thesnac

48. 1991 North Carolina

Record: 29-6, 10-4 (2nd place)
ACC Tournament: Won
NCAA Tournament: Lost in Final Four
Final AP Ranking: 4
All-ACC Players: Rick Fox (1st), Pete Chilcutt (3rd)
All-Americans: None

This is a fascinating team. The first thing that strikes you about the roster is the lack of a superstar. Rick Fox was the best player, and he was very good, but there’s no Worthy, no Jordan, no Jamison here. Then there’s just the sheer number of players. They returned five key guys from the year before (Fox, Pete Chilcutt, King Rice, Hubert Davis, George Lynch). They had a monster recruiting class – Eric Montross, Derrick Phelps, Brian Reese, Clifford Rozier, Kevin Salvadori, and Pat Sullivan – many of whom were ready to play as freshmen. Throw in some decent sophomores (Henrik Rodl, Kenny Harris, Matt Wenstrom), and you had 14 guys who were legitimately competing for playing time.

And Dean kept trying stuff, all year long. Nobody started every game, and 13 different players started at least one game. (Challenge: find another college basketball team, anywhere, ever, where 13 different guys started a game during the season.) Scott Cherry, Kenny Harris, and Pat Sullivan each started a game. Nobody started every game. Ultimately there were 10 guys who averaged 9 minutes a game or more: Fox, Chilcutt, Rice, Davis, Lynch, Montross, Phelps, Reese, Rozier, and Rodl. Dean was still playing around with the lineup in the tournament. Montross started the first round game but was supplanted by Lynch in the remaining games. The one guy who didn’t work out was Rozier. The highly touted recruit fell out of the tournament rotation and transferred to Louisville after the season.

They had a lot of skilled players. Fox was versatile and skilled and an underrated defender, Davis was a great shooter, Lynch was the leading rebounder and interior defensive anchor, Chilcutt was sneaky good, Rodl was a deft passer, Phelps was a great perimeter defender. Dean figured out how to put them all in positions to be successful.

A few other observations about this team. One, this was the year that State and Carolina played on back-to-back nights in early February. Their first scheduled game in January had been postponed and preempted by President Bush’s address to the nation announcing the opening of the Gulf War. State won the first game 97-91 behind 37 from Rodney Monroe and 28 from Tom Gugliotta. Carolina won the rematch 92-70.

Another observation is that this was Carolina’s first Final Four since 1982. Since then, they’d had a run of great teams that ultimately didn’t get it done in the NCAAs. What changed? Mostly their luck. After several years where they kept running into other great teams in the bracket, in 1991 everything fell their way. The #2, #4, #5, and #7 seeds in Carolina’s region lost in the first round, and there were other upsets later. As a result, the Tar Heels didn’t have to beat higher than a #9 seed to make the Final Four.

The Final Four was full of compelling storylines. UNC and Kansas, two blueblood programs, the Jayhawks just three years removed from a national championship run under Larry Brown, Roy Williams facing Coach Smith and Carolina for the first time, Smith back in the Final Four after coming up short so many times. The other semifinal was the Duke-UNLV rematch with all that entailed. Then, in the unlikely event that Duke beat UNLV, there was the possibility of a Duke-Carolina final. In the end, Kansas and Duke flipped the script. The Tar Heels couldn’t overcome a dismal shooting performance, and their season was over.

I’m not sure how a team whose best players were Rick Fox and Pete Chilcutt managed to be one of the 50 best teams in ACC history, but I think about it this way. Duke won the national championship, and I don’t see that Duke is very far ahead of this team. Duke did sweep them in the regular season, but the Tar Heels crushed them in the ACC Tournament final and wound up ranked higher in the polls. Duke obviously gets lots of credit for winning it all and beating UNLV, but an ACC title, a #1 seed, a #4 national ranking, and a Final Four run are too much to leave out.

49. 1975 Maryland

Record: 24-5, 10-2 (1st place)
ACC Tournament: Lost in semifinal
NCAA Tournament: Lost in regional final
Final AP Ranking: 5
All-ACC Players: John Lucas (1st), Mo Howard (2nd), Owen Brown (2nd), Brad Davis (2nd)
All-Americans: John Lucas (1st)

The ACC of the mid- to late 1970s. Talk about a meat grinder. From 1974 through 1979, I defy you to find a bad team. There were teams that lost games, mind you; that’s going to happen, because even if everybody is good, somebody has to lose. But there is not a truly bad basketball team anywhere in that six-year span.

Nobody got caught in the gears of the meat grinder more than Lefty Driesell and Maryland. It was a unique confluence of circumstances that conspired to keep them always near the top of the mountain but just below the summit. Their very best years – 1973-1975 – happened to coincide with the years that the greatest player in ACC history was king of the court over in Raleigh. But I’ll save a more complete account of that for later. Let’s look at Maryland’s 1975 team.

Maryland was coming off a year in 1974 where their excellence was exceeded only by their frustration. Try as the might, they could not get over the hump with the Wolfpack, despite being obviously one of the five best teams in the country. To add insult to injury, the ACC received only one bid to the NCAA tournament. So when Thompson, Burleson and Co. once again dashed the Terrapins’ dreams in the ACC Tournament final – the “greatest game ever played” – their season was over. Just like that.

Coming into 1975, it may have seemed that Lefty’s Terps had shot their bolt. Their dynamic frontcourt duo of Len Elmore and Tom McMillen had moved on to the NBA. But they still had John Lucas, and they still had Lefty. It may have been one of his best coaching jobs. Lucas was an All-American. All the returning players – Owen Brown, Mo Howard, Brad Davis, Steve Sheppard, and Tom Roy – got better. And Brad Davis was one of the nation’s best freshmen. I am not certain of this, but I believe that 1975 Maryland and 1989 UNC are the only teams in ACC history for which six players averaged double figures. For the season, they converted on 54.7% of their field goal attempts, behind only 1986 North Carolina (55.9%) and 1980 Maryland (55.1%) in ACC history. It was a beautiful team to watch.

The only blemishes were an early loss to UCLA and consecutive January losses at Clemson and at North Carolina. Both of those losses were avenged in the rematches at Cole Field House. And, most importantly, Maryland finally vanquished DT and the Wolfpack, winning easily at home and surviving a one-point 98-97 game on the road. The Terps finished the season 10-2 in the league and with a two-game lead over North Carolina, Clemson, and NC State, who all finished 8-4.

With only seven teams in the league at the time, the Terps as the top seed got a bye to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament – where NC State was waiting. This time, the Wolfpack jumped out to the early lead. They pushed the lead to 17 in the second half before Thompson had to leave the game with severe cramping. With Superman out, the Terps launched a furious comeback. They used a 16-0 run to take the lead on two Howard free throws with nine seconds left. But Mo Rivers found freshman Kenny Carr for the game-winning bucket with just one second left.

