Bubble Watch 3/3

As we head into the final weekend of the regular season, it’s time to survey the bubble.  Who’s in, who’s out, and who has work to do.

I think the most compelling story is how the committee will handle the ACC.  Will the ACC be graded on the curve, or will they be treated like the seventh-best conference in the country, which they are, according to the NET?  Pitt, North Carolina, Clemson, and arguably NC State are bubble teams.  And if you’re looking at blind resumes without regard to the conference or the name on the front of the jersey, which is what the committee claims to do, I would say that only NC State is in, and that not by much.  Pitt and UNC are right around the cut line, and Clemson is out.  But many of the Bracketology talking heads have NC State and Pitt comfortably in, and Clemson knocking at the door.  It seems they are anticipating that the committee will be influenced by the brand and the historical reputation of the ACC.  We’re getting into the realm of psychology, which is dangerous, but the committee are human, and you know that conversation will happen.  “Are we really going to leave out a team that went 14-6 in the ACC?” It’s a test to see how committed they are to their principles.

Now to the detail.  Let’s remind ourselves of how this works.  There are 68 teams in the tournament.  23 of those bids will come from the tournament champions of one-bid leagues.  That leaves 45 bids, 9 automatic bids and 36 at-large bids, for teams from the nine multi-bid leagues: the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, SEC, American, Mountain West, and West Coast.  I’m going to focus on those 45 spots.  I will put them into three categories: Locks, In for Now, and Bubble Teams.  Locks means just that – they are going to make the tournament no matter what happens the rest of the way.  In for Now are teams that would make the tournament if selections were being made today but are not totally secure due to the possibilities of bad losses, bid stealers, and idiosyncratic decisions by the committee.  Bubble Teams are close to the cut line and have a non-trivial chance to earn an at-large bid. Keep in mind that the number of Bubble Teams who actually receive bids depends on the number of bid stealers.  As a reminder, a bid steal happens when a team from one of the nine multi-bid leagues above who would not otherwise have made it as an at-large wins the conference tournament.  This means that a spot must be made for them, and the result is that the last at-large team in the field gets bumped out. Any team not listed has no chance to earn an at-large bid in my estimation.

Locks (35):

Big 10 (7) – Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois

Big 12 (6) – Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, TCU, Iowa State

SEC (6) – Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri

Big East (5) – UConn, Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence

ACC (3) – Virginia, Miami, Duke

Pac-12 (2) – UCLA, Arizona

Mountain West (2) – San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2) – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

American (2) – Houston, Memphis

Probably the most controversial team here as a Lock is Memphis.  They have only two Quad 1 wins.  However, their 8-3 Quad 2 record is very good.  Since 2016, only two teams with 8+ Quad 2 wins have been left out of the field: Nevada 2017, who had zero Quad 1 wins, and Butler 2019, who had one.  Their last regular season game is against Houston, so it won’t hurt them much even if they lose.  I guess if they got blown out by Houston and lost to, say, SMU in the quarterfinals of the AAC tourney, they would be nervous.  But they would still make it, I think.

In for Now (7):

West Virginia – West Virginia is a tournament team.  I am tempted to make them a Lock.  They have five Quad 1 wins.  Since 2016, there have been 10 teams with 5+ Quad 1 wins who got left out of the field.  All but one of them had 5+ losses to Quads 2/3/4.  WVU has one.  None of them was ranked higher than 38 in the RPI/NET.  WVU is 24.  The only reason I don’t have them as a lock is their overall record.  They could finish 17-15, considering their last game is against Kansas State with the Big 12 tourney to follow.  Since 2016, only one team that was two games over .500 has made it as an at-large (Maryland 2021).  I think the Mountaineers would be the second, but I can’t be sure.  The committee seems to have a line they don’t like to cross.

Auburn – I think the Tigers will get in, but there is precedent for a team like them getting left out.  NC State 2019 was pretty similar – not many Quad 1 wins but good Quad 2 record, not many bad losses, solid NET.  NC State that year was punished for playing a weak non-conference schedule, and Auburn doesn’t have that problem.  Their last regular season game is at home against Tennessee.  That would be an opportunity for them to eliminate all doubt.  They will probably play Mississippi State, Arkansas, or Florida in the SEC Tourney.  If they lose to Tennessee and then lose that game, they’ll be sweating it.  One more win should do it.

USC – They would definitely get in if the tournament started today, but they can’t afford a slip-up.  Texas A&M last year had a very similar resume, and they got left out.  They play Arizona State at home on Saturday, and then they’ll play somebody like Washington State or Utah in the quarters of the Pac-12 Tournament.  Win both of those games, and they’re a lock.  Lose one, they’ll probably make it but it will be tight.  Lose both and they’re probably sunk.

Nevada – They have four Quad 1 wins and a NET of 32.  Nobody has ever been left out with that profile.  The only reason I don’t call them a lock is, they still have the opportunity for a couple of bad losses.  UNLV at home to close the regular season, then maybe San Jose State in the quarters of the Mountain West tournament.  Lose both of those games and they’re in trouble.

Mississippi State – the Bulldogs have four Quad 1 wins, two of which are outstanding – at Arkansas and on a neutral court against Marquette.  That win quality is probably enough to get them in, but they are only 3-2 against Quad 2, so overall they have a 7-9 record against Quads 1&2.  They have a couple of toss-up type games coming up: at Vanderbilt to close the regular season, and then someone from the middle of the SEC pack in the first round of the SEC tournament.  I think if they win one of those games, they’ll be OK.

