Mudville Analytics

Record: 26-5, 9-3 (1st place)
ACC Tournament: Won
NCAA Tournament: Lost in national semifinal
Final AP Ranking: 2
All-ACC Players: Bob McAdoo (1st), Dennis Wuycik (1st), Bill Chamberlain (2nd), George Karl (2nd)
All-Americans: Bob McAdoo (1st)

Carolina had experienced a slight dip since their incredible three-year run from 1967 to 1969. The 1970 team, led by All-American Charlie Scott, ended up being somewhat disappointing. The 1971 team didn’t have any big stars, but Dean coached ’em up and they wound up having a much better season than expected, winning the regular season and the NIT championship – back when that meant something.

Despite the loss of South Carolina, the league on balance was getting stronger at this time. Maryland was on the rise under Lefty Driesell, Virginia had their best teams ever behind standout Barry Parkhill, NC State was starting to put together that mid-1970s juggernaut, Duke was hanging onto a little bit of post-Vic Bubas strength, and Tates Locke had something going at Clemson.

North Carolina had to replace two key players from the previous year, and the only impact player coming up from the freshman team was Bobby Jones. They needed another piece, and that piece was Bob McAdoo. The Greensboro native had played two years at Vincennes Junior College in Indiana. He was famously the only junior college player Dean Smith ever signed. He fit in perfectly, giving the Tar Heels the interior scoring and rebounding presence they needed.

But it wasn’t all McAdoo. Dennis Wuycik was a tremendous player who earned first team All-ACC honors. Bill Chamberlain and George Karl made it onto the second team. Steve Previs was a pass-first point guard who made things go, and Jones provided great defense, rebounding, and 67% shooting.

After an early season loss at Princeton, they turned it on. There were but three more regular season losses, all on the road, by a total of five points. The Tar Heels faced second seed Maryland in the ACC Tournament final. The Terps were a program on the rise, led by sophomore big men Tom McMillen and Len Elmore. But the Tar Heels’ balance was too much.

As luck would have it, Carolina’s first NCAA Tournament game would be in the round of 16 against… South Carolina. These two teams had gone toe-to-toe the previous two seasons in the ACC, and the Tar Heels still had a bitter taste in their mouths about the Gamecocks’ 52-51 ACC Tournament title win the previous season. South Carolina was still formidable, but with John Roche and Tom Owens gone, they were no match for the Tar Heels.

Next up was the Chuck Daly-coached and third-ranked Penn Quakers. With McAdoo, Wuycik, and Karl leading the way, Carolina pulled away in the second half for a 73-59 victory.

The end came in the Final Four against Florida State. It was the Seminoles’ first and still only appearance in the Final Four. McAdoo was terrific, but the rest of the group was a little off, and FSU held on for a 79-75 win. (Fun fact: Florida State was coached by Hugh Durham. Durham made the Final Four one other time in his career with the 1983 Georgia Bulldogs, who defeated the Tar Heels in the regional final before losing to NC State in the Final Four. So both of Durham’s Final Four teams upset a Dean Smith-coached Carolina team, then lost the next game.)

This was a great offensive team. They are one of only 14 teams in ACC history to average 89+ points per game. They set the ACC record for FG% in a season at 52.8% (later broken by 1975 Maryland). And they are one of only two teams since 1970 (1990 Duke is the other) to average more than 30 free throw attempts per game.

At this point in Dean Smith’s career, he had been to four NCAA Tournaments. In each of those tournaments, the Tar Heels as ACC champions received a bye into the round of 16, which meant they had to win two games to win the region and advance to the Final Four. In those first four tournaments, they won all eight of those games and made the Final Four all four times. In the process, here are the teams they beat:

• 1967: #5 Princeton and #9 Boston College
• 1968: #3 St. Bonaventure and #8 Davidson
• 1969: #9 Duquesne and #5 Davidson
• 1972: #6 South Carolina and #3 Penn

That’s pretty good, huh? Eight NCAA regional games against Top 10 opponents, 8-0 record, four Final Fours?

Record: 27-5, 12-2 (1st place)
ACC Tournament: Won
NCAA Tournament: Lost in national semifinal
Final AP Ranking: 4
All-ACC Players: Charlie Scott (1st), Bill Bunting (1st), Dick Grubar (2nd)
All-Americans: Charlie Scott (2nd)

This was the third of three straight ACC Championship and Final Four teams at North Carolina. Larry Miller was gone, but the Tar Heels still had Charlie Scott, and they had three outstanding seniors in Rusty Clark, Dick Grubar, and Bill Bunting.

This trio isn’t as well known as they ought to be. They never lost an ACC Tournament game; they won the ACC regular season three times; at no time was any of their teams ranked outside the Top 10; and they reached the Final Four three times. Each of the three made All-ACC once. They were overshadowed to some degree by two all-time greats in Miller and Scott, but they were special players in their own right.