The disappointment must have been unbearable. But Maryland, in a sense, got the last laugh. In part as a result of the injustice of Maryland’s 1974 team being left out, the NCAA had finally relaxed the rules to allow at-large teams into the Tournament. North Carolina received the ACC’s automatic bid after beating NC State in the ACC Tournament final. Maryland was selected as an at-large team. They survived tight games against Creighton and Notre Dame to reach the regional final where they faced #3 Louisville.

It would have been an amazing redemption story for Maryland to reach the Final Four, but Louisville did not cooperate. The Cardinals ran away with a 96-82 victory.

It wasn’t the last good team Lefty had at Maryland, but it was probably the last great one. He never got another chance to play for a Final Four berth. But despite the sense of missed opportunity, there’s nothing to criticize here. They were a great team and deserve to be recognized as such.

50(tie). 1995 North Carolina / 1995 Wake Forest

1995 North Carolina
Record: 28-6, 12-4 (1st place tie)
ACC Tournament: Runner-up
NCAA Tournament: Lost in national semifinal
Final AP Ranking: 4
All-ACC Players: Jerry Stackhouse (1st), Rasheed Wallace (1st), Jeff McInnis (3rd)
All-Americans: Jerry Stackhouse (1st), Rasheed Wallace (2nd)

1995 Wake Forest
Record: 26-6, 12-4 (1st place tie)
ACC Tournament: Champion
NCAA Tournament: Lost in Sweet 16
Final AP Ranking: 3
All-ACC Players: Randolph Childress (1st), Tim Duncan (1st)
All-Americans: Randolph Childress (2nd)

There is a strong argument that 1995 was the best season in the history of the ACC. I’m not going to try to prove that here, but let me at least offer some evidence.

Great teams? Carolina, Wake Forest, Maryland, and Virginia all finished 12-4 in the league, and all four advanced to the Sweet 16, meaning the ACC went 8-0 in the first two rounds. Of the nine teams in the ACC, seven were ranked in the Top 20 at some point during the season. Virginia had a stretch of six straight ACC games in January in which each opponent was ranked in the Top 25. Georgia Tech, a team with Travis Best, James Forrest, Drew Barry, and Matt Harpring, could manage no better than 8-8 in the league.

Great players? First team All-ACC was Joe Smith, Duncan, Stackhouse, Wallace, and Childress. All except Duncan were named first or second-team consensus All-American (Duncan was third team AP). A great player like Travis Best of Georgia Tech couldn’t even crack first team All-ACC.

Great games and memorable moments? How about the Randolph Childress ACC Tournament performance? How about the Duke-Carolina double overtime 102-100 Jeff Capel halfcourt shot Jerry Stackhouse dunk game? How about the Maryland-Carolina ACC Tournament semifinal in which Rasheed Wallace scored 33 to lead the Tar Heels to a 97-92 overtime win?

Compelling storylines? How about the Coach K back injury/Pete Gaudet/Duke finishing in last place storyline? How about the three of the four super sophomores (Wallace, Stackhouse, and Smith) turning pro after the season in what was the first mass exodus of underclass talent in league history?

In ranking the teams, I was tempted to make this a four-way tie and throw in Maryland and Virginia, but if you look closely, I do think Carolina and Wake are one notch higher in the pecking order. But it was impossible to pick between those two. They had essentially the same record and the same ranking; both had two great players; one won the ACC title, while the other advanced to the Final Four.

A few notable things about that Carolina team. First, they were one of the best offensive teams Dean Smith ever had, and that’s saying something. This team shot 55% from two-point range (third in the nation) and 41% from three-point range (fifth in the nation). All five starters averaged in double figures. Second, this team had no bench. Pearce Landry got about 15 minutes per game, Serge Zwikker and Pat Sullivan about 10 each, and that’s it. 83.2% of the scoring came from the starters. Without doing the research, I would conjecture that’s a record for a Dean Smith team.

Wake Forest flew under the radar for much of the season. They weren’t highly regarded before the season because nobody knew how good Duncan was. After an early February loss to Florida State, they stood at 5-4 in the ACC. But they caught fire down the stretch, winning their last seven ACC games including a resounding 79-70 win in the Dean Dome. Adding in the ACC Tournament and the first two games in the NCAAs, they won twelve straight before falling in the Sweet 16 to an outstanding, and probably underseeded, Oklahoma State team led by “Big Country” Bryant Reeves.

ACC Greatest Teams – an Introduction

I’m about 18 months removed from the completion of my ACC 100 Greatest Players series. As I was working on that series, I became interested in the question: what are the greatest teams in ACC history?

This topic doesn’t need much of an introduction, but I do want to say a few things. First, I decided on 50 teams. There’s no magic to that. There have been about 700 teams in league history. 50 teams means we are looking at the top 7% or so. 50 means we have room for all the national championship teams, most of the Final Four teams, most of the 30+ win teams, and a good number of the ACC Tournament champions. The idea is to draw the line such that any team that one might conceive as truly great is included, but a team that was merely good but didn’t do anything genuinely memorable is not. If I erred, it was probably on the side of having too many teams rather than too few.

Secondly, I decided to look at each team-year individually. Sometimes you have great teams – let’s say NC State 1972-73 and 1973-74 – where they have a two- or even a three-year period of excellence that is built around a common core of players. One way to do it would be to consider those groups as one team. Is it possible to draw meaningful distinctions between NC State 1973 and 1974?

Well, as a matter of fact it is, and ultimately I was led to the conclusion that the only fair way to do it is to consider each team-year individually. No team is exactly the same from one year to the next. For example, you know the 1973 and 1974 NC State teams were built around David Thompson, Monte Towe, and Tom Burleson; but the fourth- and fifth-leading scorers on the 1973 team were seniors Rick Holdt and Joe Cafferky. In 1974, Holdt and Cafferky were graduated and replaced by newcomers Phil Spence and Mo Rivers. Not the same team.

You find similar situations with other teams. 1967-1969 North Carolina kind of looks like one team, but when you look at the stars, the ’67 team had Bob Lewis and Larry Miller, the ’68 team had Larry Miller and Charlie Scott, and in ’69 Miller was gone. Not the same team. 1981 Virginia had Jeff Lamp and Lee Raker; 1982 Virginia had Jim Miller and Tim Mullen; 1983 Virginia added Rick Carlisle and subtracted Jeff Jones. Even Duke from 1991 to 1992 – about as close to coming back with the exact same team as I could find – swapped out Greg Koubek for Cherokee Parks.

Unfortunately for me, that approach requires that I draw some very fine distinctions among those team-years. The 1967-1969 North Carolina teams had virtually identical results. How do you distinguish among those teams? I’ve done the best I could.

Finally, a word about how I approached comparing teams from different eras. In short, each team was considered in the context of its own era. In other words, I didn’t try to figure out whether 1957 North Carolina would beat 2015 Duke if they could meet in some basketball fantasy world. My answer is a) no, they wouldn’t and b) who cares? It’s completely irrelevant to how we evaluate 1957 North Carolina. Every team is situated in a particular time and context, and their objective is to beat the teams they are actually playing, not some hypothetical team from 60 years later.

