tigers’ bad losses. But it seems unlikely that this win alone will be enough to get the Tigers in.
With a loss – they’re done.

Bubble Action 3/8

Quick update on the six bubble teams in action today.

NC State can move to a Lock on my board with a win over Virginia Tech.

North Carolina and Arizona State are fighting to stay alive. The Tar Heels are definitely done if they lose to BC. Arizona State might still have a faint pulse with a loss to Oregon State, but they would be a long shot.

Oklahoma State and Wisconsin are both in similar positions. They are both around the cut line. You can’t rule them out if they lose today, but you can’t say they’re in if they win either. A loss probably hurts more than a win helps. Both are playing conference rivals who are better than their record would indicate.

Then there’s Pitt. The Panthers play Georgia Tech this afternoon. I say they are out if they lose, but there is a lot of disagreement about Pitt among Bracketologists, and not everyone would agree. But it does seem that the community is coming around a bit to my point of view. Only 73 of the 89 brackets on bracketmatrix.com have them in. Jerry Palm of cbssports.com still has them as a 9 seed, which is a fantasy.

Bubble Update 3/5

It has been a busy weekend in bubble land.

West Virginia, Auburn, and USC moved up to Locks with their wins over Kansas State, Tennessee, and Arizona State respectively
Penn State and Oklahoma State got huge wins to move them up in the bubble pecking order
Nevada had a damaging home loss to UNLV which makes their position precarious
Mississippi State, Arizona State, North Carolina, and Pitt failed to get the wins they needed to solidify their positions
Utah State got their first Quad 1 win against Boise State

As I write this, Wisconsin and Rutgers haven’t played yet. Wisconsin’s game against Minnesota won’t help them if they win, but it will hurt them if they lose. If Rutgers can beat Northwestern, I think it will move them to a Lock.

I need to correct and clarify a couple of things from Friday’s post. One, I was unclear about the status of Florida Atlantic. I do consider them a lock. If someone else wins the Conference USA Tournament, the Owls will get in and that will be a bid steal.

Also, I neglected to include Utah State in my list of bubble teams. I’m not sure how that happened, but in any case, they are definitely in that group. In fact, with their win over Boise State, I think they would be in if the tournament started today.

With that, let’s run through the updated lists.

Locks (39):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

In for Now (2):

With their losses yesterday, I am moving Nevada and Mississippi State down into the bubble group. I am no longer convinced that they would be in if the tournament started today. The only two teams I am certain would be in today are:

Rutgers – I’m moving them to a lock if they can beat Northwestern today.

NC State – they probably benefited from not playing yesterday while a number of bubble teams around them lost. If they beat Virginia Tech on Wednesday, I’ll move them to a Lock.

Bubble Teams (5 bids available, 12 teams):

At this moment, my five bids would go to Nevada, Utah State, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Penn State. Or maybe Wisconsin. With their loss to Oklahoma State yesterday, Texas Tech is off the list. Teams are listed in rank order.

Nevada – killer home loss to UNLV. They cannot afford to lose in the quarters of the Mountain West Tournament. Depending on what else happens, they may need to get to the Mountain West final.

Utah State – yes, they only have one Quad 1 win, but there is precedent for that. 8-1 against Quad 2 is outstanding. They are number 21 in the NET. No team ranked in the top 25 in the NET has ever been left out. They’re probably headed for a MWC Tournament semifinal rubber match with Boise State. A win there should clinch it for Utah State.

Mississippi State – they are hanging by a thread. Unless they make a run in the SEC Tournament, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Oklahoma State – with their win over Texas Tech, I have them in right now, but it’s precarious. They need to beat Oklahoma on Wednesday, and then they’ll get a chance to end all doubt with a quarterfinal against Texas. If they don’t win that, they’ll be sweating it out.

Penn State – the Lions got their second straight big win on Sunday over Maryland. That puts them on the right side of the cut line, but their position is anything but safe. They need to win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament, at a minimum.