This team rolled along like a machine. They started the year ranked second in the polls and never dropped below fourth. A narrow loss to St. John’s at Madison Square Garden, a two-point game against South Carolina, and a loss to Duke in Vic Bubas’ last home game at Cameron were the only blemishes on a 22-3 regular season.

The ACC Tournament is remembered for Charlie Scott‘s 40-point game in the final against Duke. It was right up there with Randolph Childress 1995 as one of the all-time great performances in a tournament final. The other significant event in the tournament was an injury to Grubar that would keep him out of the NCAA Tournament. This meant more time for Eddie Fogler, Jim Delany (the same Jim Delany who was later commissioner of the Big Ten), and Gerald Tuttle.

On to the East Region in the NCAA Tournament. UNC as the ACC champion received a bye into the regional semifinals and a matchup with #9 Duquesne, where the Tar Heels survived a second-half Dukes comeback to eke out a one-point win. Next up was fifth-ranked Davidson in a rematch of the regional final from the prior year, won narrowly by the Tar Heels. This year’s Wildcats had beaten four ACC teams during the regular season in what turned out to be Lefty Driesell’s last season before taking the Maryland job. It was a thrilling, high scoring, back-and-forth game. In the end, there was a little too much Charlie Scott. The New York junior scored a game-high 32 and sank the decisive jumper with two seconds left. It was an especially bitter pill for Driesell, who had recruited Scott hard and was thought to have the inside track before a late push by Dean Smith convinced Scott to come to Chapel Hill.

In the Final Four, Carolina faced sixth-ranked Purdue, led by first team All-American Rick Mount. This is where Grubar’s absence finally caught up with the Tar Heels. Purdue’s backcourt of Mount and Bill Keller dominated Fogler and Tuttle, outscoring them 56-6 and forcing them into 12 turnovers. The Boilermakers pulled away in the second half to a 92-65 victory.

This team played fast. Their average of 89 points per game still ranks in the top 20 all-time in the ACC. They set league records for total field goals made (later broken by 1973 UNC) and field goals per game (later broken by 1973 NC State).

With Grubar injured, there was a built-in excuse to fail to make it to another Final Four. But they found a way, capping off an unmatched three-year run. No other ACC program has ever had a three-year stretch of winning the regular season, winning the tournament, and making the Final Four.

Record: 31-6, 13-3 (1st place)
ACC Tournament: Won
NCAA Tournament: Lost in national semifinal
Final AP Ranking: 6
All-ACC Players: Chris Duhon (1st), JJ Redick (2nd), Shelden Williams (2nd), Luol Deng (3rd)
All-Americans: None

These Duke teams are starting to run together. But this edition was really good. They had balanced scoring with all five starters (JJ Redick, Luol Deng, Shelden Williams, Chris Duhon, and Daniel Ewing) averaging double figures. This was the sophomore version of Redick and Williams – good, but not as good as they would be later. Duhon was the point guard, the spiritual and defensive leader, and the energy guy (Jay Williams said of Duhon “it was like he drank a million Red Bulls”). Off the bench the Blue Devils featured sophomores Shavlik Randolph and Sean Dockery.

The Blue Devils were the nation’s best team according to kenpom. They did it on both ends, featuring the second-most efficient offense and third best defense. If they had a weakness, it was defensive rebounding. In fact, one of the themes of the Redick-Williams era Duke teams was their poor defensive rebounding. Williams himself was a great rebounder, but nobody else was. They never really found that second big man, and that would eventually come back to haunt them.

They stumbled early in a loss to Purdue, then proceeded to win 18 straight, ascending to the top of the AP poll. The ACC that year was absolutely brutal, with seven out of nine teams ranked in kenpom’s Top 30. Eventually the Blue Devils had to lose a few, and they did. But they won the regular season title by two full games and finished 25-4 and ranked fifth in the polls.

Duke had absolutely dominated the ACC Tournament in the previous five years or so. This time, it was someone else’s turn, and that someone was Gary Williams and Maryland. Led by tournament MVP John Gilchrist, the Terrapins defeated 15th-ranked Wake Forest, 17th-ranked NC State (overcoming a 19-point halftime deficit), and fifth-ranked Duke in consecutive games to bring home Williams’ first and only title.

Duke was the top seed in the Atlanta region. They survived two tough regional games against Illinois (essentially the same team that would reach the national championship game the following year) and Xavier. In the Final Four, it was a battle royal with the UConn Huskies. This game is remembered for Emeka Okafor going off in the second half as literally all of Duke’s big men – Williams, Randolph, and seldom-used Nick Horvath – fouled out after playing a total of 41 minutes among the three of them, prompting K to tell one of the officials, “You cheated us.” Incidentally, it’s also remembered as one of the worst “bad beats” of all time, as Duhon banked in a 3-pointer as time expired to flip the point spread.