With that, let’s get on to the list.

ACC Football Update 11/20

As we approach the last weekend of the college football regular season, things are becoming clearer. Louisville’s win over Miami clinched the Cardinals’ spot alongside Florida State in the ACC Championship game. Georgia Tech became the ninth ACC team to become bowl-eligible, joining Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Boston College, and Miami. NC State and Clemson won to solidify their positions in the upper tier of ACC bowl teams as Duke, BC, and Miami all lost. Syracuse and Virginia Tech failed to get that sixth win but each can still qualify for a bowl game with a win this weekend.

College Football Playoff outlook

Not much changed this past weekend. All of the zero and one-loss teams won. The most significant event was probably the injury to Jordan Travis. I don’t think this will impact how the selection committee views the Seminoles – at least it shouldn’t – but it does potentially affect their prospects for winning their last two games, which is a must if they want to make the CFP.

I am reasonably confident in saying that any undefeated team is going to make it. Right now, there are five: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, FSU, and Washington. Ohio State and Michigan play on Saturday, so there will be at most four. Some are arguing that a one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, or Michigan would be more deserving than an undefeated FSU or Washington. While that argument is not without merit, ultimately I don’t see the committee leaving out an undefeated conference champion FSU or Washington.

Here is a team-by-team rundown:

Georgia (11-0). The Bulldogs are in with a win over Alabama. They can still make it with a loss if any of the other undefeated teams loses. A fascinating chaos scenario would be if Alabama loses to Auburn but beats Georgia. In this scenario, it’s possible that the SEC would have no one in the playoff although I suspect Georgia would make it.
Ohio State (11-0). Should be safe with a win over Michigan. Could still get in with one loss if FSU or Washington loses.
Michigan (11-0). Should be safe with a win over Ohio State. Could still get in with one loss if FSU or Washington loses.
FSU (11-0). Should be safe with wins over Florida and Louisville. Highly unlikely to get in with a loss.
Washington (11-0). Should be safe with wins over Washington State and in the Pac-12 championship. Highly unlikely to get in with a loss.
Oregon (10-1). It gets interesting here. Obviously they have to beat Oregon State and win the Pac-12 championship. If that happens, does one-loss Oregon get in over the loser of Ohio State-Michigan? I say yes. Also, Alabama beating Georgia is bad for them.
Texas (10-1). Similar situation to Oregon, but I am less certain that the Longhorns would get in over one loss Ohio State/Michigan. If Washington and Oregon both win this weekend, their path gets harder to see.
Alabama (10-1). If they beat Auburn and Georgia, I predict they’re going to jump over the other one-loss teams and be in the playoff.
Louisville (10-1). First, they have to win out. Then they need losses by Washington, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama.

Maximum Chaos Scenario

For the anarchists out there, maximum chaos would be:

Oregon wins the Pac-12
Texas wins the Big 12
Alabama wins the SEC
Louisville wins the ACC
Iowa beats Ohio St/Michigan winner in the Big Ten championship

In this scenario, all nine teams above would have one loss. None of those individual outcomes is farfetched except for Iowa beating Ohio St/Michigan.

ACC Bowl Game Outlook

What’s interesting here is that the teams have sorted themselves into tiers that align well with the ACC bowl game tiers.

Tier	Teams	Bowls
0	Florida State, Louisville	CFP, Orange
1	NC State, UNC, Clemson, Notre Dame	ReliaQuest (formerly Outback), Gator, Holiday, Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It)
2	Duke, BC, Miami, Georgia Tech, and possibly Virginia Tech and/or Syracuse	Pinstripe, Fenway, Military, Duke’s Mayo, Sun

First I will outline the best guesses for where each team goes within each tier. Then I will describe two scenarios that could result in a team getting bumped down a tier.

Within Tier 1, the ReliaQuest will get the first pick, and it seems likely that they will pick Notre Dame. Clemson seems like a good fit for the Holiday Bowl for several reasons: 1) Carolina went to the Holiday last year; 2) NC State still has a bad taste in its mouth from the 2021 debacle with the cancelled game against UCLA; and 3) a Clemson – Oregon State matchup would have an interesting storyline with DJ Uiagalelei facing his former team. NC State has been to the Gator Bowl fairly recently, so most likely Carolina would go there, which would leave the Pop Tarts Bowl in Orlando for NC State.

Within Tier 2, BC seems like an obvious choice for the Fenway Bowl. The other spots may depend on whether Virginia Tech and Syracuse qualify. Here are my best guesses:

Neither VT nor Syracuse qualifies: Duke goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Ga Tech goes to Military
VT qualifies but Syracuse does not: VT goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Ga Tech goes to Military, Duke goes to Pinstripe
Syracuse qualifies but VT does not: Duke goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Syracuse goes to Military, Ga Tech goes to Pinstripe
Both VT and Syracuse qualify: VT goes to Duke’s Mayo, Miami goes to Sun, Ga Tech goes to Military, Duke goes to Pinstripe, Syracuse goes to some other bowl (Birmingham, or First Responder, or something)

I could be wrong about Virginia Tech grabbing the Duke’s Mayo slot from Duke. It’s a hunch.

Now for the complications. There are two. First, if the ACC champion doesn’t make the CFP, then they wind up in the Orange Bowl. Which means the runner up, unless they are selected as an at-large team for a New Year’s Six Bowl, gets bumped down to Tier 1. The cascading effect of that is that one of the Tier 1 teams would get bumped to Tier 2. Who would it be? I think it depends on the result of this week’s games. If Clemson loses, I think it would be them; if Clemson wins, I think it would be the loser of the State-Carolina game.

The other complication has to do with the ReliaQuest Bowl. It’s complicated, but the ACC gets a spot in the ReliaQuest only if the Big Ten gets a spot in the Orange Bowl opposite the ACC. That Orange Bowl slot can go to an SEC team or a Big Ten team. If the Orange Bowl picks an SEC team, then the Big Ten gets the ReliaQuest slot as a consolation prize. If the Orange Bowl picks a Big Ten team, then the ACC (or Notre Dame) gets the ReliaQuest slot.

Most of the experts are predicting that the Ohio State – Michigan loser will get the Orange Bowl slot, and therefore the ACC will get the ReliaQuest slot. I can think of two things that would mess that up. One, if Alabama beats Georgia, and Georgia doesn’t get into the playoff, then Georgia would probably go to the Orange Bowl. Two, if the Ohio State – Michigan loser gets into the playoff, then they obviously wouldn’t be available for the Orange. In that scenario, the Orange Bowl would likely take Alabama although Penn State and Ole Miss are possibilities as well.