Wisconsin – if they can avoid a bad loss against Minnesota today, their 6 Quad 1 wins will be hard to keep out. Their NET is 78, which would be the lowest to ever get an at-large bid.

Pitt – is it possible that the ACC could get only four teams in? Yup. I don’t see why Lunardi and Jerry Palm have Pitt in. What about their resume is better than, say, Wisconsin or Arizona State? Maybe they know something I don’t about the committee, but looking strictly at their resume, it’s not good enough. I say they have to beat Duke on Thursday or they’re not getting in.

North Carolina – they have to beat Boston College and Virginia to get to the semis of the ACC Tournament. Otherwise they are not getting in. Even that would not be a guarantee; it might take a run to the finals.

Michigan – Jerry Palm has them in right now. I don’t see it. Beat Indiana today, and now we’re talking. My guess is, that won’t be quite enough. They’ll need to get to the semis of the Big 10 Tournament.

Arizona State – they needed to beat USC and they didn’t. They’ll probably play Oregon in the Pac-12 quarters. Consider that an elimination game. My guess is that the winner will need to beat UCLA in the semis to get in.

Oregon – just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final.

Clemson – they need to pull for NC State to win on Wednesday, because beating Virginia Tech doesn’t do them any good. They have to beat the Wolfpack or they have no shot. To have a realistic shot, they have to make the ACC Tournament final.

Bubble Watch 3/3

As we head into the final weekend of the regular season, it’s time to survey the bubble. Who’s in, who’s out, and who has work to do.

I think the most compelling story is how the committee will handle the ACC. Will the ACC be graded on the curve, or will they be treated like the seventh-best conference in the country, which they are, according to the NET? Pitt, North Carolina, Clemson, and arguably NC State are bubble teams. And if you’re looking at blind resumes without regard to the conference or the name on the front of the jersey, which is what the committee claims to do, I would say that only NC State is in, and that not by much. Pitt and UNC are right around the cut line, and Clemson is out. But many of the Bracketology talking heads have NC State and Pitt comfortably in, and Clemson knocking at the door. It seems they are anticipating that the committee will be influenced by the brand and the historical reputation of the ACC. We’re getting into the realm of psychology, which is dangerous, but the committee are human, and you know that conversation will happen. “Are we really going to leave out a team that went 14-6 in the ACC?” It’s a test to see how committed they are to their principles.

Now to the detail. Let’s remind ourselves of how this works. There are 68 teams in the tournament. 23 of those bids will come from the tournament champions of one-bid leagues. That leaves 45 bids, 9 automatic bids and 36 at-large bids, for teams from the nine multi-bid leagues: the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, SEC, American, Mountain West, and West Coast. I’m going to focus on those 45 spots. I will put them into three categories: Locks, In for Now, and Bubble Teams. Locks means just that – they are going to make the tournament no matter what happens the rest of the way. In for Now are teams that would make the tournament if selections were being made today but are not totally secure due to the possibilities of bad losses, bid stealers, and idiosyncratic decisions by the committee. Bubble Teams are close to the cut line and have a non-trivial chance to earn an at-large bid. Keep in mind that the number of Bubble Teams who actually receive bids depends on the number of bid stealers. As a reminder, a bid steal happens when a team from one of the nine multi-bid leagues above who would not otherwise have made it as an at-large wins the conference tournament. This means that a spot must be made for them, and the result is that the last at-large team in the field gets bumped out. Any team not listed has no chance to earn an at-large bid in my estimation.

Locks (35):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (6) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State

SEC (6) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (2) – UCLA, Arizona

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Probably the most controversial team here as a Lock is Memphis. They have only two Quad 1 wins. However, their 8-3 Quad 2 record is very good. Since 2016, only two teams with 8+ Quad 2 wins have been left out of the field: Nevada 2017, who had zero Quad 1 wins, and Butler 2019, who had one. Their last regular season game is against Houston, so it won’t hurt them much even if they lose. I guess if they got blown out by Houston and lost to, say, SMU in the quarterfinals of the AAC tourney, they would be nervous. But they would still make it, I think.