We all know about one-and-done, but I had forgotten exactly when the NBA stopped taking high school players, which forced the one-and-done situation that we still live with today. The answer is 2006. Deng played before that rule was in place. As the second-ranked recruit (after Lebron James) in the high school class of 2003, he could have gone straight to the NBA from high school, but he chose to come to college, and then he chose to leave after a year. It’s hard not to play the what if game with Deng. Of course there are 100 players you could do that with, but Deng and Corey Maggette are different because they did it when it was rare and before the rule was in place. You have to think that one of those 2005-6 Redick/Williams teams that both had disappointing endings may have had a different outcome.

Record: 33-7, 14-4 (1st place)
ACC Tournament: Won
NCAA Tournament: Lost in national final
Final AP Ranking: 3
All-ACC Players: Brice Johnson (1st)
All-Americans: Brice Johnson (1st)

This team did something that seems impossible in modern basketball: they were a great offensive team but a poor three-point shooting team. They were last in the ACC in three-pointers made per game. They were third-to-last in three-point FG%. I looked back at the most efficient offenses in the country over the last 20 years according to kenpom, and I have no hesitation in saying that this team is the worst three-point shooting team of that group. But they were the most efficient offense in the country in 2016. How did they do it? Three things: 1) they absolutely dominated the offensive glass; 2) they took care of the ball; and 3) they were incredibly efficient on two-point shots.

That frontcourt. Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson, Isaiah Hicks, and Kennedy Meeks. This group collectively made 689 two-point shots, converting at a 58% clip. Johnson had just an unbelievable year – 17 points per game on 61% shooting, 78% from the line, one of the best rebounders in the country, Top 10 in the league in steals, Top 10 in blocks. Kenpom rated him as the best player in the country that year, just ahead of the actual ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon. I don’t know who was better and I have nothing negative to say about Brogdon – but Johnson was really good.

Marcus Paige and Joel Berry were terrific in the backcourt as well. Paige’s numbers went down over the course of his career, but if you look at it, it’s due to the fact that it wasn’t until 2016 that Carolina had another guard. Prior to that year, his backcourt mates had been Leslie McDonald and Nate Britt. When Berry emerged in 2016, Paige finally had that complementary player, and while it took away from his numbers a bit, it worked out beautifully for the team.

There was a puzzling early season loss at Northern Iowa – I assume that was the “homecoming game” for Marcus Paige – and a couple other shaky moments. But the Tar Heels closed the regular season with a resounding win in Cameron Indoor and were ready for the ACC Tournament.

I always got the feeling that Roy Williams was annoyed by the existence of the ACC Tournament, but once he got there, the competitive juices started flowing and he wanted to win as badly as anybody. This was a tournament that more or less followed the script. Carolina and Virginia were the two best teams with the two best players, and they squared off for the championship. The only regular season meeting had been won by the Cavaliers on their home court just two weeks earlier.

It was a tense, tight affair. Virginia maintained a slim lead for most of the game until a 15-2 run by the Tar Heels starting about midway through the second half turned a four-point deficit into a nine-point lead. Virginia cut it back to three, but couldn’t get any closer. It was kind of a turn-the-tables game in that it was Virginia who dominated the glass but couldn’t make a shot. Brogdon was outplayed by Joel Berry, who was rewarded with the Everett Case Award as the tournament MVP.

The Tar Heels earned the top seed in the East region. As NCAA tournaments go, they had a pretty easy time of it. There was really no point in any game prior to the final where they were in danger of losing. I don’t think they ever trailed in the second half of any game. They had a relatively easy path. The #2 and #3 seeds in their region lost, so as a result their regional final matchup was against Notre Dame, a team they had just beaten by 31 in the ACC Tournament. Their national semifinal opponent was surprise Midwest region winner Syracuse, who had taken down Virginia in that regional final.

But their luck with easy opponents ran out in the final. Villanova was the best team in the country and had been all year. It was a classic final between the two best teams. Carolina played a terrific game and came up three points short. Brice Johnson, by the way, had a better tournament than Most Outstanding Player Ryan Arcidiacono. Had it not been for the modern convention that the MOP always comes from the champion, Johnson would have been the easy choice.

Behind Johnson, this was an extraordinarily balanced team. It’s one of the few teams in my Top 50 that doesn’t have an individual player in my ACC Top 100. Nobody else averaged as much as 13 points, 6 rebounds, or 4 assists. But the top five players behind Johnson – Paige, Berry, Hicks, Meeks, and Jackson – were all very good players. Nate Britt and Theo Pinson gave them good minutes off the bench. It was a team where guys accepted their roles and embraced a certain style of play, and it worked.