Neither of these complications could happen, or one of them could happen, or both of them could happen. If both happen, then only one of NC State, Carolina, and Clemson would get a Tier 1 bowl slot. My guess is that it would be NC State if they win, Clemson if NC State loses and they win, and Carolina if they win and Clemson loses.

ACC Football Update 11/15

Bowl Eligibility

In: Florida State, Louisville, Carolina, State, Miami, BC, Duke, Clemson

One more win: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse

Two more wins: Wake Forest

Out: Pitt, Virginia

ACC Championship Outlook

The first slot is easy – Florida State is in.

The second slot is easy in one sense and hard in another. It’s easy in the sense that it’s highly probable that it will be Louisville – even if they lose to Miami. I’m going to talk at length about the scenarios where it isn’t, but keep in mind that it’s probably going to be Louisville and everything I’m about to say will come to nothing.

Obviously if Louisville beats Miami, they’re in. If they lose, it introduces the possibility of a second place tie with one or more of the two-loss teams: Virginia Tech, NC State, and Carolina. There are four possible tie scenarios:

Louisville – NC State
Louisville – Virginia Tech
Louisville – North Carolina
Louisville – Virginia Tech – North Carolina

Scenarios 1 and 2 are easy. Louisville beat both NC State and Virginia Tech, so they win those scenarios based on head-to-head. NC State has no chance to be in the championship game.

Scenario 3 is trickier, because Louisville and Carolina didn’t play each other. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. Unfortunately, that one doesn’t help either; both teams would be 4-2 against their common opponents (Georgia Tech, NC State, Pitt, Duke, Miami, Virginia). After that, they start looking at common opponents individually, starting at the top of the conference standings and descending until they find a common opponent that one team beat and the other didn’t. In this case, when they do that, the first team they will get to is Georgia Tech, whom Louisville beat and Carolina didn’t. So Louisville wins a two-way tie with Carolina.

Then there is Scenario 4. For three-way ties, here are the tiebreakers in order:

Tiebreaker	How It Will Apply
Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.	Not applicable, Carolina didn’t play VT or Louisville
If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams.	Not applicable, none of the teams beat the other two
Win percentage versus all common opponents.	Common opponents to all three teams are Pitt, NC State, and Virginia. In this scenario, UNC and VT would be 3-0 while Louisville would be 2-1. I assume this means Louisville is out.
Win percentage versus common opponents based on their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.	Doesn’t help. UNC and VT both beat all their common opponents.
Combined win percentage of conference opponents.	As of this moment: VT 25-27 Louisville 22-27 UNC 19-31 VT or Louisville could still win this, or could finish tied. Carolina will finish below VT and Louisville, no matter what.

So based on my reading of the tiebreakers, Virginia Tech wins the three-way tie. Which seems odd, considering Louisville beat Virginia Tech head-to-head, but interestingly, that seems to play no role in the three-team tiebreaker. I see no scenario where Carolina makes the ACC championship game, despite what I have been reading on the Internet in various places.

CFP Outlook

CFP Favorites

The winner of Ohio St – Michigan will be in. Full stop.
The SEC champion will be in, unless Alabama loses to Auburn and then beats Georgia. That would be a bit of a chaos scenario.
Florida State and Washington will probably be in if they finish undefeated.

Wildcards and Chaos Scenarios

If Georgia loses to Alabama, do they make it over FSU or Washington?
Same question for the loser of Ohio State-Michigan?
As mentioned above – if Alabama loses to Auburn but beats Georgia, who makes it from the SEC? My guess is, Georgia would make it.

Who is best positioned to benefit if FSU and/or Washington stumble?

One loss Georgia, although they might make it anyway
Loser of Ohio State – Michigan, although they might make it anyway
Oregon, if they win out
Texas, if they win out

Does anyone outside the current Top 8 in the CFP rankings (Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, FSU, Washington, Oregon, Texas, Alabama) have a chance to make it? What would have to happen?

The only two I can see are Oregon State and Louisville. Oregon State still plays Washington and Oregon, and if they win both of those, they might play Washington again in the Pac-12 championship. If they sweep those three games, that would be a helluva finish. They would still need some help; probably a Texas loss, an Alabama loss, and a Florida State loss. I think that would be enough.

Louisville… well, if they win out, if Texas and Alabama lose, and if Oregon, Washington, and Oregon State all beat up on each other, then maybe they could be the fourth team after Georgia, Ohio State, and Michigan.

ACC Team By Team

Florida State (10-0, 8-0)

Games Remaining: North Alabama, at Florida

Possible Records: 12-0 (63% chance), 11-1 (37%), 10-2 (effectively 0%)

Bowl Possibilities: They’ll be in the playoff if they go undefeated. If they lose to Florida but beat Louisville, they’ll wind up in the Orange Bowl. If they don’t win the ACC championship, they probably still go to a New Year’s Six bowl as an at large.

Louisville (9-1, 6-1)

Games Remaining: at Miami, Kentucky

Possible Records: 11-1 (37% chance), 10-2 (48%), 9-3 (15%)

Bowl Possibilities: They’re probably headed for the Orange Bowl. A very outside possibility of making the playoff. On the other extreme, if they lose two more games, North Carolina could jump over them for the Orange Bowl slot.

North Carolina (8-2, 4-2)

Games Remaining: at Clemson, at NC State

Possible Records: 10-2 (20%), 9-3 (51%), 8-4 (29%)

Bowl Possibilities: They should get a Tier 1 (Gator, Pop Tarts, or Holiday) if they can get to 9 wins with an outside shot at the ReliaQuest. If they win out and if Louisville loses a game or two, they could make the Orange Bowl. I see a very slim chance, but not zero, that they could make one of the other New Year’s Six bowls as an at large team if they win out, even if they don’t make the Orange Bowl.

NC State (7-3, 4-2)

Games Remaining: at Virginia Tech, UNC

Possible Records: 9-3 (25%), 8-4 (50%), 7-5 (25%)

Bowl Possibilities: I think there is an opening for them to get into the Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It) or the Holiday if they can get to 8 wins. ReliaQuest is an outside possibility if they can get to 9. Watch out for Clemson though – if they win their last two, one of the Tier 1 bowls will grab them and bump someone, possibly NC State, to Tier 2.

Virginia Tech (5-5, 4-2)

Games Remaining: NC State, at Virginia

Possible Records: 7-5 (25%), 6-6 (50%), 5-7 (25%)

Bowl Possibilities: If they get to six wins, they could be a good candidate for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte. If they get to seven, which means finishing 6-2 in the ACC, I’m not sure what happens. Could they sneak into the Gator Bowl?

Georgia Tech (5-5, 4-3)

Games Remaining: Syracuse, Georgia

Possible Records: 7-5 (5%), 6-6 (51%), 5-7 (44%)

Bowl Possibilities: They need to beat Syracuse to get to a Tier 2 bowl, probably Military or Pinstripe.