In for Now (7):

West Virginia – West Virginia is a tournament team. I am tempted to make them a Lock. They have five Quad 1 wins. Since 2016, there have been 10 teams with 5+ Quad 1 wins who got left out of the field. All but one of them had 5+ losses to Quads 2/3/4. WVU has one. None of them was ranked higher than 38 in the RPI/NET. WVU is 24. The only reason I don’t have them as a lock is their overall record. They could finish 17-15, considering their last game is against Kansas State with the Big 12 tourney to follow. Since 2016, only one team that was two games over .500 has made it as an at-large (Maryland 2021). I think the Mountaineers would be the second, but I can’t be sure. The committee seems to have a line they don’t like to cross.

Auburn – I think the Tigers will get in, but there is precedent for a team like them getting left out. NC State 2019 was pretty similar – not many Quad 1 wins but good Quad 2 record, not many bad losses, solid NET. NC State that year was punished for playing a weak non-conference schedule, and Auburn doesn’t have that problem. Their last regular season game is at home against Tennessee. That would be an opportunity for them to eliminate all doubt. They will probably play Mississippi State, Arkansas, or Florida in the SEC Tourney. If they lose to Tennessee and then lose that game, they’ll be sweating it. One more win should do it.

USC – They would definitely get in if the tournament started today, but they can’t afford a slip-up. Texas A&M last year had a very similar resume, and they got left out. They play Arizona State at home on Saturday, and then they’ll play somebody like Washington State or Utah in the quarters of the Pac-12 Tournament. Win both of those games, and they’re a lock. Lose one, they’ll probably make it but it will be tight. Lose both and they’re probably sunk.

Nevada – They have four Quad 1 wins and a NET of 32. Nobody has ever been left out with that profile. The only reason I don’t call them a lock is, they still have the opportunity for a couple of bad losses. UNLV at home to close the regular season, then maybe San Jose State in the quarters of the Mountain West tournament. Lose both of those games and they’re in trouble.

Mississippi State – the Bulldogs have four Quad 1 wins, two of which are outstanding – at Arkansas and on a neutral court against Marquette. That win quality is probably enough to get them in, but they are only 3-2 against Quad 2, so overall they have a 7-9 record against Quads 1&2. They have a couple of toss-up type games coming up: at Vanderbilt to close the regular season, and then someone from the middle of the SEC pack in the first round of the SEC tournament. I think if they win one of those games, they’ll be OK.

Rutgers – Rutgers has been alternating bad losses (vs. Nebraska, at Minnesota) with good wins (at Wisconsin, at Penn State) lately. Life in the Big 10. They have five Quad 1 wins and a solid NET of 38, which certainly sounds like a tournament team. Their Achilles’ heel is four Quad 3 losses. It’s an unusual resume. It’s hard to find a good comp for them from the past. Their remaining schedule is similar to Mississippi State: they have a couple of toss-up games coming up, at home against Northwestern and then the first round of the Big 10 Tournament against somebody like Michigan or Michigan State. But I think their position is a bit more precarious than Mississippi State. They really need to win one of those games, and both to be completely safe.

NC State – The Wolfpack seem to be safely in according to most of the Bracketology talking heads, but I’m not sure why. They have only two Quad 1 wins. That is the ONLY thing separating their resume from North Carolina’s. If the Tar Heels beat Duke on Saturday, then they are dead even. Anyway, back to NC State. Their first round ACC Tournament game will be against Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, or Syracuse. They need to win it. If they do, I think they’re OK. Getting to the semifinals would make them totally safe.

Bubble Teams (10):

There are three spots available for this group. That number goes down with any bid stealers. However, it could also go up if any of the In for Nows stumble badly.