Rutgers – Rutgers has been alternating bad losses (vs. Nebraska, at Minnesota) with good wins (at Wisconsin, at Penn State) lately.  Life in the Big 10.  They have five Quad 1 wins and a solid NET of 38, which certainly sounds like a tournament team.  Their Achilles’ heel is four Quad 3 losses.  It’s an unusual resume.  It’s hard to find a good comp for them from the past.  Their remaining schedule is similar to Mississippi State: they have a couple of toss-up games coming up, at home against Northwestern and then the first round of the Big 10 Tournament against somebody like Michigan or Michigan State.  But I think their position is a bit more precarious than Mississippi State.  They really need to win one of those games, and both to be completely safe.

NC State – The Wolfpack seem to be safely in according to most of the Bracketology talking heads, but I’m not sure why.  They have only two Quad 1 wins.  That is the ONLY thing separating their resume from North Carolina’s.  If the Tar Heels beat Duke on Saturday, then they are dead even.  Anyway, back to NC State.  Their first round ACC Tournament game will be against Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, or Syracuse.  They need to win it.  If they do, I think they’re OK. Getting to the semifinals would make them totally safe.

Bubble Teams (10):

There are three spots available for this group.  That number goes down with any bid stealers.  However, it could also go up if any of the In for Nows stumble badly.

Pitt – let’s start with the Panthers.  They are the case study for whether the committee will give the ACC a boost.  They have four Quad 1 wins, but none of those is a so-called Quad 1A win.  Their Quad 2 record is only 3-4, and the have two bad losses.  Their NET is mediocre.  The only reason I can come up with that the talking heads have them in is, they can’t believe the committee will leave out a team that is 14-5 in the ACC.  And maybe they’re right.  The winning record against Quad 1 is a major point in their favor.  They play at Miami this weekend.  A win there would clinch it.  If they lose that game, they really need to win the ACC quarterfinal, and they need that to be a Quad 1 win, which means Duke, NC State, or North Carolina.  Beating Clemson doesn’t help them as much.  Bottom line is, if they don’t get another Quad 1 win, I think they will be left out.

North Carolina – I think the Tar Heels are in a similar boat to Pitt.  They need another Quad 1 win.  It could be against Duke on Saturday, or it could be in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament.  I think their position is slightly weaker than Pitt’s; I’m not convinced that one Quad 1 win is enough, and it may depend on bid stealers and what the other bubble teams do.  They need two more Quad 1 wins to be safe.

Penn State – the Lions got a huge win on Wednesday at Northwestern, their fourth Quad 1.  That is solid, but like Pitt, the rest of their resume is underwhelming.  In fact, their resume is very much like Pitt’s.  They need to beat Maryland at home on Sunday and win their first round game in the Big 10 Tournament.  That’s the minimum.  They may need to get to the semis of the tournament.

Oklahoma State – a slightly worse version of West Virginia.  Five Quad 1 wins, but an awful lot of losses, including their last five, and nothing like West Virginia’s impressive non-conference performance.  Being in the Big 12, they’ll have plenty of opportunities to impress the committee.  Between their last regular season game at Texas Tech and the Big 12 Tournament, they need two wins to be safe.  No team with seven Quad 1 wins has ever been left out.  If they were to beat Texas Tech and lose in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, that would be interesting; they would have six Quad 1 wins, which historically is close to a guarantee, but their overall record would be 17-15.  With the late season slide, I don’t think it would be good enough.

Wisconsin – the Badgers are difficult to get a read on.  They have six Quad 1 wins.  Only three teams with six Q1s have been left out since 2016.  However, for some reason the NET thinks they are terrible at number 77.  The lowest ranked NET team ever to get an at-large was Rutgers last year, and they were, guess what, 77.  It’s hard to know what to do with all of that.  One thing is for sure: they can’t lose to Minnesota on Sunday.  My sense is, if they beat Minnesota and score a Quad 1 win in the Big 10 Tournament, they’ll make it; otherwise, they probably won’t.

Arizona State – similar to Wisconsin.  Poor NET, poor record against Quad 2, relying on their Quad 1 record, which includes four wins overall including a neutral court win over Creighton and a really impressive win at Arizona.  Some bracketologists have them in right now.  I don’t.  Winning at USC on Saturday would help a lot, plus a quarterfinal win in the tournament.  Otherwise they need a run to the Pac-12 final.

Michigan – now we’re getting to the deep cuts.  Michigan is almost certainly not in right now.  What do they have to do to win their way in?  Winning at Indiana on Sunday would be a great start, and might just be enough depending on what else happens.  Most likely, though, they need two more Quad 1 wins.  Either Indiana and the tournament quarterfinal, or getting to the Big 10 Tournament final.

Oregon – the *really* deep cuts.  Oregon, just maybe, if they get to the Pac-12 final.  Even then, I doubt it, but say they beat Arizona State in the quarters and UCLA in the semis?  I guess that could be enough if things break their way.

Clemson – Clemson’s four bad losses really kill them.  Let’s say they beat Duke or NC State in the quarters and Virginia or Miami in the semis?  Similar to Oregon, that might be enough.  Anything short of that will not be unless the committee has a real soft spot for the ACC.

Texas Tech – why do I have them on here?  Because they play in the Big 12.  Practically every game is a Quad 1.  If they beat Oklahoma State to close the regular season, then beat, say, West Virginia, Kansas, and Texas to reach the Big 12 tournament final?  Yeah, they would make it.  I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance it will happen, but I can’t rule it out.