Duke (6-4, 3-3)

Games Remaining: at Virginia, Pitt

Possible Records: 8-4 (43%), 7-5 (45%), 6-6 (12%)

Bowl Possibilities: If they can get to 8 wins, I think they are the next team up for a Tier 1 bowl, probably Holiday, if Clemson stumbles.

Boston College (6-4, 3-3)

Games Remaining: at Pitt, Miami

Possible Records: 8-4 (12%), 7-5 (45%), 6-6 (43%)

Bowl Possibilities: Fenway Bowl would be the logical choice.

Clemson (6-4, 3-4)

Games Remaining: UNC, at South Carolina

Possible Records: 8-4 (40% chance), 7-5 (47%), 6-6 (13%)

Bowl Possibilities: After Notre Dame, they will be the prize. If they get to 8 wins, Tier 1 is a lock, and I could see them going Tier 1 even with 7. If they don’t go to Tier 1, the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte would love to have them.

Miami (6-4, 2-4)

Games Remaining: Louisville, at BC

Possible Records: 8-4 (27%), 7-5 (53%), 6-6 (20%)

Bowl Possibilities: Need to get to 8 wins to be in the Tier 1 conversation (Pop Tarts, Holiday, or Gator). 6 or 7 wins could be Sun Bowl.

Pitt (2-8, 1-5)

Games Remaining: BC, at Duke

Possible Records: 4-8 (22%), 3-9 (56%), 2-10 (22%)

Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.

Virginia (2-8, 1-5)

Games Remaining: Duke, Virginia Tech

Possible Records: 4-8 (17%), 3-9 (49%), 2-10 (34%)

Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.

Syracuse (5-5, 1-5)

Games Remaining: at Georgia Tech, Wake

Possible Records: 7-5 (26%), 6-6 (50%), 5-7 (24%)

Bowl Possibilities: If Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse all qualify, there will be one too many teams for the Tier 2 bowls, which means someone will drop to Tier 3 (Gasparilla/Birmingham/First Responder). My money is on the Orange.

Wake Forest (4-6, 1-6)

Games Remaining: at Notre Dame, at Syracuse

Possible Records: 6-6 (5%), 5-7 (47%), 4-8 (48%)

Bowl Possibilities: Doesn’t look good.

Notre Dame (7-3)

Games Remaining: Wake, at Stanford

Possible Records: 9-3 (75%), 8-4 (23%), 7-5 (2%)

Bowl Possibilities: With two relatively easy games remaining, they’re a virtual lock to go to a Tier 1 or ReliaQuest Bowl. If they finish 9-3, they’ll be the first pick of that group.

ACC Football Update 11/9

Standings Overview

Last week was a busy week in the ACC:

Florida State clinched a spot in the ACC championship game and took another step towards a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Louisville put some distance between themselves and the pack, and they are now the big favorite to face FSU in the ACC championship.
Notre Dame fell out of serious consideration for a New Year’s Six bowl.
NC State, Duke, and Boston College became bowl-eligible.
Clemson and Georgia Tech got big wins and are only one win away from bowl eligibility.
Pitt and Virginia’s chances for bowl eligibility evaporated, confirming their slide into 2023 irrelevance.

Let’s start with the ACC championship. I haven’t seen this confirmed anywhere, but it appears to me that Louisville clinches a spot with a win over Virginia. It would still be possible for them to finish in a tie at 6-2 with one of the current 2-loss teams, but the Cardinals have beaten all of those teams except North Carolina, and it appears to me that they would win a tie with the Tar Heels as well. So I think Louisville has all the tiebreakers.

If Louisville loses to Virginia, then the 2-loss teams (Georgia Tech, Duke, UNC, NC State, BC, Virginia Tech) would still be in the hunt with a win.

We know for sure that teams with 4+ ACC losses are already eliminated from contention for the championship. That includes Clemson, Pitt, Virginia, Wake Forest, and Syracuse.

That leaves Miami as the only 3-loss team. I don’t think they are mathematically eliminated yet, but they will be with a loss or a Louisville win.

In terms of bowl eligibility, FSU, Louisville, UNC, Miami, Boston College, Duke, and NC State are there. Clemson and Georgia Tech need one more win. Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest need two more wins. Pitt and Virginia are eliminated.

Clemson and Georgia Tech play each other this weekend, so the winner will qualify. Georgia Tech still has Syracuse at home, so even if they lose to Clemson they still have a good chance. They had better win one of the next two because they close with Georgia. Virginia Tech is probably 50-50 to get there. Wake and Syracuse still have to play each other, so the winner of that game might make it and the loser probably won’t. I’m holding to my prediction that 10 teams will ultimately become eligible.

ACC Bowl Prospects

In last week’s post, I explained how the ACC’s bowl tie-ins work. I won’t repeat that here. The only update I have is that with their loss to Clemson, Notre Dame is now unlikely to make a New Year’s Six bowl. This means they will steal a slot from an ACC team, and that slot will be one of the Tier 1 bowls or the ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl. Right now I am betting they go to the ReliaQuest.

That ReliaQuest slot could also go to the Big Ten. In that case, Notre Dame will get one of the Tier 1 bowls (probably Holiday or Pop Tarts) and that would leave only two Tier 1 slots for ACC teams. I’m not sure what would make that scenario more likely, but I have a feeling that Penn State beating Michigan might, so maybe pull for Michigan this weekend.

Team By Team

Florida State (9-0, 7-0)

Games Remaining: Miami, North Alabama, at Florida

Possible Records: 12-0 (53% chance), 11-1 (41%), 10-2 (6%), 9-3 (effectively 0%)

Bowl Possibilities: They’ll be in the playoff if they go undefeated with an outside shot to make it with one loss.

Louisville (8-1, 5-1)

Games Remaining: Virginia, at Miami, Kentucky

Possible Records: 11-1 (34% chance), 10-2 (46%), 9-3 (18%), 8-4 (2%)

Bowl Possibilities: Probably going to the Orange Bowl. Where they will probably get their tails kicked. They could make the playoff if they win out.

Georgia Tech (5-4, 4-2)

Games Remaining: at Clemson, Syracuse, Georgia

Possible Records: 8-4 (1%), 7-5 (14%), 6-6 (51%), 5-7 (34%)

Bowl Possibilities: They need “only” one more win, but two of the games are really tough. Most likely scenario is a win against Syracuse and a Tier 2 bowl, probably Military or Pinstripe.

North Carolina (7-2, 3-2)

Games Remaining: Duke, at Clemson, at NC State

Possible Records: 10-2 (12%), 9-3 (40%), 8-4 (37%), 7-5 (11%)

Bowl Possibilities: I’m still thinking Gator or Pop Tarts if they can get to 9 wins with an outside shot at the ReliaQuest. 8 wins might be enough for Tier 1, but that would probably depend on other teams like Duke, NC State, and Clemson.