Pitt – let’s start with the Panthers. They are the case study for whether the committee will give the ACC a boost. They have four Quad 1 wins, but none of those is a so-called Quad 1A win. Their Quad 2 record is only 3-4, and the have two bad losses. Their NET is mediocre. The only reason I can come up with that the talking heads have them in is, they can’t believe the committee will leave out a team that is 14-5 in the ACC. And maybe they’re right. The winning record against Quad 1 is a major point in their favor. They play at Miami this weekend. A win there would clinch it. If they lose that game, they really need to win the ACC quarterfinal, and they need that to be a Quad 1 win, which means Duke, NC State, or North Carolina. Beating Clemson doesn’t help them as much. Bottom line is, if they don’t get another Quad 1 win, I think they will be left out.

North Carolina – I think the Tar Heels are in a similar boat to Pitt. They need another Quad 1 win. It could be against Duke on Saturday, or it could be in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. I think their position is slightly weaker than Pitt’s; I’m not convinced that one Quad 1 win is enough, and it may depend on bid stealers and what the other bubble teams do. They need two more Quad 1 wins to be safe.

Penn State – the Lions got a huge win on Wednesday at Northwestern, their fourth Quad 1. That is solid, but like Pitt, the rest of their resume is underwhelming. In fact, their resume is very much like Pitt’s. They need to beat Maryland at home on Sunday and win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament. That’s the minimum. They may need to get to the semis of the tournament.

Oklahoma State – a slightly worse version of West Virginia. Five Quad 1 wins, but an awful lot of losses, including their last five, and nothing like West Virginia’s impressive non-conference performance. Being in the Big 12, they’ll have plenty of opportunities to impress the committee. Between their last regular season game at Texas Tech and the Big 12 Tournament, they need two wins to be safe. No team with seven Quad 1 wins has ever been left out. If they were to beat Texas Tech and lose in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, that would be interesting; they would have six Quad 1 wins, which historically is close to a guarantee, but their overall record would be 17-15. With the late season slide, I don’t think it would be good enough.

Wisconsin – the Badgers are difficult to get a read on. They have six Quad 1 wins. Only three teams with six Q1s have been left out since 2016. However, for some reason the NET thinks they are terrible at number 77. The lowest ranked NET team ever to get an at-large was Rutgers last year, and they were, guess what, 77. It’s hard to know what to do with all of that. One thing is for sure: they can’t lose to Minnesota on Sunday. My sense is, if they beat Minnesota and score a Quad 1 win in the Big 10 Tournament, they’ll make it; otherwise, they probably won’t.

Arizona State – similar to Wisconsin. Poor NET, poor record against Quad 2, relying on their Quad 1 record, which includes four wins overall including a neutral court win over Creighton and a really impressive win at Arizona. Some bracketologists have them in right now. I don’t. Winning at USC on Saturday would help a lot, plus a quarterfinal win in the tournament. Otherwise they need a run to the Pac-12 final.

Michigan – now we’re getting to the deep cuts. Michigan is almost certainly not in right now. What do they have to do to win their way in? Winning at Indiana on Sunday would be a great start, and might just be enough depending on what else happens. Most likely, though, they need two more Quad 1 wins. Either Indiana and the tournament quarterfinal, or getting to the Big 10 Tournament final.

Oregon – the *really* deep cuts. Oregon, just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final. Even then, I doubt it, but say they beat Arizona State in the quarters and UCLA in the semis? I guess that could be enough if things break their way.

Clemson – Clemson’s four bad losses really kill them. Let’s say they beat Duke or NC State in the quarters and Virginia or Miami in the semis? Similar to Oregon, that might be enough. Anything short of that will not be unless the committee has a real soft spot for the ACC.

Texas Tech – why do I have them on here? Because they play in the Big 12. Practically every game is a Quad 1. If they beat Oklahoma State to close the regular season, then beat, say, West Virginia, Kansas, and Texas to reach the Big 12 tournament final? Yeah, they would make it. I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance it will happen, but I can’t rule it out.