UNC Offensive Rebound % Under Roy Williams, National Ranking Among D1 Teams (ACC Ranking in parentheses):

Of Roy Williams’ 18 Carolina teams, 10 of them were the best offensive rebounding team in the ACC, none was worse than third, and none was worse than 21st nationally except the forgettable 2013 team. That does not happen by accident. A remarkable record.

• 2004 – 11 (2)
• 2005 – 15 (2)
• 2006 – 9 (1)
• 2007 – 9 (2)
• 2008 – 1 (1)
• 2009 – 21 (3)
• 2010 – 16 (3)
• 2011 – 21 (1)
• 2012 – 10 (1)
• 2013 – 77 (3)
• 2014 – 13 (1)
• 2015 – 5 (1)
• 2016 – 3 (1)
• 2017 – 1 (1)
• 2018 – 3 (2)
• 2019 – 16 (3)
• 2020 – 12 (1)
• 2021 – 1 (1)

Record: 32-5, 13-3 (2nd place)
ACC Tournament: Won
NCAA Tournament: Lost in Sweet 16
Final AP Ranking: 3
All-ACC Players: Nolan Smith (ACC POY), Kyle Singler (1st)
All-Americans: Nolan Smith (1st)

The Kyrie Irving year. Duke was coming off a national championship, and going into 2011, there were two holes to plug. The first was replacing Jon Scheyer, and there the Blue Devils had several options, all of them good. Kyrie Irving was the consensus #2 recruit in the country behind UNC’s Harrison Barnes. Seth Curry was an impact transfer who had averaged 20 points per game as a freshman at Liberty. And sophomore Andre Dawkins had played well in limited minutes in 2010.

The second hole was on the interior. Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek had graduated. Neither got a lot of ink, but they played vital roles on the championship team, anchoring the interior of one of the best defenses in the country and grabbing a ton of offensive rebounds. There, the plan was replacement by committee with Ryan Kelly and the Plumlee brothers getting more playing time.

So it was yet another Duke team stacked with blue chippers. Despite losing Irving to a toe injury in the eighth game, the Blue Devils went undefeated at home on their way to a 27-4 regular season record. Still without Irving, they had one of the most dominant ACC Tournaments ever, winning every game by at least 14 points. At 30-4, Duke traveled to the West region as the top seed.

Perhaps their second round game against eighth-seeded Michigan should have been a warning. The Blue Devils led all the way, but Michigan cut the lead to one inside two minutes, and it was all Duke could do to hang on for the two-point win. The Wolverines shot 51% for the game.

Next up was Arizona, a tough draw for a game in Anaheim. The Blue Devils started well, but their defense in the second half completely fell apart. The final margin was 16. It was a disappointing ending for a team that had a tremendous year.

This was a really good team, but compared to the championship team from the year before, the biggest difference was that interior toughness and rebounding. The 2010 team with Thomas and Zoubek was one of the best rebounding teams in the country; the 2011 team took a step back in that regard on both ends of the court. The 2011 team was actually a better shooting team, but their offensive efficiency went down because there weren’t nearly as good on the offensive glass.

The other interesting storyline was Irving – his game, his injury, his absence, his return, and how all that affected the team. Coach K knew what he had; Irving was a Day 1 starter and showed immediately that he was ready. In his seventh college game, he scored 31 to lead the Blue Devils to a big win over Michigan State. But in the very next game, Irving sustained the toe injury that would keep him out for the rest of the season until the NCAA Tournament.

This meant more playing time for Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins and more scoring responsibility for Nolan Smith. That Duke went on to have such a great year says volumes about how they stepped up, but you have to wonder how the team would have developed differently with a healthy Irving all year. Based on his first eight games, he was playing at a first team All-ACC level. He would have been one of the all-time great freshmen in the ACC, possibly the country.

Irving’s return for the NCAA Tournament must have been challenging for the coaching staff. Duke had played 26 games without him. It’s certainly a good problem to have, adding such an incredible talent to a team that was already one of the best in the country. And there was really no decision about whether to play him; he’s too good. You can’t not play him. On the other hand, how do you integrate him into the team without disrupting everything? K chose to bring him off the bench. Seth Curry lost minutes to Irving and was ultimately a non-factor in the games against Michigan and Arizona. And you know Duke’s team defense must have been affected by trying to reincorporate Irving.

But I’m dwelling too much on what this team didn’t accomplish rather than what they did. With or without Irving, they went 32-5, were ranked #1 most of the year, and dominated the ACC Tournament. They earned their spot in the Top 50.

“[Kyrie Irving will] be like, ‘Get out of the way, I’ve got it,'” [Nolan] Smith said. “You don’t really hear that too often, when a freshman will tell two seniors on the wings to get out of the way. We have no problem letting him do it.” – from the AP write-up of Duke’s win over Michigan State, December 2, 2010