Duke (6-3, 3-2)

Games Remaining: at UNC, at Virginia, Pitt

Possible Records: 9-3 (16%), 8-4 (44%), 7-5 (33%), 6-6 (7%)

Bowl Possibilities: If they can get to 8 wins, I like them for the Holiday Bowl. If not, Sun Bowl perhaps?

NC State (6-3, 3-2)

Games Remaining: at Wake, at Virginia Tech, UNC

Possible Records: 9-3 (11%), 8-4 (37%), 7-5 (39%), 6-6 (13%)

Bowl Possibilities: With the win over Miami, I think there is an opening for them to get into the Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It) if they can get to 8 or 9 wins. Watch out for Clemson though – if they finish strong, one of the Tier 1 bowls will grab them and bump someone, possibly NC State, to Tier 2.

Boston College (6-3, 3-2)

Games Remaining: Virginia Tech, at Pitt, Miami

Possible Records: 9-3 (7%), 8-4 (31%), 7-5 (43%), 6-6 (19%)

Bowl Possibilities: Fenway Bowl would be the logical choice. Probably need to win out to get into the Tier 1 conversation.

Virginia Tech (4-5, 3-2)

Games Remaining: at BC, NC State, at Virginia

Possible Records: 7-5 (12%), 6-6 (36%), 5-7 (39%), 4-8 (13%)

Bowl Possibilities: A lot of work to do. If they do get to six wins, they could be a good candidate for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte – if they can’t get Clemson.

Miami (6-3, 2-3)

Games Remaining: at FSU, Louisville, at BC

Possible Records: 9-3 (4%), 8-4 (27%), 7-5 (48%), 6-6 (21%)

Bowl Possibilities: Need to get to 8 wins to be in the Tier 1 conversation (Pop Tarts, Holiday, or Gator). 6 or 7 wins could be Sun Bowl.

Clemson (5-4, 2-4)

Games Remaining: Georgia Tech, UNC, at South Carolina

Possible Records: 8-4 (34% chance), 7-5 (45%), 6-6 (19%), 5-7 (2%)

Bowl Possibilities: After Notre Dame, they will be the prize. If they get to 8 wins, Tier 1 is a lock, and I could see them going Tier 1 even with 7. If they don’t go to Tier 1, I predict they’ll go to Charlotte and play in Duke’s Mayo.

Pitt (2-7, 1-4)

Games Remaining: at Syracuse, BC, at Duke

Possible Records: 5-7 (13%), 4-8 (41%), 3-9 (36%), 2-10 (10%)

Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.

Virginia (2-7, 1-4)

Games Remaining: at Louisville, Duke, Virginia Tech

Possible Records: 5-7 (2%), 4-8 (21%), 3-9 (47%), 2-10 (30%)

Bowl Possibilities: Not this year.

Wake Forest (4-5, 1-5)

Games Remaining: NC State, at Notre Dame, at Syracuse

Possible Records: 7-5 (4%), 6-6 (31%), 5-7 (46%), 4-8 (19%)

Bowl Possibilities: They need to beat NC State on Saturday or they probably aren’t going anywhere. If they do qualify, Military or Pinstripe seem like the most likely possibilities.

Syracuse (4-5, 0-5)

Games Remaining: Pitt, at Georgia Tech, Wake

Possible Records: 7-5 (9%), 6-6 (34%), 5-7 (41%), 4-8 (16%)

Bowl Possibilities: They look dead, but the schedule keeps them in it. They would seem to be a fit for the Pinstripe if they can get to six.

Notre Dame (7-3)

Games Remaining: bye week, Wake, at Stanford

Possible Records: 9-3 (75%), 8-4 (23%), 7-5 (2%)

Bowl Possibilities: They’re almost a lock to go to a Tier 1 or ReliaQuest Bowl. If they finish 9-3, they’ll be the first pick of that group.

ACC Football Update 11/2

Standings Overview

With four weeks left in the college football regular season, some things are starting to come into focus.

Florida State will make the College Football Playoff if they don’t lose a game, and they could make it even if they do.

Florida State is going to be in the ACC championship. They haven’t clinched yet, there are some tiebreaker scenarios where they don’t make it, but it’s a near certainty at this point.

If Louisville beats Virginia Tech this weekend, then the Cardinals have the clear inside track on the second spot. If the Hokies win, that throws things into a bit of chaos and gives all the two-loss teams hope.

After Louisville, there is tremendous parity. The gap between third place Virginia Tech and last place Syracuse is not large.

And almost no one has been eliminated from anything yet. There are too many games left. There are still scenarios where the four-loss teams – Clemson, Wake Forest, and Syracuse – could finish in a tie for second place. I don’t know if they could win the tiebreakers and make the ACC Championship, but it’s not completely off the table. The three- and two-loss teams are still in the hunt for a spot in the championship, but they probably need to win out.

In terms of bowl eligibility, FSU, Louisville, Carolina, and Miami are there. Boston College, Duke, and NC State are almost there. Clemson, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech have a lot of work to do. And Pitt and Virginia are almost done. I’d say the over/under on bowl eligible teams from the ACC right now is 10.

ACC Bowl Prospects

Let’s remind ourselves of the ACC’s bowl tie-ins and how the selections work. It’s quite complex, and there is some conflicting information on the Internet, but here is what I have pieced together.

The best way to think of it is in tiers:

ACC Champion (“Tier 0”): Orange Bowl

Tier 1: Holiday Bowl, Gator Bowl, Pop Tarts (formerly Cheez-It/Camping World/Russell Athletic/etc.) Bowl

Tier 2: Pinstripe Bowl, Duke’s Mayo Bowl, Fenway Bowl, Military Bowl, Sun Bowl

Tier 3: Gasparilla Bowl, Birmingham Bowl, First Responder Bowl

Think of the tiers as the draft order. The Tier 1 bowls get together and pick their three; then the Tier 2 bowls get together and pick their five from the teams that are left; then the Tier 3 bowls get the leftovers. Last year, the only bowl-eligible team left after Tier 2 was Wake Forest, so they went to the Gasparilla.

Within each tier, the decisions about who goes where are opaque and are presumably made by a cadre of conference and bowl officials, based on fan interest, attractiveness of matchup, and how recently a school has been to that particular bowl.

Now where it gets really complicated is, there are three “wild cards” that can affect the order I just laid out. Two of them take the form of an additional ACC bowl slot that has the effect of pulling everyone up one rung on the ladder. The third has the opposite effect: it essentially steals a bowl from an ACC team and pushes everyone down a rung. Let’s go over these potential wild cards.

Wild Card #1: College Football Playoff

If the ACC Champion finishes in the Top 4 of the CFP rankings, they go to the College Football Playoff. If this happens, the highest-ranked team after the champion goes to the Orange Bowl, and everyone else gets pulled up one rung. This is a strong possibility for Florida State.

Wild Card #2: The ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) Bowl

The ReliaQuest Bowl features an SEC team against either a Big Ten team or an ACC team. The choice depends on whether the Orange Bowl chooses an SEC team or a Big Ten team. If they choose the Big Ten, then the ACC gets the Big Ten’s slot in the ReliaQuest Bowl and everyone below gets pulled up one rung. This arrangement has been in place for a few years, but the ACC has never landed in this bowl. This year, it seems like there is a decent chance that a one-loss Big Ten team (Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State) will wind up in the Orange Bowl and the ACC will get the ReliaQuest slot.

Wild Card #3: Notre Dame

Notre Dame can be selected instead of an ACC team for the ACC’s Tier 1 and Tier 2 bowl slots (they are not eligible for the Orange Bowl). The upshot is that if Notre Dame does not make a New Year’s Six bowl, they probably steal a bowl slot from an ACC team and push everyone down one rung. This year, I think the Irish have a great chance to make the New Year’s Six as a two-loss team.

So if you’re a fan of one of the middle of the pack teams, and you’re hoping to get to a Tier 1 bowl, you should be rooting for:

Florida State to win out and make the CFP
Notre Dame to win out and make the New Year’s Six
The Big Ten to make the Orange Bowl instead of the SEC. It’s very complicated to know exactly what to pull for in order for that to come about.

If all of that were to happen, then Florida State would go to the CFP, the next highest team from the ACC (let’s say Louisville) would go to the Orange, the next best team from the ACC (let’s say Carolina) would go to the ReliaQuest, and the next three teams (let’s say Duke, Miami, and NC State) would go to the Gator, Holiday, and Pop Tarts.

On the other extreme, if none of those three things happens, then the ACC Champ (let’s say FSU) would go to the Orange, Notre Dame would steal one of the Tier 1 bowls, and there would be only two Tier 1 slots left for, say, Louisville and Carolina, and everyone else would be relegated to Tier 2/3.

Team By Team

Florida State (8-0, 4-0)

Games Remaining: at Pitt, Miami, North Alabama, at Florida

Possible Records: 12-0 (37%), 11-1 (45%), 10-2 (16%), 9-3 (2%), 8-4 (effectively 0%)

Bowl Possibilities: They’ll be in the playoff if they go undefeated. I think they have a decent chance to make the playoff with one loss.

Louisville (7-1, 4-1)

Games Remaining: Virginia Tech, Virginia, at Miami, Kentucky

Possible Records: 11-1 (23%), 10-2 (42%), 9-3 (27%), 8-4 (7%), 7-5 (1%)

Bowl Possibilities: They have a great shot at the Orange Bowl if Florida State winds up in the CFP. If they beat Virginia Tech on Saturday, that doesn’t quite clinch a spot in the ACC Championship game, but it gets them close.

Virginia Tech (4-4, 3-1)

Games Remaining: at Louisville, at BC, NC State, at Virginia

Possible Records: 8-4 (3%), 7-5 (19%), 6-6 (38%), 5-7 (31%), 4-8 (9%)

Bowl Possibilities: Of all the teams on this list, the widest range of possibilities. If they can beat Louisville on Saturday, suddenly they have the inside track to be in the ACC Championship game. On the other hand, they could easily wind up with a losing record. A 6- or 7-win Virginia Tech would be attractive for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in Charlotte.

North Carolina (6-2, 3-2)

Games Remaining: Campbell, Duke, at Clemson, at NC State

Possible Records: 10-2 (12%), 9-3 (38%), 8-4 (37%), 7-5 (12%), 6-6 (1%)

Bowl Possibilities: I’m guessing Gator or Pop Tarts if they can get to 9 wins. 8 might be enough.

Georgia Tech (4-4, 3-2)

Games Remaining: at Virginia, at Clemson, Syracuse, Georgia

Possible Records: 8-4 (<1%), 7-5 (5%), 6-6 (27%), 5-7 (45%), 4-8 (23%)

Bowl Possibilities: I have them as only a 33% chance to become bowl eligible. If they do make it, they might be a candidate for the Military, or maybe Tier 3.

Duke (5-3, 2-2)

Games Remaining: Wake, at UNC, at Virginia, Pitt

Possible Records: 9-3 (10%), 8-4 (33%), 7-5 (37%), 6-6 (17%), 5-7 (3%)

Bowl Possibilities: A wide range of possibilities. If they can get to 8 wins, I like them in the Holiday Bowl. If not, Sun Bowl perhaps?

Miami (6-2, 2-2)

Games Remaining: at NC State, at FSU, Louisville, at BC

Possible Records: 10-2 (3%), 9-3 (18%), 8-4 (38%), 7-5 (32%), 6-6 (9%)

Bowl Possibilities: A very challenging schedule the rest of the way. Probably not going to win in Tallahassee and the other games are close to toss-ups. 9-3 or even 8-4 Miami would be attractive for one of the Tier 1 bowls (Pop Tarts, Holiday, or Gator). 6 or 7 wins could be Sun Bowl.

NC State (5-3, 2-2)

Games Remaining: Miami, at Wake, at Virginia Tech, UNC

Possible Records: 9-3 (5%), 8-4 (23%), 7-5 (38%), 6-6 (27%), 5-7 (7%)

Bowl Possibilities: Four games left that are close to toss-ups. They could go just about anywhere. If I had to bet right now, I’d bet Military or Pinstripe. Need to get to 8 wins to think about a Tier 1.

Boston College (5-3, 2-2)

Games Remaining: at Syracuse, Virginia Tech, at Pitt, Miami

Possible Records: 9-3 (2%), 8-4 (14%), 7-5 (34%), 6-6 (36%), 5-7 (14%)

Bowl Possibilities: Gotta be the Fenway Bowl, right?

Clemson (4-4, 2-4)

Games Remaining: Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, UNC, at South Carolina

Possible Records: 8-4 (13% chance), 7-5 (38%), 6-6 (35%), 5-7 (13%), 4-8 (1%)

Bowl Possibilities: Their first step is to get bowl-eligible. If they lose to Notre Dame on Saturday, that is in jeopardy. They would be very attractive for the Gator at 7-5 or the Duke’s Mayo or Sun at 6-6.

Pitt (2-6, 1-3)

Games Remaining: FSU, at Syracuse, BC, at Duke

Possible Records: 6-6 (3%), 5-7 (20%), 4-8 (40%), 3-9 (29%), 2-10 (7%)

Bowl Possibilities: Probably will not be bowl-eligible.

Virginia (2-6, 1-3)

Games Remaining: Georgia Tech, at Louisville, Duke, Virginia Tech

Possible Records: 6-6 (2%), 5-7 (15%), 4-8 (37%), 3-9 (35%), 2-10 (11%)

Bowl Possibilities: Probably will not be bowl-eligible.

Wake Forest (4-4, 1-4)

Games Remaining: at Duke, NC State, at Notre Dame, at Syracuse

Possible Records: 8-4 (1%), 7-5 (13%), 6-6 (35%), 5-7 (37%), 4-8 (13%)

Bowl Possibilities: A tough remaining schedule. I don’t like their chances to get to bowl eligibility. If they do, they could go Military or Pinstripe.

Syracuse (4-4, 0-4)

Games Remaining: BC, Pitt, at Georgia Tech, Wake

Possible Records: 8-4 (7%), 7-5 (27%), 6-6 (38%), 5-7 (23%), 4-8 (5%)

Bowl Possibilities: The wheels appear to be coming off, but the remaining schedule is very favorable. BC game seems like their last stand if they are going to salvage anything from this season. They are a natural for the Pinstripe Bowl, but they went there last year. Possibly Military, or could drop to a Tier 3 if there are enough bowl-eligible teams.

Notre Dame (7-2)

Games Remaining: at Clemson, Wake, at Stanford

Possible Records: 10-2 (46%), 9-3 (43%), 8-4 (10%), 7-5 (1%)

Bowl Possibilities: If they can beat Clemson on Saturday, I predict they will wind up in a New Year’s Six bowl as a 2-loss team. If that doesn’t happen, they will take a spot from an ACC team in the Pop Tarts or Holiday Bowl.

Final Bracket

I’m posting this bracket while the AAC and Big 10 Championship games are still in progress. I wish they would move those earlier in the day. It will be interesting to see what the committee does with Purdue. If Purdue loses, I would move Texas to the top line and drop Purdue to a 2. However, because of the timing of the game, the committee may have to make a final decision before the end of the game. This also impacts Penn State; if they beat Purdue, they deserve to move up to a 9. But again, the committee may not be able to consider that because of timing.

I think Houston is a #1 regardless of the outcome of the AAC game, but if Memphis wins, I would move them up a line and move Miami down.

I’ve spent a lot of time looking at the last few teams and trying to make sense of how the committee might view them. And my final answer is to go with Arizona State as my last team in, for one reason: they have five Quad 1 wins, and not one of them was at home. Their resume has a lot of weaknesses; 5-5 against Quad 2 and a Quad 4 loss is not good, and the computers don’t particularly like them. But when push comes to shove, win quality is more important than any other single factor for the committee, and the Sun Devils have it. I think that will make the difference.

Of course I’m always interested in NC State. Their situation seems to have deteriorated in the past couple of days, probably as the bracketologists reflect on their three losses to Clemson and, consciously or unconsciously, are bothered by the Wolfpack being ahead of the Tigers in the pecking order.

But I still think they’re going to make it. Their 7-4 Quad 2 record is very good, and they have no bad losses. Their wins over Duke, Dayton, Vanderbilt, and Furman have aged well as those teams played well down the stretch.

If you’re watching the Selection Show and you want to know when the moment of truth has arrived, here’s what you do. Get a piece of paper and write down these teams: Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Nevada, Clemson, Pitt. Every time one of them is announced – pay special attention to the 10 and 11 seeds – cross it off. When you’ve crossed off six teams, that’s it. The other three are not going to make it.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold):

Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue
Texas, UCLA, Arizona, Gonzaga
Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Xavier
Tennessee, Kansas State, Duke, San Diego State
Texas A&M, Virginia, Indiana, St. Mary’s
Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Memphis
Miami, Florida Atlantic, Creighton, West Virginia
Arkansas, Utah State, Michigan State, Missouri
Northwestern, Boise State, Auburn, Maryland
Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, USC
Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State
College of Charleston, VCU, Drake, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, Furman
Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont, Grand Canyon
Colgate, Princeton, Montana State, UNC Asheville
Northern Kentucky, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Howard, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern

Last Four Byes: Iowa, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Arizona State

First Four Out: Nevada, Clemson, Pitt, Vanderbilt

Bracket Update 3/11

With one day left until Selection Sunday, most teams’ fate is sealed. I now have 40 locks, five teams that are Probably In, and five teams in competition for the last spot in the field.

I have to admit a couple of mea culpas. One is, I have “de-locked” Providence, which should never happen. Once a team is a lock, they should stay a lock. But Providence has really fallen apart down the stretch and I now think it’s possible, though unlikely, that they could miss the field.

The other is, I’ve added Vanderbilt to the list of bubble teams. When I looked at it last week, I thought they were too far out to possibly get an at-large bid. With their win over Kentucky, that now seems possible.

On to the lists.

Locks (40):

Big 10 (8) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State

Big 12 (7) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State, West Virginia

SEC (7) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Auburn

Big East (4) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (3) – UCLA, Arizona, USC

Mountain West (3) – San Diego State, Boise State, Utah State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Conference USA (1) – Florida Atlantic

Probably In (5):

90% Chance: Rutgers

80% Chance: Mississippi State, NC State

75% Chance: Providence

70% Chance: Oklahoma State

Last Bid:

At this point, there are five teams who could conceivably hear their names called for the last bid: Nevada, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Arizona State, and Pitt. Of the five, only Vanderbilt is still playing. If they win two more games, they are the SEC champions and there is no more debate. Even if they win today against Texas A&M but lose in the final, I think they will get the bid. But let’s assume Vandy loses today. Then I’m going with Clemson, with Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, and Pitt following in that order.

This is a bit of a gut feel pick. My model says that Nevada has the best resume. But they finished the season really poorly and I think the committee will deduct something for that. I also think there has been a groundswell of support for Clemson from various sources in the media, although maybe that’s just my ACC bias, and that may have an impact on the committee. There may also be an element of unconscious sympathy towards the ACC, especially if they are going to leave Pitt out, as I think they will.

Keep in mind that bid stealing is still possible. Vanderbilt could win the SEC tournament, Ohio State is alive in the Big 10 Tournament, and a couple of teams are still alive in the AAC Tournament who could grab that last bid. If there are multiple bid thefts, I think Oklahoma State is the most likely of the Probables to be left out.

Complete Bracket (auto bids in bold, tickets punched underlined):

Kansas, Alabama, Purdue, Houston
UCLA, Texas, Gonzaga, Arizona
Baylor, Marquette, UConn, Tennessee
Xavier, Kansas State, San Diego State, Virginia
Indiana, St. Mary’s, Texas A&M, Duke
Iowa State, Kentucky, TCU, Miami
Michigan State, Creighton, Northwestern, Florida Atlantic
Arkansas, West Virginia, Memphis, Boise State
Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Auburn
Illinois, Iowa, Penn State, USC
Rutgers, Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson
College of Charleston, Drake, VCU, Oral Roberts
Kent State, Iona, Yale, Furman
Louisiana, Kennesaw State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont
Colgate, UNC Asheville, Southern Utah, Montana State
Northern Kentucky, Grambling, Norfolk State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Southeast Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson

Last Four Byes: Penn State, USC, Rutgers, Mississippi State

Last Four In: NC State, Providence, Oklahoma State, Clemson

First Four Out: Vanderbilt, Nevada, Arizona State, Pitt